October 24, 2005

Earthquake and Aftermath : Analysis of Pakistans policy towards India

This earthquake could have a number of unpredictable consequences. So I'd suggest that we prepare ourselves for various possibilities.

So far, three things are clear from the aftermath:

1) Pakistan's hatred for Hindus and India remains as obsessive and pathological as ever.

2) The Pakistani military has proved to be thoroughly incompetent at actual governance, and its prestige has taken a serious, possibly fatal, blow.

3) The Jihadi groups have spared no time in exploiting the incident to promote themselves and to recruit more terrorists.

Taking these three factors together, we can expect the following:

1) An increasingly shaky Paki regime increases its anti-India activities, in the hope that this will divert attention from its own failings, and will draw off militants who would otherwise attempt a coup d'etat. Such militants will also be sent into Afghanistan.

2) Mush and Co. will call on the Americans to pressure India to make more concessions - claiming that their increasingly weak domestic position makes a foreign policy victory essential. We all know what the American stance on Indo-Pak relations is.

3) With Kashmir now saturated with Paki militants, the next wave of terrorism will probably involve Indian muslims in the rest of Bharat. The Mau riots should be seen in this context.

Will the current Congress (I) be capable of dealing with these challenges? Sorry, a very stupid question - it is certain to cave in unless a strong opposition forces it into a position where it has to hold strong.

So we have to get prepared. In particular:

1) The BJP has to reject and renounce the idiotic peace policy of Vajpayee and demand action against Pak. It must not hesitate to label the UPA and its leaders as 'traitors', and 'Paki-loving criminals' wherever possible. The UPA must be forced to behave in a patriotic manner, (so far, it has not done so in most cases.)

2) The NDA has to raise the alarm about the Pakistani influence on Indian muslims; our intelligence agencies have to monitor this area carefully and calmly. There is every reason to believe that a new wave of riots are being planned.

3) We must prepare to resist U.S. pressure on concessions to Pak. And we must face up to the possibility of the Musharraf regime imploding - and consider how our interests can be best promoted in the current volatile climate. Above all, that involves preparing the Indian Army for military operations - and yes, war.

This earthquake could have some far-reaching effects on Bharatvarsha. If we prepare in advance, we can make them work to our advantage. My own feeling is that this is the beginning of the end of the Musharraf regime.

If we make the right moves, it will also be the beginning of the end of Pakistan.

No comments: