October 22, 2005

Temple beefs up security after terrorist organization Anjuman Deendar threat

http://www.newindpress.com/NewsItems.asp?
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e=Southern+News+-+Karnataka&Topic=0

Sunday October 23 2005 11:37 IST

KOLLUR: Following the threat issued by the Anjuman Deendar, the Kollur Sri Mookambika Temple management has taken every possible step to ensure the security of the temple and its devotees who come from various parts of the country, said temple administrative officer and deputy commissioner T Shyam Bhat.

The management has also requested the police to advise them about the security arrangements that should be made.

Bhat said: “We have also written to the Department of Religious Endowment, Bangalore, requesting it to approve the bills for security equipment such as metal detectors, close circuit TV, which have yet to be purchased from the temple funds.”

“The Department has agreed in principle to approve our proposal and we will install the internal security equipment soon,” he added. The genuineness of the threat mail received the Anjuman Deendar was yet to be ascertained, he said.

The Udupi district police have already beefed up security at the temple in the wake of the threat from the Anjuman and also from Naxalite groups.

Why does Pakistan need a huge number of F-16s?

First America said Pakistan will get 25 F-16s as a gift; then the number was raised to 40; and now looks like Pakistan will get 80 F-16s!!

Why so many? For what?

To fight the Al Qaeda?!



http://www.expressindia.com/
fullstory.php?newsid=57052

EXPRESS INDIA

Turbulence ahead: Pak F-16s next week

C RAJA MOHAN

Posted online: Saturday, October 22, 2005 at 0444 hours IST

New Delhi, October 21: Despite the tall talk on de-hyphenating US relations with India and Pakistan, the impending American sale(to be announced next week) of 80 F-16s to Pakistan has begun to cast a shadow over the Indo-US regional security dialogue which is being held tomorrow.

There’s growing concern on the Indian side that US tactical interests in Pakistan might begin to overwhelm the proclaimed long-term American commitment to build a strategic partnership with India.

As they survey the Asian security scenarios tomorrow, the challenge for Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran and US Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns is to begin a frank discussion on Pakistan—a country in which both have huge stakes.

Unless they begin to sort out the fundamentals on where their interests in Islamabad overlap and how the differences ought to be managed, Pakistan might once again trump the prospect of a productive Indo-US relationship.

The only exception to the growing convergence of Indian and American interests in South Asia appears to be Pakistan. Pointing to the new convergence in a speech at New York’s Asia Society last Tuesday, Burns pointed to the ‘‘close consultations on regional issues, such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal.’’
‘‘In each of these states, we share with India the basic recognition that the best path to development and peace is a democratic one,’’ Burns added. Nevertheless, this ‘‘active and productive dialogue’’ does not appear to include a serious conversation on Pakistan and its future.

It is easy for Washington to say its military ties with Islamabad should not and would not affect ties with New Delhi. India could similarly say its ties with Iran should not come in the way of Indo-US partnership.

The logic of de-hyphenation sounds good in theory. However, there is no way of ignoring the Pakistan factor in thinking about Indo-US relations.

It appears that the Bush Administration has made up its mind on selling 80 F-16s to Pakistan. It is a matter of time before the US Congress considers and approves the Administration’s request.

While some in the Indian establishment continue to look at the F-16 sale in terms of air balance with the Western neighbour, the real problem for India lies in its long-term political rather than military implications.

Indian officials are certainly not blind to the new American interests in Pakistan—from the imperatives of the war on terror to management of the unstable neighbourhood in Afghanistan and Iran.

However, if the US sells Pakistan military equipment like F-16s, which have no bearing on the war on terror, India’s focus will have to inevitably turn to the prospect of a long-term US military relationship with Pakistan that might not take into account India’s sensitivities.

Worse still, such a relationship could destabilise not only the peace process between India and Pakistan but also the potential for a strong future military relationship between New Delhi and Washington.

Equally troubling is the trend line in which Washington seems to offer extraordinary political slack to Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf while putting India to a loyalty test on Iran.

The fact that Pakistan’s abstention on the Iran issue at the International Atomic Energy Agency last month has met little criticism in Washington has not gone unnoticed in New Delhi.

While India’s vote with the European resolution has been appreciated, voices in the US Congress have insisted that India be examined again when the Iran’s non-proliferation comes up for renewed debate at Vienna next month.

India’s vote next time around would depend on the merits of the diplomatic circumstances and the state of nuclear diplomacy with Iran. However, New Delhi is disconcerted by any suggestion that links its vote on the Iran issue with the prospect of civilian nuclear cooperation with the US that is dangling in the air.

Kashmir :Timely action can prevent from impending political implications

Timely action can prevent from impending political implications of aftermath of earthquake.



As region of South Asia in has witness the deadliest earthquake of history that hit hard Pakistan administered Kashmir, killed over the hundred thousands dead, left more than sixty thousands injured and rendered millions homeless. The mountainous Himalayan region of Kashmir that was badly affected where alone death toll may be not less than hundred thousands and million homeless among them thousands are yet not accessible, and are without shelter, food, medicine and blanket after two weeks of earthquake. As UN aid program coordinator in the region and Secretary General Kofi Annan have warned the international community that more people may die than those died in the earthquake if immediate arrangements were not made to provide them adequate shelter, food, medicine and warm clothings. As cold weather has already set in and harsh weather is around the corner that is putting millions of homeless people’s lives at greater risk.



After almost two weeks of earthquake Pakistan government and international aid relief agencies couldn’t reach to the many Areas and affectees. As rescue teams have abandoned their operations in many villages having declared them graveyard and told the people to put the barbed wires around to close it. While people on the mountains are not receiving relief yet, and cold weather is already touching freezing point at night that has caused hundred of deaths already according to the media. The temporary arrangements may not help to survivors in harsh cold weather which is already approaching to the Himalayan mountains and people are yet without shelters, healthcare and food.





These are those aspects of earthquake which survivors are presently facing but there are other hidden aspects of the earthquake could have long term political and social implications on the region and society if necessary measures were taken and arrangements made on priority basis to prevent from happening. As Pakistan and its administered Kashmir, which were already facing economic, social and political crisis since extremist forces yet active and strong despite government’s half hearted attempts to show outside world. And military domination in political affairs and absence of major political leadership causes political instability that benefits religious forces.



As reports regarding the abuse of aid goods are appearing in the media and relief goods are being sold on the stores while homeless and injured people still waiting to get aid relief. The lack of coordination between military personals administrating the relief activities, and civil and local administration which was sidelined by the military team is undermining the coordinated efforts to reach out the affected Areas and People. The military relief operation teams are not familiar with the people, Areas and affectees and interrupting local administration from performing its duties that is causing disorder in aid operations. The military is taking solo flight in political and reconstruction affairs.



The other issue of immediate nature is thousands of widows, girls and orphans those are vulnerable if proper arrangements were not made to protect them from falling into the wrong hands. As reports regarding the child and women abductions are already pouring in and many cases have been reported since criminals and sex traders have become active to abduct these helpless women and children. The government is either not receptive or beyond their capacity to manage that demands the involvement of international NGOs to protect these vulnurables and affectees immediately otherwise in this chaos such criminal can easily mange to abuse the victims.



While the other immediate issues of rehabilitation and reconstruction are very important as entire infrastructure and houses have destroyed from these affected Areas and rendered majority of people to destitution. As schools, colleges and hospitals have completely destroyed and reconstruction may take years to rebuild. And failure to provide immediate and free education to these destitute, hopeless people, facing economic, social, psychological and political crisis could further be disastrous. And ultimately people would be left with no option except to join the religious schools where education, food and shelter are provided free. The substitute this time will be madderssas and religious forces are going to attract the vast majority of affectees and other population politically as well. As earthquake has not crippled the people economically forced to destitution but psychologically they are more succeptble and prone to accept the religious interpretation of such disaster since majority is uneducated and backward. And such natural calamities and disasters are widely contributing in cultivating minds of people to seek answer of their troubles heavenly than rationally. And weak, unpopular and unelected governments always tend not to provide people rational answer to take blame of their failures but attribute such disasters with god’s will to secure and cling to the power.



As politically motivated religious forces are aggressively using this human crisis into a political opportunity not only by providing them aid relief but also telling them that natural disasters are result our sins and god’s anger, and its salvation lies only in seeking god’s pleasure by joining them and abandoning the world’s leisure. Even many religious people have propagated that earthquake was kind of punishment to Pakistani rulers to side with America and to turn back on the Talban. While ongoing Indo-Pak hostility and violence in Indian administered Kashmir will largely be used to motivate these parents, students and children to turn them into the political Jihad to compensate their past sins, and may appeal to majority of the devastated and frightened people.



While government seem to be less concerned with its implications and more eager to cling to the power and sideline the elected people, major political leadership and parties and putting once again the military brass on the top of every aid, reconstruction and rehabilitation related important issues. And completely neglecting the elected representatives from involving or consulting to this huge task to which no general alone can meet.

They do not seem serious to build political consensus to mitigate the possible future political implications and do not let this human crisis be turn into the opportunity to extremist forces which are already in the race once again to recruit people in the name of relief and help. Government will dismiss and deny all such newses as they were denying in the past but time won’t wait until timely action is taken to prevent these things from happening. So what immediately needed is to make arrangements to provide easy access to these devastated children and school students to restore their normal activities and studies in fear free environment.



The government of Pakistan should introduce TV programs that initiate debate and discussion to provide people in-depth knowledge regarding the causes of these natural disasters and how they happen and what measures can be taken to minimize the human and other losses in future. As Japan probably is such country where earthquakes often take place and Japan government has designed quake proof construction to sustain these jolts and it did. Media in Pakistan can play better role to educate the people and help the victims to coup the situation and also help to save these children, women from getting into the wrong hands.



The involvement of major political leadership and parties those can involve people and educate people than leaving them completely in the hands of religious forces. The continued attempt to marginalize the major political parties will ultimately benefit the religious school of thought and especially after this magnitude of destruction and deaths people have encountered are likely to see their salvation into religious interpretation.



The peace process and activities with India should be increased and broaden to mitigate the political impacts of disaster and government failure to provide timely relief and rescue operations that has caused anger toward the government. The government of Pakistan attempt to use anti-India bashing to divert attention from internal crisis is also going to work in favour of religious forces, and peace opportunity can make greater impact on the people and region at this movement.

Similarly, reconstruction opportunity and funds need to use to modernize infrastructure, education and communication to equip people with the modern eduaction.



International Media, governments and NGO’s can play better and greater role in making these things happen and possible in Pakistan and its administrered Kashmir.


Mumtaz Khan

Vice Chair International Kashmir Alliance-IKA



880 Ellesmere Road Suite# 201 A
Toronto M1P 1W6 Toronto
Ph: 416 297 8375
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AMRITA UNIVERSITY, a Deemed University

AMRITA UNIVERSITY, a Deemed University designed to provide the best higher education has transformed University Education in India so radically that it has received respect and acclaim from the professional community around the world. The Amrita University inspired by Mata Amritananda Mai has transformed higher education with spiritual values and has been providing quality value based education for several years. Hindus and non-hindus have been attracted to the university for its quality, professionalism and value based higher learning. Hostile forces inimical to value based higher education have been creating obstacles ever since Amma introduced value basededucation.

Several vested interest groups and Communist party have been trying to discredit and marginalize Amrita University ever since Amrita University attracted students and faculty from around the world. For several years, Communist media and pseudo secular intellectuals have been making inflammatory accusations to create a negative image of the esteemed center for higher education. Now Communist Party aligned with the Central Congress government is trying to force the central government to withdraw Deemed University status of Amrita University.

This will enable the Christian/Muslim led government in kerala to interfere with the daily operation of the Amrita University. Several professional colleges including the medical college will become under the purview of Kerala government. They may interfere, disrupt, undermine and subvert value based education and dismantle the university system formed by the divine inspiration of Amma.. It is time for hindus around the world to wake up and thwart the destruction of our sacred University established by Mata Amritananda mai. Hindus need to unite and stop this chaos, disorder, and political manipulation by atheist anti-national Communist party and their fellow travelers.

Dr.Babu Suseelan

Analysis:Going, going, gone to China

By ROLAND FLAMINI
UPI Chief International Correspondent

WASHINGTON, Oct. 21 (UPI) -- China's new affluent class has discovered the joys of auction houses. This year, sales at China's 10 leading auction houses topped $1 billion: up from $100 million in 2000, according to published figures. First time buyers are snapping up everything from Chinese contemporary paintings to Western antiques, but the main quest is for objects and art from China itself. Drawn by the booming market, Christie's, the international auction house, this week became the first Western auction house to announce that it was setting up a sales operation in Beijing.

What Chairman Mao would have thought of this growing capitalist trend is not hard to imagine. But one of the sculptures in a current exhibition of Chinese avant-garde art in the Hague is a reproduction of Mao's Little Red Book, the "bible" of the Maoist Cultural Revolution of the 1960s, with the pages blank, because -- as the artist explains -- it no longer has anything to say to the Chinese.

The new breed of collectors are the real estate developers, construction company owners, captains of industry, hi-tech managers, moneymen, and others who have profited from China's frenetic economic pace.

Henry Howard-Sneyd, who runs Sotheby's - Christie's main rivals - was quoted in the New York Times Thursday as saying that the Chinese were interested in their own art, but also in everything else including "fine wines, jewelry, Western furniture, and 19th century paintings."

Because there is still a ban on foreign auction houses operating in Beijing, Christie's has teamed up with a new local auction house called Forever. Christie's will provide its name, the expertise and sales teams, with the first sale of 46 works of Chinese modern and contemporary art going on the block on Nov 9.

If Christie's is there can Sotheby's be far behind? If Sotheby's has plans to follow suit, however, it has yet to announce them. Meanwhile, Sotheby's is holding its first sale of Chinese contemporary art in its New York sales rooms in March.

"Obviously, Christie's wants to cater for domestic Chinese buyers," says Howard Farber, a leading New York collector of Chinese contemporary art told United Press International Friday. "This is an new phenomenon. The Chinese have just started buying Chinese art, especially contemporary. The 21st century belongs to China, and Christie's sees this as a great opportunity."

Farber says it's too early to say what effect Christie's presence in China will have on prices, but it does make Beijing one more venue that collectors have to take into account. "I would assume that the bidding will be fierce between Chinese and Western buyers," he says.

Edward Dolman, Christie's chief executive was quoted as saying this week, "(China) is a huge market and we're building on the tremendous sales in Hong Kong." Both Sotheby's and Christie's have had successful sale rooms in Hong Kong since the time when it was still a British colony.

Helping to fuel the booming Chinese art market is the rising interest worldwide in Chinese contemporary and avant-garde painting, sculpture, and installations.

Politically, the fact that contemporary art is permitted to go on sale inside China signifies a shift in official attitudes. After the Tiananmen Square clashes in 1989 contemporary artists, especially avant garde artists, became non-persons. Their work was not shown; some fled the country, and others went to jail. But their situation has improved gradually along with the prices of their work both at home and in the West.

Julia Colman, a Chinese art expert with a gallery in London and another in Beijing, told UPI, "The fact that these artists have captured the interest of the West makes them less vulnerable to suppression by the regime."

Chinese art doesn't fetch the megabucks of a Picasso or a van Gogh - yet. The rate of climb in prices in the past five years has, however, been rapid and steep. A recently sold installation by Cai Guo Qiang, the artist who created a rainbow over New York's East River in 2002, had a catalog estimate of $230,000 and went for $586,344. A painting by the Chinese New Wave artists Zang Fanzhi sold for $146,586 (catalog estimate: $51,200). But Christie's catalog for next month's Beijing sale lists a landscape by Wu Guanzhong for $770,000 to $900,000.

The avant-garde works can be startling in both concept and execution. "10,000 Kilometers," an installation by Gu Wenda representing the Great Wall of China consists of bricks made of hair, a reference to the many thousands of laborers who suffered during construction of the Wall. The work was recently shown in an exhibition in Beijing. Chinese contemporary art is being seen increasingly in museums in the West as more curators travel to China to meet artists and dealers. At least one Chinese art blockbuster show is being planned for 2006-2007, comparable to the 1998 exhibition "China: 5,000 Years" at the Guggenheim Museum in New York.

FROM INTERNET TO ISLAMNET:NET-CENTRIC COUNTER-TERRORISM

by B.Raman

(Paper presented at a conference jointly organised by the State Islamic University (UIN) of Jakarta and the Institute for Defence Analyses (IDA) of Washington DC at Bali, Indonesia, from October 19 to 21,2005 )

INTRODUCTION

The Internet enables every jihadi to feel part of a larger whole. It enables every angry Muslim to give vent to his or her anger in myriad ways. It enables every Muslim to become a participant in the jihad in his or her own way, with or without a leader. It has strengthened Islamic solidarity. Cyber space has become the spawning ground of jihadi warriors. The use of the Internet by the jihadi terrorists illustrates the folly of dismissing them as irrationals or as persons with a medieval mind. An irrational person or one with a medieval mind cannot use the Internet as effectivedly as the jihadi terrorists have been doing.In this paper, the increasing use of the Internet by international jihadi terrorist organisations would be discussed under six heads: Propagation; Communication; data-mining; cyber warfare; other aspects; and Net-centric counter-terrorism.

PROPAGATION

2.All political dissident and other minority groups who in the past lacked access to the conventional media---print or electronic--- have found in the Internet an easily available means of propagating their cause, creating an awareness of their ideology, winning adherents and promoting a feeling of solidarity and unity of action for achieving their objective. Web activism is not a recent phenomenon and not confined to Islamic groups---moderate or extremist.

3. Terrorist organisations of different hues ---ethnic, ideological or religious--- too have found in the Internet an ideal tool for facilitating the pursuit of their objectives. The international jihadi terrorist organisations were not the first to turn to the Internet. Ethnic terrorist organisations like the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), ideological terrorist organisations such as the Maoist groups of India and Nepal and religious terrorist organisations such as those of the Punjab in India and the Irish Republican Army (IRA) in the UK were amongst the earliest to have realised the utility of the Internet as an operational tool in their attempts to achieve their objective.

4. Amongst the indigenous jihadi terrorist organisations, those of the Palestinians and pro-Palestinian groups, the Chechens and the Kashmiris were the first to start using the Internet for propagating their cause. These were followed by organisations in Indonesia. Jihadi terrorist organisations with pan-Islamic objectives and trans-national networking started using the Internet in a big way only in 2000 and, since then, have replaced the indigenous jihadi terrorist organisations as the most extensive and innovative users of the Internet.

5. The initial use of the Internet----whether by the indigenous jihadi organisations or by the pan-Islamic ones--- was confined to the creation and the use of web sites for propagating their cause, for enrolling members and collecting funds. The web sites were also used for a psychological warfare (PSYWAR) against their State adversaries through the dissemination of details of their alleged suppression of the Muslims.

6. Well-known and well-identified jihadi organisations restricted their use of the web sites for purposes, which would not bring them into conflict with the law. They refrained from using their web sites for purposes such as giving instructions on how to wage a jihad through means such as the fabrication of an improvised explosive device (IED), publicising their claims relating to the successful commission of acts of terrorism etc.

7. Amongst the ostensibly legitimate purposes for which they used their web sites were proclaiming their objectives and policies, disseminating statements of their leaders, carrying articles on different aspects of Islam, and making appeals for volunteers and funds. The web sites took care not to let themselves be seen as indulging in and justifying acts of terrorism.

8. However, this cautious policy did not prevent them from indirect facilitation of acts of terrorism through means such as dissemination of articles carried by the professional journals and web sites of governmental institutions like the Armed Forces and the police on matters such as the low-intensity conflict, which indicated the various ways in which terrorist and insurgent organisations functioned. Their purpose in carrying such articles was to facilitate copy cat terrorism, without falling foul of the law. In their perception----which was valid---since they were mostly reproducing articles on the modus operandi of other terrorist organisations written by governmental experts, they were not committing any breach of the law.

9. The period before 2000 also saw the emergence of a number of web sites created by either Muslim individuals or by organisations not identified with indigenous or pan-Islamic terrorist organisations. They sought to encourage feelings of Islamic solidarity and made Muslims aware of the writings and teachings of well-known jihadi leaders associated with organisations such as the Muslim Brotherhood. An important example is the writings and statements of the late Abdullah Azzam, considered one of the mentors of Osama bin Laden, which started appearing in these web sites. The purpose of these web sites was to provide a religious and ethical justification for jihad.

POST-1998 MUSHROOMING

10. Statements condemning the US and Israel and projecting them as the enemies of Islam and the Muslims started appearing with increasing frequency in all the web sites of the pan-Islamic jihadi terrorist organisations after the formation of the International Islamic Front (IIF) for Jihad Against the Crusaders and the Jewish People by Osama bin Laden from his hide-out in Kandahar in February, 1998. The IIF sought to bring together in a trans-national network bin Laden's Al Qaeda, an exclusively Arab terrorist organisation, and a number of non-Arab jihadi terrorist organisations operating from countries such as Pakistan, the Central Asian Republics, Egypt, the Philippines, Bangladesh etc. The frequency and virulence of the anti-US statements carried by these organisations increased after the US Cruise missile attacks on alleged training camps of the Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and the Sudan in August, 1998.

11. The projection of the US as the principal enemy of Islam became the defining characteristic of all pan-Islamic jihadi extremist or terrorist organisations after the Cruise missile attack. However, the indigenous jihadi terrorist organisations such as those of the State of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) in India and Chechnya in Russia refrained from adopting any anti-US propaganda line in their web sites.

12. In February, 2000, a search of the World Wide Web (WWW) by this writer, even if not very exhaustive, led to about 1,500 sites of Islamic organisations. Most of them had the benign objective of helping in a better understanding of Islam among Muslims and non-Muslims alike. They contained interpretations of the holy Koran, explanations of Islamic religious traditions and practices and articles on the contribution of Islam to science and fine arts etc. They also provided a useful database of the Muslim scientists, thinkers and women engineers of the world, the Muslim media and so on.

13. The following conclusions emerged from their study undertaken by this writer at that time:

* A large majority of them was Sunni and Wahabi sites, with very few Shia or Iran-based ones. Some were anti-Ahmadiya.

* The preponderance of sites run by members of the Muslim community of the US. The next in number were those of Western Europe, Malaysia, Indonesia and Pakistan.

* There was a large network of Muslim Students' Associations in US universities. All of them had their sites.

* The US also had some sites meant for Muslim members of the US armed forces. There was one site, called Muslim Military Members (MMM), which enrolled adherents from the Muslims serving in the armed forces of different countries all over the world. It describeed its aim as follows: " The MMM is an information source for brothers and sisters serving in the armed forces. We are a gathering point. A place where information is disseminated. A means to keep people informed. Through MMM, you will stay informed of different events, resources and news items to help you survive as a Muslim in the armed forces. The MMM is not an official organisation, but rather a loose association of military personnel and those in the service of military personnel. The cost of the web site is provided freely as a service by the Islamic Information Office, paid by Muntadanet.Inc."

* The comparatively fewer sites from West Asia and North Africa, which was explained by the restrictions there on non-government organisations (NGOs) and also possibly by local curbs on access to the Internet.

* Surprisingly, while there were about 50 sites focussing on the problems and history of the Muslims of Jammu & Kashmir, one noticed only three sites relating to the Muslims in the rest of India-- those of the Aligarh Muslim University Alumni, the Indian Muslim Relief Committee and the "Islamic Voice", a journal published from Bangalore. It was possible there were many more sites, but these were not picked up by the search engines.

* While there were many sites to discuss the relations of Islam with Christianity and Judaism, one did not come across any on relations with Hinduism.

14. Of the 1,500 sites studied by this writer, only about 150 contained extremist material relating to the so-called jihad. The rest of them appeared to be benign in their objectives.The majority of the jihadi sites was run by Muslim extremist organisations in different parts of the world which had taken to violence to achieve their political and/ or religious objectives. Some were also kept by individual Muslims with assumed names such as Abu Mansoor, Abu Mujahid, Abu Jindal etc.

15. Some of these jihadi sites performed the following services:

* Dissemination of information regarding the jihad in different countries.

* Instructions on how to become a Mujahideen, how to manufacture explosives etc.

* Database on the availability of arms and ammunition for purchase, including the prices. The sites providing this information were apparently run by Muslims in the US, because the arms sellers recommended by them were all based in the US.

* A bibliography of articles on urban warfare and low-intensity conflicts, which had appeared in the military and strategic journals of the US. A list of 266 such articles was available. Many of them had been collated from the US Marine Corps Doctrine Publications, the Marine Corps Warfighting Publications, the Marine Corps Reference Publications and the US Army Field Manuals. One can directly access many of these articles at the Army Doctrine and Training Digital Library sites, by just clicking on the relevant titles.

* Examples of articles collated by these jihadi sites: Operations in a Low Intensity Conflict; Physical Security; Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield; Intelligence Officers' Handbook; Military Operations in Built-up Areas; Urban Warfare Communications; Air Operations in Low Intensity Conflicts; Bomb Protection Handbook; Chemical/Biological/Radiological Incident Handbook, purported to have been prepared by the CIA; Chemical Warfare Handbook of the Marine Corps Institute; Chemical Warfare Agents; Military Intelligence--Using Organic Assets; Psychological Operations in Guerilla Warfare, purported to have been prepared by the CIA's Psywar Division for use in Nicaragua; Dealing With Vehicle Hijacking Situations; Emergency Response to Terrorism; Media Facilitation; Public Affairs Operations; Media Relations; Building a Newspaper--Tactics, Techniques and Procedures; Combat Neurosis etc

16. While most of these articles and papers made available by the jihadi web sites were apparently procured from open sources, the origin of some such as the documents purportedly of the CIA was not clear. Were the pro-jihadi Muslim members of the US Armed Forces and security agencies providing some of this material to the jihadi web sites? One had a strong suspicion, which could be neither proved nor disproved.

17. Nearly one-third of the 150 jihadi websites related to Kashmir. These were run by indigenous Kashmiri organisations such as the Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), Pakistan-based terrorist organisations such as the Markaz Dawa Al Irshad and its militant wing, the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen etc, Western-based Kashmiri organisations such as the Kashmir American Council, the Kashmir Canadian Council etc, Kashmiri activists based abroad such as Ajaz Siraj, moderator of the Kashnet, Dr.Ayub Thakur of the World Kashmir Freedom Movement, Azmat A.Khan, Secretary-General, JKLF,UK/Europe, Bashir Siraj of the Kashmir Forum etc Some Western personalities taking interest in the Kashmir issue such as Lord Avebury of the UK and Ms. Karen Parker of the US had their own sites. Some of the Kashmiri sites seemed to have been constructed and run by a Colorado-based Internet Service Provider with the typical Hindu name of Indra's Net.

18. Amongst other jihadi organisations active in the WWW were those of Chechnya, which maintained their sites in eight different languages, with video/audio coverage of the fighting, scenes from the training camps, interviews with the Mujahideen etc, Kosovo, Indonesia and the Xinjiang province of China. One did not come across any sites of the jihadi organisations of the Central Asian Republics. Interestingly, the Uighur jihadi organisations of Xinjiang seemed to operate as lone wolves, with no links to other jihadi groups. No satisfactory explanation for this was available.

19. The Taliban Government of Afghanistan used to have its own site maintained apparently from Islamabad. After the enforcement of the UN sanctions against the Taliban in November 1999, this disappeared. The site carried a message that due to difficulties in loading and maintaining the site directly from Afghanistan, it had been discontinued. The visitors were advised to read the "Dharb-e-M'umin", an online electronic monthly, for news about Afghanistan, Kashmir and Chechnya.

20. Amongst organisations of West Asia and North Africa having their own sites were the Hamas, the Hizbollah, the Islamic Salvation Front of Algeria etc.

21. Some of the jihadi sites were in the Malaysian language. Surprisingly, one came across very few references to Osama bin Laden in the150 jihadi websites. There were far more references to the late Abdullah Azzam, a Palestinian who, along with bin Laden, was quite active during the Afghan war and who was mysteriously killed in an explosion in Peshawar in the late 1980s.The complete text of a book on jihad by Azzam was available on the web even in 2000.

22. In a note prepared by me giving my assessment of the sites on February 23, 2000, I had stated as follows: "It would be difficult to estimate the impact of these jihadi web sites on the ground situation in terrorism-affected areas. In regions such as Chechnya, where the Russians don't allow foreign journalists, the web sites definitely become reference points for outside people wanting to have a version different from that of the Russians. One does not know in how many instances, the terrorists were established to have learnt their tradecraft from the web sites. However, it is important for the security agencies to closely monitor the jihadi sites."

23. The period between 9/11 and the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq in March-April, 2003, saw a mushrooming of jihadi web sites, with organisations suspected or identified as facades for the Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda individuals starting a plethora of them. Since the organisations and individuals behind these web sites had no reasons to take care not to come into conflict with the law, they made no secret of their desire to use their web presence not only to propagate their cause and carry on a campaign against the US and other countries perceived as supporting the US, but also to spread the jihad across national borders by paying homage to suicide terrorists, and by converting the Internet into a virtual madrasa and jihadi training centre. The number has further grown up after the US-led occupation of Iraq. The number of jihadi web sites is estimated to have increased from about 150 in February, 2000, to about 4,000 today.

24. The military operations by the US-led coalition in Afghanistan after 9/11 not only deprived the Al Qaeda and other jihadi organisations associated with it of their training infrastructure, but it also damaged the ability of their leadership to personally interact with their cadres and motivate them. The scattered remnants of the Al Qaeda and other jihadi organisations found themselves forced to split into small groups and take shelter in different places in Pakistan as well as in other countries such as Iran, Bangladesh, Yemen etc. The post-9/11 security measures made travel to other countries difficult, thereby drastically reducing the possibility of personal meetings. This period also saw the emergence of the phenomenon of free-lance jihadis------ individual Muslims angered by the actions of the US and other Western countries in Afghanistan and Iraq waging an individual jihad, either alone or in association with like-minded co-religionists, without necessarily belonging to the Al Qaeda and other members-organisations of the IIF. The free-lance jihadis also made their presence felt in the WWW.

25. As these scattered small groups, at their initiative without necessarily any directions or guidance from a central leadership, planned and executed jihadi terrorist strikes in different parts of the world, they started depending on the Internet more and more for keeping up the motivation of their cadres and for sharing their knowledge and expertise in matters such as fabricating explosives from commonly available materials, assembling an IED, use of modern innovations in science and technology for the commission of acts of terrorism etc.

26. The web sites consequently became the main tool not only for the propagation of their cause, Psywar against their adversaries, the collection of funds and the motivation of their supporters, but also for the dissemination of knowledge and instructions on the techniques of reprisal against their adversaries. A telling example of such dissemination of knowledge is about the use of mobile telephones for triggering IEDs. It was through the Internet that lessons on this subject were spread across the world so that today one finds widely scattered jihadi terrorist groups, which had not come into contact with each other post-9/11 and which did not have the benefit of any formal training, successfully using the mobile phones as a trigger in different areas such as Casablanca,Madrid, southern Thailand and so on.

27. While there has thus been a remarkable growth in the number of web sites operated by pan-Islamic jihadi terrorist organisations, a similar growth has not been witnessed in the web presence of indigenous terrorist organisations--- whether they are ethnic, ideological or religious. The WWW is today largely dominated by pan-Islamic jihadi terrorist organisations, which have pushed other terrorist organisations to the background. Moreover, since the leaders of the indigenous jihadi terrorist organisations do not face difficulty in travelling clandestinely within the territory of the country in which they are operating to brief and motivate their cadres through personal meetings, they do not have the same operational dependence on their web presence as the pan-Islamic, trans-national jihadi terrorist organisations.

28. The pan-Islamic jihadi terrorist organisations are aware that the Internet is a double-edged weapon. While it facilitates their trans-national networking and operations, the Internet also makes them vulnerable to detection by the intelligence and counter-terrorism agencies. They, therefore, avoid the use of their web sites for the dissemination of any knowledge regarding their future operational plans and any information which might enable the agencies to determine the identities of their followers and their whereabouts. Their net-centric warfare is more strategic than tactical, more general objectives oriented than specific operations oriented.

29. Those operating these web sites are also increasingly adept in Internet-specific evasive techniques such as frequently changing their location in order to add to the difficulties of the agencies in monitoring them, exploiting other legitimate web sites as safehaven for concealing their web presence etc..

30. What has been the impact of the growing web presence of the international jihadi terrorist organisations on their operations? Firstly, they have been able to add to the anger against the US, Israel and other countries supporting the US through the skillful use of video and audio clips of atrocities allegedly committed against the Muslims in Afghanistan and Iraq. This anger has strengthened the motivation of their own cadres and motivated many other Muslims in different parts of the world to take to free-lance jihadi terrorism.

31. Secondly, they have been able to create or aggravate feelings of alienation amongst the Muslims of countries which have been supporting the US. Thirdly, they have been trying to intimidate some States and individuals presently co-operating with the US to stop doing so through methods such as the kidnapping and murder of their nationals and publicising their acts through the Internet. .

32. Fourthly, they have been able to propagate their cause in the Islamic Ummah and in the Muslim diaspora in Western countries and widen the base of support for their jihad against the US. Fifthly, they have been able to disseminate knowledge and expertise in the techniques of carrying out acts of jihadi terrorism.

33. And sixthly, they have been able to bring about an apparently inexhaustible flow of volunteers for suicide missions in Iraq through their skillful motivational techniques using video and audio clips of the atrocities allegedly inflicted on the Sunni Muslims.

34. However, there is so far no evidence to show that their web presence has contributed to the success of any specific operation. It is difficult to assess and quantify the extent of fund flows to them through the Internet.

COMMUNICATION

35. Till the early 1990s, couriers and landline telephones were the preferred means of communication of all terrorist organisations----ethnic, ideological or religious. They then started using mobile and satellite telephones. They have been increasingly using the Internet for their communications since 1995. Their use of the Internet is through the E-mail, Messenger Services, Message Boards and Chat Rooms.

36. Personal couriers were the safest means of communications unless the couriers were intercepted and interrogated by the security agencies. Telephones are quite vulnerable and communications through them could be easily intercepted unless the terrorists use scramblers. The success of the Indian counter-terrorism agencies against the Sikh terrorist organisations in the Punjab in the 1990s was made possible by the frequent use of the landline telephone by the terrorists.

37. Different terrorist organisations started using satellite and mobile telephones from the early 1990s. The mobile telephone calls posed some difficulty for the technical intelligence agencies, particularly in determining where the persons making and receiving the calls were located. This was particularly so if the terrorists used stolen mobiles or used the mobiles while moving around and not from a stationary position. The widespread use of the mobiles by the terrorists in Karachi in 1995 forced the Government of Mrs.Benazir Bhutto, the then Prime Minister of Pakistan, to ban the use of mobiles. This forced the terrorists to go back to the use of landline telephones. This enabled the agencies to capture or kill a number of terrorists by intercepting their telephone calls and pinpointing their location. A way out of the difficulties posed by frequency-hopping and mobile telephones has since been found by the security agencies. It is understood that the arrest of a number of operatives of the Al Qaeda in Pakistan after 9/11 was made possible by their unwise use of satellite or mobile phones and the success of the US intelligence agencies in intercepting their conversations and in pinpointing their location.

38. E-mails are a safer means of communications than telephones and the terroists have become adept in frustrating the efforts of the intelligence agencies to intercept the E-mail and identify the sender and receiver through evasive techniques such as one-time E-mail address, one-time Internet cafes etc. Different E-Mail addresses and different Internet cafes are used for each operational message.

39. Interception of E-mails poses certain special problems. Whereas a telephone conversation can be intercepted even while the conversation is in progress and the location of the terrorist making the call determined with a fair measure of accuracy,E-mails can be intercepted only after the terrorist has typed the message and sent it. Instantaneous interception of a suspect E-mail and successful follow-up action on it is more an exception than the rule. By the time an intelligence agency intercepts an E-mail, analyses it and determines from which Internet cafe it was sent, it would have become too late and successful identification and arrest of the suspect becomes very difficult.

40. To ensure that even a single interception does not damage their operations, the terrorists have been been using encryption techniques.The most primitive, but the most effective encyrption technique is the use of domestic codes in messages. A domestic code is a set of pre-determined meanings for certain words and phrases used in a message. The message, when intercepted, appears enclair, but the words and phrases used have a meaning different from what they seem to be. It is virtually impossible to break a domestic code unless one has a human source in the targeted terrorist organisation who knows what the key words and phrases in the message actually mean.

41.It is believed that Mohammad Atta and his associates, who carried out the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US, often, if not always, used domestic codes for their communications among themselves and with Khalid Sheikh Mohammad (KSM) in Karachi and with Osama bin Laden in Kandahar. Unless one knows the identity of the sender as a terrorist, one would not suspect the messages sent by him as having anything to do with a terrorist operation.To be able to use domestic codes effectively, periodic personal meetings are necessary. The post-9/11 security measures by making travels for terrorists difficult have reduced the chances of personal meetings and thereby affected to some extent their ability to use domestic codes.

42. However, after 9/11, barring Iraq, there has hardly been any jihadi terrorist strike in which the perpetrators came from outside. Many, if not most, of those, who participated in the jihadi terrorist strikes at Bali, Mombasa, Casablanca, Istanbul, Madrid and London were locals, who would have been able to communicate among themselves in domestic codes without any major difficulty.

43. In other cases, to overcome the difficulties and to protect themselves against interception of their messages, the jihadi terrorists have been increasingly using commercially available encryption keys. To be able to break them, the intelligence agencies would need a large number of sample messages originated by the same organisation or individual using the same keys. This is quite difficult and this should explain why intelligence agencies fail to detect preparations for specific terrorist strikes.

44. In the case of the international jihadi terrorists, inadequate knowledge of their language and inadequate understanding of the allusions to the Holy Koran made by them in their messages add to the difficulties faced by the intelligence agencies in making effective use of the intercepts of their E-Mails. Intelligence professionals would know how difficult it is to pinpoint suspect telephone conversations in the English language and examine those intercepted by them. To make thir task manageable, they use special software containing key words and phrases through which one could technically separate suspect messages from innocent ones. Even then, there is often a time-gap between the interception of a message and its examination and follow-up action.

45. Such difficulties are considerably magnified in the case of E-mail messages, which are in millions, if not billions, and particularly when a foreign language is used. Not infrequently, the foreign language itself becomes a kind of a domestic code.

46. The case relating to the kidnapping and murder of Daniel Pearl, the US journalist based in Mumbai (Bombay), India, by jihadi terrorists based in Karachi, Pakistan, in the beginning of 2002 provides an interesting example of the use of the E-mail services by the terrorists for their operations and the difficulties faced by the intelligence agencies in tracking them. Pearl had heard that the final instruction to Richard Reid, the shoe bomber based in Paris, to embark on his terrorist mission came from someone in Karachi through an E-mail. Pearl wanted to establish the identity of the individual in Karachi, who sent this message, and his organisational linkages. He made his preparations for his visit to Karachi from Mumbai through E-mails exchanged with known and unknown people in Pakistan.

47. Pearl was keen to meet Mubarik Shah Gilani, the leader of a Pakistan-based organisation called Jamaat-ul-Furqa (JUF), which had a large number of members in the Afro-American community in the US and in the Caribbean. He entered into E-mail correspondence with a number of persons in Pakistan in order to seek their help for arranging an interview with Gilani. One day, an individual, who claimed to know Gilani, sent him an E-mail offering to arrange the interview and asked him to come to a Karachi hotel for the initial meeting.

48. Without knowing about the real identity of this individual, Pearl agreed to come for the meeting and landed himself in a terrorist trap, which led to his kidnapping and murder. After the kidnapping, the terrorists involved in the plot were exchanging many E-mails among themselves, with the media and others relating to the conditions for the release of Pearl. Through a study of these messages and other enquiries, the Pakistani intelligence agencies were ultimately able to establish the identities of the perpetrators and arrest them, but they could not establish where Pearl was kept hostage and rescue him before he was murdered.

49. The use of Messenger Services, Message Boards and Chat Rooms by the terrorists to discuss their plans and to convey instructions poses similar difficulties to the intelligence agencies in their collection of Technical Intelligence (TECHINT). This should explain why there have been very few confirmed instances of specific terrorist operations being thwarted and terrorists arrested through timely interceptions on the Internet.

50. Intelligence agencies monitoring the use of the Internet by the terrorist groups are often able to pick up general intelligence of the likely or planned targets of the terrorists and not details of their specific plans. Thus, through the Internet chatter, the intelligence agencies had assessed that Spain and the UK were the likely next targets, but they were unable to collect specific intelligence about when, where and how the terrorists would carry out the strikes.

51. The terrorists also use the Internet for commercial purposes under cover names for augmentintg their funds and for the procurement of arms and ammunition. The LTTE, for example, regularly uses the Internet for communications relating to its commercial fleet of ships and for remaining in touch with its arms procurement networks in Thailand, East Europe and other places. It was reported to have procured a microlite aircraft through the Internet.

52. It is not possible to prevent the terrorists from using the Internet for communication purposes, but it should be possible to intercept their messages and chats, break the codes used by them and collect timely preventive intelligence. In view of the millions, if not billions, of messages in different languages passing through the Internet, identifying suspect messages in this traffic, decoding them, translating them if they are not in English, understanding their significance and implications and taking effective follow-up action is a phenomenal task.

53. Such a task requires human and material resources, powerful super computers, linguistic competence and a large data-base built up with the help of intercepts broken in the past. Very few countries can mobilise such multi-dimensional resources. When the jihadi terrorists are increasingly becoming global in their thinking, planning and execution of their operations, national technical capabilities alone, however good, would not help in countering them. There has to be an international networking of the national capabilities, which is superior to the network of the terrorists. Such an international networking of national capabilities is yet to emerge.

DATA MINING

54. Not much elaboration is required regarding the terrorists' use of the Internet for data-mining. This refers to the collection of data for propaganda, PSYWAR and operational purposes. The trend towards greater transparency in the working of Governments and the private sector, the mushrooming of online journals and the availability of the print media, specialised journals and research products of think tanks etc on the Internet place at the disposal of the terrorists a large volume of essential/useful data, to which they might not otherwise have access. The kind of data, which the terrorists can now get with the help of the Internet search engines, is as follows:

Details regarding sensitive infrastructure such as the location etc of sensitive Government offices, banks and other financial institutions, stock exchanges, power stations, nuclear establishments,airports, railway stations, traffic choke-points etc
Reports of parliamentary and Congressional proceedings.
Details of parliamentary and other enquiries into the functioning of intelligence and security agencies, which often highlight their deficiencies.
Case studies of important terrorist incidents giving details of how the terrorists operated.
Case studies of the successes and failures of the counter-terrorism agencies.
Testimonies given by intelligence and security managers before parliamentary and congressional hearings.
Articles on arms, ammunition, different kinds of explosives, weapons of mass destruction material etc
Articles on the counter-terrorism methods of the intelligence and security agencies.
Articles on the threat and vulnerability perception of the security agencies etc etc
55. A careful collection of the relevant material from the Internet would facilitate the commission of terrorism by placing at the hands of terrorists considerable material which they would require for a successful strike. Before the advent of the Internet, the terrorists had to spend a lot of money and time to case their targets through spot visits and enquiries. Now, much of the preliminary work could be done through the Internet. Their knowledge of the working of intelligence and security agencies and their weak and strong points has improved and copy cat terrorism has become easier.

56. How to counter this and deny the terrorists the information they need? The answer lies not in reversing the process of greater transparency, but in carefully monitored and controlled transparency in order to exclude from the Internet information, which might not otherwise be available to the terrorists and which could directly facilitate commission of acts of terrorism. There is now a greater awareness of the need for this all over the world.

CYBER WARFARE

57. Cyber warfare essentially refers to the techniques of massive disruptions in the economy and the critical infrastructure of the adversary and denying to the adversary the ability to effectively use the Internet for operational purposes, such as waging a conventional or unconventional warfare. As the world, its economy and infrastructure become more and more Internet dependent and driven, they become more and more vulnerable to catastrophic acts of mass disruption not only by States and non-State actors such as terrorists, trans-national crime syndicates etc, but also by lone-wolf cyber warriors, working either independently, or in tandem with other lone-wolf warriors or at the instance of States or non-State actors. Cyber warfare provides the means of conducting covert actions such as sabotage, subversion, mass disruption etc without having to physically cross borders or travel.

58. While many States are believed to be acquiring a capability for waging a cyber warfare, evidence is still lacking as to whether the terrorist organisations too have been doing so. The terrorists have definitely acquired a capability for disfiguring the web sites of their adversaries. There have been innumerable instances of terrorists doing so. Are they also trying to acquire a capability for mass disruption operations through the Internet against economic and other critical infrastructure? The evidence regarding this is still incomplete and weak.

59. Much has been written and discussed on the dangers of cyber warfare by terrorists, involving mass disruption covert actions against their adversary States. The debate on this subject is based on perceptions of vulnerabilities than on those of real threats. However, intelligence and counter-terrorism agencies cannot afford to overlook this possibility while developing their capabilities in the field of net-centric counter-terrorism.

OTHER ASPECTS

60. Since 9/11, the jihadi terrorists have been increasingly using the cyber space for some of their activities. The remarkable manner in which they have built up their cyber capabilities speak of the availability to them of a fairly large reservoir of information technology (IT) proficient volunteers who are prepared to place their services at their disposal for operational purposes. One is already aware of some IT experts whom they had in their ranks and who helped them in this field. Prominent amongst them were Abu Zubaidah,a Palestinian, who was arrested at Faislabad in Pakistani Punjab in March 2002 and handed over to the US authorities and Mohd.Naeem Noor Khan, of Pakistani origin, who was arrested at Lahore in August,2004. At the time of the arrest of Abu Zubaidah, sections of the Pakistani media had reported that he had done a course in computer technology at Pune, India, before crossing over into Pakistan and joining the Al Qaeda.

61. Many madrasas in Pakistan---some on their own and others at the prodding of the State---have been teaching IT to their students from different countries in addition to lessons in religion and the techniques of waging jihad. While the aim of the State in pressurising the madrasas to include IT in the syllabus is to provide the students with legitimate means of livelihood after they come out of the madrasas in order to wean them away from terrorism, many of these IT-trained and religiously-motivated students add to the reservoir of IT-proficient volunteers available to the Al Qaeda and the IIF.

62. There is reason to believe that in addition to these, there are many lone-wolf Muslim cyber professionals living all over the world who have been assisting the jihadi terrorists in the cyber space. As a result of this, the international jihadi terrorists have never been in short of competent cyber professionals, who either act at the instance of the Al Qaeda and the IIF or on their own in the pursuit of common objectives.

63. While their increasing web presence has enabled the jihadi terrorists and their objective allies in the community of free-lance jihadis and lone-wolf cyber activists to promote and strengthen feelings of Islamic solidarity and to give a push to the trend towards the monolithisation of the community, though this objective is still far away, its actual contribution to the success of specific acts of terrorism is difficult to quantify. However, their ability to communicate with each other through the Internet without their planned operations being detected by the intelligence agencies has definitely been an important factor in some of their successful terrorist strikes.

64. Terrorist organisations cannot be defeated in the military sense. They can only be made to wither away by repeatedly denying them success, by diluting the motivation of their cadres and by drying up the flow of volunteers and funds. An important component of cyber counter-terrorism is, therefore, devising ways of denying them success in the cyber space. The international community is nowhere near achieving it.

65. Most of what the intelligence agencies know about the web network of the jihadi terrorist organisations seems to be based on their observations in the web space and the interrogation of arrested terrorists. Inadequate human intelligence (HUMINT), whis is one of the serious deficiencies of the counter-terrorism agencies of the world, comes in the way of their being able to penetrate the web network of the jihadi terrorists too. Penetration through human sources would enable them to break through their secret communications. In the absence of penetration, which could provide them inside information about the kind of encryption used, how and when it is changed etc, code-breaking becomes time-consuming and often a matter of luck.

NET-CENTRIC COUNTER-TERRORISM

65. Neither prevention nor pre-emption is possible in cyber-space. Only effective countering can deny the terrorists the advantages presently enjoyed by them. Countering their innumerable web sites by suppressing them would be counter-productive. The web sites run by the jihadi organisations and their associates are a valuable source of open information regarding the terrorists. There would be no point in suppressing them. What needs to be suppressed are those pages or sections of their web sites, which disseminate information about how to commit an act of terrorism. An effective counter to their use of the web for propaganda and PSYWAR purposes is not by suppressing them, but by the State developing better means of dissemination of information and a better PSYWAR capability in order to discredit the terrorist organisations and wean their followers away from them.

66. The most important component of net-centric counter-terrorism is the capability to monitor/intercept their communications through the Internet, to break their codes and take timely action on the intelligence thus collected. Very few countries in the world presently have the human, financial and technical resources required for this. It would be very difficult to undertake this task through national capabilities alone. While there has been an increase in international co-operation by way of intelligence-sharing, there is very little co-operation by way of technology-sharing.

67. Technology, which could facilitate better countering of the web presence of any entity, is a dual-target one. What can assist in countering the web presence of non-State actors would be equally helpful against States. Hence,the reluctance to share this technology. The scope for co-operation would, therefore, continue to be limited. The post-9/11 period has seen greater bilateral and multilateral co-operation in cyber security, but this is presently restricted to sharing of training facilities and transfer of low-tech expertise. Every country, faced with threats from international jihadi terrorists and other terrorist organisations, has to invest considerable resources, time and effort in developing a national capability for Internet communication penetration.

68. The Internet provides a means of penetrating terrorist organisations through human moles by taking advantage of their online recruiting. This is an area of intelligence exploration, which deserves better attention than it has received so far.

69. The objective of counter-data mining has already been touched upon above. As regards,cyber warfare, the fact that the terrorists have not so far made any attempt in this direction. Should not give rise to any complacency that they are unlikely to do so in future too. This is an area of serious vulnerability, which should continue to receive the required attention.

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Distinguished Fellow, International Terrorism Watch Programme, Observer Research Foundation, (ORF), and Convenor of its Chennai Chapter. E-mail: itschen36@gmail.com)

Nanotech Policy: Regulation at the Intersection of Science, Morals and Public Health

Nanotech Policy: Regulation at the Intersection of Science, Morals and Public Health
By Bart Mongoven
StratFor.com

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency released a consultant's report Oct. 16 that offered the first plan for studying the toxicity of nanotechnology. The report outlined three elements of a toxicity screening strategy, which is crucial for the agency as it develops a regulatory approach for the technology within the bounds of the national Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) -- a law passed in 1977 to regulate chemical compounds in commerce.

It is easy -- indeed, tantalizingly so -- to imagine the future of public policy with a structure identical to that known today, differing only in the issues to which it reacts. For example, it is tempting to rely on our familiarity with the players, interests and arguments involved in the perennial debate over fuel economy standards to imagine similar debates in 50 years that involve the minimum hydrogen fuel required for passenger cars to fly 50 miles at 1,000 feet in inclement weather. But public policy -- and the emerging technologies that often drive it -- is too dynamic to be extrapolated from current trends. People have been predicting flying cars for a long time, but who could have foreseen in 1970 that much of the need for them would be obviated by an explosion in Internet telecommuting? Policy architects have been required to address not speed limits for flying cars, but regulatory barriers to broadband Internet deployment.

The point is, the introduction of new technologies increasingly is confounding existing legal structures. The impulse to regulate through existing structures can be clearly seen where nanotechnology is concerned -- but at the same time, policymakers, lawyers and industry admit they are finding it increasingly difficult to apply the old regulatory systems to new techniques and concepts, such as stem cell research, cloning and the Internet.

In each of these cases, advanced democracies are trying to figure out how best to encourage continued technological development and progress while also managing risks and ensuring the ethical and social demands of their publics are met. These growing challenges concerning regulation of new technologies illuminate some of the fundamental questions that policymakers have not yet asked.

Nanotechnology presents one of the more complicated emerging regulatory challenges, raising questions about both safety and side effects.

The term "nanotechnology" refers to any number of products that depend on the precise formation of extremely small components -- 1 to 100 nanometers. Dozens of nanotechnology products are already on the market, in products including such things as antibacterial wound dressings, dental adhesives, and even in fashion, but these represent a minute fraction of the commercial applications nanotech will find in the coming decade.

Leading the parade of promising new nanotechnologies are carbon nanotubes, which allow for the formation of small, strong devices that can be used for countless applications. Somewhere in the future lies the development of self-assembling or self-replicating nanotechnologies. These conceivably could have such wonderful applications as being inserted as agents into the human bloodstream to help combat the effects of disease and aging. On the other hand, nightmare scenarios about self-replicating machinery have been the stuff of science fiction for decades, and the fear of a world consumed by uncontrollable self-replicating nanites has an understood name: "gray goo."

Acknowledging the fears of the "gray goo" and other more realistic potential problems, the nanotechnology industry is working with government to find a satisfactory regulatory regime. Business wants some form of regulation because, as the "gray goo" scenario suggests, the most provocative rationale for regulating nanotechnology is direct safety risk, and the industry knows that significant allegations of harm from nanotech products could stifle the future of the industry as a whole. What industry and the government are trying to develop is a regime that will prevent the "gray goo" while allowing for nanotechnology to flourish under the eye of a watchful, though non-intrusive, government.

However, regulatory history suggests that many of these goals are nearly contradictory: Creative technological industries generally do not flourish when tightly regulated. Technology excels when people and groups are allowed to do whatever they want, barring specific prohibitions. Because regulators cannot predict invention and innovation, progress stalls under systems in which the creative are allowed to do only those things the government enumerates that they can.

The scientists involved in nanotechnology are trying to find a place for their work under current regulations. For the most part, they have turned to TSCA law, which contains a number of registration requirements for chemicals and mandates testing under certain circumstances. Despite some inevitable legal gymnastics, TSCA seems like the proper place for nanotechnology to be regulated -- if we are to remain within our current public policy framework. It allows for great freedom in experimentation and research, but places testing requirements on substances that are produced in bulk and used in commerce. It allows for both innovation and restriction in the event a problem is discovered.

Below the surface, however, some significant problems emerge. With nanotechnology, chemical compositions may remain the same, but how they act in the body can change. This places significant stress, for instance, on assertions that carbon nanotubes are safe because their components have been found safe in certain applications. Researchers have found that one application of carbon nanotubes -- called buckeyballs -- can pass through the blood-brain barrier, something very few manmade substances can do. While there is significant question about whether this has meaningful health effects, it is generally a cause for concern. Further, it remains unclear whether TSCA's rules would apply to buckeyballs if carbon nanotubes themselves have been shown to be safe.

Some look at stories like the buckeyball and "gray goo" scenarios and call for a complete moratorium on nanotechnology development. Some call for the moratorium to last until a new regulatory regime has been put in place, others for nanotech to be put on hold until large-scale health studies have been conducted.

Any of these moratoriums would address most health concerns but, as the debate over cloning and the use of fetal stem cells shows, it is unrealistic to imagine that U.S. regulations can contain an emerging technology. Research will continue -- the only questions are where, and under what rules (if any). As the U.S. experience with stem cells shows, the country that bans certain scientific research only loses control over how that research is carried out, and stands to lose out on any competitive advantages the new development brings.

The issue of human cloning could be particularly enlightening. While fully recognizing that they may be giving up significant learning and technological advantages, the United States, Europe Union, Japan and most other developed countries have nonetheless decided to completely disallow human cloning. This may halt efforts to clone humans in these countries, but it will not stop cloning altogether -- and most experts agree that while it is far more difficult than cloning a sheep, cloning of humans is only a matter of time.

So we're left with an interesting situation: The negative effects of someone creating a human clone are both moral and theoretical. Despite bans, human clones are likely to be created, and it is difficult to imagine how human cloning will directly harm people or damage property. By almost all accounts, however, the inevitability of human cloning does not sway people from supporting laws that ban the practice where they live. It is considered offensive.

Similarly, fetal stem cell research is highly controversial, and the U.S. response to this question has become the center of a difficult political debate. U.S. policy, preventing the use of new stem cell lines in the country, reflects the recommendations of a controversial panel composed of scientists and ethicists that was assembled to chart that ground where science is at question but does not provide a guide -- and the current U.S. stem-cell policy reflects what that group claims is the best answer available.

Stem cells and human cloning intersect where regulation and morality meet. Does nanotechnology, however, rise to this level? For most, the answer is that it does not -- that no fundamental moral principles are at stake, and that that nanotech merely rises to a level at which we use risk assessments to determine whether buckeyballs pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

Establishing that the public is willing to regulate certain commercial technological activities on moral grounds, then, opens whole new lines of discussion: Is it moral, for example, that Harvard University owns a patent on a kind of mouse that it created using genetic manipulation? Should regulation of "life patents" fall under cautious moral questioning, or should it fall to risk assessments?

The ethical implications of "life patents" were among the concerns expressed by biotechnology's opponents in the 1990s, but generally those questions were overwhelmed by tactical concerns.

In the 1990s, opponents of biotechnology embarked on a strategy to rouse public concern about biotechnology's safety and its moral implications. Though most opponents objected to the use of biotechnology in agriculture for complex ideological reasons, they focused their rhetoric on the safety of the products as food and in the environment; concerns about the social implications for developing countries; and concerns about the economic impact of agricultural biotechnology on farmers (particularly in developing countries) and the agricultural economy in general. These messages were critical, opponents thought, because they broadened the anti-biotechnology message beyond a narrow ideology and brought it to a variety of constituencies -- e.g. farm groups, environmentalists, human rights advocates. Importantly, the tactic worked in Europe to stall the growth of agricultural biotechnology.

The tactical decisions that biotechnology's opponents made in the 1990s are having an important effect on the nanotechnology debate today. Opponents of biotechnology focused on three basic, easily identifiable concerns, rather than expressing their central argument. Most, if pressed, would argue not about the safety of GMOs, but rather that this under-regulated new industry was moving too fast and that the technology in question required time and study in a holistic manner. Biotechnology's supporters, on the other hand, pulled the three apart and successfully have dispatched each.

Biotechnology's opponents only rarely articulated their fundamental argument -- and did so primarily at U.N.-sponsored events. As a result, now that the nanotechnology debate has begun, none of the groundwork that could have been laid a decade ago is there. Those pressing for the most dramatic restrictions on nanotechnology are beginning to make fundamental arguments, rather than tactical ones.

The most ambitious attempt to make fundamental changes in the structure that regulates new technologies is being offered by ETC Group, which is calling for an international convention on the public's right to accept or decline new technology -- the International Convention on the Evaluation of New Technologies. This step, which essentially calls for the politicization of scientific and technological progress, has long been an objective of anti-chemicals and anti-biotechnology advocates. Some of these advocates have relied on a radical interpretation of the precautionary principle, which argues simply that a new product should be "proven safe" before it is allowed on the market. Taken to its logical extreme, of course, this would stifle all new technology by demanding that creators prove a negative (that it is not possible for their products to be harmful). This clearly being the case, the only way to certify that the negative "no harm" has been achieved would be to turn to political judgments, rather than scientific ones.

Despite the advocacy of the ETC Group and its allies, movement toward International Convention on the Evaluation of New Technologies will be slow, if it comes at all. However, what is emerging is growing recognition that the regulation of science and technology may require fundamental changes that outpace regulatory structures, such as TSCA or the nascent European chemicals regulatory scheme.

What industrialized countries appear to be waiting for is a new way of looking at the intersection of technological and moral issues. It is less and less frequent that the old ways provide adequate answers to the legal, moral and ethical questions now being posed, but a new way has not yet been found.


Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.

PoK could go the East pak way: Pakis desperate for peace

Excerpts from 2 Lahori pieces in successive weeks: desperate paki for the first time is willing to keep J&K in Indian union!

For better and for worse
The Friday Times
October 14-20, 2005 - Vol. XVII, No. 34
Najam Sethi's E d i t o r i a l


...
It is shocking that a country that boasts nuclear weapons and missiles, spending hundreds of billions of rupees every year on its military prowess, could only muster one crane on the day of the disaster to try and clear the rubble of the collapsed Margalla Towers in Islamabad under which hundreds of people were buried. It is even more remarkable that the Pakistan army, which is supposed to be spread out in force along the Line of Control in Kashmir, was so thin on the ground at the site of every disaster. Indeed, early pictures show army jawans gingerly picking at the rubble with their bare hands or shoveling away in an uncoordinated and relatively unfocussed manner. It is inexplicable that the full extent of the damage is still not clear to the government despite the potential availability of satellite pictures from international sources. It is astounding that the prime minister has announced a relief budget of a few billion only in view of the scale of devastation in which over 5 million people have been rendered homeless and destitute. And it is scandalous that ruling party MNAs MPAs and Nazims are not prepared to divert their "development funds" to help earthquake victims.
... Incredibly, the religious parties have chosen this moment to undermine the government by refusing to sit in a meeting of the National Security Council convened for the purposes of extending and coordinating relief to the injured and bereaved survivors of the disaster. Even the NGOs are going it alone so that they can demonstrate their individual utility to donor agencies. The theme of politics and profit over humanity and community has echoed again and again in this hour of national travail. Most notably, it is captured in the agonizing sentiments of Mirwaiz Omar Farooq, the Kashmiri leader, who bewailed the refusal of the Pakistan government to coordinate relief work with the Indian government across the invisible Line of Control that was not recognized by the quake in the region.

Natural disasters and governmental response in alleviating distress are inclined to be etched on the popular imagination. Remember how a **cyclone in East Pakistan irrevocably created a hostile Bengali** perspective about West Pakistani rulers? ...


Natural Vs Unnatural upheavals
The Friday Times
October 21-27, 2005 - Vol. XVII, No. 35
Najam Sethi's E d i t o r i a l

... when India offered physical assistance in the form of men and helicopters, the government of Pakistan balked. It was prepared to accept Britishers for emergency relief work but Indians weren’t kosher. It was prepared to accept American helicopters flown by American pilots but Indian helicopters flown by Indian pilots were taboo. Certainly, there can be no military security justification for refusing Indian assistance – every inch of disputed Kashmir is mapped by satellites, including positions of both armies along the LoC. ... both governments were quick to spurn the sentiments of Mir Waiz Farooq, the All Parties Hurriet Conference Kashmiri leader, to launch a joint relief operation across the LoC. ...
Observers have also noted how "seismic shocks can translate into political upheavals". The **cyclone in East Pakistan in 1970 irrevocably turned the Bengalis** against the Punjabi ruling elites of Pakistan and sowed the seeds of the country’s dismemberment one year later. In Algeria, Turkey and Egypt, insensitive handling of quake disasters led to a wave of anger at corrupt, lazy and incompetent governments and created a groundswell of support for Islamic parties. These groups were able to fill the political vacuum because of their superior organisational abilities. In the wake of this quake, and given the historic military-mullah alliance and the political shunning of the mainstream parties by the Musharraf government, is Pakistan fated to go down that path too? ...

Of course, it is not inevitable that Pakistan should succumb to the religio-political fate of pariah nation-states. President Musharraf could demonstrate some raw courage and real vision in democratising Pakistan and cementing peace with India. That would entail cutting the umbilical link between the military and mosque, allying with the mainstream parties that want peace with India, sharing power rather than office with them, and building a national consensus for a sustainable and realistic "solution" in Kashmir ... rather than insisting upon any Pakistani locus standi relating to the "unfinished business of partition". On India’s part, it would demand an equally bold and visionary agenda to ... grant Kashmir maximum freedom for self-determination *****short of secession from the India union*****. ...

... there may be more unnatural upheavals in store for all of us.

Mau riots early warning for all patriotic Indians

PRESS RELEASE October 22, 2005.



Statement of Dr. Subramanian Swamy,

President of the Janata Party.

Recent communal riots in Mau town in U.P. is an early warning for all patriotic Indians and a wake up call for those Hindus who claim to espouse secularism.

Mau is a town of 65 percent Muslims and the local Muslim leaders, many of them with a criminal background, have over the years terrorised the Hindus not to hold publicly the Bharat Milap festival that comes between Dussehra and Deepavali. This year the Bharat Milap festival fell on a Friday and the Muslim leadership of Mau, publicly declared that only Namaaz Azaan will be broadcast and no microphones will brodcast any bhajans connected with the Bharat Milap festival.

This public declaration is shocking in a country where 80 percent or more people are of Hindu faith; but it is a wake up call for those who have failed to realized that secularism can only survive in this country if the Hindus are in overwhelming majority. India cannot be allowed to become a Saudi Arabia for Hindus.

The developments in Kashmir Valley and the treatment of the Hindu minority in that State combined with what has happened in Mau is an early warning to all secular Hindus that a backlash of Hindu reaction is imminent, and to make them realize that the need of the hour is an assertive Hindu unity and not a flip flop secular pontification to the Hindus.

I demand to know why Muslims, Christians and secular Hindu organizations which were so vocal about the backlash aftermath of the Godhra massacre of 26 Hindu women and children, are so deafeningly silent about what has happened in Mau. If they do not speak up now, then they should keep their counsel, for it will not be relevant in the future. Their silence on the bogus cases filed on the Kanchi Shankaracharyas has already radicalized Hindus.



( SUBRAMANIAN SWAMY )

October 21, 2005

Defence and Geopolits roundup

{1} UK SAS tests mini UAV -- [Janes]

{2} Southern Gulf Co-operation Council countries brace for terrorist attacks -- [Janes]

{3} Chasing the dragon in the South Pacific -- [Janes]

{4} US fired Last Titan IV B Inter Continental ballistic missile ---[AFPN]

{5} Not enough Airmen working in military intelligence says US General ---[AFPN]





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{1} UK SAS tests mini UAV
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By Tim Ripley JDW Correspondent
London

The UK's Special Air Service (SAS) Regiment has carried out trials of the Mission Technologies BUSTER (Backpack Unmanned Surveillance Targeting and Enhanced Reconnaissance) small unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) ahead of an enhanced deployment of UK special forces personnel to Afghanistan in 2006.

The trials at the regiment's Credenhill base near Hereford were part of continuing efforts to improve the reconnaissance-gathering capabilities of the UK's special forces, JDW has learned.

The UK Directorate of Special Forces has also taken a close interest in experiments with larger UAVs run by the UK Joint UAV Experimentation Programme (JUEP). These included trials with leased EADS/Israel Aircraft Industries Eagle and General Atomics Predator B medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) UAVs.


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{2} Southern Gulf Co-operation Council countries brace for terrorist attacks
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By Michael Knights

In Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the southern portion of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) boasts two of the world's fastest growing economies and the Middle East's best investment opportunities. Oman, meanwhile, is the most traditional society in the Gulf and a growing tourist destination. Considering their large Western expatriate communities and closeness to Saudi Arabia and Yemen, these three states would appear to be tempting targets for Salafist terrorist cells in the region.

Two images dominate consideration of the likelihood of future terrorist attacks in the southern GCC states. The first suggests some form of shadowy compact between the local government and terrorists. The second suggests that it is simply a matter of time before further attacks occur. Both images offer ways of interpreting the lack of terrorist attacks within these states without looking deeply into the complex weave of factors that may have dissuaded terrorists from striking in these particular locales. In fact, the lack of violent activity in these states is an indicator that Salafist militants are extremely thin on the ground, and that terrorists outside these states see little reason to travel to the southern GCC to carry out attacks.

On the first count, it is clear that none of the three southern GCC states suffers the same combination of features that have driven the radicalisation of homegrown terrorists in Saudi Arabia or even Kuwait. Economic drivers are stabilising factors. None of the southern GCC states contain large populations of Sunnis who have received long-term exposure to intolerant Wahhabi doctrine, although Qatar is at some risk from a radical fringe.

Similarly, none of the three states has a well-established jihadist tradition or 'top-cover' from senior terrorists who might take an interest in stirring militancy in their home countries. Although Muslim expatriates (particularly Egyptians and Pakistanis) may present an additional risk, it is worth noting that the vast majority of such economic migrants have invested heavily to work in the Gulf and many relatives at home typically depend on their continuing employment. As a result, cases such as that of the 19 March Qatar bomber are likely to be rare.

Perhaps the most alarming development is the phenomenon whereby US military use of local facilities appears to serve as a lightning rod for local dissent and draw attention to government activities that local radicals perceive as anti-Islamic (such as supporting Western presence in Iraq). Qatar's al-Udeid airbase and Dubai's port facilities are notable examples, and it is only a matter of time before Abu Dhabi's al-Dhafra airbase attracts similar recognition.



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{3} Chasing the dragon in the South Pacific
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The spectre of ethnic Chinese organised crime is menacing small Pacific Island states. Australia and New Zealand treat the region as their 'patch' and view the evolution of transnational organised crime with alarm. Australia, in particular, regards the islands primarily as being transit points for drug, people and weapons traffic. Greg Urwin, the Australian secretary-general of the 16-country Pacific Forum, the region's political summit organisation, has warned that the Pacific Islands were in danger of becoming "weak links in the global fight against transnational crime and terrorism".

Papua New Guinea and Fiji, the South Pacific's largest and most developed economies, are the primary attractions for newly arriving ethnic Chinese, who flourish Papua New Guinea and Fiji passports on entry or are quickly able to obtain them without the inconvenience of completing five-year residential requirements.

In a presentation to Alexander Downer, Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs, in September, Army Spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Orisi Rabukawaqa warned that Fiji is now a regional hub for transnational crime involving narcotics, credit card and passport fraud, money laundering, prostitution and murder. Examples from the past five years include a 357 kg heroin bust involving Hong Kong Chinese criminals using Fiji for moving the narcotics to Australia, New Zealand and Canada; a 74 kg methamphetamine shipment from Singapore destined for Australia; and murders of Chinese over gang and business disputes, including the killings of three Hong Kong Chinese and the murder and dismemberment of a Chinese prostitute.

Hoping to prevent the growth of organised crime and improve stability in increasingly lawless South Pacific states, Australia has inserted its federal police into the Papua New Guinea, the Solomons, and Fiji. Australian Federal Police in Vanuatu were asked to leave by the government in September 2004.



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{4} Outside View: The Oil Tsunami
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By YOUSSEF M. IBRAHIM
Outside View Commentator





DUBAI, , United Arab Emirates, Oct. 20 (UPI) -- The global oil market environment is becoming a target of opportunity for terrorists and world powers. The terrorists increasingly see disruptions of oil facilities as a valid strategy in their war against governments they oppose. World powers like China, Japan, the United States and India are driven into increasing confrontation fighting for diminishing oil supplies.

These are sinister developments, ingredients for the next tsunami to hit the already turbulent world of oil where prices have gone so high they are depressing world economies.

The trouble from insurgents blowing up oil facilities is no less dangerous than the pressures from China, India and Japan's voracious appetite for more oil.


China is a major superpower showing it will not hesitate to use pressure to secure oil. The Chinese are developing a strong foothold in Pakistan, where thousands of Chinese workers are building a new port in Baluchistan at Gwadar, right at the entrance to the Persian Gulf.


One of the main causes of friction between China and Japan now involves access to oil and gas deposits in the East China Sea. When the Security Council tried to impose sanctions on Sudan -- one of China's main oil suppliers -- over the issue of Darfur, the Chinese said no.

In May, when a massacre occurred in Uzbekistan with hundreds of people killed on the orders of President Islam Karimov, the United States and Europe asked for an international investigation. China, which had signed a $600 million gas deal with Uzbekistan, blocked it.

One needs to ring the alarm bell as this Asian pressure combines with terrorist attacks to form the elements of the perfect storm heading directly toward the Arabian Peninsula.

At the moment, Iraq is the biggest model for jihadists seeking to spread chaos, fight the pro-American government there and eventually defeat the United States invasion -- and the American project in the region by attacking oil facilities. But soon this tactic will travel to other oil-producing countries. There have already been attacks on oil installations in Chechnya, Pakistan, India, Russia, Azerbaijan, and Nigeria.

Since the American invasion of Iraq, there have been more than 300 attacks on pipelines, refineries, and other facilities. Iraqi refineries have been looted to a point that the United States and Kuwait are supplying gasoline and heating oil to Iraq, which sits on top of one of the world's largest oil reserves. Iraqi oil production has fallen drastically, and with it so have Iraqi oil revenues. The Northern pipeline that carries Iraqi oil to Turkey, which is repeatedly blown up, has never really functioned since the war.

The decreasing oil supplies, the Chinese-Japanese demand juggernaut, and insurgents targeting oil have added an "anxiety premium" to the price of oil -- a fear tax if you will -- which accounts for more than $10 a barrel, leading to the current prices of $65 per barrel. The winter may well see prices going higher.

Western intelligence agencies are particularly concerned that many of the jihadists fighting in Iraq are non-Iraqi Arabs from Arab oil-producing countries. They come from Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Sudan, Egypt, Kuwait and Qatar, among others. These jihadists will return to their countries supplied with a well-practiced model. Do the math.

The oil crisis we face today is not the supply-driven crisis we had in 1973, when the late King Faisal of Saudi Arabia led the oil boycott of the United States and the West to protest their support of Israel in the October war of that year. This is a demand-driven crisis, which leaves the world more dependent on its most politically unstable area: the Greater Middle East, where 77 percent of the world's oil reserves are located.

High prices will eventually push world economies to aggressively pursue a search for alternative sources of energy including solar, nuclear and oil sands which are very expensive to create or extract, but everything is relative.

It still takes time to get from here to there.

We are in a bottleneck that will last for five to 10 years. OPEC is not the solution, as its members are already producing all the oil they have. Nor are they spending money to increase production.

In fact, at this time, NO oil producer -- from Russia to Saudi Arabia -- is spending money on boosting its oil infrastructure to produce more oil. Instead, they are using huge new revenues to build up their economies and pay debts.

No one can blame them. They like the high prices and need the money.

As for the jihadist terrorists, they are already secure in the knowledge that blowing up an oil refinery or pipeline is much easier than ramming planes into the World Trade Center or blowing up subways in London and Madrid.

Their philosophy is guided by the likes of Osama bin Laden, whose core belief is that war against what he calls "infidels" is a war against Western economies dependent on energy. So fasten your seat belts. We are in for a rough ride on oil prices



http://www.upi.com/InternationalIntelligence/view.php?StoryID=20051020-095033-7938r


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{4} US fired Last Titan IV B Inter Continental ballistic missile
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10/20/2005 - VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- After five decades of service, the Air Force and the Lockheed Martin Corp. launched the last Titan IV B rocket from here Oct. 19.

The heavy-lift workhorse thundered off the pad at 11:05 PST to deliver its final payload to space. It carried a critical national security payload for the National Reconnaissance Office.

This launch was the 200th from here. The rocket will now retire from service.

“Today’s launch is the culmination of a tremendous amount of work by several organizations,” said Col. Jack Weinstein, 30th Space Wing commander. “There isn’t a more satisfying feeling in the world than knowing you were part of something so important for our nation.”

G. Thomas Marsh, executive vice president of Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company, said, “Today’s spectacular launch is a fitting way to say goodbye to Titan.”

The commander of the 2nd Space Launch Space Squadron, Lt. Col. Regis Baldauff, dedicated the final mission to Abe Freels and Lenny Hoops, who died recently. Both had had long and distinguished histories with the program. Their names went into space, etched prominently on the side of the rocket.

The launch ends a long evolution from the original Titan I intercontinental ballistic missile. In all, 39 Titan IVs launched into space -- 12 Titan from Vandenberg here and 27 from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla. The final Titan IV mission from Cape Canaveral was April 29, 2005.

“While this is the last flight of the Titan IV, it’s a great opportunity to bring together literally thousands of people who have spent most of their adult life producing, processing and launching these vehicles. So it’s a great tribute to the American spirit,” said Lt. Gen. Michael Hamel, Space and Missile Systems Center commander.

The general said the Atlas V and the Delta IV Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicles will provide “our assured access to space and become the workhorse launch vehicles for the 21st century.”



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{5} Not enough Airmen working in military intelligence says US General
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10/20/2005 - WASHINGTON (AFPN) -- The Air Force can do a better job training and maintaining the Airmen that gather, process and distribute military intelligence, the Air Force chief of staff said.

Gen. T. Michael Moseley said there are not enough Airmen working in military intelligence. And the Air Force must do a better job ensuring the intelligence troops it has are equipped to work in multinational and joint environments.

When it gets the right people to fill intelligence jobs, the general said the Air Force must ask itself if it has matched the right conditions to the skills needed. This is an area in which the service can improve, he said.

General Moseley said the Air Force should focus on developing the regional and operational skills in all its intelligence Airmen.

"I believe we can do better in our languages. And I believe we can do better on experiences," he said. "And I believe we can do better inside the interagency and in the joint world to grow intelligence officers that are more flexible and adaptive in this global war on terrorism."

The general said moving Airmen -- like between operational, staff and joint positions -- would better prepare them to become leaders in their career fields. This would best prepare them for working in combined and joint environments.

Military intelligence is critical to military operations, General Moseley said.

Military intelligence Airmen gather information about America's enemies during peacetime and wartime. They analyze and package the information for military leaders, commanders and war planners. This helps them develop military operations or policy.

"Intelligence today is an incredible force multiplier,” the general said. “Because with good intelligence, almost all things are possible."

The military cannot afford bad intelligence, he said. So the future of this vital community depends on the Air Force being able to develop a cadre that is something beyond “where we've been in the past,” he said.

To do that, the service must be able to teach, mentor, expose and develop its people.

“That's one of the challenges that I'm working real time to make happen," the general said.