August 19, 2006

Changes in the pattern of intelligence targetting of India

Changes in the pattern of intelligence targetting of India

http://indianmavericks.blogspot.com/

A number of spy cases have recently come to light in the media. Most of these are American spies working in the government. For reference I am listing the prominent ones below:

1) Rabindra Singh, an RAW officer was recruited by the CIA and subsequently fled the country.
2) S. S. Paul, an NSCS officer was recuited by the CIA and is now in police custody.
3) Ujjwal Dasgupta, a retired RAW officer was also allegedly recruited by the CIA and is now under arrest.
4) Francis Aranha, an IB officer is alleged wanted for spying for the CIA and has since absconded.

We have also been treated to a molehunt in the PMO and thanks to Jaswant Singh, allegations have been flying fast and thick in the media. A number of waspish spy stories are also being published in western media about the penetration of the Indian Atomic Energy Commission, at least some of these appear to stem from the recently declassified material from the National Security Archive. A few years ago a part of the Mitrokhin Archive was selectively released to the public. The Mitrokhin archive information suggested that the KGB had infiltrated the highest levels of government and several major political parties were on their payroll.

To date no American spies have been uncovered in media, but a number of books have emerged in the US and UK cataloging the activities of a group of US foundations that attempted to conduct psywar on India's populations using locally hired help. A number of Pakistani penetrations in the media have been identified and some LeT penetrations have been identified in the Armed Forces. Reports in the media also suggest that communal organizations also have been the subject of LeT infiltration.

The sudden burst of news about these penetrations could easily lead one to conclude that the national security is being severely breached. Such a view is an oversimplification.

As long as national interests exist, there will always be espionage.

In the past India has been repeatedly targetted by foreign intelligence organizations, for example:

1) Prior to colonization, a number of european powers sent their spies to study the Indian political system and see if it could be subverted to serve European interests.

2) After 1947, both the US and USSR were keen to India become a part of their international block. This ensured that any high value import from these countries became the target of an aggressive counteractions campaign by these powers. Everything from rice to Mig-29s was subject to a psyops campaign aimed at furthering a particular power's agenda. Due to the poor culture of oversight in the US and the USSR, the intelligence services of these countries were ruthlessly used by private interest groups to further their private agenda.

3) After the fall of the USSR, US intelligence operations gained dominance in India. The culture of oversight that had seeped into the US polity after the Iran-Contra affair ensured that most of the private firms were kept out of the intelligence cycles in the US and their needs were served by a growing community of CIA retirees. One of the first acts by this community of India surveillance experts was to assist in pushing through the Enron Dabhol deal. A group of people in the US were very keen on getting a head start in accessing the Indian market.

4) The 90s saw a growing exchange of ideas and people between the US and India. The software sector and other forms of outsourcing grew. An important aspect of this outsourcing was the gradual export of research and development in some sectors to India. By this time the research and development community in India which had grown steadily since Independence had reached critical mass. This created the posibility of India emerging as a peer-competitor to the US in certain technology sectors.

Today US business interest in India growing, and though the Govt. of India is no longer the major player in the economic sector, it is still in a position to make several influential decisions regarding the economy. After 1998 there appears to be an unstated belief in the US intelligence community that India is somehow secretly enhancing its ability to build nuclear weapons and deploy them in sizable numbers. This could in theory alter the escalation situation with Pakistan. In the India US nuclear deal, a great emphasis was placed on verification of India's nuclear pronouncements. Also the vast Indian adminstration is gradually becoming extensively computerized.

All this puts an unusually large burden the US intelligence community and the apparently shoddy tradecraft that has led to the uncovering of these penetrations reflects the mad rush to gather intelligence on India. The US intelligence community and its private contractors have to come up with ways of providing information support to the US business community keen on investing in India. The US also has to keep itself open to the possibility that India is making more nuclear weapons or other forms of defence technology. They have to evaluate what the impact of this is on an India-Pakistan confrontation. Even though the nuclear deal is yet to go through, the US intelligence community has to prepare itself for the possibility of having extended verification mechanisms in place in India. The computerization of India's administration also offers the US a window to peep into the hitherto closed world of the bureaucrat, and while it may be possible to generate a vast number of intelligence intercepts by electronic means, the US will still need human sources i.e. moles, to help them sort through a mass of data. As before the bulk of this effort will continue to be coordinated through their embassy and all those innocuously named organizations parked discreetly in various major cities in India.

I am not trying to make it seem that what the US is doing is okay, nor am I saying that people who spy for them should be given a free pass. I am merely emphasizing that the US now percieves India and China as potential peer-competitor states and is gearing its intelligence machinery to evaluate these countries in a far more aggressive fashion then ever before. This will reflect as a major shift in intelligence activity directed at India and while in the past only the elements of the political spectrum (who controlled major economic enterprises) were targetted, the net is likely to be cast a lot wider now and several government departments will be in the cross-hairs.

B. Raman and others have spoken about these things in the past, but when people watch the latest spy story headline on NDTV or Times Now or CNN-IBN, they forget what was said by people who know quite a bit more.

I am just trying to remind you all, don't be scared this happens all the time, it is the business of nations.

August 18, 2006

Hindu Unity Day in NY was a Great success.

HINDU POLITICAL PARTY, THE IDEA WHOSE TIME HAS COME

From: Narain Kataria in New York

Twelfth Hindu Sangathan Divas (Hindu Unity Day) in which more than 700 Hindus representing all sections of the Hindu society enthusiastically participated in New York will be remembered for a very long time to come. The significance of this celebration lies in the fact that it was joined by two very powerful Hindu leaders from India: Didi Maa Saadhvi Ritambhara ji and Dr. Subramanian Swamy.

In the celebration, a unique resolution, that has the potential of having a far reaching impact on the Indian polity, was passed by the participants with a unanimous voice vote. The resolution read by Srichand Sidhwani, a senior Hindu community activist, and seconded by Dr. Babu Suseelan, a psychiatrist from Pennsylvania said: “It is hereby unanimously resolved that a Hindu political party be formed in India. Aims of this political party would be to safeguard the legitimate interests of Hindus in India, preserve the Hindu character of country, and ultimately capture the political power.”

Sadhvi Ritambhara, the keynote speaker said that Hindus should derive inspiration from the noble lives of Sri Guru Govind Singh, Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, Maharana Pratap Singh, Subhash Chandra Bose, Veer Savarkar and others who fought like lions to protect the motherland and sacrificed their lives at the altar of nation. It is an irony of fate that the present Hindu politicians are behaving like lambs.

We have been too tolerant and too peaceful. We always talk of peace. But, we need to remember that in order to establish peace we have to be the worshipper of Shakti. Disunity amongst us has been the bane of Hindu society. In order to achieve the unity among Hindus, we must stop the internal squabbles. Also, there is an identity crisis in Hindu society. Our excessive emphasis on the divisive factors such as the caste, language and province is the main cause of many of our maladies. .

To solve all our social and national problems, and thereby experience an incredible power within ourselves, we need to remember the fact that we are “Hindus.” The word “Hindu” has great magical powers that could easily unite and strengthen us all. If we identify ourselves as Hindus, we will emerge as invincible and our voice will be heard with respect and attention.

It is a matter of great regret that Hindus today have become refugees in their very own country. Kashmiri Hindus are languishing in refugee camps. Young Hindu girls are routinely molested and brutalized in Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Indian Kashmir.

Hindu leaders live in the fool’s paradise. They mistakenly believe that by indulging in the appeasement of Muslim bullies, one day, they will be able to create a change of heart in them and win them ever. This foolish attempt is bound to fail.



Speaking on the subject of “Hindus under Siege,” the learned Harvard professor and former Union Cabinet Minister, Dr. Subramanian Swamy dealt squarely with the question of terrorism against Hindus that India faces today.

He rejected the often repeated theory of the Islamic intellectuals, pseudo-secularists and the Muslim apologists that it was because of the problems of poverty, lack of education, unemployment, and social discrimination among Muslims that their youth take to the path of terrorism.

Dr. Swamy debunked that theory stating that the top-class Islamic terrorists like Osama Bin Laden are, on the other hand, billionaires. Other young terrorists involved in the London bombings of 7/7 were all well educated and employed as doctors, lawyers and accountants.

Dr. Swamy drew a thunderous applause when he said that the root cause of Islamic terrorism is the application of the outdated Islamic theories of Dar-ul-Islam and Dar-ul-Harb to the civilized democratic societies.

The recent documents seized from SIMI (Students Islamic Movement of India) after the Mumbai blasts make it clear: the goal of Islamic terrorism is to make the Hindu capitulate, convert or simply die a violent death. This Hindus must resist with all their might since Hindus are the target from Coimbatore to Cooch Behar, from Bangalore to Baramula, and from Vadodara to Varanasi. Never again must Hindustan go under foreign rule even if Hindus have to die in millions in a nuclear war. We must win this decisive battle against terrorism and reverse the historical trend of being weak and selfish.

Dr. Swamy told the audience that an effective anti-terror strategy is not only to hunt down the terrorists to their training camps but also to make nonsense of their political objectives. If Islamic terrorists want India to let go of our Kashmir, we must instead go over and recapture the Pak-occupied Kashmir. If they want to destroy our temples, then we must instead liberate Kashi Vishwanath and Mathura and three thousand other temples demolished in past by the invading butchers in the name of Islam.

If they drive out Hindus from Bangladesh then we should annex a proportionate area of that country to resettle the displaced Hindus. If they want Dar-ul-Islam in India, then instead we’ll give them a Hindu Rashtra in its place. Dr. Swamy recalled what Veer Savarkar had said: "If necessary, militarize the Hindus and Hinduize the nation". No more submission, no more compromise, and never to capitulate. The only way is to fight to win. That is the Hindu mindset, the Virat Hindu resolve we need today.

Dr. Swamy advocated that those Indian Muslims who openly and proudly acclaim that their ancestors were Hindus are our brothers and sisters. They are a part of our family in Hindustan. India is Hindustan i.e. a land of Hindus and all those who acknowledge their ancestors being Hindus. Outsiders can live here but they cannot be allowed to vote. "We can never accept Vish-Kanyas from Italy as our family," Dr. Swamy added to a roar of laughter and approval from the jubilant audience.

Earlier, welcoming the audience, Narain Kataria, the President of Indian American Intellectuals Forum, the chief organizer of the 12th Hindu Sangathan Divas, congratulated Hindus of America for making the Hindu Unity Day a great success. “Your presence here in this auditorium in big numbers demolishes the fallacious theory propounded by the prophets of doom that Hindus cannot be united. Your presence in this hall exposes the myth that Hindus cannot speak in one voice. Your presence is a testimony to the fact that Hindu unity on an All India level is a practicable and feasible proposition, ” said Kataria.

Bhushan Tadepalli acted as master of the ceremonies. Arish K. Sahani and Aruna Inala coordinated the event, and Ramesh Gathuria proposed a vote of thanks.

''Mexico's Internal Drug War''

As U.S. and Colombian authorities began closing smuggling routes through the Caribbean in the late 1980s and 1990s, Colombian criminals began smuggling cocaine and heroin through the Central American isthmus and Pacific routes. Both smuggling routes invariably led them to Mexico.

In the world of organized crime, an individual who wants to smuggle an item into the United States knows they can count on their Mexican counterparts. With an intimate knowledge of the terrain, lists of corrupted officials on the payroll, and decades of perfecting smuggling skills, Mexicans can smuggle just about anything into the United States for the right price. The U.S.-Mexican border is a "soft-underbelly" and a porous border. As a result of the important trade relationship between the United States and Mexico, the border cannot be closed.

The Colombians began heavily relying on Mexican smuggling prowess in the 1990s as Colombia's larger criminal factions dissolved into smaller groups. Smaller factions did not have the resources required to operate the length of a supply chain that ran from the United States -- so they focused on the Colombian end of that chain.

Since the Colombians began selling cocaine at the wholesale level to Mexican organized crime, rival factions have battled over control of the downstream revenue, largely dictated by points of entry into the United States, such as Nuevo Laredo, and points of reception from Colombia, such as Acapulco.

The Cartels

The world of Mexican organized crime has undergone an exceptionally violent consolidation process during the past three years. Two factions of organized crime, known as the Sinaloa Cartel and the Gulf Cartel, have risen to the top and battle over trafficking routes that span the length and width of Mexico, from Cancun to Acapulco, and from the Guatemalan border to Nuevo Laredo.

Currently, conflict is concentrated in Nuevo Laredo on the U.S. border and Acapulco on the Pacific. Each cartel protects its holdings in these and other areas with well trained assassins that execute the dirty work of defending their employer's turf.

The assassins can earn as much as US$3,000 a week working as the soldiers in a drug war fought to control the lion's share of billions in annual revenue generated from smuggling cocaine into the United States.

Osiel Cardenas Guillen leads the Gulf Cartel. It has traditionally controlled access to the Nuevo Laredo-Laredo smuggling routes, referred to as "plazas." Joaquin Guzman Loera, also known as "El Chapo," currently directs the Sinaloa Cartel. Since escaping from prison in 2001, El Chapo has worked hard to increase the Sinaloa organization's control of the Mexican cocaine market.

Another criminal faction, known as the Juarez Cartel, controlled some 14 percent of the cocaine trade between Mexico and the United States until Mexican authorities captured in November 2005 the financial wizard of the operation, Ricardo Garcia Urquiza, also known as "El Doctor." Soon after, the Juarez Cartel fell into a flux, opening an opportunity for other Mexican cartels to take a larger share of the U.S.-Mexico black market profit.

It was then that the Sinaloa Cartel redoubled its efforts to capture control of the Nuevo Laredo plaza from the Gulf Cartel, precipitating the current violence there. This violence spread to Acapulco as the battle for Mexico's drug trade spread from the border to the point of procurement.

Acapulco is a straight shot north from Buenaventura, Colombia, the country's largest Pacific port. Many of Colombia's drug trafficking organizations, including the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (F.A.R.C.), used the Buenaventura port to smuggle loads of pure cocaine north. The lack of coastal patrols along the Central American isthmus facilitates the route. Speed boats regularly take illicit products north to Acapulco, where it is loaded onto trucks destined for Nuevo Laredo.

For Mexican organized crime, the logistics of procurement is the backbone of the system that brings its product -- which is cocaine -- to markets across the United States.

Control of Nuevo Laredo is important, but it is only a point of entry and useless unless control is also established over a reliable point of reception. Acapulco happens to be the most logical reception point for both cartels because it avoids the better patrolled waters that surround Mexico's Yucatan peninsula in the Caribbean. Unfortunately for Mexico, Acapulco is not big enough for more than one criminal organization.

Two well organized and ruthless security details propagate the battle between these two criminal factions. El Chapo maintains a group called "Los Pelones," while the Gulf Cartel maintains a group called "Los Zetas." Members of both groups use high power automatic rifles, grenades, and ruthless tactics to eliminate the enemy.

The necessary involvement of police officials at the local, state, and national levels, and the Mexican military, complicates the battle over turf. Corruption pollutes well intentioned policemen and soldiers. The law of "plata o plomo," a choice between accepting a job on a criminal payroll or accepting a bullet in the head, perennially compromises members of the Mexican security forces at all levels.

Due to constant demand for cocaine, heroine, methamphetamines, ecstasy, and other drugs, the Mexican criminal enterprise earns over US$50 billion a year. A considerable amount of this money makes its way back to Colombia to purchase pure cocaine and heroin. Millions of dollars a year land in the hands of policemen, intelligence agents, mayors, port masters, pilots, and many other officials who face the infamous "plata o plomo" decision.

Mexican organized crime spends millions to purchase weapons and munitions. Every year, authorities trace between 5,000 and 7,000 guns from when they are seized in Mexico back to sources in the United States. According to J.J. Ballesteros, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms chief in Corpus Christi, Texas, this number represents "a drop in the bucket." Ballesteros admits that criminals can literally outfit an army from one gun store, "and it's being done," he said. The most popular guns are the AR-15, AK-47, and Tec-9 pistol.

The turf battle between El Chapo Guzman and his rival Osiel Cardenas Guillen has resulted in the death of U.S. citizens, Mexican journalists, and dozens of Mexican policemen, criminals, and innocent civilians. Murder rates are inconclusive, but according to some estimates, some 1,500 people died in organized crime-related violence in Mexico from early 2003 to June 2005.

Conclusion

Many Mexican politicians claim that Mexico will never become as bad as Colombia in the 1980s, when violence was widespread and men like Pablo Escobar controlled a cash flow that rivaled the country's G.D.P. What many of Mexico's leaders will not say in public is the opposite. The reality is not too far away. Bodies continue to pile up even as Mexicans wait to see who will be their next president, whose greatest challenge may not be improving the Mexican economy, but convincing himself that his country has not become a state controlled by the drug trade.

Report Drafted By:
Samuel Logan



The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of inquiries@pinr.com. All comments should be directed to content@pinr.com.

August 15, 2006

Liquid Explosive Training Manuals Easily Attainable on Jihadi Forums

In light of the information emerging from the foiled London attack, the terrorists involved in the operation planned on destroying commercial aircraft by mixing together explosive chemical substances while aboard the planes. The chemicals necessary to create such explosions are easily attainable. More concerning, however, is the fact that the technical information on how to create such explosives is accessible on many jihadi forums and websites. The most significant and frequently discussed subjects in the jihadi forums are topics pertinent to military tactics and how to create deadly explosives.

The website of al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade (http://www.kataebaqsa.org), for example, carries links to a colossal amount of data on creating explosives, part of a more extensive training document called "The Preparation Encyclopedia—All the Mujahid Needs." The training manual contains whole sections on topics such as:

- Types of explosives, mines, detonators, explosive engineering and electronics;
- Chemical and biological weapons;
- Nuclear weapons;
- How to make rockets;
- How to make silencers;
- Poisons.

The encyclopedia also includes informative topics on U.S. and British weaponry, radar jamming and regular military operations. Furthermore, some training materials are very well prepared with illustrative drawings and actual photos, especially in the explosives section.

Concerning the latest terrorist threat in London, a closer look at the chemicals section and what the terrorists are capable of and willing to do to elicit explosive substances could explain how and why this threat is very serious. In these training manuals, the jihadis are learning how to extract a wide range of explosive components from readily available material. Most of these chemicals are very hazardous, such as: hydrochloric acid, potassium permanganate, potassium cyanide, information on how to extract potassium from goat excrement, red mercury, sodium nitrite, hydrogen peroxide, ammonium nitrite, nitroglycerin and hexamine (which is a very combustible white crystalline sand-like solid or powder), in addition to other acids. In addition, the manual lists the ingredients for many types of explosives and how to mix them, in addition to diagrams that display different ways of packaging and transporting them.

To what extent do jihadis benefit from and try to utilize this knowledge? It is clear how useful these documents are to jihadis since many of them post inquiries in other forums requesting further explanation or information on the manufacturing of specific types of explosives. For example, one forum, called al-Bramj (http://www.bramjnet.com), explains to inquirers, in plain language and thorough details, how to make the highly explosive acetone peroxide as a main explosive charge and how to make a detonator from the same substance. The jihadi who posted the instructions was also aware of the precautionary details necessary when handling or mixing the components.

In the same context, Matiur Rehman, who apparently worked as an explosives instructor in al-Qaeda's camps, is allegedly one of the mentors of two of the suspects who plotted to blow up the jetliners, explaining to them, in detail, how to produce and use the explosive device (ABC News, August 9). If Rehman proves to be the mastermind and mentor of the suspected plotters, it appears that al-Qaeda operatives could be implementing the training found in the jihadi forums. Further corroboration of this hypothesis is the fact that the intended explosives appear to be analogous to those mentioned in the training manuals, and the confiscation, by British authorities, of materials related to the investigation from internet cafes in the United Kingdom.

Abdul Hameed Bakier is an intelligence expert on counter-terrorism, crisis management and terrorist-hostage negotiations based in Jordan

August 13, 2006

TERRORISM :It's a hydra-headed monster -- Narendra Modi

It's a hydra-headed monster
Tackle it through multi-pronged strategy
By Narendra Modi

Governance and society in times of terrorism

Terrorism is the calculated use of violence to inculcate fear, intended to coerce or intimidate governments or societies as to the pursuits of goals that are generally political, religious or ideological. International terrorism involves citizens or territory of more than one country.

The mindset that prevailed and caused the creation of Pakistan still persists. Pakistan’s internal politics is Indo-centric and as such thrives on “hate India” emotions. Pakistan takes financial help from across the world as a result of the tensions with India. These are the reasons why Pakistan is carrying out all these activities.

It is as if all international forums are now divided between those who support terrorism and those who are determined to fight it. The world is shaping into two camps. Earlier, there were two superpowers. In days to come there would be two groups—one that supports terrorism and the other that stands for humanity.

I believe that Hindustan should pledge all its goodwill and strength towards formation of such a group. All of us will have to unite to fight.

Same thing happened in Gujarat in the post-Ishrat case, with stories like ‘Modi has killed Ishrat’. The third day the media people were left with red faces with nowhere to hide when Pakistan issued a statement saying Ishrat was their operative and that they were proud that she had sacrificed her life for her country.

Post-September 11, even United States of America came out with stringent laws against terrorism. They went two steps ahead and not only have made immigration procedures rather harsh but have also created an entire new department of Homeland Security so as to ensure its territory’s integrity against terrorist-related aggression. Unless the same is done in India, there is little hope for effective action against militancy.

Pakistan has assisted insurgency in the North-east since the 1950s; supported the terrorists in Punjab since 1981; sponsored indigenous terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir since 1989 and pan-Islamic terrorism through pro-Bin Laden Pakistani terrorist organisations in the same state since 1993; and instigated trans-national mafia groups such as that of Dawood Ibrahim to commit acts of economic terrorism since 1993.

Terrorism is not confined to the western border only. It is a matter of serious concern that the entire north-east region is afflicted with insurgency. Militant groups in specified localities are keen to preserve their ethnic, religious, linguistic and territorial identity and to achieve this goal they adopt various violent means.

A criminal is a criminal, a terrorist is a terrorist, and there is no religion of a criminal or a terrorist. It should not be weighed on the scale of secularism or through communal angles. ISI has modules. Here in Bhavnagar, we broke a module, and a Brahmin boy was caught, who is serving time in prison. ISI networks should not be linked with religion. These ISI modules have identified districts and social conflicts that can be exploited, how each one of them can be synergised to create mass-level disturbances, the blueprint of which has been made by them. ISI modules are working across the nation. But Gujarat has taken up the fight to them, and to a very large extent we have been able to notch up successes in this regard.

Most of the terrorist activities are carried out in India with the covert support of the Pakistan's ISI. The role of ISI in the 1993 Mumbai bomb blasts was established beyond doubt during the investigation. Pakistan is still harbouring a number of key figures, including Tiger Memon, responsible for this dastardly act. Delhi bomb blasts of 1996, Mumbai bomb blasts of 1997 and 1998 were also handiworks of ISI. Attack on the American Centre in Kolkata and the Akshardham incident in Gujarat (both in 2002) revealed ISI's methodology.

One of the most dangerous developments that should cause serious concern is the manner in which left-wing extremism is establishing linkages with foreign countries. The leftists want to connect their activity to China through Nepal with Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, parts of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh.

The twentieth century was characterised by tremendous strides in scientific and technological advancements and explorations, including moon landings and space shuttles. Never before in any of the earlier centuries had advancements in technology been so rapid and with such far-reaching effects. It was also the century of the rise and fall of great empires, the end of colonialism, ideological conflicts, and the creation of international organisations such as the League of Nations and the United Nations Organisation.

During the arms race after the World War II, the Western economies thrived on production of ever more lethal and sophisticated weapons, and their counter-measures. The conventional weapons and equipment produced by the Western nations found their way to the Third World countries, particularly in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The armaments and defence-related industries of the West continued to flood the markets of the Third World with their sophisticated wares. The availability of weapons procured illegally made the society more and more insecure, which in turn led to more procurement of weapons and this in turn added fill-up to factories producing these arms. Unscrupulous strategists created imagined scenarios of danger resulting in more and more supply of arms. It was thus almost a commercial activity to generate fear, procure arms, use arms, again generate fear and so on so forth.

Now how do we define terrorism?
Terrorism is the calculated use of violence to inculcate fear, intended to coerce or intimidate governments or societies as to the pursuits of goals that are generally political, religious or ideological. International terrorism involves citizens or territory of more than one country.

There are several causes advanced for the act of terrorism including ideology. However, the naked truth is that behind acts of terrorism there are vested interests of those who are hungry for political power. It is convenient to camouflage their real intention behind the mask of ideology.

The essence of terrorism is its capacity as a force multiplier through exploitation of fear. The Chinese strategist Sun Tzu said: “To fight and conquer in all your battles is not the supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.” This is the essence of terrorism, the breaking of an enemy’s will through exploitation of fear. In the past, it was said that terrorists were very much interested in publicity and propaganda. But looking to the increasing number of attacks world over, which have neither been claimed nor been announced, a time has come to conclude that the objective of perpetrators of terrorism has changed. Now they want people dead and spread fear. The strategy is to have minimum loss while achieving maximum gain and to create an impact greater than what could have normally been created.

Sometimes, the Western world and people, who cannot look beyond the realm of economics and day-to-day survival, attribute terrorism to poverty. This logic could perhaps apply in some countries, but when terrorism hit Punjab, it was the most prosperous state in the country. There was no poverty in Punjab; there was no hunger, still for 12 long years terrorism had claimed over 14,000 lives. What was the reason? Some say illiteracy brings in terrorism, but in the north-east there are highly educated and qualified people. Why has terrorism hit the wbestern countries, economically developed? If someone says that bread and butter are the root-cause of terrorism, it would be a very myopic view while turning away from the facts.

Terrorism has no boundaries such as national, geographical, social or emotional. This is a ruthless and callous manifestation of a sick mind whose only intention is to acquire political power so that he can rule. What ideology, for example, can bin Laden have? He is not even against any particular country and yet he is today the greatest symbol of terror. What a terrorist ideology does is to exploit the emotional facet of the people. There is a certain decency in each human being and there is a sense of justice as well. A terrorist very clearly creates an impression that appeals to the self-righteousness of a certain group of people. He creates a false sense of injustice and thus exploits the emotional susceptibilities of a section of society. As explained above, the mask of ideology is used to hide the real intent. Usually, since ideology is not easy to think up or create, religion comes in handy since it tugs at the sense of belonging and a sense of identity of the people.

I would like to thank the former Prime Minister Shri Atal Behari Vajpayee for all the efforts he put in during his tenure. Earlier at all international forums, there would be a debate on Kashmir, but now, thanks to his foreign policy, terrorism has taken the centre stage. It is as if all international forums are now divided between those who support terrorism and those who are determined to fight it. The world is shaping into two camps. Earlier, there were two superpowers. In days to come, there would be two groups—one that supports terrorism and the other that stands for humanity. I believe that Hindustan should pledge all its goodwill and strength towards formation of such a group. All of us will have to unite to fight. Terrorism is not just going to go away; we will have to fight it.

A major reason for the recent upsurge in terrorist violence and terrorist-related incidents is the availability of a huge post-Afghan war “surplus”. This “surplus” includes combatants and material. The majority of the combatants, termed mujahideens or freedom fighters, have turned mercenary and know no other way of life than to live by the Kalashnikov. With the communists driven out of Afghanistan and a civil war there, which is threatening Islamic unity in the region, the unemployed guerrillas seek new battlefields and new enemies to fight. These mercenaries are aided by the governments that have either used them in the past and cannot entirely discard them or by regimes that seek to use them in furthering their foreign policy and other larger aims. Many governments despite decrying the spread of terrorism have tacitly helped or tolerated the continued existence of those mercenaries and the use of their soil for subversive activities. This is specially the case with Pakistan, Sudan, Iran and a few other countries. A series of incidents beginning in 1994 and continuing through 2003 has proved beyond doubt that amongst all the nations, the breeding grounds of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Sudan are spawning a monster that is going to haunt the world for a long time to come.

India as a matter of fact has a culture, set of traditions and Gandhian influence, which don’t provide a breeding ground for terrorism. Fact is incapable of producing terrorists. This is the soil that is steeped in religion, culture and a civilised way of behaviour and conduct. The normal Indian psyche is not aggressive. That is why terrorists in the form of mercenaries are injected into the Indian soil to spread terrorism in India. For instance, in Kashmir, eight out of 10 terrorists killed, at one point of time, were found to be foreigners. This in itself disproves the theory of ideology since what interest can an Iranian or an Afghan mercenary have in the political status of Kashmir.

Role of Pak ISI
Most of the terrorist activities are carried out in India with the covert support of the Pakistan's ISI. The role of ISI in the 1993 Mumbai bomb blasts was established beyond doubt during the investigation. Pakistan still harbour a number of key figures, including Tiger Memon, responsible for this dastardly act. Delhi bomb blasts of 1996, Mumbai bomb blasts of 1997 and 1998 were also the handiworks of ISI. Attack on the American Centre in Kolkata and the Akshardham incident in Gujarat (both in 2002) revealed ISI's methodology.

Here I would like to dwell upon yet another aspect of the terror network. There lives in every community a group of individuals who harbour dangerous and malignant intentions internally. Such people live an orderly and law-abiding life following their chosen occupation like any good citizen. But, quietly almost insidiously, they prepare the ground for terrorism to take root. This is done in a subtle manner by planting certain ideas that they know to be palpably false but because of the stature of these individuals, they gain currency. Their imaginations, under the cloak of social work, weakens the very fabric of society and denudes the authority of law. The resultant loss of prestige in governance and low esteem of the people prepares a ready launching-pad for terrorism.

Reverting to ISI, strategic objectives of Pak ISI against India could be listed as follows:

To continue with the low intensity conflicts (Operation Destabilisation, Operation K2 and Operation Garland).

Political destabilisation by aiding, abetting and sponsoring terrorism, by narco-terrorism, smuggling of weapons and explosives and by creating communal conflicts.

Economic and financial manipulation through circulation of fake Indian currency and promotion of hawala channels.

Social destabilisation by promotion of religious fundamentalism and anti-India campaign.

Utilisation of other countries’ soil as springboard for terrorist strikes against India by helping Kashmiri and Sikh terrorists through criminal syndicates and smuggling networks.

Keeping these factors in view, all pre-1997 governments in New Delhi had projected the issue as Pakistan-sponsored terrorism against India to achieve its strategic objectives, without specifically relating Pakistan’s sponsorship only to the Kashmir issue and without using formulations such as cross-border terrorism, which tend to exclude infiltration of terrorists and arms and ammunition by Pakistan through air, sea and via third countries. They also kept the focus on Pakistan’s providing safe sanctuaries and training and other infrastructure to terrorists in its territory in order to justify the need for an action against such sanctuaries and infrastructure.

This has had two results which could be detrimental to India. First, the responsibility of Pakistan for terrorism in different parts of India has got blurred and the terrorism issue has got inextricably and solely linked with the Kashmir issue. Since the international community looks upon J&K as a disputed territory, over which Pakistan has historic claims since 1947, it does not view Pakistan’s sponsorship of terrorism in J&K with the same seriousness as it would have viewed its sponsorship in other parts of the country.

The attack on the Parliament House in New Delhi in December 2001, by Pakistan-based terrorists led to considerable support for India in the international community and recognition of India’s right of self-defence. At the same time, countries such as the US urged self-restraint upon India and, simultaneously, exerted pressure on the Pakistani military dictator to act against the terrorist infrastructure in Pakistani territory. This Western pressure on Pakistan, in the face of India’s mobilisation of its troops, led to some action by Musharraf, which, as widely anticipated, proved to be more a pretence than reality. As the West’s dependence on Musharraf to deal with terrorists in Pakistani territory posing a threat to Western lives and interests has increased, its readiness to mount pressure on Musharraf to act against those posing threats to Indian lives and interests has flagged. Musharraf has been none the worse for our coercive diplomacy, which seems to have run out of steam.

The mindset that prevailed and caused the creation of Pakistan still persists. Pakistan’s internal politics is Indo-centric and as such thrives on “hate-India” emotions. Pakistan takes financial help from across the world as a result of the tensions with India. These are the reasons why Pakistan is carrying out all these activities. There is one more thing that we need to look at seriously—the ISI’s network. In our country, people are restrained, at times apologetic while targeting the ISI network. A criminal is a criminal, a terrorist is a terrorist, and there is no religion of a criminal or a terrorist. It should not be weighed on the scale of secularism or through communal angles. ISI has modules. Here in Bhavnagar, we broke a module, and a Brahmin boy was caught, who is serving time in prison. ISI networks should not be linked with religion. These ISI modules have identified districts and social conflicts that can be exploited, how each one of them can be synergised to create mass-level disturbances, the blue-print of which has been made by them. ISI modules are working across the nation. But Gujarat has taken up the fight to them, and to a very large extent we have been able to notch up successes in this regard. I congratulate Gujarat Police for these achievements.

Another development has taken place; another organisation in Pakistan has been formed. This organisation has worked out a strategy to exploit whatever societal schisms that exist today in our nation. Like, recently they went to Goa, and bombed a church. While they bombed the church they left behind literature which could be identified with organisations like RSS, VHP, Bajrang Dal etc., as the 'secular' brigade in the media found it convenient to blame RSS for attacking a church, which makes a good headline and copy.

Same thing happened in Gujarat in the post-Ishrat case, with stories like ‘Modi has killed Ishrat’. The third day the media people were left with red faces with nowhere to hide when Pakistan issued a statement saying Ishrat was their operative and that they were proud that she had sacrificed her life for her country and Allah! It happens sometime, we have a love-hate relationship with the media. They get something to write for three-four days. You should have seen the section of national-level leaders react to that case, only thing left was to wrap her in the tri-color. They participated in her last rites; one political party paid one lakh rupees to the family. What warped mindsets do these people have!

Getting back to this outfit from Pakistan, they did the same thing in two-three other churches. They thought their strategy is working and decided to try their luck in Bangalore, but as fate would have it they were caught there. We were lucky that Karnataka had the Congress-ruled government. The car, computer and equipment confiscated by them revealed that all the literature that was found in Goa was printed through this equipment. It brought to light an Islamic organisation based in Pakistan, trying to create tensions between Hindus and Christians in the country. These new modules with their new approaches are what we need to be vary of. It is a very dangerous trend again, trying to exploit social conflict and through that aiming at creating grounds conducive for terrorism.

North-Eastern Region
Terrorism is not confined to the western border only. It is a matter of serious concern that the entire north-east region is afflicted with insurgency. Militant groups in specified localities are keen to preserve their ethnic, religious, linguistic and territorial identity and to achieve this goal they adopt various violent means. Their main targets are security forces, police informers, vital installations and people belonging to other community. They are principally involved in extortion, killing, kidnapping and robbery. Infiltration into India by Bangladeshi Muslims can be described as another facet of terrorism. Ostensibly, these illegal migrants cross over into India and settle down in the north-eastern states with the purpose of improving their lot by migrating to a prosperous country. However, it is these very individuals who also offer recruits to various terrorists organisations. No country in the world tolerate such a situation if for no other reason than for the mere fact that such illegal immigrants are a security threat. Yet despite large number of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, which is rightly justly objected to by the people of Assam and other states, no definitive action is being taken to deal with this menace. The soil of Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar is being used by violent groups and terrorists as centres. It is only the Government of Bhutan that took concrete and decisive steps to destroy terrorists camps in its territory. In the history of Independent India this was perhaps one of the best example on the part of a sovereign government to uphold the United Nations convention against terrorism. This diminutive country has put to shame her larger neighbours and set a magnificent example.

A case in point is ULFA (United Liberation Front of Assam), a militant organisation established on April 7, 1979, under the leadership of Paresh Baruah. While secession from India was the declared goal, the organisation adopted an anti-foreigner plank since this was the popular issue gripping the masses in Assam. The Assam agitation and several rounds of talks between the Central Government and leaders of the agitation resulted in the signing of Assam Accord on August 15, 1985. In the subsequent state assembly election held in December 1985, the Assam Gana Parishad (AGP) swept to power. At this stage, ULFA emphasised its basic objective, i.e. to “liberate Assam from Indian colonial rule” and to form a “sovereign, socialist Assam” through an armed struggle. As the Assam Accord and the subsequent political settlement were inimical to this objective, ULFA continued with its violent activities even after the AGP assumed power in the state. By 1986, ULFA had established contacts with agents of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), as well as with militants from the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN). ULFA has established a strong base in Bangladesh running several training camps, setting up many income-generating projects, namely, media consultancies, soft drinks manufacturing, hotels, private clinics and motor-driving schools. Moreover, ULFA also runs a profitable narcotics business in Myanmar and Thailand.

Left-Wing Extremism
Some of the states highly affected by left-wing extremism are Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Maharashtra. There has been qualitative and quantitative rise in left-wing extremism since 2001. The year 2003 witnessed the highest extremist violence with a total of 575 incidents in Andhra Pradesh alone. Their main targets are police, ruling political class and soft targets like railways and post & telegraph. They have expertise in IEDs and landmines. There was an abortive attempt on the life of AP Chief Minister with an IED in the year 2003, in which CPML-PW and MCC(1) activists were involved. Evidence shows that they have links with ULFA, CPN (Maoist) and SIMI. Recent attacks on police stations in Koraput district of Orissa show the capability of left-wing extremists to strike at will.

One of the most dangerous developments that should cause serious concern is the manner in which left-wing extremism is establishing linkages with foreign countries. The leftists want to connect their activity to China through Nepal with Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, parts of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. The ruthlessness of the Naxalites in these areas is now a matter of record. It is also a proven fact that negotiations with such armed terrorist groups have never helped. Instead, it has weakened the country’s social fabric and damaged the criminal justice system. In this background, the action of the present Government of Andhra Pradesh in opening negotiations with the People's War Group deserves to be condemned in no uncertain terms.

In the 1960’s Illustrated Weekly exposed a conspiracy to create a “Green Corridor”, by changing the demographics in a belt Lucknow upwards, which it described as a plan to divide Hindustan. Those days there was talk of this so-called secularism. Hence, Illustrated Weekly could bravely print that detailed article. It exposed a plan of dividing the nation by changing demographics. Now we have another danger that of the “Red Corridor”. Green Corridor to break up the top northern part of the country and now the Red Corridor to break the east part of the country. Maoists in Nepal, Bihar, Jharkhand and some parts of Maharashtra and then Andhra Pradesh has Naxalism—just one look at the map and you can gauge the gravity of the conspiracy. Right from Pasupati to Tirupati, a Red Corridor is being carved out through the Naxal activities. If roads are being made, they don’t let them make the roads, if roads are not being made, they agitate, these people are using emotional exploitation for fanning terrorism.

Crime and terrorism grow together as partners and expand their influence because they can exploit the democratic ideology of a free society that offers protection to everybody based on individual rights. Visitors and persons are welcomed into these free societies including those who may not respect the freedom and rights of others. A progressive democratic society that gives “equal rights and protection without discrimination” is thus vulnerable.

Over the past two decades, India has, as can be seen, been more and more engulfed by terrorism. Earlier it seemed far away, occurring only in the north-east. Terrorist violence, firstly in Punjab and then in Jammu & Kashmir, brought home the fact that no part of the country is actually free from this menace. The city of Mumbai witnessed it earlier on March 12, 1993, when a series of bomb blasts ripped the city as a consequence of an action planned by the intelligence agency of a hostile country and supported by Dawood Ibrahim group. In Gujarat, over a period of time, Gujarat police have succeeded in nabbing several criminals and terrorists who have revealed serious plans of subversion in the state. In the aftermath of the Godhra carnage, incidence at Akshardham, Gandhinagar, drives home the point conclusively that the state is an object of attention of militant groups. Indian security forces will have to be extremely vigilant if they are to deal with terrorism effectively. The pro-active role on their part will require a thorough knowledge not only of various militant groups operating within the state but also of those operating outside India but having important ramifications within India. Security forces officers will have to survey a wide canvass on which either terrorism takes roots or from where logistic support is provided to militants. For example, Taliban continues to be the primary hub for terrorists and a home or transit point for loosely organised extremist groups. Quite a few of them operate in Kashmir apart from engaging in terrorist acts throughout the world. It is not by accident that Al-Qaeda, which seeks to establish an Islamic theocracy throughout the world by overthrowing non-Islamic governments and liberal Islamic countries, was based in Afghanistan, which probably continues to be a hide-out for many of its splinter groups. Similarly, Pakistan today is perhaps the most dangerous place on this planet, largely because the administration does not understand the forces it has to deal with there, and has no policy to contain them. This is the country that possesses nuclear technology, is the home of fundamentalist terrorism and provides a regular supply of life-destroying heroin to the world. Existence of terrorist camps, where terrorists are trained and launched into India, pre-supposes that these desperadoes also move freely in the cities and towns of Pakistan. The risk that the administration of that country runs can hardly be over-emphasised. More importantly, the debilitating effect this has on the society, makes this nuclear-armed country in part ungoverned and in part ungovernable.

Development of technology and growth of communication have permitted close links between terrorism, crime and economic depredation.

Money, negotiable instruments, and electronic records can now be moved around the world in minutes instead of days. Incriminating records can almost as quickly be erased.

And money laundering is no longer a one-way street. It is a vicious circle whereby large assets can be sent out of a country in one form and be returned minutes later in another. The acquisition of real estate and legitimate businesses by organised crime has become an end in itself, the means by which organised crime figures acquire great influence in the legitimate channels of government and society.

Developing countries and emerging democracies are becoming a target for organised criminal groups operating across borders and terrorist modules within the country, because of their vulnerabilities, while their institutions are either young or in the process of being built. Often, the sophisticated modus operandi of these groups is no match to the criminal justice systems of developing countries and countries with economies in transition. The need for foreign capital to give new life to the economy and assist these countries in entering today’s competitive and demanding global market, frequently obscures the long-term threat posed by the investment of criminal proceeds. Criminal groups are keen to enter developing countries and economies in transition, not only because of their potential, but also because of the decreased risks involved. The advantages that such groups enjoy, due to the sizeable amounts of money at their disposal and their ability to eliminate competition through intimidation and violence, make risks that would daunt any legitimate business perfectly acceptable. The consolidation of their power places is a grave danger for the growing economies, particularly in terms of their future development, their competitiveness in the international arena and their stability.

The situation has become even more alarming with the expansion of organised crime and the growing tendency of organised criminal groups to diversify their operations in response to a principle that has been driving international business for reduced risks and maximization of profitability.

While retaining traditional activities, particularly those that continue to be lucrative, and finding new ways for eluding law-enforcement efforts, organised criminal groups are increasing their sophistication and turning to “borderline” economic endeavours. The advantages are obvious. Countries are still in the process of analysing the potential for malfeasance of a broad range of new economic activities and products available to individual and institutional investors, before they can even attempt to conceive, elaborate and enforce adequate regulations. In addition to the obvious advantage of concealing wealth and laundering proceeds, organised criminal groups are drawn to the great possibilities for reaping sizeable, perfectly legal profits before anyone has even realised whether there was anything wrong.

Finally, such activities come with added value—power, which organised crime has never shunned if the price for obtaining it was right. There is another feature in this type of crimes, which is both an additional advantage for criminal groups and an incalculable danger for modern societies. The successful engagement of criminals in economic crimes is often viewed by public as an act of cunning and even bravery. Social criticism for the perpetrator is directed not at the commission of the crime but at the failure to escape justice. This attitude is a sign of the times and amply demonstrates the corrosive effects that such crimes have on the social fabric. It is fundamental that this attitude be reserved, because it can prove equally or more dangerous than the offences themselves.

A significant corollary to the above is the diversion and investment of the illicit money (black money) acquired by committing such crimes, in furthering crimes, the organised and the organised trans-national kind and the hegemony of the criminal syndicates rule. The threats to the public security and eventually the national security would appear imminent as an ultimate consequence. Terrorist groups are the principal beneficiary.

Another term that is very popular is narco-terrorism. This refers to a nexus between narcotics and terrorism.

Sponsoring terrorism is an expensive affair and money for killing, kidnapping and sabotage does not come through proper channels. It comes through illegal and unofficial channels. The market value of narcotics drugs is much higher than any consumer products in the world.

Terrorism needs huge sums of money to carry out its operation. Since it is difficult to acquire that sum from official and legal sources, terrorists approach drug syndicates and underworld dons for cooperation. Following the attack on the twin towers in New York, the UN passed a resolution on September 12, 2001 to eradicate acts of terrorism and to hold accountable perpetrators of terrorism, which was followed by another resolution on September 20 (No.1373 condemning states sponsors terrorism).

The UN had passed many resolutions in the past, having a bearing on the state-sponsorship of terrorism, which is an important component of Pakistan’s proxy war, but never before had a resolution been passed in such specific terms as in UNSC Resolution No. 1373. India should have brought its entire political, diplomatic and psychological campaign against Pakistan’s state-sponsorship of terrorism within the ambit of this Resolution and drawn the attention of the international community through the UNSC and other means to Pakistan’s long history of sponsoring insurgency and terrorism in Indian territory for destabilising India and achieving its strategic objectives.

Pakistan has assisted insurgency in the north-east since the 1950s; supported the terrorists in Punjab since 1981; sponsored indigenous terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir since 1989 and pan-Islamic terrorism through pro-bin Laden Pakistani terrorist organisations in the same state since 1993; and instigated trans-national mafia groups such as that of Dawood Ibrahim to commit acts of economic terrorism since 1993.

An extraordinary similarity about various terrorist organisations has been the manner in which they are named using two, three or four alphabets. By the way of illustration consider the following:

JKLF (Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front)
ULFA (United Liberation Front of Assam)
KLF (Khalistan Liberation Front)
KCF (Khalistan Commando Force)
HUM (Harkat-ul-Mujahideen)
LeT (Lashkar-e-Toiba)
CIRA (Continuity Irish Republican Army)
UDFB (United Democratic Front of Bodoland)
UPDS (United Peoples Democratic Solidarity)
ACF (Adivasi Cobra Force)
PWG (People's War Group)
LTTE (Liberation Tigers Tamil Elam)

Thus the words liberation, solidarity, commando, force or united are a common feature in the names of these terrorist organisations. It establishes clearly that their creed is violence and that human rights and sensibilities are of no consequence when they clash with their political agenda.

The law-enforcement agencies of this country will have no other alternative but stand up to this challenge. But mere words will not suffice. One of the weakest aspects of our security is collection of hard intelligence. Law and order is a state subject under the Constitution and it is the responsibility of the state police force firstly to anticipate the happening and then to act to prevent it. Unfortunately, the intelligence apparatus in most states leave much to be desired. I strongly feel that matters pertaining to intelligence should be given priority and the shroud of fanatical secrecy should be lifted so as to analyse true worth of any intelligence agency. In order to create a cadre of dedicated officers, I would recommend setting-up of an all-India service, which could be called the Indian Intelligence Service. Members of this service should be in the same manner as IAS, IPS and IFS. Be born on the cadre of a particular state and then are available for service with the Central Government on deputation basis. The advantage of such a system would be to have at hand the committed and professional intelligence officers who could then be trusted to collect hard intelligence competently.

Another aspect that needs serious consideration is to provide legal support to law-enforcing agencies. We have replaced 303 rifles and given our crack units AK-56 rifles, and other sophisticated weaponry to deal with terrorists. This is an equipment that kills or destroys the terrorists. It is ironical that while we have given such power to our police forces, we have fought shy of equipping our law-enforcement agencies with adequate laws. Police in India are encumbered with illegal disabilities and are required to deal with the menace of terrorism using antiquated laws. When a proper law is put in place, such as POTA, it is summarily withdrawn for reasons, which no one can understand but can only speculate. Post-September 11, even United States of America came out with stringent laws against terrorism. They went two steps ahead and not only have made immigration procedures rather harsh but have also created an entire new department of Homeland Security so as to ensure its territory’s integrity against terrorist-related aggression. Unless the same is done in India, there is little hope for effective action against militancy.

Next on the agenda should be development of awareness amongst the masses. Citizens in general must be associated with the countries' preparations against security threats. The actions of certain groups including those who flourish under the guise of democratic conventions must be within the sphere of knowledge. In the West, these aspects have been studied and a strategy adopted with the help of media to the optimum benefit of these countries. Media has always played a constructive role in developed countries by never highlighting a terrorist act and never belittling the attempts of government to curb the same. How such an happy synthesis between the government, the people and the media has been achieved could be a matter of study in this country for emulation.

(The author is Chief Minister of Gujarat.)