September 05, 2007

Nuclear bomb attack against Mumbai

Dr. Gautam Sen

2nd September 2007

Mumbai is a likely potential target of a Pakistani nuclear bomb in the foreseeable future. It is more a question of ‘when’ the impending doomsday event is likely to occur rather than ‘if’. The political backdrop of the spiral into nuclear Armageddon will be a decisive collapse in Pakistan of centralised administrative control. This alarming scenario is already unfolding rapidly and associated with the rise to prominence of Islamists at every level of government and society in Pakistan. The Ghazi State sponsored by Britain in a malicious pique to harass India, the country she was reluctant to free, is unravelling.

A huge swathe of Pakistani society, from retired generals and scientists to civil servants and serving armed forces officers, is espousing an apocalyptic Islamic vision of the future. Once governmental authority falters these Jihadi individuals and groups, fuelled by despondency and rage, may be in a position to translate their terrifying view of the world into reality. The larger context to the intensifying collective imbecility, which had overtaken Germany during the 1930s as well, is a demographic catastrophe afflicting Pakistan. An approximate third of the population (45 million plus) are males between the ages of 10 and 40, many destined to remain unemployed in adulthood and seized of a fierce religiosity. Their sole raison d’être will become bloodlust and the subjugation of pagan Hindus.

The specific immediate reason for a decision to explode a nuclear bomb will be a combination of collective religious hysteria brought on by national social disintegration and fear of the outside world. Should the US and its allies decide that Pakistan is on the verge of collapse, with all the attendant dangers implied for them, they might be tempted to intervene. Such intervention would aim to neutralise Pakistan’s weapons of mass destruction. The Pakistani elites in power, the very Islamists, whose rise to political power frightened the West in the first place, will then face a use-them or lose-them choice as far as their nuclear weapons are concerned. The irony is that the US allowed Pakistan to acquire nuclear weapons and ignored its extraordinary proliferation activities.

Nevertheless, Pakistan will not contemplate using nuclear weapons against Western targets because the US and its allies have a credible policy of massive retaliation. The policy is well understood and Pakistan’s leaders know that the West would not hesitate to retaliate massively. However, a demonstration of their own political resolve by using them elsewhere to intimidate the West would appear a ‘rational policy’ choice. The target of such a demonstration would inevitably be India, the object of visceral Islamic hatred and withering contempt for its propensity for endless vacillation. More relevant, India has no credible deterrence strategy, which is a recipe for national suicide since it invites nuclear attack. Nor can India expect any help from other countries in a crisis of such gravity that threatens the very own existence.

The choice of India as a target rather than the US or Israel, hated bitterly but also feared, is because of the utter bankruptcy of India’s political class and administrative apparatus. They have become businessmen for whom the bottom line of making money has a very high priority. Personal enrichment, sending their children to the US for education and enjoying a good life in general have displaced concern for their fellow citizens and the country that they share. This rot transcends party politics, as scrutiny of the increase in wealth of virtually any individual politician or senior bureaucrat over a modest span of time would confirm. As a result, something as serious as nuclear testing took place though neither a deterrence policy nor political assessment of its consequences were in place at the time. Incredibly, there was expectation of electoral gain.

India still doesn’t have a credible deterrence strategy in place, which signals to both Pakistan and China that attacking India absolutely guarantees retaliation. Guaranteed retaliation and exhibiting political will to make it credible are imperative for putting the fear of god in potential attackers. Both are lacking in India. Pakistani decision-makers would be justified in assuming that having lost Mumbai and much of its geographic vicinity Indian politicians are likely to reason that sacrificing even more by retaliating and precipitating a wider nuclear exchange would be foolish. Of course the very threat that the country attacked would not shrink from launching a wider nuclear exchange is how the initial attack is supposed to be deterred in the first place. It is probable that Indian politicians would look to the UN, mouth Gandhian slogans and simply absorb the loss of Mumbai. This is how they have responded to terrorist bombs across the country in recent memory instead of delivering crushing blows to India’s adversaries.

The reason for exploding a nuclear bomb in Mumbai is a compelling one because of its high economic value, exceeding that of any other Indian city, apart from Delhi. Pakistan would also avoid targeting Delhi because Indian politicians would need to survive to take the decision not to retaliate against it. Without its political leadership India might end up in the hands of belligerent senior defence personnel more inclined to pay Pakistan back in the same coin. Besides, the destruction of Mumbai with an well-aimed nuclear bomb, say, somewhere near Mahakali, would destroy the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, causing even greater mayhem. The erasure of Mumbai from the map, the city harbouring political legacy of Shivaji, the indomitable nemesis of Islamic power in India, would settle a supplementary historical score as well as devastating India’s economy indefinitely. Kolkata, with its huge Muslim population and economic insignificance would not be sufficiently high impact. And Bangladesh may have reservations about losing its future capital city. By comparison, Chennai’s disappearance in a nuclear holocaust would barely make it to the front pages of Western newspapers.

The stymieing of POTA because of Islamic blackmail and its financial inducements to Indian political parties has made it easy to physically deliver a nuclear bomb to any Indian city. A large suitcase or at best a vehicle would suffice. Entering India through Bangladesh or Nepal with the connivance of the notoriously corrupt security apparatus of UP and Bihar has now become commonplace. Such a nuclear bomb would be remarkably simple to assemble and even easier to explode. Its delivery to Mumbai without resort to missiles and bomber aircraft would also offer a fig leaf of protection to the Pakistani authorities, which could deny direct involvement. In any case, the highest officers of the Indian government, the prime minister and home minister, have already announced that Pakistan is a victim of terrorism as well and should not always be blamed for bombs planted in India. All these astonishing acts of treachery will come back to haunt India.

India could even now prevent this calamity of biblical proportions by preparing for it. The problem is who has the courage and the foresight to do so? The first step would be to vastly accelerate the production of missiles and extend their reach deep into China. Enough fissile material exists for India to create a nuclear arsenal of 1000-1500 missiles. A sufficiently large number of nuclear missiles ensures a viable second strike and therefore deters the threat of a successful first strike to disable them in one unanticipated pre-emptive attack. The second measure would be a political one. It is necessary for India, once its nuclear weapons are immune to a successful first strike, to instigate a discussion that would signal to its adversaries that India would not behave rationally if any of its cities were to be attacked.

Since Pakistan’s nuclear missiles originate with China and North Korea a public discussion, which the government could duplicitously repudiate, should suggest that India might retaliate against Chinese and North Korean cities. It would also be appropriate to suggest that important cities in the Middle East would be obliterated in a retaliatory nuclear strike since some countries there have funded Pakistan’s nuclear programme. This public speculation would constitute a powerful signal that would keep India’s historic tormentors guessing. The three potential target countries concerned have huge leverage over Pakistan and can dissuade it from dire actions against India. And no Pakistani nuclear bomb could be used without the active collaboration of Pakistan’s political and military leadership, regardless of how fanatical they are themselves and the freedom enjoyed by Pakistan’s Islamic terrorists. Alas, India’s leaders are too secular to even fight for the survival of their nation. They would rather witness the end of their civilisation and escape with a green card to America to join their children.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

The view seems a bit extreme, but the reasoning is hard to refute. When we total the casualty figures ever since our dear neighbour(s) have unleashed terror on us, the count would do credit to a modest sized nuclear bomb. Yet out politicians choose to mouth platitudes, dole out some rupees as compensation and appoint a committee (to do what??) The real problem gets lost somewhere in the vote banks.

Anonymous said...

Excellent Analysis.

Please visit the Biggest threat for India from inside

http://www.danielpipes.org/comments/105637

An Mega Terror Attack by Pakistani Jihadists will be a pre-text for Jihadists in India to start a civil war to destroy India from with in. and right we don't see any Leader or General who recognises this Threat and plans any ways to counter it.

Anonymous said...

I wonder why our " ALLY " musharaf is not acting against other Islamist Terrorist Groups which are more dangerous to West ...

Lashkar-e-Omar (LeO)
Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM)
Harkat-ul-Ansar (HuA, presently known as Harkat-ul Mujahideen)
Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT)
Jaish-e-Mohammad Mujahideen E-Tanzeem (JeM)
Harkat-ul Mujahideen (HuM, previously known as Harkat-ul-Ansar)
Al Badr
Jamait-ul-Mujahideen (JuM)
Lashkar-e-Jabbar (LeJ)
Harkat-ul-Jehad-i-Islami
Al Barq
Tehrik-ul-Mujahideen
Al Jehad
Jammu & Kashir National Liberation Army
People's League
Muslim Janbaz Force
Kashmir Jehad Force
Al Jehad Force (combines Muslim Janbaz Force and Kashmir Jehad Force)
Al Umar Mujahideen
Mahaz-e-Azadi
Islami Jamaat-e-Tulba
Jammu & Kashmir Students Liberation Front
Ikhwan-ul-Mujahideen
Islamic Students League
Tehrik-e-Hurriat-e-Kashmir
Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Fiqar Jafaria
Al Mustafa Liberation Fighters
Tehrik-e-Jehad-e-Islami
Muslim Mujahideen
Al Mujahid Force
Tehrik-e-Jehad
Islami Inquilabi Mahaz
and list is endless.

These all are Islamist Terrorist Organisations which are now allied with Al Qaida and are committed to the Global Islamic Cause of World Jehad Movement.

Pervez Mushraf can only be trusted if he acts decisively against atleast three Islamist groups like ,

Jaish e Mohamad ( Maulana Masood AZhar )

Lashkar e Toiba

Hizbul Mujahideen

Muttahida Jehad Council

I am sure US and its Counter Terrorism Experts knows the facts that Musharaf is only fooling them by using age old , time tested Islamist Tactics of deception called Taqqiya which was used Jehadis to fool " Kuffar " ( Non Muslims as per Islam ).

Green Apple Agent said...

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