By B.Raman
Till March 26,2007, the Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF) enjoyed the command of the skies. There was no opposition to its punitive strikes against the positions held by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTW) in the Eastern and Northern Provinces and to its intimidatory strikes against the Sri Lankan Tamil population, inflicting a large number of civilian casualties. The LTTE faced difficulty in countering the punitive and intimidatory air strikes of the SLAF. This was due to a serious depletion of its anti-aircraft capability and the difficulties faced by it in procuring anti-aircraft guns and ammunition and surface-to-air missiles.
2. As a result of this, the Sri Lankan authorities did not consider it necessary to provide strengthened anti-aircraft defences to their army, naval and air force stations in the Tamil areas. They feared only land-based threats to them. They did not anticipate any threat from the air.
3. The position has since changed as a result of the LTTE's Tamil Eelam Air Force (TAF) going into action since March 26,2007, and demonstrating its capability for conventional air operations on ground-based targets and to evade the anti-aircraft defences. The TAF has already carried out three successful air strikes on ground targets of a strategic significance----two in the Colombo area and one in the Jaffna area.
4. The psychological and economic impact of these strikes has unnerved the Sri Lankan authorities. The psychological impact has been in denting the self-confidence of the Sri Lankan security forces and affecting their credibility in the eyes of the public. The economic impact has been on tourism. Flights of nervous international airlines were affected and there was a decline in tourist arrivals.
5. The expected operations of the armed forces to recover territory under the control of the LTTE in the Northern Province have not yet materialised. The SLAF has not been as active as it used to be before the TAF went into action. Fearing more strikes by the TAF, the Government of President Mahinda Rajapakse has given priority to strengthening the anti-aircraft defences in Colombo and Jaffna. Apart from taking conventional measures such as providing anti-aircraft guns and ammunition to all major military posts in the Northern and Eastern Provinces, it has also entered into negotiations with Pakistan and China for the purchase of surface-to-air missiles.
6. Taking advantage of this, the LTTE has embarked on a policy of identifying military posts where anti-aircraft defences have been set up, raiding them and capturing the anti-aircraft weapons supplied to them. It was in pursuance of this tactics that the LTTE raided a strategic naval base at Delft, an islet off the northern Jaffna peninsula, shortly after midnight on May 24,2007, dismantled its anti-aircraft defences and took away two anti-aircraft guns with ammunition, two Israeli machine guns, one rocket-propelled grenade launcher and eight assault rifles. They badly damaged the base infrastructure and withdrew after killing over 20 sailors of the Sri Lankan Navy. The raid lasted about two hours. The officers at the base frantically kept asking for an air strike against the raiding Sea Tigers and their boats, but the SLAF did not come to their help. Later, it claimed that the SLAF went into action and attacked the Sea Tiger boats as they were withdrawing and inflicted casualties and damage. There has been no corroboration of this so far.
7.The Government has not yet been able to remove the nervousness caused in Sri Lankan and foreign business circles----particularly among those in the civil aviation and tourism sectors---in the wake of the TAF's air raids in the Colombo area. Fear of an LTTE retaliation from the air continues to have a negative impact on the Government and the Security Forces.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: itschen36@gmail.com )
May 26, 2007
Pakistan Disappeared : Video
Have Pakistan’s security forces secretly detained hundreds of suspected terrorists? Reports are growing that the government is using the war on terror as an excuse for a general clampdown.
“We want our husbands and sons back”, laments one woman. Human Rights groups claim hundreds of people have been arrested and their detention officially denied. “The government has been using the war on terror as an excuse to suppress political opposition”. Relatives of the missing are now trying to use the courts to find out info about their loved ones
Cilck and Watch
“We want our husbands and sons back”, laments one woman. Human Rights groups claim hundreds of people have been arrested and their detention officially denied. “The government has been using the war on terror as an excuse to suppress political opposition”. Relatives of the missing are now trying to use the courts to find out info about their loved ones
Cilck and Watch
Are the Diamonds Forever?
POLICE RAID DIAMOND DEALERS
Are the Diamonds Forever?
By Carol Matlack
A crackdown in Antwerp threatens the city's historic gem trade.
REUTERS
Dealmaking is part of the scenery in Antwerp's centuries-old diamond district. Passing one another on the narrow streets, traders nod in greeting while talking into cell phones. A black-hatted Hasidic broker, spotting a prospective customer, pulls a clear plastic bag of tiny, sparkling stones from his overcoat and launches into a rapid-fire sales pitch. At a nearby café, two men take turns peering through a jeweler's loupe at a pile of diamonds between their coffee cups.
But lately the buzz of commerce has been tinged with anxiety. Over the past 18 months police have repeatedly swept in, raiding offices and hauling away papers and gems as evidence in investigations of money laundering and tax evasion. One trader died of a heart attack during a police search of his home last December, prompting a protest by fellow traders, who shut down the district for a day.
Although fewer than 20 of Antwerp's nearly 2,000 trading companies have been raided, police have seized tens of millions of dollars' worth of diamonds. The gems are held as evidence while the probe continues. Adding to the tension, DeBeers Group's trading arm, which supplies 50 percent of the world's diamonds, warned Antwerp traders that they could be cut off if they don't follow industry rules against money laundering.
Traders say the pressure is spooking suppliers and customers alike, sending them to rival centers in Dubai, India, and Israel. Imports of rough diamonds, the uncut stones that are Antwerp's main business, fell 20 percent in April, though year-to-date figures remain above 2006. "People are afraid and upset," trader Shashin Choksi says, sitting in his office next to a refrigerator-size safe full of jewels.
Moving Money
No question, the $70 billion-a-year global diamond business has some ugly facets. Easy to transport and hard to trace, the precious stones are a favored vehicle for financing illicit activity, from drug trafficking to terrorism. "The diamond industry is very secretive. Large amounts of money can be moved around, and it's relatively easy to misstate the value," says Alex Vines, a former U.N. diamond-trade investigator who now heads the Africa program at Chatham House, part of London's Royal Institute of International Affairs.
Belgian authorities won't discuss their investigation. But the Diamond High Council, a quasi-governmental agency that oversees the Antwerp trade, says recent raids stemmed from a probe of a diamond shipping company, Monstrey Worldwide Services. Agents searched the company in October, 2005, and arrested its owner in a money-laundering investigation. Monstrey has shut its doors and no one from the company could be reached for comment, but police have seized the inventories of at least 16 traders who were its customers.
Antwerp traders fear the crackdown could end the city's reign as the world's No. 1 diamond center. Antwerp's first exchange opened in the 15th century, and although most cutting and polishing has relocated to cheaper locales such as China, 80% of the world's uncut diamonds still pass through the city. "If rough diamonds disappear from Antwerp, it is finished," says Koen Smets, a Belgian who buys diamonds from local traders and sends them to a factory in China for finishing.
The threat to their livelihood has united Antwerp's multicultural diamond community as never before. Over the past decade a growing population of Indians has gradually displaced Orthodox Jews as the dominant group of traders. But now, says third-generation Jewish trader Ziv Knoll, "we're all in the same boat." Knoll says he knows several traders who are relocating to Dubai and Tel Aviv. If the raids continue, he says, he may do the same. "We can't continue to work with constant harassment."
Matlack is BusinessWeek's Paris bureau chief.
Are the Diamonds Forever?
By Carol Matlack
A crackdown in Antwerp threatens the city's historic gem trade.
REUTERS
Dealmaking is part of the scenery in Antwerp's centuries-old diamond district. Passing one another on the narrow streets, traders nod in greeting while talking into cell phones. A black-hatted Hasidic broker, spotting a prospective customer, pulls a clear plastic bag of tiny, sparkling stones from his overcoat and launches into a rapid-fire sales pitch. At a nearby café, two men take turns peering through a jeweler's loupe at a pile of diamonds between their coffee cups.
But lately the buzz of commerce has been tinged with anxiety. Over the past 18 months police have repeatedly swept in, raiding offices and hauling away papers and gems as evidence in investigations of money laundering and tax evasion. One trader died of a heart attack during a police search of his home last December, prompting a protest by fellow traders, who shut down the district for a day.
Although fewer than 20 of Antwerp's nearly 2,000 trading companies have been raided, police have seized tens of millions of dollars' worth of diamonds. The gems are held as evidence while the probe continues. Adding to the tension, DeBeers Group's trading arm, which supplies 50 percent of the world's diamonds, warned Antwerp traders that they could be cut off if they don't follow industry rules against money laundering.
Traders say the pressure is spooking suppliers and customers alike, sending them to rival centers in Dubai, India, and Israel. Imports of rough diamonds, the uncut stones that are Antwerp's main business, fell 20 percent in April, though year-to-date figures remain above 2006. "People are afraid and upset," trader Shashin Choksi says, sitting in his office next to a refrigerator-size safe full of jewels.
Moving Money
No question, the $70 billion-a-year global diamond business has some ugly facets. Easy to transport and hard to trace, the precious stones are a favored vehicle for financing illicit activity, from drug trafficking to terrorism. "The diamond industry is very secretive. Large amounts of money can be moved around, and it's relatively easy to misstate the value," says Alex Vines, a former U.N. diamond-trade investigator who now heads the Africa program at Chatham House, part of London's Royal Institute of International Affairs.
Belgian authorities won't discuss their investigation. But the Diamond High Council, a quasi-governmental agency that oversees the Antwerp trade, says recent raids stemmed from a probe of a diamond shipping company, Monstrey Worldwide Services. Agents searched the company in October, 2005, and arrested its owner in a money-laundering investigation. Monstrey has shut its doors and no one from the company could be reached for comment, but police have seized the inventories of at least 16 traders who were its customers.
Antwerp traders fear the crackdown could end the city's reign as the world's No. 1 diamond center. Antwerp's first exchange opened in the 15th century, and although most cutting and polishing has relocated to cheaper locales such as China, 80% of the world's uncut diamonds still pass through the city. "If rough diamonds disappear from Antwerp, it is finished," says Koen Smets, a Belgian who buys diamonds from local traders and sends them to a factory in China for finishing.
The threat to their livelihood has united Antwerp's multicultural diamond community as never before. Over the past decade a growing population of Indians has gradually displaced Orthodox Jews as the dominant group of traders. But now, says third-generation Jewish trader Ziv Knoll, "we're all in the same boat." Knoll says he knows several traders who are relocating to Dubai and Tel Aviv. If the raids continue, he says, he may do the same. "We can't continue to work with constant harassment."
Matlack is BusinessWeek's Paris bureau chief.
Economic intelligence : France to launch 4 year research programme
Support of CNRS for research a four-year programme in economic intelligence
May 21, 2007
CNRS launched a research programme four years in economic intelligence starting in 2007.
CNRS launched a research programme four years in economic intelligence starting in 2007. This program is placed under the direction of Pr Clement Paoli (University of the Marne the Valley) and will associate the CERIC (university of Montpellier 3 - coordinator: A. Mucchielli), the UMR 6171 (CNRS/University of Aix Marseilles 3 - coordinator J. Kister), the LORIA (University of Nancy - coordinator: A. David) and the IRIT (University of Toulouse - coordinator B. Dousset). An annual financing of 40.000 euros was notified by CNRS for animation and operation in network of this collaboration, which will relate to three research orientations:
the use of the economic intelligence for the projection of the French influence at the international level
the creation of value within the framework of the communication and information sciences
the development of new tools within the framework of the machine analysis of information and the diffusion of these results within the framework of co-operative work.
Within the framework of this program, a French-speaking international conference associating researchers of the universities of Bologna, Turin and Madrid will be organized in Venice of the 24 at June 28, 2007 on the topic “the problems arising from the valorization of the data: theories, methods, tools”.
May 21, 2007
CNRS launched a research programme four years in economic intelligence starting in 2007.
CNRS launched a research programme four years in economic intelligence starting in 2007. This program is placed under the direction of Pr Clement Paoli (University of the Marne the Valley) and will associate the CERIC (university of Montpellier 3 - coordinator: A. Mucchielli), the UMR 6171 (CNRS/University of Aix Marseilles 3 - coordinator J. Kister), the LORIA (University of Nancy - coordinator: A. David) and the IRIT (University of Toulouse - coordinator B. Dousset). An annual financing of 40.000 euros was notified by CNRS for animation and operation in network of this collaboration, which will relate to three research orientations:
the use of the economic intelligence for the projection of the French influence at the international level
the creation of value within the framework of the communication and information sciences
the development of new tools within the framework of the machine analysis of information and the diffusion of these results within the framework of co-operative work.
Within the framework of this program, a French-speaking international conference associating researchers of the universities of Bologna, Turin and Madrid will be organized in Venice of the 24 at June 28, 2007 on the topic “the problems arising from the valorization of the data: theories, methods, tools”.
The flaws in the Chinese economic miracle
THE REALITY BEHIND THE WORLD'S WORKSHOP - The flaws in the Chinese economic miracle
Jean-Louis Rocca
Le Monde diplomatique, May 2007
China, with its unique mix of authoritarian government and rampant capitalism, is often portrayed as a fast-growing and malignant cancer that threatens the rest of the world's economies. But the reality is far more complex. China is struggling with mass migration, skills shortages and millions of unemployed graduates.
China and its teeming armies of workers seem to have become the focus of all our economic anxieties. We worry that the People's Republic will become the chief demon in a futur nightmare for our world: a capitalist-communist global power that combines leftwing authoritarianism with capitalist exploitation. We fear that our own people will become unemployed because of the outsourcing of production to China, the world's workshop.
But we have to think about Chinese labour differently, and not concentrate solely on the workshop aspect of the economy. We need to take account of a disparate, sometimes contradictory mix of economic, political and cultural elements. The labour-intensive industries with their industrial revolution exploitation affect only a fraction of China's enormous population. They cannot function on their own without interconnecting with other types of labour.
Agriculture is the only sector of the Chinese economy that has not been transformed by the new capitalism. Its labour force has not been turned into merchandise; the return to small family holdings of land has not led to new kinds of labour exploitation, nor has membership of the World Trade Organisation. Only collective ownership of land, currently being tested by a growing market in "utilisation rights" (1), still shows the traditional conservatism of the state. Agricultural labour policy remains highly political. There are of course considerations of food security, but the policy also allows the government to control a population that, if deprived of its means of production and social network, could turn migrant and invade the cities.
The government's aim is not to prevent migration but to regulate it; to prevent brutal urbanisation and allow migrants to return to their villages if the economy declines. The reality fits this strategy since most migrants do not see departure as a total break with their native villages. Agriculture remains as a fallback position, while the social network provides a structure for population movements, since most migrants are introduced to their employers by friends or family.
Around 120 to 150 million migrant farmers are subject to capitalist exploitation. More than half these peasant-workers (mingong) work in factories or on building sites. The remainder find jobs in catering and hotel businesses, retailing, security or even in garbage recycling (2). Some 80% of migrants abandon their land without actually leaving the countryside. They work in local industry; 50% never leave their native province. Their working conditions are not necessarily better than those of their peers in the global-supply sweatshops on the east coast, but their experiences do not match the traditional picture of the capitalist hell that is, for example, endured by China's miners.
Leaving for the cities
The authorities have changed the way they view migrations. Their social aspect was almost totally ignored during the 1980s and early 1990s, when liberal ideas about managing the labour force blended with a view that the migrations would not be large-scale or permanent. More recent developments, notably China's membership of the World Trade Organisation, have forced leaders to look more closely at rural employment. The stagnation of agriculture, and the importance to China's growth of the construction industry and sectors that are not capital intensive, have made the migrations strategically valuable. Researchers and civil servants now predict the progressive urbanisation of a large segment of the migrants, and some believe their living conditions should be improved to boost slackening domestic consumption.
The government is even considering an economic policy for migrants which includes housing them in cities hit by property speculation, giving those with no social security access to health care, educating their children (most have no access to schools) and persuading bosses (not just
capitalists but the heads of state construction companies) to actually pay their workers. These are not just grand philosophical principles, nor are they the effect of outside influences on Chinese disorder. These vital issues will set the conditions for continued growth in relative social
stability.
A trend that could be called "social capitalism" has emerged, popular among sociologists, journalists, congress delegates, civil servants and Chinese Communist party (CPP) members, which holds that while capitalism is good, it must go hand-in-hand with social policy. Proponents believe that a mechanism for redistributing wealth is necessary; wage increases for the lowest paid would boost flagging domestic demand.
The same people defend the idea that Chinese society should become more middle class as the only way to prevent a class war between rich and poor; and they believe some migrants should have access to this new middle stratum. This idea clashes, sometimes violently but usually discreetly, with the views of the free marketeers, who disapprove of social policy. The division doesn't reflect the reformist/conservative divide, though.
Some social capitalists have a nationalistic vision of capitalism and dream of Chinese state multinationals ruling the world. Others favour amore mercantilised capitalism. The economic liberals are not united; some are ultra-liberal, others favour a modicum of social policy. A hardline economic liberal may be a virulent anti-democrat and believe that only a strong government can control the market, and be hawkish in
international relations. The labour issue has arisen at a time when a small elite, not just CCP leaders and senior officials but also "elected" representatives, leaders of mass movements and the intelligentsia, is expressing a wide variety of opinions.
Adopting a social policy for migrant workers raises financial problems and might affect the future of the Chinese economic miracle. Many leaders ask if raising the cost of labour and providing social benefits might not be detrimental to China's competitiveness. Some point to the shortage of unskilled labour in certain areas of Guangdong province and ask if it is the result of a refusal to accept the conditions and wages
offered by the world's workshop, or the result of recent massive investment to open up the Chinese west? Or is it a demographic effect of the one-child policy (3)? The answer is probably "all of the above".
Migrants are not going home
It is clear that improved wages and living conditions, especially in Shanghai and in Fujian province where employers complain less of a labour shortage, have tempted many migrants to leave Guangdong province and head north. Perhaps migrants now have better knowledge of the labour market. The recent 23% increase in the minimum wage in Shenzhen shows that the remuneration of the new working class is a major issue. The mass return of migrant workers to the country is now considered hypothetical; surveys show that many farmers believe that their own futures lie in the cities. And the development of western China is only beginning. Perhaps the geographic trend is a result of changes in production along the coastal region. Labour-intensive industries are gradually moving to central China, while the eastern seaboard is turning to higher value-added employment. This redistribution would explain the emergence of a few local social security initiatives; companies on the coast need to ensure that they have access to a better-skilled and stable workforce.
China also has unemployment, which should be remembered by those who see it as the empire of labour. The official unemployment rate may be low; 4.1% of the urban population in 2006, although this does not include unemployed migrants or "off-post" workers who have lost their jobs but still depend on their company (the xiagang zhigong) (4). Nor does it include the unemployed who have reached the end of their entitlements, or the young jobless who have never paid contributions and are not entitled to benefits. Though there has been a significant increase in job applications since 2004, these are mostly for "informal" jobs (feizhenggui) without contract or social security. In urban areas "official" jobs are in the minority. Many former state employees remain out of work or only find jobs in the informal sector as auxiliary traffic police or security guards (5).
The most recent estimates reveal a tense situation. In 2006 the state provided 25m jobs for the urban population, 9m of them to labour market entrants, 3m to migrants (that this category was mentioned at all shows how the official line has changed) and 13m to workers who had lost jobs because of restructuring in the state sector. In reality, only 11.84m work contracts with social security entitlements were created
in 2006 (6). This year 24 million young people are expected to enter a labour market with only 12m new jobs (including places left by retirees) (7). The gap will be filled in part by unofficial jobs.
Effects on the young
The repercussions of the industrial restructuring in the second half of the 1990s that ended the jobs of millions of workers are still being felt. Urban unemployment is no longer confined to the older generation of "iron rice bowl" workers. The pretexts used to get rid of them implied that this
surplus generation was unable to adapt to market change and had to be sacrificed to make way for better-educated and more adaptable youth. But research in 2005 in the cities of Dalian, Tianjin, Changsha and Liuzhou showed that unemployment among 15-29 year-olds was 9% compared with 6.1% for the urban population as a whole.
According to Shen Jie, a sociology researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: "Most young people are in jobs with no social security or stability. They work long hours for poor wages." These are unskilled school leavers with the equivalent of a high-school diploma. They are unlikely to be in competition with the migrants for dirty jobs but do not
have the training for jobs in the new sectors.
Cohorts of jobless young people are looked after by residents' committees and street offices, the lowest administrative levels. They are given temporary tasks in the non-trade community sector such as security or maintenance, or hold low-level jobs in the trade-related activities that
are developing, such as hotels, restaurants and stores. Quotas are reserved for them in jobs considered inferior but still better paid and more highly prized than those given to the migrant workers. These young people are gradually forming a welfare-supported proletariat between the middle class and the migrants. The better off may refuse lowly jobs and live off their parents, who, if they can afford it, may send them
abroad to obtain a qualification from a second-rate business or hotel management school. (France is one of the most popular destinations.)
But unemployment also affects young graduates. These have risen from 1.07 million in 2000 to 4.13 million in 2006; by 2010, 23% of the young will be graduates (8). The Chinese economy is having trouble absorbing such numbers. They were almost half the 9 million young people who entered the labour market in 2006 expecting to find work in the "new sector". An estimated 60% of 2006 graduates did not find jobs that year.
There is a paradox; major Chinese and foreign enterprises complain of a shortage of skilled, tech-savvy labour, yet young graduates are unable to find jobs (see `Graduates without prospects', left). Employers claim that their education does not reflect market requirements, and there is
a lack of mobility among job seekers. China's development model is still predominantly based on unskilled labour. Graduate starting salaries are very low. According to a survey in 2005, 20.3% earn less than $129 a month and 65.4% get a maximum $259. These low financial rewards are hardly likely to foster a new Chinese middle class.
Few hard facts
Faced with the seriousness of the situation, the last session of the National People's Congress discussed a law promoting employment and setting some major objectives; to improve coordination between the cities and the countryside, provide free "job shop" services, remove all segregation in employment, bring in new measures for unemployed young people without university or secondary school qualifications,
develop professional training, and provide greater assistance to young graduates in finding their first jobs. But translating these measures into reality depends on what concrete measures national and local authorities will take.
There are few hard facts about Chinese labour. Surveys are infrequent and fragmentary and the categories used in official statistics are rarely reliable. The labour force is used according to political/economic thinking primarily motivated by stability. The existence of a state-aided sector limits competition between urban and migrant workers. The
state is able to keep part of the population in the countryside by maintaining a traditional sector of activity there, while restricting the flow to the cities. Modern jobs being developed in sectors such as telecommunications, finance and advertising provide jobs for some children of former state workers left by the wayside following the restructuring of state enterprises. The government enables these young people, who will fill future, or existing, employment needs, to join the workforce and work their way up to more sophisticated production.
This would not be possible with a fully centralised and all-knowing labour management policy which would result in growing unrest. The police are likely to have a different point of view of social stability in relation to migrant living conditions than would cadres in charge of economic policies or social security management, or ideological chiefs
and the official unions. These potential differences of opinion provide opportunities for action by associations defending the rights of migrants. They can explain that the best strategy is to show local government and bosses that a well-treated workforce is both more efficient and more
stable. This would gain them the support of many trade unionists who hope that the present conflicts between workers and private-sector bosses will make their movement legitimate. As one explained:"Opposing the illegal actions of capitalists does not mean opposing government policy. On the contrary, it means upholding the law."
________________________________________________________
(1) Land remains state-owned but the farmers own the right to
use it and hence to rent it.
(2) Major Chinese cities are mostly cleaned by these
recyclers who wander up and down the main streets in search
of waste that can be sold (at a low price) to salvage
companies.
(3) Chinese economists are having a lively debate on this.
See Philip Bowring, "Labor need haunts China", International
Herald Tribune, 8 April 2006.
(4) These are workers who have been laid off but are still
being paid by their work units. This category will soon
disappear and the xiagang zhigong will gradually join the
unemployed.
(5) See Martine Bulard, "China breaks the iron rice bowl", Le
Monde diplomatique, English edition, January 2007.
(6) 2006 Chinese government report.
(7) 2007 Chinese government report.
(8) See David Langue, "Chinese paradox: A shallow pool of
talent", International Herald Tribune, 25 April 2006.
Translated by Krystyna Horko
Jean-Louis Rocca
Le Monde diplomatique, May 2007
China, with its unique mix of authoritarian government and rampant capitalism, is often portrayed as a fast-growing and malignant cancer that threatens the rest of the world's economies. But the reality is far more complex. China is struggling with mass migration, skills shortages and millions of unemployed graduates.
China and its teeming armies of workers seem to have become the focus of all our economic anxieties. We worry that the People's Republic will become the chief demon in a futur nightmare for our world: a capitalist-communist global power that combines leftwing authoritarianism with capitalist exploitation. We fear that our own people will become unemployed because of the outsourcing of production to China, the world's workshop.
But we have to think about Chinese labour differently, and not concentrate solely on the workshop aspect of the economy. We need to take account of a disparate, sometimes contradictory mix of economic, political and cultural elements. The labour-intensive industries with their industrial revolution exploitation affect only a fraction of China's enormous population. They cannot function on their own without interconnecting with other types of labour.
Agriculture is the only sector of the Chinese economy that has not been transformed by the new capitalism. Its labour force has not been turned into merchandise; the return to small family holdings of land has not led to new kinds of labour exploitation, nor has membership of the World Trade Organisation. Only collective ownership of land, currently being tested by a growing market in "utilisation rights" (1), still shows the traditional conservatism of the state. Agricultural labour policy remains highly political. There are of course considerations of food security, but the policy also allows the government to control a population that, if deprived of its means of production and social network, could turn migrant and invade the cities.
The government's aim is not to prevent migration but to regulate it; to prevent brutal urbanisation and allow migrants to return to their villages if the economy declines. The reality fits this strategy since most migrants do not see departure as a total break with their native villages. Agriculture remains as a fallback position, while the social network provides a structure for population movements, since most migrants are introduced to their employers by friends or family.
Around 120 to 150 million migrant farmers are subject to capitalist exploitation. More than half these peasant-workers (mingong) work in factories or on building sites. The remainder find jobs in catering and hotel businesses, retailing, security or even in garbage recycling (2). Some 80% of migrants abandon their land without actually leaving the countryside. They work in local industry; 50% never leave their native province. Their working conditions are not necessarily better than those of their peers in the global-supply sweatshops on the east coast, but their experiences do not match the traditional picture of the capitalist hell that is, for example, endured by China's miners.
Leaving for the cities
The authorities have changed the way they view migrations. Their social aspect was almost totally ignored during the 1980s and early 1990s, when liberal ideas about managing the labour force blended with a view that the migrations would not be large-scale or permanent. More recent developments, notably China's membership of the World Trade Organisation, have forced leaders to look more closely at rural employment. The stagnation of agriculture, and the importance to China's growth of the construction industry and sectors that are not capital intensive, have made the migrations strategically valuable. Researchers and civil servants now predict the progressive urbanisation of a large segment of the migrants, and some believe their living conditions should be improved to boost slackening domestic consumption.
The government is even considering an economic policy for migrants which includes housing them in cities hit by property speculation, giving those with no social security access to health care, educating their children (most have no access to schools) and persuading bosses (not just
capitalists but the heads of state construction companies) to actually pay their workers. These are not just grand philosophical principles, nor are they the effect of outside influences on Chinese disorder. These vital issues will set the conditions for continued growth in relative social
stability.
A trend that could be called "social capitalism" has emerged, popular among sociologists, journalists, congress delegates, civil servants and Chinese Communist party (CPP) members, which holds that while capitalism is good, it must go hand-in-hand with social policy. Proponents believe that a mechanism for redistributing wealth is necessary; wage increases for the lowest paid would boost flagging domestic demand.
The same people defend the idea that Chinese society should become more middle class as the only way to prevent a class war between rich and poor; and they believe some migrants should have access to this new middle stratum. This idea clashes, sometimes violently but usually discreetly, with the views of the free marketeers, who disapprove of social policy. The division doesn't reflect the reformist/conservative divide, though.
Some social capitalists have a nationalistic vision of capitalism and dream of Chinese state multinationals ruling the world. Others favour amore mercantilised capitalism. The economic liberals are not united; some are ultra-liberal, others favour a modicum of social policy. A hardline economic liberal may be a virulent anti-democrat and believe that only a strong government can control the market, and be hawkish in
international relations. The labour issue has arisen at a time when a small elite, not just CCP leaders and senior officials but also "elected" representatives, leaders of mass movements and the intelligentsia, is expressing a wide variety of opinions.
Adopting a social policy for migrant workers raises financial problems and might affect the future of the Chinese economic miracle. Many leaders ask if raising the cost of labour and providing social benefits might not be detrimental to China's competitiveness. Some point to the shortage of unskilled labour in certain areas of Guangdong province and ask if it is the result of a refusal to accept the conditions and wages
offered by the world's workshop, or the result of recent massive investment to open up the Chinese west? Or is it a demographic effect of the one-child policy (3)? The answer is probably "all of the above".
Migrants are not going home
It is clear that improved wages and living conditions, especially in Shanghai and in Fujian province where employers complain less of a labour shortage, have tempted many migrants to leave Guangdong province and head north. Perhaps migrants now have better knowledge of the labour market. The recent 23% increase in the minimum wage in Shenzhen shows that the remuneration of the new working class is a major issue. The mass return of migrant workers to the country is now considered hypothetical; surveys show that many farmers believe that their own futures lie in the cities. And the development of western China is only beginning. Perhaps the geographic trend is a result of changes in production along the coastal region. Labour-intensive industries are gradually moving to central China, while the eastern seaboard is turning to higher value-added employment. This redistribution would explain the emergence of a few local social security initiatives; companies on the coast need to ensure that they have access to a better-skilled and stable workforce.
China also has unemployment, which should be remembered by those who see it as the empire of labour. The official unemployment rate may be low; 4.1% of the urban population in 2006, although this does not include unemployed migrants or "off-post" workers who have lost their jobs but still depend on their company (the xiagang zhigong) (4). Nor does it include the unemployed who have reached the end of their entitlements, or the young jobless who have never paid contributions and are not entitled to benefits. Though there has been a significant increase in job applications since 2004, these are mostly for "informal" jobs (feizhenggui) without contract or social security. In urban areas "official" jobs are in the minority. Many former state employees remain out of work or only find jobs in the informal sector as auxiliary traffic police or security guards (5).
The most recent estimates reveal a tense situation. In 2006 the state provided 25m jobs for the urban population, 9m of them to labour market entrants, 3m to migrants (that this category was mentioned at all shows how the official line has changed) and 13m to workers who had lost jobs because of restructuring in the state sector. In reality, only 11.84m work contracts with social security entitlements were created
in 2006 (6). This year 24 million young people are expected to enter a labour market with only 12m new jobs (including places left by retirees) (7). The gap will be filled in part by unofficial jobs.
Effects on the young
The repercussions of the industrial restructuring in the second half of the 1990s that ended the jobs of millions of workers are still being felt. Urban unemployment is no longer confined to the older generation of "iron rice bowl" workers. The pretexts used to get rid of them implied that this
surplus generation was unable to adapt to market change and had to be sacrificed to make way for better-educated and more adaptable youth. But research in 2005 in the cities of Dalian, Tianjin, Changsha and Liuzhou showed that unemployment among 15-29 year-olds was 9% compared with 6.1% for the urban population as a whole.
According to Shen Jie, a sociology researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: "Most young people are in jobs with no social security or stability. They work long hours for poor wages." These are unskilled school leavers with the equivalent of a high-school diploma. They are unlikely to be in competition with the migrants for dirty jobs but do not
have the training for jobs in the new sectors.
Cohorts of jobless young people are looked after by residents' committees and street offices, the lowest administrative levels. They are given temporary tasks in the non-trade community sector such as security or maintenance, or hold low-level jobs in the trade-related activities that
are developing, such as hotels, restaurants and stores. Quotas are reserved for them in jobs considered inferior but still better paid and more highly prized than those given to the migrant workers. These young people are gradually forming a welfare-supported proletariat between the middle class and the migrants. The better off may refuse lowly jobs and live off their parents, who, if they can afford it, may send them
abroad to obtain a qualification from a second-rate business or hotel management school. (France is one of the most popular destinations.)
But unemployment also affects young graduates. These have risen from 1.07 million in 2000 to 4.13 million in 2006; by 2010, 23% of the young will be graduates (8). The Chinese economy is having trouble absorbing such numbers. They were almost half the 9 million young people who entered the labour market in 2006 expecting to find work in the "new sector". An estimated 60% of 2006 graduates did not find jobs that year.
There is a paradox; major Chinese and foreign enterprises complain of a shortage of skilled, tech-savvy labour, yet young graduates are unable to find jobs (see `Graduates without prospects', left). Employers claim that their education does not reflect market requirements, and there is
a lack of mobility among job seekers. China's development model is still predominantly based on unskilled labour. Graduate starting salaries are very low. According to a survey in 2005, 20.3% earn less than $129 a month and 65.4% get a maximum $259. These low financial rewards are hardly likely to foster a new Chinese middle class.
Few hard facts
Faced with the seriousness of the situation, the last session of the National People's Congress discussed a law promoting employment and setting some major objectives; to improve coordination between the cities and the countryside, provide free "job shop" services, remove all segregation in employment, bring in new measures for unemployed young people without university or secondary school qualifications,
develop professional training, and provide greater assistance to young graduates in finding their first jobs. But translating these measures into reality depends on what concrete measures national and local authorities will take.
There are few hard facts about Chinese labour. Surveys are infrequent and fragmentary and the categories used in official statistics are rarely reliable. The labour force is used according to political/economic thinking primarily motivated by stability. The existence of a state-aided sector limits competition between urban and migrant workers. The
state is able to keep part of the population in the countryside by maintaining a traditional sector of activity there, while restricting the flow to the cities. Modern jobs being developed in sectors such as telecommunications, finance and advertising provide jobs for some children of former state workers left by the wayside following the restructuring of state enterprises. The government enables these young people, who will fill future, or existing, employment needs, to join the workforce and work their way up to more sophisticated production.
This would not be possible with a fully centralised and all-knowing labour management policy which would result in growing unrest. The police are likely to have a different point of view of social stability in relation to migrant living conditions than would cadres in charge of economic policies or social security management, or ideological chiefs
and the official unions. These potential differences of opinion provide opportunities for action by associations defending the rights of migrants. They can explain that the best strategy is to show local government and bosses that a well-treated workforce is both more efficient and more
stable. This would gain them the support of many trade unionists who hope that the present conflicts between workers and private-sector bosses will make their movement legitimate. As one explained:"Opposing the illegal actions of capitalists does not mean opposing government policy. On the contrary, it means upholding the law."
________________________________________________________
(1) Land remains state-owned but the farmers own the right to
use it and hence to rent it.
(2) Major Chinese cities are mostly cleaned by these
recyclers who wander up and down the main streets in search
of waste that can be sold (at a low price) to salvage
companies.
(3) Chinese economists are having a lively debate on this.
See Philip Bowring, "Labor need haunts China", International
Herald Tribune, 8 April 2006.
(4) These are workers who have been laid off but are still
being paid by their work units. This category will soon
disappear and the xiagang zhigong will gradually join the
unemployed.
(5) See Martine Bulard, "China breaks the iron rice bowl", Le
Monde diplomatique, English edition, January 2007.
(6) 2006 Chinese government report.
(7) 2007 Chinese government report.
(8) See David Langue, "Chinese paradox: A shallow pool of
talent", International Herald Tribune, 25 April 2006.
Translated by Krystyna Horko
Nigeria: '$2.27m Found on Capt. Ojedokun Approved'
This Day (Lagos)
24 May 2007
Posted to the web 24 May 2007
Juliana Taiwo
Abuja
Nigerian Miltary may have approved the $2.27 million found on the Nigerian Defence Attaché to India, Navy Captain G. A. Ojedokun, for which he was arrested by Indian security agencies, a senior officer in the Military who would not want his name in print yesterday clarified that the money was duly approved by the Ministry of Defence for certain projects earmarked for the Nigerian High Commission in India.
He said the money was part of an approval released for the project after the endorsement of the Defence Ministry, pointing out that the project was initially meant to be undertaken by the former Defence Adviser, also a Navy Captain, who is currently attending the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies, in Kuru near Jos, Plateau State.
"Following the appointment of the new Defence Adviser, the cost of the project was reviewed downwards. From our discussions with the Ojedokun and investigations, we discovered that the officer was trying to return the money which is the balance of the original sum that was approved to the country."
The senior officer explained that problems arose when he failed to declare that he had such an amount of money on him, which is normal international practice.
Explaining that the arrested Captain has since been released and has resumed duties at the Nigerian mission in India, the senior officer said the incident was blown out of proportion simply because it involved a diplomat.
When contacted for comments on the development, a senior official of the ministry who pleaded anonymity said "the Defence headquarters has set up a board of enquiry to further investigate the incident and unravel the circumstances surrounding it.
It would be recalled that the Indian Airport Authorities on the allegation that he was trying to smuggle out the $2.27million arrested Ojedokun an attache to the Nigerian High Commission in India.
He was said to have been stopped while about to board an Ethiopian airline flight bound for Lagos on Monday night, when the scanner revealed he had stacks of cash in his bag.
Indian authorities were said to be investigating whether there is a connection between Ojedokun and a drug syndicate in Nigeria, because he failed to mention if the money was linked to the Nigerian mission.
24 May 2007
Posted to the web 24 May 2007
Juliana Taiwo
Abuja
Nigerian Miltary may have approved the $2.27 million found on the Nigerian Defence Attaché to India, Navy Captain G. A. Ojedokun, for which he was arrested by Indian security agencies, a senior officer in the Military who would not want his name in print yesterday clarified that the money was duly approved by the Ministry of Defence for certain projects earmarked for the Nigerian High Commission in India.
He said the money was part of an approval released for the project after the endorsement of the Defence Ministry, pointing out that the project was initially meant to be undertaken by the former Defence Adviser, also a Navy Captain, who is currently attending the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies, in Kuru near Jos, Plateau State.
"Following the appointment of the new Defence Adviser, the cost of the project was reviewed downwards. From our discussions with the Ojedokun and investigations, we discovered that the officer was trying to return the money which is the balance of the original sum that was approved to the country."
The senior officer explained that problems arose when he failed to declare that he had such an amount of money on him, which is normal international practice.
Explaining that the arrested Captain has since been released and has resumed duties at the Nigerian mission in India, the senior officer said the incident was blown out of proportion simply because it involved a diplomat.
When contacted for comments on the development, a senior official of the ministry who pleaded anonymity said "the Defence headquarters has set up a board of enquiry to further investigate the incident and unravel the circumstances surrounding it.
It would be recalled that the Indian Airport Authorities on the allegation that he was trying to smuggle out the $2.27million arrested Ojedokun an attache to the Nigerian High Commission in India.
He was said to have been stopped while about to board an Ethiopian airline flight bound for Lagos on Monday night, when the scanner revealed he had stacks of cash in his bag.
Indian authorities were said to be investigating whether there is a connection between Ojedokun and a drug syndicate in Nigeria, because he failed to mention if the money was linked to the Nigerian mission.
Indians largest group to get British citizenship in 2006
Press Trust Of India
London, May 25, 2007
First Published: 21:29 IST(25/5/2007)
Last Updated: 21:45 IST(25/5/2007)
Indians were the single largest group to get British citizenship in 2006, latest official figures indicated.
While 15,125 from India were given British citizenship, Pakistan came second with 9,050 of their nationals changing their citizenship.
Other major groups were from the Philippines (8,840), South Africa (7,670), Nigeria (5.870) and Sri Lanka (5,720).
In the last one decade of Labour rule, one million foreign nationals have been given British citizenship.
In 2006, more than 150,000 people obtained a passport which took the total of foreign nationals given British citizenship to 1,020,000 since Tony Blair assumed the rein.
Andrew Green, chairman of Migrationwatch UK said passing one million new citizens since 1997 was a watershed for government policy.
"It is hard to know whether this increase is incompetence or deliberate deceit. Either way we will pay a high price in terms of social harmony," he said.
Immigration Minister Liam Byrne said, "British citizenship is a privilege and it is right that it should be recognised and celebrated as a crucial stage in a person's integration into British life.
"It's also essential that migrants wishing to live in the UK permanently recognise the responsibilities that go hand in hand. Requiring a good grasp of English ensures that they are able to play a full role in society and properly integrate into our communities," he added.
London, May 25, 2007
First Published: 21:29 IST(25/5/2007)
Last Updated: 21:45 IST(25/5/2007)
Indians were the single largest group to get British citizenship in 2006, latest official figures indicated.
While 15,125 from India were given British citizenship, Pakistan came second with 9,050 of their nationals changing their citizenship.
Other major groups were from the Philippines (8,840), South Africa (7,670), Nigeria (5.870) and Sri Lanka (5,720).
In the last one decade of Labour rule, one million foreign nationals have been given British citizenship.
In 2006, more than 150,000 people obtained a passport which took the total of foreign nationals given British citizenship to 1,020,000 since Tony Blair assumed the rein.
Andrew Green, chairman of Migrationwatch UK said passing one million new citizens since 1997 was a watershed for government policy.
"It is hard to know whether this increase is incompetence or deliberate deceit. Either way we will pay a high price in terms of social harmony," he said.
Immigration Minister Liam Byrne said, "British citizenship is a privilege and it is right that it should be recognised and celebrated as a crucial stage in a person's integration into British life.
"It's also essential that migrants wishing to live in the UK permanently recognise the responsibilities that go hand in hand. Requiring a good grasp of English ensures that they are able to play a full role in society and properly integrate into our communities," he added.
NIGERIA MONITOR: Compilation of Events
Oil workers kidnapped in Nigeria
May 26, 2007
Nigeria - Seven oil workers were kidnapped in Nigeria, three of them U.S. citizens, the U.S. State Department confirmed but offered few details.
"Our consulate general in Lagos reports that three American citizens were kidnapped in Bayelsa state," State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos said in a written statement.
"We are in the process of notifying their families, and will maintain contact with Nigerian authorities to monitor this incident."
Four other foreigners were kidnapped in the same incident, he said.
Reuters cited oil industry sources as saying nine foreign oil workers and a Nigerian colleague were kidnapped Friday.
In addition to the three Americans, the workers included four Britons, a South African and a Filipino, industry sources told Reuters.
There has been a wave of kidnappings of foreign workers in the oil-rich Niger Delta. Since late 2005, Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) militants have carried out numerous attacks on Nigeria's oil sector and abducted dozens of foreign workers, releasing nearly all of them unharmed.
Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer. In 2005, it was the world's sixth-largest exporter of oil, but the conflict there has cut distribution by an estimated 500,000 barrels per day, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.
© AlaskaReport News
26/05/2007 14:32 LAGOS, May 26 (AFP)
Nigeria's oil unions suspend strike
Nigeria's oil unions said Saturday they have suspended a two-day-old strike after the government met their demands over the proposed sale of two state-owned oil refineries.
"We have suspended the strike," Peter Esele, president of the senior oil workers union PENGASSAN, told AFP.
He said that the government has agreed to retain a 51 percent stake in the Port Harcourt and Kaduna refineries and only sell the remaining 49 percent to private investors. Previously the government wanted to sell 100 percent.
The government also agreed to a 15 percent wage increase.
Nigeria's PENGASSAN and NUPENG oil workers unions had began the strike on Thursday at the refineries, which have a combined production capacity of 210,000 barrels of crude oil per day and employ around 4,000 people.
"The sale of the refineries does not follow due process and was not agreed to by all the stakeholders in the industry," said NUPENG head Peter Akpatason.
"Some of these so-called investors are political in their activities, they may buy the refineries and keep them comatose to promote monopoly", he added.
Critics of Nigeria's outgoing President Olusegun Obasanjo, who steps down on Tuesday, accuse him of organising a fire sale of state assets to his cronies in his final days in power.
Nigeria is world's sixth oil exporter accounting for about 2.6 million barrels per day of crude but production has been cut by a quarter due to unrest in the Niger Delta, where more than 150 foreign workers have been kidnapped this year.
Crude oil prices rise on Nigeria strike, worry over Iran
© ap
2007-05-26 02:17:45 -
LONDON (AP) _ Crude oil prices rose Friday amid worries about supply after Nigeria's powerful oil unions went on strike and gunmen kidnapped oil workers in the nation's south. Concern about more tensions with Iran was also a factor.
Potential conflicts in Nigeria _ Africa's biggest oil producer and a top supplier of crude to
the United States _ and Iran could affect global supplies and are buoying prices after a sharp drop-off Thursday, analysts said.
Light, sweet crude for July delivery rose 82 cents to US$65 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by afternoon in Europe. Brent crude for July rose 39 cents to US$71.11 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.
Oil unions began a strike Thursday at Nigeria's state-owned oil company and threatened to target exports in hopes of reversing the sale of government refineries. The state oil company holds the majority stake in joint ventures with international oil companies that account for more than 90 percent of the country's oil exports.
The kidnappings in southern Bayelsa, meanwhile, are the latest in a run of more than 100 seizures of foreign workers this year in the oil-producing Niger Delta. Embassy officials said those kidnapped included three Americans and four Britons.
Iran has expanded its uranium enrichment program, and the U.S. Navy is holding unannounced exercises off Iran's coast.
Traders and analysts fear any conflict between the U.S. and Iran could result in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which tankers ship carry about 17 million barrels of crude oil a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Still, growing crude stocks in the U.S. have been depressing prices, as traders figure that already abundant crude inventories are likely to swell even more if refineries keep paring back operations for maintenance.
«The refinery problems in the U.S. has meant that there has been a buildup of crude even though there has been very strong demand for gasoline,» said Andrew Harrington, an analyst with ANZ Global Natural Resources in Sydney. «So that's putting pressure on crude prices.»
But issues surrounding Nigeria and Iran have taken front seat for now, Harrington said.
New refinery outages were reported at Valero Energy Corp.'s McKee refinery in Sunray, Texas, and ConocoPhillips' Alliance oil refinery in Belle Chasse, Louisiana, after a U.S. government report showed Wednesday that U.S. crude oil supplies rose 2 million barrels last week when analysts had been expecting a drop of 200,000 barrels.
Each new refinery problem makes crude oil less needed and gasoline in tighter supply, said Peter Beutel, president at trading advisory firm Cameron Hanover.
Heating oil futures gained 1.86 cents to US$1.9477 a gallon (3.8 liters) while natural gas prices edged up 0.3 cent to US$7.684 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Nigeria: Which Drug Barons?
Vanguard (Lagos)
EDITORIAL
25 May 2007
Posted to the web 25 May 2007
Lagos
AT a time many Nigerians thought the murder of Chief James Ajibola Ige, former Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, had been rested, since his killers were unknown, President Olusegun Obasanjo has stated that drug barons killed him.
Nigerians are unshockable by the utterances of their imperious President. The latest revelation is an additional parting shot to the long list of Obasanjo's legacies. Why did it take the President more than five years to react to the murder of his serving Attorney General? The position of the Attorney is important enough to be listed by title and function in the Constitution.
How did the President know the killers were drug barons? Why was the President comfortable with a tenuous investigation of a very important national issue?
Was the curtailment of illegal drug trade not one of the listed achievements of the President? Was Ige working outside the programme of the government, assuming this was the reason for his death? Why was none of the suspects linked to drug barons? When did the President, who swore in 1999 and again in 2003 to defend the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria know this? The Constitution provides for sanctity of the human life.
It is obvious Ige's murder did not embarrass the government. There were no convictions, and Justice Atinuke Ige, wife of the former Minister of Justice, died soon after a no case submission was made - and all the accused freed - in 2003. The Inspector General of Police, Sunday Ehindero, last December declared the case closed.
What did the President intend to achieve by bringing up this case?Relevant Links
The Ige family think it is part of a campaign of calumny the President had been waging against their dead father. President Obasanjo had earlier blamed power failure on a minister "who did not know his left from his right". Chief Ige was a Minister of Power for just a year and power supply has regularly dipped below pre-1999 levels since Ige's exit.
President Obasanjo has unfortunately dedicated his remaining days to the same unpresidential altercations he has often been advised were below his office. His strident attacks on Vice President Abubakar Atiku have been sustained. The President does not need to be provoked anymore. Nigerians mostly think his eight years were engaged unproductively in conflicts that diminished the exalted office of the President and charted a path of poor civility for his innumerable lieutenants some who wholesomely adopted the abuse as acceptable manner of engaging the public.
Does the President want to be remembered for his last days in this light? There are even hints that he is quickly losing touch with the reality of May 29 being his final day in office. At the commissioning of the Mint on May 20, the President threatened to sell the place in 12 months' time, if it failed to run according to his expectations
May 26, 2007
Nigeria - Seven oil workers were kidnapped in Nigeria, three of them U.S. citizens, the U.S. State Department confirmed but offered few details.
"Our consulate general in Lagos reports that three American citizens were kidnapped in Bayelsa state," State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos said in a written statement.
"We are in the process of notifying their families, and will maintain contact with Nigerian authorities to monitor this incident."
Four other foreigners were kidnapped in the same incident, he said.
Reuters cited oil industry sources as saying nine foreign oil workers and a Nigerian colleague were kidnapped Friday.
In addition to the three Americans, the workers included four Britons, a South African and a Filipino, industry sources told Reuters.
There has been a wave of kidnappings of foreign workers in the oil-rich Niger Delta. Since late 2005, Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) militants have carried out numerous attacks on Nigeria's oil sector and abducted dozens of foreign workers, releasing nearly all of them unharmed.
Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer. In 2005, it was the world's sixth-largest exporter of oil, but the conflict there has cut distribution by an estimated 500,000 barrels per day, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.
© AlaskaReport News
26/05/2007 14:32 LAGOS, May 26 (AFP)
Nigeria's oil unions suspend strike
Nigeria's oil unions said Saturday they have suspended a two-day-old strike after the government met their demands over the proposed sale of two state-owned oil refineries.
"We have suspended the strike," Peter Esele, president of the senior oil workers union PENGASSAN, told AFP.
He said that the government has agreed to retain a 51 percent stake in the Port Harcourt and Kaduna refineries and only sell the remaining 49 percent to private investors. Previously the government wanted to sell 100 percent.
The government also agreed to a 15 percent wage increase.
Nigeria's PENGASSAN and NUPENG oil workers unions had began the strike on Thursday at the refineries, which have a combined production capacity of 210,000 barrels of crude oil per day and employ around 4,000 people.
"The sale of the refineries does not follow due process and was not agreed to by all the stakeholders in the industry," said NUPENG head Peter Akpatason.
"Some of these so-called investors are political in their activities, they may buy the refineries and keep them comatose to promote monopoly", he added.
Critics of Nigeria's outgoing President Olusegun Obasanjo, who steps down on Tuesday, accuse him of organising a fire sale of state assets to his cronies in his final days in power.
Nigeria is world's sixth oil exporter accounting for about 2.6 million barrels per day of crude but production has been cut by a quarter due to unrest in the Niger Delta, where more than 150 foreign workers have been kidnapped this year.
Crude oil prices rise on Nigeria strike, worry over Iran
© ap
2007-05-26 02:17:45 -
LONDON (AP) _ Crude oil prices rose Friday amid worries about supply after Nigeria's powerful oil unions went on strike and gunmen kidnapped oil workers in the nation's south. Concern about more tensions with Iran was also a factor.
Potential conflicts in Nigeria _ Africa's biggest oil producer and a top supplier of crude to
the United States _ and Iran could affect global supplies and are buoying prices after a sharp drop-off Thursday, analysts said.
Light, sweet crude for July delivery rose 82 cents to US$65 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by afternoon in Europe. Brent crude for July rose 39 cents to US$71.11 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.
Oil unions began a strike Thursday at Nigeria's state-owned oil company and threatened to target exports in hopes of reversing the sale of government refineries. The state oil company holds the majority stake in joint ventures with international oil companies that account for more than 90 percent of the country's oil exports.
The kidnappings in southern Bayelsa, meanwhile, are the latest in a run of more than 100 seizures of foreign workers this year in the oil-producing Niger Delta. Embassy officials said those kidnapped included three Americans and four Britons.
Iran has expanded its uranium enrichment program, and the U.S. Navy is holding unannounced exercises off Iran's coast.
Traders and analysts fear any conflict between the U.S. and Iran could result in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which tankers ship carry about 17 million barrels of crude oil a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Still, growing crude stocks in the U.S. have been depressing prices, as traders figure that already abundant crude inventories are likely to swell even more if refineries keep paring back operations for maintenance.
«The refinery problems in the U.S. has meant that there has been a buildup of crude even though there has been very strong demand for gasoline,» said Andrew Harrington, an analyst with ANZ Global Natural Resources in Sydney. «So that's putting pressure on crude prices.»
But issues surrounding Nigeria and Iran have taken front seat for now, Harrington said.
New refinery outages were reported at Valero Energy Corp.'s McKee refinery in Sunray, Texas, and ConocoPhillips' Alliance oil refinery in Belle Chasse, Louisiana, after a U.S. government report showed Wednesday that U.S. crude oil supplies rose 2 million barrels last week when analysts had been expecting a drop of 200,000 barrels.
Each new refinery problem makes crude oil less needed and gasoline in tighter supply, said Peter Beutel, president at trading advisory firm Cameron Hanover.
Heating oil futures gained 1.86 cents to US$1.9477 a gallon (3.8 liters) while natural gas prices edged up 0.3 cent to US$7.684 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Nigeria: Which Drug Barons?
Vanguard (Lagos)
EDITORIAL
25 May 2007
Posted to the web 25 May 2007
Lagos
AT a time many Nigerians thought the murder of Chief James Ajibola Ige, former Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, had been rested, since his killers were unknown, President Olusegun Obasanjo has stated that drug barons killed him.
Nigerians are unshockable by the utterances of their imperious President. The latest revelation is an additional parting shot to the long list of Obasanjo's legacies. Why did it take the President more than five years to react to the murder of his serving Attorney General? The position of the Attorney is important enough to be listed by title and function in the Constitution.
How did the President know the killers were drug barons? Why was the President comfortable with a tenuous investigation of a very important national issue?
Was the curtailment of illegal drug trade not one of the listed achievements of the President? Was Ige working outside the programme of the government, assuming this was the reason for his death? Why was none of the suspects linked to drug barons? When did the President, who swore in 1999 and again in 2003 to defend the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria know this? The Constitution provides for sanctity of the human life.
It is obvious Ige's murder did not embarrass the government. There were no convictions, and Justice Atinuke Ige, wife of the former Minister of Justice, died soon after a no case submission was made - and all the accused freed - in 2003. The Inspector General of Police, Sunday Ehindero, last December declared the case closed.
What did the President intend to achieve by bringing up this case?Relevant Links
The Ige family think it is part of a campaign of calumny the President had been waging against their dead father. President Obasanjo had earlier blamed power failure on a minister "who did not know his left from his right". Chief Ige was a Minister of Power for just a year and power supply has regularly dipped below pre-1999 levels since Ige's exit.
President Obasanjo has unfortunately dedicated his remaining days to the same unpresidential altercations he has often been advised were below his office. His strident attacks on Vice President Abubakar Atiku have been sustained. The President does not need to be provoked anymore. Nigerians mostly think his eight years were engaged unproductively in conflicts that diminished the exalted office of the President and charted a path of poor civility for his innumerable lieutenants some who wholesomely adopted the abuse as acceptable manner of engaging the public.
Does the President want to be remembered for his last days in this light? There are even hints that he is quickly losing touch with the reality of May 29 being his final day in office. At the commissioning of the Mint on May 20, the President threatened to sell the place in 12 months' time, if it failed to run according to his expectations
Red Alert: Ukraine -- Sliding Down a Slippery Slope
Source: Stratfor
May 26, 2007 11 18 GMT
The Ukrainian Interior Ministry reported May 26 that some of its forces have begun acting on the order of President Viktor Yushchenko and disregarding the orders from the Interior Ministry. Several thousand Interior Ministry troops loyal to the president are reportedly moving toward the capital, Kiev, in defiance of orders from Interior Minister Vasyl Tsuchko.
The normal rule of law in Ukraine has become more and more blurred over the past few weeks. Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich has repeatedly taken advantage of the country's weak institutions in order to peel power away from the increasingly unpopular Yushchenko.
That led Yushchenko on April 2 to use his greatest constitution-granted power and dissolve parliament, forcing new elections. But the constitutional order is so degraded that Yanukovich has continued to wield parliamentary power in defiance of the decree. In order to cope with such actions, Yushchenko also has begun doing end-runs around the system.
Ukraine's top judiciary, the Constitutional Court, has fallen victim to this escalating fight since courts only have power if their independence is respected, something that neither side is doing at the moment. With the courts out of the picture and two power centers now largely reduced to ruling by decree, the only true means of influencing events now boils down to troops.
On May 24, Tsuchko sent troops to the prosecutor's office without consulting the president -- a questionable action explicitly designed to head off Yushchenko's unilateral dismissal of the prosecutor (the institution next in line after the court), an equally questionable answer. Immediately thereafter, Yushchenko decreed that all Interior Ministry forces are his to command. Now, according to the Interior Ministry, at least one faction -- the highly trained Alpha Group -- has heeded the president's call and is moving.
At this point, the troop movement is unconfirmed, but if it is true, then the situation has moved the closest to violence in Ukraine's post-Cold War history.
Ultimately, during the Orange Revolution, government forces -- all government forces -- refused any hint of orders to fire on civilians. But then, political authority was unquestionably concentrated in the hands of President Leonid Kuchma. Now that concentration is gone, and the leading politicians, to put it mildly, despise one another. Add in the breakdown of the constitutional order and Ukraine is sliding down the slippery slope of "might makes right." If things do go that far, the only country positioned to intervene in any way is Russia.
Intervening is something that Russian President Vladimir Putin, well into a long-running effort to reassert influence in the old Soviet space, would sorely love to do. But he will not move until violence has broken out. He wants Russia to serve as savior, not conqueror. Should Putin play his cards right, the West is unlikely to lift a finger. Europe has already warned Yushchenko -- via foreign policy freelancer Javier Solona -- that it does not want to see violence of any sort, while the United States does not dare give the Russians reason to be anything but helpful in strengthening its negotiations with Iran over Iraq.
The one bright spot in all this is that Yanukovich and Yushchenko, as recently as a few hours ago, were still civil enough to hold a face-to-face meeting. Although tense and anger-filled, it was a meeting nonetheless. They have not yet reached the point at which they are willing to shoot at each other, but they are certainly getting their firepower ready.
May 26, 2007 11 18 GMT
The Ukrainian Interior Ministry reported May 26 that some of its forces have begun acting on the order of President Viktor Yushchenko and disregarding the orders from the Interior Ministry. Several thousand Interior Ministry troops loyal to the president are reportedly moving toward the capital, Kiev, in defiance of orders from Interior Minister Vasyl Tsuchko.
The normal rule of law in Ukraine has become more and more blurred over the past few weeks. Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich has repeatedly taken advantage of the country's weak institutions in order to peel power away from the increasingly unpopular Yushchenko.
That led Yushchenko on April 2 to use his greatest constitution-granted power and dissolve parliament, forcing new elections. But the constitutional order is so degraded that Yanukovich has continued to wield parliamentary power in defiance of the decree. In order to cope with such actions, Yushchenko also has begun doing end-runs around the system.
Ukraine's top judiciary, the Constitutional Court, has fallen victim to this escalating fight since courts only have power if their independence is respected, something that neither side is doing at the moment. With the courts out of the picture and two power centers now largely reduced to ruling by decree, the only true means of influencing events now boils down to troops.
On May 24, Tsuchko sent troops to the prosecutor's office without consulting the president -- a questionable action explicitly designed to head off Yushchenko's unilateral dismissal of the prosecutor (the institution next in line after the court), an equally questionable answer. Immediately thereafter, Yushchenko decreed that all Interior Ministry forces are his to command. Now, according to the Interior Ministry, at least one faction -- the highly trained Alpha Group -- has heeded the president's call and is moving.
At this point, the troop movement is unconfirmed, but if it is true, then the situation has moved the closest to violence in Ukraine's post-Cold War history.
Ultimately, during the Orange Revolution, government forces -- all government forces -- refused any hint of orders to fire on civilians. But then, political authority was unquestionably concentrated in the hands of President Leonid Kuchma. Now that concentration is gone, and the leading politicians, to put it mildly, despise one another. Add in the breakdown of the constitutional order and Ukraine is sliding down the slippery slope of "might makes right." If things do go that far, the only country positioned to intervene in any way is Russia.
Intervening is something that Russian President Vladimir Putin, well into a long-running effort to reassert influence in the old Soviet space, would sorely love to do. But he will not move until violence has broken out. He wants Russia to serve as savior, not conqueror. Should Putin play his cards right, the West is unlikely to lift a finger. Europe has already warned Yushchenko -- via foreign policy freelancer Javier Solona -- that it does not want to see violence of any sort, while the United States does not dare give the Russians reason to be anything but helpful in strengthening its negotiations with Iran over Iraq.
The one bright spot in all this is that Yanukovich and Yushchenko, as recently as a few hours ago, were still civil enough to hold a face-to-face meeting. Although tense and anger-filled, it was a meeting nonetheless. They have not yet reached the point at which they are willing to shoot at each other, but they are certainly getting their firepower ready.
Thailand: The Challenge of Eroding Royal Support
Source: Stratfor
May 25, 2007 18 36 GMT
Summary
Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej said May 25 the restoration of democracy in Thailand remains on track, effectively withdrawing his unconditional endorsement of the military-backed government. In its eagerness to dismantle the party of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the government had started taking the king's support for granted -- consequently dismantling a key base of its legitimacy.
Analysis
In a nationally televised ceremony May 25, Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej warned the country's top judges against dissolving Thailand's two main opposition political parties in a Constitutional Court verdict due May 31. He described Thailand's political situation as not good at all and implied that dissolving the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party, founded by ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and the Democrat Party would damage the nation's image. This is the first time the much-revered king has criticized the military-backed government's performance so publicly since it came to office after Thailand's September 2006 coup.
The king, who is considered a near-divine authority on what is best for Thailand's social well-being (he has devoted much if not all his life to establishing social programs throughout Thailand), typically steps into Thai politics only when stability is threatened. The last time the king spoke out against an incumbent government (under Thaksin), that government fell. By speaking out now, he is effectively withdrawing his unconditional endorsement of the military-backed government. He also is lending credence to rumors that the May 31 ruling probably will order the dissolution of the two opposition parties, something likely to spark mass violence in Bangkok.
The two opposition parties in question face charges of electoral fraud, and will be dissolved if found guilty by the government-appointed panel of nine constitutional court judges May 31. This would bar both parties' executives from politics for five years and therefore from participation in December's election. This blatant obstruction to Thailand's promised democratization process is the first issue capable of generating significant unrest or violence in Bangkok to have arrived in recent months. Opposition groups have long been hoping for just such an issue to help trigger a countercoup.
The Thai king's top concern is maintaining stability in the capital, hence his assurances to the public that promised democratic elections actually will arrive in December. Likewise, the identity of the two parties his words might have saved from dissolution is irrelevant to him, since it was the consequences of their dissolution -- unrest -- that he is trying to prevent.
The struggling regime has no choice but to respond immediately to address the king's concerns given the political weight that royal statements hold in Thailand. The regime's original goal in guiding the judges toward a guilty verdict was to eliminate the TRT from Thailand's political landscape as a warning to all opposition parties straying too far from the government's wishes. Simultaneous dissolution of the Democratic Party would have aimed to uphold the widely accepted Thai concept of balance and unity.
The king's statement means the Constitution Court in all likelihood will dissolve one of the opposition parties, if any. Though this will protect the government from a potential backlash, that and sticking to the promised electoral timetable will no longer be enough to secure its position given how heavily the government's legitimacy rested on the king's unconditional endorsement.
To prevent the king's support for the government from slipping further, and for the government to pick up what pieces are left of its public credibility, the government will have to deliver in other areas -- such as containing continued militant violence in the south. Given its lack of success in this endeavor in the nine months since coming to office, the government's options -- and days -- appear to be limited.
May 25, 2007 18 36 GMT
Summary
Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej said May 25 the restoration of democracy in Thailand remains on track, effectively withdrawing his unconditional endorsement of the military-backed government. In its eagerness to dismantle the party of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the government had started taking the king's support for granted -- consequently dismantling a key base of its legitimacy.
Analysis
In a nationally televised ceremony May 25, Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej warned the country's top judges against dissolving Thailand's two main opposition political parties in a Constitutional Court verdict due May 31. He described Thailand's political situation as not good at all and implied that dissolving the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party, founded by ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and the Democrat Party would damage the nation's image. This is the first time the much-revered king has criticized the military-backed government's performance so publicly since it came to office after Thailand's September 2006 coup.
The king, who is considered a near-divine authority on what is best for Thailand's social well-being (he has devoted much if not all his life to establishing social programs throughout Thailand), typically steps into Thai politics only when stability is threatened. The last time the king spoke out against an incumbent government (under Thaksin), that government fell. By speaking out now, he is effectively withdrawing his unconditional endorsement of the military-backed government. He also is lending credence to rumors that the May 31 ruling probably will order the dissolution of the two opposition parties, something likely to spark mass violence in Bangkok.
The two opposition parties in question face charges of electoral fraud, and will be dissolved if found guilty by the government-appointed panel of nine constitutional court judges May 31. This would bar both parties' executives from politics for five years and therefore from participation in December's election. This blatant obstruction to Thailand's promised democratization process is the first issue capable of generating significant unrest or violence in Bangkok to have arrived in recent months. Opposition groups have long been hoping for just such an issue to help trigger a countercoup.
The Thai king's top concern is maintaining stability in the capital, hence his assurances to the public that promised democratic elections actually will arrive in December. Likewise, the identity of the two parties his words might have saved from dissolution is irrelevant to him, since it was the consequences of their dissolution -- unrest -- that he is trying to prevent.
The struggling regime has no choice but to respond immediately to address the king's concerns given the political weight that royal statements hold in Thailand. The regime's original goal in guiding the judges toward a guilty verdict was to eliminate the TRT from Thailand's political landscape as a warning to all opposition parties straying too far from the government's wishes. Simultaneous dissolution of the Democratic Party would have aimed to uphold the widely accepted Thai concept of balance and unity.
The king's statement means the Constitution Court in all likelihood will dissolve one of the opposition parties, if any. Though this will protect the government from a potential backlash, that and sticking to the promised electoral timetable will no longer be enough to secure its position given how heavily the government's legitimacy rested on the king's unconditional endorsement.
To prevent the king's support for the government from slipping further, and for the government to pick up what pieces are left of its public credibility, the government will have to deliver in other areas -- such as containing continued militant violence in the south. Given its lack of success in this endeavor in the nine months since coming to office, the government's options -- and days -- appear to be limited.
Germany's Tough Security Effort
Source: Stratfor
May 25, 2007 18 15 GMT
German authorities are sending police reinforcements to Hamburg in anticipation of protests planned for the May 28 Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) of foreign ministers. That event, however, will be a dry run for security forces ahead of much larger protests planned by anarchists and activists at the G-8 summit set for June 6-8 in eastern Germany's Baltic coast resort of Heiligendamm. With tensions already high and violent outbreaks occurring in several German cities, authorities are hoping to keep a lid on protests in Hamburg so as to avoid a spillover of violence in Heiligendamm.
In the months leading up to the G-8 summit, anarchists and anti-globalization activists have staged protests in several cities, including Berlin, Karlsruhe and Hamburg. Although most have been peaceful, some scuffles have broken out and arrests made. One demonstration in Hamburg turned violent May 9, forcing police to used water cannons to disperse a crowd of about 2,000 protesters, some of whom were throwing bottles and stones at officers. Four people were injured and eight arrested. Additionally, cars belonging to conservative politicians, officials and journalists have been firebombed in Hamburg and other cities in recent months.
The latest firebombing occurred May 22 when the Mercedes of Kai Diekmann, editor-in-chief of the daily newspaper Bild, was torched in front of his home in Hamburg. A note from "Militante Kampagne kampft fur Sie" ("a militant campaign that fights for you") was sent to Deutsche Presse-Agentur claiming responsibility for the attack, citing Bild's support of German police raids on suspected activist offices in the city. No arrests have been made in connection with the attack.
Nine similar attacks occurred in Germany in 2006, but the frequency of such attacks has increased significantly with the approach of the G-8 summit; one source reported that 18 cars have been torched in Berlin alone during May.
Amid these increasing tensions, Hamburg police are bracing for protests at the ASEM gathering, which will be attended by more than 40 foreign ministers from EU and Asian countries. Hamburg officials expect about 5,000 protesters to enter Hamburg prior to the G-8 summit, many arriving in time to demonstrate against the ASEM and to stay on for protests during the G-8 summit. Adding to the Hamburg police's concerns is a soccer match scheduled for the evening of May 25 between Hamburg's St. Pauli team, which is supported by generally left-leaning fans, and eastern Germany's Dynamo Dresden, whose fan base comes from the country's far right.
The combination of so many anarchists, leftists, anti-globalization activists and neo-Nazis in town at the same time makes for a potentially volatile situation in Hamburg, and German officials are bringing in extra police from four states as backup. By doing so, however, officials could be creating further tensions, as a larger police presence could actually incite the protesters.
German security preparations for both events -- including a series of raids on suspected activist offices across the country and the cataloging of suspected activists leaders by smell (perhaps to be used by dogs trained to sniff out troublemakers if necessary) -- has caused leftist groups to make the usual comparisons with Nazi Germany and the notorious East German Stasi secret police. Although such comparisons have been a sensitive issue in postwar Germany, the police are forging ahead with their proactive security measures. Indeed, similar measures were successful in minimizing disruptions during the World Cup matches held in Germany during summer 2006.
German authorities are determined not to let Hamburg erupt in violence, as it could only antagonize and encourage the protesters to cause more trouble at the big G-8 meeting in Heiligendamm.
May 25, 2007 18 15 GMT
German authorities are sending police reinforcements to Hamburg in anticipation of protests planned for the May 28 Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) of foreign ministers. That event, however, will be a dry run for security forces ahead of much larger protests planned by anarchists and activists at the G-8 summit set for June 6-8 in eastern Germany's Baltic coast resort of Heiligendamm. With tensions already high and violent outbreaks occurring in several German cities, authorities are hoping to keep a lid on protests in Hamburg so as to avoid a spillover of violence in Heiligendamm.
In the months leading up to the G-8 summit, anarchists and anti-globalization activists have staged protests in several cities, including Berlin, Karlsruhe and Hamburg. Although most have been peaceful, some scuffles have broken out and arrests made. One demonstration in Hamburg turned violent May 9, forcing police to used water cannons to disperse a crowd of about 2,000 protesters, some of whom were throwing bottles and stones at officers. Four people were injured and eight arrested. Additionally, cars belonging to conservative politicians, officials and journalists have been firebombed in Hamburg and other cities in recent months.
The latest firebombing occurred May 22 when the Mercedes of Kai Diekmann, editor-in-chief of the daily newspaper Bild, was torched in front of his home in Hamburg. A note from "Militante Kampagne kampft fur Sie" ("a militant campaign that fights for you") was sent to Deutsche Presse-Agentur claiming responsibility for the attack, citing Bild's support of German police raids on suspected activist offices in the city. No arrests have been made in connection with the attack.
Nine similar attacks occurred in Germany in 2006, but the frequency of such attacks has increased significantly with the approach of the G-8 summit; one source reported that 18 cars have been torched in Berlin alone during May.
Amid these increasing tensions, Hamburg police are bracing for protests at the ASEM gathering, which will be attended by more than 40 foreign ministers from EU and Asian countries. Hamburg officials expect about 5,000 protesters to enter Hamburg prior to the G-8 summit, many arriving in time to demonstrate against the ASEM and to stay on for protests during the G-8 summit. Adding to the Hamburg police's concerns is a soccer match scheduled for the evening of May 25 between Hamburg's St. Pauli team, which is supported by generally left-leaning fans, and eastern Germany's Dynamo Dresden, whose fan base comes from the country's far right.
The combination of so many anarchists, leftists, anti-globalization activists and neo-Nazis in town at the same time makes for a potentially volatile situation in Hamburg, and German officials are bringing in extra police from four states as backup. By doing so, however, officials could be creating further tensions, as a larger police presence could actually incite the protesters.
German security preparations for both events -- including a series of raids on suspected activist offices across the country and the cataloging of suspected activists leaders by smell (perhaps to be used by dogs trained to sniff out troublemakers if necessary) -- has caused leftist groups to make the usual comparisons with Nazi Germany and the notorious East German Stasi secret police. Although such comparisons have been a sensitive issue in postwar Germany, the police are forging ahead with their proactive security measures. Indeed, similar measures were successful in minimizing disruptions during the World Cup matches held in Germany during summer 2006.
German authorities are determined not to let Hamburg erupt in violence, as it could only antagonize and encourage the protesters to cause more trouble at the big G-8 meeting in Heiligendamm.
Iraq: Al-Sadr's Return and Iran's Plan
Source: Stratfor
May 25, 2007 18 28 GMT
Summary
Radical Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr reappeared in Iraq for Friday prayers May 25 after spending months hiding in Iran. Al-Sadr's return reflects movement in negotiations between Iran and the United States. With these talks in full swing, al-Sadr will use Tehran's security blanket to prepare his movement for an eventual overhaul of the Iraqi political system. For the U.S.-Iranian deal to work, al-Sadr will have to make good on a commitment to rein in his militia -- and it appears that he already has begun to deliver.
Analysis
After a nearly four-month hiatus, Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr made a public appearance May 25 in the holy Shiite town of Kufa, Iraq, for Friday prayers. Rumors that al-Sadr fled Iraq for his personal safety surfaced around the start of a U.S.-Iraqi security crackdown in mid-February. Al-Sadr was most likely hiding out in Iran, taking the time to shore up his religious credentials while delivering instructions to his movement to lay low and avoid major confrontations with U.S. and Iraqi forces.
Al-Sadr's resurfacing could only have been made possible by a deal worked out between the United States and Iran in which Washington assured Tehran that al-Sadr would be on the U.S. military's "no touch" list. Though al-Sadr's movement has traditionally kept its distance from the Iranian clerical regime, priding itself on being an Iraqi nationalist movement rather than another Iranian proxy, the Iranians managed to use the security crackdown in Iraq to bring the radical leader under their umbrella.
An integral part of the framework of negotiations developing between Iran and the United States over Iraq involves a guarantee by the Iranians that they can rein in Iraq's Shiite militia groups to help quell sectarian bloodshed in the country. To make good on this promise, Iran needed to make al-Sadr dependent on Tehran for protection so that Iran could call in the favor when its negotiations with the United States advanced to a point where both sides would need to stop talking and start acting.
The longer al-Sadr remained in Iran, however, the greater the risk that his movement would implode and he would no longer be able to control his various commanders, who already operate independently for the most part. To be able to purge his militia of all the renegade elements, al-Sadr needed to step back into the picture -- and there was no better time than now, when the United States and Iran are forging ahead with direct negotiations to create a settlement on Iraq.
Surrounded by bodyguards and aides, al-Sadr told his followers during Friday prayers in Kufa that he would not back down from his demand for a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops. After being away for so long, al-Sadr has some damage control to do to demonstrate that his demands will be met (and actually can be met now that Iran and the United States are actively working on a U.S. exit strategy for Iraq.) Furthermore, al-Sadr ordered his Mehdi Army militiamen to refrain from fighting Iraqi security forces, reflecting the quiet cooperation between the U.S. military and al-Sadr that Iran has facilitated.
And it appears that al-Sadr is ready for that cooperation. Just after Friday prayers on May 25, Iraqi special forces backed up by British troops killed Mehdi Army militia commander Abu Qader, also known as Wissam al-Waili, and at least one of his aides after they resisted arrest in the oil-rich southern Iraqi city of Basra. Abu Qader, described as the leader of the Mehdi Army in Basra, was charged with weapons trafficking and carrying out attacks against British forces in the Shiite-dominated south. While normally this sort of incident would result in immediate retaliatory attacks, a senior member of al-Sadr's political bloc said its response to the killing would be limited to "political resistance." It could very well be that Abu Qader had become a Mehdi Army renegade and that his elimination was a quiet show of good faith by al-Sadr.
Moreover, major changes were recently made to the leadership structure of the Mehdi Army, according to a May 23 Al-Quds Al-Arabi report. The reorganization involves moving away from regional commands and toward smaller contingents comprising 23-strong brigades. These changes allow al-Sadr to break down the regional setup that led to the creation of multiple renegade units, and thus exert more control over his movement and the oil resources in Iraq's Shiite-dominated areas. Securing control over the oil-rich city of Basra is of prime concern for al-Sadr, which could explain why he agreed to the "removal" of his top leader in Basra, clearing a path for him to insert a stronger loyalist.
As al-Sadr proceeds in efforts to purge his militia and political bloc of dissidents, he will be counting on the assurances he has received from Tehran that a U.S.-Iranian negotiated blueprint for Iraq will involve implementing a new political order in Baghdad that will safeguard the interests of the al-Sadrite movement.
May 25, 2007 18 28 GMT
Summary
Radical Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr reappeared in Iraq for Friday prayers May 25 after spending months hiding in Iran. Al-Sadr's return reflects movement in negotiations between Iran and the United States. With these talks in full swing, al-Sadr will use Tehran's security blanket to prepare his movement for an eventual overhaul of the Iraqi political system. For the U.S.-Iranian deal to work, al-Sadr will have to make good on a commitment to rein in his militia -- and it appears that he already has begun to deliver.
Analysis
After a nearly four-month hiatus, Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr made a public appearance May 25 in the holy Shiite town of Kufa, Iraq, for Friday prayers. Rumors that al-Sadr fled Iraq for his personal safety surfaced around the start of a U.S.-Iraqi security crackdown in mid-February. Al-Sadr was most likely hiding out in Iran, taking the time to shore up his religious credentials while delivering instructions to his movement to lay low and avoid major confrontations with U.S. and Iraqi forces.
Al-Sadr's resurfacing could only have been made possible by a deal worked out between the United States and Iran in which Washington assured Tehran that al-Sadr would be on the U.S. military's "no touch" list. Though al-Sadr's movement has traditionally kept its distance from the Iranian clerical regime, priding itself on being an Iraqi nationalist movement rather than another Iranian proxy, the Iranians managed to use the security crackdown in Iraq to bring the radical leader under their umbrella.
An integral part of the framework of negotiations developing between Iran and the United States over Iraq involves a guarantee by the Iranians that they can rein in Iraq's Shiite militia groups to help quell sectarian bloodshed in the country. To make good on this promise, Iran needed to make al-Sadr dependent on Tehran for protection so that Iran could call in the favor when its negotiations with the United States advanced to a point where both sides would need to stop talking and start acting.
The longer al-Sadr remained in Iran, however, the greater the risk that his movement would implode and he would no longer be able to control his various commanders, who already operate independently for the most part. To be able to purge his militia of all the renegade elements, al-Sadr needed to step back into the picture -- and there was no better time than now, when the United States and Iran are forging ahead with direct negotiations to create a settlement on Iraq.
Surrounded by bodyguards and aides, al-Sadr told his followers during Friday prayers in Kufa that he would not back down from his demand for a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops. After being away for so long, al-Sadr has some damage control to do to demonstrate that his demands will be met (and actually can be met now that Iran and the United States are actively working on a U.S. exit strategy for Iraq.) Furthermore, al-Sadr ordered his Mehdi Army militiamen to refrain from fighting Iraqi security forces, reflecting the quiet cooperation between the U.S. military and al-Sadr that Iran has facilitated.
And it appears that al-Sadr is ready for that cooperation. Just after Friday prayers on May 25, Iraqi special forces backed up by British troops killed Mehdi Army militia commander Abu Qader, also known as Wissam al-Waili, and at least one of his aides after they resisted arrest in the oil-rich southern Iraqi city of Basra. Abu Qader, described as the leader of the Mehdi Army in Basra, was charged with weapons trafficking and carrying out attacks against British forces in the Shiite-dominated south. While normally this sort of incident would result in immediate retaliatory attacks, a senior member of al-Sadr's political bloc said its response to the killing would be limited to "political resistance." It could very well be that Abu Qader had become a Mehdi Army renegade and that his elimination was a quiet show of good faith by al-Sadr.
Moreover, major changes were recently made to the leadership structure of the Mehdi Army, according to a May 23 Al-Quds Al-Arabi report. The reorganization involves moving away from regional commands and toward smaller contingents comprising 23-strong brigades. These changes allow al-Sadr to break down the regional setup that led to the creation of multiple renegade units, and thus exert more control over his movement and the oil resources in Iraq's Shiite-dominated areas. Securing control over the oil-rich city of Basra is of prime concern for al-Sadr, which could explain why he agreed to the "removal" of his top leader in Basra, clearing a path for him to insert a stronger loyalist.
As al-Sadr proceeds in efforts to purge his militia and political bloc of dissidents, he will be counting on the assurances he has received from Tehran that a U.S.-Iranian negotiated blueprint for Iraq will involve implementing a new political order in Baghdad that will safeguard the interests of the al-Sadrite movement.
The world's most expensive club
May 24th 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
China's investment in Blackstone shows how government investors are flourishing at the heart of the financial system
Satoshi Kambayashi
WITH $1.2 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves and the pool growing by more than $1 billion every day, China casts a giant's shadow over the global financial markets, even if it has mostly used the money to pile up American Treasury bonds. The announcement on May 21st that it would invest $3 billion of its reserves in Blackstone, a New York-based private-equity firm soon to issue shares, shows that it is prepared to barge into murky private markets as well as liquid public ones. It is not the only inscrutable country to be cosying up to the inscrutable private-equity industry. Around the world, a secretive society is emerging of governments flush with foreign assets, some of them petrodollars, that are increasingly calling the shots in international finance. The Blackstone deal is likely to stir others to invest their money even farther away from prying eyes than they do already.
Like China, whose proposed Blackstone stake is part of $300 billion that the government plans to set aside this year for investment purposes, dozens of countries have set up what are now commonly referred to as sovereign-wealth funds. They manage money drawn from reserves, natural-resource payments and the like. China is chiefly concerned to diversify its foreign reserves, but other sovereign-wealth funds own national, as well as international, assets.
The top 12 each have anything from $20 billion to hundreds of billions of dollars to invest (see table). Recently, Japan, Russia and India have reportedly been considering setting up funds along similar lines. Some estimates put the size of the funds at $2.5 trillion by the end of this year (in contrast, hedge funds are thought to have a mere $1.6 trillion), with another $450 billion in transfers from reserves being added annually. Including capital appreciation, the amount could swell to $12 trillion by 2015.
To the extent governments have traditionally held investment assets, it was to protect domestic currencies and banks from crisis. Since the funds were for emergencies, they were of a type that could be liquidated easily—initially the holdings were in precious metals, lately they have been in dollars. The idea of building up an endowment to replace shrinking natural resources did not exist.
That process may have started inadvertently in 1956 when the British administration of the Gilbert Islands in Micronesia put a levy on the export of phosphates—bird manure—used in fertiliser. The manure has long since been depleted. However, a once-tiny set-aside of money has become the Kiribati Revenue Equalisation Reserve Fund, a $520m investment portfolio that has grown to about nine times the tiny atoll's GDP.
A similar approach is now common among oil-producing countries, which, it is estimated, account for two-thirds of the assets in these sovereign-wealth funds, and are keen to diversify their national revenues, aware that their wealth is being pumped away. They have typically invested along similar lines to central banks, holding bonds, dollars and bank deposits. Temasek, a Singaporean entity created in 1974 to pool state-owned investments, started to change the mindset. It subsequently evolved into an even more complex investment vehicle. The heady combination of state-control, success and secrecy, entranced other governments.
Recently, central bankers have also begun wondering whether they have a fiduciary duty to make higher returns from the public wealth under their supervision, which could mean placing at least some part of foreign-exchange reserves in high-yielding, if less liquid, investments. In Asia this question has become increasingly pertinent in the past two years, as reserves have mushroomed.
The result has been a torrent of money into a finite pool of assets. There is no precedent for such fortunes suddenly to find their way into global financial markets, and they help explain the waterfall of liquidity that has driven up the value of risky (and less risky) assets of all descriptions around the world. The world's entire supply of shares is $55 trillion, and bonds account for a similar amount. Sovereign-wealth funds could soon become the most important buyers of such assets, and many others besides. If so, the world will witness the intriguing spectacle of its largest private companies being owned by governments whose belief in capitalism is often partial.
The last time governments were this involved in sinking money into private assets, the process tended to be called nationalisation. Now the funds are invested both abroad and domestically. A new term will have to be coined: internationalisation, perhaps.
Northern light
Of the biggest sovereign funds, only Norway's provides anything close to transparency. Each year it discloses its investment portfolios and returns. Without such a window on their investments, it is hard to fathom the interests of other funds—how they vote on shareholder motions, for example. There are likely to be questions about strategic objectives, too. What will they care about most? Economic returns, political objectives, securing strategic resources? It will be hard to tell.
Andrew Rozanov, of State Street Bank, argues that the lack of well-defined obligations and the ability to retain funds indefinitely while not having to reveal results is an investment advantage. The funds can harvest the benefits of volatility and illiquidity unavailable to the risk averse. It would not be surprising if some did particularly well. On the other hand, the same factors that could lead to higher returns could also lead to corruption and untoward political intervention.
But the kind of assets the funds invest in—big ones—can generate frictions even when run properly. Temasek has been embroiled in controversy in Thailand after it bought Shin Corp, one of the country's telecoms companies, from Thaksin Shinawatra, the country's deposed prime minister. China is no stranger to such tensions. In an event that still rankles, CNOOC, the state-controlled oil company, was blocked in America, supposedly on national-security grounds from acquiring Unocal, an oil company. It is quite possible that by purchasing a non-voting interest in Blackstone, China will be able to bypass the restrictions that might prevent it doing Unocal-style deals in Europe and America.
By choosing a private-equity firm, China will also be able to invest directly in a partner that, notwithstanding its forthcoming share offering, can keep many of its operations out of the public eye. But this is where the ironies of the deal are most apparent. “Crony capitalism? It is a marriage made in heaven—a partnership that does not want investors to ask questions with a country whose firms do not want investors to ask questions. I worry about the serious conflicts of interest this generates. More generally, government entities shouldn't be in the business of investing in private firms,” opines Raghuram Rajan, of the University of Chicago's Graduate School of Business.
Moreover, it is widely believed that by having China as a partner, Blackstone will receive preferential access to China's market (as well as providing China with experience it clearly covets on how to set up its own domestic private-equity industry). This is an advantage for Blackstone, and for its shareholders, China included, particularly so when other private-equity firms complain that the impediments to operating in China are growing.
However, providing an economic incentive to a lucky few, even if that includes the government itself, impedes China's broader need to create a fair and transparent financial market for all participants. That is what would produce the most efficient market for capital.
China still has vast holdings of state assets, and its embryonic stockmarket is bubbling over—if anything it needs more publicly traded companies. Like other countries with sovereign-wealth funds, it would appear to need more expertise in selling companies that it owns, rather than learning how to buy the ones it does not
Click http://www.economist.com/images/20070526/CFN411.gif
Defences against cyberwarfare are still rudimentary. That's scary
Newly nasty
May 24th 2007
From The Economist print edition
Peter Schrank
IMAGINE that agents of a hostile power, working in conjunction with organised crime, could cause huge traffic jams in your country's biggest cities—big enough to paralyse business, the media, government and public services, and to cut you off from the world. That would be seen as a grave risk to national security, surely?
Yes—unless the attacks came over the internet. For most governments, defending their national security against cyberwarfare means keeping hackers out of important government computers. Much less thought has been given to the risks posed by large-scale disruption of the public internet. Modern life depends on it, yet it is open to all comers. That is why the world's richest countries and their military planners are now studying intensively the attacks on Estonia that started four weeks ago, amid that country's row with Russia about moving a Soviet-era war memorial.
Even at their crudest, the assaults broke new ground. For the first time, a state faced a frontal, anonymous attack that swamped the websites of banks, ministries, newspapers and broadcasters; that hobbled Estonia's efforts to make its case abroad. Previous bouts of cyberwarfare have been far more limited by comparison: probing another country's internet defences, rather as a reconnaissance plane tests air defences.
At full tilt, the onslaught on Estonia was also of a sophistication not seen before, with tactics shifting as weaknesses emerged. “Particular 'ports' of particular mission-critical computers in, for example, the telephone exchanges were targeted. Packet 'bombs' of hundreds of megabytes in size would be sent first to one address, then another,” says Linnar Viik, Estonia's top internet guru. Such efforts exceed the skills of individual activists or even organised crime; they require the co-operation of a state and a large telecoms firm, he says. The effects could have been life-threatening. The emergency number used to call ambulances and the fire service was out of action for more than an hour.
For many countries, the events of the past weeks have been a loud wake-up call. Estonia, one of the most wired nations in Europe, actually survived pretty well. Other countries would have fared worse, NATO specialists reckon.
National security experts used to dealing with high-explosives and body counts find cyberwarfare a baffling new theatre of operations. In Estonia's case, “botnets” (swarms of computers hijacked by surreptitiously placed code, usually spread by spam) swamped sites by deluging them with bogus requests for information. Called a “distributed denial of service” (DDOS) attack, this at its peak involved more than 1m computers, creating traffic equivalent to 5,000 clicks per second on some targets. Some parts were highly co-ordinated—stopping precisely at midnight, for example. Frank Cilluffo, an expert formerly at the White House, says that the attack's signature suggests that more than one group was at work, with small-time hackers following the initial huge sorties.
Most countries have been complacent about guarding information infrastructure. In America, a congressional committee for computer security has given failing grades to many of the federal bodies it scrutinises. The Department of Homeland Security supposedly has a “cybersecurity czar” but the throne has not yet found a steady occupant.
Private firms have had more experience in fighting off internet attacks. Organised crime gangs, often from Eastern Europe, extort money from gambling and pornography sites by using botnets to make them unreachable. Last week a large DDOS attack hit YLE, Finland's public broadcaster. This week Britain's Daily Telegraph was hit. No political or financial motive was apparent. A Romania-based hacker led the Finnish attack.
Firms of varying competence and credibility peddle technical solutions. The typical protection against DDOS attacks is to buy lots of extra computers and bandwidth to handle an unexpected spike in traffic. “Mirroring” content across several servers means the cyber-attackers must hit many more targets simultaneously before disrupting anything. A system's architecture helps too: Estonia's open approach, with its built-in flexibility and resilience, and co-operation between the state, business and academics, worked well. Mr Viik hopes this will deter those trying to build cyberdefences on a military or state monopoly model.
Counterattacks are possible, but tricky. Security firms' staff can pose as hackers to infiltrate cybergangsterdom. This used to be a mere battle of wits. Now there are real fears of violence. “It's changed now that big money is involved. It is not beyond the realm of imagination that someone might be targeted,” says Mikko Hyppönen of F-Secure, an internet security firm.
But technology and sleuthing offer only a partial fix. The real question facing industrialised countries is how to create a legal environment that counts cyberaggression not as a kind of practical joke, but a grave breach of the legal order, akin to terrorism, international organised crime, or aggression against another state.
NATO is rethinking its position. It is designed to protect members against physical attack. When Estonia appealed for help it could only send an observer to Tallinn to monitor the attacks. For now, informal alliances are more useful. Internet companies in friendly countries such as Sweden headed off many of the attacks before they even reached Estonia. Ken Silva, the security chief at VeriSign, which runs big chunks of the internet's domain-name system, advocates defences at the core of the network to tackle malicious data-packets before they reach their target. But finding agreement among the world's privately run internet networks is hard.
The urgent need is for an international legal code that defines cybercrimes more precisely, and offers the basis for some remedies. The Council of Europe, a continent-wide talking-shop that is the guardian of many international legal conventions, has a treaty on cybercrime dating from 2001. Acceptance has been partial. From overseas, America and Japan have signed up; Russia so far hasn't.
The International Telecommunication Union, which unites all 191 countries that use the world telephone system, hopes to take the lead in pushing for a global convention against cybercrime. Alexander Mtoko, its expert on cyberwarfare, says the key issue is anonymity: “We are in an industry where there is no control, no rules, no identities—it's the wild west. But for critical applications you have to know who you are dealing with.” NATO experts agree. At a minimum, any international cybercrime convention is likely to oblige internet service providers to co-operate in blocking DDOS attacks coming from their subscribers' computers.
Yet the underlying problem is the internet itself. Wreaking havoc with anonymous telephone calls is hard. The internet's inherent openness allows hackers to hide. Yet that also helps make it cheap and innovative. Some countries may be more willing than others to trade freedom for security.
Mr Viik thinks a new global cybersecurity treaty may be reached by 2012. But victory will never be complete, thanks to the asymmetry between cat and mouse, notes Bruce Schneier, a security expert. “It is easier to come up with a new attack than with a new defence,” he says. The strongest defence, says Mr Cilluffo, may be resilience: “the ability to reconstitute quickly, recover and absorb.”
May 24th 2007
From The Economist print edition
Peter Schrank
IMAGINE that agents of a hostile power, working in conjunction with organised crime, could cause huge traffic jams in your country's biggest cities—big enough to paralyse business, the media, government and public services, and to cut you off from the world. That would be seen as a grave risk to national security, surely?
Yes—unless the attacks came over the internet. For most governments, defending their national security against cyberwarfare means keeping hackers out of important government computers. Much less thought has been given to the risks posed by large-scale disruption of the public internet. Modern life depends on it, yet it is open to all comers. That is why the world's richest countries and their military planners are now studying intensively the attacks on Estonia that started four weeks ago, amid that country's row with Russia about moving a Soviet-era war memorial.
Even at their crudest, the assaults broke new ground. For the first time, a state faced a frontal, anonymous attack that swamped the websites of banks, ministries, newspapers and broadcasters; that hobbled Estonia's efforts to make its case abroad. Previous bouts of cyberwarfare have been far more limited by comparison: probing another country's internet defences, rather as a reconnaissance plane tests air defences.
At full tilt, the onslaught on Estonia was also of a sophistication not seen before, with tactics shifting as weaknesses emerged. “Particular 'ports' of particular mission-critical computers in, for example, the telephone exchanges were targeted. Packet 'bombs' of hundreds of megabytes in size would be sent first to one address, then another,” says Linnar Viik, Estonia's top internet guru. Such efforts exceed the skills of individual activists or even organised crime; they require the co-operation of a state and a large telecoms firm, he says. The effects could have been life-threatening. The emergency number used to call ambulances and the fire service was out of action for more than an hour.
For many countries, the events of the past weeks have been a loud wake-up call. Estonia, one of the most wired nations in Europe, actually survived pretty well. Other countries would have fared worse, NATO specialists reckon.
National security experts used to dealing with high-explosives and body counts find cyberwarfare a baffling new theatre of operations. In Estonia's case, “botnets” (swarms of computers hijacked by surreptitiously placed code, usually spread by spam) swamped sites by deluging them with bogus requests for information. Called a “distributed denial of service” (DDOS) attack, this at its peak involved more than 1m computers, creating traffic equivalent to 5,000 clicks per second on some targets. Some parts were highly co-ordinated—stopping precisely at midnight, for example. Frank Cilluffo, an expert formerly at the White House, says that the attack's signature suggests that more than one group was at work, with small-time hackers following the initial huge sorties.
Most countries have been complacent about guarding information infrastructure. In America, a congressional committee for computer security has given failing grades to many of the federal bodies it scrutinises. The Department of Homeland Security supposedly has a “cybersecurity czar” but the throne has not yet found a steady occupant.
Private firms have had more experience in fighting off internet attacks. Organised crime gangs, often from Eastern Europe, extort money from gambling and pornography sites by using botnets to make them unreachable. Last week a large DDOS attack hit YLE, Finland's public broadcaster. This week Britain's Daily Telegraph was hit. No political or financial motive was apparent. A Romania-based hacker led the Finnish attack.
Firms of varying competence and credibility peddle technical solutions. The typical protection against DDOS attacks is to buy lots of extra computers and bandwidth to handle an unexpected spike in traffic. “Mirroring” content across several servers means the cyber-attackers must hit many more targets simultaneously before disrupting anything. A system's architecture helps too: Estonia's open approach, with its built-in flexibility and resilience, and co-operation between the state, business and academics, worked well. Mr Viik hopes this will deter those trying to build cyberdefences on a military or state monopoly model.
Counterattacks are possible, but tricky. Security firms' staff can pose as hackers to infiltrate cybergangsterdom. This used to be a mere battle of wits. Now there are real fears of violence. “It's changed now that big money is involved. It is not beyond the realm of imagination that someone might be targeted,” says Mikko Hyppönen of F-Secure, an internet security firm.
But technology and sleuthing offer only a partial fix. The real question facing industrialised countries is how to create a legal environment that counts cyberaggression not as a kind of practical joke, but a grave breach of the legal order, akin to terrorism, international organised crime, or aggression against another state.
NATO is rethinking its position. It is designed to protect members against physical attack. When Estonia appealed for help it could only send an observer to Tallinn to monitor the attacks. For now, informal alliances are more useful. Internet companies in friendly countries such as Sweden headed off many of the attacks before they even reached Estonia. Ken Silva, the security chief at VeriSign, which runs big chunks of the internet's domain-name system, advocates defences at the core of the network to tackle malicious data-packets before they reach their target. But finding agreement among the world's privately run internet networks is hard.
The urgent need is for an international legal code that defines cybercrimes more precisely, and offers the basis for some remedies. The Council of Europe, a continent-wide talking-shop that is the guardian of many international legal conventions, has a treaty on cybercrime dating from 2001. Acceptance has been partial. From overseas, America and Japan have signed up; Russia so far hasn't.
The International Telecommunication Union, which unites all 191 countries that use the world telephone system, hopes to take the lead in pushing for a global convention against cybercrime. Alexander Mtoko, its expert on cyberwarfare, says the key issue is anonymity: “We are in an industry where there is no control, no rules, no identities—it's the wild west. But for critical applications you have to know who you are dealing with.” NATO experts agree. At a minimum, any international cybercrime convention is likely to oblige internet service providers to co-operate in blocking DDOS attacks coming from their subscribers' computers.
Yet the underlying problem is the internet itself. Wreaking havoc with anonymous telephone calls is hard. The internet's inherent openness allows hackers to hide. Yet that also helps make it cheap and innovative. Some countries may be more willing than others to trade freedom for security.
Mr Viik thinks a new global cybersecurity treaty may be reached by 2012. But victory will never be complete, thanks to the asymmetry between cat and mouse, notes Bruce Schneier, a security expert. “It is easier to come up with a new attack than with a new defence,” he says. The strongest defence, says Mr Cilluffo, may be resilience: “the ability to reconstitute quickly, recover and absorb.”
My Mother's Baghdad
http://www.bestlifeonline.com/
By: Joseph Braude
Jan 3, 2007 - 1:19:07 AM
She spoke of a peaceful cosmopolitan city where Muslims, Christians and Jews lived side by side—a vision that has guided my life and work
An unmarked FBI van sped past my college residence at Yale and paused a block and a half away, engine purring. The driver had his usual instructions from the New Haven field office to avoid the appearance of waiting for me in front of my dorm.
“Just get in quick.”
We raced to a nearby town and established contact with a dozen or so armed field agents who had been passing time in unmarked sedans, covertly circling a small-time mosque. The driver turned up the volume of what sounded like AM radio, but instead of a Red Sox game, a tense conversation in Arabic, fuzzy with static, came through the speakers. The van’s receiver was tuned in to a wired microphone that a Muslim worshipper inside had agreed to wear up his pants, past his crotch, and underneath his shirt.
“The guy is Iraqi,” my handler piped up from the backseat. “He hasn’t slept in two weeks, ever since the cleric in there supposedly started threatening to break his arms and legs. If you hear the imam breathe so much as a word that sounds like a personal threat to the guy, just say so and we’re going to bust down the friggin’ door.”
It was spring 1996, my senior year in college. At 21, I had no idea exactly what I wanted to do with my life, but the FBI did. They assigned me to help them find out if this Egyptian cleric, long in the agency’s sights, had broken the law. According to the Iraqi, the cleric had threatened him for planning to join an “infidel” organization. Would he make the mistake of repeating his threat? The four of us sat there tense and sweating. The van’s stuffy air seemed to aggravate a palpable urge on the part of the agents to move out and storm the place.
“Come on, Joe, what’s he saying?”
I concentrated on the layers of a nuanced Arabic-language power play between the cleric and his disaffected minion. I detected an Egyptian dialect, paper-light but confident and laced with Quranic phrasing.
“I mean to steer you toward the straight path, my son,” the cleric said. “My advice is only for your benefit.”
“But you have terrified my wife and me,” the congregant replied.
There was a pause, broken by the cleric’s warm chuckle. “Our only reckoning is with God, my son.”
“What’s he saying?” is a dangerous question for a translator barely out of his teens, especially in a high-stakes situation in which the speaker and audience are foreigners and violence is possible. The struggle to answer this question responsibly—to navigate the linguistic, cultural, and historic barriers that wall off East from West—was one of the reasons I began studying Near Eastern languages and history in college. It was the reason I was sitting here in the darkness on a warm spring night.
Maybe this passion to listen, to understand, to explain is the inevitable fate of a man born into a family whose history straddles the fault lines of today’s sectarian conflicts. Perhaps it all leads back to my mother, who became a refugee from Baghdad at age 5, one of more than 120,000 Iraqi Jews who fled their native soil in 1951 after 2,800 years of continuous history in Mesopotamia. But a refugee never entirely leaves the city of her birth. Memories of the place trail her through life, then live on in her children’s dreams. My brother and I grew up hearing her speak of a Baghdad that no longer exists—a peaceful multiethnic city, once a jewel of the Middle East, which has been fading from the war-torn landscape of Iraq for decades.
Behind high vine-shrouded stone walls, my mother listened to her nanny tell animal fables under a palm tree’s restful shade. Roses, gardenias, lemons, strawberries, and okra grew in a garden flanked by water fountains. My mother tells me there were family outings in a colorful bustling town, of pastoral scenes at home that changed with the seasons. When winter’s cold crept into her house, the Persian carpets were spread across the chilly tiles on the ground floor, only to be rolled up and transplanted to the rooftop for the summertime, “when the family went up and slept in the open air to keep cool.” The Tigris River, too, brought a welcome breeze during the hot season: “We would take a boat to a little island in the Tigris, and your grandfather and your uncles would catch fish and spit grill them for our picnic.”
Why, then, did she, her parents, five siblings, and tens of thousands of Iraqi Jews leave this wonderful place—nearly all at once? By the time we’d grown old enough to learn the answer, the sunnier parts of my mother’s youthful Baghdad had seeped into us.
Even as a 5-year-old, my nose knew the smell of an Iraqi kitchen: Tbeet, a centuries-old Babylonian dish that cooks overnight on the Sabbath, features stuffed chicken quarters and whole eggs in their shells sitting in a reddish-brown cloud of rice, cardamom, diced tomatoes, cinnamon, and onions. This dish, she quipped, sometimes had to serve as a Baghdad mother’s tool of last resort to dissuade her son from leaving Judaism for Islam—not an unheard-of occurrence. “You can abandon our community, but are you ready to give up the eggs in this tbeet?” was supposedly the question that stopped many a prospective convert in his tracks.
In my hometown of Providence, Rhode Island, Rita Braude looked out of time and place. Her willowy frame, dark complexion, and piercing olive-shaped eyes turned bearded heads at the Orthodox Jewish day school where she taught Hebrew to kids. Her students and peers looked and sounded a continent apart from her, their light skin and Yiddish-infused banter a product of their Eastern European ancestry. To fit in, she peppered her conversation with quotes from the Torah and Talmud, showing her acquaintance with the Babylonian roots of Hebrew lore.
At home, however, her Arabic flowed as naturally as her Hebrew, and she never missed a chance to mix the two. One day, for example, my brother and I brought her a verse from the Book of Ecclesiastes, the sad truism “That which is crooked cannot be made straight.” We wanted to know what it meant.
“In Arabic,” she responded, switching seamlessly from Hebrew into Judeo-Iraqi dialect, “we say, ‘The tail of the dog cannot be made straight.’ That’s because there was a legendary experiment in Baghdad, in which they tied the crooked tail of a dog to a branch in order to stretch it out, and then left it that way for 40 days.”
My little brother eyed her quizzically as she grabbed hold of an invisible tail between her clenched fists. “When after 40 days they untied the tail from the branch, it snapped back”—she mimed a sudden momentary loss of balance as she released her fists from their air grip—“into its original crooked position. So we say that even after 40 days— arb’in yom—you still cannot straighten the dog’s tail.”
She was teaching us to feel at home with the Arabic and Islamic sensibilities she had known growing up, and the American and Jewish ones that surrounded us in Providence. Just how rare her attitude was didn’t dawn on me until years later. I came to appreciate that the Baghdad of my mother’s girlhood had left her with something extraordinary to share, a vision the world still needed.
She was born into the waning years of an Iraqi constitutional monarchy in which Muslims, Christians, and Jews thrived under a benign Muslim king. Synagogues dotted the capital’s cityscape, sometimes right next door to mosques. Mom’s turbaned great-grandfather had been one of the last chief rabbis of a Jewish community that numbered as high as 40 percent of Baghdad’s population. Unlike the cities of Europe, Baghdad had no Jewish ghetto. Our family’s neighbors and friends were from all of the city’s creeds.
Even after the city’s interfaith honeymoon ended, the nobler values of Iraqi culture still flickered, albeit amid a rising wave of sectarian bloodshed. In 1941, Iraqi nationalists from the military and security services, along with German-backed fascist groups and criminals from Baghdad’s slums, killed several hundred men, women, and children. Though most of the victims were Jews, more than 100 Muslims died too, many of whom were fighting to protect their Jewish neighbors.
The mass lynching was an early manifestation of a brutal variety of Arab nationalism that shows little tolerance for minority groups. Sixty-six years later, it still functions as a crutch for dictators across the region. My mother’s enduring love for her birthplace is permanently scarred by the trauma of that black day. But to her sons, she stressed the flip side of the story: The fact that so many Iraqi Muslims willingly died to defend their cosmopolitan values, she said, was “like a sapling of hope, never to be forgotten.”
“Learn to recognize it,” she would add. “Learn to nurture it, every chance you have.”
Come on Joe, where’s the conversation going?”
I strained to make out the voices coming from inside the mosque, but they mixed with my mother’s voice deep in my memory. I felt empathy for the aggrieved Iraqi and suspicion toward the operation’s Egyptian target. I could also feel the agents’ pent-up energy, which kept swelling. I knew I had to deflate it.
“Can’t say I’m hearing the cleric make an overt threat right now, guys,” I said. “Either he’s a decent man and your source was mistaken, or the cleric is holding his tongue because he can smell us sweating out here.”
The squad dispersed without a prisoner to show for the outing, and my handler dropped me off on campus at Sterling Memorial Library. As Mom used to say in Judeo-Arabic, citing an Iraqi adage she’d grown up with, “You returned exactly as you had left.” Which was a better outcome, I think, for everyone concerned than to drive away with an innocent and handcuffed holy man in the backseat.
For five years, I moonlighted with the FBI while continuing Arabic and Islamic studies in college and grad school. In the end, it was enough to breed lifelong doubts in me about the capacity of covert government action to stem the rising tide of Islamist militancy. Not long before September 11, I quit and resolved to travel east. Call it that all-American passion to learn more about the old country—only a much older and unrulier country than, say, Ireland. I aimed to find my own answers by communing with a distant past.
No guidebook was available to help an American Jewish boy find his Babylonian roots in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Denied a visa, I circled Iraq’s periphery instead—following the lilt of people’s accents, the aroma of their cooking, and the timbre of their music—looking for traces of the Baghdad I had never seen but had learned somehow to long for.
“From your accent, I can tell you’re Iraqi,” a uniformed customs inspector said to me at the airport in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. Locals there speak in long, deep vowel sounds and clipped gutturals, much like the dialects of southern and central Iraq. “But tell me this,” he went on, “are you Muslim or Christian?”
I thought for a long moment about which answer to give. The U.S. Department of State advises Jews traveling in Arab countries to obscure their background in situations like this, which seemed ironic to me when my ethnicity was precisely what was propelling me there. The ensuing feeling of unease never fades, even during the friendliest exchanges. The same combination of intimacy and distance I had felt while listening in on a wire in an FBI van seemed to travel along with me across the Middle East.
I spent the better part of a decade exploring the oil-rich sheikdoms of the Arabian Gulf to Baghdad’s south, Levantine countries to its west, and Iran to its east. Wherever I went, I sought out the Iraqis: I found them squatting in a refugee camp and pontificating behind a mahogany desk. I talked less and listened more. Those who were old enough to remember the Baghdad of my mother’s childhood shared their longing for the bygone days, their vague hopes for the future.
This winding journey had a finish line: I assembled a decade’s gleanings and distilled them into a book called The New Iraq, my dreamy manifesto for how Iraqis could rebuild their country, with the world’s support, on the strength of their own history and collective memory. It hit bookstores the week the United States invaded Iraq in spring 2003.
By the time I finally crossed the Kuwaiti border into Iraq in May 2003, only 36 Jews were left in Baghdad. Two Iraqi bodyguards, graciously provided by the Iraqi Sunni family that hosted me, dropped me off near the Baghdad home of the youngest Jew in the city and left me there one afternoon. The two guards didn’t know who lived inside. My hosts had warned me that neither one of them would guard me particularly well if they knew much about who I was or whom I was visiting.
Thirty-eight-year-old Emad Levy and his father sat in their starkly furnished living room wearing yarmulkes. Crookedly hanging baby pictures flanked an empty clock socket on the wall over a dusty curtain, which shrouded the only window. The home was nothing like the lavish digs Mom remembered from her childhood. Nothing felt familiar—until Levy opened his mouth.
“What’s it like out there, Ayni?” asked Levy, punctuating his question with the Iraqi term of endearment that literally means “my eyes.” He wasn’t accustomed to having visitors.
In his rare, distinctively Judeo-Iraqi accent, I heard the sound of my childhood back in Providence. It’s an ancient lilt more ironic and self-deprecatory than anything you’d hear on Al-Jazeera. I answered his question with stories about a world neither he nor his parents had ever seen. Our eyes moistened. The stories we exchanged seemed to highlight our mutual estrangement, yet the language we shared brought us deeply, though obscurely, together.
“Has everything really changed here?” I asked. “Is everything about to change?”
“You know,” he replied, “in Baghdad a long time ago, they did a legendary experiment involving a dog’s crooked tail.…”
That which is crooked cannot be made straight. I finished the animal fable for him, and he flashed an approving smile.
“Do you eat tbeet on Saturdays?” I asked.
Levy gesticulated a little wearily in the air. “Who in this town is going to make me tbeet?” he asked.
The sound of rifle fire outside clipped the day’s calm as the sun began to set on Baghdad. Though the city of my mother’s memories felt farther away than ever before, I felt, for just a moment, completely free to be myself for the first time ever in the Arab world.
By: Joseph Braude
Jan 3, 2007 - 1:19:07 AM
She spoke of a peaceful cosmopolitan city where Muslims, Christians and Jews lived side by side—a vision that has guided my life and work
An unmarked FBI van sped past my college residence at Yale and paused a block and a half away, engine purring. The driver had his usual instructions from the New Haven field office to avoid the appearance of waiting for me in front of my dorm.
“Just get in quick.”
We raced to a nearby town and established contact with a dozen or so armed field agents who had been passing time in unmarked sedans, covertly circling a small-time mosque. The driver turned up the volume of what sounded like AM radio, but instead of a Red Sox game, a tense conversation in Arabic, fuzzy with static, came through the speakers. The van’s receiver was tuned in to a wired microphone that a Muslim worshipper inside had agreed to wear up his pants, past his crotch, and underneath his shirt.
“The guy is Iraqi,” my handler piped up from the backseat. “He hasn’t slept in two weeks, ever since the cleric in there supposedly started threatening to break his arms and legs. If you hear the imam breathe so much as a word that sounds like a personal threat to the guy, just say so and we’re going to bust down the friggin’ door.”
It was spring 1996, my senior year in college. At 21, I had no idea exactly what I wanted to do with my life, but the FBI did. They assigned me to help them find out if this Egyptian cleric, long in the agency’s sights, had broken the law. According to the Iraqi, the cleric had threatened him for planning to join an “infidel” organization. Would he make the mistake of repeating his threat? The four of us sat there tense and sweating. The van’s stuffy air seemed to aggravate a palpable urge on the part of the agents to move out and storm the place.
“Come on, Joe, what’s he saying?”
I concentrated on the layers of a nuanced Arabic-language power play between the cleric and his disaffected minion. I detected an Egyptian dialect, paper-light but confident and laced with Quranic phrasing.
“I mean to steer you toward the straight path, my son,” the cleric said. “My advice is only for your benefit.”
“But you have terrified my wife and me,” the congregant replied.
There was a pause, broken by the cleric’s warm chuckle. “Our only reckoning is with God, my son.”
“What’s he saying?” is a dangerous question for a translator barely out of his teens, especially in a high-stakes situation in which the speaker and audience are foreigners and violence is possible. The struggle to answer this question responsibly—to navigate the linguistic, cultural, and historic barriers that wall off East from West—was one of the reasons I began studying Near Eastern languages and history in college. It was the reason I was sitting here in the darkness on a warm spring night.
Maybe this passion to listen, to understand, to explain is the inevitable fate of a man born into a family whose history straddles the fault lines of today’s sectarian conflicts. Perhaps it all leads back to my mother, who became a refugee from Baghdad at age 5, one of more than 120,000 Iraqi Jews who fled their native soil in 1951 after 2,800 years of continuous history in Mesopotamia. But a refugee never entirely leaves the city of her birth. Memories of the place trail her through life, then live on in her children’s dreams. My brother and I grew up hearing her speak of a Baghdad that no longer exists—a peaceful multiethnic city, once a jewel of the Middle East, which has been fading from the war-torn landscape of Iraq for decades.
Behind high vine-shrouded stone walls, my mother listened to her nanny tell animal fables under a palm tree’s restful shade. Roses, gardenias, lemons, strawberries, and okra grew in a garden flanked by water fountains. My mother tells me there were family outings in a colorful bustling town, of pastoral scenes at home that changed with the seasons. When winter’s cold crept into her house, the Persian carpets were spread across the chilly tiles on the ground floor, only to be rolled up and transplanted to the rooftop for the summertime, “when the family went up and slept in the open air to keep cool.” The Tigris River, too, brought a welcome breeze during the hot season: “We would take a boat to a little island in the Tigris, and your grandfather and your uncles would catch fish and spit grill them for our picnic.”
Why, then, did she, her parents, five siblings, and tens of thousands of Iraqi Jews leave this wonderful place—nearly all at once? By the time we’d grown old enough to learn the answer, the sunnier parts of my mother’s youthful Baghdad had seeped into us.
Even as a 5-year-old, my nose knew the smell of an Iraqi kitchen: Tbeet, a centuries-old Babylonian dish that cooks overnight on the Sabbath, features stuffed chicken quarters and whole eggs in their shells sitting in a reddish-brown cloud of rice, cardamom, diced tomatoes, cinnamon, and onions. This dish, she quipped, sometimes had to serve as a Baghdad mother’s tool of last resort to dissuade her son from leaving Judaism for Islam—not an unheard-of occurrence. “You can abandon our community, but are you ready to give up the eggs in this tbeet?” was supposedly the question that stopped many a prospective convert in his tracks.
In my hometown of Providence, Rhode Island, Rita Braude looked out of time and place. Her willowy frame, dark complexion, and piercing olive-shaped eyes turned bearded heads at the Orthodox Jewish day school where she taught Hebrew to kids. Her students and peers looked and sounded a continent apart from her, their light skin and Yiddish-infused banter a product of their Eastern European ancestry. To fit in, she peppered her conversation with quotes from the Torah and Talmud, showing her acquaintance with the Babylonian roots of Hebrew lore.
At home, however, her Arabic flowed as naturally as her Hebrew, and she never missed a chance to mix the two. One day, for example, my brother and I brought her a verse from the Book of Ecclesiastes, the sad truism “That which is crooked cannot be made straight.” We wanted to know what it meant.
“In Arabic,” she responded, switching seamlessly from Hebrew into Judeo-Iraqi dialect, “we say, ‘The tail of the dog cannot be made straight.’ That’s because there was a legendary experiment in Baghdad, in which they tied the crooked tail of a dog to a branch in order to stretch it out, and then left it that way for 40 days.”
My little brother eyed her quizzically as she grabbed hold of an invisible tail between her clenched fists. “When after 40 days they untied the tail from the branch, it snapped back”—she mimed a sudden momentary loss of balance as she released her fists from their air grip—“into its original crooked position. So we say that even after 40 days— arb’in yom—you still cannot straighten the dog’s tail.”
She was teaching us to feel at home with the Arabic and Islamic sensibilities she had known growing up, and the American and Jewish ones that surrounded us in Providence. Just how rare her attitude was didn’t dawn on me until years later. I came to appreciate that the Baghdad of my mother’s girlhood had left her with something extraordinary to share, a vision the world still needed.
She was born into the waning years of an Iraqi constitutional monarchy in which Muslims, Christians, and Jews thrived under a benign Muslim king. Synagogues dotted the capital’s cityscape, sometimes right next door to mosques. Mom’s turbaned great-grandfather had been one of the last chief rabbis of a Jewish community that numbered as high as 40 percent of Baghdad’s population. Unlike the cities of Europe, Baghdad had no Jewish ghetto. Our family’s neighbors and friends were from all of the city’s creeds.
Even after the city’s interfaith honeymoon ended, the nobler values of Iraqi culture still flickered, albeit amid a rising wave of sectarian bloodshed. In 1941, Iraqi nationalists from the military and security services, along with German-backed fascist groups and criminals from Baghdad’s slums, killed several hundred men, women, and children. Though most of the victims were Jews, more than 100 Muslims died too, many of whom were fighting to protect their Jewish neighbors.
The mass lynching was an early manifestation of a brutal variety of Arab nationalism that shows little tolerance for minority groups. Sixty-six years later, it still functions as a crutch for dictators across the region. My mother’s enduring love for her birthplace is permanently scarred by the trauma of that black day. But to her sons, she stressed the flip side of the story: The fact that so many Iraqi Muslims willingly died to defend their cosmopolitan values, she said, was “like a sapling of hope, never to be forgotten.”
“Learn to recognize it,” she would add. “Learn to nurture it, every chance you have.”
Come on Joe, where’s the conversation going?”
I strained to make out the voices coming from inside the mosque, but they mixed with my mother’s voice deep in my memory. I felt empathy for the aggrieved Iraqi and suspicion toward the operation’s Egyptian target. I could also feel the agents’ pent-up energy, which kept swelling. I knew I had to deflate it.
“Can’t say I’m hearing the cleric make an overt threat right now, guys,” I said. “Either he’s a decent man and your source was mistaken, or the cleric is holding his tongue because he can smell us sweating out here.”
The squad dispersed without a prisoner to show for the outing, and my handler dropped me off on campus at Sterling Memorial Library. As Mom used to say in Judeo-Arabic, citing an Iraqi adage she’d grown up with, “You returned exactly as you had left.” Which was a better outcome, I think, for everyone concerned than to drive away with an innocent and handcuffed holy man in the backseat.
For five years, I moonlighted with the FBI while continuing Arabic and Islamic studies in college and grad school. In the end, it was enough to breed lifelong doubts in me about the capacity of covert government action to stem the rising tide of Islamist militancy. Not long before September 11, I quit and resolved to travel east. Call it that all-American passion to learn more about the old country—only a much older and unrulier country than, say, Ireland. I aimed to find my own answers by communing with a distant past.
No guidebook was available to help an American Jewish boy find his Babylonian roots in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Denied a visa, I circled Iraq’s periphery instead—following the lilt of people’s accents, the aroma of their cooking, and the timbre of their music—looking for traces of the Baghdad I had never seen but had learned somehow to long for.
“From your accent, I can tell you’re Iraqi,” a uniformed customs inspector said to me at the airport in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. Locals there speak in long, deep vowel sounds and clipped gutturals, much like the dialects of southern and central Iraq. “But tell me this,” he went on, “are you Muslim or Christian?”
I thought for a long moment about which answer to give. The U.S. Department of State advises Jews traveling in Arab countries to obscure their background in situations like this, which seemed ironic to me when my ethnicity was precisely what was propelling me there. The ensuing feeling of unease never fades, even during the friendliest exchanges. The same combination of intimacy and distance I had felt while listening in on a wire in an FBI van seemed to travel along with me across the Middle East.
I spent the better part of a decade exploring the oil-rich sheikdoms of the Arabian Gulf to Baghdad’s south, Levantine countries to its west, and Iran to its east. Wherever I went, I sought out the Iraqis: I found them squatting in a refugee camp and pontificating behind a mahogany desk. I talked less and listened more. Those who were old enough to remember the Baghdad of my mother’s childhood shared their longing for the bygone days, their vague hopes for the future.
This winding journey had a finish line: I assembled a decade’s gleanings and distilled them into a book called The New Iraq, my dreamy manifesto for how Iraqis could rebuild their country, with the world’s support, on the strength of their own history and collective memory. It hit bookstores the week the United States invaded Iraq in spring 2003.
By the time I finally crossed the Kuwaiti border into Iraq in May 2003, only 36 Jews were left in Baghdad. Two Iraqi bodyguards, graciously provided by the Iraqi Sunni family that hosted me, dropped me off near the Baghdad home of the youngest Jew in the city and left me there one afternoon. The two guards didn’t know who lived inside. My hosts had warned me that neither one of them would guard me particularly well if they knew much about who I was or whom I was visiting.
Thirty-eight-year-old Emad Levy and his father sat in their starkly furnished living room wearing yarmulkes. Crookedly hanging baby pictures flanked an empty clock socket on the wall over a dusty curtain, which shrouded the only window. The home was nothing like the lavish digs Mom remembered from her childhood. Nothing felt familiar—until Levy opened his mouth.
“What’s it like out there, Ayni?” asked Levy, punctuating his question with the Iraqi term of endearment that literally means “my eyes.” He wasn’t accustomed to having visitors.
In his rare, distinctively Judeo-Iraqi accent, I heard the sound of my childhood back in Providence. It’s an ancient lilt more ironic and self-deprecatory than anything you’d hear on Al-Jazeera. I answered his question with stories about a world neither he nor his parents had ever seen. Our eyes moistened. The stories we exchanged seemed to highlight our mutual estrangement, yet the language we shared brought us deeply, though obscurely, together.
“Has everything really changed here?” I asked. “Is everything about to change?”
“You know,” he replied, “in Baghdad a long time ago, they did a legendary experiment involving a dog’s crooked tail.…”
That which is crooked cannot be made straight. I finished the animal fable for him, and he flashed an approving smile.
“Do you eat tbeet on Saturdays?” I asked.
Levy gesticulated a little wearily in the air. “Who in this town is going to make me tbeet?” he asked.
The sound of rifle fire outside clipped the day’s calm as the sun began to set on Baghdad. Though the city of my mother’s memories felt farther away than ever before, I felt, for just a moment, completely free to be myself for the first time ever in the Arab world.
May 25, 2007
A social dimension of Balochistan problem
By Robina Ali Zaidi
Thu, 24 May 2007, 13:49:00
The current conflict in Balochistan is as much social as it is political. The traditional sardars, in order to keep their tribesmen under their control, are generally not interested in their educational, social and political uplift. Likewise, the past governments did not pay the required attention to socio-economic development of the province. Except for the settled areas described as 'A' areas, such as Quetta, Zhob, etc., Sardari System has persisted in Balochistan ever since country's independence. The tribal chief holds the power of life and death over the whole of the tribe. There is no appeal against his decisions. He decides all the disputes of the tribe himself; inter-tribal disputes he settles with the help of other tribal chiefs. He is supposed to provide his flock with collective security and pursues their grievances with the government or with other tribes. When the aggrieved party approaches him, he is mandated to provide them with accommodation, food and shelter. His justice is supposed to be speedy and there is no beating about the bush. His decisions have supposedly only one orientation; to provide satisfaction to the aggrieved party.
The punishment of the guilty is only secondary. More so, the Sardar has the power to levy taxes, up to any amount. He can send his tribe hurtling into war or retire it in peace, back to their hearths, homes and families. He shares the tribe's sorrows and happiness alike and remains a part of it and at no stage alien. And every year he sends out his men to collect his share of goods and services, cash or kind; livestock, sheep, goats, camels; his share in the crop. In addition, he is entitled to get percentage in the fines imposed in cases, civil or criminal.
Balochis are a proud people and have good traditions and traits such as honesty, brotherhood and belief in the purity of their system, inherited from their forefathers. They have 'big egos' and would not accept new systems easily. Any attempt to change it, will be resisted. At the same time, the emerging educated class, the return of expatriates, the influence of electronic and print media and increased trade activity and development in the province is bound to change the feudal culture. Already, there have cropped up political parties representing the emerging middle class.
As the matter of the fact, Sardari system, entrenched since centuries and strengthened by the colonial powers could not be terminated overnight but it could not be allowed to perpetuate indefinitely. It is however, not in the interest of the masses. Unfortunately, the system is persisting owing to illiteracy, economic backwardness and feudal dominated governance. Various governments in Pakistan thought it convenient to maintain the status quo. Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto announced its abolition but could not implement it. Whenever there is a change in the status quo, there is an opposition from those vested interests, who are likely to be adversely affected. Interested external forces normally tend to exploit the internal dissensions. The government seems to have correctly adopted a two-pronged approach to deal with the present situation in the province, i.e., to seriously address the political, economic and social concerns of the people, and to use security forces in areas where there are armed insurgent elements. The Constitution of Pakistan does not allow the prevalent sardari system, maintenance of private armies or militias. These need to be disarmed and abolished. Similarly, the acts of sabotage or damage to public or private life and property cannot be permitted. No person can be allowed to take law into his own hands. The disturbed areas should be given 'A' status on priority. The unlawful activities should be effectively dealt with primarily by the civil armed forces, which need to be strengthened. However, if, in an emergency, the local or provincial authorities are unable to control violent disturbances with the help of civil armed forces, and request for help from the federal government, the armed forces can act in aid of civil power, as stipulated under article 245 of the Constitution of Pakistan.
In any case, peace and security is vital for the development of the province and welfare of the people. The representatives of the people, law-abiding sardars, elder statesmen and the intelligentsia need to be taken on board and a wide range of common people should be involved. The educated Marris, Mengals and Bugtis can match the influence of their traditional tribal chiefs. Any foreign help to militants can be denied through a meaningful engagement with the neighbouring countries. Sustained and solid economic development on a very large scale should be expedited.
If Pakistan has to progress in the competitive world of twenty-first century and follow the internationally accepted norms, the human development index has to be raised and the masses are to be given basic necessities of life, i.e. education, healthcare, jobs, etc. Balochistan cannot be kept away from the national and international influences in a world that has become a global village; expatriates are returning from abroad with an international outlook; and there is explosion of knowledge through media. It seems that the social and economic development in the province will create and strengthen a middle class, which will be the rivals of feudal leaders. There should, therefore, be a conscious effort to eliminate feudalism and sardari system through sustained efforts and solid economic development and reforms. In course of time, the archaic feudal order will be replaced by a modern egalitarian society. If the citizens have basic necessities of life and are provided with equal opportunities for education, health care and employment, the status quo will be changed. The sooner it is done, the better for the people of Balochistan. Although Balochistan has not been given the attention that it deserved in the past, there seems no doubt that under the new thrust and orientation of national policies, Balochistan is set for a change for the better.
© Copyright 2003 by The New Nation
Thu, 24 May 2007, 13:49:00
The current conflict in Balochistan is as much social as it is political. The traditional sardars, in order to keep their tribesmen under their control, are generally not interested in their educational, social and political uplift. Likewise, the past governments did not pay the required attention to socio-economic development of the province. Except for the settled areas described as 'A' areas, such as Quetta, Zhob, etc., Sardari System has persisted in Balochistan ever since country's independence. The tribal chief holds the power of life and death over the whole of the tribe. There is no appeal against his decisions. He decides all the disputes of the tribe himself; inter-tribal disputes he settles with the help of other tribal chiefs. He is supposed to provide his flock with collective security and pursues their grievances with the government or with other tribes. When the aggrieved party approaches him, he is mandated to provide them with accommodation, food and shelter. His justice is supposed to be speedy and there is no beating about the bush. His decisions have supposedly only one orientation; to provide satisfaction to the aggrieved party.
The punishment of the guilty is only secondary. More so, the Sardar has the power to levy taxes, up to any amount. He can send his tribe hurtling into war or retire it in peace, back to their hearths, homes and families. He shares the tribe's sorrows and happiness alike and remains a part of it and at no stage alien. And every year he sends out his men to collect his share of goods and services, cash or kind; livestock, sheep, goats, camels; his share in the crop. In addition, he is entitled to get percentage in the fines imposed in cases, civil or criminal.
Balochis are a proud people and have good traditions and traits such as honesty, brotherhood and belief in the purity of their system, inherited from their forefathers. They have 'big egos' and would not accept new systems easily. Any attempt to change it, will be resisted. At the same time, the emerging educated class, the return of expatriates, the influence of electronic and print media and increased trade activity and development in the province is bound to change the feudal culture. Already, there have cropped up political parties representing the emerging middle class.
As the matter of the fact, Sardari system, entrenched since centuries and strengthened by the colonial powers could not be terminated overnight but it could not be allowed to perpetuate indefinitely. It is however, not in the interest of the masses. Unfortunately, the system is persisting owing to illiteracy, economic backwardness and feudal dominated governance. Various governments in Pakistan thought it convenient to maintain the status quo. Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto announced its abolition but could not implement it. Whenever there is a change in the status quo, there is an opposition from those vested interests, who are likely to be adversely affected. Interested external forces normally tend to exploit the internal dissensions. The government seems to have correctly adopted a two-pronged approach to deal with the present situation in the province, i.e., to seriously address the political, economic and social concerns of the people, and to use security forces in areas where there are armed insurgent elements. The Constitution of Pakistan does not allow the prevalent sardari system, maintenance of private armies or militias. These need to be disarmed and abolished. Similarly, the acts of sabotage or damage to public or private life and property cannot be permitted. No person can be allowed to take law into his own hands. The disturbed areas should be given 'A' status on priority. The unlawful activities should be effectively dealt with primarily by the civil armed forces, which need to be strengthened. However, if, in an emergency, the local or provincial authorities are unable to control violent disturbances with the help of civil armed forces, and request for help from the federal government, the armed forces can act in aid of civil power, as stipulated under article 245 of the Constitution of Pakistan.
In any case, peace and security is vital for the development of the province and welfare of the people. The representatives of the people, law-abiding sardars, elder statesmen and the intelligentsia need to be taken on board and a wide range of common people should be involved. The educated Marris, Mengals and Bugtis can match the influence of their traditional tribal chiefs. Any foreign help to militants can be denied through a meaningful engagement with the neighbouring countries. Sustained and solid economic development on a very large scale should be expedited.
If Pakistan has to progress in the competitive world of twenty-first century and follow the internationally accepted norms, the human development index has to be raised and the masses are to be given basic necessities of life, i.e. education, healthcare, jobs, etc. Balochistan cannot be kept away from the national and international influences in a world that has become a global village; expatriates are returning from abroad with an international outlook; and there is explosion of knowledge through media. It seems that the social and economic development in the province will create and strengthen a middle class, which will be the rivals of feudal leaders. There should, therefore, be a conscious effort to eliminate feudalism and sardari system through sustained efforts and solid economic development and reforms. In course of time, the archaic feudal order will be replaced by a modern egalitarian society. If the citizens have basic necessities of life and are provided with equal opportunities for education, health care and employment, the status quo will be changed. The sooner it is done, the better for the people of Balochistan. Although Balochistan has not been given the attention that it deserved in the past, there seems no doubt that under the new thrust and orientation of national policies, Balochistan is set for a change for the better.
© Copyright 2003 by The New Nation
Book Review - Pakistan: Sovereignty Lost
Buried in debt
National debt is a serious subject which must be discussed in a sober rather than sensational manner, writes Dr Muhammad Reza Kazimi
Dawn: Books and Authors, May 20, 2007
Book Review: Pakistan: Sovereignty Lost
By Shahid ur Rehman
Shahid ur Rehman, a veteran journalist known for his economic and diplomatic reports, is correspondent for Kyodo News Agency of Japan. His other books include Who Owns Pakistan? and Long Road to Chagai
Pakistan is burdened with debt. This constricts its diplomatic and security options. There have been attempts by previous governments to liquidate the debt. Resumption of aid following Pakistan’s joining the ‘War Against Terror’ gave the impression that the debt burden had been greatly relieved. Shahid ur Rehman assures us that it has not. The Introduction of his book highlights his main contentions and it is here that he shifts the burden of guilt from economic to political decisions. It is an indictment of our country’s early leadership. Some of these observations are factual and correct but even here, the documentation is not adequate, which prevents his observations from acquiring context.
Shahid ur Rehman says that Pakistan first lost its sovereignty immediately after its independence, when the Quaid-i-Azam sought a $2 billion economic assistance from the United States (P.15). The background to this is that the US was the only country to send a delegation to attend the Independence celebrations of Pakistan, while the USSR was the only country not to congratulate Pakistan on its creation. The Indian government had withheld Pakistan’s share of its financial assets. The 17 per cent which was paid after Gandhi’s protests was barely sufficient to meet our initial expenditure.
In an investigative treatise, it is necessary to mention the primary cause of the events described. According to the author, Liaquat Ali Khan and Khwaja Nazim uddin renewed the request only two days after Liaquat’s assassination. It needed to be ascertained whether Liaquat’s signature was genuine, since this is an assertion which is at odds with other US documents. Liaquat’s meeting with the US envoy Avra Warren only four days before his assassination; had been contentious. Warren had asked for Pakistan to contribute towards Middle East defence. Liaquat made the contribution contingent on a Kashmir solution and not on $2 billion. In fact, Liaquat was broaching a joint defence with Iran and Egypt, against the western bloc.
Shahid ur Rehman tells us that in 1952, wheat imported from the US was transported on camel carts with “Thank you America” written on the signs hanging from the animals’ necks. This, by itself is correct, but here one is tempted to register a counter complaint:
“Not long ago, while one of the authors was in Pakistan, our economic mission delivered a shipment of American tractors. Within a few days, it was commonly accepted throughout the countryside that the tractors had been given by Russia” (A Factual Epilogue: The Ugly American, P.282)
Shahid ur Rehman in his Introduction blames Ayub Khan for the grant of the Badaber Base. Further on, he himself refers to the acrimonious correspondence between Ayub and Lyndon B. Johnson over its closure: “I give not a fig for Pakistan except as its interests are ours” (P.17). Earlier McConaughy wrote: “The fight to the finish would destroy Pakistan’s military capability, which is not in American interests” (British Papers, P.381). Every envoy is meant to consider the interest of his or her own country and not the country of accreditation. Clearly, McConaughy was answering the charge that he was being sympathetic to the country to which he was assigned.
Under the heading ‘Mystery of Liaquat’s visit to the US’ (P.30), Shahid ur Rehman persists in the face of overwhelming documentary evidence to the contrary, that Liaquat used USSR’s invitation to cadge an invitation from the US. But it is another fact that the USSR, after having extended the invitation, never set the dates. Before embarking for USA; on American soil and on his return, Liaquat reiterated that he had accepted Stalin’s invitation but he could only go when the dates were set.
But before rendering judgments, one must keep in sight, that even now, the India-US Nuclear Treaty and Russia’s supply of five nuclear reactors to India are proceeding simultaneously. It is naïve to think that the same conditions that apply to India would also apply to Pakistan, which brings us back to the advantages accruing to India, and the disadvantages accruing to Pakistan at the time of its creation. To blame the founding fathers instead of recognising the predicament in which the new country found itself, is quite a distortion.
National debt is a serious subject which must be discussed in a sober rather than sensational manner. It was found necessary because, when the author comes to his subject, he is on firm ground. In a situation when the people of Pakistan are kept from knowing the extent of their debt, when the loan is staggering despite the respite granted to Pakistan for its cooperation in the ‘War Against Terror’, these facts need to be made public.
Shahid ur Rehman reveals that 1989-90 was the first financial year during which debt repayment came first in the federal budget, getting ahead of defence and development (P.74). During the same year, three packages were negotiated with the IMF — all negotiated by unelected governments but implemented by elected governments. Since 1990, Pakistan is paying $39 million every year to encash one National Highway Authority bond worth $22 million and “nobody knows when, how and why these bonds were issued” (P.84). It would take $780 million for bonds having a face value of $440 million by 2010, which is not too far away. Now the debt incurred for building highways is not the same as the debt incurred for keeping the economy afloat in the initial stages. We must differentiate between the loans contracted before and after the Korean War, when the element of compulsion had receded.
Apart from the amounts of the loans contracted, the other aspect is that since information is not shared, there is no accountability. For example, Dr A.R. Kemal suspects that the government was reporting commercial debts repayment, but not the commercial debt contracted. A table provided by the author reveals that Pakistan to date has contracted $79 billion and repaid $70 million. They are shocking figures.
In conclusion, we are constrained to remark that such an important book should not have been produced in such a slipshod manner. We learn that what Ziaul Haq had staged was not a coup but a “coupe”. Similarly the back cover says that the premier had promised to come to the premier of the book.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Extract
Pakistan joined the World Bank on July 11, 1950, and the Auditor-General Yaqub Shah was appointed the first Pakistani representative to The World Bank.
A team of World Bank officials visited Pakistan in 1951 and offered $60 million for irrigation purposes, the rehabilitation of railways, extension of telecommunication and hydro projects.
Pakistan contracted the first loan in its history — $27 million from the World Bank for Pakistan Railways on February 22, 1952. But it was the first loan from the United States signed in December 1952 that changed the economic, security and political landscape for all times to come.
In 1951, India, hit by a famine sought two million tons of wheat from the United States leading to the Indian Emergency Flood Act signed by President Truman on June 19, 1951. It envisaged that a nearly $5 million interest would be used to bring Indian students, professors and technicians to the United States and for free ocean transportation of relief supplies to India given by individuals and private organisations.
In 1952, Pakistan was also hit by a food shortage earning the ‘gourmet’ Prime Minister Khwaja Nazim uddin the nickname of Quaid-i-Qilat (leader of shortages).
The government approached the United States for assistance, and negotiations which led to an agreement for the import of one million tons of wheat under a $15 million commercial loan provided by USEXIM. The agreement was signed at a ceremony in the White House on September 7, 1952, witnessed by President Truman. Ambassador Muhammad Ali Bogra signed on behalf of Pakistan.
Subsequent developments revealed that the shortage was artificial and as soon as imported wheat started reaching Pakistan, the hoarded wheat resurfaced. When 600,000 tons of wheat had arrived, the government asked the US to stop further shipments.
Using the food shortage as a pretext, Ghulam Mohammad sacked Prime Minister Nazim uddin on April 17, 1953. According to various accounts, Nazim uddin was held incommunicado, his telephone lines severed to prevent him from appealing to the Queen in whose name the governor-general was ruling Pakistan.
Nazim uddin is reported to have remarked in helplessness that when he was governor-general, the power lied with the prime minister, now that he was the prime minister, the governor-general was wielding the real power.
Mohammad Ali Bogra was imported from Washington to become the prime minister. He was the first rolling stone of Pakistani politics to rise meteorically by switching over parties and loyalties. When Pakistan was born, he supported Hussein Shaheed Suharwardy in the election of the leader of the house in the East Pakistan Legislative Assembly against Khwaja Nazim uddin.
Nazim uddin won. Bogra changed his allegiance to Nazim uddin and managed to secure the ambassadorship to the United States. Mehmood Ali, a veteran of the Pakistan Movement, said the following about Mohammad Ali Bogra.
“In the power struggle in Pakistan after the assassination of Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan and the illegal and unconstitutional dismissal of Khwaja Nazim uddin, Mohammad Ali Bogra changed over to the Ghulam Mohammad-Iskandar Mirza-Ayub Khan axis backed by a foreign power and succeeded in stealing the office of the prime minister of Pakistan.”
As ambassador to the United States, Bogra had signed the cherished deal for one million tons of wheat and was inducted as prime minister before it started arriving in Pakistan. The US wheat was transported from the port on camel carts with “Thank you America” hanging from the camels necks and its arrival was celebrated at a glittering ceremony in Karachi on July 3, 1953. It was the biggest ceremony ever in the history of the metropolis chaired by Prime Minister Bogra.
National debt is a serious subject which must be discussed in a sober rather than sensational manner, writes Dr Muhammad Reza Kazimi
Dawn: Books and Authors, May 20, 2007
Book Review: Pakistan: Sovereignty Lost
By Shahid ur Rehman
Shahid ur Rehman, a veteran journalist known for his economic and diplomatic reports, is correspondent for Kyodo News Agency of Japan. His other books include Who Owns Pakistan? and Long Road to Chagai
Pakistan is burdened with debt. This constricts its diplomatic and security options. There have been attempts by previous governments to liquidate the debt. Resumption of aid following Pakistan’s joining the ‘War Against Terror’ gave the impression that the debt burden had been greatly relieved. Shahid ur Rehman assures us that it has not. The Introduction of his book highlights his main contentions and it is here that he shifts the burden of guilt from economic to political decisions. It is an indictment of our country’s early leadership. Some of these observations are factual and correct but even here, the documentation is not adequate, which prevents his observations from acquiring context.
Shahid ur Rehman says that Pakistan first lost its sovereignty immediately after its independence, when the Quaid-i-Azam sought a $2 billion economic assistance from the United States (P.15). The background to this is that the US was the only country to send a delegation to attend the Independence celebrations of Pakistan, while the USSR was the only country not to congratulate Pakistan on its creation. The Indian government had withheld Pakistan’s share of its financial assets. The 17 per cent which was paid after Gandhi’s protests was barely sufficient to meet our initial expenditure.
In an investigative treatise, it is necessary to mention the primary cause of the events described. According to the author, Liaquat Ali Khan and Khwaja Nazim uddin renewed the request only two days after Liaquat’s assassination. It needed to be ascertained whether Liaquat’s signature was genuine, since this is an assertion which is at odds with other US documents. Liaquat’s meeting with the US envoy Avra Warren only four days before his assassination; had been contentious. Warren had asked for Pakistan to contribute towards Middle East defence. Liaquat made the contribution contingent on a Kashmir solution and not on $2 billion. In fact, Liaquat was broaching a joint defence with Iran and Egypt, against the western bloc.
Shahid ur Rehman tells us that in 1952, wheat imported from the US was transported on camel carts with “Thank you America” written on the signs hanging from the animals’ necks. This, by itself is correct, but here one is tempted to register a counter complaint:
“Not long ago, while one of the authors was in Pakistan, our economic mission delivered a shipment of American tractors. Within a few days, it was commonly accepted throughout the countryside that the tractors had been given by Russia” (A Factual Epilogue: The Ugly American, P.282)
Shahid ur Rehman in his Introduction blames Ayub Khan for the grant of the Badaber Base. Further on, he himself refers to the acrimonious correspondence between Ayub and Lyndon B. Johnson over its closure: “I give not a fig for Pakistan except as its interests are ours” (P.17). Earlier McConaughy wrote: “The fight to the finish would destroy Pakistan’s military capability, which is not in American interests” (British Papers, P.381). Every envoy is meant to consider the interest of his or her own country and not the country of accreditation. Clearly, McConaughy was answering the charge that he was being sympathetic to the country to which he was assigned.
Under the heading ‘Mystery of Liaquat’s visit to the US’ (P.30), Shahid ur Rehman persists in the face of overwhelming documentary evidence to the contrary, that Liaquat used USSR’s invitation to cadge an invitation from the US. But it is another fact that the USSR, after having extended the invitation, never set the dates. Before embarking for USA; on American soil and on his return, Liaquat reiterated that he had accepted Stalin’s invitation but he could only go when the dates were set.
But before rendering judgments, one must keep in sight, that even now, the India-US Nuclear Treaty and Russia’s supply of five nuclear reactors to India are proceeding simultaneously. It is naïve to think that the same conditions that apply to India would also apply to Pakistan, which brings us back to the advantages accruing to India, and the disadvantages accruing to Pakistan at the time of its creation. To blame the founding fathers instead of recognising the predicament in which the new country found itself, is quite a distortion.
National debt is a serious subject which must be discussed in a sober rather than sensational manner. It was found necessary because, when the author comes to his subject, he is on firm ground. In a situation when the people of Pakistan are kept from knowing the extent of their debt, when the loan is staggering despite the respite granted to Pakistan for its cooperation in the ‘War Against Terror’, these facts need to be made public.
Shahid ur Rehman reveals that 1989-90 was the first financial year during which debt repayment came first in the federal budget, getting ahead of defence and development (P.74). During the same year, three packages were negotiated with the IMF — all negotiated by unelected governments but implemented by elected governments. Since 1990, Pakistan is paying $39 million every year to encash one National Highway Authority bond worth $22 million and “nobody knows when, how and why these bonds were issued” (P.84). It would take $780 million for bonds having a face value of $440 million by 2010, which is not too far away. Now the debt incurred for building highways is not the same as the debt incurred for keeping the economy afloat in the initial stages. We must differentiate between the loans contracted before and after the Korean War, when the element of compulsion had receded.
Apart from the amounts of the loans contracted, the other aspect is that since information is not shared, there is no accountability. For example, Dr A.R. Kemal suspects that the government was reporting commercial debts repayment, but not the commercial debt contracted. A table provided by the author reveals that Pakistan to date has contracted $79 billion and repaid $70 million. They are shocking figures.
In conclusion, we are constrained to remark that such an important book should not have been produced in such a slipshod manner. We learn that what Ziaul Haq had staged was not a coup but a “coupe”. Similarly the back cover says that the premier had promised to come to the premier of the book.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Extract
Pakistan joined the World Bank on July 11, 1950, and the Auditor-General Yaqub Shah was appointed the first Pakistani representative to The World Bank.
A team of World Bank officials visited Pakistan in 1951 and offered $60 million for irrigation purposes, the rehabilitation of railways, extension of telecommunication and hydro projects.
Pakistan contracted the first loan in its history — $27 million from the World Bank for Pakistan Railways on February 22, 1952. But it was the first loan from the United States signed in December 1952 that changed the economic, security and political landscape for all times to come.
In 1951, India, hit by a famine sought two million tons of wheat from the United States leading to the Indian Emergency Flood Act signed by President Truman on June 19, 1951. It envisaged that a nearly $5 million interest would be used to bring Indian students, professors and technicians to the United States and for free ocean transportation of relief supplies to India given by individuals and private organisations.
In 1952, Pakistan was also hit by a food shortage earning the ‘gourmet’ Prime Minister Khwaja Nazim uddin the nickname of Quaid-i-Qilat (leader of shortages).
The government approached the United States for assistance, and negotiations which led to an agreement for the import of one million tons of wheat under a $15 million commercial loan provided by USEXIM. The agreement was signed at a ceremony in the White House on September 7, 1952, witnessed by President Truman. Ambassador Muhammad Ali Bogra signed on behalf of Pakistan.
Subsequent developments revealed that the shortage was artificial and as soon as imported wheat started reaching Pakistan, the hoarded wheat resurfaced. When 600,000 tons of wheat had arrived, the government asked the US to stop further shipments.
Using the food shortage as a pretext, Ghulam Mohammad sacked Prime Minister Nazim uddin on April 17, 1953. According to various accounts, Nazim uddin was held incommunicado, his telephone lines severed to prevent him from appealing to the Queen in whose name the governor-general was ruling Pakistan.
Nazim uddin is reported to have remarked in helplessness that when he was governor-general, the power lied with the prime minister, now that he was the prime minister, the governor-general was wielding the real power.
Mohammad Ali Bogra was imported from Washington to become the prime minister. He was the first rolling stone of Pakistani politics to rise meteorically by switching over parties and loyalties. When Pakistan was born, he supported Hussein Shaheed Suharwardy in the election of the leader of the house in the East Pakistan Legislative Assembly against Khwaja Nazim uddin.
Nazim uddin won. Bogra changed his allegiance to Nazim uddin and managed to secure the ambassadorship to the United States. Mehmood Ali, a veteran of the Pakistan Movement, said the following about Mohammad Ali Bogra.
“In the power struggle in Pakistan after the assassination of Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan and the illegal and unconstitutional dismissal of Khwaja Nazim uddin, Mohammad Ali Bogra changed over to the Ghulam Mohammad-Iskandar Mirza-Ayub Khan axis backed by a foreign power and succeeded in stealing the office of the prime minister of Pakistan.”
As ambassador to the United States, Bogra had signed the cherished deal for one million tons of wheat and was inducted as prime minister before it started arriving in Pakistan. The US wheat was transported from the port on camel carts with “Thank you America” hanging from the camels necks and its arrival was celebrated at a glittering ceremony in Karachi on July 3, 1953. It was the biggest ceremony ever in the history of the metropolis chaired by Prime Minister Bogra.
Geopolitics and oil supply disruption: Is India prepared?
Written by
Bhamy V. Shenoy
What do we do when crude price touches $250 a barrel? Even with high foreign exchange reserves, India will have a very hard time to absorb such a high price. We could dismiss this as Doom's Day scare mongering at our peril. But then a study done last year by one of the international banks projects such three-figure oil price-line as bottom line case scenario, given the volatile potential for oil supply situation; given the potential for Iran-US confrontation getting a lot worse before it gets better.
During the last week of March, the international crude market became jittery in view of fears of possible attack on Iran either by the US or Israel. Within hours of such informed speculation gaining currency crude price shot up by as much as $5 per barrel. There were concerns that Iranian export of 2.3 million barrels per day itself may be lost, which is more than the spare capacity available now.
There were speculations of the Strait of Hormuz being closed by Iran or made inoperable. This would shut down the export of Middle East crude supply of about 15.5 million bd. That accounts for two-fifths of the world's crude oil traded by tanker, and about one-fifth of total oil production according to Energy Information Agency of the USA.
Crude price is a gamble in the combative global politics over the Middle-East issue. Point is whether we in India have it in us to cope with shocks and disruption on the oil supply front. Does India have a credible energy security strategy?
Planning Commission in their Integrated Energy Policy document released last year defined the imperatives of energy security. It said, "We are energy secure when we can supply lifeline energy to all our citizens irrespective of their ability to pay for it as well as meet their effective demand for safe and convenient energy to satisfy their various needs at competitive prices, at all times and with a prescribed confidence level considering shocks and disruptions that can be reasonably expected." This is the best definition I have come across. But our political class has done very little to implement it.
There are two aspects of energy security - 1) long term measures such as reducing demand for energy and increasing strategic supplies in all possible ways; and 2) oil reserves to deal with sudden scarcity whenever it occurs. My focus here is on the second aspect, our preparedness to be able maintain energy supply during times of shocks and disruptions.
More than the price shock there could be a devastating possibility of non-availability of fuel to run our industries; to move goods and people and, to keep the kitchen stove burning in the multitude of middle class, and more of our urban poor households that are totally dependent on LPG or kerosene...
The last three major oil shocks affected India in terms of sudden price increases. Impact on petroleum supplies was minimal. But a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz or any such disastrous development would definitely hurt where it hits the common man. India has been planning, for many years, to have strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) like most of the developed countries. They hold adequate crude stocks to cover their domestic requirements for 90 days or more.
Our experts who drafted Integrated Energy Policy Report reckon there is 'no proven justification' to maintain such costly strategic storage level. Their recommendation was to hold stocks to last for no more than 30 days. In my view such a policy is based on wrong premise and should be revisited. It is true that unlike major economies like the US and EU, which may be able to influence the pricing through the use of SPR, India may not be in a position to have an impact.
Tragedy is, even a modest goal of holding 30-day stocks is far from being realised. Only very recently a decision has been taken to construct SPR of 5 tonnes in Mangalore and Visakhapatnam and, that too, by a distant 2015. The total cost estimate is Rs.12,500 crores (Rs.125 billion). The planned SPR represents just 15 days of the nation's fuel requirements.
It is important that LPG and kerosene is made available in different parts of India at times of oil supply disruption. It is possible to put up with the shortage of petrol and diesel for some time, with some inconvenience. But it is impossible to do without LPG or kerosene. We may not take out our cars, and take to biking or walking, instead, but can we go without food? If we fail in proper management of shortages, we may well have to face outbreak of kerosene riots in the country. We need a world-class information system that will give inventory statistics on petroleum products. It is time the government put in place a strategic oil- planning group to draw up a contingency plan to meet the possible shortages of LPG and kerosene in India.
IANS
Bhamy V. Shenoy
What do we do when crude price touches $250 a barrel? Even with high foreign exchange reserves, India will have a very hard time to absorb such a high price. We could dismiss this as Doom's Day scare mongering at our peril. But then a study done last year by one of the international banks projects such three-figure oil price-line as bottom line case scenario, given the volatile potential for oil supply situation; given the potential for Iran-US confrontation getting a lot worse before it gets better.
During the last week of March, the international crude market became jittery in view of fears of possible attack on Iran either by the US or Israel. Within hours of such informed speculation gaining currency crude price shot up by as much as $5 per barrel. There were concerns that Iranian export of 2.3 million barrels per day itself may be lost, which is more than the spare capacity available now.
There were speculations of the Strait of Hormuz being closed by Iran or made inoperable. This would shut down the export of Middle East crude supply of about 15.5 million bd. That accounts for two-fifths of the world's crude oil traded by tanker, and about one-fifth of total oil production according to Energy Information Agency of the USA.
Crude price is a gamble in the combative global politics over the Middle-East issue. Point is whether we in India have it in us to cope with shocks and disruption on the oil supply front. Does India have a credible energy security strategy?
Planning Commission in their Integrated Energy Policy document released last year defined the imperatives of energy security. It said, "We are energy secure when we can supply lifeline energy to all our citizens irrespective of their ability to pay for it as well as meet their effective demand for safe and convenient energy to satisfy their various needs at competitive prices, at all times and with a prescribed confidence level considering shocks and disruptions that can be reasonably expected." This is the best definition I have come across. But our political class has done very little to implement it.
There are two aspects of energy security - 1) long term measures such as reducing demand for energy and increasing strategic supplies in all possible ways; and 2) oil reserves to deal with sudden scarcity whenever it occurs. My focus here is on the second aspect, our preparedness to be able maintain energy supply during times of shocks and disruptions.
More than the price shock there could be a devastating possibility of non-availability of fuel to run our industries; to move goods and people and, to keep the kitchen stove burning in the multitude of middle class, and more of our urban poor households that are totally dependent on LPG or kerosene...
The last three major oil shocks affected India in terms of sudden price increases. Impact on petroleum supplies was minimal. But a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz or any such disastrous development would definitely hurt where it hits the common man. India has been planning, for many years, to have strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) like most of the developed countries. They hold adequate crude stocks to cover their domestic requirements for 90 days or more.
Our experts who drafted Integrated Energy Policy Report reckon there is 'no proven justification' to maintain such costly strategic storage level. Their recommendation was to hold stocks to last for no more than 30 days. In my view such a policy is based on wrong premise and should be revisited. It is true that unlike major economies like the US and EU, which may be able to influence the pricing through the use of SPR, India may not be in a position to have an impact.
Tragedy is, even a modest goal of holding 30-day stocks is far from being realised. Only very recently a decision has been taken to construct SPR of 5 tonnes in Mangalore and Visakhapatnam and, that too, by a distant 2015. The total cost estimate is Rs.12,500 crores (Rs.125 billion). The planned SPR represents just 15 days of the nation's fuel requirements.
It is important that LPG and kerosene is made available in different parts of India at times of oil supply disruption. It is possible to put up with the shortage of petrol and diesel for some time, with some inconvenience. But it is impossible to do without LPG or kerosene. We may not take out our cars, and take to biking or walking, instead, but can we go without food? If we fail in proper management of shortages, we may well have to face outbreak of kerosene riots in the country. We need a world-class information system that will give inventory statistics on petroleum products. It is time the government put in place a strategic oil- planning group to draw up a contingency plan to meet the possible shortages of LPG and kerosene in India.
IANS
India and West Africa:A Burgeoning Relationship
Sushant K. Singh
• India's involvement in West Africa is expanding beyond its traditional Commonwealth
partners. Although Nigeria is India's largest trading partner (worth $3 billion in trade – mostly oil), Indian investment in Côte d'Ivoire will grow to $1 billion during the period 2006–11 – 10% of what Indian companies have invested abroad in the last decade.
• India faces fierce competition from the West and other Asian countries to secure West African resources. India's quest for energy in West Africa is not a core component of the government's energy security policy; rather, it is part of its bid to diversify energy sources. India is prepared to offer package deals offering infrastructural investments in addition to cash bonus payments on signature of contracts. There has also been controversy in Liberia over a $900 million deal to mine ore with Mittal, whose contract allowed the company to opt out of national human rights and environmental laws. The contract is currently being reviewed by the Liberian Senate.
• Indian companies are not blindly entering into business relationships in West Africa. The Indian Cabinet’s Committee on Economic Affairs prevented a planned $2 billion deal in late 2005 at the last moment because of due diligence concerns. A Nigerian licensing round for 45 oil blocks was announced on 3 April 2007. India’s ONGC-Mittal is likely to be offered rights of first refusal for additional blocks but has insisted that some of these have proven reserves. However, they seem to be less tough than their Chinese and South Korean rivals on specifics about the infrastructure packages offered in exchange. The winners are announced on 3 May 2007.
• Beyond oil and infrastructure development, India is well placed as a soft power to
enhance the relationship in the future. The mechanics of India's democracy in a postcolonial setting may provide relevant lessons. Moreover, India can offer West Africa important insights into agricultural expansion, clean water management and how to confront the growing threat of climate transformation.
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• India's involvement in West Africa is expanding beyond its traditional Commonwealth
partners. Although Nigeria is India's largest trading partner (worth $3 billion in trade – mostly oil), Indian investment in Côte d'Ivoire will grow to $1 billion during the period 2006–11 – 10% of what Indian companies have invested abroad in the last decade.
• India faces fierce competition from the West and other Asian countries to secure West African resources. India's quest for energy in West Africa is not a core component of the government's energy security policy; rather, it is part of its bid to diversify energy sources. India is prepared to offer package deals offering infrastructural investments in addition to cash bonus payments on signature of contracts. There has also been controversy in Liberia over a $900 million deal to mine ore with Mittal, whose contract allowed the company to opt out of national human rights and environmental laws. The contract is currently being reviewed by the Liberian Senate.
• Indian companies are not blindly entering into business relationships in West Africa. The Indian Cabinet’s Committee on Economic Affairs prevented a planned $2 billion deal in late 2005 at the last moment because of due diligence concerns. A Nigerian licensing round for 45 oil blocks was announced on 3 April 2007. India’s ONGC-Mittal is likely to be offered rights of first refusal for additional blocks but has insisted that some of these have proven reserves. However, they seem to be less tough than their Chinese and South Korean rivals on specifics about the infrastructure packages offered in exchange. The winners are announced on 3 May 2007.
• Beyond oil and infrastructure development, India is well placed as a soft power to
enhance the relationship in the future. The mechanics of India's democracy in a postcolonial setting may provide relevant lessons. Moreover, India can offer West Africa important insights into agricultural expansion, clean water management and how to confront the growing threat of climate transformation.
DOWNLOAD THE REPORT
The Shape of a Shadowy Air War in Iraq
Nick Turse, TomDispatch, 25 May 2007
Did the U.S. military use cluster bombs in Iraq in 2006 and then lie about it? Does the U.S. military keep the numbers of rockets and cannon rounds fired from its planes and helicopters secret because more Iraqi civilians have died due to their use than any other type of weaponry?
These are just two of the many unanswered questions related to the largely uncovered air war the U.S. military has been waging in Iraq.
What we do know is this: Since the major combat phase of the war ended in April 2003, the U.S. military has dropped at least 59,787 pounds of air-delivered cluster bombs in Iraq -- the very type of weapon that Marc Garlasco, the senior military analyst at Human Rights Watch (HRW) calls, "the single greatest risk civilians face with regard to a current weapon that is in use." We also know that, according to expert opinion, rockets and cannon fire from U.S. aircraft may account for most U.S. and coalition-attributed Iraqi civilian deaths and that the Pentagon has restocked hundreds of millions of dollars worth of these weapons in recent years.
Unfortunately, thanks to an utter lack of coverage by the mainstream media, what we don't know about the air war in Iraq so far outweighs what we do know that anything but the most minimal picture of the nature of destruction from the air in that country simply can't be painted. Instead, think of the story of U.S. air power in Iraq as a series of tiny splashes of lurid color on a largely blank canvas.
Cluster Bombs
Even among the least covered aspects of the air war in Iraq, the question of cluster-bomb (CBU) use remains especially shadowy. This is hardly surprising. After all, at a time when many nations are moving toward banning the use of cluster munitions -- at a February 2007 conference in Oslo, Norway, 46 of 48 governments represented supported a declaration for a new international treaty and ban on the weapons by 2008 -- the U.S. stands with China, Israel, Pakistan, and Russia in opposing new limits of any kind.
Little wonder. The U.S. military has a staggering arsenal of these weapons. According to a recent Human Rights Watch report, the Army holds 88% of the Pentagon's CBU inventory -- at least 638.3 million of the cluster bomblets that are stored inside each cluster munition; the Air Force and Navy, according to Department of Defense figures, have 22.2 million and 14.7 million of the bomblets, respectively. And even these numbers are considered undercounts by experts.
A cluster bomb bursts above the ground, releasing hundreds of smaller, deadly submunitions or "bomblets" that increase the weapon's kill radius causing, as Garlasco puts it, "indiscriminate effects." It's a weapon, he notes, that "cannot distinguish between a civilian and a soldier when employed because of its wide coverage area. If you're dropping the weapon and you blow your target up you're also hitting everything within a football field. So to use it in proximity to civilians is inviting a violation of the laws of armed conflict."
Worse yet, U.S. cluster munitions have a high failure rate. A sizeable number of dud bomblets fall to the ground and become de facto landmines which, Garlasco points out, are "already banned by most nations on this planet." Garlasco adds: "I don't see how any use of the current U.S. cluster bomb arsenal in proximity to civilian objects can be defended in any way as being legal or legitimate."
In an email message earlier this year, a U.S. Central Command Air Forces (CENTAF) spokesman told this reporter that "there were no instances" of CBU usage in Iraq in 2006. But military documents suggest this might not be the case.
Last year, Titus Peachey of the Mennonite Central Committee -- an organization that has studied the use of cluster munitions for more than 30 years -- filed a Freedom of Information Act request concerning the U.S. military's use of cluster bombs in Iraq since "major combat operations" officially ended in that country. In their response, the Air Force confirmed that 63 CBU-87 cluster bombs were dropped in Iraq between May 1, 2003 and August 1, 2006. A CENTAF spokesman contacted for confirmation that none of these were dropped on or after January 1, 2006, offered no response. His superior officer, Lt. Col. Johnn Kennedy, the Deputy Director of CENTAF Public Affairs, similarly ignored this reporter's requests for clarification.
These 12,726 BLU-97 bomblets -- each CBU-87 contains 202 BLU-97s or "Combined Effects Bombs" (CEBs) which have anti-personnel, anti-tank, and incendiary capabilities or "kill mechanisms" -- dropped since May 2003 are, according to statistics provided by Human Rights Watch, in addition to almost two million cluster submunitions used by coalition forces in Iraq in March and April 2003.
Asked about CBU usage by the Air Force in Iraq in 2006, Ali al-Fadhily, an independent Iraqi journalist, commented: "The use of cluster bombs is a sure thing, but it was very difficult to prove because there were no international experts to document it." In the past, however, international experts have actually had a chance to examine some locations where a fraction of the bomblets that coalition forces used have landed.
On a 2004 research trip to Iraq, for instance, Titus Peachey visited numerous sites which had experienced such strikes. At a farm in northern Iraq, he was shown not only impact craters from exploded bomblets on a farmer's property but also unexploded bomblets, by a team from the Mines Advisory Group, a humanitarian organization devoted to landmine and bomb clearance. While "the de-miners expressed frustration that the farmer had planted his field before it had been cleared," Peachey explained that this was a common, if dangerous, practice in such situations. The U.S. used similar ordnance in Laos during the Vietnam War, he pointed out, noting:
"The villagers of Laos waited more than 20 years for clearance work to get started in their fields and villages. During that time they had no choice but to till soil that was filled with bombs. Otherwise they could not eat. In Iraq, the several visits that we made confirmed this very same dynamic. People could not afford to wait until clearance teams made their farms safe for cultivation. They had to take great risks in order to survive."
Evidence of these risks can be found in U.S. military documents. Case in point: a June 2005 internal memorandum from the U.S. Army's 42d Infantry Division which describes how a 15-year old Iraqi boy, working as a shepherd, "was leading the sheep through north Tikrit, near an ammo storage site, when he picked up a UXO [unexploded ordnance] from a cluster bomb. The UXO detonated and he was killed." Asked to pay $3,000 in compensation for the boy's life, the Army granted that his death was "a horrible loss for the claimant," his mother, but concluded that there was "insufficient evidence to indicate that US. Forces caused the death."
Iraqi documents also chronicle the effects of air-delivered cluster munitions. Take a September 2006 report by the Conservation Center of Environment & Reserves, an Iraqi non-governmental organization (NGO), examining alleged violations of the laws of war by U.S. forces during the April 2004 siege of Fallujah. According to its partial list of civilian deaths, at least 53 people were killed by air-launched cluster bombs in the city that April. An analysis of data collected by another Iraqi NGO, the Iraqi Health and Social Care Organization, showed that, between March and June 2006, of 193 war-injured casualties analyzed, 148 (77%) were the result of cluster munitions of unspecified type.
Air War, Iraq: 2006
While cluster bombs remain a point of contention, Air Force officials do acknowledge that U.S. military and coalition aircraft dropped at least 111,000 pounds of other types of bombs on targets in Iraq in 2006. This figure -- 177 bombs in all -- does not include guided missiles or unguided rockets fired, or cannon rounds expended; nor, according to a CENTAF spokesman, does it take into account the munitions used by some Marine Corps and other coalition fixed-wing aircraft or any Army or Marine Corps helicopter gunships; nor does it include munitions used by the armed helicopters of the many private security contractors flying their own missions in Iraq.
In statistics provided to me, CENTAF reported a total of 10,519 "close air support missions" in Iraq in 2006, during which its aircraft dropped those 177 bombs and fired 52 "Hellfire/Maverick missiles." The Guided Bomb Unit-12, a laser-guided bomb with a 500-pound general purpose warhead -- 95 of which were reportedly dropped in 2006 -- was the most frequently used bomb in Iraq last year, according to CENTAF. In addition, 67 satellite-guided, 500-pound GBU-38s and 15 2,000-pound GBU-31/32 munitions were also dropped on Iraqi targets in 2006, according to official U.S. figures. There is no independent way, however, to confirm the accuracy of this official count.
Rockets
Rockets, like the 2.75-inch Hydra-70 rocket which can be outfitted with various warheads and fired from either fixed-wing aircraft or most military helicopters, are conspicuously absent from the totals -- so as not to "skew the tally and present an inaccurate picture of the air campaign," said a CENTAF spokesman mysteriously. If released, these figures might, however, prove impressive indeed. According to a 2005 press release issued by Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT), who helped secure a five-year, $900 million Hydra contract from the Army for General Dynamics, "the widely used Hydra-70 rocket… has seen extensive use in Afghanistan and Iraq… [and] has become the world's most widely used helicopter-launched weapon system." By this April, $502 million in orders for the Hydra-70 had been placed by the Army since the contract was awarded.
Cannon Rounds
The number of cannon rounds -- essentially large caliber "bullets"-- fired by CENTAF aircraft is also a closely guarded secret. The official reason given is that "special forces often use aircraft such as the AC-130" gunships, which fire cannon rounds, and "their missions and operations are classified, so therefore these figures are not released." However, an idea of the number of cannon rounds expended by CENTAF aircraft can be gleaned from a description of a single operation on January 28, 2007 when U.S. F-16s and A-10 Thunderbolts not only "dropped more than 3.5 tons of precision munitions," but also fired "1,200 rounds of 20mm and 1,100 rounds of 30mm cannon fire" in a five square mile area near the southern city of Najaf.
A sense of usage levels can also be gathered from a consideration of contracts awarded in recent years. Take the 20mm PGU-28 ammunition used by helicopters like the AH-1 Cobra and fixed-wing aircraft like the F-16. In 2001, the Department of Defense noted that it held approximately eight million PGU-28/B rounds in its inventory. In May 2003, the Army took steps to increase that arsenal by modifying an existing contract with General Dynamics to add 980,064 rounds of 20mm ammunition to 1.3 million rounds already delivered since December 2001.
In February 2004, General Dynamics was awarded an almost $11 million add-on to an already existing contract for an extra 427,000 cannon rounds for the AH-1 Cobra helicopter. In September 2006, General Dynamics was awarded a similar nearly $14 million add-on for yet more 20mm ammunition; and, in April 2007, $22 million for more of the same. That same month, the U.S. Army Sustainment Command issued a "sources sought notice," looking for more arms manufacturers willing to produce six million or more rounds of such ordnance with promises of an "estimated 400% option over 5 years."
Yet, repeated inquiries about cannon rounds fired in Iraq prompted a CENTAF spokesman to emphatically state in an email: "WE DO NOT REPORT CANNON ROUNDS." Lt. Col. Johnn Kennedy followed up, noting, "Glad to see you appreciate the tremendous efforts [my subordinate] has already expended on you. Trust me, it's probably much more significant than the relentless pursuit of the number of cannon rounds."
But the number of cannon rounds and rockets fired by U.S. aircraft is hardly an insignificant matter. According to Les Roberts, co-author of two surveys of mortality in Iraq published in the British medical journal, The Lancet, "Rocket and cannon fire could account for most coalition-attributed civilian deaths." He adds, "I find it disturbing that they will not release this [figure], but even more disturbing that they have not released such information to Congressmen who have requested it."
In 2004, Roberts himself witnessed the destruction caused by cannon fire in Baghdad's vast Shiite slum, Sadr City. He recalls again and again passing through 100-200 meter-wide areas of neighborhoods that had been raked by cannon rounds. "It wasn't one house that was beat up," he recalled. "It would be five, six, seven buildings in a row." Unlike bomb- and artillery-ravaged Ramadi and Fallujah, Roberts noted:
"There weren't whole buildings knocked down. There were just big swaths of many, many houses where every window was broken, where there were thousands of pockmarks from cannon fire; not little dents, but huge chunks the size of your fist out of the walls, and lamp-posts bent over because they lost their integrity from being hit so many times."
This portrait of devastation is echoed in the words of journalist Ali al-Fadhily, who told me that he had witnessed helicopter gunships in action, noting: "The destruction they caused was always immense and casualties so many. They simply destroy the target with every living soul inside. The smell of death comes with those machines."
While the destructive capacity of helicopter gunships has been well-documented and we have indications of the levels of ammunition available to the military, the actual scale of use is hard to pin down. Flight hours are, however, another indication. According to James Glantz of the New York Times, Army helicopters logged 240,000 flight hours in Iraq in 2005, 334,000 in 2006, and projections for 2007 suggest that the figure will reach 400,000. (And these numbers don't even include Marine Corps squadrons, heliborne missions by private security contractors, or those of the nascent Iraqi Air Force.)
Top Secret Information
While military press information officers continue to stonewall on the number of cannon rounds fired by helicopters ("We cannot comment on your inquiry due to operational security"), earlier this year Col. Robert A. Fitzgerald, the Marine Corps' head of aviation plans and policy, was quoted in National Defense Magazine on the subject. He claimed that, in 2006, "Marine rotary-wing aircraft flew more than 60,000 combat flight hours, and fixed-wing platforms completed 31,000. They dropped 80 tons of bombs and fired 80 missiles, 3,532 rockets and more than 2 million rounds of smaller ammunition." (When asked if Col. Fitzgerald's admission endangered "operational security," a military spokesman responded, "I cannot comment on the policies or release authority of a Marine colonel.")
While Col. Fitzgerald's statistics presumably also include operations in Afghanistan (where we know U.S. air power has been called upon ever more heavily), they do remind us that the minimalist figures regularly given out by CENTAF hardly offer an accurate picture of the air war in Iraq. When combined with the military's evasive non-answers, they are also a reminder of what a dearth of information is actually available on even seemingly innocuous matters relating to the air war in Iraq.
For example, from January through April, I posed questions to a Coalition Press Information Center media contact -- one "SSG Wiley." After being rebuffed on the topic of munitions expenditure, I asked, in January, about the total number of "rotary-wing sorties" flown in 2006. The aptly-named Wiley responded that s/he "sent it out to the relevant directorates and [was] awaiting a response.... I will contact you as soon as I get something." That turned out, despite follow-up, to be never. Following a March 30th query regarding "the relevant directorates," s/he entreated me, by email, to drop my request for information. Facing the reportorial void, I asked if Wiley would at least provide his/her full name and title for attribution in this article. S/he has yet to respond.
The New Iraqi Air Force
Another little-talked about aspect of the air war is the modest emergence of a new Iraqi Air Force (IAF). Until the first Gulf War, the Iraqi military had a large air contingent, including hundreds of modern Russian and French combat aircraft. Today, apparently owing to U.S. reluctance to put powerful modern weaponry of any sort in Iraqi hands, the reconstituted IAF is a distinctly less impressive force. Instead of advanced fighters and bombers, they fly SAMA CH-2000 two-seat, single-engine prop airplanes, SB7L-360 Seeker reconnaissance aircraft, a handful of C-130 Hercules turbo-prop cargo planes, and Bell 206 Ranger, UH-1HP "Huey" and Russian Mi-17 helicopters based out of military installations in Baghdad, Basra, Kirkuk, and Taji.
Recently returning from a fact-finding mission in Iraq, undertaken in his capacity as an adjunct professor at the United States Military Academy at West Point, retired U.S. Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey called for sending more aircraft, including 150 helicopters, to the Iraqi security forces. In fact, the IAF recently did take delivery of newly refurbished helicopters at Taji Air Base, is scheduled to receive new aircraft at Kirkuk, and has contracted to add 28 new Mi-17 helicopters in the near future.
The IAF may even be conducting full-scale air strikes of its own sometime soon. As of April 1, 2007, five Iraqi Bell 206 Ranger pilots from its 12th Squadron had already logged more than 188 combat hours. In a recent Air Force Times article, Capt. Shane Werley, the chief American advisor to the IAF's 2d Squadron, asserted that pilots he was working with would, at an unspecified date, "be taking missions from the [Army's] 1st Cavalry [Division at Taji]…. The bottom line is we're getting these guys back in the fight."
The Scale of the Carnage
Just a few dogged reporters assigned to the air-power beat might, at least, have offered some sense of the human fall-out of this largely one-sided air war. Since this has not been the case, we must rely on the best available evidence. One valuable source is the national cross-sectional cluster sample survey of mortality in Iraq since the 2003 invasion, published last year in The Lancet which used well-established survey methods that have been proven accurate in conflict zones from Kosovo to the Congo. (Interviewers actually inspected death certificates in an overwhelming majority of the Iraqi households surveyed.)
Carried out by epidemiologists at Johns Hopkins University's Bloomberg School of Public Health and Iraqi physicians organized through Mustansiriya University in Baghdad, it estimated 655,000 "excess Iraqi deaths as a consequence of the war." The study also found that, from March 2003 through June 2006, 13% of violent deaths in Iraq were caused by coalition air strikes. If the 655,000 figure, including over 601,000 violent deaths, is accurate, this would equal approximately 78,133 Iraqis killed by bombs, missiles, rockets, or cannon rounds up to last June.
There are also indications that the air war has taken an especially grievous toll on Iraqi children. Figures provided by The Lancet study's authors suggest that 50% of all violent deaths of Iraqi children under 15 years of age in that same period were due to coalition air strikes. These findings are echoed by Conservation Center of Environment & Reserves' statistics, indicating that no fewer of 25 of the 59 Iraqis on their partial list of those killed by air strikes during the April 2004 siege of Fallujah were children.
The Iraq Body Count Project (IBC), a group of researchers based in the United Kingdom who maintain a public database of Iraqi civilian deaths resulting from the war, carefully restricts itself to media-documented reports of civilian fatalities. While its figures are consequently much lower than The Lancet's -- currently, its tally range stands at: 64,133-70,243 -- an analysis of its media-limited data offers a glimpse of the human costs of the air war.
Statistics provided by the Iraq Body Count Project show that from 2003-2006, coalition air strikes, according to media sources alone (which, as we know, have covered the air war poorly), killed 3,615-4,083 people and left another 11,956-12,962 wounded. Last year, media reports listed between 169-200 Iraqis killed and 111-112 injured in 28 separate coalition air strikes, according to the IBC project. These numbers also appear to be on the rise. John Sloboda, the project's spokesperson and co-founder notes by email that, during 2006, the "vast majority" of lethal air strikes took place during the latter half of the year.
Asked about the assertion that the second half of 2006 was deadlier for Iraqis, due to U.S. air strikes, and the possible reasons for this, Lt. Col. Kennedy waxed eloquent: "War, by its very nature, has ebbs and flows, and we constantly review the application of airpower to best support the forces on the ground in theater. We view this as simply part of our contract to the warfighters. As we do not discuss operational aspects of missions, I'll decline further comment." But recently, Air Force Chief of Staff T. Michael Moseley did admit that he had "anecdotal evidence" suggesting "airpower is the most lethal of the components in wrapping up bad guys." He continued, "As far as numbers of people killed, as far as wrapping up bad guys and as far as delivering a kinetic effect, the air component -- which also includes Marine and Navy air, by the way -- is the most lethal of the components."
According to IBC's figures, during the first three months of 2007, U.S. air attacks had already killed more than half as many civilians as had died in all air strikes last year -- some 95-107 deaths; and publicly available CENTAF statistics indeed do show a surge in close air-support missions in 2007. For example, between March 24 and March 30, 2006, CENTAF reported 366 close air support missions. In 2007, the number for the same dates skyrocketed to 437 -- an almost 20% jump.
The Secret of Why the Air War Is So Secret
Unfortunately, media reports on the air war are so sparse, with reporting confined largely to reprinting U.S. military handouts and announcements of air strikes, that much of the air war in Iraq remains unknown -- although the very fact of an occupying power regularly conducting air strikes in and near population centers should have raised a question or two. Echoing Ali al-Fadhily's comments about the dearth of international observers in Iraq, Garlasco of Human Rights Watch notes, "Because of the lack of security we've had no one on the ground for three years now, and so we have no way of knowing what's going on there." He adds, "It's a huge hole in all the human rights organizations' reporting."
But human rights organizations and other NGOs are just part of the story. Since the Bush administration's invasion, the American air war has been given remarkably short shrift in the media. Back in December 2004, Tom Engelhardt, writing at Tomdispatch, called attention to this glaring absence. Seymour Hersh's seminal piece on air power, "Up in the Air," published in the New Yorker in late 2005, briefly ushered in some mainstream attention to the subject. And articles by Dahr Jamail, an independent journalist who covered the American occupation of Iraq, before and after the Hersh piece, are among the smattering of pieces that have offered glimpses of the air campaign and its impact. To date, however, the mainstream media has not, to use the words of Lt. Col. Kennedy, engaged in a "relentless pursuit of the number of cannon rounds" fired -- or any other aspect of the air war or its consequences for Iraqis.
Les Roberts especially laments just "how profoundly the press has failed us" when it comes to coverage of the war. "In the first couple of years of the war," he says, "our survey data suggest that there were more deaths from bombs dropped by our planes than there were deaths from roadside explosives and car bombs [detonated by insurgents]." The only group on the ground systematically collecting violent death data at the time, the NGO Coordinating Committee for Iraq, he notes, found the same thing. "If you had been reading the U.S. papers and watching the U.S. television news at the time," Roberts adds, "you would have gotten the impression that anti-coalition bombs were more numerous. That was not just wrong, it probably was wrong by a factor of ten!"
With the military unwilling to tell the truth – or say anything at all, in most cases-- and unable to provide the stability necessary for NGOs to operate, it falls to the mainstream media, even at this late stage of the conflict, to begin ferreting out substantive information on the air war. It seems, however, that until reporters begin bypassing official U.S. military pronouncements and locating Iraqi sources, we will remain largely in the dark with little knowledge of what can only be described as the secret U.S. air war in Iraq.
Nick Turse is the associate editor and research director of Tomdispatch.com. He has written for the Los Angeles Times, the San Francisco Chronicle, the Nation, the Village Voice, and regularly for Tomdispatch. A shorter version of this piece appears in this week's Nation Magazine.
Copyright 2007 Nick Turse
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Did the U.S. military use cluster bombs in Iraq in 2006 and then lie about it? Does the U.S. military keep the numbers of rockets and cannon rounds fired from its planes and helicopters secret because more Iraqi civilians have died due to their use than any other type of weaponry?
These are just two of the many unanswered questions related to the largely uncovered air war the U.S. military has been waging in Iraq.
What we do know is this: Since the major combat phase of the war ended in April 2003, the U.S. military has dropped at least 59,787 pounds of air-delivered cluster bombs in Iraq -- the very type of weapon that Marc Garlasco, the senior military analyst at Human Rights Watch (HRW) calls, "the single greatest risk civilians face with regard to a current weapon that is in use." We also know that, according to expert opinion, rockets and cannon fire from U.S. aircraft may account for most U.S. and coalition-attributed Iraqi civilian deaths and that the Pentagon has restocked hundreds of millions of dollars worth of these weapons in recent years.
Unfortunately, thanks to an utter lack of coverage by the mainstream media, what we don't know about the air war in Iraq so far outweighs what we do know that anything but the most minimal picture of the nature of destruction from the air in that country simply can't be painted. Instead, think of the story of U.S. air power in Iraq as a series of tiny splashes of lurid color on a largely blank canvas.
Cluster Bombs
Even among the least covered aspects of the air war in Iraq, the question of cluster-bomb (CBU) use remains especially shadowy. This is hardly surprising. After all, at a time when many nations are moving toward banning the use of cluster munitions -- at a February 2007 conference in Oslo, Norway, 46 of 48 governments represented supported a declaration for a new international treaty and ban on the weapons by 2008 -- the U.S. stands with China, Israel, Pakistan, and Russia in opposing new limits of any kind.
Little wonder. The U.S. military has a staggering arsenal of these weapons. According to a recent Human Rights Watch report, the Army holds 88% of the Pentagon's CBU inventory -- at least 638.3 million of the cluster bomblets that are stored inside each cluster munition; the Air Force and Navy, according to Department of Defense figures, have 22.2 million and 14.7 million of the bomblets, respectively. And even these numbers are considered undercounts by experts.
A cluster bomb bursts above the ground, releasing hundreds of smaller, deadly submunitions or "bomblets" that increase the weapon's kill radius causing, as Garlasco puts it, "indiscriminate effects." It's a weapon, he notes, that "cannot distinguish between a civilian and a soldier when employed because of its wide coverage area. If you're dropping the weapon and you blow your target up you're also hitting everything within a football field. So to use it in proximity to civilians is inviting a violation of the laws of armed conflict."
Worse yet, U.S. cluster munitions have a high failure rate. A sizeable number of dud bomblets fall to the ground and become de facto landmines which, Garlasco points out, are "already banned by most nations on this planet." Garlasco adds: "I don't see how any use of the current U.S. cluster bomb arsenal in proximity to civilian objects can be defended in any way as being legal or legitimate."
In an email message earlier this year, a U.S. Central Command Air Forces (CENTAF) spokesman told this reporter that "there were no instances" of CBU usage in Iraq in 2006. But military documents suggest this might not be the case.
Last year, Titus Peachey of the Mennonite Central Committee -- an organization that has studied the use of cluster munitions for more than 30 years -- filed a Freedom of Information Act request concerning the U.S. military's use of cluster bombs in Iraq since "major combat operations" officially ended in that country. In their response, the Air Force confirmed that 63 CBU-87 cluster bombs were dropped in Iraq between May 1, 2003 and August 1, 2006. A CENTAF spokesman contacted for confirmation that none of these were dropped on or after January 1, 2006, offered no response. His superior officer, Lt. Col. Johnn Kennedy, the Deputy Director of CENTAF Public Affairs, similarly ignored this reporter's requests for clarification.
These 12,726 BLU-97 bomblets -- each CBU-87 contains 202 BLU-97s or "Combined Effects Bombs" (CEBs) which have anti-personnel, anti-tank, and incendiary capabilities or "kill mechanisms" -- dropped since May 2003 are, according to statistics provided by Human Rights Watch, in addition to almost two million cluster submunitions used by coalition forces in Iraq in March and April 2003.
Asked about CBU usage by the Air Force in Iraq in 2006, Ali al-Fadhily, an independent Iraqi journalist, commented: "The use of cluster bombs is a sure thing, but it was very difficult to prove because there were no international experts to document it." In the past, however, international experts have actually had a chance to examine some locations where a fraction of the bomblets that coalition forces used have landed.
On a 2004 research trip to Iraq, for instance, Titus Peachey visited numerous sites which had experienced such strikes. At a farm in northern Iraq, he was shown not only impact craters from exploded bomblets on a farmer's property but also unexploded bomblets, by a team from the Mines Advisory Group, a humanitarian organization devoted to landmine and bomb clearance. While "the de-miners expressed frustration that the farmer had planted his field before it had been cleared," Peachey explained that this was a common, if dangerous, practice in such situations. The U.S. used similar ordnance in Laos during the Vietnam War, he pointed out, noting:
"The villagers of Laos waited more than 20 years for clearance work to get started in their fields and villages. During that time they had no choice but to till soil that was filled with bombs. Otherwise they could not eat. In Iraq, the several visits that we made confirmed this very same dynamic. People could not afford to wait until clearance teams made their farms safe for cultivation. They had to take great risks in order to survive."
Evidence of these risks can be found in U.S. military documents. Case in point: a June 2005 internal memorandum from the U.S. Army's 42d Infantry Division which describes how a 15-year old Iraqi boy, working as a shepherd, "was leading the sheep through north Tikrit, near an ammo storage site, when he picked up a UXO [unexploded ordnance] from a cluster bomb. The UXO detonated and he was killed." Asked to pay $3,000 in compensation for the boy's life, the Army granted that his death was "a horrible loss for the claimant," his mother, but concluded that there was "insufficient evidence to indicate that US. Forces caused the death."
Iraqi documents also chronicle the effects of air-delivered cluster munitions. Take a September 2006 report by the Conservation Center of Environment & Reserves, an Iraqi non-governmental organization (NGO), examining alleged violations of the laws of war by U.S. forces during the April 2004 siege of Fallujah. According to its partial list of civilian deaths, at least 53 people were killed by air-launched cluster bombs in the city that April. An analysis of data collected by another Iraqi NGO, the Iraqi Health and Social Care Organization, showed that, between March and June 2006, of 193 war-injured casualties analyzed, 148 (77%) were the result of cluster munitions of unspecified type.
Air War, Iraq: 2006
While cluster bombs remain a point of contention, Air Force officials do acknowledge that U.S. military and coalition aircraft dropped at least 111,000 pounds of other types of bombs on targets in Iraq in 2006. This figure -- 177 bombs in all -- does not include guided missiles or unguided rockets fired, or cannon rounds expended; nor, according to a CENTAF spokesman, does it take into account the munitions used by some Marine Corps and other coalition fixed-wing aircraft or any Army or Marine Corps helicopter gunships; nor does it include munitions used by the armed helicopters of the many private security contractors flying their own missions in Iraq.
In statistics provided to me, CENTAF reported a total of 10,519 "close air support missions" in Iraq in 2006, during which its aircraft dropped those 177 bombs and fired 52 "Hellfire/Maverick missiles." The Guided Bomb Unit-12, a laser-guided bomb with a 500-pound general purpose warhead -- 95 of which were reportedly dropped in 2006 -- was the most frequently used bomb in Iraq last year, according to CENTAF. In addition, 67 satellite-guided, 500-pound GBU-38s and 15 2,000-pound GBU-31/32 munitions were also dropped on Iraqi targets in 2006, according to official U.S. figures. There is no independent way, however, to confirm the accuracy of this official count.
Rockets
Rockets, like the 2.75-inch Hydra-70 rocket which can be outfitted with various warheads and fired from either fixed-wing aircraft or most military helicopters, are conspicuously absent from the totals -- so as not to "skew the tally and present an inaccurate picture of the air campaign," said a CENTAF spokesman mysteriously. If released, these figures might, however, prove impressive indeed. According to a 2005 press release issued by Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT), who helped secure a five-year, $900 million Hydra contract from the Army for General Dynamics, "the widely used Hydra-70 rocket… has seen extensive use in Afghanistan and Iraq… [and] has become the world's most widely used helicopter-launched weapon system." By this April, $502 million in orders for the Hydra-70 had been placed by the Army since the contract was awarded.
Cannon Rounds
The number of cannon rounds -- essentially large caliber "bullets"-- fired by CENTAF aircraft is also a closely guarded secret. The official reason given is that "special forces often use aircraft such as the AC-130" gunships, which fire cannon rounds, and "their missions and operations are classified, so therefore these figures are not released." However, an idea of the number of cannon rounds expended by CENTAF aircraft can be gleaned from a description of a single operation on January 28, 2007 when U.S. F-16s and A-10 Thunderbolts not only "dropped more than 3.5 tons of precision munitions," but also fired "1,200 rounds of 20mm and 1,100 rounds of 30mm cannon fire" in a five square mile area near the southern city of Najaf.
A sense of usage levels can also be gathered from a consideration of contracts awarded in recent years. Take the 20mm PGU-28 ammunition used by helicopters like the AH-1 Cobra and fixed-wing aircraft like the F-16. In 2001, the Department of Defense noted that it held approximately eight million PGU-28/B rounds in its inventory. In May 2003, the Army took steps to increase that arsenal by modifying an existing contract with General Dynamics to add 980,064 rounds of 20mm ammunition to 1.3 million rounds already delivered since December 2001.
In February 2004, General Dynamics was awarded an almost $11 million add-on to an already existing contract for an extra 427,000 cannon rounds for the AH-1 Cobra helicopter. In September 2006, General Dynamics was awarded a similar nearly $14 million add-on for yet more 20mm ammunition; and, in April 2007, $22 million for more of the same. That same month, the U.S. Army Sustainment Command issued a "sources sought notice," looking for more arms manufacturers willing to produce six million or more rounds of such ordnance with promises of an "estimated 400% option over 5 years."
Yet, repeated inquiries about cannon rounds fired in Iraq prompted a CENTAF spokesman to emphatically state in an email: "WE DO NOT REPORT CANNON ROUNDS." Lt. Col. Johnn Kennedy followed up, noting, "Glad to see you appreciate the tremendous efforts [my subordinate] has already expended on you. Trust me, it's probably much more significant than the relentless pursuit of the number of cannon rounds."
But the number of cannon rounds and rockets fired by U.S. aircraft is hardly an insignificant matter. According to Les Roberts, co-author of two surveys of mortality in Iraq published in the British medical journal, The Lancet, "Rocket and cannon fire could account for most coalition-attributed civilian deaths." He adds, "I find it disturbing that they will not release this [figure], but even more disturbing that they have not released such information to Congressmen who have requested it."
In 2004, Roberts himself witnessed the destruction caused by cannon fire in Baghdad's vast Shiite slum, Sadr City. He recalls again and again passing through 100-200 meter-wide areas of neighborhoods that had been raked by cannon rounds. "It wasn't one house that was beat up," he recalled. "It would be five, six, seven buildings in a row." Unlike bomb- and artillery-ravaged Ramadi and Fallujah, Roberts noted:
"There weren't whole buildings knocked down. There were just big swaths of many, many houses where every window was broken, where there were thousands of pockmarks from cannon fire; not little dents, but huge chunks the size of your fist out of the walls, and lamp-posts bent over because they lost their integrity from being hit so many times."
This portrait of devastation is echoed in the words of journalist Ali al-Fadhily, who told me that he had witnessed helicopter gunships in action, noting: "The destruction they caused was always immense and casualties so many. They simply destroy the target with every living soul inside. The smell of death comes with those machines."
While the destructive capacity of helicopter gunships has been well-documented and we have indications of the levels of ammunition available to the military, the actual scale of use is hard to pin down. Flight hours are, however, another indication. According to James Glantz of the New York Times, Army helicopters logged 240,000 flight hours in Iraq in 2005, 334,000 in 2006, and projections for 2007 suggest that the figure will reach 400,000. (And these numbers don't even include Marine Corps squadrons, heliborne missions by private security contractors, or those of the nascent Iraqi Air Force.)
Top Secret Information
While military press information officers continue to stonewall on the number of cannon rounds fired by helicopters ("We cannot comment on your inquiry due to operational security"), earlier this year Col. Robert A. Fitzgerald, the Marine Corps' head of aviation plans and policy, was quoted in National Defense Magazine on the subject. He claimed that, in 2006, "Marine rotary-wing aircraft flew more than 60,000 combat flight hours, and fixed-wing platforms completed 31,000. They dropped 80 tons of bombs and fired 80 missiles, 3,532 rockets and more than 2 million rounds of smaller ammunition." (When asked if Col. Fitzgerald's admission endangered "operational security," a military spokesman responded, "I cannot comment on the policies or release authority of a Marine colonel.")
While Col. Fitzgerald's statistics presumably also include operations in Afghanistan (where we know U.S. air power has been called upon ever more heavily), they do remind us that the minimalist figures regularly given out by CENTAF hardly offer an accurate picture of the air war in Iraq. When combined with the military's evasive non-answers, they are also a reminder of what a dearth of information is actually available on even seemingly innocuous matters relating to the air war in Iraq.
For example, from January through April, I posed questions to a Coalition Press Information Center media contact -- one "SSG Wiley." After being rebuffed on the topic of munitions expenditure, I asked, in January, about the total number of "rotary-wing sorties" flown in 2006. The aptly-named Wiley responded that s/he "sent it out to the relevant directorates and [was] awaiting a response.... I will contact you as soon as I get something." That turned out, despite follow-up, to be never. Following a March 30th query regarding "the relevant directorates," s/he entreated me, by email, to drop my request for information. Facing the reportorial void, I asked if Wiley would at least provide his/her full name and title for attribution in this article. S/he has yet to respond.
The New Iraqi Air Force
Another little-talked about aspect of the air war is the modest emergence of a new Iraqi Air Force (IAF). Until the first Gulf War, the Iraqi military had a large air contingent, including hundreds of modern Russian and French combat aircraft. Today, apparently owing to U.S. reluctance to put powerful modern weaponry of any sort in Iraqi hands, the reconstituted IAF is a distinctly less impressive force. Instead of advanced fighters and bombers, they fly SAMA CH-2000 two-seat, single-engine prop airplanes, SB7L-360 Seeker reconnaissance aircraft, a handful of C-130 Hercules turbo-prop cargo planes, and Bell 206 Ranger, UH-1HP "Huey" and Russian Mi-17 helicopters based out of military installations in Baghdad, Basra, Kirkuk, and Taji.
Recently returning from a fact-finding mission in Iraq, undertaken in his capacity as an adjunct professor at the United States Military Academy at West Point, retired U.S. Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey called for sending more aircraft, including 150 helicopters, to the Iraqi security forces. In fact, the IAF recently did take delivery of newly refurbished helicopters at Taji Air Base, is scheduled to receive new aircraft at Kirkuk, and has contracted to add 28 new Mi-17 helicopters in the near future.
The IAF may even be conducting full-scale air strikes of its own sometime soon. As of April 1, 2007, five Iraqi Bell 206 Ranger pilots from its 12th Squadron had already logged more than 188 combat hours. In a recent Air Force Times article, Capt. Shane Werley, the chief American advisor to the IAF's 2d Squadron, asserted that pilots he was working with would, at an unspecified date, "be taking missions from the [Army's] 1st Cavalry [Division at Taji]…. The bottom line is we're getting these guys back in the fight."
The Scale of the Carnage
Just a few dogged reporters assigned to the air-power beat might, at least, have offered some sense of the human fall-out of this largely one-sided air war. Since this has not been the case, we must rely on the best available evidence. One valuable source is the national cross-sectional cluster sample survey of mortality in Iraq since the 2003 invasion, published last year in The Lancet which used well-established survey methods that have been proven accurate in conflict zones from Kosovo to the Congo. (Interviewers actually inspected death certificates in an overwhelming majority of the Iraqi households surveyed.)
Carried out by epidemiologists at Johns Hopkins University's Bloomberg School of Public Health and Iraqi physicians organized through Mustansiriya University in Baghdad, it estimated 655,000 "excess Iraqi deaths as a consequence of the war." The study also found that, from March 2003 through June 2006, 13% of violent deaths in Iraq were caused by coalition air strikes. If the 655,000 figure, including over 601,000 violent deaths, is accurate, this would equal approximately 78,133 Iraqis killed by bombs, missiles, rockets, or cannon rounds up to last June.
There are also indications that the air war has taken an especially grievous toll on Iraqi children. Figures provided by The Lancet study's authors suggest that 50% of all violent deaths of Iraqi children under 15 years of age in that same period were due to coalition air strikes. These findings are echoed by Conservation Center of Environment & Reserves' statistics, indicating that no fewer of 25 of the 59 Iraqis on their partial list of those killed by air strikes during the April 2004 siege of Fallujah were children.
The Iraq Body Count Project (IBC), a group of researchers based in the United Kingdom who maintain a public database of Iraqi civilian deaths resulting from the war, carefully restricts itself to media-documented reports of civilian fatalities. While its figures are consequently much lower than The Lancet's -- currently, its tally range stands at: 64,133-70,243 -- an analysis of its media-limited data offers a glimpse of the human costs of the air war.
Statistics provided by the Iraq Body Count Project show that from 2003-2006, coalition air strikes, according to media sources alone (which, as we know, have covered the air war poorly), killed 3,615-4,083 people and left another 11,956-12,962 wounded. Last year, media reports listed between 169-200 Iraqis killed and 111-112 injured in 28 separate coalition air strikes, according to the IBC project. These numbers also appear to be on the rise. John Sloboda, the project's spokesperson and co-founder notes by email that, during 2006, the "vast majority" of lethal air strikes took place during the latter half of the year.
Asked about the assertion that the second half of 2006 was deadlier for Iraqis, due to U.S. air strikes, and the possible reasons for this, Lt. Col. Kennedy waxed eloquent: "War, by its very nature, has ebbs and flows, and we constantly review the application of airpower to best support the forces on the ground in theater. We view this as simply part of our contract to the warfighters. As we do not discuss operational aspects of missions, I'll decline further comment." But recently, Air Force Chief of Staff T. Michael Moseley did admit that he had "anecdotal evidence" suggesting "airpower is the most lethal of the components in wrapping up bad guys." He continued, "As far as numbers of people killed, as far as wrapping up bad guys and as far as delivering a kinetic effect, the air component -- which also includes Marine and Navy air, by the way -- is the most lethal of the components."
According to IBC's figures, during the first three months of 2007, U.S. air attacks had already killed more than half as many civilians as had died in all air strikes last year -- some 95-107 deaths; and publicly available CENTAF statistics indeed do show a surge in close air-support missions in 2007. For example, between March 24 and March 30, 2006, CENTAF reported 366 close air support missions. In 2007, the number for the same dates skyrocketed to 437 -- an almost 20% jump.
The Secret of Why the Air War Is So Secret
Unfortunately, media reports on the air war are so sparse, with reporting confined largely to reprinting U.S. military handouts and announcements of air strikes, that much of the air war in Iraq remains unknown -- although the very fact of an occupying power regularly conducting air strikes in and near population centers should have raised a question or two. Echoing Ali al-Fadhily's comments about the dearth of international observers in Iraq, Garlasco of Human Rights Watch notes, "Because of the lack of security we've had no one on the ground for three years now, and so we have no way of knowing what's going on there." He adds, "It's a huge hole in all the human rights organizations' reporting."
But human rights organizations and other NGOs are just part of the story. Since the Bush administration's invasion, the American air war has been given remarkably short shrift in the media. Back in December 2004, Tom Engelhardt, writing at Tomdispatch, called attention to this glaring absence. Seymour Hersh's seminal piece on air power, "Up in the Air," published in the New Yorker in late 2005, briefly ushered in some mainstream attention to the subject. And articles by Dahr Jamail, an independent journalist who covered the American occupation of Iraq, before and after the Hersh piece, are among the smattering of pieces that have offered glimpses of the air campaign and its impact. To date, however, the mainstream media has not, to use the words of Lt. Col. Kennedy, engaged in a "relentless pursuit of the number of cannon rounds" fired -- or any other aspect of the air war or its consequences for Iraqis.
Les Roberts especially laments just "how profoundly the press has failed us" when it comes to coverage of the war. "In the first couple of years of the war," he says, "our survey data suggest that there were more deaths from bombs dropped by our planes than there were deaths from roadside explosives and car bombs [detonated by insurgents]." The only group on the ground systematically collecting violent death data at the time, the NGO Coordinating Committee for Iraq, he notes, found the same thing. "If you had been reading the U.S. papers and watching the U.S. television news at the time," Roberts adds, "you would have gotten the impression that anti-coalition bombs were more numerous. That was not just wrong, it probably was wrong by a factor of ten!"
With the military unwilling to tell the truth – or say anything at all, in most cases-- and unable to provide the stability necessary for NGOs to operate, it falls to the mainstream media, even at this late stage of the conflict, to begin ferreting out substantive information on the air war. It seems, however, that until reporters begin bypassing official U.S. military pronouncements and locating Iraqi sources, we will remain largely in the dark with little knowledge of what can only be described as the secret U.S. air war in Iraq.
Nick Turse is the associate editor and research director of Tomdispatch.com. He has written for the Los Angeles Times, the San Francisco Chronicle, the Nation, the Village Voice, and regularly for Tomdispatch. A shorter version of this piece appears in this week's Nation Magazine.
Copyright 2007 Nick Turse
TomDispatch.com
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Gazprom sweeps the Austrians off their feet
14:40 | 25/ 05/ 2007
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti economic commentator Vasily Zubkov) - The main issue on President Vladimir Putin's agenda in Vienna was economic cooperation, predominantly gas supplies and increased gas transit to Western Europe, just as Austrian Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer had predicted before the official visit.
Putin's trip strengthened ties between Russian energy giant Gazprom and its Austrian partner, OMV, which have the longest relationship in the history of Russian-Austrian gas cooperation. In 2008, Gazprom and OMV will celebrate 40 years of beneficial interaction, which has not been affected even by the current EU-Russia tensions.
Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller represented Russia's extensive interests in its gas dialogue with Austria, which is acquiring strategic elements.
In autumn 2006, Austria signed an agreement with Gazprom to prolong contracts on the annual supply of up to 7 billion cubic meters of gas until 2027, becoming the first country in Europe to agree to such an extended agreement. Likewise, in 1968 it was also the first western country to sign a long-term contract for natural gas supplies from the Soviet Union.
By the start of this year, Russia had supplied more than 150 billion cubic meters of gas to Austria, or 80% of its needs. The Alpine republic's annual gas consumption amounts to 9.14 billion cubic meters, and production to some 2 billion.
Unlike many other European countries, Austria is satisfied with the amount of supplies from and the terms of its contracts with Russia, and has made quite a few steps to meet its partner halfway.
Last year, Gazprom was granted the right to take part in the sale of nearly 50% of gas supplies to end consumers in several federal states. Its dream of producing, transporting and selling natural gas to end users abroad, which promises a substantial increment in revenues, is coming true in Austria.
Putin said in Vienna that gas costs $240 per 1,000 cubic meters on the border and is sold to end consumers at $1,000.
However, trade is not the focal point of the Russian-Austrian energy dialogue. Austria is the crucial gas supply hub for transiting Russian natural gas to Italy, France, Hungary, Germany, Slovenia and Croatia. Annual transit through the country exceeds 30 billion cubic meters and is expected to grow.
Gazprom is directly involved in gas transit across Austria, part of which is delivered by GWH Gas und Warenhandelsgesellschaft m.b.H (a joint venture of OMV, Gazexport und Centrex). Gazexport, a 100% subsidiary of Gazprom, holds a 50% stake in it. GWH was set up in 1991, bought its first batch of Russian natural gas in 1994, and began transiting it to Germany across Austria in 1996.
Putin's visit has also strengthened transit relations. Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and OMV president Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer signed a memorandum of understanding which confirms Gazprom's intention to acquire a stake in the Central European Gas Hub, a wholly owned subsidiary of OMV Gas International controlling the transport of gas, including Russian gas, in Central Europe.
The two countries are also extending their cooperation in gas storage. Miller discussed the issue with Martin Bartenstein, Austria's Minister of Economic Affairs and Labor.
Gazprom has an agreement on the construction of Austria's largest underground gas storage facility, with a capacity of 2.4 billion cubic meters, at Haidach, near Salzburg, in a consortium with Austria's RAG and Wingas, a joint venture of Gazprom and Wintershall (a subsidiary of German chemical concern BASF).
Another transportation project that was most probably discussed in Vienna is the proposed Nabucco gas pipeline, which would transport Central Asian gas from Erzurum in Turkey to Austria. Its operator should be OMV Gas International. President George Bush Sr., Turkey and Austria proposed the pipeline as a means of bypassing Russia and evading Moscow's control; the idea was later taken up by the European Union.
However, the multibillion-dollar project has so far remained on paper.
On May 12, Vladimir Putin, Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev and Kurbankuli Berdymukhammedov, the leader of Turkmenistan, agreed to jointly modernize the pipeline running along the eastern and northern shores of the Caspian Sea and lay a new pipe near it. This will double the pipeline's capacity and make it the main export route for Turkmen, Kazakh and Uzbek gas.
The EU is not happy, as Nabucco's future now looks gloomy. Experts say the three leaders' decision signaled "the last death of Nebuchadnezzar," the Babylonian king whose shortened name is Nabucco.
Gazprom does not fear competition from Nabucco. Sergei Kupriyanov, a spokesman for the Russian gas monopoly, said after the official talks in Vienna that Nabucco was only an expression of several countries' intent to use their territories for gas transit. "However, there is no gas to transport yet, and no contracts for its sale," he said.
Has Putin convinced the practical Austrians to abandon the idea of a "communal pipe"? According to the documents signed in Vienna, he has assured them that Gazprom is more than enough for Central Europe.
The gas segment of the talks was clearly a success, along with the rest of the visit. Putin has returned to Moscow with a portfolio of about 30 contracts covering different economic sectors and worth 3 billion euros.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
GAZPROM AND OMV AG SIGN MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING
Today, in Vienna (Austria) in the frames of the official visit of the Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin, Alexey Miller, Chairman of the Gazprom Management Committee and Dr. Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Executive Board of OMV AG have signed a Memorandum of understanding.
Pursuant to the document the parties confirm Gazprom’s intention to participate in the Central European Gas Hub (a 100 per cent subsidiary of OMV Gas International) located at Baumgarten.
“These integrated projects will become another milestone in the cooperation of our companies and contribute to reliability increase of natural gas supply to Europe,” said Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer.
“The Memorandum signed today with Austrian partners confirms that the Gazprom development strategy follows a dynamic energy sector development in the countries of the European Union and will contribute to provision of the European energy security,” said Alexey Miller.
Reference:
Within more than 38 years Austria’s largest oil and gas group OMV has been the major business partner of Gazprom. OMV was the first Western company to enter in 1968 into a long-term contract for the purchase of natural gas in the USSR. Until 1987 Gazprom owned a 100 per cent stake in the company. Nowadays the largest shareholder of OMV is the state (via the Austrian state holding company OIAG owning a 31.5 per cent stake).
OMV Gas International was established in early 2006 as an OMV holding company responsible for the natural gas business including gas logistics and storage through the subsidiaries as OMV Gas (100 per cent), Nabucco Gaspipeline International and Adria LNG, gas trading via EconGas (50 per cent) and Petrom (51 per cent).
In May 2005 Gazprom export and OMV agreed to supply natural gas to Western Europe via the Western-Austrian gas pipeline (WAG-West Austria Gasleitung). A new Agreement was concluded for a twenty-year period over 2007 to 2027. Pursuant to the document, OMV annually until 2027 will transport some 4.4 bcm of Russian gas from the Slovak border via the territory of Austria up to the German boarder.
In September 2006 Gazprom and a group of Austrian companies signed the long-term contracts to supply gas to Austria. In accordance with the contracts signed Gazprom will annually supply nearly 7 bcm of gas to Austria until 2027.
As of January 1, 2007, from the beginning of gas supplies to Austria Gazprom supplied more than 150 bcm.
The Central European Gas Hub in Baumgarten is one of the largest gas distribution centers in Europe. In 2006 the Hub distributed 7.7 bcm of gas.
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti economic commentator Vasily Zubkov) - The main issue on President Vladimir Putin's agenda in Vienna was economic cooperation, predominantly gas supplies and increased gas transit to Western Europe, just as Austrian Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer had predicted before the official visit.
Putin's trip strengthened ties between Russian energy giant Gazprom and its Austrian partner, OMV, which have the longest relationship in the history of Russian-Austrian gas cooperation. In 2008, Gazprom and OMV will celebrate 40 years of beneficial interaction, which has not been affected even by the current EU-Russia tensions.
Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller represented Russia's extensive interests in its gas dialogue with Austria, which is acquiring strategic elements.
In autumn 2006, Austria signed an agreement with Gazprom to prolong contracts on the annual supply of up to 7 billion cubic meters of gas until 2027, becoming the first country in Europe to agree to such an extended agreement. Likewise, in 1968 it was also the first western country to sign a long-term contract for natural gas supplies from the Soviet Union.
By the start of this year, Russia had supplied more than 150 billion cubic meters of gas to Austria, or 80% of its needs. The Alpine republic's annual gas consumption amounts to 9.14 billion cubic meters, and production to some 2 billion.
Unlike many other European countries, Austria is satisfied with the amount of supplies from and the terms of its contracts with Russia, and has made quite a few steps to meet its partner halfway.
Last year, Gazprom was granted the right to take part in the sale of nearly 50% of gas supplies to end consumers in several federal states. Its dream of producing, transporting and selling natural gas to end users abroad, which promises a substantial increment in revenues, is coming true in Austria.
Putin said in Vienna that gas costs $240 per 1,000 cubic meters on the border and is sold to end consumers at $1,000.
However, trade is not the focal point of the Russian-Austrian energy dialogue. Austria is the crucial gas supply hub for transiting Russian natural gas to Italy, France, Hungary, Germany, Slovenia and Croatia. Annual transit through the country exceeds 30 billion cubic meters and is expected to grow.
Gazprom is directly involved in gas transit across Austria, part of which is delivered by GWH Gas und Warenhandelsgesellschaft m.b.H (a joint venture of OMV, Gazexport und Centrex). Gazexport, a 100% subsidiary of Gazprom, holds a 50% stake in it. GWH was set up in 1991, bought its first batch of Russian natural gas in 1994, and began transiting it to Germany across Austria in 1996.
Putin's visit has also strengthened transit relations. Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and OMV president Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer signed a memorandum of understanding which confirms Gazprom's intention to acquire a stake in the Central European Gas Hub, a wholly owned subsidiary of OMV Gas International controlling the transport of gas, including Russian gas, in Central Europe.
The two countries are also extending their cooperation in gas storage. Miller discussed the issue with Martin Bartenstein, Austria's Minister of Economic Affairs and Labor.
Gazprom has an agreement on the construction of Austria's largest underground gas storage facility, with a capacity of 2.4 billion cubic meters, at Haidach, near Salzburg, in a consortium with Austria's RAG and Wingas, a joint venture of Gazprom and Wintershall (a subsidiary of German chemical concern BASF).
Another transportation project that was most probably discussed in Vienna is the proposed Nabucco gas pipeline, which would transport Central Asian gas from Erzurum in Turkey to Austria. Its operator should be OMV Gas International. President George Bush Sr., Turkey and Austria proposed the pipeline as a means of bypassing Russia and evading Moscow's control; the idea was later taken up by the European Union.
However, the multibillion-dollar project has so far remained on paper.
On May 12, Vladimir Putin, Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev and Kurbankuli Berdymukhammedov, the leader of Turkmenistan, agreed to jointly modernize the pipeline running along the eastern and northern shores of the Caspian Sea and lay a new pipe near it. This will double the pipeline's capacity and make it the main export route for Turkmen, Kazakh and Uzbek gas.
The EU is not happy, as Nabucco's future now looks gloomy. Experts say the three leaders' decision signaled "the last death of Nebuchadnezzar," the Babylonian king whose shortened name is Nabucco.
Gazprom does not fear competition from Nabucco. Sergei Kupriyanov, a spokesman for the Russian gas monopoly, said after the official talks in Vienna that Nabucco was only an expression of several countries' intent to use their territories for gas transit. "However, there is no gas to transport yet, and no contracts for its sale," he said.
Has Putin convinced the practical Austrians to abandon the idea of a "communal pipe"? According to the documents signed in Vienna, he has assured them that Gazprom is more than enough for Central Europe.
The gas segment of the talks was clearly a success, along with the rest of the visit. Putin has returned to Moscow with a portfolio of about 30 contracts covering different economic sectors and worth 3 billion euros.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
GAZPROM AND OMV AG SIGN MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING
Today, in Vienna (Austria) in the frames of the official visit of the Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin, Alexey Miller, Chairman of the Gazprom Management Committee and Dr. Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Executive Board of OMV AG have signed a Memorandum of understanding.
Pursuant to the document the parties confirm Gazprom’s intention to participate in the Central European Gas Hub (a 100 per cent subsidiary of OMV Gas International) located at Baumgarten.
“These integrated projects will become another milestone in the cooperation of our companies and contribute to reliability increase of natural gas supply to Europe,” said Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer.
“The Memorandum signed today with Austrian partners confirms that the Gazprom development strategy follows a dynamic energy sector development in the countries of the European Union and will contribute to provision of the European energy security,” said Alexey Miller.
Reference:
Within more than 38 years Austria’s largest oil and gas group OMV has been the major business partner of Gazprom. OMV was the first Western company to enter in 1968 into a long-term contract for the purchase of natural gas in the USSR. Until 1987 Gazprom owned a 100 per cent stake in the company. Nowadays the largest shareholder of OMV is the state (via the Austrian state holding company OIAG owning a 31.5 per cent stake).
OMV Gas International was established in early 2006 as an OMV holding company responsible for the natural gas business including gas logistics and storage through the subsidiaries as OMV Gas (100 per cent), Nabucco Gaspipeline International and Adria LNG, gas trading via EconGas (50 per cent) and Petrom (51 per cent).
In May 2005 Gazprom export and OMV agreed to supply natural gas to Western Europe via the Western-Austrian gas pipeline (WAG-West Austria Gasleitung). A new Agreement was concluded for a twenty-year period over 2007 to 2027. Pursuant to the document, OMV annually until 2027 will transport some 4.4 bcm of Russian gas from the Slovak border via the territory of Austria up to the German boarder.
In September 2006 Gazprom and a group of Austrian companies signed the long-term contracts to supply gas to Austria. In accordance with the contracts signed Gazprom will annually supply nearly 7 bcm of gas to Austria until 2027.
As of January 1, 2007, from the beginning of gas supplies to Austria Gazprom supplied more than 150 bcm.
The Central European Gas Hub in Baumgarten is one of the largest gas distribution centers in Europe. In 2006 the Hub distributed 7.7 bcm of gas.
No plans to join NASA lunar program - Russian space agency
13:15 | 25/ 05/ 2007
WASHINGTON, May 25 (RIA Novosti) - Russia will not participate in joint lunar exploration with NASA, but will assist the U.S. with its shuttle program until 2015, a spokesman for the Russian space agency said.
After U.S. President George W. Bush announced his Vision for Space Exploration in 2004, a plan for new manned lunar missions, the country's National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) elaborated a program that envisions the construction of a manned lunar base, which will require broad international cooperation.
Igor Panarin said Wednesday at a news conference in the Russian Embassy in Washington that separate funds have not been earmarked for Moon exploration projects under Russia's federal space program for 2006-2015 and Russia will conduct its own lunar research in the next decade using unmanned spacecraft.
"Until 2015, we are planning to study the Moon only with the use of unmanned space vehicles," Panarin said. "However, after 2015, when our program is concluded, we might consider other approaches [to cooperation in lunar exploration]."
But the space official said Russia will assist India and China in their lunar research programs because they also envision only the study of the Earth's satellite by unmanned spacecraft in the near future, while the U.S. program involves manned flights.
China said May 21 its exploration project would involve three stages -- orbiting the Moon in 2006, landing an unmanned rover on the Moon in 2010 or 2012, and returning lunar soil and rock samples from the Moon around 2015.
Panarin also said Russia and China developed a joint program on Mars exploration, which involves the use of Russian technologies.
SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Speaking about the future of NASA's space shuttle program, Panarin expressed the hope that the U.S. would successfully launch all 15 spacecraft until the program ends in 2015, and reaffirmed the possibility that Russian Progress cargo vehicles could be used to haul load to orbit if the U.S. program encounters problems.
NASA earlier announced its intentions to gradually reduce U.S. shuttle flights to the ISS as problems with the spacecraft had plagued the program over the past years.
In April, the U.S. signed with Russia a $719 million addendum to the current International Space Station (ISS) agreement. Under the addendum Russia will deliver to the ISS 15 American astronauts and 5.6 metric tons of cargo until 2011.
"We would certainly want all 15 [space shuttle] flights to go on successfully, because each flight means 20 tons of cargo," Panarin said Wednesday, "I think we should hope for that, but consider the alternatives at the same time."
He said one of the options was the launch of Russian Soyuz spacecraft from a new space center in French Guiana constructed by Russian specialists, but the Soyuz must be modified to carry cargo in that case.
Panarin said that despite NASA concerns that the U.S. space program could be stalled for about five years between the end of the current space shuttle program in 2015 and the launch of a new Orion spacecraft in 2020, Russia and the U.S. "as partners and colleagues should support each other and find solutions [for potential problems].
Orion is a spacecraft design currently under development by NASA. Each Orion spacecraft will carry a crew of four to six astronauts, and will be launched by the new Ares I launch vehicle. Both Orion and Ares I are elements of NASA's Project Constellation, which plans to send astronauts back to the Moon by 2020, and then onward to Mars and other destinations in the solar system.
SPACE TOURISM
The Russian space official said Russia had been in talks with more than 10 potential space tourists, all of whom are foreign citizens.
"More than 10 people expressed the desire to participate in space flights as tourists," Panarin said. "We are holding preliminary consultations with them, and there are no Russians among them."
So far, five people have realized their dreams to see our planet from outer space.
Dennis Tito, an American businessman and former NASA scientist, became the first space tourist when he visited the ISS in 2001.
He was followed by South African computer millionaire Mark Shuttleworth in 2002, Gregory Olsen, a U.S. entrepreneur and scientist, in 2005, Anousheh Ansari, 40, a U.S. citizen of Iranian origin and a telecommunications businesswoman, in 2006 and Charles Simonyi, 58, a U.S. citizen of Hungarian descent and a key figure in developing Microsoft's Word and Excel applications, in 2007.
The space tourists have paid about $20 million each for the pleasure of spending a week on the orbital station, but Russia said the price for commercial space flights would go up in the future, reaching $21.8 million.
WASHINGTON, May 25 (RIA Novosti) - Russia will not participate in joint lunar exploration with NASA, but will assist the U.S. with its shuttle program until 2015, a spokesman for the Russian space agency said.
After U.S. President George W. Bush announced his Vision for Space Exploration in 2004, a plan for new manned lunar missions, the country's National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) elaborated a program that envisions the construction of a manned lunar base, which will require broad international cooperation.
Igor Panarin said Wednesday at a news conference in the Russian Embassy in Washington that separate funds have not been earmarked for Moon exploration projects under Russia's federal space program for 2006-2015 and Russia will conduct its own lunar research in the next decade using unmanned spacecraft.
"Until 2015, we are planning to study the Moon only with the use of unmanned space vehicles," Panarin said. "However, after 2015, when our program is concluded, we might consider other approaches [to cooperation in lunar exploration]."
But the space official said Russia will assist India and China in their lunar research programs because they also envision only the study of the Earth's satellite by unmanned spacecraft in the near future, while the U.S. program involves manned flights.
China said May 21 its exploration project would involve three stages -- orbiting the Moon in 2006, landing an unmanned rover on the Moon in 2010 or 2012, and returning lunar soil and rock samples from the Moon around 2015.
Panarin also said Russia and China developed a joint program on Mars exploration, which involves the use of Russian technologies.
SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM
Speaking about the future of NASA's space shuttle program, Panarin expressed the hope that the U.S. would successfully launch all 15 spacecraft until the program ends in 2015, and reaffirmed the possibility that Russian Progress cargo vehicles could be used to haul load to orbit if the U.S. program encounters problems.
NASA earlier announced its intentions to gradually reduce U.S. shuttle flights to the ISS as problems with the spacecraft had plagued the program over the past years.
In April, the U.S. signed with Russia a $719 million addendum to the current International Space Station (ISS) agreement. Under the addendum Russia will deliver to the ISS 15 American astronauts and 5.6 metric tons of cargo until 2011.
"We would certainly want all 15 [space shuttle] flights to go on successfully, because each flight means 20 tons of cargo," Panarin said Wednesday, "I think we should hope for that, but consider the alternatives at the same time."
He said one of the options was the launch of Russian Soyuz spacecraft from a new space center in French Guiana constructed by Russian specialists, but the Soyuz must be modified to carry cargo in that case.
Panarin said that despite NASA concerns that the U.S. space program could be stalled for about five years between the end of the current space shuttle program in 2015 and the launch of a new Orion spacecraft in 2020, Russia and the U.S. "as partners and colleagues should support each other and find solutions [for potential problems].
Orion is a spacecraft design currently under development by NASA. Each Orion spacecraft will carry a crew of four to six astronauts, and will be launched by the new Ares I launch vehicle. Both Orion and Ares I are elements of NASA's Project Constellation, which plans to send astronauts back to the Moon by 2020, and then onward to Mars and other destinations in the solar system.
SPACE TOURISM
The Russian space official said Russia had been in talks with more than 10 potential space tourists, all of whom are foreign citizens.
"More than 10 people expressed the desire to participate in space flights as tourists," Panarin said. "We are holding preliminary consultations with them, and there are no Russians among them."
So far, five people have realized their dreams to see our planet from outer space.
Dennis Tito, an American businessman and former NASA scientist, became the first space tourist when he visited the ISS in 2001.
He was followed by South African computer millionaire Mark Shuttleworth in 2002, Gregory Olsen, a U.S. entrepreneur and scientist, in 2005, Anousheh Ansari, 40, a U.S. citizen of Iranian origin and a telecommunications businesswoman, in 2006 and Charles Simonyi, 58, a U.S. citizen of Hungarian descent and a key figure in developing Microsoft's Word and Excel applications, in 2007.
The space tourists have paid about $20 million each for the pleasure of spending a week on the orbital station, but Russia said the price for commercial space flights would go up in the future, reaching $21.8 million.
Analysis: Water, source of life and strife
Published: May 21, 2007 at 12:42 PM
By CLAUDE SALHANI
UPI International Editor
AMMAN, Jordan, May 21 (UPI) -- The next major Middle East war could well be fought not over land, oil or religion -- the traditional causes of conflict to date -- but over water, a precious commodity becoming rarer by the day.
Addressing top leaders in industry, business, banking and the media in his speech at the opening session of the World Economic Forum held on the shores of the Dead Sea last week, King Abdullah II of Jordan raised the alarm over the scarcity of water in the region and warned of the dire consequences for not only the developing nations, but the havoc water scarcity would have on the developed world as a whole.
Indeed, much of the Israeli-Palestinian land dispute is in fact centered on water rights, as both communities are battling for control of extremely limited water resources.
Additionally, Israel has long envied Lebanon's Litani and Zahrani rivers that flow through the south of the country. During the last three decades Israel has launched repeated military operations in southern Lebanon in which Israeli troops found themselves in control of the rivers, albeit temporarily, following international pressures on Israel to withdraw.
In previous years Egypt had threatened to go to war with Sudan to prevent Khartoum from trying to mess with the natural course of the Nile River -- the lifeline of Egypt without which the tiny strip of arable land on either bank of the river and its loamy delta would become engulfed by the desert sands.
Similarly, tension between Syria and Turkey rose to near danger levels a few years ago over the distribution of the water of the Euphrates River, which flows through Iraq, Syria and Turkey.
"One critical challenge is water," said the Jordanian monarch. "From the snowy peaks of the Atlas Mountains to the Empty Quarter of the Arab Peninsula, most of our region's countries cannot meet the current water demands.
"As a region, if we do not plan how we will meet this most basic need, if we do not commit the necessary investments to resolve this problem, we will not be fighting for peace, we will be fighting for our lives," said Abdullah. "We need to rise to this challenge."
A witness to the king's testimony over water shortages was only a stone's throw from the convention center and easily visible to anyone who took a few minutes to venture onto the terrace facing the Dead Sea.
The sinking levels of the Dead Sea waters have authorities both in Jordan as well as in Israel seriously worried. The current rate at which the waters are receding is about 1 meter a year. During the 20th century the level of the Dead Sea dropped from about 390 meters below sea level in 1930 to 414 meters below sea level in 1999, with the average rate of fall accelerating in recent years. Today it stands at 418 meters below sea level.
Israel has for a number of years drawn up plans to construct a canal from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea with the aim of raising the water level of the Dead Sea, a project not without controversy.
With a population of 325 million across the Arab world -- and growing fast -- a region made up of 23 countries -- 22 Arab states plus Israel -- indeed, the need for water will only increase in the years to come. "It is larger than Europe, larger than Canada, larger than China and larger that the United States," Abdullah said of the Arab world.
Yet unlike Europe with its abundance of rivers and rainfall, the Middle East is a large region with few water resources and little rain. Some countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have turned to the sea for their freshwater supply. But desalination plants are expensive to build.
Further complicating the problem of water-sharing is the absence of peace in the region. Yet despite the explosive situation permeating the region, with fighting in Gaza, Iraq and Lebanon, the king believes it is important to "begin asking a new question: 'What about the day after peace?'"
"The time has come to stop thinking about peace as an end; an end to conflict, but as a beginning, a beginning of sweeping new opportunities and benefits for the people of this region," said Abdullah. "A region with ample, clean water in every home and a healthy environment that protects its people and its natural heritage."
But despite the king's well-placed optimism, until the day when his vision of a conflict-free Middle East becomes a reality, a lot of water will flow under the bridge. A lot of wasted water.
--
(e-mail: claude@upi.com)
By CLAUDE SALHANI
UPI International Editor
AMMAN, Jordan, May 21 (UPI) -- The next major Middle East war could well be fought not over land, oil or religion -- the traditional causes of conflict to date -- but over water, a precious commodity becoming rarer by the day.
Addressing top leaders in industry, business, banking and the media in his speech at the opening session of the World Economic Forum held on the shores of the Dead Sea last week, King Abdullah II of Jordan raised the alarm over the scarcity of water in the region and warned of the dire consequences for not only the developing nations, but the havoc water scarcity would have on the developed world as a whole.
Indeed, much of the Israeli-Palestinian land dispute is in fact centered on water rights, as both communities are battling for control of extremely limited water resources.
Additionally, Israel has long envied Lebanon's Litani and Zahrani rivers that flow through the south of the country. During the last three decades Israel has launched repeated military operations in southern Lebanon in which Israeli troops found themselves in control of the rivers, albeit temporarily, following international pressures on Israel to withdraw.
In previous years Egypt had threatened to go to war with Sudan to prevent Khartoum from trying to mess with the natural course of the Nile River -- the lifeline of Egypt without which the tiny strip of arable land on either bank of the river and its loamy delta would become engulfed by the desert sands.
Similarly, tension between Syria and Turkey rose to near danger levels a few years ago over the distribution of the water of the Euphrates River, which flows through Iraq, Syria and Turkey.
"One critical challenge is water," said the Jordanian monarch. "From the snowy peaks of the Atlas Mountains to the Empty Quarter of the Arab Peninsula, most of our region's countries cannot meet the current water demands.
"As a region, if we do not plan how we will meet this most basic need, if we do not commit the necessary investments to resolve this problem, we will not be fighting for peace, we will be fighting for our lives," said Abdullah. "We need to rise to this challenge."
A witness to the king's testimony over water shortages was only a stone's throw from the convention center and easily visible to anyone who took a few minutes to venture onto the terrace facing the Dead Sea.
The sinking levels of the Dead Sea waters have authorities both in Jordan as well as in Israel seriously worried. The current rate at which the waters are receding is about 1 meter a year. During the 20th century the level of the Dead Sea dropped from about 390 meters below sea level in 1930 to 414 meters below sea level in 1999, with the average rate of fall accelerating in recent years. Today it stands at 418 meters below sea level.
Israel has for a number of years drawn up plans to construct a canal from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea with the aim of raising the water level of the Dead Sea, a project not without controversy.
With a population of 325 million across the Arab world -- and growing fast -- a region made up of 23 countries -- 22 Arab states plus Israel -- indeed, the need for water will only increase in the years to come. "It is larger than Europe, larger than Canada, larger than China and larger that the United States," Abdullah said of the Arab world.
Yet unlike Europe with its abundance of rivers and rainfall, the Middle East is a large region with few water resources and little rain. Some countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have turned to the sea for their freshwater supply. But desalination plants are expensive to build.
Further complicating the problem of water-sharing is the absence of peace in the region. Yet despite the explosive situation permeating the region, with fighting in Gaza, Iraq and Lebanon, the king believes it is important to "begin asking a new question: 'What about the day after peace?'"
"The time has come to stop thinking about peace as an end; an end to conflict, but as a beginning, a beginning of sweeping new opportunities and benefits for the people of this region," said Abdullah. "A region with ample, clean water in every home and a healthy environment that protects its people and its natural heritage."
But despite the king's well-placed optimism, until the day when his vision of a conflict-free Middle East becomes a reality, a lot of water will flow under the bridge. A lot of wasted water.
--
(e-mail: claude@upi.com)
Technology theft : Four Indicted Over WiBro Industrial Espionage
EDITORIAL from Korea Herald on May 24
Technology theft
Korea has become an industrial powerhouse in shipbuilding, home appliances, information technology, steelmaking, and to a lesser extent, automobiles. In many ways, Korea owes what it is to its costly research and development programs.
Korean corporations will have to continue to spend billions of won on research and development projects, in collaboration with government-funded research institutes when necessary, as they have done in the past. Otherwise, they will be forced out of the competition-driven market.
But much of the resources they allocate to research and development will go down the drain if they fail to protect the technologies they have developed from being stolen by their foreign rivals. Indeed, Korean corporations are increasingly becoming targets of industrial espionage. And almost all the culprits are those who were engaged in developing the technologies.
A case in point is the illegal transfer of trade secrets concerning automobile assembly. The law enforcement authorities recently arrested former and incumbent officials of Hyundai Motor Co. and its subsidiary, Kia Motors Corp., on charges of stealing the automakers' trade secrets and selling some of them to a Chinese business concern.
If all of the technologies were handed over to the Chinese company, the losses, according to one estimate, would have topped 4.7 trillion won by the end of 2010. Moreover, the technologies illegally obtained by the Chinese company would substantially reduce the period of time necessary to catch up with Hyundai and Kia.
A more serious case involved WiBro, a wireless broadband internet technology developed by a consortium of Korean companies and government-funded research institutes. The group, which spent 90 billion won and put 170 researchers on the 2004-05 project, stands to reap billions of dollars in the years ahead.
No wonder its trade secrets were a target of theft. The prosecution recently arrested four former and incumbent officials of POSDATA, a member of the consortium, on charges of stealing WiBro-related trade secrets. They allegedly made an abortive attempt to develop a new wireless internet technology based on the trade secrets at a company incorporated in the United States and sell it to U.S. business concerns. The potential losses for the next five years were estimated at 15 trillion won.
The two technology thefts were not isolated cases. Instead, industrial espionage has expanded to such an extent that it is now perceived by many to pose a threat not only to the security of the corporations involved, but to the entire nation. That is the reason why the theft of trade secrets for sale to foreign countries should be treated as an act little short of treason.
According to a report from the National Intelligence Service, the number of successful and foiled attempts to sell stolen technologies to foreign business concerns rose from 39 in 1999 to 237 last year. The damage from industrial espionage could be much larger than the numbers suggest, given the suspicion that so many trade secrets are covertly sold to foreign business concerns.
Nonetheless, the criminals involved are treated with kid gloves. In 2005, trial courts convicted 104 of the 130 people indicted. But only 11 were actually sent to prison. Reasons for leniency ranged from not being repeat offenders to benefits having not been realized. But would the judges have been as merciful if it had dawned on them that the crimes were little different from acts of treason?
But a severe punishment alone will not be enough to solve the problem of industrial espionage. Rewarding researchers adequately for their contributions will surely help cut down on the theft of trade secrets. But the ultimate responsibility lies with the corporations involved, that will have go the extra mile to protect their secrets.
(END)
The Seoul Central Prosecutor's Office on Sunday arrested three former and one current researcher with POSDATA on charges of attempting to smuggle WiBro technology developed by the company to the United States. Prosecutors plan to summon another three former researchers at POSDATA's lab in the U.S. on suspicion that they tried to set up a company with the same business line there and sell it to a U.S. telecom firm.
The group of researchers in Korea is suspected of taking technological data for WiBro handsets and base stations and the outcome of equipment tests since last October and handing them over to a former researcher at the U.S. lab identified as Kim. Prosecutors said if the technology had been leaked, it could have lost POSDATA some W15 trillion (US$1=W934) in export earnings over the next five years. POSDATA developed the technology by pouring W90 billion into research and development and employing 170 researchers.
WiBro is a super high-speed wireless Internet technology led by Korean companies like Samsung Electronics and KT. According to the prosecutors, Kim, who set up a rival U.S. firm, was planning to use the information he had smuggled out of Korea, develop it and sell his company to a U.S. telecom firm for W180 billion. They are also bringing charges over attempted poaching of about 30 more POSDATA researchers with high salaries.
The Ministry of Information and Communication estimates the value of the domestic WiBro service market at W8.1 trillion between 2006 and 2010. The world market is estimated at W24 trillion. The commercialization of WiBro will cause a production effects worth W24.7 trillion domestically for six years and create jobs for 270,000 people. The National Intelligence Service says the year 2002 saw only five industrial espionage cases, but that increased to 31 in 2006. The prevented damage increased from W200 billion in 2002 to W35.5 trillion in 2005.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
Technology theft
Korea has become an industrial powerhouse in shipbuilding, home appliances, information technology, steelmaking, and to a lesser extent, automobiles. In many ways, Korea owes what it is to its costly research and development programs.
Korean corporations will have to continue to spend billions of won on research and development projects, in collaboration with government-funded research institutes when necessary, as they have done in the past. Otherwise, they will be forced out of the competition-driven market.
But much of the resources they allocate to research and development will go down the drain if they fail to protect the technologies they have developed from being stolen by their foreign rivals. Indeed, Korean corporations are increasingly becoming targets of industrial espionage. And almost all the culprits are those who were engaged in developing the technologies.
A case in point is the illegal transfer of trade secrets concerning automobile assembly. The law enforcement authorities recently arrested former and incumbent officials of Hyundai Motor Co. and its subsidiary, Kia Motors Corp., on charges of stealing the automakers' trade secrets and selling some of them to a Chinese business concern.
If all of the technologies were handed over to the Chinese company, the losses, according to one estimate, would have topped 4.7 trillion won by the end of 2010. Moreover, the technologies illegally obtained by the Chinese company would substantially reduce the period of time necessary to catch up with Hyundai and Kia.
A more serious case involved WiBro, a wireless broadband internet technology developed by a consortium of Korean companies and government-funded research institutes. The group, which spent 90 billion won and put 170 researchers on the 2004-05 project, stands to reap billions of dollars in the years ahead.
No wonder its trade secrets were a target of theft. The prosecution recently arrested four former and incumbent officials of POSDATA, a member of the consortium, on charges of stealing WiBro-related trade secrets. They allegedly made an abortive attempt to develop a new wireless internet technology based on the trade secrets at a company incorporated in the United States and sell it to U.S. business concerns. The potential losses for the next five years were estimated at 15 trillion won.
The two technology thefts were not isolated cases. Instead, industrial espionage has expanded to such an extent that it is now perceived by many to pose a threat not only to the security of the corporations involved, but to the entire nation. That is the reason why the theft of trade secrets for sale to foreign countries should be treated as an act little short of treason.
According to a report from the National Intelligence Service, the number of successful and foiled attempts to sell stolen technologies to foreign business concerns rose from 39 in 1999 to 237 last year. The damage from industrial espionage could be much larger than the numbers suggest, given the suspicion that so many trade secrets are covertly sold to foreign business concerns.
Nonetheless, the criminals involved are treated with kid gloves. In 2005, trial courts convicted 104 of the 130 people indicted. But only 11 were actually sent to prison. Reasons for leniency ranged from not being repeat offenders to benefits having not been realized. But would the judges have been as merciful if it had dawned on them that the crimes were little different from acts of treason?
But a severe punishment alone will not be enough to solve the problem of industrial espionage. Rewarding researchers adequately for their contributions will surely help cut down on the theft of trade secrets. But the ultimate responsibility lies with the corporations involved, that will have go the extra mile to protect their secrets.
(END)
The Seoul Central Prosecutor's Office on Sunday arrested three former and one current researcher with POSDATA on charges of attempting to smuggle WiBro technology developed by the company to the United States. Prosecutors plan to summon another three former researchers at POSDATA's lab in the U.S. on suspicion that they tried to set up a company with the same business line there and sell it to a U.S. telecom firm.
The group of researchers in Korea is suspected of taking technological data for WiBro handsets and base stations and the outcome of equipment tests since last October and handing them over to a former researcher at the U.S. lab identified as Kim. Prosecutors said if the technology had been leaked, it could have lost POSDATA some W15 trillion (US$1=W934) in export earnings over the next five years. POSDATA developed the technology by pouring W90 billion into research and development and employing 170 researchers.
WiBro is a super high-speed wireless Internet technology led by Korean companies like Samsung Electronics and KT. According to the prosecutors, Kim, who set up a rival U.S. firm, was planning to use the information he had smuggled out of Korea, develop it and sell his company to a U.S. telecom firm for W180 billion. They are also bringing charges over attempted poaching of about 30 more POSDATA researchers with high salaries.
The Ministry of Information and Communication estimates the value of the domestic WiBro service market at W8.1 trillion between 2006 and 2010. The world market is estimated at W24 trillion. The commercialization of WiBro will cause a production effects worth W24.7 trillion domestically for six years and create jobs for 270,000 people. The National Intelligence Service says the year 2002 saw only five industrial espionage cases, but that increased to 31 in 2006. The prevented damage increased from W200 billion in 2002 to W35.5 trillion in 2005.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
India's growing corporate spy threat
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IE25Df01.html
By Indrajit Basu
KOLKATA - Several recent high-profile cases have brought to the surface a disturbing trend in the Indian corporate world: industrial espionage.
The targets are mostly multinational companies, but at times even large Indian firms become victims. The culprits are mostly foreign companies and smaller local firms trying to gain an edge on their competitors.
According to a survey conducted last year by the global consulting firm Ernst & Young, the corporate sector in India faces the highest threat of fraud, including espionage.
Another study, also conducted last year, by the Indian arm of the global consultancy firm KPMG, said: "Organizations today face a completely different set of challenges - globalization, rapidly evolving technology, rapid development in industry and business, risks and complexity of information and data management; the list is endless." KPMG said that in this changed scenario, the risks of fraud faced by organizations in India had increased manifold.
Neither spying nor the extraction of sensitive information using unfair means are new in India. However, such activity has largely been limited to government departments, defense establishments, and a few stray instances involving the business world.
"What has changed in recent years," said Ashwin Parikh of Ernst &Young, "is the involvement of the corporate sector, and the methods used. This practice of using students [for instance] to pick up competitors' information has become rather rampant now."
Parikh was referring to a case that was exposed recently in which a multinational bank in India, in the face of the dismal record of its portfolio-management services, hired a student from a premier business school at a huge salary to investigate the portfolio services of its competitors. The twist was that the student would not disclose his connections with the bank and pretend to be conducting independent research.
In about a month, the struggling bank had its competitors' marketing strategies not only for their portfolio-management schemes, but also for a few other competing products.
Other methods that have been exposed include hiring hackers to break into a company's management-information system, and a journalist employed by an Asia-based consultancy firm on behalf of another multinational bank to dig out sensitive information from a bank in the guise of a special feature.
In the most recent case, a US$200 million US-based water-treatment company, Purolite Corp, has sued an Indian engineering company, Thermax Ltd, which has a few ex-Purolite employees on its payroll. Purolite alleges that Thermax hired four of its erstwhile employees and gave them senior executive positions just for "stealing intellectual property". These employees, alleges Purolite, took with them proprietary technology and information, which were then used by Thermax to compete against Purolite.
It's easy these days
According to KPMG, a big reason corporate spying and fraud have increased in India is a lack of ethical values. There is a clear need for organizations and their employees to move proactively toward the creation of a more ethical workplace, KPMG says. Meanwhile Satish Maneshinde, a Mumbai-based criminal lawyer, says that "integrity is the cheapest commodity that can be purchased in India today".
But according to Raghu Raman, founder-director of the Mahindra Special Services Group, an information-security consultant, corporate espionage has increased over the past few years more because prying into someone else's information has become so easy.
"The information age, with its tools and technologies, has made it much easier to gather information and analyze intelligence," he said. "To get a proof of this, just [type] in the name of any CEO [chief executive officer] in a search engine and you will be amazed at the amount of information that becomes available to you.
"And this is just at the first level of information," said Raman. "Trained intelligence analysts can easily ferret out deeper information through masqueraded phone calls, interviews of employees, creating e-relationships with employees or joining social-networking sites frequented by them. Sometimes, in less than a few weeks, analysts could map the entire company, its core competitive advantages, including intellectual property, future strategies, human capital and the skeletons in its cupboards."
Corporate India is naive
The KPMG study indicates that most local companies are unaware of the fact that the greatest threat is from their own employees because they do not have adequate internal controls in place.
Most companies in India are perhaps aware that they might have been victims of some form of spying, data theft or fraud at least once, says Vijay Mukhi of the Foundation of Information Security and Technology, but are not aware of how to deal with it.
Raman said: "Companies that invest hundreds of thousands of dollars in firewalls and public key infrastructure forget that over 15% of their employees talk to headhunters and prospective new employers or competition.
KPMG added that "the maximum threat was perceived from the employees and the least from outside".
No dirty linen in public, please
According to Satish Maneshinde, one of the biggest reasons corporate espionage is increasing unchecked in the country is that few victims like to acknowledge the fact that their information system has been broken into. "The Indian legal system has a few pretty easy ways of tackling corporate espionage," he said, "but they are rarely used."
Raman says only 20% of corporate espionage cases are detected, of which a mere 20% gets reported while just 10% are solved.
Prevention is better than cure
But shouting out may not be the best policy to check fraud and corporate espionage, according to Ernst & Young.
"Fraud is expensive and disruptive, making prevention preferable to investigation and recovery," says the Ernst & Young study, adding: "Prevention and detection also make good business sense as they provide cost savings to organizations."
According to Mahindra Special Services, employees must form the organization's first line of defense and they should be made aware of threats. The other imperative is to think in terms of information security, not information-technology security.
"IT certainly needs to be secure, and the tools have their place in an organization," said Raman. "But it must be a part of the overall information security. Designing of robust processes and standard operating procedures such as classification of information and handling instructions for classified information [in all its forms] is an important part of this step."
Indrajit Basu is a Kolkata-based journalist.
By Indrajit Basu
KOLKATA - Several recent high-profile cases have brought to the surface a disturbing trend in the Indian corporate world: industrial espionage.
The targets are mostly multinational companies, but at times even large Indian firms become victims. The culprits are mostly foreign companies and smaller local firms trying to gain an edge on their competitors.
According to a survey conducted last year by the global consulting firm Ernst & Young, the corporate sector in India faces the highest threat of fraud, including espionage.
Another study, also conducted last year, by the Indian arm of the global consultancy firm KPMG, said: "Organizations today face a completely different set of challenges - globalization, rapidly evolving technology, rapid development in industry and business, risks and complexity of information and data management; the list is endless." KPMG said that in this changed scenario, the risks of fraud faced by organizations in India had increased manifold.
Neither spying nor the extraction of sensitive information using unfair means are new in India. However, such activity has largely been limited to government departments, defense establishments, and a few stray instances involving the business world.
"What has changed in recent years," said Ashwin Parikh of Ernst &Young, "is the involvement of the corporate sector, and the methods used. This practice of using students [for instance] to pick up competitors' information has become rather rampant now."
Parikh was referring to a case that was exposed recently in which a multinational bank in India, in the face of the dismal record of its portfolio-management services, hired a student from a premier business school at a huge salary to investigate the portfolio services of its competitors. The twist was that the student would not disclose his connections with the bank and pretend to be conducting independent research.
In about a month, the struggling bank had its competitors' marketing strategies not only for their portfolio-management schemes, but also for a few other competing products.
Other methods that have been exposed include hiring hackers to break into a company's management-information system, and a journalist employed by an Asia-based consultancy firm on behalf of another multinational bank to dig out sensitive information from a bank in the guise of a special feature.
In the most recent case, a US$200 million US-based water-treatment company, Purolite Corp, has sued an Indian engineering company, Thermax Ltd, which has a few ex-Purolite employees on its payroll. Purolite alleges that Thermax hired four of its erstwhile employees and gave them senior executive positions just for "stealing intellectual property". These employees, alleges Purolite, took with them proprietary technology and information, which were then used by Thermax to compete against Purolite.
It's easy these days
According to KPMG, a big reason corporate spying and fraud have increased in India is a lack of ethical values. There is a clear need for organizations and their employees to move proactively toward the creation of a more ethical workplace, KPMG says. Meanwhile Satish Maneshinde, a Mumbai-based criminal lawyer, says that "integrity is the cheapest commodity that can be purchased in India today".
But according to Raghu Raman, founder-director of the Mahindra Special Services Group, an information-security consultant, corporate espionage has increased over the past few years more because prying into someone else's information has become so easy.
"The information age, with its tools and technologies, has made it much easier to gather information and analyze intelligence," he said. "To get a proof of this, just [type] in the name of any CEO [chief executive officer] in a search engine and you will be amazed at the amount of information that becomes available to you.
"And this is just at the first level of information," said Raman. "Trained intelligence analysts can easily ferret out deeper information through masqueraded phone calls, interviews of employees, creating e-relationships with employees or joining social-networking sites frequented by them. Sometimes, in less than a few weeks, analysts could map the entire company, its core competitive advantages, including intellectual property, future strategies, human capital and the skeletons in its cupboards."
Corporate India is naive
The KPMG study indicates that most local companies are unaware of the fact that the greatest threat is from their own employees because they do not have adequate internal controls in place.
Most companies in India are perhaps aware that they might have been victims of some form of spying, data theft or fraud at least once, says Vijay Mukhi of the Foundation of Information Security and Technology, but are not aware of how to deal with it.
Raman said: "Companies that invest hundreds of thousands of dollars in firewalls and public key infrastructure forget that over 15% of their employees talk to headhunters and prospective new employers or competition.
KPMG added that "the maximum threat was perceived from the employees and the least from outside".
No dirty linen in public, please
According to Satish Maneshinde, one of the biggest reasons corporate espionage is increasing unchecked in the country is that few victims like to acknowledge the fact that their information system has been broken into. "The Indian legal system has a few pretty easy ways of tackling corporate espionage," he said, "but they are rarely used."
Raman says only 20% of corporate espionage cases are detected, of which a mere 20% gets reported while just 10% are solved.
Prevention is better than cure
But shouting out may not be the best policy to check fraud and corporate espionage, according to Ernst & Young.
"Fraud is expensive and disruptive, making prevention preferable to investigation and recovery," says the Ernst & Young study, adding: "Prevention and detection also make good business sense as they provide cost savings to organizations."
According to Mahindra Special Services, employees must form the organization's first line of defense and they should be made aware of threats. The other imperative is to think in terms of information security, not information-technology security.
"IT certainly needs to be secure, and the tools have their place in an organization," said Raman. "But it must be a part of the overall information security. Designing of robust processes and standard operating procedures such as classification of information and handling instructions for classified information [in all its forms] is an important part of this step."
Indrajit Basu is a Kolkata-based journalist.
CANADA: Spying cast in negative light: CSIS head
http://www.thestar.com/News/article/217600
May 25, 2007 04:30 AM
Richard Brennan
OTTAWA BUREAU
OTTAWA–CSIS director Jim Judd says all too often secretive intelligence agencies like his are better known for what they did wrong rather than what they did right.
"The success of significant terrorist actions in the United States, Canada, Europe and elsewhere around the world ... are also cast as intelligence failures," Judd said in a luncheon speech yesterday. While Judd did not mention the 1985 Air India bombing specifically, his remarks come as the apparent failures of the then-newly formed Canadian Security Intelligence Service are under a microscope at an inquiry into Canada's worst act of terrorism.
"It has been argued that intelligence services generally have a spotty track record on credibility and predictability. Their crystal balls have too often seemed to be more cloudy than clear. They are sometimes better known for what they allegedly got wrong rather than for what they got right," Judd said.
He said examples of major events the intelligence community failed to predict included the end of the Cold War and the fall of the shah of Iran.
The inquiry into the June 23, 1985 terrorist bombing of Air India Flight 182 off the coast of Ireland, killing 329 people, has heard evidence about the apparent inability of senior CSIS officials to fully understand the implications of Sikh extremism in Canada, which is believed to have led to the tragedy.
Yesterday, the inquiry heard it wasn't until after Flight 182 was destroyed by a terrorist bomb that CSIS agents realized the lead suspect had likely tested an explosive in a wooded area near Duncan, B.C., just days before.
"The significance of the Duncan blast came home to me at that moment," said former Vancouver-based Canadian Security Intelligence Service agent Ray Kobzey. CSIS is not a police agency and has no power to arrest, but it seeks and obtains warrants to collect information and permission to set up surveillance of suspects who might be a threat to national security.
CSIS agents who tailed Sikh extremist Talwinder Singh Parmar on June 4, 1985, to a wooded area near Duncan reported they heard an "explosion" that sounded like it came from a large handgun, probably a Smith & Wesson 357 magnum.
Since it was believed to be a gun, CSIS agents did not search for bomb debris, but a search of the area by RCMP investigators after Flight 182 was downed found wire and other materials associated with a bomb.
Kobzey testified he returned from a sailing vacation just hours before the flight was blown up.
When he learned what happened, "my reply to that was that expletive Parmar he did it, they did it. That was my gut feeling."
Parmar, once described as the most radical and dangerous Sikh in the country, became the prime suspect in the Air India bombing.
He was later killed in a shootout with police in India.
Kobzey said he recognized the growing Sikh threat in B.C. and so found it "unacceptable" and "unreasonable" that it took five months to get a warrant to monitor Parmar, including wiretaps.
"It definitely hampered us gaining knowledge of the target," Kobzey said.
He testified he also ran into a bureaucratic roadblock getting surveillance for Parmar approved.
It took two months because, as with the warrant application, it was considered a low priority, even though Parmar or his associates were threatening to kill Hindus.
May 25, 2007 04:30 AM
Richard Brennan
OTTAWA BUREAU
OTTAWA–CSIS director Jim Judd says all too often secretive intelligence agencies like his are better known for what they did wrong rather than what they did right.
"The success of significant terrorist actions in the United States, Canada, Europe and elsewhere around the world ... are also cast as intelligence failures," Judd said in a luncheon speech yesterday. While Judd did not mention the 1985 Air India bombing specifically, his remarks come as the apparent failures of the then-newly formed Canadian Security Intelligence Service are under a microscope at an inquiry into Canada's worst act of terrorism.
"It has been argued that intelligence services generally have a spotty track record on credibility and predictability. Their crystal balls have too often seemed to be more cloudy than clear. They are sometimes better known for what they allegedly got wrong rather than for what they got right," Judd said.
He said examples of major events the intelligence community failed to predict included the end of the Cold War and the fall of the shah of Iran.
The inquiry into the June 23, 1985 terrorist bombing of Air India Flight 182 off the coast of Ireland, killing 329 people, has heard evidence about the apparent inability of senior CSIS officials to fully understand the implications of Sikh extremism in Canada, which is believed to have led to the tragedy.
Yesterday, the inquiry heard it wasn't until after Flight 182 was destroyed by a terrorist bomb that CSIS agents realized the lead suspect had likely tested an explosive in a wooded area near Duncan, B.C., just days before.
"The significance of the Duncan blast came home to me at that moment," said former Vancouver-based Canadian Security Intelligence Service agent Ray Kobzey. CSIS is not a police agency and has no power to arrest, but it seeks and obtains warrants to collect information and permission to set up surveillance of suspects who might be a threat to national security.
CSIS agents who tailed Sikh extremist Talwinder Singh Parmar on June 4, 1985, to a wooded area near Duncan reported they heard an "explosion" that sounded like it came from a large handgun, probably a Smith & Wesson 357 magnum.
Since it was believed to be a gun, CSIS agents did not search for bomb debris, but a search of the area by RCMP investigators after Flight 182 was downed found wire and other materials associated with a bomb.
Kobzey testified he returned from a sailing vacation just hours before the flight was blown up.
When he learned what happened, "my reply to that was that expletive Parmar he did it, they did it. That was my gut feeling."
Parmar, once described as the most radical and dangerous Sikh in the country, became the prime suspect in the Air India bombing.
He was later killed in a shootout with police in India.
Kobzey said he recognized the growing Sikh threat in B.C. and so found it "unacceptable" and "unreasonable" that it took five months to get a warrant to monitor Parmar, including wiretaps.
"It definitely hampered us gaining knowledge of the target," Kobzey said.
He testified he also ran into a bureaucratic roadblock getting surveillance for Parmar approved.
It took two months because, as with the warrant application, it was considered a low priority, even though Parmar or his associates were threatening to kill Hindus.
Pakistani UN Peacekeepers sell guns for gold
Thu May 24, 2007 4:16 pm (PST)
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/article2578497.ece
UN troops traded guns for gold with militias, says report
By David Usborne in New York
Published: 24 May 2007
Scandal is engulfing the United Nations once again after allegations
that peacekeepers stationed in Congo traded guns for gold with
militia groups that they were meant to be disarming. Meanwhile, a
trial got under way in New York of a former UN official accused of
taking bribes.
The UN mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) said in a
statement that an investigation into the guns-for-gold claims had
begun and was continuing, adding that it had a "zero-tolerance policy
for misconduct and will remain vigilant in preventing egregious and
unacceptable behaviour".
At the heart of the investigation are allegations that, in 2005,
Pakistani soldiers sent by the UN to restore peace in Ituri province
around the north-eastern mining town of Mongbwalu began returning
guns to militia groups, receiving gold in exchange.
Witnesses confirmed the existence of the trade to the BBC. One
Congolese officer "repeatedly saw militia who had been disarmed one
day but the next day would become rearmed again. The information he
could obtain was always the same, that it would be the Pakistani
battalion giving arms back to the militia."
Human Rights Watch said it had its own information on the case which
it had passed to the UN. "Pakistani officers were involved in illegal
smuggling of between $2m-$5m in gold out of Ituri. We have very solid
information on this," said Anneke Van Woudenberg, a researcher with
the group.
The Congo force of almost 18,000 soldiers is the largest UN
deployment in the world. It has been credited with helping the
country's transition to a fragile democracy after a vicious civil war
from 1998 to 2003 that killed as many as four million people and drew
in forces from several neighbouring countries.
The UN has been accused of burying the initial findings of the
investigation to avoid embarrassing Pakistan, the largest
peacekeeping troop contributor. The UN's special representative in
the DRC, William Swing, emphatically denied the guns-for-gold claims.
A spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry in Islamabad, Tasnim Aslam,
said yesterday that it had been informed by the UN peacekeeping
department, the DPKO, on Tuesday of the media exposure of the
case. "The DPKO also informed our mission that, at this stage, these
were mere allegations, which have to be looked into," she said. "On
our part, our relevant authorities will look into the matter to
ascertain facts."
The flow of UN scandals never seems to end. Recent years have seen
the inquiry into corruption in the oil-for-food programme in Iraq
before the toppling of Saddam Hussein, the resignation of Ruud
Lubbers as head of the UN High Commission for Refugees following
allegations of sexual harassment and revelations in 2005 of
peacekeepers trading food for sexual favours with women in Congo.
This week, meanwhile, saw the start of the fraud trial in New York of
Sanjaya Bahel, a native of India who stands accused of taking serial
bribes from a Florida businessman while he was head of the UN's
Commodity Procurement Section from 1999 to 2003.
Jurors have heard testimony from Nishan Kohli, the son of the
businessman, Nanak Kohli, that Mr Bahel helped secure $100m in
contracts from him in return for serial favours including a heavily
discounted luxury apartment in New York and cash.
On Tuesday, Mr Kohli went further saying that other UN workers
associated with Mr Bahel had been treated to nights in a hotel room
with prostitutes for their favours.
Mr Kohli said the relationship between Mr Bahel and his father became
so close that he was was "effectively a partner in our companies in
terms of how we operated and executed contracts".
Mr Bahel has pleaded not guilty to the charges.
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/article2578497.ece
UN troops traded guns for gold with militias, says report
By David Usborne in New York
Published: 24 May 2007
Scandal is engulfing the United Nations once again after allegations
that peacekeepers stationed in Congo traded guns for gold with
militia groups that they were meant to be disarming. Meanwhile, a
trial got under way in New York of a former UN official accused of
taking bribes.
The UN mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) said in a
statement that an investigation into the guns-for-gold claims had
begun and was continuing, adding that it had a "zero-tolerance policy
for misconduct and will remain vigilant in preventing egregious and
unacceptable behaviour".
At the heart of the investigation are allegations that, in 2005,
Pakistani soldiers sent by the UN to restore peace in Ituri province
around the north-eastern mining town of Mongbwalu began returning
guns to militia groups, receiving gold in exchange.
Witnesses confirmed the existence of the trade to the BBC. One
Congolese officer "repeatedly saw militia who had been disarmed one
day but the next day would become rearmed again. The information he
could obtain was always the same, that it would be the Pakistani
battalion giving arms back to the militia."
Human Rights Watch said it had its own information on the case which
it had passed to the UN. "Pakistani officers were involved in illegal
smuggling of between $2m-$5m in gold out of Ituri. We have very solid
information on this," said Anneke Van Woudenberg, a researcher with
the group.
The Congo force of almost 18,000 soldiers is the largest UN
deployment in the world. It has been credited with helping the
country's transition to a fragile democracy after a vicious civil war
from 1998 to 2003 that killed as many as four million people and drew
in forces from several neighbouring countries.
The UN has been accused of burying the initial findings of the
investigation to avoid embarrassing Pakistan, the largest
peacekeeping troop contributor. The UN's special representative in
the DRC, William Swing, emphatically denied the guns-for-gold claims.
A spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry in Islamabad, Tasnim Aslam,
said yesterday that it had been informed by the UN peacekeeping
department, the DPKO, on Tuesday of the media exposure of the
case. "The DPKO also informed our mission that, at this stage, these
were mere allegations, which have to be looked into," she said. "On
our part, our relevant authorities will look into the matter to
ascertain facts."
The flow of UN scandals never seems to end. Recent years have seen
the inquiry into corruption in the oil-for-food programme in Iraq
before the toppling of Saddam Hussein, the resignation of Ruud
Lubbers as head of the UN High Commission for Refugees following
allegations of sexual harassment and revelations in 2005 of
peacekeepers trading food for sexual favours with women in Congo.
This week, meanwhile, saw the start of the fraud trial in New York of
Sanjaya Bahel, a native of India who stands accused of taking serial
bribes from a Florida businessman while he was head of the UN's
Commodity Procurement Section from 1999 to 2003.
Jurors have heard testimony from Nishan Kohli, the son of the
businessman, Nanak Kohli, that Mr Bahel helped secure $100m in
contracts from him in return for serial favours including a heavily
discounted luxury apartment in New York and cash.
On Tuesday, Mr Kohli went further saying that other UN workers
associated with Mr Bahel had been treated to nights in a hotel room
with prostitutes for their favours.
Mr Kohli said the relationship between Mr Bahel and his father became
so close that he was was "effectively a partner in our companies in
terms of how we operated and executed contracts".
Mr Bahel has pleaded not guilty to the charges.
Agnivesh a clone of Dera Chief?
By Pemendra agrawal
Is Agnivesh himself terrorist with saffron turbon? Is he a clone Dera of Chief Gurmeert Ram Rahim Singh? Spokes person of Dera, Dr.Aditya says that they have no religion. Then why Dera chief became the duplicate of Guru Gobind Singh? Does RSS wrong to accuse Dera chief of having links with Maoists? Agnivesh says that he has no religion. Then why he covers his brilliant brainless head by saffron trurbon?
They are atheist communists. Terrorists in saffron - Swami Agnivesh wrote in Indianexpress in Aug 19, 03.
First Congress evokes Dera Sacha Sauda to hurt the sentiments of Sikhs as they evoke Bhindrawala at the time of Indira Gandhi. Dera Chief did a copy of Guru Gobind Singh to throw the hurdles before the SAD (B) and BJP alliance government as in the past Zail Singh did. Now Sonia Gandhi is in the role of Indira and Manmohan Singh in the role of Zail Singh. Sonia Gandhi deputed a team in the leadership of fake secular atheist Agnivesh and a Christian preast to the disputed fractions. After adding fuel she wants to throw water cannons now by trying to get Mafinama of Dera Chief through Agnivesh. This is a dangerous game to play with fire. Dera tries to bargain with the Central and Pb State Governments for withdrawing the cases against the chief of Dera. Dera Chief bargained this in the previous assembly election also with the Congress by supporting it.
There is a theory in Economics. If a country faces unemployment problem, then instruct the pulic for digging the pits and filling them. Hands should not be empty. Give them job.
Sonia behind Punjab violence: SGPC
Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee (SGPC) president Avtar Singh Makkar said the sect head had refused to tender an apology which only strengthened the belief of Sikhs that Congress president Sonia Gandhi was allegedly conniving against the community with the help of Haryana's Congress government to remind the black days of the past militancy in the Punjab. The executive committee warned the Congress against trying to politicise this religious issue. The SGPC president said executive members had also appealed to heads of other religions to side with Akal Takht on the issue. SGPC directly attacked Sonia Gandhi to say that she interferes the religious matter of Sikhs to disturb the peace and harmony in Punjab. Resolution on this regard is also passed by the SGPC. Resolution said that violence of May 14 in Bathinda between Dera supporters and Sikh sangats was due to the conspiracy of Congress.
Fuel to Dera Controvercy from Lahore, Joint Mechanism
TOI reports:Pakistan has rushed to fish in troubled Punjab waters in the wake of the Sikh-Dera Sacha Sauda feud, with Babbar Khalsa International chief Wadhawan Singh Babbar, operating from Lahore under ISI patronage, seeking to stoke violence in the state. Government sources in Punjab and here disclosed that Wadhawan, who is on India's 'Most Wanted' list, has been in touch with radical elements in the Sikh community at a time when the Dera fire has been raging. They also said that Wadhawan had worked on the radical Sikh priest whose Gurudwara near Talwandi Sabo in Bathinda was the catalyst for setting off the clash with the Dera over advertisements featuring its chief, Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh, attired as Guru Gobind Singh.
Agnivesh led team represents Sonia?
Pointing towards the mass support that their proposed march had get support, Swami Agnivesh informed that the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, had written a letter urging them and all others wielding religious authority ''to unite people in reinforcing foundational values of compassion, tolerance, secularism and democracy''.
Ms. Gandhi has said that "an all out effort needs to be made to restore normalcy in Gujarat to make the displaced and traumatised people feel secure and valued. The larger task is to substitute the politics of cruelty with the politics of compassion. This is a task in which all those who are spiritually sensitive have a role to play.''
Why first Sikh PM and his 'Yes madam' Sonia play the dirty game behind the door? Truth has been known by the SGPC because Sikhs are the victims of 1984 riots. They know th villain of Indira's emergency Sonia's loyalist biographer of Teresa Navin Chwla who is made Election Comminoner to conduct the 2009 election as a Chief Election Commissioner for the victory of Congress by hook or by crook.
Rajiv National and Sadbhavna award Award to Agnivesh
On Aug 20, 2004 Agnivesh and Madari Moideen have been honored with the 12th Rajiv Gandhi National Award of Rs 1.25 lakh each. The recipients of "Rajiv Gandhi National Sadbhavana Award", Madari Moideen and Swami Agnivesh being congratulated by the Congress President Sonia Gandhi and the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, in New Delhi on August 20, 2004 Teesat also got this award for her Anti-Indianess acts.
Is Saffroniation of Agnivesh means sanyas?
"We welcome the decision taken by the United Progressive Alliance government to re-examine the changes made by the previous government in the NCERT textbooks, but we would like to avoid calling it desaffronisation," Agnivesh said. Saffron colour is symbolic of sanyas (ascetisicm) and is also an integral part of our Indian identity, being one of the colours of our national flag," Agnivesh told.
Is his sanyas means to get pleasure to read in the NCERT IGNOU books:
Students are being taught by Gandhi National Open University (IGNOU) that Lord Shiva was bhogvilasi and he used to sexually assault the wives of other Gods. The book claims that Goddess Durga used to drink wine. There are also various other derogatory remarks against our God, national heroes and saints in the books.
What type of Sanyasi is he?
He was going to contest against Atalji from Lucknow in 2004. Following is a piece of that time interview:
Have you finally decided to fight against Vajpayee in Lucknow?
Yes. I have made a firm decision.
But your chances of victory are very low.
I will defeat him. Lucknow has a sizeable Muslim population. Moreover, in the 1999 election, Atal's earlier margin of victory in 1996 was considerably lowered by the then Congress candidate Karan Singh.
But since you are a Sanyasi, Muslims might consider you a rabid Hindu...
This is nonsense. My secular credentials are well known. Since I am a Sanyasi, I have no religious identification.
Father Frederick and Agnivesh
In peace process drama as hyper linked by media, Agnivesh was with a Christian Priest Father Frederick. Fredrick came on May 23 at the studio of Janmat channel for discussion with other two Sikhs. He cunningly asked where is the proof that the dress which Dera Chief wore was the dress of Guru Gobind Singh? The same argument has been given by the Dera side. In reply other Sikhs asked Fredric the proof of Christ photo? How could he prove that that photo was of Christ?
There are so many clones of Ram Rahim Singh
After considering all times of thoughts parents of us including Narshimhan Ram (N ram), Pravin Swamy, Swamy Agnivesh and Teesta gave us name.
Why are we not fulfilling the wishes of our parents? Why is N Ram not Ram and Praveen Swamy not Swamy? Swamy Aginivesh originally of Bilaspur (Chhattisgarh) is against the Hinduism. All they go against Hinduism and Hindutva but want to be seen as Hindu to follow Sonia Gandhi to deceive the people.
Union Minister Vayalar Ravi's son plans to take the purification ceremony held at Guruvayoor temple to the court, reports say. The purification ceremony is said to have taken place after the minister's son Ravi Krishna failed to produce a certificate to prove his religion as Hindu. Temle has its own rule due to that priest can accept only offerings of the Hindus.
Why not Minister's son says that he is Hindu? Why does he deceive himself and the people? Why they follow Gandhis. Rajiv Gandhi's drawing room had photo of only one religious head and that was 'Christ'. Why had he allergy with Hindu religious heads?
Non Hindus are secular but Hindu org are communal for agnivesh
Speaking on 'Social spirituality' at a public meeting held in connection with the 12th biennial conference of the Students Christian Movement of India (SCMI) here today, Swami Agnivesh said that the fundamentalism and fascism in the best interests of the country. For him SCMI and Christian Sonia Gandhi & Co. are the seculars.
Agnivesh on Mother Teresa as Navin Chwla:
"Not long ago, Mother Teresa was vilified as a non-Indian, a
foreigner. Responding to this calculated calumny, the Mother, in a
spirit of enlightened benevolence, offered a distinction that is
relevant to the present instance. ''I am not an Indian by chance,''
she said, ''but an Indian by choice.''
Pt Nehru said that he was born accidently as a Hindu. It means otherwise he was aagainst Hinduism and Hindutva.
These are the examples of 'ulta pultas' who ruin our culture and the unity of our country.
Agnivesh on Christianity and conversion
"The world over, the profound message of social justice symbolized by
the birth of Jesus Christ is being overtaken by consumerism. And that
is what you're getting to see here as well," said Swami Agnivesh, a fake Hindu coving his brainless head with saffron turbon.
Story of two Heros of Chhattisagrh in Delhi
Abhishek Verma accused in War Room Leak is the son of a writer poet, journalist and former Congress Rajya Sabha Member and Hindi tutor of Rajiv Gandhi Srikant Verma and Veena, also an MP. He was also appointed General Secretary of the All India Congress Committee besides spokesperson. Originaly he was the resident of Bilaspur of Chhattisgarh. He was the adopted son of Kabirpathi late Mini Mata.
Another hero of Bilapur is Agnivesh as he called himself Swami Agnivesh.
www.newsanalysisindia.com/
Is Agnivesh himself terrorist with saffron turbon? Is he a clone Dera of Chief Gurmeert Ram Rahim Singh? Spokes person of Dera, Dr.Aditya says that they have no religion. Then why Dera chief became the duplicate of Guru Gobind Singh? Does RSS wrong to accuse Dera chief of having links with Maoists? Agnivesh says that he has no religion. Then why he covers his brilliant brainless head by saffron trurbon?
They are atheist communists. Terrorists in saffron - Swami Agnivesh wrote in Indianexpress in Aug 19, 03.
First Congress evokes Dera Sacha Sauda to hurt the sentiments of Sikhs as they evoke Bhindrawala at the time of Indira Gandhi. Dera Chief did a copy of Guru Gobind Singh to throw the hurdles before the SAD (B) and BJP alliance government as in the past Zail Singh did. Now Sonia Gandhi is in the role of Indira and Manmohan Singh in the role of Zail Singh. Sonia Gandhi deputed a team in the leadership of fake secular atheist Agnivesh and a Christian preast to the disputed fractions. After adding fuel she wants to throw water cannons now by trying to get Mafinama of Dera Chief through Agnivesh. This is a dangerous game to play with fire. Dera tries to bargain with the Central and Pb State Governments for withdrawing the cases against the chief of Dera. Dera Chief bargained this in the previous assembly election also with the Congress by supporting it.
There is a theory in Economics. If a country faces unemployment problem, then instruct the pulic for digging the pits and filling them. Hands should not be empty. Give them job.
Sonia behind Punjab violence: SGPC
Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee (SGPC) president Avtar Singh Makkar said the sect head had refused to tender an apology which only strengthened the belief of Sikhs that Congress president Sonia Gandhi was allegedly conniving against the community with the help of Haryana's Congress government to remind the black days of the past militancy in the Punjab. The executive committee warned the Congress against trying to politicise this religious issue. The SGPC president said executive members had also appealed to heads of other religions to side with Akal Takht on the issue. SGPC directly attacked Sonia Gandhi to say that she interferes the religious matter of Sikhs to disturb the peace and harmony in Punjab. Resolution on this regard is also passed by the SGPC. Resolution said that violence of May 14 in Bathinda between Dera supporters and Sikh sangats was due to the conspiracy of Congress.
Fuel to Dera Controvercy from Lahore, Joint Mechanism
TOI reports:Pakistan has rushed to fish in troubled Punjab waters in the wake of the Sikh-Dera Sacha Sauda feud, with Babbar Khalsa International chief Wadhawan Singh Babbar, operating from Lahore under ISI patronage, seeking to stoke violence in the state. Government sources in Punjab and here disclosed that Wadhawan, who is on India's 'Most Wanted' list, has been in touch with radical elements in the Sikh community at a time when the Dera fire has been raging. They also said that Wadhawan had worked on the radical Sikh priest whose Gurudwara near Talwandi Sabo in Bathinda was the catalyst for setting off the clash with the Dera over advertisements featuring its chief, Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh, attired as Guru Gobind Singh.
Agnivesh led team represents Sonia?
Pointing towards the mass support that their proposed march had get support, Swami Agnivesh informed that the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, had written a letter urging them and all others wielding religious authority ''to unite people in reinforcing foundational values of compassion, tolerance, secularism and democracy''.
Ms. Gandhi has said that "an all out effort needs to be made to restore normalcy in Gujarat to make the displaced and traumatised people feel secure and valued. The larger task is to substitute the politics of cruelty with the politics of compassion. This is a task in which all those who are spiritually sensitive have a role to play.''
Why first Sikh PM and his 'Yes madam' Sonia play the dirty game behind the door? Truth has been known by the SGPC because Sikhs are the victims of 1984 riots. They know th villain of Indira's emergency Sonia's loyalist biographer of Teresa Navin Chwla who is made Election Comminoner to conduct the 2009 election as a Chief Election Commissioner for the victory of Congress by hook or by crook.
Rajiv National and Sadbhavna award Award to Agnivesh
On Aug 20, 2004 Agnivesh and Madari Moideen have been honored with the 12th Rajiv Gandhi National Award of Rs 1.25 lakh each. The recipients of "Rajiv Gandhi National Sadbhavana Award", Madari Moideen and Swami Agnivesh being congratulated by the Congress President Sonia Gandhi and the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, in New Delhi on August 20, 2004 Teesat also got this award for her Anti-Indianess acts.
Is Saffroniation of Agnivesh means sanyas?
"We welcome the decision taken by the United Progressive Alliance government to re-examine the changes made by the previous government in the NCERT textbooks, but we would like to avoid calling it desaffronisation," Agnivesh said. Saffron colour is symbolic of sanyas (ascetisicm) and is also an integral part of our Indian identity, being one of the colours of our national flag," Agnivesh told.
Is his sanyas means to get pleasure to read in the NCERT IGNOU books:
Students are being taught by Gandhi National Open University (IGNOU) that Lord Shiva was bhogvilasi and he used to sexually assault the wives of other Gods. The book claims that Goddess Durga used to drink wine. There are also various other derogatory remarks against our God, national heroes and saints in the books.
What type of Sanyasi is he?
He was going to contest against Atalji from Lucknow in 2004. Following is a piece of that time interview:
Have you finally decided to fight against Vajpayee in Lucknow?
Yes. I have made a firm decision.
But your chances of victory are very low.
I will defeat him. Lucknow has a sizeable Muslim population. Moreover, in the 1999 election, Atal's earlier margin of victory in 1996 was considerably lowered by the then Congress candidate Karan Singh.
But since you are a Sanyasi, Muslims might consider you a rabid Hindu...
This is nonsense. My secular credentials are well known. Since I am a Sanyasi, I have no religious identification.
Father Frederick and Agnivesh
In peace process drama as hyper linked by media, Agnivesh was with a Christian Priest Father Frederick. Fredrick came on May 23 at the studio of Janmat channel for discussion with other two Sikhs. He cunningly asked where is the proof that the dress which Dera Chief wore was the dress of Guru Gobind Singh? The same argument has been given by the Dera side. In reply other Sikhs asked Fredric the proof of Christ photo? How could he prove that that photo was of Christ?
There are so many clones of Ram Rahim Singh
After considering all times of thoughts parents of us including Narshimhan Ram (N ram), Pravin Swamy, Swamy Agnivesh and Teesta gave us name.
Why are we not fulfilling the wishes of our parents? Why is N Ram not Ram and Praveen Swamy not Swamy? Swamy Aginivesh originally of Bilaspur (Chhattisgarh) is against the Hinduism. All they go against Hinduism and Hindutva but want to be seen as Hindu to follow Sonia Gandhi to deceive the people.
Union Minister Vayalar Ravi's son plans to take the purification ceremony held at Guruvayoor temple to the court, reports say. The purification ceremony is said to have taken place after the minister's son Ravi Krishna failed to produce a certificate to prove his religion as Hindu. Temle has its own rule due to that priest can accept only offerings of the Hindus.
Why not Minister's son says that he is Hindu? Why does he deceive himself and the people? Why they follow Gandhis. Rajiv Gandhi's drawing room had photo of only one religious head and that was 'Christ'. Why had he allergy with Hindu religious heads?
Non Hindus are secular but Hindu org are communal for agnivesh
Speaking on 'Social spirituality' at a public meeting held in connection with the 12th biennial conference of the Students Christian Movement of India (SCMI) here today, Swami Agnivesh said that the fundamentalism and fascism in the best interests of the country. For him SCMI and Christian Sonia Gandhi & Co. are the seculars.
Agnivesh on Mother Teresa as Navin Chwla:
"Not long ago, Mother Teresa was vilified as a non-Indian, a
foreigner. Responding to this calculated calumny, the Mother, in a
spirit of enlightened benevolence, offered a distinction that is
relevant to the present instance. ''I am not an Indian by chance,''
she said, ''but an Indian by choice.''
Pt Nehru said that he was born accidently as a Hindu. It means otherwise he was aagainst Hinduism and Hindutva.
These are the examples of 'ulta pultas' who ruin our culture and the unity of our country.
Agnivesh on Christianity and conversion
"The world over, the profound message of social justice symbolized by
the birth of Jesus Christ is being overtaken by consumerism. And that
is what you're getting to see here as well," said Swami Agnivesh, a fake Hindu coving his brainless head with saffron turbon.
Story of two Heros of Chhattisagrh in Delhi
Abhishek Verma accused in War Room Leak is the son of a writer poet, journalist and former Congress Rajya Sabha Member and Hindi tutor of Rajiv Gandhi Srikant Verma and Veena, also an MP. He was also appointed General Secretary of the All India Congress Committee besides spokesperson. Originaly he was the resident of Bilaspur of Chhattisgarh. He was the adopted son of Kabirpathi late Mini Mata.
Another hero of Bilapur is Agnivesh as he called himself Swami Agnivesh.
www.newsanalysisindia.com/
Tatya Tope Dynasty vs Nehru Gandhi Dynasty
Tatya Tope was hanged by Briitishers so his family members are now struggling to feed their stomach by breads. His heir residing in Kanpur could not get pention even after giving the bribe. Due to the poverty daughters could not get higher education. Union State Home Minister represents Knapur. His cheeks are red as grape wine. Even Antonia Maino of Italy came in India and became Sonia Gandhi to rule India from the back door.
We have celebrated the 150th anniversary of the first freedom war. Tarun Vijay rightly wrote in TO: It's a shame to see how the 1857 150th anniversary has been turned into a sham sarkari jholawala function devoid of any life and vibrancy. In fact in the whole melee Richard Gere and Shilpa Shetty got more coverage than the revolutionaries whose martyrdom we were supposed to recollect and tell our children "look this is how we got our Independence".
Veer Savarkar was sent to kalapani so his IITian kin is spending life on road. Mughal begum, Lives in penury in a slum. Beyond Nehru Gandhi dynasty no India is for Congress. Lal Bahadur Shstri was done with in 13 months which Nehru could not do with in 13 years of his rule. Original Gandhi Mahatma was mahatma, so not a single member of his family is in the parliament.Where are heirs of Subhash, Tilak, Bhagat Singh?
Motilal Nehru was elected as Congress President in 1919 and 1920. When in 1929, Nehru handed over the Congress presidency to Jawaharlal (Jawaharlal was elected, with Gandhi's backing), Thus Congress has been controlled by Rahul's family for most of the past 90 years. In this way Congress which born by a foreigner is not only gone in a foreign hand again now but also it is again be made the property of them after the humiliation of Sitaram Kesari, which must be called the black day of the Congress history.
Great gathering of relatives of Martyr Tatya Tope in Shivpuri of MP
"Sahidon ki chitaon per lagenge har baras mele,
Vatan pe mitne walon kaa yahi baaki nishan hoga"
Commander of first Independence war of India 1857 Ramchandra Pandurang Yolekar Allias Tatya Tope's death anniversary was celebrated this time on 18 April at Shivpuri. Relatives of these martyrs were present on the place were Tatya Tope was hanged.
About 150 members of Tope from American city Sanfrancisco to Delhi and Yoela of Maharastra were present.
Rajesh Tope, Grand grand son of Tatya Tope showed an old photo of Tatya and said that before 75 years this type of family gathering was held in Yoela which was the birth place of Ramchandra Pandurang Yolekar.
One eldest member of the family Balchand Shankar says that- "British Army harassed in such a way that many members of the family were changed their names and professions. Women begin to wear dresses like Muslim women instead of Marathi."
Family of Balchand Shankar was living in Gwalior at that time. These families faced threat not only from British, but also from Raja Maan Singh of Narwar who betrayed Tatya Tope to handover him to the Britisher.
On 18 April 1859 Tatya Tope was hanged in Shivpuri prison barrack no. 4.
In this occasion family members of Rani Laxmi Bai, Nana Shaheb and other Martyrs besides the Tatya Tope's family members were also present.
"Goli se fansi tak jwala aaj dhadhakti jati hai,
Desh pe mitnewalon ki soee yaad jagati hai,
Veeron ki quarbani ne bharat kaa nakasha khincha hai,
Hansate Hansate apne khoon se is gulshan ko seencha hai,
Khandit na ho Naksha e Gulshan aaj tuje chetati hai,
Goli se fansi tak jwala aaj dhadhakti jati hai,"
GLORIOUS LIFE OF TATYA TOPE
Tatya Tope also known as Ram Chandra Pandurang was born in 1814 at village Gola in Maharashtra. His father, Pandurang Rao Tope was an important noble at the court of the Peshwa Baji Rao-II. He shifted his family with the ill-fated Peshwa to Bithur where his son became the most intimate friend of the Peshwa's adopted son, Nana Dhundu Pant, known as Nana Saheb.
In 1851, when Lord Dalhousie deprived Nana Saheb of his father's pension, Tatya Tope also became a sworn enemy of the British. In May 1857, when the political storm was gaining momentum, he won over the Indian troops of the East India Company, stationed at Kanpur, established Nana Saheb's authority and became the Commander-in-Chief of his revolutionary forces.
After the reoccupation of Kanpur and separatoni from Nana Saheb, Tatya Tope shifted his headquarters to Kalpi to join hands with Rani Lakshmi Bai and led a revolt in Bundelkhand. He was routed at Betwa, Koonch, and Kalpi, but reached Gwalior and declared Nana Saheb as Peshwa with the support of the Gwalior contingent. Before he could consolidate his position he was defeated by General Rose in a memorable battle in which Rani Lakshmi Bai suffered martyrdom.
After losing Gwalior to the British, he launched a successful guerilla campaign in the Sagar and Narmada regions and in Khandesh and Rajasthan. The British forces failed to subdue him for over a year. He was, however, betrayed into the hands of the British by his trusted friend Man Singh, Chief of Narwar, while asleep in his camp in the Paron forest. He was captured and taken to Sipri where he was tried by a military court and executed at the gallows on April 18, 1859.
He admitted boldly in the court on April 7, 1859 "What he did, was for his own motherland and he was no regrets"
Hear the alarming sorrow lives of the Topes of Bithur of Kanpur
Kanpur: Ramchandra Pandurang popularily known as Tatya Tope was an able great leader of the First War of Freedom of 1857 which was fought by Hindu Muslim and others jointly. His heirs of Kanpur are in the struggle of getting bread selling turmeric, chilly and salt. We read in the books and internet Taya Tope as a great martyr with long moustache and attractive personality. But the fact is that his heir in the village Bethur of Dist Kanpur sells kirana items in a little shop to earn hardly their livelihood. No one is in India to care for them.
Vinayak Tope of the third generation is in Bithur. His wife Saraswati devi said that after giving bribe of Rs 500 pention was approved in 1995 but useless. Uptill now pention has not been started to give them. Along with her two daughters Pragati and Pravriti, son Ashutosh and husband Vinayak Rao Tope, Sarswati is living in the lavkush nagar of Bithur. They open a little kirana shop in the Jan of the year 2006. Before this They could harldy get food by the dakshina which Vanayak tope would get against the competion of the religious ceremony of the 'jajmans' clients.
Daughter Pragati is a teacher in the local LaxmiBaiSchool on the salary of only Rs 600/- per month. Her elder graduate sister is still unemployed and achelor. Brother Ashutosh is the student of Intermediate. Brother and sister are worried for the marriage of their elder sister. Sarladevi is panic to say that her daughtes and son could not get higher education due the weak financial position.
Local residentials and historians say that Britishers saw Tope in such enemity that they play bloody game in the Bithur in 1857 and because of that Bithur the population of 48,000 remained with the 3000 population at that time. They became lucky because Britishers eyes could not reach upon them.
Tags: Nehru Gandhi Martyrdom Tatya Tope Dynasty Heir 150th anniversary 1857 IIT Shivpuri British Kanpur Gwalior Bithur Motherland War of Freedom Moustache Rani Lakshmi Bai Bundelkhand Peshwa Kalpi Betwa Ezast India Company; tag this
By Pemendra agrawal
www.newsanalysisindia.com/
Related Article
1857 First War of Indian Independence Vs Gandhigiri
http://www.newsanalysisindia.com/114012007.htm
We have celebrated the 150th anniversary of the first freedom war. Tarun Vijay rightly wrote in TO: It's a shame to see how the 1857 150th anniversary has been turned into a sham sarkari jholawala function devoid of any life and vibrancy. In fact in the whole melee Richard Gere and Shilpa Shetty got more coverage than the revolutionaries whose martyrdom we were supposed to recollect and tell our children "look this is how we got our Independence".
Veer Savarkar was sent to kalapani so his IITian kin is spending life on road. Mughal begum, Lives in penury in a slum. Beyond Nehru Gandhi dynasty no India is for Congress. Lal Bahadur Shstri was done with in 13 months which Nehru could not do with in 13 years of his rule. Original Gandhi Mahatma was mahatma, so not a single member of his family is in the parliament.Where are heirs of Subhash, Tilak, Bhagat Singh?
Motilal Nehru was elected as Congress President in 1919 and 1920. When in 1929, Nehru handed over the Congress presidency to Jawaharlal (Jawaharlal was elected, with Gandhi's backing), Thus Congress has been controlled by Rahul's family for most of the past 90 years. In this way Congress which born by a foreigner is not only gone in a foreign hand again now but also it is again be made the property of them after the humiliation of Sitaram Kesari, which must be called the black day of the Congress history.
Great gathering of relatives of Martyr Tatya Tope in Shivpuri of MP
"Sahidon ki chitaon per lagenge har baras mele,
Vatan pe mitne walon kaa yahi baaki nishan hoga"
Commander of first Independence war of India 1857 Ramchandra Pandurang Yolekar Allias Tatya Tope's death anniversary was celebrated this time on 18 April at Shivpuri. Relatives of these martyrs were present on the place were Tatya Tope was hanged.
About 150 members of Tope from American city Sanfrancisco to Delhi and Yoela of Maharastra were present.
Rajesh Tope, Grand grand son of Tatya Tope showed an old photo of Tatya and said that before 75 years this type of family gathering was held in Yoela which was the birth place of Ramchandra Pandurang Yolekar.
One eldest member of the family Balchand Shankar says that- "British Army harassed in such a way that many members of the family were changed their names and professions. Women begin to wear dresses like Muslim women instead of Marathi."
Family of Balchand Shankar was living in Gwalior at that time. These families faced threat not only from British, but also from Raja Maan Singh of Narwar who betrayed Tatya Tope to handover him to the Britisher.
On 18 April 1859 Tatya Tope was hanged in Shivpuri prison barrack no. 4.
In this occasion family members of Rani Laxmi Bai, Nana Shaheb and other Martyrs besides the Tatya Tope's family members were also present.
"Goli se fansi tak jwala aaj dhadhakti jati hai,
Desh pe mitnewalon ki soee yaad jagati hai,
Veeron ki quarbani ne bharat kaa nakasha khincha hai,
Hansate Hansate apne khoon se is gulshan ko seencha hai,
Khandit na ho Naksha e Gulshan aaj tuje chetati hai,
Goli se fansi tak jwala aaj dhadhakti jati hai,"
GLORIOUS LIFE OF TATYA TOPE
Tatya Tope also known as Ram Chandra Pandurang was born in 1814 at village Gola in Maharashtra. His father, Pandurang Rao Tope was an important noble at the court of the Peshwa Baji Rao-II. He shifted his family with the ill-fated Peshwa to Bithur where his son became the most intimate friend of the Peshwa's adopted son, Nana Dhundu Pant, known as Nana Saheb.
In 1851, when Lord Dalhousie deprived Nana Saheb of his father's pension, Tatya Tope also became a sworn enemy of the British. In May 1857, when the political storm was gaining momentum, he won over the Indian troops of the East India Company, stationed at Kanpur, established Nana Saheb's authority and became the Commander-in-Chief of his revolutionary forces.
After the reoccupation of Kanpur and separatoni from Nana Saheb, Tatya Tope shifted his headquarters to Kalpi to join hands with Rani Lakshmi Bai and led a revolt in Bundelkhand. He was routed at Betwa, Koonch, and Kalpi, but reached Gwalior and declared Nana Saheb as Peshwa with the support of the Gwalior contingent. Before he could consolidate his position he was defeated by General Rose in a memorable battle in which Rani Lakshmi Bai suffered martyrdom.
After losing Gwalior to the British, he launched a successful guerilla campaign in the Sagar and Narmada regions and in Khandesh and Rajasthan. The British forces failed to subdue him for over a year. He was, however, betrayed into the hands of the British by his trusted friend Man Singh, Chief of Narwar, while asleep in his camp in the Paron forest. He was captured and taken to Sipri where he was tried by a military court and executed at the gallows on April 18, 1859.
He admitted boldly in the court on April 7, 1859 "What he did, was for his own motherland and he was no regrets"
Hear the alarming sorrow lives of the Topes of Bithur of Kanpur
Kanpur: Ramchandra Pandurang popularily known as Tatya Tope was an able great leader of the First War of Freedom of 1857 which was fought by Hindu Muslim and others jointly. His heirs of Kanpur are in the struggle of getting bread selling turmeric, chilly and salt. We read in the books and internet Taya Tope as a great martyr with long moustache and attractive personality. But the fact is that his heir in the village Bethur of Dist Kanpur sells kirana items in a little shop to earn hardly their livelihood. No one is in India to care for them.
Vinayak Tope of the third generation is in Bithur. His wife Saraswati devi said that after giving bribe of Rs 500 pention was approved in 1995 but useless. Uptill now pention has not been started to give them. Along with her two daughters Pragati and Pravriti, son Ashutosh and husband Vinayak Rao Tope, Sarswati is living in the lavkush nagar of Bithur. They open a little kirana shop in the Jan of the year 2006. Before this They could harldy get food by the dakshina which Vanayak tope would get against the competion of the religious ceremony of the 'jajmans' clients.
Daughter Pragati is a teacher in the local LaxmiBaiSchool on the salary of only Rs 600/- per month. Her elder graduate sister is still unemployed and achelor. Brother Ashutosh is the student of Intermediate. Brother and sister are worried for the marriage of their elder sister. Sarladevi is panic to say that her daughtes and son could not get higher education due the weak financial position.
Local residentials and historians say that Britishers saw Tope in such enemity that they play bloody game in the Bithur in 1857 and because of that Bithur the population of 48,000 remained with the 3000 population at that time. They became lucky because Britishers eyes could not reach upon them.
Tags: Nehru Gandhi Martyrdom Tatya Tope Dynasty Heir 150th anniversary 1857 IIT Shivpuri British Kanpur Gwalior Bithur Motherland War of Freedom Moustache Rani Lakshmi Bai Bundelkhand Peshwa Kalpi Betwa Ezast India Company; tag this
By Pemendra agrawal
www.newsanalysisindia.com/
Related Article
1857 First War of Indian Independence Vs Gandhigiri
http://www.newsanalysisindia.com/114012007.htm
May 24, 2007
Weapons of War in the Niger Delta
Source: Jamestown Foundation
By Bestman Wellington
The Niger Delta region of Nigeria, home to large oil and gas operations, is awash with dangerous Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW). The explosion in activities of non-state armed groups poses a serious threat to residents, the security of the Nigerian state and the booming petro-business in the region. Prominent among the armed groups operating in the oil- and gas-rich, but poverty stricken and under-developed enclave, are the Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force (NDPVF), the Bush Boys and the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). Some of these groups are political militant groups, demanding an equitable distribution of oil resources, justice and development of the Niger Delta region, while others are gangs and criminal syndicate groups, also called cults or confraternities in Nigeria. All of them tap into the vibrant gun and gang culture in the delta.
Weapons Flood the Delta
From various police and military raids of the groups' armories and hideouts, or the government initiated disarmament or cash-for-arms programs, weapons have been uncovered in droves. The weapons vary from AK-47s, Czech SAs, light machine guns, Czech Model 26s, Sten MK 2s, Rocket Propelled Grenades (RPG), MAT-49s, MG 36s, Berettas, HK G3s, FN-FALs, home-made guns, pump-action shot guns, G3s, among others [1]. The sophisticated European-made assault rifles and explosives are in the hands of the militant groups like MEND and the Martyrs Brigade. The groups also possess a few M-16s, which are made in the United States. Russia, Germany, Belgium, Serbia, Czechoslovakia, the United States and China are all sources for Nigerian arms (Niger Delta Standard, March 5, 2006).
These weapons—so called SALWs—are brought into the delta from various locations. Most of the assault rifles—such as the Russian AK-47, the German G3, the Belgian FN-FAL, the Czech machine-guns and the Serbian RPGs—are supplied by illegal dealers and sellers. Some of the illegal gun dealers are Nigerians. In October 2006, for example, the Rivers State police command arrested Chris Ndudi Njoku, a 45 year-old businessman who specialized in importing prohibited firearms into Nigeria. In his possession were hundreds of G3s, AK-47s and Beretta automatic rifles [2]. There are also European dealers involved in the trade, but, unlike their Nigerian counterparts, they almost always escape the arm of the law, in some cases due to their connections with powerful figures in various governments (This Day, February 18, 2003).
Nigeria has porous borders on both its land and sea edges, allowing gun smuggling from a variety of African countries. Many of the weapons also come from war-torn countries in Africa. Additionally, poorly paid Nigerian soldiers who have served in peacekeeping missions in other African countries, such as Liberia and Sierra Leone, often return home and sell their weapons to combatants or gun dealers [3]. According to one arms researcher, Babafemi Ojudu, many of the arms smuggling rings operate out of Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Cameroon and Nigeria (IRIN, May 2006). The smugglers use speed boats to connect with ships on the high seas, and then ferry the arms back to shore. Jailed militant leader Alhaji Dokubo-Asari confirmed this method to reporters in 2005, stating, "We are very close to international waters, and it's very easy to get weapons from ships" (IRIN, May 2006).
Some of the weapons in the armed groups' stockpiles are acquired after attacks on police and military outposts. During such attacks, the militant groups break into the police or military armories and cart away arms. There are many cases in which armed groups conduct well-coordinated attacks and kill Nigerian security officials, carting away their weapons. On July 12, 2006, for example, MEND combatants killed four naval personnel and injured three soldiers who were escorting a Chevron oil tanker along Chonomi creeks in the Warri South West Local Government Area of Delta State and in turn confiscated their weapons (The Punch, July 13, 2006). Just this year, in Port Harcourt, the capital of Rivers State, on the eve of the Governorship and House of Assembly elections on April 14, armed militants attacked the Mini-Okoro Elelenwo police stations and carted away recently-arrived AK-47s, killing many police officers during the attack (The Midweek Telegraph, April 18-24). Corrupt security officials also sell weapons to militants. Before the April elections, for example, politicians in Niger State imported massive amounts of arms for their "security detachments" (which also likely went to thugs hired to help rig the elections) (Vanguard, April 13).
Additionally, armed groups thrive on the local oil boom. They carry out oil bunkering (theft) operations, often exchanging bunkered oil for weapons or selling oil and then purchasing guns. Oil money is a significant force behind the proliferation of weapons in the region. Major bunkering groups also supply gangs with weapons and have them act as armed guards while they travel along the waterways and bunkering routes looking for pipelines from which to pilfer oil. Politicians also hire gangs and criminal groups to have them provide security and, during election season, to help intimidate voters to vote a certain way. Many of the politicians purchase their weapons from illegal dealers, helping to fuel the trade.
Apart from the above weapons sources, there are local underground arms manufacturing industries in Awka, the capital of Anambra State in eastern Nigeria. There, local blacksmiths produce weapons popularly called, "Awka made." The Awka guns cannot be classified as automatic weapons because the quality of the weapons is so poor. Nevertheless, the gun can inflict serious injury or even death on its target at close range.
Attacks in the Delta
The armed groups of the Niger Delta have carried out deadly and paralyzing attacks on oil and gas facilities with their weapons. They have shut down oil production and massacred scores of security officials guarding the facilities and infrastructure. The groups are fighting in familiar terrain which, despite the fact that the security forces are armed, gives the armed groups the upper-hand. They have also taken foreign oil workers hostage—sometimes releasing them only after huge ransoms are paid. The groups often use the ransom money to support their insurrectionary campaigns. These latter activities are always associated with the political-militant groups like the NDPVF, MEND and the Martyrs Brigade.
The armed groups in the delta often conduct their attacks using outboard-engine motorized fiber boats. Some of the speed boats are imported, while some are locally crafted. Most locally-manufactured speed boats are smaller compared to the foreign-made, yet the former can also travel the rough seas. Despite the employment of sophisticated gunboats by the Nigerian military taskforce, insurrectionary campaigns by the militant groups are almost always successful. The success of the militant operations hinges on two factors: the ingenuity of the militant boat drivers who are familiar with the terrain of the creeks' complex web of streams, and the popular support among the people of the region that the many years of neglect and under-development of the Niger Delta area have fostered.
To reduce the number of weapons in the Niger Delta, there is a need to prevent the flow of weapons from other countries into illegal hands in Nigeria. The local police bureaus must also live up to their responsibility of curtailing the inflow of these illicit guns into the delta. The government should run a credible and transparent security system that, by providing residents with their basic security needs, will discourage them from forming or joining cults or militant formations that are proliferating dangerous SALWs throughout Nigeria
Notes
1. Nicholas Florquin and Eric G. Berman, "Armed and Armless; Security in the ECOWAS Region," Small Arms Survey, Geneva, 2005. The above weapons are not exhaustive of the guns in the hands of the various groups.
2. "Soldiers, Police Seize High Caliber Rifles in Rivers," Human Rights News, Centre for Environment, Human Rights and Development (CEHRD), Ogale-Nchia, Eleme, Rivers State, Nigeria, October, 2006.
3. Nicholas Florquin and Eric Berman, "Armed and Armless."
By Bestman Wellington
The Niger Delta region of Nigeria, home to large oil and gas operations, is awash with dangerous Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW). The explosion in activities of non-state armed groups poses a serious threat to residents, the security of the Nigerian state and the booming petro-business in the region. Prominent among the armed groups operating in the oil- and gas-rich, but poverty stricken and under-developed enclave, are the Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force (NDPVF), the Bush Boys and the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). Some of these groups are political militant groups, demanding an equitable distribution of oil resources, justice and development of the Niger Delta region, while others are gangs and criminal syndicate groups, also called cults or confraternities in Nigeria. All of them tap into the vibrant gun and gang culture in the delta.
Weapons Flood the Delta
From various police and military raids of the groups' armories and hideouts, or the government initiated disarmament or cash-for-arms programs, weapons have been uncovered in droves. The weapons vary from AK-47s, Czech SAs, light machine guns, Czech Model 26s, Sten MK 2s, Rocket Propelled Grenades (RPG), MAT-49s, MG 36s, Berettas, HK G3s, FN-FALs, home-made guns, pump-action shot guns, G3s, among others [1]. The sophisticated European-made assault rifles and explosives are in the hands of the militant groups like MEND and the Martyrs Brigade. The groups also possess a few M-16s, which are made in the United States. Russia, Germany, Belgium, Serbia, Czechoslovakia, the United States and China are all sources for Nigerian arms (Niger Delta Standard, March 5, 2006).
These weapons—so called SALWs—are brought into the delta from various locations. Most of the assault rifles—such as the Russian AK-47, the German G3, the Belgian FN-FAL, the Czech machine-guns and the Serbian RPGs—are supplied by illegal dealers and sellers. Some of the illegal gun dealers are Nigerians. In October 2006, for example, the Rivers State police command arrested Chris Ndudi Njoku, a 45 year-old businessman who specialized in importing prohibited firearms into Nigeria. In his possession were hundreds of G3s, AK-47s and Beretta automatic rifles [2]. There are also European dealers involved in the trade, but, unlike their Nigerian counterparts, they almost always escape the arm of the law, in some cases due to their connections with powerful figures in various governments (This Day, February 18, 2003).
Nigeria has porous borders on both its land and sea edges, allowing gun smuggling from a variety of African countries. Many of the weapons also come from war-torn countries in Africa. Additionally, poorly paid Nigerian soldiers who have served in peacekeeping missions in other African countries, such as Liberia and Sierra Leone, often return home and sell their weapons to combatants or gun dealers [3]. According to one arms researcher, Babafemi Ojudu, many of the arms smuggling rings operate out of Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Cameroon and Nigeria (IRIN, May 2006). The smugglers use speed boats to connect with ships on the high seas, and then ferry the arms back to shore. Jailed militant leader Alhaji Dokubo-Asari confirmed this method to reporters in 2005, stating, "We are very close to international waters, and it's very easy to get weapons from ships" (IRIN, May 2006).
Some of the weapons in the armed groups' stockpiles are acquired after attacks on police and military outposts. During such attacks, the militant groups break into the police or military armories and cart away arms. There are many cases in which armed groups conduct well-coordinated attacks and kill Nigerian security officials, carting away their weapons. On July 12, 2006, for example, MEND combatants killed four naval personnel and injured three soldiers who were escorting a Chevron oil tanker along Chonomi creeks in the Warri South West Local Government Area of Delta State and in turn confiscated their weapons (The Punch, July 13, 2006). Just this year, in Port Harcourt, the capital of Rivers State, on the eve of the Governorship and House of Assembly elections on April 14, armed militants attacked the Mini-Okoro Elelenwo police stations and carted away recently-arrived AK-47s, killing many police officers during the attack (The Midweek Telegraph, April 18-24). Corrupt security officials also sell weapons to militants. Before the April elections, for example, politicians in Niger State imported massive amounts of arms for their "security detachments" (which also likely went to thugs hired to help rig the elections) (Vanguard, April 13).
Additionally, armed groups thrive on the local oil boom. They carry out oil bunkering (theft) operations, often exchanging bunkered oil for weapons or selling oil and then purchasing guns. Oil money is a significant force behind the proliferation of weapons in the region. Major bunkering groups also supply gangs with weapons and have them act as armed guards while they travel along the waterways and bunkering routes looking for pipelines from which to pilfer oil. Politicians also hire gangs and criminal groups to have them provide security and, during election season, to help intimidate voters to vote a certain way. Many of the politicians purchase their weapons from illegal dealers, helping to fuel the trade.
Apart from the above weapons sources, there are local underground arms manufacturing industries in Awka, the capital of Anambra State in eastern Nigeria. There, local blacksmiths produce weapons popularly called, "Awka made." The Awka guns cannot be classified as automatic weapons because the quality of the weapons is so poor. Nevertheless, the gun can inflict serious injury or even death on its target at close range.
Attacks in the Delta
The armed groups of the Niger Delta have carried out deadly and paralyzing attacks on oil and gas facilities with their weapons. They have shut down oil production and massacred scores of security officials guarding the facilities and infrastructure. The groups are fighting in familiar terrain which, despite the fact that the security forces are armed, gives the armed groups the upper-hand. They have also taken foreign oil workers hostage—sometimes releasing them only after huge ransoms are paid. The groups often use the ransom money to support their insurrectionary campaigns. These latter activities are always associated with the political-militant groups like the NDPVF, MEND and the Martyrs Brigade.
The armed groups in the delta often conduct their attacks using outboard-engine motorized fiber boats. Some of the speed boats are imported, while some are locally crafted. Most locally-manufactured speed boats are smaller compared to the foreign-made, yet the former can also travel the rough seas. Despite the employment of sophisticated gunboats by the Nigerian military taskforce, insurrectionary campaigns by the militant groups are almost always successful. The success of the militant operations hinges on two factors: the ingenuity of the militant boat drivers who are familiar with the terrain of the creeks' complex web of streams, and the popular support among the people of the region that the many years of neglect and under-development of the Niger Delta area have fostered.
To reduce the number of weapons in the Niger Delta, there is a need to prevent the flow of weapons from other countries into illegal hands in Nigeria. The local police bureaus must also live up to their responsibility of curtailing the inflow of these illicit guns into the delta. The government should run a credible and transparent security system that, by providing residents with their basic security needs, will discourage them from forming or joining cults or militant formations that are proliferating dangerous SALWs throughout Nigeria
Notes
1. Nicholas Florquin and Eric G. Berman, "Armed and Armless; Security in the ECOWAS Region," Small Arms Survey, Geneva, 2005. The above weapons are not exhaustive of the guns in the hands of the various groups.
2. "Soldiers, Police Seize High Caliber Rifles in Rivers," Human Rights News, Centre for Environment, Human Rights and Development (CEHRD), Ogale-Nchia, Eleme, Rivers State, Nigeria, October, 2006.
3. Nicholas Florquin and Eric Berman, "Armed and Armless."
EAST ASIA’S STRATEGIC GEOMETRIES AND INDIA’S LIMITATIONS
By Dr. Subhash Kapila
Introductory Observations
The Cold War never ended in East Asia even with the dissolution of the Former Soviet Union at the commencement of the 1990s. The Cold War continued in East Asia; the only difference being that in the strategic and threat perceptions of the United States and its major alliance partner in East Asia, namely Japan, the Former Soviet Union stood replaced by China as the major threat.
In the first decade of the 21st century, the Cold War still persists in East Asia with the policy establishments and think tanks in the United States and Japan pre-occupied with serious deliberations on how to cope with a rising, powerful and assertive China.
The defining feature of East Asia’s strategic geometry has remained a constant with the exception of China. The United States has remained the predominant military power in East Asia since 1945 and may continue for another two decades. The United States crafted a web of bi-lateral security alliances in East Asia with countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Philippines as part of its security architecture in East Asia.
China as a weak economic and military power was during the Cold War in a military alliance with the Former Soviet Union. In the 1970s and first part of the 1980s it was induced by the United States to become an American “quasi-strategic ally” against the Soviet Union. During the continuing Cold War in East Asia underway, China as a rising power today is once again in a solid strategic partnership with a resurgent Russia. Both today seem to challenge the existing strategic status quo in East Asia.
Since East Asia’s strategic landscape in the 21st century will be essentially determined by the inter-se relationships of the United States and China, it would be pertinent to remember the “swing strategy” of both China and the United States in East Asia.
East Asia, till recently, essentially comprised of the Pacific littoral of mainland Asia and the island nations of Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines. More strategically, and less economically and politically, the ASEAN countries were incorporated in the definition of East Asia. In April 2005, the ASEAN Foreign Ministers invited India, Australia and New Zealand to attend the First East Asia summit. East Asia in its extended definition now includes these three countries also.
East Asia today, presents a picture of churning “strategic geometries” where variable equations are being attempted to be crafted as part of the ongoing Cold War. The United States, Russia and China as the key players are busy with their ‘set-squares’ trying to put their respective templates on the East Asian strategic chess-board.
Russia and China have come up with their Shanghai Cooperation Organization which encompasses a major portion of the Asian Pacific littoral and extends deeply into Central Asia and includes India, Pakistan and Iran as observer states which would turn into full membership.
At the other end of the strategic spectrum, to balance the above in East Asia, the United States is attempting to add additional strategic pillars to its existing security edifice of bilateral security alliances in East Asia. In the last year or so, an increasing resonance that has emerged from United States and Japanese policy establishment and think-tanks is the imperative of an “East Asian Trilateral (USA, Japan and India) an “East Asian Quadrilateral” (USA, Japan, India and Australia) and the “Axis of Democracies” with India, of course, prominently in the pack.
The Indian policy establishment may feel very flattered by all this strategic attention and strategic wooing, but the moot question is whether India has the strategic, military and political pre-requisites of power to become a major player in East Asia.
This author feels otherwise and would therefore like to analyze the subject under the following heads:
India’s Ambiguity on East Asia’s Strategic Geometries
India’s Strategic and Military Limitations in Playing a Major Strategic Role in East Asia
India’s Political Limitations in Indulging in East Asia Strategic Geometries
India’s Ambiguity on East Asia’s Strategic Geometries
India has officially not recorded its formal views in declaratory terms on the East Asian strategic geometries as being propounded by the United States and Japan. It has however, though, responded positively to greater engagement and cooperation with USA, Japan and Australia. It has become fashionable for the Indian policy establishment to term every engagement with all and sundry nations as “strategic partnership” and this presumably also applies to its responses to the current inducements to be part of the proposed strategic geometries being propounded.
Hints on these strategic geometries in East Asia seem to have been thrown by at least one Senior Indian Cabinet Minister and some officials that India at some stage would have to participate in such strategic geometries.
India’s policy penchant for ambiguity in the strategic sphere is well known by now. In fact there exists a difference in perceptions and nuances of what India perceives as “strategic partnership” to what USA, Japan and Australia perceive. In relation to Japan this stands covered in this Authors paper “Japan-India Strategic Cooperation: Differing Nuances?” (http://www.saag.org/papers21/paper2099.html dated 18.01.2007)
India’s ambiguities on East Asia strategic geometries, in addition to the above, can be said to arise from the following factors. (1) India still not fully assured and not having implicit trust in a United States – India strategic partnership (2) India unwilling to be part of an East Asian strategy of containment of China (3) India’s political predilection to follow “soft power” approaches as opposed to “hard power” approaches (4) India’s Congress Government’s coalition compulsions, in that with the Leftist as the major coalition partner, they will not allow India to work against China’s strategic interests.
More importantly, East Asia today presents an extremely complex strategic landscape to India’s strategic analysts and others in the region and so also the constancy of United States strategic intentions in East Asia, in terms of emerging East Asia regionalism which seeks to exclude the United States.
Singapore’s Senior Minister, Mr. Goh Chok Tong had aptly reflected on the above at an Asia Security Conference in Bangkok in 2005, that the situation is “still plastic, in a malleable stage, its final form subject to political decisions and strategic choices.”
More importantly, Mr. Goh made the following observations on USA: “Will United States play the game? This unfortunately is not to be taken for granted. The United States attitude towards East Asia regionalism and regional diplomacy more generally has been ambivalent. I sense that some in Washington still ask whether the game is worth the candle.”
Further, assuming that there was no complexity in the East Asian strategic picture and that India had firm intentions to become a major strategic player in East Asia, would India today have the strategic, military and political prerequisites and capabilities to play that role? The answer is negative and hence an appraisal of the limitations that exist.
India’s Strategic and Military Limitations in Playing a Major Strategic Role in East Asia
India is geographically far away from the strategic center of gravity in East Asia. It shares a long land border with only one East Asian country, namely China. For playing any major strategic role in East Asia, India needs to have substantive “force projection” capabilities in terms of the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force. More significantly, India’s strategic assets should give her range coverage to the farthest confines of East Asia which means Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs).
India’s present nuclear weapons and missile arsenal do not provide any credible power-punch to play an effective role in East Asia. India would reach that stage only when it catches up with China in these two fields.
The Indian Navy must not be induced to exaggerate its operational capabilities by the effective role it played in the South and South East Asian Tsunami disaster relief. The Indian Navy has yet to form a dedicated Indian Ocean Fleet for the Indian Ocean Region extending to South Africa and Australia. If India is to play an effective role in East Asia strategic geometries it would require yet another East Asia Fleet on station in the region. In sum, two additional Naval Fleets based on Aircraft Carrier Groups will be required. At the present rate of defense allocations to the Indian Navy it would take more than 20 years to acquire the requisite capabilities.
The Indian Air Force, due to India’s domestic political compulsions, stands handicapped for the last couple of years by a serious deficiency of 136 combat aircraft in its frontline squadrons. For any extended role in East Asia, the Indian Air Force would have to acquire strategic bombers and strategic surveillance aircraft additionally. Unless these acquisitions are put on a fast-track, it would take years to build up this capability.
In view of India’s glaring strategic and military limitations in relation to East Asia strategic geometries, one is tempted to ask the question as to what are the strategic roles the United States and Japan are seeking of India by involving it in their strategic “Trilaterals, “Quadrilaterals” and “Axis of Democracies”?
Is it only related to India’s extended geographical contiguity with China and India’s sizeable Indian Army being applied against China in some future contingency on behalf of the proposed strategic groupings?
India’s Political Limitations in Indulging in East Asia Strategic Geometries
India’s political limitations in national security management, higher direction of war and lack of political will to use power stands amply analyzed in this Author’s book. “India’s Defence Polices and Strategic Thought: A Comparative Analysis”. Nothing has changed since.
India’s political leadership across the political spectrum has shirked from exercising hard choices in relation to strategic and military choices. Indulging in East Asia strategic geometries would call for hard strategic choices. Other than rhetoric, no encouraging indicators exist that could induce confidence that India is ready to play the ‘balance of power’ politics and is also ready to follow the ‘Realism’ school of political theory in the exercise of its diplomacy and hard strategic choices.
By historical and political conditioning the present generation of India’s political leadership has not prepared and equipped itself by education, learning or inclination to grasp matters strategic and military.
Nothing is more strikingly painful in India’s measuring-up to be a global key player, if not a global power, is Indian political leadership’s lack of will to use power and the national power attributes. India’s lack of will to use its national power is painfully evident in South Asia, in its approaches to terrorism and the proxy war unleashed against it. India’s appeasement polices in facing them is reflective of its political leadership looking for escapist options when faced with hard decisions. If India has allowed its image in South Asia as a regional power to be eroded, how can it aspire to participate in East Asia’s strategic geometries?
Concluding Observations
India-at-large would have immense pride if its political leadership by enlarged and extended strategic engagement could place India as a major strategic player globally, which includes East Asia.
India is presently not strategically, militarily or politically equipped to play a major role in the strategic geometries of East Asia, and would be well advised to avoid a strategic over-reach till it builds up her strategic capabilities which can be respected in East Asia.
Presently, India can only end up as a Grade-B follower in East Asia strategic geometries. It cannot hope to be a major and equitable player of the strategic game on the East Asian strategic chessboard.
The present fawning on India of the United States and Japan to participate in East Asia strategic geometries, despite India’s strategic limitations, can only be read as use of India more for political and strategic signaling to the other side.
Finally, no strategic advantages accrue to India in the furtherance of India’s national security interests by partaking in East Asia strategic geometries.
(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com
Introductory Observations
The Cold War never ended in East Asia even with the dissolution of the Former Soviet Union at the commencement of the 1990s. The Cold War continued in East Asia; the only difference being that in the strategic and threat perceptions of the United States and its major alliance partner in East Asia, namely Japan, the Former Soviet Union stood replaced by China as the major threat.
In the first decade of the 21st century, the Cold War still persists in East Asia with the policy establishments and think tanks in the United States and Japan pre-occupied with serious deliberations on how to cope with a rising, powerful and assertive China.
The defining feature of East Asia’s strategic geometry has remained a constant with the exception of China. The United States has remained the predominant military power in East Asia since 1945 and may continue for another two decades. The United States crafted a web of bi-lateral security alliances in East Asia with countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Philippines as part of its security architecture in East Asia.
China as a weak economic and military power was during the Cold War in a military alliance with the Former Soviet Union. In the 1970s and first part of the 1980s it was induced by the United States to become an American “quasi-strategic ally” against the Soviet Union. During the continuing Cold War in East Asia underway, China as a rising power today is once again in a solid strategic partnership with a resurgent Russia. Both today seem to challenge the existing strategic status quo in East Asia.
Since East Asia’s strategic landscape in the 21st century will be essentially determined by the inter-se relationships of the United States and China, it would be pertinent to remember the “swing strategy” of both China and the United States in East Asia.
East Asia, till recently, essentially comprised of the Pacific littoral of mainland Asia and the island nations of Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines. More strategically, and less economically and politically, the ASEAN countries were incorporated in the definition of East Asia. In April 2005, the ASEAN Foreign Ministers invited India, Australia and New Zealand to attend the First East Asia summit. East Asia in its extended definition now includes these three countries also.
East Asia today, presents a picture of churning “strategic geometries” where variable equations are being attempted to be crafted as part of the ongoing Cold War. The United States, Russia and China as the key players are busy with their ‘set-squares’ trying to put their respective templates on the East Asian strategic chess-board.
Russia and China have come up with their Shanghai Cooperation Organization which encompasses a major portion of the Asian Pacific littoral and extends deeply into Central Asia and includes India, Pakistan and Iran as observer states which would turn into full membership.
At the other end of the strategic spectrum, to balance the above in East Asia, the United States is attempting to add additional strategic pillars to its existing security edifice of bilateral security alliances in East Asia. In the last year or so, an increasing resonance that has emerged from United States and Japanese policy establishment and think-tanks is the imperative of an “East Asian Trilateral (USA, Japan and India) an “East Asian Quadrilateral” (USA, Japan, India and Australia) and the “Axis of Democracies” with India, of course, prominently in the pack.
The Indian policy establishment may feel very flattered by all this strategic attention and strategic wooing, but the moot question is whether India has the strategic, military and political pre-requisites of power to become a major player in East Asia.
This author feels otherwise and would therefore like to analyze the subject under the following heads:
India’s Ambiguity on East Asia’s Strategic Geometries
India’s Strategic and Military Limitations in Playing a Major Strategic Role in East Asia
India’s Political Limitations in Indulging in East Asia Strategic Geometries
India’s Ambiguity on East Asia’s Strategic Geometries
India has officially not recorded its formal views in declaratory terms on the East Asian strategic geometries as being propounded by the United States and Japan. It has however, though, responded positively to greater engagement and cooperation with USA, Japan and Australia. It has become fashionable for the Indian policy establishment to term every engagement with all and sundry nations as “strategic partnership” and this presumably also applies to its responses to the current inducements to be part of the proposed strategic geometries being propounded.
Hints on these strategic geometries in East Asia seem to have been thrown by at least one Senior Indian Cabinet Minister and some officials that India at some stage would have to participate in such strategic geometries.
India’s policy penchant for ambiguity in the strategic sphere is well known by now. In fact there exists a difference in perceptions and nuances of what India perceives as “strategic partnership” to what USA, Japan and Australia perceive. In relation to Japan this stands covered in this Authors paper “Japan-India Strategic Cooperation: Differing Nuances?” (http://www.saag.org/papers21/paper2099.html dated 18.01.2007)
India’s ambiguities on East Asia strategic geometries, in addition to the above, can be said to arise from the following factors. (1) India still not fully assured and not having implicit trust in a United States – India strategic partnership (2) India unwilling to be part of an East Asian strategy of containment of China (3) India’s political predilection to follow “soft power” approaches as opposed to “hard power” approaches (4) India’s Congress Government’s coalition compulsions, in that with the Leftist as the major coalition partner, they will not allow India to work against China’s strategic interests.
More importantly, East Asia today presents an extremely complex strategic landscape to India’s strategic analysts and others in the region and so also the constancy of United States strategic intentions in East Asia, in terms of emerging East Asia regionalism which seeks to exclude the United States.
Singapore’s Senior Minister, Mr. Goh Chok Tong had aptly reflected on the above at an Asia Security Conference in Bangkok in 2005, that the situation is “still plastic, in a malleable stage, its final form subject to political decisions and strategic choices.”
More importantly, Mr. Goh made the following observations on USA: “Will United States play the game? This unfortunately is not to be taken for granted. The United States attitude towards East Asia regionalism and regional diplomacy more generally has been ambivalent. I sense that some in Washington still ask whether the game is worth the candle.”
Further, assuming that there was no complexity in the East Asian strategic picture and that India had firm intentions to become a major strategic player in East Asia, would India today have the strategic, military and political prerequisites and capabilities to play that role? The answer is negative and hence an appraisal of the limitations that exist.
India’s Strategic and Military Limitations in Playing a Major Strategic Role in East Asia
India is geographically far away from the strategic center of gravity in East Asia. It shares a long land border with only one East Asian country, namely China. For playing any major strategic role in East Asia, India needs to have substantive “force projection” capabilities in terms of the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force. More significantly, India’s strategic assets should give her range coverage to the farthest confines of East Asia which means Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs).
India’s present nuclear weapons and missile arsenal do not provide any credible power-punch to play an effective role in East Asia. India would reach that stage only when it catches up with China in these two fields.
The Indian Navy must not be induced to exaggerate its operational capabilities by the effective role it played in the South and South East Asian Tsunami disaster relief. The Indian Navy has yet to form a dedicated Indian Ocean Fleet for the Indian Ocean Region extending to South Africa and Australia. If India is to play an effective role in East Asia strategic geometries it would require yet another East Asia Fleet on station in the region. In sum, two additional Naval Fleets based on Aircraft Carrier Groups will be required. At the present rate of defense allocations to the Indian Navy it would take more than 20 years to acquire the requisite capabilities.
The Indian Air Force, due to India’s domestic political compulsions, stands handicapped for the last couple of years by a serious deficiency of 136 combat aircraft in its frontline squadrons. For any extended role in East Asia, the Indian Air Force would have to acquire strategic bombers and strategic surveillance aircraft additionally. Unless these acquisitions are put on a fast-track, it would take years to build up this capability.
In view of India’s glaring strategic and military limitations in relation to East Asia strategic geometries, one is tempted to ask the question as to what are the strategic roles the United States and Japan are seeking of India by involving it in their strategic “Trilaterals, “Quadrilaterals” and “Axis of Democracies”?
Is it only related to India’s extended geographical contiguity with China and India’s sizeable Indian Army being applied against China in some future contingency on behalf of the proposed strategic groupings?
India’s Political Limitations in Indulging in East Asia Strategic Geometries
India’s political limitations in national security management, higher direction of war and lack of political will to use power stands amply analyzed in this Author’s book. “India’s Defence Polices and Strategic Thought: A Comparative Analysis”. Nothing has changed since.
India’s political leadership across the political spectrum has shirked from exercising hard choices in relation to strategic and military choices. Indulging in East Asia strategic geometries would call for hard strategic choices. Other than rhetoric, no encouraging indicators exist that could induce confidence that India is ready to play the ‘balance of power’ politics and is also ready to follow the ‘Realism’ school of political theory in the exercise of its diplomacy and hard strategic choices.
By historical and political conditioning the present generation of India’s political leadership has not prepared and equipped itself by education, learning or inclination to grasp matters strategic and military.
Nothing is more strikingly painful in India’s measuring-up to be a global key player, if not a global power, is Indian political leadership’s lack of will to use power and the national power attributes. India’s lack of will to use its national power is painfully evident in South Asia, in its approaches to terrorism and the proxy war unleashed against it. India’s appeasement polices in facing them is reflective of its political leadership looking for escapist options when faced with hard decisions. If India has allowed its image in South Asia as a regional power to be eroded, how can it aspire to participate in East Asia’s strategic geometries?
Concluding Observations
India-at-large would have immense pride if its political leadership by enlarged and extended strategic engagement could place India as a major strategic player globally, which includes East Asia.
India is presently not strategically, militarily or politically equipped to play a major role in the strategic geometries of East Asia, and would be well advised to avoid a strategic over-reach till it builds up her strategic capabilities which can be respected in East Asia.
Presently, India can only end up as a Grade-B follower in East Asia strategic geometries. It cannot hope to be a major and equitable player of the strategic game on the East Asian strategic chessboard.
The present fawning on India of the United States and Japan to participate in East Asia strategic geometries, despite India’s strategic limitations, can only be read as use of India more for political and strategic signaling to the other side.
Finally, no strategic advantages accrue to India in the furtherance of India’s national security interests by partaking in East Asia strategic geometries.
(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com
Sustainable Consumption: The Evolution of a Concept
Source: Stratfor
May 24, 2007 20 07 GMT
Editor's Note: This is the first installment of a two-part report on the emergence of sustainable consumption as a major policy debate and how it will affect consumers, businesses and policymakers.
By Bart Mongoven
Energy planners in China, the United Kingdom, Finland and elsewhere recently announced they either are embarking on a major nuclear initiative or are beginning the process of major policy changes that could lead to the construction of new power reactors. Even the United States is clearly turning toward a new energy policy that addresses both oil consumption and climate change -- and also includes nuclear power generation. At the center of this new policy, which will evolve over the coming years, will be a cap-and-trade system that encourages conservation and the development of new energy technologies.
With oil consumption and climate change seriously being addressed -- and nuclear power poised to make a major comeback -- the near-term future of energy policy is becoming increasingly clear. In the longer term, the key phrase will be "sustainable consumption."
For most climate change activists, this means their life's work of making the world care about greenhouse gas emissions is giving way to a technical fight over how best to cut those emissions. Meanwhile, the activists who successfully kept nuclear reactor construction at bay will be forced to regroup and look for new strategies to achieve their goals.
As the United States, Europe and China come to recognize, to varying degrees, the growing strategic importance of finding new energy systems, the issue has moved from the domain of small fringe groups to the mainstream. The question, then, is: If climate change and oil use really are being addressed by the major energy consumers (including the United States, of all countries), will so many people and organizations remain intently focused on "saving" the climate?
The activists who first brought the current slate of energy issues to the fore are largely responsible for developing the structural remedies that industrialized countries are now turning to in response to strategic economic, national security and environmental concerns. As new players are now discussing these issues, however, the activists see themselves increasingly outside the decision-making process. The most idealistic of the lot, those who see their position eroding and their goals being co-opted, are about to launch the next major public crusade on energy policy -- one that focuses squarely on consumption and pays little attention to issues of power generation. The result will be a global energy conservation movement that could be bigger than the movement behind climate change. It could also offer tremendous financial rewards to innovators.
Successes and Failures
Realists and idealists in the environmental movement have long been on record calling for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions that would slow and then stop global warming. They portrayed a rise of 2 degrees Celsius in the Earth's temperature to mean the possible end of the humanity, or at least large portions of it. Activist groups stoked fears of the Chinese south coast, U.S. East Coast and much of Northern Europe under water. Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore spoke of the beginning of a new ice age.
Faced with this dire rhetoric, industry has offered a series of compromises that would achieve the preliminary goal of modestly cutting greenhouse gas emissions and that point toward dramatic future emission reductions. Industry's decision that it can address climate change, however, is the primary cause of the divide between those who defined the terms of the debate on energy policy, the realists and the idealists. When industry began to take the issue seriously, the ideals that made easy slogans met the institutions that knew the full depth of the challenges behind the slogans. How many windmills does it take to replace a single coal-fired power plant?
The current debate, then, can represent either a massive victory or abject defeat, depending on the activists' point of view.
On one hand are the idealists who have pressed for energy policies that dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, that work only toward renewable energy sources and that do not include either nuclear power or coal. They did not come all this way to see the revival of nuclear power, the perfection of "clean coal" technology or drastic subsidies for ethanol producers. Their activism was driven by a desire to spur a new economy. However, they are the ones who simultaneously say that climate change represents the possible end of the world, but that the situation is not so dire that we need to turn to proven solutions that happen to be very troublesome. For them, the current debate is a defeat. Industry's entry means the end of the game because it forces them to deal with the reality of what they are demanding.
On the other hand are the realists, those who work within the existing system to make attainable policies. For them, even those concerned by nuclear power, the current debate is a significant victory. For the first time since the 1970s, all of the major Western countries are working on policies that dramatically reduce their consumption of oil, and most are looking for alternatives to coal. Industry's entry into the issue is a dream come true for the realists because it is industry that has the knowledge and technology to make the changes the environmentalists demand.
And the realists are having a pretty good time of it. Innovative technology companies like Honeywell and Johnson Controls are in a pitched battle to develop the most efficient building environment control systems. Automakers are again advertising the fuel economy of their cars. Oil companies are lobbying parliaments for stricter caps on greenhouse gas emissions. In other words, the institutions with the wherewithal to solve complex problems are working to achieve the realists' long-standing objectives.
Europe Moving to Immediacy
What industry is not doing for the realists -- supporting their sense of urgency -- the Russians are doing through their energy blackmail of Europe. As idealistic as Europeans consider themselves, having their economies held hostage by Moscow is forcing the European public to look for swift, realistic answers to its energy problems.
In the months since Russia's move against Belarus, many European governments have embarked on energy paths that environmentalists do not consider perfect solutions -- but that would solve pressing problems. British Prime Minister Tony Blair's government called May 23 for a revival of the United Kingdom's nuclear industry, including the construction of five nuclear reactors by 2020. Finland has begun construction on a new nuclear plant, and Central European EU members are clamoring to get out from under their commitments to abandon nuclear energy as a condition of joining the union. Norway, for its part, continues to battle the Russians over the gas-rich Outer Continental Shelf in the Arctic (even while it imposes dramatic motor vehicle regulations on its drivers).
As with the U.S. move toward embracing climate change, Europeans have stopped looking for ideal or nearly ideal solutions. Like the United States, they are increasingly looking for secure energy sources as much as they are looking for carbon-reducing technologies. They are behaving as if the crisis is immediate.
China is largely in the same position as Europe vis-a-vis Russia, but its situation is exponentially more complex. While China is similar to the United States in that it can meet its energy needs with coal for more than a century, it cannot afford the pollution and other structural costs that have come with its constellation of coal-fired power plants. Meanwhile, for those concerned about climate change, China is a looming problem, set to pass the United States in greenhouse gas emissions in 2008.
China is desperate for new forms of energy, and the industrialized countries are desperate for China to find them. Unlike Europe, which until recently had been satisfied to tinker with inefficient but well-meaning attempts to change the fundamentals of energy production, China has not embraced less-efficient options like wind or solar power. It is far behind being able to satisfy demand, and it cannot afford to waste resources on concepts that feel good but do little.
As a result, China is emerging as a testing ground for the large-scale modern energy systems. Beijing is working out an agreement with Westinghouse to build advanced-technology nuclear reactors as a part of its drive to build as many as three new reactors a year for the next decade. Meanwhile, Western companies are investing heavily in developing coal-to-liquids technologies for China that would reduce the air pollution from using coal as a power source. Although environmentalists oppose both reactors and this latest coal technology, they are effective ways to solve energy problems.
What Comes Next
As is almost always the case, things have not worked out perfectly for the idealists (and, as they are idealists, this is to say things have not worked out at all). So where do they go from here? Having led the public to care about climate change only to be co-opted by industry, those dedicated to the attainment of the ideal energy system are regrouping around the issue of "sustainable consumption." The term, grown out of international environmental conferences, is defined by the Sierra Club as "the use of goods and services that satisfy basic needs and improve quality of life while minimizing the use of irreplaceable natural resources and the byproducts of toxic materials, waste and pollution."
The key elements of sustainable consumption are taxing consumption, taking a life-cycle view of a product's costs and increasing individual consumers' attention to these issues. The issue is a natural follow-on to the 10-year focus on energy generation, and can build on many of the same concepts.
The entry of industry into energy issues due to climate change policy and the pressure in Europe created by Russia's aggressiveness has driven the global energy policy past the inflection point -- and things are beginning to change. People everywhere are looking at energy and energy policy very differently than they did five years ago, and most nations are acting urgently to make fundamental changes. Because these changes have come quickly due to public pressure (rather than due to market forces, which tend to be slower), they have focused on what is available now to help move economies away from reliance on Russian natural gas and the creation of greenhouse gases. The result has been to make changes where it is easiest for governments to force action and for corporations to find market advantages.
Outside of automobile fuel-efficiency standards and moves by individual corporations and institutions to save energy, conservation has been looked at as a second-tier issue compared to generation. That is now going to change.
May 24, 2007 20 07 GMT
Editor's Note: This is the first installment of a two-part report on the emergence of sustainable consumption as a major policy debate and how it will affect consumers, businesses and policymakers.
By Bart Mongoven
Energy planners in China, the United Kingdom, Finland and elsewhere recently announced they either are embarking on a major nuclear initiative or are beginning the process of major policy changes that could lead to the construction of new power reactors. Even the United States is clearly turning toward a new energy policy that addresses both oil consumption and climate change -- and also includes nuclear power generation. At the center of this new policy, which will evolve over the coming years, will be a cap-and-trade system that encourages conservation and the development of new energy technologies.
With oil consumption and climate change seriously being addressed -- and nuclear power poised to make a major comeback -- the near-term future of energy policy is becoming increasingly clear. In the longer term, the key phrase will be "sustainable consumption."
For most climate change activists, this means their life's work of making the world care about greenhouse gas emissions is giving way to a technical fight over how best to cut those emissions. Meanwhile, the activists who successfully kept nuclear reactor construction at bay will be forced to regroup and look for new strategies to achieve their goals.
As the United States, Europe and China come to recognize, to varying degrees, the growing strategic importance of finding new energy systems, the issue has moved from the domain of small fringe groups to the mainstream. The question, then, is: If climate change and oil use really are being addressed by the major energy consumers (including the United States, of all countries), will so many people and organizations remain intently focused on "saving" the climate?
The activists who first brought the current slate of energy issues to the fore are largely responsible for developing the structural remedies that industrialized countries are now turning to in response to strategic economic, national security and environmental concerns. As new players are now discussing these issues, however, the activists see themselves increasingly outside the decision-making process. The most idealistic of the lot, those who see their position eroding and their goals being co-opted, are about to launch the next major public crusade on energy policy -- one that focuses squarely on consumption and pays little attention to issues of power generation. The result will be a global energy conservation movement that could be bigger than the movement behind climate change. It could also offer tremendous financial rewards to innovators.
Successes and Failures
Realists and idealists in the environmental movement have long been on record calling for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions that would slow and then stop global warming. They portrayed a rise of 2 degrees Celsius in the Earth's temperature to mean the possible end of the humanity, or at least large portions of it. Activist groups stoked fears of the Chinese south coast, U.S. East Coast and much of Northern Europe under water. Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore spoke of the beginning of a new ice age.
Faced with this dire rhetoric, industry has offered a series of compromises that would achieve the preliminary goal of modestly cutting greenhouse gas emissions and that point toward dramatic future emission reductions. Industry's decision that it can address climate change, however, is the primary cause of the divide between those who defined the terms of the debate on energy policy, the realists and the idealists. When industry began to take the issue seriously, the ideals that made easy slogans met the institutions that knew the full depth of the challenges behind the slogans. How many windmills does it take to replace a single coal-fired power plant?
The current debate, then, can represent either a massive victory or abject defeat, depending on the activists' point of view.
On one hand are the idealists who have pressed for energy policies that dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, that work only toward renewable energy sources and that do not include either nuclear power or coal. They did not come all this way to see the revival of nuclear power, the perfection of "clean coal" technology or drastic subsidies for ethanol producers. Their activism was driven by a desire to spur a new economy. However, they are the ones who simultaneously say that climate change represents the possible end of the world, but that the situation is not so dire that we need to turn to proven solutions that happen to be very troublesome. For them, the current debate is a defeat. Industry's entry means the end of the game because it forces them to deal with the reality of what they are demanding.
On the other hand are the realists, those who work within the existing system to make attainable policies. For them, even those concerned by nuclear power, the current debate is a significant victory. For the first time since the 1970s, all of the major Western countries are working on policies that dramatically reduce their consumption of oil, and most are looking for alternatives to coal. Industry's entry into the issue is a dream come true for the realists because it is industry that has the knowledge and technology to make the changes the environmentalists demand.
And the realists are having a pretty good time of it. Innovative technology companies like Honeywell and Johnson Controls are in a pitched battle to develop the most efficient building environment control systems. Automakers are again advertising the fuel economy of their cars. Oil companies are lobbying parliaments for stricter caps on greenhouse gas emissions. In other words, the institutions with the wherewithal to solve complex problems are working to achieve the realists' long-standing objectives.
Europe Moving to Immediacy
What industry is not doing for the realists -- supporting their sense of urgency -- the Russians are doing through their energy blackmail of Europe. As idealistic as Europeans consider themselves, having their economies held hostage by Moscow is forcing the European public to look for swift, realistic answers to its energy problems.
In the months since Russia's move against Belarus, many European governments have embarked on energy paths that environmentalists do not consider perfect solutions -- but that would solve pressing problems. British Prime Minister Tony Blair's government called May 23 for a revival of the United Kingdom's nuclear industry, including the construction of five nuclear reactors by 2020. Finland has begun construction on a new nuclear plant, and Central European EU members are clamoring to get out from under their commitments to abandon nuclear energy as a condition of joining the union. Norway, for its part, continues to battle the Russians over the gas-rich Outer Continental Shelf in the Arctic (even while it imposes dramatic motor vehicle regulations on its drivers).
As with the U.S. move toward embracing climate change, Europeans have stopped looking for ideal or nearly ideal solutions. Like the United States, they are increasingly looking for secure energy sources as much as they are looking for carbon-reducing technologies. They are behaving as if the crisis is immediate.
China is largely in the same position as Europe vis-a-vis Russia, but its situation is exponentially more complex. While China is similar to the United States in that it can meet its energy needs with coal for more than a century, it cannot afford the pollution and other structural costs that have come with its constellation of coal-fired power plants. Meanwhile, for those concerned about climate change, China is a looming problem, set to pass the United States in greenhouse gas emissions in 2008.
China is desperate for new forms of energy, and the industrialized countries are desperate for China to find them. Unlike Europe, which until recently had been satisfied to tinker with inefficient but well-meaning attempts to change the fundamentals of energy production, China has not embraced less-efficient options like wind or solar power. It is far behind being able to satisfy demand, and it cannot afford to waste resources on concepts that feel good but do little.
As a result, China is emerging as a testing ground for the large-scale modern energy systems. Beijing is working out an agreement with Westinghouse to build advanced-technology nuclear reactors as a part of its drive to build as many as three new reactors a year for the next decade. Meanwhile, Western companies are investing heavily in developing coal-to-liquids technologies for China that would reduce the air pollution from using coal as a power source. Although environmentalists oppose both reactors and this latest coal technology, they are effective ways to solve energy problems.
What Comes Next
As is almost always the case, things have not worked out perfectly for the idealists (and, as they are idealists, this is to say things have not worked out at all). So where do they go from here? Having led the public to care about climate change only to be co-opted by industry, those dedicated to the attainment of the ideal energy system are regrouping around the issue of "sustainable consumption." The term, grown out of international environmental conferences, is defined by the Sierra Club as "the use of goods and services that satisfy basic needs and improve quality of life while minimizing the use of irreplaceable natural resources and the byproducts of toxic materials, waste and pollution."
The key elements of sustainable consumption are taxing consumption, taking a life-cycle view of a product's costs and increasing individual consumers' attention to these issues. The issue is a natural follow-on to the 10-year focus on energy generation, and can build on many of the same concepts.
The entry of industry into energy issues due to climate change policy and the pressure in Europe created by Russia's aggressiveness has driven the global energy policy past the inflection point -- and things are beginning to change. People everywhere are looking at energy and energy policy very differently than they did five years ago, and most nations are acting urgently to make fundamental changes. Because these changes have come quickly due to public pressure (rather than due to market forces, which tend to be slower), they have focused on what is available now to help move economies away from reliance on Russian natural gas and the creation of greenhouse gases. The result has been to make changes where it is easiest for governments to force action and for corporations to find market advantages.
Outside of automobile fuel-efficiency standards and moves by individual corporations and institutions to save energy, conservation has been looked at as a second-tier issue compared to generation. That is now going to change.
NATO, U.S.: Ballistic Missile Defense and a Display of Unity
Source: Stratfor
May 24, 2007 16 46 GMT
Summary
NATO is considering building a new ballistic missile defense site in southeastern Europe to protect its exposed flank. The announcement is a huge development in NATO-U.S. relations, which have been tense because the United States has been acting on its own for the past few years. Though not all the details of the system have been decided on or are even known, a move to cover this last Eastern European flank is a clear signal to Russia that Europe is theoretically protected under the U.S.-led NATO umbrella.
Analysis
NATO is considering building a new ballistic missile defense (BMD) site as an addition to the Greenland-U.K. radar system and the BMD system to be built in Poland and the Czech Republic. The new system will expand Europe's BMD shield, giving it greater relevance and covering short- to long-range threats to Europe's southern flank -- Turkey, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, the southern Balkans and southern Italy.
The idea of such a defense system has been circulating since 2002 but was not seriously considered until 2006. After a year of negotiations, the plan seems to be progressing; NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer met with U.S. President George W. Bush in Crawford, Texas, on May 21-22 to finalize plans for a June meeting of NATO foreign ministers on the topic in Oslo, Norway.
But why is this plan moving forward now -- especially since BMD has not yet been proven effective? The plan shows how NATO is thinking about the future; not only is it putting defense systems in place to guard against a threat from the Middle East (specifically, Iran), but NATO also is making Russia very aware there is a BMD system next door. Besides that, this is a very significant step in showing a strategic reintegration of NATO and the United States instead of the United States taking international defense matters into its own hands.
From a technical standpoint, a BMD system in southeastern Europe makes perfect sense. Though the United States has satellites designed to detect Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles' launch plumes, and those satellites can also spot missile launches elsewhere -- such as in Iran -- ground-based radars or specially modified Aegis warships must track the missiles' flight paths to make intercepts possible. Essentially, the sooner the system can see the target, the more time it has to intercept it, and the more accurately that intercept can be plotted. A BMD system in southeastern Europe would expand the European missile shield's field of vision.
(click to enlarge)
In his press conference with Bush, Scheffer said negotiations for the new BMD site should involve NATO as a whole, unlike U.S. negotiations for the sites in the Czech Republic and Poland. Washington did not wait for Europe to get on board with those talks, negotiating instead with the two European states themselves. While most of Europe is not against BMD per se, it did object to defense negotiations of this scale being conducted bilaterally instead of with NATO's European members as a whole.
This leads to another important fact about Europe's BMD shield. The interceptors to be based in Poland do not really protect Poland; they are designed for high-altitude intercepts outside the atmosphere (such as intercepts on a ballistic flight path toward the continental United States). In most cases, BMD systems are pushed beyond national borders and positioned much closer to the launch site; this is why the United States is basing missile interceptors in Alaska and Poland to protect the mainland United States. Anyway, Poland and the Czech Republic are far more interested in the protection a U.S. military base on their soil will bring than in the protection of a BMD shield.
Thus, a NATO BMD system in southeastern Europe becomes even more significant in that it will, theoretically, be in a position to protect Europe. Japan's position is a parallel to the BMD positioning requirements in Europe. Japan and the United States share a goal of protecting against a North Korean missile strike. However, their very different proximity to North Korea requires different foci. Interceptors to protect the United States can be stationed in Alaska; interceptors to protect Japan must be in Japan itself (and that might not even be close enough).
NATO's proposed BMD system will be a mutually beneficial arrangement with the United States: The southeastern Europe system will give the United States better coverage for its ground-based midcourse interceptors based in Poland and the Czech Republic, and Europe will have a layered missile shield for its own protection in its southeastern periphery. Plus, Washington holds pretty much all the cards in Western BMD research (even the Israeli Arrow system was a joint project), so NATO will not be doing much without U.S. consent and support in this department.
It will be interesting to find out whether the new BMD site was a European initiative or a U.S. initiative. If the Europeans pushed the plan forward, most of the key EU players would have had to agree on it. Furthermore, if the initiative came from the Europeans, it is not only a reaction to the growing Russian and Iranian threats, but also an indication that Europe does not want to be left out of U.S. security plans. (A wave has swept through Europe recently, giving it the most Washington-friendly atmosphere it has had in decades.) If Europe's major powers agreed to this new system, Russia will have almost no chance of playing Europe off the United States on defense issues as it has before.
If this is a U.S. initiative -- which seems more likely -- Russia could have an easier time turning certain European states against the U.S. plan, but it also means Washington has made a very clear choice for a military buildup to counter Russia. The United States already has shown that it is shifting its military sector from Western Europe to Eastern Europe, expanding its capabilities eastward and surrounding certain threats (Russia) with a military presence. This, along with the BMD bases, is a sign Washington is serious about expanding its reach and defensive capabilities.
Either way, Russia has made some recent and loud statements about military rejuvenation as it pulls out of various defense treaties, such as the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty and, later on, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. But the United States -- possibly with Europe on board -- has countered by moving in on Russia's western flank with BMD technology which, if it works as it is designed to, will seal off (in a very real way) Russian attempts to threaten the United States and Europe
May 24, 2007 16 46 GMT
Summary
NATO is considering building a new ballistic missile defense site in southeastern Europe to protect its exposed flank. The announcement is a huge development in NATO-U.S. relations, which have been tense because the United States has been acting on its own for the past few years. Though not all the details of the system have been decided on or are even known, a move to cover this last Eastern European flank is a clear signal to Russia that Europe is theoretically protected under the U.S.-led NATO umbrella.
Analysis
NATO is considering building a new ballistic missile defense (BMD) site as an addition to the Greenland-U.K. radar system and the BMD system to be built in Poland and the Czech Republic. The new system will expand Europe's BMD shield, giving it greater relevance and covering short- to long-range threats to Europe's southern flank -- Turkey, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, the southern Balkans and southern Italy.
The idea of such a defense system has been circulating since 2002 but was not seriously considered until 2006. After a year of negotiations, the plan seems to be progressing; NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer met with U.S. President George W. Bush in Crawford, Texas, on May 21-22 to finalize plans for a June meeting of NATO foreign ministers on the topic in Oslo, Norway.
But why is this plan moving forward now -- especially since BMD has not yet been proven effective? The plan shows how NATO is thinking about the future; not only is it putting defense systems in place to guard against a threat from the Middle East (specifically, Iran), but NATO also is making Russia very aware there is a BMD system next door. Besides that, this is a very significant step in showing a strategic reintegration of NATO and the United States instead of the United States taking international defense matters into its own hands.
From a technical standpoint, a BMD system in southeastern Europe makes perfect sense. Though the United States has satellites designed to detect Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles' launch plumes, and those satellites can also spot missile launches elsewhere -- such as in Iran -- ground-based radars or specially modified Aegis warships must track the missiles' flight paths to make intercepts possible. Essentially, the sooner the system can see the target, the more time it has to intercept it, and the more accurately that intercept can be plotted. A BMD system in southeastern Europe would expand the European missile shield's field of vision.
(click to enlarge)
In his press conference with Bush, Scheffer said negotiations for the new BMD site should involve NATO as a whole, unlike U.S. negotiations for the sites in the Czech Republic and Poland. Washington did not wait for Europe to get on board with those talks, negotiating instead with the two European states themselves. While most of Europe is not against BMD per se, it did object to defense negotiations of this scale being conducted bilaterally instead of with NATO's European members as a whole.
This leads to another important fact about Europe's BMD shield. The interceptors to be based in Poland do not really protect Poland; they are designed for high-altitude intercepts outside the atmosphere (such as intercepts on a ballistic flight path toward the continental United States). In most cases, BMD systems are pushed beyond national borders and positioned much closer to the launch site; this is why the United States is basing missile interceptors in Alaska and Poland to protect the mainland United States. Anyway, Poland and the Czech Republic are far more interested in the protection a U.S. military base on their soil will bring than in the protection of a BMD shield.
Thus, a NATO BMD system in southeastern Europe becomes even more significant in that it will, theoretically, be in a position to protect Europe. Japan's position is a parallel to the BMD positioning requirements in Europe. Japan and the United States share a goal of protecting against a North Korean missile strike. However, their very different proximity to North Korea requires different foci. Interceptors to protect the United States can be stationed in Alaska; interceptors to protect Japan must be in Japan itself (and that might not even be close enough).
NATO's proposed BMD system will be a mutually beneficial arrangement with the United States: The southeastern Europe system will give the United States better coverage for its ground-based midcourse interceptors based in Poland and the Czech Republic, and Europe will have a layered missile shield for its own protection in its southeastern periphery. Plus, Washington holds pretty much all the cards in Western BMD research (even the Israeli Arrow system was a joint project), so NATO will not be doing much without U.S. consent and support in this department.
It will be interesting to find out whether the new BMD site was a European initiative or a U.S. initiative. If the Europeans pushed the plan forward, most of the key EU players would have had to agree on it. Furthermore, if the initiative came from the Europeans, it is not only a reaction to the growing Russian and Iranian threats, but also an indication that Europe does not want to be left out of U.S. security plans. (A wave has swept through Europe recently, giving it the most Washington-friendly atmosphere it has had in decades.) If Europe's major powers agreed to this new system, Russia will have almost no chance of playing Europe off the United States on defense issues as it has before.
If this is a U.S. initiative -- which seems more likely -- Russia could have an easier time turning certain European states against the U.S. plan, but it also means Washington has made a very clear choice for a military buildup to counter Russia. The United States already has shown that it is shifting its military sector from Western Europe to Eastern Europe, expanding its capabilities eastward and surrounding certain threats (Russia) with a military presence. This, along with the BMD bases, is a sign Washington is serious about expanding its reach and defensive capabilities.
Either way, Russia has made some recent and loud statements about military rejuvenation as it pulls out of various defense treaties, such as the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty and, later on, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. But the United States -- possibly with Europe on board -- has countered by moving in on Russia's western flank with BMD technology which, if it works as it is designed to, will seal off (in a very real way) Russian attempts to threaten the United States and Europe
Global Market Brief: Fear, War, Smog, Storms and the Price of Summer Vacation
Source: Stratfor
May 24, 2007 20 26 GMT
Every summer, gasoline prices in the United States go up. This is not because oil tycoons get frisky and realize they can squeeze a little bit more from the people driving to the nearest park with bicycles strapped to the tops of their sport utility vehicles; it is the sum of a variety of mostly structural factors within the U.S. system that are susceptible to natural disasters, along with the risk factors that vary every summer and make the oil market susceptible to unrest, wars and rumors of war.
The good news is that this summer, a few of the key risk factors that inflate crude oil prices with panic premiums could subside -- such as violence in Nigeria, which should wane in the wake of national elections, and tensions between the United States and Iran over Iraq's future, which could be settled in talks soon. If all the stars align, there could even be a rare downward step adjustment in crude prices. The bad news -- aside from the unlikelihood of the stars aligning -- is that a world without strife would still have hurricanes.
Before looking at the specifics of this summer, it is worth reviewing why prices tend to pick up in March and spike around Memorial Day each year, remaining high until they begin to fall in November. Besides the obvious uptick in gasoline demand (first in the spring when farmers hit planting season and then for pleasure driving and vacations as days become longer and sunnier), one culprit for a spike in U.S. prices at the pump is smog -- or rather, how our federal and local governments react to it.
In winter, the standard gasoline is one of about three blends. In the summer, to reduce smog, a crisscross of federal and local government standards mandate special blends. These requirements are not in harmony; myriad blends are mandated and sometimes differ from one part of a state to another (as in California and Texas), depending in part on a location's temperature, altitude and urban density -- that is, the extent to which volatile organic compounds in fuel are likely to evaporate, and the extent to which the air in that place is already unhealthy. Even areas that have similar characteristics request different summer blends.
This variety of requirements results in the inefficient production of boutique blends -- and refineries initially tend to err on the side of caution, producing enough to meet the low end of estimated demand or adding additives to each blend as the trucks are filled rather than ending up with too much of a blend that no one else in the country will buy. Summer additives also tend to be more expensive than winter blend components. (The Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Energy will release a "Fuel System Requirements Harmonization Study" in 2008. States probably will not want to give up their individual powers to regulate, however -- and new legislative authority would be needed at the federal level to overcome the boutique fuels phenomenon.)
Thus, as the switch is made from winter to summer blends, prices go up. Then, as the summer driving season begins, demand surges and prices stay high. The U.S. system is equipped to handle the boutique blends, so they do not pose the threat of shortages or worse price spikes -- unless there is an unexpected disruption in the supply chain by, say, an immense storm that hits the majority of U.S. refineries in the Gulf of Mexico. The government has demonstrated it can be flexible when a real disaster strikes; after Hurricane Katrina, the Bush administration temporarily waived the air quality standards requiring the variety of blends, which helped mitigate price spikes.
Another factor that can affect summer gasoline prices is oil and gasoline inventories. The Energy Department released its inventory report May 23, and the numbers were not as grim as feared. Although gasoline inventories are still 7 percent below their five-year average for this time of year, they have been climbing rapidly since April, following a three-month period of unexpected refinery fires and other problems on top of regular spring maintenance. Crude oil inventories are actually 7.6 percent above their five-year average, so there is plenty to draw from as refineries play catch-up. There are relatively few giant refineries in the United States, however, so each time one goes offline it is a significant concern. And contrary to the stories of conspiracy theorists, who claim oil companies choose not to build more refineries because they want to keep prices up, the actual reason is the difficulty of overcoming "not-in-my-backyard" campaigns bolstered by environmentalists whenever a new refinery is proposed.
This summer's bad news is that experts expect the hurricane season to be worse than average. Then again, in 2006 these same experts predicted a repeat of 2005 and, instead, El Nino caused a very mild storm season. A direct hit on refining infrastructure still recuperating from Katrina in 2005 is not very likely. However, the possibility remains and makes those who trade on risks jittery -- which brings us to the price of crude.
The price of Nymex crude is hovering around $65 per barrel. The average person can rattle off the reasons for this high price: their names are Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Almost every country that produces oil in large quantities is either nationalizing its energy sector (which tends to limit production) or is a political mess (or at risk of quickly becoming one). Then factor in the U.S.-jihadist war, hurricanes, pirates (yes, pirates -- though mostly around Africa and Southeast Asia, not in the Caribbean). And while these concerns about reliable supplies run rampant, world demand is increasing, driven by growing economies worldwide -- particularly China and India, the voracious newcomers to the global resource buffet.
It generally costs less than $32.50 to produce and transport a barrel of oil; the price of oil is floating on a cushion of fear-driven speculation. Even though there has not been an oil supply crisis for more than three decades, when buyers order for future delivery, they are willing to pay top dollar now on the chance that, if they wait, some catastrophe will drive prices far higher.
The circumstances behind anxiety-based oil prices are not likely to get a whole lot worse this year -- and, in some ways, they are getting better. Nigeria is over the worst of the election-driven attacks against oil infrastructure that reduced its output by one-third this year, and that production is beginning to come back on line. After a period of post-election calm, militant attacks are likely to increase later in the summer, but chances are that things will not get quite as bad as they were. In addition, Iran and the United States appear to be finally ready to sit down together and hammer out a deal on Iraq. The first direct and public bilateral talks are scheduled to take place May 28. If this process succeeds -- and, of course, many things could disrupt it -- it still remains to be seen whether the violence in Iraq can be tamed. However, the oil flow from Iraq mostly depends not on peace in the Sunni triangle but on revenue-sharing arrangements among Iraq's various interest groups and regions, which a deal with Iran could help solidify. And, of course, a deal with Iran would decrease the already slight likelihood of a U.S. airstrike against Iran or -- the nightmare scenario -- of conflict in the Persian Gulf leading to an obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil traders do not tend to lower prices incrementally as things get gradually better -- only to raise them in fits as their fears are played upon. This means that, from time to time, there is a significant correction -- a sharp drop in oil prices. While we are not prepared to forecast such an adjustment this year, it seems to be more likely than the fruition of the worst fears propping up the current price.
One other thing to note: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is back, in a light kind of way. That is, OPEC countries have actually begun pumping below capacity again -- something that has not happened for years. The flip side to this is that OPEC no longer controls nearly as much of total global production as it did in the 1970s. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia does not really want to curtail its production and Venezuela cannot afford to. So, while it is something to watch, OPEC is no longer the main issue.
Overall, while gasoline prices will not be kind this summer, they probably will not behave erratically. The main variables that would disrupt this equation are a very nasty hurricane or relative peace in the Middle East. One of those sounds a little more plausible than the other.
CHINA: China's new State Investment Co. surprised global markets May 20 by announcing a planned purchase of a 9.9 percent stake in U.S. private equity player the Blackstone Group. This move proved China's ability to outsmart the markets (as far as the management of its $1.2 trillion of foreign exchange reserves) and its ability to carry out internal economic reforms while mitigating adverse global market effects. Blackstone is the first foreign equity purchase made with Chinese state foreign reserves, but it will not likely be the last. Watch out for new Chinese foreign exchange reserve-funded purchases in other foreign financial intermediaries next.
RUSSIA: Russian nickel company Norilsk Nickel raised its offer for Canadian mining company LionOre Mining International Ltd. to $6.3 billion May 23, trumping a bid by rival Swiss company Xstrata of $5.7 billion. Norilsk Nickel's bid comes with the blessing of the Kremlin, which is expected eventually to solidify its control over the company and thus ensure Norilsk Nickel has access to whatever funding it needs to expand abroad. Norilsk Nickel already holds around an 18 percent stake in the global market for nickel production. By the time the Kremlin consolidates control over the company, it could find itself with an even larger and richer prize.
FRANCE: France will eventually sell its 15 percent stake in the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Co. (EADS), the parent company of aircraft maker Airbus, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said May 18. Though Airbus has experienced a bout of major setbacks, France's political desire to have a European aerospace champion has almost guaranteed its continued existence, and the company has been subsidized with almost $15 billion worth of EU funds. However, the new French government has promised to reform many of the problems weighing France down. Sarkozy's statement that the French government might pull out of EADS altogether suggests that Airbus' key government support is waning -- and that its lifetime could be limited.
AFRICA: The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) approved a common external tariff system May 23 at a meeting in Kenya. The agreement lowers tariffs for COMESA countries to 10 percent for intermediate products and 25 percent for finished goods, and eliminates tariffs on capital goods and raw materials. The agreement brings COMESA closer to implementing a customs union in 2008 that would allow the 20-state bloc to operate commercially like the European Union. Seven COMESA states have yet to join the free trade area launched in 2000, citing revenue losses and competition from more advanced states. The common tariff system will make trade among member states more efficient, and a customs union would improve COMESA's ability to compete with larger economies.
AUSTRALIA: Australian Prime Minister John Howard announced May 22 that Australia will transfer monopoly control of wheat exports from the scandal-engulfed AWB Ltd. (formerly known as the Australian Wheat Board) to a grower-owned company by mid-2008. An independent task force is investigating a claim that AWB paid $224 million in bribes between 1999 and 2003 to former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's government. Though the move will benefit farm groups by transferring ownership back to the growers, the continuation of the single-desk structure likely will anger the U.S. farm lobby, which has long opposed the system. The move will benefit Howard domestically by strengthening his coalition and bolstering support from farmers in an election year. The group most negatively affected by the new deal will be nongrower investors in the AWB, who will have no stake in the new company.
IRAN: Gasoline prices in Iran increased by 25 percent May 22. Iranian state news agency IRNA reported that Interior Minister Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi said rationing will begin around June 5. The increase -- which follows a May 20 announcement that the government would not raise fuel prices -- is part of Tehran's efforts to reduce state subsidies for gasoline and discourage smugglers who have been buying fuel at Iran's relatively low price and sneaking it out of the country to sell. The pragmatic conservative establishment, led by Expediency Council head Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, likely designed the move to create problems for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's administration as part of an effort to weaken his faction's influence in the government.
IRAQ/U.S./UAE: Halliburton is considering $80 billion in projects around the globe as it rethinks its exit from Iraq, Halliburton CEO Dave Lesar said May 22. Lesar forecasts Halliburton investments in the Eastern Hemisphere -- including the Middle East, Russia, Africa, East Asia and the North Sea -- to hover around 70 percent of total capital investment over the next five years. Halliburton also has shown a willingness to sign deals with certain state actors or companies in the Middle East and Russia that the international community frowns upon. Lesar's hint that the company will reconsider its exit from Iraq indicates Halliburton is expecting a political settlement in Iraq that will allow energy majors to re-enter the reconstruction process.
MERCOSUR: Mercosur members' foreign affairs and economy ministers announced some details about the proposed Banco del Sur on May 22. Most important is that the development bank will have equal representation and capital share from its seven members, with the initial capital likely totaling between $2 billion and $3 billion. At least initially, the bank will be capable of development lending, but not of bailing out countries in the event of a serious economic shock. This is a blow to the vision of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who -- with support from Argentina, Ecuador and Bolivia -- has for months proposed Banco del Sur as an alternative to the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank. Brazil's involvement in Banco del Sur has created the terms to keep the bank tame.
BOLIVIA/BRAZIL: Bolivia said May 23 it will compensate Brazilian state oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro $112 million for the nationalization of two refineries by June 10. Brazil indicated May 21 that it would accept natural gas instead of cash as payment, but then said unless the first payment is made by June 11, the matter will be tabled. Talks over the compensation were troubled; Brazil threatened to suspend investment in Bolivia if fair compensation was not offered, while Bolivia threatened to expropriate the facilities if its offers were rejected. The compensation agreement is important to both countries, but more so to Bolivia: Brazil is a key investor in Bolivia and purchases about 25 million cubic meters of natural gas daily -- nearly two-thirds of Bolivian output.
May 24, 2007 20 26 GMT
Every summer, gasoline prices in the United States go up. This is not because oil tycoons get frisky and realize they can squeeze a little bit more from the people driving to the nearest park with bicycles strapped to the tops of their sport utility vehicles; it is the sum of a variety of mostly structural factors within the U.S. system that are susceptible to natural disasters, along with the risk factors that vary every summer and make the oil market susceptible to unrest, wars and rumors of war.
The good news is that this summer, a few of the key risk factors that inflate crude oil prices with panic premiums could subside -- such as violence in Nigeria, which should wane in the wake of national elections, and tensions between the United States and Iran over Iraq's future, which could be settled in talks soon. If all the stars align, there could even be a rare downward step adjustment in crude prices. The bad news -- aside from the unlikelihood of the stars aligning -- is that a world without strife would still have hurricanes.
Before looking at the specifics of this summer, it is worth reviewing why prices tend to pick up in March and spike around Memorial Day each year, remaining high until they begin to fall in November. Besides the obvious uptick in gasoline demand (first in the spring when farmers hit planting season and then for pleasure driving and vacations as days become longer and sunnier), one culprit for a spike in U.S. prices at the pump is smog -- or rather, how our federal and local governments react to it.
In winter, the standard gasoline is one of about three blends. In the summer, to reduce smog, a crisscross of federal and local government standards mandate special blends. These requirements are not in harmony; myriad blends are mandated and sometimes differ from one part of a state to another (as in California and Texas), depending in part on a location's temperature, altitude and urban density -- that is, the extent to which volatile organic compounds in fuel are likely to evaporate, and the extent to which the air in that place is already unhealthy. Even areas that have similar characteristics request different summer blends.
This variety of requirements results in the inefficient production of boutique blends -- and refineries initially tend to err on the side of caution, producing enough to meet the low end of estimated demand or adding additives to each blend as the trucks are filled rather than ending up with too much of a blend that no one else in the country will buy. Summer additives also tend to be more expensive than winter blend components. (The Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Energy will release a "Fuel System Requirements Harmonization Study" in 2008. States probably will not want to give up their individual powers to regulate, however -- and new legislative authority would be needed at the federal level to overcome the boutique fuels phenomenon.)
Thus, as the switch is made from winter to summer blends, prices go up. Then, as the summer driving season begins, demand surges and prices stay high. The U.S. system is equipped to handle the boutique blends, so they do not pose the threat of shortages or worse price spikes -- unless there is an unexpected disruption in the supply chain by, say, an immense storm that hits the majority of U.S. refineries in the Gulf of Mexico. The government has demonstrated it can be flexible when a real disaster strikes; after Hurricane Katrina, the Bush administration temporarily waived the air quality standards requiring the variety of blends, which helped mitigate price spikes.
Another factor that can affect summer gasoline prices is oil and gasoline inventories. The Energy Department released its inventory report May 23, and the numbers were not as grim as feared. Although gasoline inventories are still 7 percent below their five-year average for this time of year, they have been climbing rapidly since April, following a three-month period of unexpected refinery fires and other problems on top of regular spring maintenance. Crude oil inventories are actually 7.6 percent above their five-year average, so there is plenty to draw from as refineries play catch-up. There are relatively few giant refineries in the United States, however, so each time one goes offline it is a significant concern. And contrary to the stories of conspiracy theorists, who claim oil companies choose not to build more refineries because they want to keep prices up, the actual reason is the difficulty of overcoming "not-in-my-backyard" campaigns bolstered by environmentalists whenever a new refinery is proposed.
This summer's bad news is that experts expect the hurricane season to be worse than average. Then again, in 2006 these same experts predicted a repeat of 2005 and, instead, El Nino caused a very mild storm season. A direct hit on refining infrastructure still recuperating from Katrina in 2005 is not very likely. However, the possibility remains and makes those who trade on risks jittery -- which brings us to the price of crude.
The price of Nymex crude is hovering around $65 per barrel. The average person can rattle off the reasons for this high price: their names are Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Almost every country that produces oil in large quantities is either nationalizing its energy sector (which tends to limit production) or is a political mess (or at risk of quickly becoming one). Then factor in the U.S.-jihadist war, hurricanes, pirates (yes, pirates -- though mostly around Africa and Southeast Asia, not in the Caribbean). And while these concerns about reliable supplies run rampant, world demand is increasing, driven by growing economies worldwide -- particularly China and India, the voracious newcomers to the global resource buffet.
It generally costs less than $32.50 to produce and transport a barrel of oil; the price of oil is floating on a cushion of fear-driven speculation. Even though there has not been an oil supply crisis for more than three decades, when buyers order for future delivery, they are willing to pay top dollar now on the chance that, if they wait, some catastrophe will drive prices far higher.
The circumstances behind anxiety-based oil prices are not likely to get a whole lot worse this year -- and, in some ways, they are getting better. Nigeria is over the worst of the election-driven attacks against oil infrastructure that reduced its output by one-third this year, and that production is beginning to come back on line. After a period of post-election calm, militant attacks are likely to increase later in the summer, but chances are that things will not get quite as bad as they were. In addition, Iran and the United States appear to be finally ready to sit down together and hammer out a deal on Iraq. The first direct and public bilateral talks are scheduled to take place May 28. If this process succeeds -- and, of course, many things could disrupt it -- it still remains to be seen whether the violence in Iraq can be tamed. However, the oil flow from Iraq mostly depends not on peace in the Sunni triangle but on revenue-sharing arrangements among Iraq's various interest groups and regions, which a deal with Iran could help solidify. And, of course, a deal with Iran would decrease the already slight likelihood of a U.S. airstrike against Iran or -- the nightmare scenario -- of conflict in the Persian Gulf leading to an obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil traders do not tend to lower prices incrementally as things get gradually better -- only to raise them in fits as their fears are played upon. This means that, from time to time, there is a significant correction -- a sharp drop in oil prices. While we are not prepared to forecast such an adjustment this year, it seems to be more likely than the fruition of the worst fears propping up the current price.
One other thing to note: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is back, in a light kind of way. That is, OPEC countries have actually begun pumping below capacity again -- something that has not happened for years. The flip side to this is that OPEC no longer controls nearly as much of total global production as it did in the 1970s. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia does not really want to curtail its production and Venezuela cannot afford to. So, while it is something to watch, OPEC is no longer the main issue.
Overall, while gasoline prices will not be kind this summer, they probably will not behave erratically. The main variables that would disrupt this equation are a very nasty hurricane or relative peace in the Middle East. One of those sounds a little more plausible than the other.
CHINA: China's new State Investment Co. surprised global markets May 20 by announcing a planned purchase of a 9.9 percent stake in U.S. private equity player the Blackstone Group. This move proved China's ability to outsmart the markets (as far as the management of its $1.2 trillion of foreign exchange reserves) and its ability to carry out internal economic reforms while mitigating adverse global market effects. Blackstone is the first foreign equity purchase made with Chinese state foreign reserves, but it will not likely be the last. Watch out for new Chinese foreign exchange reserve-funded purchases in other foreign financial intermediaries next.
RUSSIA: Russian nickel company Norilsk Nickel raised its offer for Canadian mining company LionOre Mining International Ltd. to $6.3 billion May 23, trumping a bid by rival Swiss company Xstrata of $5.7 billion. Norilsk Nickel's bid comes with the blessing of the Kremlin, which is expected eventually to solidify its control over the company and thus ensure Norilsk Nickel has access to whatever funding it needs to expand abroad. Norilsk Nickel already holds around an 18 percent stake in the global market for nickel production. By the time the Kremlin consolidates control over the company, it could find itself with an even larger and richer prize.
FRANCE: France will eventually sell its 15 percent stake in the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Co. (EADS), the parent company of aircraft maker Airbus, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said May 18. Though Airbus has experienced a bout of major setbacks, France's political desire to have a European aerospace champion has almost guaranteed its continued existence, and the company has been subsidized with almost $15 billion worth of EU funds. However, the new French government has promised to reform many of the problems weighing France down. Sarkozy's statement that the French government might pull out of EADS altogether suggests that Airbus' key government support is waning -- and that its lifetime could be limited.
AFRICA: The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) approved a common external tariff system May 23 at a meeting in Kenya. The agreement lowers tariffs for COMESA countries to 10 percent for intermediate products and 25 percent for finished goods, and eliminates tariffs on capital goods and raw materials. The agreement brings COMESA closer to implementing a customs union in 2008 that would allow the 20-state bloc to operate commercially like the European Union. Seven COMESA states have yet to join the free trade area launched in 2000, citing revenue losses and competition from more advanced states. The common tariff system will make trade among member states more efficient, and a customs union would improve COMESA's ability to compete with larger economies.
AUSTRALIA: Australian Prime Minister John Howard announced May 22 that Australia will transfer monopoly control of wheat exports from the scandal-engulfed AWB Ltd. (formerly known as the Australian Wheat Board) to a grower-owned company by mid-2008. An independent task force is investigating a claim that AWB paid $224 million in bribes between 1999 and 2003 to former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's government. Though the move will benefit farm groups by transferring ownership back to the growers, the continuation of the single-desk structure likely will anger the U.S. farm lobby, which has long opposed the system. The move will benefit Howard domestically by strengthening his coalition and bolstering support from farmers in an election year. The group most negatively affected by the new deal will be nongrower investors in the AWB, who will have no stake in the new company.
IRAN: Gasoline prices in Iran increased by 25 percent May 22. Iranian state news agency IRNA reported that Interior Minister Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi said rationing will begin around June 5. The increase -- which follows a May 20 announcement that the government would not raise fuel prices -- is part of Tehran's efforts to reduce state subsidies for gasoline and discourage smugglers who have been buying fuel at Iran's relatively low price and sneaking it out of the country to sell. The pragmatic conservative establishment, led by Expediency Council head Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, likely designed the move to create problems for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's administration as part of an effort to weaken his faction's influence in the government.
IRAQ/U.S./UAE: Halliburton is considering $80 billion in projects around the globe as it rethinks its exit from Iraq, Halliburton CEO Dave Lesar said May 22. Lesar forecasts Halliburton investments in the Eastern Hemisphere -- including the Middle East, Russia, Africa, East Asia and the North Sea -- to hover around 70 percent of total capital investment over the next five years. Halliburton also has shown a willingness to sign deals with certain state actors or companies in the Middle East and Russia that the international community frowns upon. Lesar's hint that the company will reconsider its exit from Iraq indicates Halliburton is expecting a political settlement in Iraq that will allow energy majors to re-enter the reconstruction process.
MERCOSUR: Mercosur members' foreign affairs and economy ministers announced some details about the proposed Banco del Sur on May 22. Most important is that the development bank will have equal representation and capital share from its seven members, with the initial capital likely totaling between $2 billion and $3 billion. At least initially, the bank will be capable of development lending, but not of bailing out countries in the event of a serious economic shock. This is a blow to the vision of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who -- with support from Argentina, Ecuador and Bolivia -- has for months proposed Banco del Sur as an alternative to the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank. Brazil's involvement in Banco del Sur has created the terms to keep the bank tame.
BOLIVIA/BRAZIL: Bolivia said May 23 it will compensate Brazilian state oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro $112 million for the nationalization of two refineries by June 10. Brazil indicated May 21 that it would accept natural gas instead of cash as payment, but then said unless the first payment is made by June 11, the matter will be tabled. Talks over the compensation were troubled; Brazil threatened to suspend investment in Bolivia if fair compensation was not offered, while Bolivia threatened to expropriate the facilities if its offers were rejected. The compensation agreement is important to both countries, but more so to Bolivia: Brazil is a key investor in Bolivia and purchases about 25 million cubic meters of natural gas daily -- nearly two-thirds of Bolivian output.
A Chennai seminar Ram Sethu campaign gains momentum
From the Front Page
By Sankara Mahadevan
Multi-disciplinary experts establish that Ram Sethu is ancient and it is man-made .
Heat in Chennai was on the increase in more than one sense last week. As mercury relentlessly rose about 200 journalists were arrested for trying to take out a protest march condemning the killing of three employees of Dinakaran, a Tamil daily owned by the ruling DMK chief's family, allegedly by supporters of a member of the same family.
On the same day i.e. May 12, far from the heat and dust, experts of several disciplines converged in the city and dared to look beyond the present; they deliberated upon the possible havocs in case Ram Sethu is destroyed. The air was thick with rumours that Ram Sethu might be blasted if dredging becomes difficult on the rough sea. The lone dredger on job had been brought to the shore the previous day. The solemn meet was an International Seminar on Scientific Security Aspects of Sethu Samudram Project (SSCP) organised by Rameswaram Ram Sethu Protection Movement (RRSPM).
Justice Parvat Rao, retired judge of Andhra Pradesh High Court, summed up the mood of the seminar thus: "Marine specialists here have shown that Ram Sethu is man-made and archaeologists have established that it is ancient. So Ram Sethu is a monument. Article 51-A of the Constitution of India says that protection of heritage handed down to us is the duty of the citizens. Supreme Court has said that the duty of the citizens is the duty of the state (the government). In the case of Ram Sethu, the government is too rash—it shows defiant disregard for danger or consequences—and it seems bent upon destroying the monument. So, Ram Sethu should be declared a national monument at the earliest".
The learned judge wanted that the facts that emeged in the seminar should be taken to the people in a language that they understand. Members of Parliamernt should be educated on this. He wished that the Movement (RRSPM) gains momentum, so that people could be saved from perils.
Prof. Madhav Das Nalapat, Professor of Geopolitics, Academy of Higher Education, Manila University, rubbished the argument in certain circles: "Why bother about the fate of a bridge built by a man from Uttar Pradesh in Tamil Nadu?' He said Tamil Nadu cannot survive without Bharat and Bharat cannot survive without Tamil Nadu. Bharat is one country and it is great. He warned that cost of hydrocarbon fuel that we need (80 percent of which is dependent on imports) has increased while our nuclear plan is under-funded. He hinted that loss of Thorium by destruction of Ram Sethu would be debilitating.
Dr S. Badrinarayanan, Geologist and consultant, National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT), introduced himself as a field scientist and asserted that there is hard evidence to prove the existence of Ram Sethu. Ocean bed bore tests show that the ridge is man-made and it is an engineering marvel, added Badrinarayanan.
Prof. C.S.P. Iyer, executive director, Centre for Marine Analytical Reference and Standards, Thiruananthapuram, stressed the need to conserve the marine bio reserve in the placid Mannar sea, extolled by the UN. This, he pointed out, owes its existence to the Ram Sethu. Nowhere else in the world there are 3,600 species of marine life in one place as found close to the Ram Sethu. The Professor dwelt at length on the effects of silts, prohibitive cost, absence of any tsunami precaution and turbulence of Bay of Bengal in the shipping canal project. He called for a scientific study of the environs before the shipping canal project could progress.
Shri V. Sundaram, IAS (retd.), first chairman of Tuticorin Port Trust (the organisation that is now in charge of the Sethu Samudram Project), said that the Prime Minister will have to face an enquiry under another regime tomorrow for not referring the vital queries (regarding absence of safeguards against tsunami) raised by Tad. S. Murthy to the Ministry of Shipping but to the Tuticorin Port Trust, a mere executing body. "I smell a rat in the whole affair," he said.
Captain (retd.) H. Balakrishnan of the Indian Navy, forcefully argued the security risks in the shipping canal use, citing the recently added 'Air Arm' of the LTTE that has conducted three raids on Sri Lankan assets last month.
Shri T. Satyamurthy, former director of archaeology, Government of Kerala, pointed out that ancient Romans who engaged in trade on the west coast could not navigate to the east coast via the Palk strait obviously because of the presence of Ram Sethu. The prevalence of the same culture on either end of the Ram Sethu proved by the Rameswaram temple associated with Shri Ram on the Bharat's end and the Tiruketeesawra temple associated with Mandodari, Ravana's wife, on the Sri Lankan end shows that the zone was culturally united. The sea is knee deep along the Ram Sethu and that made passage of people easy and of ships impossible across the strait.
Shri D. Kuppuramu, advocate, Zilla Sanghchalak of Ramanarth-puram and convenor of Rameswaram Ram Sethu Protection Movement, who presided over the seminar, appealed to all well meaning persons to implead themselves in cases filed so far—one at the Supreme Court, one at Madras High Court, recently by Hindu Munnani founder Shri Rama Gopalan and one at the sub court in Ramanathapuram—all seeking protection of Ram Sethu.
Shri M.S. Karunanidhi, a resident of Rameswaram, who could see Ram Sethu revealed completely the day after December 26, 2004 tsunami, cited earliest Tamil print evidences with mention of Ram Sethu in them.
Shri T.V. Rangarajan, organising secretary for South India, Akhil Bharatiya Itihas Sankalan Yojana and a Tamil scholar listed literary evidences dating back to more than 2,000 year mentioning Sethu built by Shri Ram. Sethupatis of Ramanathapuram, the rulers of the area, were indeed appointed by Shri Ram himself to guard Ram Sethu, as per the local traditions, he said. Pauraniks in ancient Tamil Nadu went from place to place lecturing on Setu Puranam, an ancient literary work in Tamil, Rangarajan added.
Shri Tad S. Murthy, vice president of the Tsunami Society of Ottawa, USA, the expert who was commissioned by Shipping Ministry (and whose advice that the project include precautionary steps against Tsunami was ignored), had sent his best wishes for the success of the seminar. The message of greetings from Dr S.R. Rao, founder, Society of Marine Archaeology in India, was also read out at the seminar. Dr Rao was to inaugurate the seminar but he could not make it to Chennai owing to ill health.
Ram Sethu, a compilation edited by Dr S. Kalyanaraman, director, Saraswati River Project, that includes the papers presented at the Chennai seminar, was released at the seminar. It is priced at Rs 600. Dignitaries who were among the audience included former ministers S. Tirunavukkarasar and Dr H.V. Hande, Shri K. Surynarayana Rao, senior functionary of RSS, Dr Subramanian Swamy of Janata Party and Shri L. Ganeshan, state president of BJP.
http://www.organiser.org/
Note on URLs for: e-book, ppt, video
Rama Setu: 315 page e-book (5.2mb)
The book presents multiple facets of the Setu Samudram Channel Project and evidences for Rama Setu as a monument of international importance. Click
Rama Setu: Powerpoint 37 slides (6 mb)
36 slides on Rama Setu and Setu Samudram Channel Project, a plea for realignment without cutting through Rama Setu which should be protected as a monument of international importance. Click
Mirror: Click
Download the file in wmv format (can be played through windows media player), please right click this link and save the link or save the target in your desktop. (14.5 mb) CLICK
To view / listen to the PodMagazine:
By Sankara Mahadevan
Multi-disciplinary experts establish that Ram Sethu is ancient and it is man-made .
Heat in Chennai was on the increase in more than one sense last week. As mercury relentlessly rose about 200 journalists were arrested for trying to take out a protest march condemning the killing of three employees of Dinakaran, a Tamil daily owned by the ruling DMK chief's family, allegedly by supporters of a member of the same family.
On the same day i.e. May 12, far from the heat and dust, experts of several disciplines converged in the city and dared to look beyond the present; they deliberated upon the possible havocs in case Ram Sethu is destroyed. The air was thick with rumours that Ram Sethu might be blasted if dredging becomes difficult on the rough sea. The lone dredger on job had been brought to the shore the previous day. The solemn meet was an International Seminar on Scientific Security Aspects of Sethu Samudram Project (SSCP) organised by Rameswaram Ram Sethu Protection Movement (RRSPM).
Justice Parvat Rao, retired judge of Andhra Pradesh High Court, summed up the mood of the seminar thus: "Marine specialists here have shown that Ram Sethu is man-made and archaeologists have established that it is ancient. So Ram Sethu is a monument. Article 51-A of the Constitution of India says that protection of heritage handed down to us is the duty of the citizens. Supreme Court has said that the duty of the citizens is the duty of the state (the government). In the case of Ram Sethu, the government is too rash—it shows defiant disregard for danger or consequences—and it seems bent upon destroying the monument. So, Ram Sethu should be declared a national monument at the earliest".
The learned judge wanted that the facts that emeged in the seminar should be taken to the people in a language that they understand. Members of Parliamernt should be educated on this. He wished that the Movement (RRSPM) gains momentum, so that people could be saved from perils.
Prof. Madhav Das Nalapat, Professor of Geopolitics, Academy of Higher Education, Manila University, rubbished the argument in certain circles: "Why bother about the fate of a bridge built by a man from Uttar Pradesh in Tamil Nadu?' He said Tamil Nadu cannot survive without Bharat and Bharat cannot survive without Tamil Nadu. Bharat is one country and it is great. He warned that cost of hydrocarbon fuel that we need (80 percent of which is dependent on imports) has increased while our nuclear plan is under-funded. He hinted that loss of Thorium by destruction of Ram Sethu would be debilitating.
Dr S. Badrinarayanan, Geologist and consultant, National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT), introduced himself as a field scientist and asserted that there is hard evidence to prove the existence of Ram Sethu. Ocean bed bore tests show that the ridge is man-made and it is an engineering marvel, added Badrinarayanan.
Prof. C.S.P. Iyer, executive director, Centre for Marine Analytical Reference and Standards, Thiruananthapuram, stressed the need to conserve the marine bio reserve in the placid Mannar sea, extolled by the UN. This, he pointed out, owes its existence to the Ram Sethu. Nowhere else in the world there are 3,600 species of marine life in one place as found close to the Ram Sethu. The Professor dwelt at length on the effects of silts, prohibitive cost, absence of any tsunami precaution and turbulence of Bay of Bengal in the shipping canal project. He called for a scientific study of the environs before the shipping canal project could progress.
Shri V. Sundaram, IAS (retd.), first chairman of Tuticorin Port Trust (the organisation that is now in charge of the Sethu Samudram Project), said that the Prime Minister will have to face an enquiry under another regime tomorrow for not referring the vital queries (regarding absence of safeguards against tsunami) raised by Tad. S. Murthy to the Ministry of Shipping but to the Tuticorin Port Trust, a mere executing body. "I smell a rat in the whole affair," he said.
Captain (retd.) H. Balakrishnan of the Indian Navy, forcefully argued the security risks in the shipping canal use, citing the recently added 'Air Arm' of the LTTE that has conducted three raids on Sri Lankan assets last month.
Shri T. Satyamurthy, former director of archaeology, Government of Kerala, pointed out that ancient Romans who engaged in trade on the west coast could not navigate to the east coast via the Palk strait obviously because of the presence of Ram Sethu. The prevalence of the same culture on either end of the Ram Sethu proved by the Rameswaram temple associated with Shri Ram on the Bharat's end and the Tiruketeesawra temple associated with Mandodari, Ravana's wife, on the Sri Lankan end shows that the zone was culturally united. The sea is knee deep along the Ram Sethu and that made passage of people easy and of ships impossible across the strait.
Shri D. Kuppuramu, advocate, Zilla Sanghchalak of Ramanarth-puram and convenor of Rameswaram Ram Sethu Protection Movement, who presided over the seminar, appealed to all well meaning persons to implead themselves in cases filed so far—one at the Supreme Court, one at Madras High Court, recently by Hindu Munnani founder Shri Rama Gopalan and one at the sub court in Ramanathapuram—all seeking protection of Ram Sethu.
Shri M.S. Karunanidhi, a resident of Rameswaram, who could see Ram Sethu revealed completely the day after December 26, 2004 tsunami, cited earliest Tamil print evidences with mention of Ram Sethu in them.
Shri T.V. Rangarajan, organising secretary for South India, Akhil Bharatiya Itihas Sankalan Yojana and a Tamil scholar listed literary evidences dating back to more than 2,000 year mentioning Sethu built by Shri Ram. Sethupatis of Ramanathapuram, the rulers of the area, were indeed appointed by Shri Ram himself to guard Ram Sethu, as per the local traditions, he said. Pauraniks in ancient Tamil Nadu went from place to place lecturing on Setu Puranam, an ancient literary work in Tamil, Rangarajan added.
Shri Tad S. Murthy, vice president of the Tsunami Society of Ottawa, USA, the expert who was commissioned by Shipping Ministry (and whose advice that the project include precautionary steps against Tsunami was ignored), had sent his best wishes for the success of the seminar. The message of greetings from Dr S.R. Rao, founder, Society of Marine Archaeology in India, was also read out at the seminar. Dr Rao was to inaugurate the seminar but he could not make it to Chennai owing to ill health.
Ram Sethu, a compilation edited by Dr S. Kalyanaraman, director, Saraswati River Project, that includes the papers presented at the Chennai seminar, was released at the seminar. It is priced at Rs 600. Dignitaries who were among the audience included former ministers S. Tirunavukkarasar and Dr H.V. Hande, Shri K. Surynarayana Rao, senior functionary of RSS, Dr Subramanian Swamy of Janata Party and Shri L. Ganeshan, state president of BJP.
http://www.organiser.org/
Note on URLs for: e-book, ppt, video
Rama Setu: 315 page e-book (5.2mb)
The book presents multiple facets of the Setu Samudram Channel Project and evidences for Rama Setu as a monument of international importance. Click
Rama Setu: Powerpoint 37 slides (6 mb)
36 slides on Rama Setu and Setu Samudram Channel Project, a plea for realignment without cutting through Rama Setu which should be protected as a monument of international importance. Click
Mirror: Click
Download the file in wmv format (can be played through windows media player), please right click this link and save the link or save the target in your desktop. (14.5 mb) CLICK
To view / listen to the PodMagazine:
Hindu Affairs: International Seminar on Importance of Protecting Ram Sethu Bridge
International Seminar on Importance of Protecting Ram Sethu Bridge
by Kalyanaraman
About S.Kalyanaraman
Click and listen
More Information Click
Pakistan: Shrinking Control
Source: CSIS
By Teresita C. Schaffer, Director, South Asia Program
May 18, 2007
As events in Pakistan press forward, it becomes ever more likely that the next few weeks and months will bring major changes in the country’s governance and political structure. Musharraf faces his most intense domestic challenge yet. Paradoxically, a strong push for democracy could be his best bet, though it is a long shot. Scenarios more in line with his past behavior involve more autocratic government, and could involve a change in government.
March 9, the date on which President Musharraf suspended Chief Justice Chaudhry, is now used as shorthand by many, in much the same way Americans speak of “9/11.” His appearances in cities in towns around the country, technically speeches to bar councils, have the look and feel of a political movement in the making.
Chaudhry’s trip to Karachi on May 12 represents another watershed, and that date too is going into political lore, as shorthand for a disastrous turn of events. While Chaudhry was confined at the airport by a tight barricade of containers placed across all access roads, riots broke out in the city. These pitted the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), a party with a thuggish reputation based in Pakistan’s “muhajir” community, against the opposition parties and the local bar council. Political operatives are often armed in Pakistan. Violence involved many different parties, but the MQM seemed to have started things, and was especially heavily armed. People around the country watched in horror as the riots were broadcast live, continuously, for over four hours. TV stations were attacked, their staff appealed for help on camera, and fires broke out (and were set) in the streets. Dark rumors reported that supporters of Musharraf had instigated the MQM’s action. The fact that Musharraf is a muhajir and has had the MQM as a political ally (although he has never been personally connected with the party) gave an ugly ethnic tinge to these events. At the end, at least 38 people were dead.
Political violence is certainly not new in Pakistan, and Karachi has often been a lawless city. However, May 12 clearly represented another inflection point. At a minimum, it was a fresh instance of the government’s inability to keep order, this time on a grand scale, and it made the army look ineffectual. It further damaged Musharraf’s standing as a broadly accepted leader. And whereas Musharraf’s government has benefited from his critics’ passivity and fatalism, it now confronts opponents who are more passionate and more willing to act.
Musharraf must be concerned, but he is certainly giving no public acknowledgement of this. The reports on his meeting with his parliamentary party have him expressing full confidence, blaming the Karachi riots on “media hype,” and asserting that he will keep his “team” together (meaning both his larger ruling party and his MQM allies). The army too must be concerned; as an institution, it is jealous of its reputation.
Musharraf’s opportunities to pull a political rabbit out of his hat are shrinking. A deal with Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) seems less likely than ever. The religious parties are keeping their distance, and have associated themselves with the protests against suspending the Chief Justice. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, with whom no "deal" negotiations had been contemplated, was quoted on the front pages of Pakistani newspapers calling Musharraf "a gone man." The Supreme Court, which has before it a case challenging the validity of Musharraf’s decision to suspend the Chief Justice, must be acutely aware that all of Pakistan – and not just the government – will be watching its ruling carefully, and that there will be a public reaction.
Most of Musharraf’s options are not attractive. He can hope that things will calm down, and that the Supreme Court will delay a decision until passions have cooled. He can crack down on political parties and the press. He could, if disorder continues, declare a state of emergency or martial law, options he has publicly rejected in recent days. But none of these is a sure bet, and each of these brings its own potential complications, including fresh domestic upheavals and international pressure.
There is also a "democracy option," though it would be a reversal of much of Musharraf’s modus operandi. Musharraf could try to cast himself as the man who brings Pakistan its cleanest elections yet. He could announce that he was leaving the army before the elections, and make a major, visible effort to stage truly transparent elections in which he ran as a civilian and allowed the newly elected assemblies to conduct the presidential election. He would have a hard job making this credible, given the way he has prepared for the upcoming elections and the fallout from the judicial crisis. Paradoxically, however, this might give him his best chance to recapture the relative popularity he enjoyed in the past. But it involves taking risks – both with politics and with his relationship with the army – that he has shunned in the past.
Musharraf is still in power, but it is not the same Musharraf with whom the international community has been working for six years, nor the same Pakistan. His willingness and ability to put his full strength behind the anti-terrorism effort are reduced. He is vulnerable to domestic challenges. The United States needs to make policy with an eye on Pakistan’s long-term stability, not just on today’s working relationships. It also needs to be ready to work with alternative scenarios in Pakistan should they come about.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in these publications should be understood to be solely those of the authors.
By Teresita C. Schaffer, Director, South Asia Program
May 18, 2007
As events in Pakistan press forward, it becomes ever more likely that the next few weeks and months will bring major changes in the country’s governance and political structure. Musharraf faces his most intense domestic challenge yet. Paradoxically, a strong push for democracy could be his best bet, though it is a long shot. Scenarios more in line with his past behavior involve more autocratic government, and could involve a change in government.
March 9, the date on which President Musharraf suspended Chief Justice Chaudhry, is now used as shorthand by many, in much the same way Americans speak of “9/11.” His appearances in cities in towns around the country, technically speeches to bar councils, have the look and feel of a political movement in the making.
Chaudhry’s trip to Karachi on May 12 represents another watershed, and that date too is going into political lore, as shorthand for a disastrous turn of events. While Chaudhry was confined at the airport by a tight barricade of containers placed across all access roads, riots broke out in the city. These pitted the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), a party with a thuggish reputation based in Pakistan’s “muhajir” community, against the opposition parties and the local bar council. Political operatives are often armed in Pakistan. Violence involved many different parties, but the MQM seemed to have started things, and was especially heavily armed. People around the country watched in horror as the riots were broadcast live, continuously, for over four hours. TV stations were attacked, their staff appealed for help on camera, and fires broke out (and were set) in the streets. Dark rumors reported that supporters of Musharraf had instigated the MQM’s action. The fact that Musharraf is a muhajir and has had the MQM as a political ally (although he has never been personally connected with the party) gave an ugly ethnic tinge to these events. At the end, at least 38 people were dead.
Political violence is certainly not new in Pakistan, and Karachi has often been a lawless city. However, May 12 clearly represented another inflection point. At a minimum, it was a fresh instance of the government’s inability to keep order, this time on a grand scale, and it made the army look ineffectual. It further damaged Musharraf’s standing as a broadly accepted leader. And whereas Musharraf’s government has benefited from his critics’ passivity and fatalism, it now confronts opponents who are more passionate and more willing to act.
Musharraf must be concerned, but he is certainly giving no public acknowledgement of this. The reports on his meeting with his parliamentary party have him expressing full confidence, blaming the Karachi riots on “media hype,” and asserting that he will keep his “team” together (meaning both his larger ruling party and his MQM allies). The army too must be concerned; as an institution, it is jealous of its reputation.
Musharraf’s opportunities to pull a political rabbit out of his hat are shrinking. A deal with Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) seems less likely than ever. The religious parties are keeping their distance, and have associated themselves with the protests against suspending the Chief Justice. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, with whom no "deal" negotiations had been contemplated, was quoted on the front pages of Pakistani newspapers calling Musharraf "a gone man." The Supreme Court, which has before it a case challenging the validity of Musharraf’s decision to suspend the Chief Justice, must be acutely aware that all of Pakistan – and not just the government – will be watching its ruling carefully, and that there will be a public reaction.
Most of Musharraf’s options are not attractive. He can hope that things will calm down, and that the Supreme Court will delay a decision until passions have cooled. He can crack down on political parties and the press. He could, if disorder continues, declare a state of emergency or martial law, options he has publicly rejected in recent days. But none of these is a sure bet, and each of these brings its own potential complications, including fresh domestic upheavals and international pressure.
There is also a "democracy option," though it would be a reversal of much of Musharraf’s modus operandi. Musharraf could try to cast himself as the man who brings Pakistan its cleanest elections yet. He could announce that he was leaving the army before the elections, and make a major, visible effort to stage truly transparent elections in which he ran as a civilian and allowed the newly elected assemblies to conduct the presidential election. He would have a hard job making this credible, given the way he has prepared for the upcoming elections and the fallout from the judicial crisis. Paradoxically, however, this might give him his best chance to recapture the relative popularity he enjoyed in the past. But it involves taking risks – both with politics and with his relationship with the army – that he has shunned in the past.
Musharraf is still in power, but it is not the same Musharraf with whom the international community has been working for six years, nor the same Pakistan. His willingness and ability to put his full strength behind the anti-terrorism effort are reduced. He is vulnerable to domestic challenges. The United States needs to make policy with an eye on Pakistan’s long-term stability, not just on today’s working relationships. It also needs to be ready to work with alternative scenarios in Pakistan should they come about.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in these publications should be understood to be solely those of the authors.
Major Geopolitical trends adverse to the US , 2006
1. Intensifying hostility to the west throughout the world of Islam
2. An explosive Middle East
3. AN Iran predominant in the Persian Gulf
4. A volatile nuclear armed Pakistan
5. A disaffected Europe
6. A resentful Russia
7. China setting up an East Asian Community
8. Japan more Isolated in Asia
9. Populist Anti-US wave in the Latin America
10. Breakdown of Non-Proliferation regime
Source: Second Chance Three Presidents and the crisis of American Superpower
2. An explosive Middle East
3. AN Iran predominant in the Persian Gulf
4. A volatile nuclear armed Pakistan
5. A disaffected Europe
6. A resentful Russia
7. China setting up an East Asian Community
8. Japan more Isolated in Asia
9. Populist Anti-US wave in the Latin America
10. Breakdown of Non-Proliferation regime
Source: Second Chance Three Presidents and the crisis of American Superpower
A Blueprint For Iraq, From India
Reeders Report
Source: http://www.businessweek.com/
Rudy Giuliani says, "I can't remember in the history of war when an army...has announced its retreat...and a timetable of that retreat" ("Rudy Giuliani on Iraq, taxes, mistakes," Face Time, Apr. 30). He needs to read recent modern history.
The British faced a somewhat similar predicament in India after World War II: intense agitation to leave the country, attacks on forces, civil unrest, and—most importantly—infighting among the Indian factions. Lord Mountbatten, the last Viceroy, ordered a "retreat" in early 1947. He advised British forces to leave, no matter what the circumstances, no later than June, 1948 (an 18-month timetable). Amazingly, the Indians suddenly became very focused on the need to resolve their differences and to effect control of their own country. The British were then able to exit with dignity within nine months (August, 1947). Of course, a large measure of turbulence and bloodshed did follow, but the Indians ultimately addressed it and now have a modern nation.
The parallel is obvious. Iraqis ultimately need to resolve Iraq's problems. They have no incentive to do so if we remain as both whipping boy and crutch. Announce our departure, and they will focus on what they need to do.
James M. De Francia
Aspen, Colo.
Source: http://www.businessweek.com/
Rudy Giuliani says, "I can't remember in the history of war when an army...has announced its retreat...and a timetable of that retreat" ("Rudy Giuliani on Iraq, taxes, mistakes," Face Time, Apr. 30). He needs to read recent modern history.
The British faced a somewhat similar predicament in India after World War II: intense agitation to leave the country, attacks on forces, civil unrest, and—most importantly—infighting among the Indian factions. Lord Mountbatten, the last Viceroy, ordered a "retreat" in early 1947. He advised British forces to leave, no matter what the circumstances, no later than June, 1948 (an 18-month timetable). Amazingly, the Indians suddenly became very focused on the need to resolve their differences and to effect control of their own country. The British were then able to exit with dignity within nine months (August, 1947). Of course, a large measure of turbulence and bloodshed did follow, but the Indians ultimately addressed it and now have a modern nation.
The parallel is obvious. Iraqis ultimately need to resolve Iraq's problems. They have no incentive to do so if we remain as both whipping boy and crutch. Announce our departure, and they will focus on what they need to do.
James M. De Francia
Aspen, Colo.
Profile : Ivan Howden former British Army officer joined International Risk Ltd
by Nagesh Bhushan
After working for several years in the private security field, former British Army officer Ivan Howden has been appointed chief of the Singapore office of the business intelligence firm International Risk that focuses on Asia and has its headquarters in Hong Kong .
Ivan is a Vice President and is in charge of International Risk’s South East Asia regional headquarters based in Singapore. He is responsible for the delivery of a broad range of risk consulting and investigative services, including consulting assignments involving political, security and associated risks both within the Asian Pacific region and globally, on behalf of International Risk multinational clients. He also coordinates high-level liaison with military, police and relevant government departments to provide logistical support in multi-jurisdictional cases.
Prior to joining International Risk in 2006 Ivan was responsible for security issues, crisis management and disaster recovery/business continuity for an IT consultancy firm in the financial services sector in the City of London. Prior to this Ivan worked in Baghdad from 2003 to 2005 where he was initially responsible for executive protection services to press and senior military officers before moving to the recruitment and management of the Oil Protection Force (OPF). In this position, Ivan was the national training officer for an armed security force of 15,000 men and, with the equivalent rank of Colonel was in joint operational command of 5,000 officers and men of the Central Region OPF and personal operational command of 1,200 men. He provided armed, paramilitary security, including mobile and air assets, for 15-months during the insurgency for fifty fixed sites and six hundred kilometres of pipelines comprising the natural gas and petrochemical infrastructure in the centre of Iraq. His team also set up an active local intelligence cell, worked closely with Iraqi Security Forces and Coalition Forces, and acted as liaison between the US military and Iraqi ministry officials. In 2005 Ivan left Iraq to become the Special Projects Manager for a security firm based in Hereford, UK.
Ivan is a former British Army officer. He worked and trained with the armed services from many NATO countries, including several specialist units from the US Army and USMC. He completed operational tours in Northern Ireland and in the Balkans before leaving the army in 1997.
Ivan holds an MA in Modern Languages (French & German) and Law from Cambridge University and has a background in accountancy and IT project management. He is a member of the American Society for Industrial Security
The newly expanded operation will be headed by Ivan Howden, a key member of our senior management team as Vice President in charge of South East Asia.
Ivan has over twelve years experience in Risk Mitigation and crisis containment. Before joining International Risk in 2006 Ivan was responsible for security issues, crisis management and disaster recovery/business continuity for an IT consultancy firm operating in the financial services sector in the City of London. Prior to this Ivan worked in Baghdad from 2003 to 2005 on a variety of high level consultancy tasks before leaving Iraq to become the Special Projects Manager for a risk and security firm based in Hereford, UK. Ivan was commissioned at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, holds an MA in Law and Modern Languages (French & German) from Cambridge University and also has a background in accountancy and IT project management.
Tel: (65) 6324 0603
E-mail: ivan.howden@intl-risk.com
Above report compiled from intl-risk.com
After working for several years in the private security field, former British Army officer Ivan Howden has been appointed chief of the Singapore office of the business intelligence firm International Risk that focuses on Asia and has its headquarters in Hong Kong .
Ivan is a Vice President and is in charge of International Risk’s South East Asia regional headquarters based in Singapore. He is responsible for the delivery of a broad range of risk consulting and investigative services, including consulting assignments involving political, security and associated risks both within the Asian Pacific region and globally, on behalf of International Risk multinational clients. He also coordinates high-level liaison with military, police and relevant government departments to provide logistical support in multi-jurisdictional cases.
Prior to joining International Risk in 2006 Ivan was responsible for security issues, crisis management and disaster recovery/business continuity for an IT consultancy firm in the financial services sector in the City of London. Prior to this Ivan worked in Baghdad from 2003 to 2005 where he was initially responsible for executive protection services to press and senior military officers before moving to the recruitment and management of the Oil Protection Force (OPF). In this position, Ivan was the national training officer for an armed security force of 15,000 men and, with the equivalent rank of Colonel was in joint operational command of 5,000 officers and men of the Central Region OPF and personal operational command of 1,200 men. He provided armed, paramilitary security, including mobile and air assets, for 15-months during the insurgency for fifty fixed sites and six hundred kilometres of pipelines comprising the natural gas and petrochemical infrastructure in the centre of Iraq. His team also set up an active local intelligence cell, worked closely with Iraqi Security Forces and Coalition Forces, and acted as liaison between the US military and Iraqi ministry officials. In 2005 Ivan left Iraq to become the Special Projects Manager for a security firm based in Hereford, UK.
Ivan is a former British Army officer. He worked and trained with the armed services from many NATO countries, including several specialist units from the US Army and USMC. He completed operational tours in Northern Ireland and in the Balkans before leaving the army in 1997.
Ivan holds an MA in Modern Languages (French & German) and Law from Cambridge University and has a background in accountancy and IT project management. He is a member of the American Society for Industrial Security
The newly expanded operation will be headed by Ivan Howden, a key member of our senior management team as Vice President in charge of South East Asia.
Ivan has over twelve years experience in Risk Mitigation and crisis containment. Before joining International Risk in 2006 Ivan was responsible for security issues, crisis management and disaster recovery/business continuity for an IT consultancy firm operating in the financial services sector in the City of London. Prior to this Ivan worked in Baghdad from 2003 to 2005 on a variety of high level consultancy tasks before leaving Iraq to become the Special Projects Manager for a risk and security firm based in Hereford, UK. Ivan was commissioned at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, holds an MA in Law and Modern Languages (French & German) from Cambridge University and also has a background in accountancy and IT project management.
Tel: (65) 6324 0603
E-mail: ivan.howden@intl-risk.com
Above report compiled from intl-risk.com
Boom in Market to Identify “Politically Exposed Persons”
European and U.S. regulations on money-laundering have created a market for lists of customers presenting a risk. Several companies have positioned themselves on this highly specialized niche.
In Europe, the European Commission’s 3rd directive on the fight against money laundering and the funding of terrorism that comes into effect at the end of the year is obliging financial establishments in the EU to introduce systems to identify “politically exposed persons” (PEP) among their customers. The European Parliament defines PEP as persons who exercise major public functions and their family and friends. In the United States, the USA Patriot Act and regulations laid down by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) already compel financial establishments to carry out checks of the type.
To identify persons deemed at risk, most of the big banks, customs services, casinos and airports already dip into databases containing hundreds of thousands of names of persons and organizations. The lists are sold by a number of specialized companies (see graph below). The companies incorporate names on dozens of official lists, such as those of the UN, Interpol, OFAC, the FBI and the Bureau of Industry and Security (U.S. Commerce Department) and use their own staff to flesh out the list with persons identified from public sources like the media and government files.
The marketing of lists - on which both terrorists and ordinary politicians can figure - is regulated by national organizations that see to the protection of privacy. In most countries the authorities must be informed when the lists are used. In Scandinavia, the products of World Check, one of the market leaders which turned sales of USD 40 million last year, were banned prior to 2005 and the French privacy watchdog CNIL allows the lists to be seen on-line but forbids any downloading of files.
Millions seized from Nigerian diplomat in India
Parul Malhotra & Sumon Chakrabarti
CNN-IBN
Posted Tuesday , May 22, 2007 at 21:15
Updated Tuesday , May 22, 2007 at 21:18 Email Print
DEALING IN MILLIONS: Captain Ojedokun is now behind the walls of his country's High Commission.
After being questioned by income tax authorities in connection with the biggest ever cash haul at an Indian airport, Captain Ojedokun is now behind these walls of his country's High Commission.
So prickly are the Nigerians about this incident that it appears they all have gone underground. No one is available to talk to us about this episode.
MEA sources dismiss any link between this case and that of two Indians kidnapped recently in Nigeria.
But the source and the intended use of the money remain unclear. It could be linked to a thriving drug syndicate, some suspect.
The finance ministry has already submitted a preliminary report to the foreign ministry where officials are describing the case as unprecedented.
They are in touch with the newly appointed Nigerian High Commissioner on the way forward.
India's options are limited. The defence adviser to the Nigerian envoy in India can be only be expelled from the country.
He cannot be arrested unless the Nigerians waive his diplomatic immunity, which is considered unlikely.
The Department of Revenue Intelligence is seriously investigating the drugs angle. They say that drugs coming from Afghanistan and Latin America, and headed to China, are increasingly being routed through India.
That perhaps explains why both governments are keen to resolve the matter quietly
Nigeria: '$2.27m Found on Capt. Ojedokun Approved'
This Day (Lagos)
24 May 2007
Posted to the web 24 May 2007
Juliana Taiwo
Abuja
Nigerian Miltary may have approved the $2.27 million found on the Nigerian Defence Attaché to India, Navy Captain G. A. Ojedokun, for which he was arrested by Indian security agencies, a senior officer in the Military who would not want his name in print yesterday clarified that the money was duly approved by the Ministry of Defence for certain projects earmarked for the Nigerian High Commission in India.
He said the money was part of an approval released for the project after the endorsement of the Defence Ministry, pointing out that the project was initially meant to be undertaken by the former Defence Adviser, also a Navy Captain, who is currently attending the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies, in Kuru near Jos, Plateau State.
"Following the appointment of the new Defence Adviser, the cost of the project was reviewed downwards. From our discussions with the Ojedokun and investigations, we discovered that the officer was trying to return the money which is the balance of the original sum that was approved to the country."
The senior officer explained that problems arose when he failed to declare that he had such an amount of money on him, which is normal international practice.
Explaining that the arrested Captain has since been released and has resumed duties at the Nigerian mission in India, the senior officer said the incident was blown out of proportion simply because it involved a diplomat.
When contacted for comments on the development, a senior official of the ministry who pleaded anonymity said "the Defence headquarters has set up a board of enquiry to further investigate the incident and unravel the circumstances surrounding it."
It would be recalled that the Indian Airport Authorities on the allegation that he was trying to smuggle out the $2.27million arrested Ojedokun an attache to the Nigerian High Commission in India.
He was said to have been stopped while about to board an Ethiopian airline flight bound for Lagos on Monday night, when the scanner revealed he had stacks of cash in his bag.
Indian authorities were said to be investigating whether there is a connection between Ojedokun and a drug syndicate in Nigeria, because he failed to mention if the money was linked to the Nigerian mission.
$2.3mn seized from Nigerian diplomatPublished:
Wednesday, 23 May, 2007, 09:11 AM Doha Time
NEW DELHI: A Nigerian diplomat held at the airport here for carrying more than $2mn was freed yesterday but the cash was seized after he failed to account for it, officials said.
G A Ojedokun, defence attache at the Nigerian embassy in New Delhi, was detained on Monday at the Indira Gandhi International Airport after a security check led to the discovery of $2.27mn in his hand baggage.
“The diplomat had claimed it contained clothes but on a search 150 paper packets packed with $100 bills were found,” an official from the airport’s air intelligence wing said.
Ojedokun, who was not permitted to board a Lagos-bound Ethiopian Airlines passenger plane, was released yesterday after he demanded diplomatic immunity, the official said.
S S Khan, director-general of income tax, said the cash had been seized.
“We have released him after his interrogation but his explanation about the source of money was not satisfactory and that is why we seized the entire money,” Khan said.
Khan denied speculation that the seizure was any in way linked to the kidnapping of two Indians in Nigeria.
“So far our investigations have not given us any hint that it was linked to ransom money. But we will get to the bottom of this incident soon,” he said.
The government has been in touch with the Indian high commission in Nigeria hoping for an early release of Sunil Dave and Debashish Kakoty, who were kidnapped on Saturday by militants armed with dynamite and machine guns from the oil heartland of Port Harcourt.
External affairs ministry officials said they had informed their counterparts in Abuja of the incident involving Ojedokun, who was posted to the Indian capital three months ago.
Diplomats at the Nigerian embassy here were not available for comment.
Recently, a son of a Nigerian diplomat was held on charges of narcotics peddling.
As many as 43 Nigerians are being held in a New Delhi prison on charges ranging from drug trafficking to money laundering, according to official records. – Agencies
Nigeria tensions send oil prices to 9-month high
Reuters
Published: Thursday, May 24, 2007
LONDON -- Oil hit a nine-month high above US$71 on Thursday, propelled by a strike threat to Nigeria's hobbled output and a report by U.N. nuclear monitors that opened the way to tougher sanctions against Iran.
London Brent crude, a more accurate indicator than U.S. oil, was up 68 US cents at US$71.28 a barrel by 1200 GMT, after hitting US$71.42, the highest since August 28, 2006.
U.S. crude traded down 33 US cents at US$65.44.
Font: ****Prices steamed higher on Wednesday after U.S. warships put on a show of force off Iran's coast, coinciding with a report by U.N. monitors that Tehran had expanded its nuclear programme.
"That played into the price action although the report had nothing new in it. It was a knee-jerk reaction to the headlines," said Mike Wittner of investment bank Calyon.
The rally accelerated on Thursday when workers at Nigeria's state oil company began an indefinite strike and unions said they would target oil output if their demands were not addressed within days. Militant attacks have already shut nearly a quarter of production in the world's eighth-biggest oil exporter.
The heightened Iran tension and new threat to Nigeria's exports added to concerns about fuel supplies in the world's top consumer the United States, where gasoline inventories have been rising but remain below average ahead of peak summer demand.
"The gasoline situation remains critical...Stocks stand at a seasonal low with the driving season officially set to kick off this weekend," Citigroup said in a research note.
Militant attacks have cut production of gasoline-rich crude from Nigeria by 695,000 barrels per day.
"Two big things are keeping prices up, the Nigerian and gasoline situation," said Tony Nunan of Mitsubishi Corp.
Calyon's Wittner said crude supplies in the Atlantic basin were relatively tight because of the closure of Nigerian oilfields and reduced North Sea loadings due to maintenance. At the same time, refineries were cranking up their operations.
Oil prices have more than trebled since the start of 2002 and hit a record US$78.40 in July 2006. But the world economy has continued on a growth path. The president of one of the world's top oil trading houses said he believed prices were nearing the point of demand destruction, however.
"My view is that we are pretty close to demand destruction - we are within 10-20 percent where we see reduced demand rates of growth," said Ian Taylor, president of Swiss-based Vitol Group, at a conference in Singapore.
By CARMEN J. GENTILE
UPI Energy Correspondent
Persistent violence in Nigeria's oil-laden delta and attacks on petroleum installations are in part responsible for the recent spike in oil price worldwide, analysts and experts said this week.
Brent crude surpassed the $70 a barrel mark earlier this week, marking a nine-month high. Prices at U.S. pumps jumped on average 11 cents a gallon in the past month, a spike many blame on militant groups operating in the remote thicket of the Niger Delta, home to much of the West African nation's highly coveted sweet crude.
Militants were blamed Tuesday for abducting another four foreign workers from the delta city of Warri, Nigerian police said Wednesday.
There are currently more than a dozen foreigners being held by armed militant groups, some for several weeks. Since the beginning of the year, more than 150 people have been taken hostage by militants, who have called for more equitable distribution of oil revenue and an end to government corruption.
Nigeria's political leaders are blamed by many of the country's poor -- more than 70 percent of the country lives on less than one dollar a day -- for siphoning off oil revenue for personal use and neglecting to develop the country's infrastructure and social programs, particularly in the delta.
Since the 1970s, Nigeria, Africa's No. 1 oil producer, has pumped more than $300 billion worth of crude from the southern delta states, according to estimates.
High unemployment in the delta, environmental degradation due to oil and gas extraction, and a lack of basic resources such as fresh water and electricity have angered the region's youth, who have taken up arms, many times supplied by political leaders.
Militants like the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta have vowed to step up attacks until May 29 when President-elect Alhaji Umar Musa Yar'Adua is scheduled to take over from Olusegun Obasanjo, who MEND says has facilitated corrupt government officials who spent the past eight years pilfering state coffers awash with petrodollars.
"The whole place is in crisis now," Patrick Naagba, a leading analyst and expert on militancy, told United Press International last month. "Nobody seems to have a solution to what is happening. ... It all boils down to corruption."
During his eight-year tenure, Obasanjo made what appeared to be forays into tackling government corruption, even creating a commission to weed out those candidates seeking to succeed him in April's presidential election who were deemed too corrupt to run.
However, critics of the president and opposition leaders contend his corruption crackdown was merely an effort to thwart the ambitions of political rivals to assure that his chosen successor, Yar'Adua, would win last month's race.
"We must, in Nigeria, do some soul searching and ask how we got here and where we go from here," Nigerian commentator and former presidential candidate Pat Utomi wrote for Nigeria's Guardian newspaper.
Later this month Obasanjo is scheduled to step down and hand over authority to Yar'Adua. If successful it would be the first democratic handover of authority from one elected administration to another since Nigeria gained its independence from Britain in 1960.
Three losing candidates have banded together and signed a petition for that handover to be canceled, along with the results of the April 21 presidential election, due to interference by the ruling People's Democratic Party and armed groups who reportedly intimidated thousands of voters from heading to the polls. Election observers also noted widespread incidents of ballot-box stuffing and other accounts of voter fraud.
Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Action Congress, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria People's Party and Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu of the All Progressive Grand Alliance asked Nigeria's Court of Appeals to nullify the results of the election.
With less than a week till the May 29 handover, a reversal appears highly unlikely.
Published: Thursday, May 24, 2007
LONDON -- Oil hit a nine-month high above US$71 on Thursday, propelled by a strike threat to Nigeria's hobbled output and a report by U.N. nuclear monitors that opened the way to tougher sanctions against Iran.
London Brent crude, a more accurate indicator than U.S. oil, was up 68 US cents at US$71.28 a barrel by 1200 GMT, after hitting US$71.42, the highest since August 28, 2006.
U.S. crude traded down 33 US cents at US$65.44.
Font: ****Prices steamed higher on Wednesday after U.S. warships put on a show of force off Iran's coast, coinciding with a report by U.N. monitors that Tehran had expanded its nuclear programme.
"That played into the price action although the report had nothing new in it. It was a knee-jerk reaction to the headlines," said Mike Wittner of investment bank Calyon.
The rally accelerated on Thursday when workers at Nigeria's state oil company began an indefinite strike and unions said they would target oil output if their demands were not addressed within days. Militant attacks have already shut nearly a quarter of production in the world's eighth-biggest oil exporter.
The heightened Iran tension and new threat to Nigeria's exports added to concerns about fuel supplies in the world's top consumer the United States, where gasoline inventories have been rising but remain below average ahead of peak summer demand.
"The gasoline situation remains critical...Stocks stand at a seasonal low with the driving season officially set to kick off this weekend," Citigroup said in a research note.
Militant attacks have cut production of gasoline-rich crude from Nigeria by 695,000 barrels per day.
"Two big things are keeping prices up, the Nigerian and gasoline situation," said Tony Nunan of Mitsubishi Corp.
Calyon's Wittner said crude supplies in the Atlantic basin were relatively tight because of the closure of Nigerian oilfields and reduced North Sea loadings due to maintenance. At the same time, refineries were cranking up their operations.
Oil prices have more than trebled since the start of 2002 and hit a record US$78.40 in July 2006. But the world economy has continued on a growth path. The president of one of the world's top oil trading houses said he believed prices were nearing the point of demand destruction, however.
"My view is that we are pretty close to demand destruction - we are within 10-20 percent where we see reduced demand rates of growth," said Ian Taylor, president of Swiss-based Vitol Group, at a conference in Singapore.
By CARMEN J. GENTILE
UPI Energy Correspondent
Persistent violence in Nigeria's oil-laden delta and attacks on petroleum installations are in part responsible for the recent spike in oil price worldwide, analysts and experts said this week.
Brent crude surpassed the $70 a barrel mark earlier this week, marking a nine-month high. Prices at U.S. pumps jumped on average 11 cents a gallon in the past month, a spike many blame on militant groups operating in the remote thicket of the Niger Delta, home to much of the West African nation's highly coveted sweet crude.
Militants were blamed Tuesday for abducting another four foreign workers from the delta city of Warri, Nigerian police said Wednesday.
There are currently more than a dozen foreigners being held by armed militant groups, some for several weeks. Since the beginning of the year, more than 150 people have been taken hostage by militants, who have called for more equitable distribution of oil revenue and an end to government corruption.
Nigeria's political leaders are blamed by many of the country's poor -- more than 70 percent of the country lives on less than one dollar a day -- for siphoning off oil revenue for personal use and neglecting to develop the country's infrastructure and social programs, particularly in the delta.
Since the 1970s, Nigeria, Africa's No. 1 oil producer, has pumped more than $300 billion worth of crude from the southern delta states, according to estimates.
High unemployment in the delta, environmental degradation due to oil and gas extraction, and a lack of basic resources such as fresh water and electricity have angered the region's youth, who have taken up arms, many times supplied by political leaders.
Militants like the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta have vowed to step up attacks until May 29 when President-elect Alhaji Umar Musa Yar'Adua is scheduled to take over from Olusegun Obasanjo, who MEND says has facilitated corrupt government officials who spent the past eight years pilfering state coffers awash with petrodollars.
"The whole place is in crisis now," Patrick Naagba, a leading analyst and expert on militancy, told United Press International last month. "Nobody seems to have a solution to what is happening. ... It all boils down to corruption."
During his eight-year tenure, Obasanjo made what appeared to be forays into tackling government corruption, even creating a commission to weed out those candidates seeking to succeed him in April's presidential election who were deemed too corrupt to run.
However, critics of the president and opposition leaders contend his corruption crackdown was merely an effort to thwart the ambitions of political rivals to assure that his chosen successor, Yar'Adua, would win last month's race.
"We must, in Nigeria, do some soul searching and ask how we got here and where we go from here," Nigerian commentator and former presidential candidate Pat Utomi wrote for Nigeria's Guardian newspaper.
Later this month Obasanjo is scheduled to step down and hand over authority to Yar'Adua. If successful it would be the first democratic handover of authority from one elected administration to another since Nigeria gained its independence from Britain in 1960.
Three losing candidates have banded together and signed a petition for that handover to be canceled, along with the results of the April 21 presidential election, due to interference by the ruling People's Democratic Party and armed groups who reportedly intimidated thousands of voters from heading to the polls. Election observers also noted widespread incidents of ballot-box stuffing and other accounts of voter fraud.
Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Action Congress, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria People's Party and Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu of the All Progressive Grand Alliance asked Nigeria's Court of Appeals to nullify the results of the election.
With less than a week till the May 29 handover, a reversal appears highly unlikely.
Geopolitical Diary: Iran's Moves to Contain Ahmadinejad
Source: Stratfor
May 24, 2007 02 00 GMT
Iran has increased the price of gasoline by 25 percent, from 30 cents to 38 cents per gallon, and is attempting to reduce subsidies, Fars News Agency reported on Wednesday. The quasi-official Iranian media organization quoted Interior Minister Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi as saying the move is in keeping with the new budget law. Pour-Mohammadi added that fuel rationing will begin June 5.
The move came as a surprise, particularly given that the government said May 20 it had no immediate plans to increase fuel prices. The price hike could stoke public ire, and it runs counter to the agenda of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose political future depends on his image as a populist leader championing the cause of the downtrodden.
One explanation for what appears a bizarre government decision is that it is part of a plan by the pragmatic conservatives to discredit Ahmadinejad and weaken the influence of his ultraconservative faction. Some might dismiss this as a conspiracy theory, but a number of other recent developments force us to consider that Ahmadinejad could be in serious political trouble at home. In fact, reports have circulated about major disagreements between the president and other senior Iranian officials, especially on foreign policy matters.
Saudi-owned daily newspaper Al Hayat reported May 21 that Iranian national security chief Ali Larijani has tendered his resignation on five separate occasions in recent months due to frustration over what he considers irresponsible statements and actions by Ahmadinejad. The newspaper added that the intervention of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has temporarily defused the situation, but Larijani feels the president is jeopardizing Iranian interests. These disputes deal with how to conduct U.S.-Iranian negotiations over Iraq, which will move into the public arena May 28, and who should lead these talks for Tehran.
Ahmadinejad faces significant opposition to his foreign policy positions from across the Iranian political system, including from Khamenei; the Expediency Council led by the regime's no. 2, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani; parliament; and even the country's elite military unit, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Ahmadinejad wants to play a major role in talks with the United States and steer them in the direction preferred by his ultraconservative faction, which includes senior members of the Basij militia, the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts, such as Ayatollahs Ahmad Jannati, Abolghassem Khazali and his spiritual mentor, Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi. But the bulk of the establishment does not trust Ahmadinejad with foreign policy, and especially not with dealing with United States on Iraq.
Indeed, opposition to Ahmadinejad is so strong that, if it received the green light from Khamenei, parliament would waste little time impeaching him. However, Khamenei is not interested in inciting internal turmoil as Iran moves to shore up its influence in Iraq and engages in risky negotiations with Washington. While getting rid of Ahmadinejad might not be an option right now, the Iranian establishment is working to box in the maverick president.
The fuel price hike is not the only tool being used to do this. On May 22, parliament approved for the third time legislation that would extend its term but reduce the tenure of the president. The bill, which proposes holding legislative and presidential elections simultaneously, with the next round in November 2008, was approved by a 222-120 vote, with seven deputies abstaining. If passed, it would extend the life of the current parliament by seven months and reduce Ahmadinejad's term by four months. Ahmadinejad's allies on the Guardian Council, which has the power of parliamentary oversight, have twice rejected this legislation as unconstitutional. Now that parliament has approved the law for a third time, the bill will go to the Rafsanjani-led Expediency Council, which arbitrates disputes between the legislature and the Guardian Council, for a final ruling, which could give the pragmatic conservatives another victory against their ultraconservative rivals.
The Iranians are not attempting to hide these moves against Ahmadinejad. In fact, by leaking the details of efforts to undercut Ahmadinejad to the press, the Iranian establishment is sending a message to Washington that it is serious about pursuing a deal on Iraq and is cleaning house -- and Tehran expects the Bush administration to do the same. These efforts notwithstanding, a lot can go wrong before May 28, the beginning of formal U.S.-Iranian talks on Iraq, and it will be some time before anyone can claim progress has been made. The Iranian regime might have Ahmadinejad and his allies contained for now, but things could change should Khamenei, who is seriously ill, no longer be at the helm.
May 24, 2007 02 00 GMT
Iran has increased the price of gasoline by 25 percent, from 30 cents to 38 cents per gallon, and is attempting to reduce subsidies, Fars News Agency reported on Wednesday. The quasi-official Iranian media organization quoted Interior Minister Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi as saying the move is in keeping with the new budget law. Pour-Mohammadi added that fuel rationing will begin June 5.
The move came as a surprise, particularly given that the government said May 20 it had no immediate plans to increase fuel prices. The price hike could stoke public ire, and it runs counter to the agenda of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose political future depends on his image as a populist leader championing the cause of the downtrodden.
One explanation for what appears a bizarre government decision is that it is part of a plan by the pragmatic conservatives to discredit Ahmadinejad and weaken the influence of his ultraconservative faction. Some might dismiss this as a conspiracy theory, but a number of other recent developments force us to consider that Ahmadinejad could be in serious political trouble at home. In fact, reports have circulated about major disagreements between the president and other senior Iranian officials, especially on foreign policy matters.
Saudi-owned daily newspaper Al Hayat reported May 21 that Iranian national security chief Ali Larijani has tendered his resignation on five separate occasions in recent months due to frustration over what he considers irresponsible statements and actions by Ahmadinejad. The newspaper added that the intervention of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has temporarily defused the situation, but Larijani feels the president is jeopardizing Iranian interests. These disputes deal with how to conduct U.S.-Iranian negotiations over Iraq, which will move into the public arena May 28, and who should lead these talks for Tehran.
Ahmadinejad faces significant opposition to his foreign policy positions from across the Iranian political system, including from Khamenei; the Expediency Council led by the regime's no. 2, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani; parliament; and even the country's elite military unit, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Ahmadinejad wants to play a major role in talks with the United States and steer them in the direction preferred by his ultraconservative faction, which includes senior members of the Basij militia, the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts, such as Ayatollahs Ahmad Jannati, Abolghassem Khazali and his spiritual mentor, Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi. But the bulk of the establishment does not trust Ahmadinejad with foreign policy, and especially not with dealing with United States on Iraq.
Indeed, opposition to Ahmadinejad is so strong that, if it received the green light from Khamenei, parliament would waste little time impeaching him. However, Khamenei is not interested in inciting internal turmoil as Iran moves to shore up its influence in Iraq and engages in risky negotiations with Washington. While getting rid of Ahmadinejad might not be an option right now, the Iranian establishment is working to box in the maverick president.
The fuel price hike is not the only tool being used to do this. On May 22, parliament approved for the third time legislation that would extend its term but reduce the tenure of the president. The bill, which proposes holding legislative and presidential elections simultaneously, with the next round in November 2008, was approved by a 222-120 vote, with seven deputies abstaining. If passed, it would extend the life of the current parliament by seven months and reduce Ahmadinejad's term by four months. Ahmadinejad's allies on the Guardian Council, which has the power of parliamentary oversight, have twice rejected this legislation as unconstitutional. Now that parliament has approved the law for a third time, the bill will go to the Rafsanjani-led Expediency Council, which arbitrates disputes between the legislature and the Guardian Council, for a final ruling, which could give the pragmatic conservatives another victory against their ultraconservative rivals.
The Iranians are not attempting to hide these moves against Ahmadinejad. In fact, by leaking the details of efforts to undercut Ahmadinejad to the press, the Iranian establishment is sending a message to Washington that it is serious about pursuing a deal on Iraq and is cleaning house -- and Tehran expects the Bush administration to do the same. These efforts notwithstanding, a lot can go wrong before May 28, the beginning of formal U.S.-Iranian talks on Iraq, and it will be some time before anyone can claim progress has been made. The Iranian regime might have Ahmadinejad and his allies contained for now, but things could change should Khamenei, who is seriously ill, no longer be at the helm.
Russia's new Defense Minister builds up a new Defense Ministry
24.05.2007 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/russia/kremlin/92104-defense_minister-0
The third high ranking commander has left his post. The observers joke about one top general per month. Shortly after the Chief of Arms of the MoD General of the Army Alexei Moskovsky and the head of the department for international cooperation Anatoly Mazurkevich retired, Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov appointed a new Commander of the Russian Air Force. The famous and notorious Vladimir Mikhailov has been replaced by the colonel-general Alexander Zelin. Former Commander of the strategic aviation Igor Khvorov headed the General Staff of the Air Force. Simultaneously there have been several more appointments to the positions of the commanders of the branches of the Air Force and its regional divisions.
It is interesting to note that simultaneously with the reshuffles in the MoD done by the Minister Serdyukov the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin dismissed a number of so called attached experts. From now on there will be no such experts at all. As a result six high ranking generals lost their “ cozy ” positions of the consultants and advisers to whomsoever.
May it be a coincidence, but all retirements took place after the financial checks of the respective institutions initiated by the new Defense Minister. Even the former Commander of the Air Force, who did really a lot for the development of the Air Force in difficult period, got stained with media’s accusations of the abuse of power. In particular, media rumors that he misused the money earned by the leading Russian aerobatic teams Russian Knights and Strizhi. However, the overwhelming majority of the representatives of the aviation industry positively comment the role of Mikhailov. Indirectly his positive role can be proved by the fact that at the appointment ceremony the new Commander did his best to make clear that he will continue the trends and tasks set by the previous Commander.
It is out of the question to wait for a slow down with the pace of changes in the MoD. There is a whole list of other candidates who are likely to lose their positions shortly. However, it should be stated unreservedly clear that all retirements that took place so far were not followed by court trails or criminal cases. Moreover, some of the retired people can take new important, albeit lower posts.
Coming back to forecasts it is tempting to predict the retirement of the head of the Economics and Finance Service of the MoD Lubov Kudelina. Anatoly Serdyukov is preparing for attributing the functions of the financial control to one of his deputies. He himself has an excellent financial education and he brought number of his former colleagues from the Tax Service to the MoD, who would easily take over the above functions. President Putin already signed the decree providing for the 6 instead of 5 deputies for the Defense Minister.
Although the MoD can from time to time prolong the service time for different commanders, it is worthwhile taking a look at the list of the commander aged close to 60: Commander of the Railways Troops general-colonel Grigory Kogatko was born in 1944, the Commander of the Navy Admiral of the Navy Vladimir Masorin (in August 1947), Commander of the Leningrad military district general Igor Puzanov (January, 1947), Commander of the North-Caucasian military district general Alexander Baranov (May, 1946), Commander of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Navy admiral Victor Fedorov (November, 1947), Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces Yury Baluevsky (January, 1947)... There are many more who will be 60 in 2009.
Yuri Seleznyov
© 1999-2006. «PRAVDA.Ru». When reproducing our materials in whole or in part, hyperlink to PRAVDA.Ru should be made. The opinions and views of the authors do not always coincide with the point of view of PRAVDA.Ru's editors.
The third high ranking commander has left his post. The observers joke about one top general per month. Shortly after the Chief of Arms of the MoD General of the Army Alexei Moskovsky and the head of the department for international cooperation Anatoly Mazurkevich retired, Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov appointed a new Commander of the Russian Air Force. The famous and notorious Vladimir Mikhailov has been replaced by the colonel-general Alexander Zelin. Former Commander of the strategic aviation Igor Khvorov headed the General Staff of the Air Force. Simultaneously there have been several more appointments to the positions of the commanders of the branches of the Air Force and its regional divisions.
It is interesting to note that simultaneously with the reshuffles in the MoD done by the Minister Serdyukov the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin dismissed a number of so called attached experts. From now on there will be no such experts at all. As a result six high ranking generals lost their “ cozy ” positions of the consultants and advisers to whomsoever.
May it be a coincidence, but all retirements took place after the financial checks of the respective institutions initiated by the new Defense Minister. Even the former Commander of the Air Force, who did really a lot for the development of the Air Force in difficult period, got stained with media’s accusations of the abuse of power. In particular, media rumors that he misused the money earned by the leading Russian aerobatic teams Russian Knights and Strizhi. However, the overwhelming majority of the representatives of the aviation industry positively comment the role of Mikhailov. Indirectly his positive role can be proved by the fact that at the appointment ceremony the new Commander did his best to make clear that he will continue the trends and tasks set by the previous Commander.
It is out of the question to wait for a slow down with the pace of changes in the MoD. There is a whole list of other candidates who are likely to lose their positions shortly. However, it should be stated unreservedly clear that all retirements that took place so far were not followed by court trails or criminal cases. Moreover, some of the retired people can take new important, albeit lower posts.
Coming back to forecasts it is tempting to predict the retirement of the head of the Economics and Finance Service of the MoD Lubov Kudelina. Anatoly Serdyukov is preparing for attributing the functions of the financial control to one of his deputies. He himself has an excellent financial education and he brought number of his former colleagues from the Tax Service to the MoD, who would easily take over the above functions. President Putin already signed the decree providing for the 6 instead of 5 deputies for the Defense Minister.
Although the MoD can from time to time prolong the service time for different commanders, it is worthwhile taking a look at the list of the commander aged close to 60: Commander of the Railways Troops general-colonel Grigory Kogatko was born in 1944, the Commander of the Navy Admiral of the Navy Vladimir Masorin (in August 1947), Commander of the Leningrad military district general Igor Puzanov (January, 1947), Commander of the North-Caucasian military district general Alexander Baranov (May, 1946), Commander of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Navy admiral Victor Fedorov (November, 1947), Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces Yury Baluevsky (January, 1947)... There are many more who will be 60 in 2009.
Yuri Seleznyov
© 1999-2006. «PRAVDA.Ru». When reproducing our materials in whole or in part, hyperlink to PRAVDA.Ru should be made. The opinions and views of the authors do not always coincide with the point of view of PRAVDA.Ru's editors.
Bomb Making Skills Spread Globally
By Stew Magnuson
SINGAPORE — His name was Dr. Azahari bin Husin. He held a Ph.D. in statistical modeling from Redding University in England, and because of his innovations, he was considered one of the top experts in his field.
But he chose not to pursue a career in academia. Instead, he threw his talents into making deadly homemade bombs for the Jemaah Islamiah terror organization.
His work resulted in the deaths of about 250 victims in three high profile terrorist attacks in Indonesia — the worst of which, the October 2002 bombing on nightclubs in Bali, claimed 202 lives.
Dr. Azahari is dead — killed in 2005 during a shootout with Indonesian police — but his demise did little to stem the proliferation of improvised explosive devices as the terrorist weapon of choice.
The war in Iraq is accelerating the development of IED technology as terrorists and insurgents are forced to adapt their methods to defeat countermeasures, said Anders Nielsen, research fellow at the International Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research.
Insurgents in Iraq have experimented with multiple types of IEDs, and the devices have killed and maimed thousands of U.S. troops. By Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ account, at least 70 percent of U.S. casualties in Iraq are caused by IEDs.
Bomb makers in Iraq during the past four years have benefited from the lessons of trying to defeat a sophisticated enemy who is using complex countermeasures, Nielsen said.
For example, “the militants in Iraq constantly have to adapt their triggering devices,” he said at the Global Security Asia conference.
Improvised explosive devices as a terror tactic or means of assassination predated the Iraq invasion by a century or more. But as in any other field, there have been technological advances. The daily onslaught in Iraq is spreading to Afghanistan. IEDs, roadside bombs, or their vehicle-borne variations, have been used recently in headline making attacks in Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and Algeria.
Albert Ignatius D. Ferro, chief of the Philippine Bomb Data Center, said there is strong evidence showing that the methods of Dr. Azahari migrated to the southern Philippines, which has suffered a series of bomb attacks targeted at markets, bus stations and ferries.
There are “strong indications that Abu Sayeff, Jemaah Islamiyah and other terrorist groups are really collaborating to have a common type of IED,” Ferro said.
The basic ingredients of an IED are known in the business as SPICE — switch, power source, initiator, compartment and explosives.
Dr. Azahari was known for his skillful use of compartments. He sometimes employed Tupperware-like products to keep humidity from the device. He specialized in modular designs for bombs. For example, instead of placing the initiator — or detonator — on one end of the explosives, he placed them on both ends so the explosives would burn faster.
This required complex wiring systems.
“We’re talking about a very skilled bomb maker,” Nielsen said. “He was very confident in himself.”
He made everything from the ground up. Detonators were made from television antennas.
“You’re more vulnerable as an organization when you put that amount of skill into one man,” Nielsen said. “If he gets taken down, the organization suffers.”
The switches — or triggering devices — have been an area of rapid progress in IED technology, Nielsen said, particularly in Iraq, where insurgents are forced to innovate.
In the early stages of the insurgency, many triggers were the tried and true command wires — but those required proximity to the target. Mobile phones, walky-talkies, radio controlled toys, keyless entry systems all followed as U.S. forces countered with jamming technology.
Out of necessity, the triggering devices in Iraq have grown in sophistication, Nielsen said. Where jamming equipment is not used in the Philippines for example — insurgents have not needed complex switches, he said.
But there are some indications that this triggering know-how is migrating. High-powered cordless phones — a method first employed in Iraq — have been used in attacks in Pakistan and Algeria, he noted.
The one thing the triggers used in Iraq have in common is that they’re based on commercially available items.
However, the explosives are not.
The attack on the United Nations headquarters in Iraq employed a 250-pound bomb normally dropped from an aircraft.
“There are not many places where you just run off with an airplane bomb,” Nielsen said.
In the opening stages of the war, U.S. forces used too many of its resources looking for weapons of mass destruction that didn’t exist, and too few resources securing munitions depots, Nielsen noted.
The Defense Department estimates that there are 7 million tons of large caliber ammunition in Iraq.
It’s not difficult to make IEDs with conventional munitions, Nielsen said. They make much more efficient bombs than those using homemade concoctions. Homemade explosives don’t always turn out the way bomb makers want them to, he said.
“That is why they’re so successful in Iraq … they have so much of this stuff it enables them to prosecute a high frequency campaign,” Nielsen added.
The explosives terrorists use will depend on the region’s context. The Madrid train bombers used explosives acquired from Spain’s mining industry. In the Philippines, they use what they recover from the military — unexploded mortars, Claymore mines, misfired rocket-propelled grenades.
“It’s very important to look at how easy it is to get detonators and explosives, because that will determine what they’ll use,” Nielsen said.
And along with bomb making techniques, Iraq’s explosives are making it outside the borders. On at least two occasions, munitions smuggled from the country were used in terrorist attacks in neighboring Jordan, Nielsen said.
Bomb maker networks are spreading as well.
“I believe these organizations are studying what we do and are trying to circumvent those security measures we put in place,” Nielsen said.
However, the techniques are not as easy as some make them out to be. While there are web sites where terrorists can download instructions on how to make bombs, it doesn’t compare to hands-on training, he said.
As terrorists are networking to proliferate IED technology, their foes are teaming against them.
The Australian government is taking steps to set up a string of bomb data centers throughout Southeast Asia. The Philippine Bomb Data Center in Manila is one of the first. A grant of 5 million Australian dollars for the three-year initiative, the government hopes, will improve the investigative capabilities and serve as a repository of technical explosive intelligence.
A division of the Australian Federal Police, the Australian Bomb Data Center, was established in 1978. It is one of a string of centers established throughout the world. Part of their mission is to share information on bomb threats.
Australia is working to set up similar centers in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.
The U.S. equivalent resides in the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms. The international bombing incident program of the U.S. Bomb Data Center is to facilitate and promote the sharing of explosive related information among participating members and National Bomb Data Centers worldwide to combat international terrorism.
Part of its mission, according to its web site, is to “collect, store, retrieve and manage data relating to terrorist incidents, explosive devices, perpetrators, terrorist groups or methods of delivery amongst many other pieces of valuable information.”
Source: http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/
SINGAPORE — His name was Dr. Azahari bin Husin. He held a Ph.D. in statistical modeling from Redding University in England, and because of his innovations, he was considered one of the top experts in his field.
But he chose not to pursue a career in academia. Instead, he threw his talents into making deadly homemade bombs for the Jemaah Islamiah terror organization.
His work resulted in the deaths of about 250 victims in three high profile terrorist attacks in Indonesia — the worst of which, the October 2002 bombing on nightclubs in Bali, claimed 202 lives.
Dr. Azahari is dead — killed in 2005 during a shootout with Indonesian police — but his demise did little to stem the proliferation of improvised explosive devices as the terrorist weapon of choice.
The war in Iraq is accelerating the development of IED technology as terrorists and insurgents are forced to adapt their methods to defeat countermeasures, said Anders Nielsen, research fellow at the International Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research.
Insurgents in Iraq have experimented with multiple types of IEDs, and the devices have killed and maimed thousands of U.S. troops. By Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ account, at least 70 percent of U.S. casualties in Iraq are caused by IEDs.
Bomb makers in Iraq during the past four years have benefited from the lessons of trying to defeat a sophisticated enemy who is using complex countermeasures, Nielsen said.
For example, “the militants in Iraq constantly have to adapt their triggering devices,” he said at the Global Security Asia conference.
Improvised explosive devices as a terror tactic or means of assassination predated the Iraq invasion by a century or more. But as in any other field, there have been technological advances. The daily onslaught in Iraq is spreading to Afghanistan. IEDs, roadside bombs, or their vehicle-borne variations, have been used recently in headline making attacks in Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and Algeria.
Albert Ignatius D. Ferro, chief of the Philippine Bomb Data Center, said there is strong evidence showing that the methods of Dr. Azahari migrated to the southern Philippines, which has suffered a series of bomb attacks targeted at markets, bus stations and ferries.
There are “strong indications that Abu Sayeff, Jemaah Islamiyah and other terrorist groups are really collaborating to have a common type of IED,” Ferro said.
The basic ingredients of an IED are known in the business as SPICE — switch, power source, initiator, compartment and explosives.
Dr. Azahari was known for his skillful use of compartments. He sometimes employed Tupperware-like products to keep humidity from the device. He specialized in modular designs for bombs. For example, instead of placing the initiator — or detonator — on one end of the explosives, he placed them on both ends so the explosives would burn faster.
This required complex wiring systems.
“We’re talking about a very skilled bomb maker,” Nielsen said. “He was very confident in himself.”
He made everything from the ground up. Detonators were made from television antennas.
“You’re more vulnerable as an organization when you put that amount of skill into one man,” Nielsen said. “If he gets taken down, the organization suffers.”
The switches — or triggering devices — have been an area of rapid progress in IED technology, Nielsen said, particularly in Iraq, where insurgents are forced to innovate.
In the early stages of the insurgency, many triggers were the tried and true command wires — but those required proximity to the target. Mobile phones, walky-talkies, radio controlled toys, keyless entry systems all followed as U.S. forces countered with jamming technology.
Out of necessity, the triggering devices in Iraq have grown in sophistication, Nielsen said. Where jamming equipment is not used in the Philippines for example — insurgents have not needed complex switches, he said.
But there are some indications that this triggering know-how is migrating. High-powered cordless phones — a method first employed in Iraq — have been used in attacks in Pakistan and Algeria, he noted.
The one thing the triggers used in Iraq have in common is that they’re based on commercially available items.
However, the explosives are not.
The attack on the United Nations headquarters in Iraq employed a 250-pound bomb normally dropped from an aircraft.
“There are not many places where you just run off with an airplane bomb,” Nielsen said.
In the opening stages of the war, U.S. forces used too many of its resources looking for weapons of mass destruction that didn’t exist, and too few resources securing munitions depots, Nielsen noted.
The Defense Department estimates that there are 7 million tons of large caliber ammunition in Iraq.
It’s not difficult to make IEDs with conventional munitions, Nielsen said. They make much more efficient bombs than those using homemade concoctions. Homemade explosives don’t always turn out the way bomb makers want them to, he said.
“That is why they’re so successful in Iraq … they have so much of this stuff it enables them to prosecute a high frequency campaign,” Nielsen added.
The explosives terrorists use will depend on the region’s context. The Madrid train bombers used explosives acquired from Spain’s mining industry. In the Philippines, they use what they recover from the military — unexploded mortars, Claymore mines, misfired rocket-propelled grenades.
“It’s very important to look at how easy it is to get detonators and explosives, because that will determine what they’ll use,” Nielsen said.
And along with bomb making techniques, Iraq’s explosives are making it outside the borders. On at least two occasions, munitions smuggled from the country were used in terrorist attacks in neighboring Jordan, Nielsen said.
Bomb maker networks are spreading as well.
“I believe these organizations are studying what we do and are trying to circumvent those security measures we put in place,” Nielsen said.
However, the techniques are not as easy as some make them out to be. While there are web sites where terrorists can download instructions on how to make bombs, it doesn’t compare to hands-on training, he said.
As terrorists are networking to proliferate IED technology, their foes are teaming against them.
The Australian government is taking steps to set up a string of bomb data centers throughout Southeast Asia. The Philippine Bomb Data Center in Manila is one of the first. A grant of 5 million Australian dollars for the three-year initiative, the government hopes, will improve the investigative capabilities and serve as a repository of technical explosive intelligence.
A division of the Australian Federal Police, the Australian Bomb Data Center, was established in 1978. It is one of a string of centers established throughout the world. Part of their mission is to share information on bomb threats.
Australia is working to set up similar centers in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.
The U.S. equivalent resides in the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms. The international bombing incident program of the U.S. Bomb Data Center is to facilitate and promote the sharing of explosive related information among participating members and National Bomb Data Centers worldwide to combat international terrorism.
Part of its mission, according to its web site, is to “collect, store, retrieve and manage data relating to terrorist incidents, explosive devices, perpetrators, terrorist groups or methods of delivery amongst many other pieces of valuable information.”
Source: http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/
For the First Time, Navy Will Launch Weapons From
Surveillance Drones
By Sandra I. Erwin
Just like the Air Force, the Army and the CIA, the Navy soon could be deploying its own armed drones.
To that end, the Navy will request funds in fiscal year 2010 to begin outfitting its new surveillance drone with kinetic weapons.
The drone, which is scheduled to enter service next year, is the vertical-takeoff and landing tactical unmanned air vehicle, or VTUAV, which is also known as Fire Scout.
The aircraft is a modified Schweizer 333 helicopter that the Navy wants to fly off the decks of its littoral combat ships.
During the next several months, the Naval Air Systems Command will be examining various weapons that are considered viable candidates for the VTUAV.
“For the first time, we are looking at the integration of weapons on UAVs,” said Cmdr. Robert Murphy, team leader at the Naval Air Systems Command.
The weapons must be lightweight, Murphy said at a conference of the Precision Strike Association. The Fire Scout can carry only a 600-pound payload. The aircraft is being equipped with electro-optical infrared cameras. The Navy is seeking funds in 2009 to add a radar sensor.
The manufacturer of Fire Scout, Northrop Grumman Corp. of San Diego, already has fired 2.75-inch unguided rockets from the aircraft in tests two years ago at the Yuma Proving Ground, Ariz.
In the test, the Fire Scout lifted off, traveled nearly 10 miles to the firing range where the first rocket was fired. The aircraft remained in forward flight at about 40 knots during the first firing. For the second rocket launch, the Fire Scout increased its speed to 52 knots.
Northrop Grumman is under contract to build nine Fire Scouts but anticipates much bigger orders, said Michael Fuqua, a business development manager. The future of the aircraft is tied to the littoral combat ship. If the Navy reaches its current goal of building 56 ships, it could end up buying as many as 100 Fire Scouts. Fuqua said the aircraft also could fly off the decks of larger destroyers or amphibious vessels. “It is qualified to land on any air-capable ship,” he said in an interview.
The contractor tests at Yuma, which the Navy did not fund, only proved that weapons could be launched from Fire Scout, but the Navy still needs to do considerably more research in this area, said Murphy.
Upcoming studies will address the options available for weapons and launch mechanisms, he said.
The Navy would prefer to use weapons that already exist. “We don’t want to get tied to a big development,” said Murphy. “We want something we can integrate rapidly, that is easy to target.”
Northrop Grumman has done its own analysis on the various weapons available, Fuqua said. “There’s lots of them out there.” Options include missiles, smart bombs, projectiles and laser-guided rockets, he added.
The company would like to see the Navy adopt the Viper Strike semi-laser guided gliding weapon, which also is made by Northrop Grumman. The Army already has deployed the Viper Strike aboard its Hunter UAV. The gliding munition was designed to kill armored vehicles using GPS-aided navigation and a semi-active laser seeker.
The company is preparing for a major evaluation of the Fire Scout next year, when the aircraft will be tested by Navy planners in a live combat scenario.
“The primary threats are small swarming boats,” Fuqua said. The Fire Scout would hover over potential targets and provide images that commanders would use to determine whether an enemy boat should be struck. If needed, Fire Scout could also fly ashore for surveillance missions.
The aircraft route would be pre-programmed before it takes off, but it can be redirected while in flight if necessary. It can be controlled via UHF/VHF narrowband AN/ARC-210 radios or by a Ku-band tactical common data link. The aircraft is designed to endure 12-hour missions at distances of no more than 110 nautical miles. Its current speed is 80 knots, but the Navy predicts its maximum speed will reach 107 knots, Murphy said.
Eventually, the Navy wants the UAVs to exchange data with conventional attack aircraft, said Navy Capt. Donald Gaddis, program manager for the F/A-18 Hornet fighter jet.
“We’re thinking about how to communicate with UAVs,” he said at the conference. For that purpose, UAVs should be equipped with the Link 16 air-to-air information distribution system, and they should be part of the so-called “precise participant location and identification” network.
For the time being, the Navy will concentrate on understanding how to incorporate UAVs into combat scenarios at sea. “The problem with UAVs is that machines don’t understand the complexity of the decision making logic,” Murphy said. Just making them land on a moving ship is a “pretty complex challenge.” A major obstacle is the electromagnetic interference that occurs when the aircraft is trying to interact with radio emitters on the ship.
The Fire Scout program started in 2000 as a replacement for the aging Pioneer, which the Navy and the Marine Corps have been operating since 1985. But the Navy stopped funding the Fire Scout in 2001 as budgets shrank. The service resurrected it in 2004 as the VTUAV.
The Navy also has been engaged in an unmanned “combat air system” research effort to design and develop a strike aircraft that would operate from large-deck carriers. Northrop Grumman and the Boeing Company are competing for an upcoming award. The Navy budgeted approximately $240 million in 2007 for the “naval unmanned combat air vehicle carrier demonstration.”
Please email your comments to SErwin@ndia.org
http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/ issues/2007/June/ FirstTimeNavy.htm
By Sandra I. Erwin
Just like the Air Force, the Army and the CIA, the Navy soon could be deploying its own armed drones.
To that end, the Navy will request funds in fiscal year 2010 to begin outfitting its new surveillance drone with kinetic weapons.
The drone, which is scheduled to enter service next year, is the vertical-takeoff and landing tactical unmanned air vehicle, or VTUAV, which is also known as Fire Scout.
The aircraft is a modified Schweizer 333 helicopter that the Navy wants to fly off the decks of its littoral combat ships.
During the next several months, the Naval Air Systems Command will be examining various weapons that are considered viable candidates for the VTUAV.
“For the first time, we are looking at the integration of weapons on UAVs,” said Cmdr. Robert Murphy, team leader at the Naval Air Systems Command.
The weapons must be lightweight, Murphy said at a conference of the Precision Strike Association. The Fire Scout can carry only a 600-pound payload. The aircraft is being equipped with electro-optical infrared cameras. The Navy is seeking funds in 2009 to add a radar sensor.
The manufacturer of Fire Scout, Northrop Grumman Corp. of San Diego, already has fired 2.75-inch unguided rockets from the aircraft in tests two years ago at the Yuma Proving Ground, Ariz.
In the test, the Fire Scout lifted off, traveled nearly 10 miles to the firing range where the first rocket was fired. The aircraft remained in forward flight at about 40 knots during the first firing. For the second rocket launch, the Fire Scout increased its speed to 52 knots.
Northrop Grumman is under contract to build nine Fire Scouts but anticipates much bigger orders, said Michael Fuqua, a business development manager. The future of the aircraft is tied to the littoral combat ship. If the Navy reaches its current goal of building 56 ships, it could end up buying as many as 100 Fire Scouts. Fuqua said the aircraft also could fly off the decks of larger destroyers or amphibious vessels. “It is qualified to land on any air-capable ship,” he said in an interview.
The contractor tests at Yuma, which the Navy did not fund, only proved that weapons could be launched from Fire Scout, but the Navy still needs to do considerably more research in this area, said Murphy.
Upcoming studies will address the options available for weapons and launch mechanisms, he said.
The Navy would prefer to use weapons that already exist. “We don’t want to get tied to a big development,” said Murphy. “We want something we can integrate rapidly, that is easy to target.”
Northrop Grumman has done its own analysis on the various weapons available, Fuqua said. “There’s lots of them out there.” Options include missiles, smart bombs, projectiles and laser-guided rockets, he added.
The company would like to see the Navy adopt the Viper Strike semi-laser guided gliding weapon, which also is made by Northrop Grumman. The Army already has deployed the Viper Strike aboard its Hunter UAV. The gliding munition was designed to kill armored vehicles using GPS-aided navigation and a semi-active laser seeker.
The company is preparing for a major evaluation of the Fire Scout next year, when the aircraft will be tested by Navy planners in a live combat scenario.
“The primary threats are small swarming boats,” Fuqua said. The Fire Scout would hover over potential targets and provide images that commanders would use to determine whether an enemy boat should be struck. If needed, Fire Scout could also fly ashore for surveillance missions.
The aircraft route would be pre-programmed before it takes off, but it can be redirected while in flight if necessary. It can be controlled via UHF/VHF narrowband AN/ARC-210 radios or by a Ku-band tactical common data link. The aircraft is designed to endure 12-hour missions at distances of no more than 110 nautical miles. Its current speed is 80 knots, but the Navy predicts its maximum speed will reach 107 knots, Murphy said.
Eventually, the Navy wants the UAVs to exchange data with conventional attack aircraft, said Navy Capt. Donald Gaddis, program manager for the F/A-18 Hornet fighter jet.
“We’re thinking about how to communicate with UAVs,” he said at the conference. For that purpose, UAVs should be equipped with the Link 16 air-to-air information distribution system, and they should be part of the so-called “precise participant location and identification” network.
For the time being, the Navy will concentrate on understanding how to incorporate UAVs into combat scenarios at sea. “The problem with UAVs is that machines don’t understand the complexity of the decision making logic,” Murphy said. Just making them land on a moving ship is a “pretty complex challenge.” A major obstacle is the electromagnetic interference that occurs when the aircraft is trying to interact with radio emitters on the ship.
The Fire Scout program started in 2000 as a replacement for the aging Pioneer, which the Navy and the Marine Corps have been operating since 1985. But the Navy stopped funding the Fire Scout in 2001 as budgets shrank. The service resurrected it in 2004 as the VTUAV.
The Navy also has been engaged in an unmanned “combat air system” research effort to design and develop a strike aircraft that would operate from large-deck carriers. Northrop Grumman and the Boeing Company are competing for an upcoming award. The Navy budgeted approximately $240 million in 2007 for the “naval unmanned combat air vehicle carrier demonstration.”
Please email your comments to SErwin@ndia.org
http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/ issues/2007/June/ FirstTimeNavy.htm
Russian Air Force the first six operational trainers Yak-130
Irkutsk aircraft builders to supply 6 Yak-130 planes to AF in 2008
24.05.2007, 18.30
IRKUTSK, May 24 (Itar-Tass) - The Irkutsk Aviation Plant, a branch of the Irkut Corporation in 2008 will supply to the Russian Air Force the first six operational trainers Yak-130, Irkut President Oleg Demchenko told journalists on Thursday. The two-seat Yak-130 was designed by the OKB Yakovlev design bureau and is meant for the initial and advanced training of pilots. The plane’s aerodynamic configuration and parameters of its engine unit and systems make it possible to perform flight practically in all regimes characteristic of modern and perspective domestic and foreign warplanes, including Su-30, MiG-29, F-16.
In addition, the Yak can be used to practice the regimes of operational use of weapons of the air-to-air and air-to-surface type. The planes are capable of carrying of up to three tonnes of bombs and rockets on nine external load carrier points.
According to Demchenko, this operational trainer won in a tender of the Russian Air Force, which concluded a contract for the supply to it of 12 aircraft. In addition, 16 Yak-130 planes will be built for Algeria.
The Irkutsk Aviation Plant is known for the production of the Su-30 fighter jet of various modifications. It has also developed serial production of the Be-200 civilian amphibious planes. On the whole, the Irkut Corporation possesses a modern scientific-technical base corresponding to international standards, as well as highly qualified personnel numbering over 12,000 specialists. The portfolio of the corporation’s orders exceeds five billion US dollars.
Russia does not mind refusing from a billion dollars contract
Front page / Russia
05/24/2007 18:23 Source: Pravda.Ru
It seems that Russia will not reverse the plans of establishing the manufacturing of the Il-76 military transport planes in Ulyanovsk in any conditions. According to the general director of the Ilyushin aviation complex Victor Livanov the first Ulyanovsk made Il-76 will come up in 2010. It will be the plane for a specific customer. Theoretically it is possible to assume that this customer is Chinese Air Force. For long Russia has been considering the removal of the manufacturing of Il-76 from Tashkent (Uzbekistan) to Ulyanovsk. But officially the plans were announced after signing a billion contracts with China on delivering 34 transport and 4 tanker planes of this model. However, now this contract has been suspended by Russia. It is true that Russia is looking for the way of continuing the project, but its implementation under the terms agreed on in 2005 is no more possible. It will lead to huge losses as since 2005 the cost of materials and works considerably grew. Recently the head of the Federal Agency on Industry of Russia Boris Alyoshin visited Uzbekistan to participate in the session of the Russian-Uzbek intergovernmental commission. As a matter of fact all heavy military-transport planes Il-76 were made during Soviet times exclusively by the Tashkent plant. Russian enterprises did not have the capacities for assembling Il-76 at all.
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The most probable outcome is changing the conditions of the contract, raising it up to 1.5 billion USD. Experts believe that finally Russia will manage to persuade China to accept higher prices, although acknowledge that this will be used by the Chinese in the future contracts. Russia also intends to introduce technical changes as a result of the upgrade and removal from the Tashkent plant. This is supposed to justify the higher price and the delivery commencement in 2010, not in 2007, as it was originally planned.
Meanwhile irrespectively of the Chinese answer Russia is arranging manufacturing of Il-76 in Ulyanovsk. The upgraded aircraft, which will meet all possible technical requirements in the foreseeable future, is needed by the Russian Air Force. Ilyushin estimates the market of Il-76 and its modifications at 150 units before 2015. Half of that accounts for the Russian Air Force. However, Ilyushin admits that it will take longer, probably up to 2025 to satisfy this demand. By 2009 the government will allocate RUB 6.4 billion for establishing serial manufacturing in Ulyanovsk. Victor Livanov called these allocations “all necessary means”. As of today Ulyanovsk based Aviastar plans to make 10 Il-76 of different modifications from 2012.
24.05.2007, 18.30
IRKUTSK, May 24 (Itar-Tass) - The Irkutsk Aviation Plant, a branch of the Irkut Corporation in 2008 will supply to the Russian Air Force the first six operational trainers Yak-130, Irkut President Oleg Demchenko told journalists on Thursday. The two-seat Yak-130 was designed by the OKB Yakovlev design bureau and is meant for the initial and advanced training of pilots. The plane’s aerodynamic configuration and parameters of its engine unit and systems make it possible to perform flight practically in all regimes characteristic of modern and perspective domestic and foreign warplanes, including Su-30, MiG-29, F-16.
In addition, the Yak can be used to practice the regimes of operational use of weapons of the air-to-air and air-to-surface type. The planes are capable of carrying of up to three tonnes of bombs and rockets on nine external load carrier points.
According to Demchenko, this operational trainer won in a tender of the Russian Air Force, which concluded a contract for the supply to it of 12 aircraft. In addition, 16 Yak-130 planes will be built for Algeria.
The Irkutsk Aviation Plant is known for the production of the Su-30 fighter jet of various modifications. It has also developed serial production of the Be-200 civilian amphibious planes. On the whole, the Irkut Corporation possesses a modern scientific-technical base corresponding to international standards, as well as highly qualified personnel numbering over 12,000 specialists. The portfolio of the corporation’s orders exceeds five billion US dollars.
Russia does not mind refusing from a billion dollars contract
Front page / Russia
05/24/2007 18:23 Source: Pravda.Ru
It seems that Russia will not reverse the plans of establishing the manufacturing of the Il-76 military transport planes in Ulyanovsk in any conditions. According to the general director of the Ilyushin aviation complex Victor Livanov the first Ulyanovsk made Il-76 will come up in 2010. It will be the plane for a specific customer. Theoretically it is possible to assume that this customer is Chinese Air Force. For long Russia has been considering the removal of the manufacturing of Il-76 from Tashkent (Uzbekistan) to Ulyanovsk. But officially the plans were announced after signing a billion contracts with China on delivering 34 transport and 4 tanker planes of this model. However, now this contract has been suspended by Russia. It is true that Russia is looking for the way of continuing the project, but its implementation under the terms agreed on in 2005 is no more possible. It will lead to huge losses as since 2005 the cost of materials and works considerably grew. Recently the head of the Federal Agency on Industry of Russia Boris Alyoshin visited Uzbekistan to participate in the session of the Russian-Uzbek intergovernmental commission. As a matter of fact all heavy military-transport planes Il-76 were made during Soviet times exclusively by the Tashkent plant. Russian enterprises did not have the capacities for assembling Il-76 at all.
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The most probable outcome is changing the conditions of the contract, raising it up to 1.5 billion USD. Experts believe that finally Russia will manage to persuade China to accept higher prices, although acknowledge that this will be used by the Chinese in the future contracts. Russia also intends to introduce technical changes as a result of the upgrade and removal from the Tashkent plant. This is supposed to justify the higher price and the delivery commencement in 2010, not in 2007, as it was originally planned.
Meanwhile irrespectively of the Chinese answer Russia is arranging manufacturing of Il-76 in Ulyanovsk. The upgraded aircraft, which will meet all possible technical requirements in the foreseeable future, is needed by the Russian Air Force. Ilyushin estimates the market of Il-76 and its modifications at 150 units before 2015. Half of that accounts for the Russian Air Force. However, Ilyushin admits that it will take longer, probably up to 2025 to satisfy this demand. By 2009 the government will allocate RUB 6.4 billion for establishing serial manufacturing in Ulyanovsk. Victor Livanov called these allocations “all necessary means”. As of today Ulyanovsk based Aviastar plans to make 10 Il-76 of different modifications from 2012.
Karachi mayhem continuation oftribal areas bloodbath: Asfandyar
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=57066
By Shamim Bano
Karachi
Awami National Party (ANP) chief Asfandyar Wali Khan has said that the Lal Masjid episode and Karachi carnage on May 12 were intentionally created to convey a message to the Western world that if he (Musharraf) were not in power, then nuclear-armed Pakistan would fall into the hands of militants.
He said this while addressing the lawyers at the Karachi Bar Association on Monday. He said that the Lal Masjid issue had once again been created to divert the attention of the masses from the Karachi mayhem.
“The May 12 incidents should be viewed in a broader spectrum as it was the continuation of what is happening in Waziristan, Wana and Bajaur, pushing the country into darkness,” he said. “The writ of the government was applicable when Nawab Bugti was killed, but where this writ of the government has gone when a handful of ladies of Lal Masjid and Jamia Hafsa have challenged the same, he asked.
Asfandyar said that Musharraf wants to prolong his power by creating such situations as he wanted to make his masters believe that the time is not ripe for him to hand over the power to the elected representatives.
While appreciating the lawyers’ ongoing movement, he said though the political parties failed to materialize the street power but it were the lawyers who fought for the supremacy of the judiciary and the rule of law and he assured all out support on behalf of his party to the lawyers.
He ruled out any dialogue with the government saying talks would only be held if we were assured that Karachi is for all and not controlled by a coterie (tola). He refuted the statement of Chaudhry Shujaat that dialogue was being held with the ANP saying he (Shujaat) had exchanged a few words with him asking about his whereabouts, and that doesn’t mean that any negotiation was going on between them.
“I am the heir of Bacha Khan, who always promoted the lesson of peace, and I would not favour imposition of any restriction against the citizens to move to any part of the country and, he said, it was not easy to crush the loyal citizens at gunpoint.
“We (Pakhtoons) never compromise on principles and would not surrender in front of the militant group,” he said. Asfandyar called upon the political parties and the civil society to unite on a one-point agenda of getting the country rid of the army rule once for all.
He said soon he would approach all political parties to sit on a negotiating table to ponder over a strategy to rid the country of military rule.
He categorically denied that the May 12 killings were ethnic but political ones as workers of every political party including PPP, PML, JUI and even Urdu speaking were killed on that day. “But the MQM did not bury none of its workers as we did,” he said and added that he did not accept the MQM as a political party.
Later, talking to the media, he said that arms and ammunitions in the city were due to the wrong policies adopted during the Afghanistan war. He demanded that a case be registered against Musharaf as he was the main ‘culprit’ of the May 12 bloodbath.
On that day, he said, weapons were distributed from official’s cars and held the provincial as well as the central government responsible for the May 12 carnage. “If the federal government had taken comprehensive security measures on that day, the incidents would not have occurred,” he said and added that it was all pre-planned.
On the question of strike call given by the Loya Jirga, he said that the decision was taken by the Loya Jirga and he could not dare to resist the decision. He denied that he had come to the city on the invitation of the provincial government and the MQM saying that his sole purpose was to offer condolences to the families of the May 12 victims.
Qazi Hussain condoles with Asfandyar Wali
By our correspondent
Karachi
The President of Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) and Amir, Jamaat-e-Islami, Pakistan, Qazi Hussain Ahmed on Wednesday met the President of the Awami National Party (ANP) Asfandyar Wali Khan and condoled with him on the death of ANP activists who lost their lives in the Karachi violence and bloodshed of May 12.
The meeting took place at the Karachi residence of the President of Sindh chapter of the ANP, Shahi Syed, where he also offered Fateha for the departed souls.
Meanwhile, the MMA’s central leaders Qazi Hussain Ahmed and Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman, who is leader of opposition in the national assembly, visited the residence of Faisal Tariq, a sympathiser of Jamaat-e-Islami in the city who lost his life in the Karachi violence and terrorism of May 12. The two central MMA leaders condoled with the bereaved family of the Jamaat-e-Islami supporter. They also offered Fateha for the departed soul.
Sindh President of ANP Shahi Syed, Sari Gul Rahman of Jamiat-e-Ulama-e-Pakistan (S), Jamaat-e-Islami, Karachi chapter, Amir, Dr Merajul Huda Siddiqui, Qari Usman of Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan (F), and Maulana Abdul Karim Abdi, were also present during the visit of the two MMA leaders.
Meanwhile, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, on the second day of his Karachi visit, on Thursday (today) will address the members of the Malir Bar Association.
The Jamaat-e-Islami Amir will also visit the residences of various political workers who lost their lives or got injured in the violence and bloodshed of May 12, for expression of solidarity and sympathy with the victims and their families.
Later in the day, Qazi Hussain Ahmed will meet the family members of the late MMA leader, Shah Ahmed Noorani Siddiqui, at their residence.
JI LEADER’S CLARIFICATION: The Central Naib-Amir of the Jamaat-e-Islami, Prof Ghafoor Ahmed, has said that during his meeting with the Sindh Governor Dr Ishratul Ebad Khan, he had categorically communicated to the Governor the responsibility and role of President Gen Pervez Musharraf and Muttahida in the Karachi violence of May 12.
In a press statement on Wednesday, the central JI leader said that he was under serious obligation to inform the Governor about the facts of the May 12 terrorism and bloodshed.
He said that Gen Pervez Musharraf and the MQM bore total responsibility for the violence and terrorist incidents in Karachi on May 12 in which around 50 opposition political activists and other innocent civilians lost their lives due to blatant use of the latest weaponry.
He said that due to obvious terrorist and violence tactics adopted and used by the MQM the major cities of Sindh had turned into centres of lawlessness and crime causing immense damage to the cause of public safety and security. He said that due to activities of terrorist and anti-peace elements many notable personalities in the city including politicians had lost their lives
Web Sites Under Attack in a Murky War
By Natalya Krainova
Staff Writer
Moscow Times
Estonia has created a stir with its accusations that Kremlin-based hackers targeted government web sites. But it is not alone in grappling with cyber attacks.
Hackers in recent months have targeted outspoken pro-Kremlin youth groups, opposition forces, ultranationalist organizations and media outlets, crashing their web sites with what is known as Distributed Denial of Service, or DDoS, attacks -- the same type of attack that Estonia says was launched against its sites.
And by all appearances, cyber attacks are becoming a popular means of silencing political opponents, and some observers see the recent wave of attacks as a rehearsal for upcoming State Duma and presidential elections.
Targeted organizations almost without exception blame political opponents.
"It's clear that the attacks were inspired and ordered by the Kremlin, no matter who executed them," Alexander Averin, spokesman for the banned National Bolshevik Party, said of a DDoS attack on his group's web site that left it offline for about 30 days in February and March. "It was an attempt to suppress the opposition's resources."
Hackers this year have also attacked the sites of groups as politically disparate as the ultranationalist Movement Against Illegal Immigration; the pro-Kremlin youth groups Nashi, Young Russia and Mestniye; and The Other Russia, the opposition coalition that has organized a series of Dissenters' Marches this year.
Alexander Kalugin, a spokesman for Young Russia, said a six-hour DDoS attack on his group's web site in March was likely the work of Estonian nationalists angered over its protests outside the Estonian Embassy over plans to relocate a Soviet World War II monument in central Tallinn that sparked a recent diplomatic dispute.
"We were burning Estonian banners and trampling an effigy of the Estonian president," Kalugin said.
The Movement Against Illegal Immigration had 40 of its regional web sites struck by DDoS attacks from early February to early April, said Alexander Belov, the organization's leader.
Belov blamed the security services for carrying out the attacks under the pretext of battling extremism.
Not only political organizations have been attacked. Two of the country's last independent-minded media outlets -- the Kommersant newspaper and Ekho Moskvy radio -- both had their web sites targeted earlier this month.
Kommersant web editor Pavel Chernikov said the May 2 attack was likely retribution over the transcript of self-exiled businessman Boris Berezovsky's questioning by Russian investigators in London over the poisoning death of former KGB officer Alexander Litvinenko.
Ekho Moskvy editor Alexei Venediktov said the attacks, which paralyzed the station's site from May 1 to May 4, were the work of "political forces not interested in people's free access to information."
"This attack was a rehearsal ahead of State Duma elections on how to subdue an informational web site," Venediktov said.
The radio station has appealed to the Interior Ministry to open a criminal investigation into the attacks.
Oleg Panfilov, head of the Center for Journalism in Extreme Situations, echoed Venediktov's assessment, calling the attacks on opposition web sites an "information war" aimed at "suppressing freedom of speech on the Internet."
But experts say there is little chance that the hackers will be brought to justice in these attacks, or those on Estonian sites.
At the height of the Russian-Estonian dispute this month over the relocation of the Soviet monument, Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet issued a sharply worded statement that "cyber terrorist attacks" against Estonian government web sites had been traced to computers in the Russian presidential administration.
NATO has since sent a computer expert to Estonia to assess the ongoing attacks, which Estonia says started April 27, and Estonian Defense Minister Madis Mikko has likened them to military strikes.
In a DDoS attack, hackers use a so-called botnet, a network of computers that have been covertly infected to run malicious software. The botnet bombards a web site or server with requests from thousands of computers across the globe, thus making it inaccessible to legitimate web traffic. A computer owner might not even know that his computer is infected and sending the requests to a target server.
This is why the Estonian claim that the attacks came from the Russian presidential administration "may have some grounds and may not," said Mikhail Polyakov, who, when reached by telephone, identified himself as a top adviser in the administration.
Polyakov's name appeared as a contact on a list of IP addresses from which Estonia says the DDoS attacks have been conducted, a copy of which the Estonian Foreign Ministry provided to The Moscow Times.
The list includes the names, phone numbers and the work addresses for people who had registered with the IP addresses, and one of the addresses included is 4 Staraya Ploshchad, where the headquarters of the presidential administration are located.
The IP addresses in the Estonian list belong to various Russian government structures, including the Duma and the Federation Council, Polyakov said.
But even that doesn't mean Duma deputies or senators were somehow associated with the attacks, experts said.
"A professional connects to the server through anonymous IP addresses, and in this case there's no way he can be tracked down," said Yury Mashevsky, a computer virus expert with Moscow-based Kaspersky Lab.
"It's rare to find the true criminal," said Paul Sop, chief technology officer of the London-based Prolexic Technologies, which specializes in mitigating the consequences of DDoS attacks.
According to the Russian Criminal Code, anyone convicted of hacking can face up to two years in prison, while spreading computer viruses carries a maximum three-year sentence.
Political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky suggested that Vladislav Surkov, the powerful deputy head of President Vladimir Putin's administration, was running a "special department" orchestrating the attacks in order to "block information" ahead of the Duma elections in December and the presidential vote in March.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov firmly denied such possibility, however.
"As far as I know, among the departments that Surkov supervises there are no departments in charge of the Internet," Peskov said.
Commenting on the information about attacks on Estonian web sites coming from the Russian president's administration, Peskov said: "I've repeatedly said that it doesn't represent the facts. These are very serious accusations. Estonia should have proof of them."
Peskov could not explain, however, why web sites of the Russian president's administration were detected by the Estonian security systems. Asked whether hackers could have used the presidential administration web sites like that, he said: "That's impossible."
Staff Writer
Moscow Times
Estonia has created a stir with its accusations that Kremlin-based hackers targeted government web sites. But it is not alone in grappling with cyber attacks.
Hackers in recent months have targeted outspoken pro-Kremlin youth groups, opposition forces, ultranationalist organizations and media outlets, crashing their web sites with what is known as Distributed Denial of Service, or DDoS, attacks -- the same type of attack that Estonia says was launched against its sites.
And by all appearances, cyber attacks are becoming a popular means of silencing political opponents, and some observers see the recent wave of attacks as a rehearsal for upcoming State Duma and presidential elections.
Targeted organizations almost without exception blame political opponents.
"It's clear that the attacks were inspired and ordered by the Kremlin, no matter who executed them," Alexander Averin, spokesman for the banned National Bolshevik Party, said of a DDoS attack on his group's web site that left it offline for about 30 days in February and March. "It was an attempt to suppress the opposition's resources."
Hackers this year have also attacked the sites of groups as politically disparate as the ultranationalist Movement Against Illegal Immigration; the pro-Kremlin youth groups Nashi, Young Russia and Mestniye; and The Other Russia, the opposition coalition that has organized a series of Dissenters' Marches this year.
Alexander Kalugin, a spokesman for Young Russia, said a six-hour DDoS attack on his group's web site in March was likely the work of Estonian nationalists angered over its protests outside the Estonian Embassy over plans to relocate a Soviet World War II monument in central Tallinn that sparked a recent diplomatic dispute.
"We were burning Estonian banners and trampling an effigy of the Estonian president," Kalugin said.
The Movement Against Illegal Immigration had 40 of its regional web sites struck by DDoS attacks from early February to early April, said Alexander Belov, the organization's leader.
Belov blamed the security services for carrying out the attacks under the pretext of battling extremism.
Not only political organizations have been attacked. Two of the country's last independent-minded media outlets -- the Kommersant newspaper and Ekho Moskvy radio -- both had their web sites targeted earlier this month.
Kommersant web editor Pavel Chernikov said the May 2 attack was likely retribution over the transcript of self-exiled businessman Boris Berezovsky's questioning by Russian investigators in London over the poisoning death of former KGB officer Alexander Litvinenko.
Ekho Moskvy editor Alexei Venediktov said the attacks, which paralyzed the station's site from May 1 to May 4, were the work of "political forces not interested in people's free access to information."
"This attack was a rehearsal ahead of State Duma elections on how to subdue an informational web site," Venediktov said.
The radio station has appealed to the Interior Ministry to open a criminal investigation into the attacks.
Oleg Panfilov, head of the Center for Journalism in Extreme Situations, echoed Venediktov's assessment, calling the attacks on opposition web sites an "information war" aimed at "suppressing freedom of speech on the Internet."
But experts say there is little chance that the hackers will be brought to justice in these attacks, or those on Estonian sites.
At the height of the Russian-Estonian dispute this month over the relocation of the Soviet monument, Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet issued a sharply worded statement that "cyber terrorist attacks" against Estonian government web sites had been traced to computers in the Russian presidential administration.
NATO has since sent a computer expert to Estonia to assess the ongoing attacks, which Estonia says started April 27, and Estonian Defense Minister Madis Mikko has likened them to military strikes.
In a DDoS attack, hackers use a so-called botnet, a network of computers that have been covertly infected to run malicious software. The botnet bombards a web site or server with requests from thousands of computers across the globe, thus making it inaccessible to legitimate web traffic. A computer owner might not even know that his computer is infected and sending the requests to a target server.
This is why the Estonian claim that the attacks came from the Russian presidential administration "may have some grounds and may not," said Mikhail Polyakov, who, when reached by telephone, identified himself as a top adviser in the administration.
Polyakov's name appeared as a contact on a list of IP addresses from which Estonia says the DDoS attacks have been conducted, a copy of which the Estonian Foreign Ministry provided to The Moscow Times.
The list includes the names, phone numbers and the work addresses for people who had registered with the IP addresses, and one of the addresses included is 4 Staraya Ploshchad, where the headquarters of the presidential administration are located.
The IP addresses in the Estonian list belong to various Russian government structures, including the Duma and the Federation Council, Polyakov said.
But even that doesn't mean Duma deputies or senators were somehow associated with the attacks, experts said.
"A professional connects to the server through anonymous IP addresses, and in this case there's no way he can be tracked down," said Yury Mashevsky, a computer virus expert with Moscow-based Kaspersky Lab.
"It's rare to find the true criminal," said Paul Sop, chief technology officer of the London-based Prolexic Technologies, which specializes in mitigating the consequences of DDoS attacks.
According to the Russian Criminal Code, anyone convicted of hacking can face up to two years in prison, while spreading computer viruses carries a maximum three-year sentence.
Political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky suggested that Vladislav Surkov, the powerful deputy head of President Vladimir Putin's administration, was running a "special department" orchestrating the attacks in order to "block information" ahead of the Duma elections in December and the presidential vote in March.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov firmly denied such possibility, however.
"As far as I know, among the departments that Surkov supervises there are no departments in charge of the Internet," Peskov said.
Commenting on the information about attacks on Estonian web sites coming from the Russian president's administration, Peskov said: "I've repeatedly said that it doesn't represent the facts. These are very serious accusations. Estonia should have proof of them."
Peskov could not explain, however, why web sites of the Russian president's administration were detected by the Estonian security systems. Asked whether hackers could have used the presidential administration web sites like that, he said: "That's impossible."
TNK-BP Fights for Kovykta License
By Miriam Elder
Staff Writer
http://www.moscowtimes.ru/ stories/2007/ 05/24/001.html
TNK-BP will defend its right to develop the Kovykta gas field in east Siberia at an Irkutsk court next week, officials said Wednesday, as the British-Russian firm appeared to move closer to resolving a years-long standoff over Gazprom's entry into the project.
The opening hearing, scheduled for Monday, marks the first concrete attempt by TNK-BP to hold on to its license amid accusations by state officials that it has failed to fulfill production quotas.
The Natural Resources Ministry's environmental agency deployed four officials Wednesday to conduct an on-site investigation of the purported license violations, said Oleg Mitvol, the agency's deputy head.
Mitvol said he expected the investigation to wrap up by Friday.
"The investigation should answer one concrete question -- are they fulfilling their license requirements or not?" he said by telephone.
Even though TNK-BP holds Rusia Petroleum separately from its publicly traded TNK-BP Holding, TNK-BP shares fell 6.5 percent to $1.72 on the RTS exchange Wednesday amid a slide of Russian stocks. Some analysts said the drop was partly political fallout from the dispute between London and Moscow over the murder of former security services officer Alexander Litvinenko. (Story, Page 5.)
Kovykta license holder Rusia Petroleum, in which TNK-BP holds a 62.9 percent stake, is obliged to produce 9 billion cubic meters of gas per year. But it has been producing less than 1 bcm to supply weak local demand after Gazprom blocked the construction of a pipeline to China.
Analysts have long expected TNK-BP to become the next target of a Kremlin-driven strategy to bring major oil and gas projects under majority state control. The field, estimated to hold gas reserves of 1.9 trillion cubic meters, would fit well with Gazprom's strategy of boosting production in east Siberia, analysts said.
"Recently talks [with Gazprom] have been active and more frequent than at other times in the past," said Peter Henshaw, TNK-BP's vice president for communications.
TNK-BP CEO Robert Dudley has said he expected the two sides to reach a deal by summer. The company's negotiating team is headed by Viktor Vekselberg, who heads the company's gas development as well as TNK-BP shareholder Renova.
Yet Gazprom officials on Wednesday continued to deny any ongoing negotiations with TNK-BP, a 50-50 joint venture between oil giant BP and a trio of Russian oligarchs -- Vekselberg, Mikhail Fridman and Leonard Blavatnik.
Gazprom deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev said there were "no negotiations at this time" in an interview with the Financial Times published Wednesday.
"There were contacts with TNK-BP on Kovykta in the past, but no longer," Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov said.
"Why do we need [Kovykta]? We call this field a suitcase without a handle. It's a shame to throw it away, but it's heavy to carry."
Gazprom is also believed to be holding talks with the other shareholders in the $20 billion project. Interros, currently controlled by metals oligarchs Vladimir Potanin and Mikhail Prokhorov, holds a 25.8 percent stake in Rusia Petroleum, with the Irkutsk regional government holding the remaining 10.8 percent.
An Interros spokesman declined to comment on the talks.
TNK-BP's relations with authorities in the region, where the court case is taking place, remained good, TNK-BP spokeswoman Marina Dracheva said. "One of the courts' responsibilities is to provide legal clarification on documents. There is nothing antagonistic in that," she said.
TNK-BP would likely send legal representation to Monday's hearing, and the company expects representatives of the ministry's environmental agency to attend, she said.
"The court will be looking into the essence of the licensing agreement," she said.
The license obliges TNK-BP to produce 9 bcm annually starting in 2006, but the company says it does not expect local demand to surpass even 2.5 bcm by 2009.
Without access to Gazprom's jealously guarded pipeline monopoly, many companies turn to environmentally harmful gas flaring to avoid breaching the terms of their license. Others, such as TNK-BP, constrain themselves to limiting production.
Natural Resources Minister Yury Trutnev said last week that he expected TNK-BP's license to be revoked.
Mitvol's agency does not have the power to revoke licenses. But the outspoken official is seen as the public face of the Kremlin's campaign to ensure a state presence in all major oil and gas projects. He headed the onslaught against Sakhalin-2 last year as operator Shell handed over a 51 percent stake to Gazprom after months of pressure from the environmental agency.
"The point at which BP gets leveraged out of its holdings in Kovykta seems to be ... close," said Roland Nash, chief strategist at Renaissance Capital.
The Kremlin could be waiting until after the Group of Eight summit in Germany's Baltic resort of Heiligendamm to strike a deal as a way of avoiding undue international attention ahead of what is already expected to be a tense meeting, Nash said.
"But relations between Russia and the West are tail-spinning so much that perhaps they wouldn't care so much," he added.
Aside from seeking entry into Kovykta, Gazprom has also said it is interested in buying the 50 percent stake of TNK-BP's Russian shareholders when a clause obliging them to maintain ownership runs out at the end of this year.
"The incentive to get a deal done across the board -- for both BP and the Russian government -- is high," Nash said.
Staff Writer
http://www.moscowtimes.ru/ stories/2007/ 05/24/001.html
TNK-BP will defend its right to develop the Kovykta gas field in east Siberia at an Irkutsk court next week, officials said Wednesday, as the British-Russian firm appeared to move closer to resolving a years-long standoff over Gazprom's entry into the project.
The opening hearing, scheduled for Monday, marks the first concrete attempt by TNK-BP to hold on to its license amid accusations by state officials that it has failed to fulfill production quotas.
The Natural Resources Ministry's environmental agency deployed four officials Wednesday to conduct an on-site investigation of the purported license violations, said Oleg Mitvol, the agency's deputy head.
Mitvol said he expected the investigation to wrap up by Friday.
"The investigation should answer one concrete question -- are they fulfilling their license requirements or not?" he said by telephone.
Even though TNK-BP holds Rusia Petroleum separately from its publicly traded TNK-BP Holding, TNK-BP shares fell 6.5 percent to $1.72 on the RTS exchange Wednesday amid a slide of Russian stocks. Some analysts said the drop was partly political fallout from the dispute between London and Moscow over the murder of former security services officer Alexander Litvinenko. (Story, Page 5.)
Kovykta license holder Rusia Petroleum, in which TNK-BP holds a 62.9 percent stake, is obliged to produce 9 billion cubic meters of gas per year. But it has been producing less than 1 bcm to supply weak local demand after Gazprom blocked the construction of a pipeline to China.
Analysts have long expected TNK-BP to become the next target of a Kremlin-driven strategy to bring major oil and gas projects under majority state control. The field, estimated to hold gas reserves of 1.9 trillion cubic meters, would fit well with Gazprom's strategy of boosting production in east Siberia, analysts said.
"Recently talks [with Gazprom] have been active and more frequent than at other times in the past," said Peter Henshaw, TNK-BP's vice president for communications.
TNK-BP CEO Robert Dudley has said he expected the two sides to reach a deal by summer. The company's negotiating team is headed by Viktor Vekselberg, who heads the company's gas development as well as TNK-BP shareholder Renova.
Yet Gazprom officials on Wednesday continued to deny any ongoing negotiations with TNK-BP, a 50-50 joint venture between oil giant BP and a trio of Russian oligarchs -- Vekselberg, Mikhail Fridman and Leonard Blavatnik.
Gazprom deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev said there were "no negotiations at this time" in an interview with the Financial Times published Wednesday.
"There were contacts with TNK-BP on Kovykta in the past, but no longer," Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov said.
"Why do we need [Kovykta]? We call this field a suitcase without a handle. It's a shame to throw it away, but it's heavy to carry."
Gazprom is also believed to be holding talks with the other shareholders in the $20 billion project. Interros, currently controlled by metals oligarchs Vladimir Potanin and Mikhail Prokhorov, holds a 25.8 percent stake in Rusia Petroleum, with the Irkutsk regional government holding the remaining 10.8 percent.
An Interros spokesman declined to comment on the talks.
TNK-BP's relations with authorities in the region, where the court case is taking place, remained good, TNK-BP spokeswoman Marina Dracheva said. "One of the courts' responsibilities is to provide legal clarification on documents. There is nothing antagonistic in that," she said.
TNK-BP would likely send legal representation to Monday's hearing, and the company expects representatives of the ministry's environmental agency to attend, she said.
"The court will be looking into the essence of the licensing agreement," she said.
The license obliges TNK-BP to produce 9 bcm annually starting in 2006, but the company says it does not expect local demand to surpass even 2.5 bcm by 2009.
Without access to Gazprom's jealously guarded pipeline monopoly, many companies turn to environmentally harmful gas flaring to avoid breaching the terms of their license. Others, such as TNK-BP, constrain themselves to limiting production.
Natural Resources Minister Yury Trutnev said last week that he expected TNK-BP's license to be revoked.
Mitvol's agency does not have the power to revoke licenses. But the outspoken official is seen as the public face of the Kremlin's campaign to ensure a state presence in all major oil and gas projects. He headed the onslaught against Sakhalin-2 last year as operator Shell handed over a 51 percent stake to Gazprom after months of pressure from the environmental agency.
"The point at which BP gets leveraged out of its holdings in Kovykta seems to be ... close," said Roland Nash, chief strategist at Renaissance Capital.
The Kremlin could be waiting until after the Group of Eight summit in Germany's Baltic resort of Heiligendamm to strike a deal as a way of avoiding undue international attention ahead of what is already expected to be a tense meeting, Nash said.
"But relations between Russia and the West are tail-spinning so much that perhaps they wouldn't care so much," he added.
Aside from seeking entry into Kovykta, Gazprom has also said it is interested in buying the 50 percent stake of TNK-BP's Russian shareholders when a clause obliging them to maintain ownership runs out at the end of this year.
"The incentive to get a deal done across the board -- for both BP and the Russian government -- is high," Nash said.
Bush's Iraq victory rings hollow
Democrats back down from an Iraq war confrontation, but many say it is only a temporary victory for Bush and that the failure in Iraq will bring the Democrats to the White House in 2008.
By Dominic Moran in Tel Aviv for ISN Security Watch (24/05/07)
Democrats stepped back from a growing confrontation with the White House over the conduct and funding of the Iraq war this week, ending a potentially politically damaging stalemate.
The back-down was interpreted by Republicans as a significant political victory for President George W Bush who won Democratic support for a redrafted US$100 billion supplemental appropriations bill, which provides funding for US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan through to September.
The negotiated compromise comes after Bush vetoed an earlier House bill over stipulations therein setting a timetable for future US troop withdrawals from Iraq, which the president adamantly opposes.
"I think it is a small temporary victory [for Bush], but it is not an unsurprising one given that they [Democrats] didn't have the votes to overturn the veto," Council on Foreign Relations analyst Peter Beinart told ISN Security Watch.
MIT Center for International Studies Executive-Director Dr John Tirman agreed, "I don't think it is a clear cut victory. I think that the Democrats realized that somebody had to compromise; and there were compromises actually on both sides."
"There are benchmarks, reporting requirements and some other elements of the bill that Bush did not originally want," he explained.
Democrats knew the initial bill would not escape a presidential veto but saw it as a significant move in establishing key points of differentiation between the two parties ahead of the November 2008 presidential poll.
Asked why the Democrats chose to make a stand on war funding now, Beinart replied, "The polling has moved in the country to such an extent that it is not as dangerous as it once was. The public is very dissatisfied with the war policy and with the surge."
He added that the growing importance of web activism meant that Democratic lawmakers were now under considerably more pressure to appease highly mobilized party activists.
While Iraq will not be the sole focus, the 2008 presidential race is increasingly shaping up as a referendum on Republican handling of the conflict.
Horse trading
In a political trade-off, Bush appears willing to sign off on elements of the new funding bill, stipulating benchmarks that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government must achieve in order to avoid cuts in reconstruction funding.
In return, Democrats agreed to drop all reference to timetables from the legislation.
According to reports, the bill will be debated by Congress on Thursday and is likely to face significant opposition from liberal Democrats, before passing comfortably with support from across the floor.
Democratic congressmen will have the opportunity to signal their ongoing opposition to the lack of timetables in the new bill by rejecting a second motion that excises US$17 billion in new spending allocations won by Democrats in negotiations with the White House.
The additional disbursements attached to the Iraq funding bill include a significant rise in the minimum wage and hurricane relief - measures designed to shore up the core Democratic vote.
Benchmarks
In the compromise bill, potential penalties for Iraqi non-compliance with established benchmarks, won by Democrats, are subject to presidential veto.
Asked if Bush would be willing to cut reconstruction aid, Tirman said, "I am not entirely clear on what the enforcement mechanisms are going to be; and this is always dodgy even when it is somewhat spelled out because Bush has been making 'signing statements' on bills," establishing his interpretation of congressional decisions.
Pushing the idea of benchmarks provides Democrats with a centrist, consensus position from which to rebuff Republican charges that they are undermining US forces in Iraq.
"The whole debate has a kabookie quality to it," Beinart said. "Any realistic assessment suggests that the Iraqi government is facing long-term problems that can't be addressed in weeks or even months."
"It is not too cynical to see some of the debate here in Washington as just trying to find a way of blaming the Iraqi government for America's withdrawal without there being a realistic opportunity that they could do anything to change that dynamic," he said.
Internal divisions
There has been media speculation in the wake of the Democratic back-down that past rifts within the party over Iraq could reappear, threatening the party's chances in the 2008 elections.
"I think there is going to be a little intramural skirmishing on Iraq among the Democrats," Tirman said. However, "there are fewer divisions now than there probably were six to eight months ago. Virtually the entire party is agreed that there should be a timetable for withdrawal."
"The [Democratic presidential] candidates will look for a little bit of advantage here and there […] but I think they want to stay more-or-less unified on this so as not to take away their main advantage in the general election," he said.
"The Democratic Party in Congress, even though it was inflated in the 2006 election by a group of people who represent somewhat more conservative districts in the south and Midwest, has actually held together quite well," Beinart agreed, "because even in conservative parts of the country the trend in public opinion is quite strongly anti-war."
While Democrats seek a unified, centrist position on Iraq, Republican presidential candidates face more serious challenges in dealing with the likely keystone campaign issue.
"I think that the chances that Republican unity can be maintained aren't that great," Beinart said. "The Republican party is looking at polling that is starting to look rather apocalyptic as we move forwards towards 2008; a public that is very anti-Iraq and very anti-Bush, and in danger of turning very anti-Republican generally."
According to Beinart, Republican candidates need to present themselves as proffering an honorable withdrawal from Iraq, saying, "We Republicans are ending this war but we're doing it in a dignified, responsible way. The Democrats just want to run with their tails between their legs to the exits."
"Republicans are much better served if they have some sort of withdrawal going into 2008," he added.
Familiar plan
There are increasing indications that the Bush administration is grudgingly recognizing the need to move towards the Iraq Study Group's proposals.
US and Iranian officials are to meet for bilateral negotiations on Iraq, after representatives of both states attended conferences in Baghdad and Sharm-el Sheikh on Iraq reconstruction. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem met on the sidelines of the Sharm summit, effectively ending the unilateral US diplomat boycott of the Baathist state.
'They do seem more open to talking to Iran and Syria than they were before and there definitely has been some movement," Beinart acknowledged.
"I think it still seems far off that the Bush administration would be willing to put the kinds of things on the table that would actually get some kind of deal or fundamental change in relations with Syria or Iran," he said.
Second surge?
Tirman noted that a media article this week purportedly revealed that a second troop deployment to Iraq was planned and would see US forces in Iraq strengthened significantly, "from 162,000 now to more than 200,000."
"Now, if that is true, then we are going to have another debate about this, which, I think, is going to overshadow the current debate about the surge and US policy," Tirman said.
Asked if charges that Democrats are not supporting the troops would stick, Tirman said: "I don't think that that is going to weigh on them in the long-run," and would not appeal to centrist voters.
Maintaining pressure
Democrats will have a second chance to raise the issue of war disbursements when legislation authorizing annual funding allocations to the Pentagon - the Defense Authorization and Defense Appropriations bills - comes before Congress, reportedly in September.
The Iraq funding bill to be debated this week is expected to require Bush to report to Congress on progress in Iraq in July and September.
US forces in Iraq General David Petraeus has also promised a progress report on the Iraq war in the same month, but - in a sign that he is seeking to take the political sting out of the update - said last week that his briefing would not contain "anything definitive."
If by September the Iraq government fails to promote genuine governance reform and the security situation in the country does not improve, a growing minority of Republican legislators have already indicated that they would come out openly against Bush's Iraq policy.
Despite pledging to again attach timetables for withdrawal to future legislation on war spending, Democrats may find it impolitic to promote a stand-off with the White House so far out from the election, but will look to maintain pressure.
Beinart explained: "The Democrats view is that the more times you get Republicans on record voting for the status quo the better […] you just keep the pressure on unrelentingly until they crack, so I think they'll use that [September votes and reports] as an opportunity."
Tirman told ISN Security Watch that he was "completely of the opinion that unless something very unusual happens […] the Democrats will win the election no matter who is nominated because Iraq is such an albatross around the Republicans neck and they don't have any plausible escape from public wrath."
"As long as the Democrats don't split dramatically on this – and I don't see any reason why they would - then this is the issue that will take them into the White House."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr. Dominic Moran is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in the Middle East.
By Dominic Moran in Tel Aviv for ISN Security Watch (24/05/07)
Democrats stepped back from a growing confrontation with the White House over the conduct and funding of the Iraq war this week, ending a potentially politically damaging stalemate.
The back-down was interpreted by Republicans as a significant political victory for President George W Bush who won Democratic support for a redrafted US$100 billion supplemental appropriations bill, which provides funding for US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan through to September.
The negotiated compromise comes after Bush vetoed an earlier House bill over stipulations therein setting a timetable for future US troop withdrawals from Iraq, which the president adamantly opposes.
"I think it is a small temporary victory [for Bush], but it is not an unsurprising one given that they [Democrats] didn't have the votes to overturn the veto," Council on Foreign Relations analyst Peter Beinart told ISN Security Watch.
MIT Center for International Studies Executive-Director Dr John Tirman agreed, "I don't think it is a clear cut victory. I think that the Democrats realized that somebody had to compromise; and there were compromises actually on both sides."
"There are benchmarks, reporting requirements and some other elements of the bill that Bush did not originally want," he explained.
Democrats knew the initial bill would not escape a presidential veto but saw it as a significant move in establishing key points of differentiation between the two parties ahead of the November 2008 presidential poll.
Asked why the Democrats chose to make a stand on war funding now, Beinart replied, "The polling has moved in the country to such an extent that it is not as dangerous as it once was. The public is very dissatisfied with the war policy and with the surge."
He added that the growing importance of web activism meant that Democratic lawmakers were now under considerably more pressure to appease highly mobilized party activists.
While Iraq will not be the sole focus, the 2008 presidential race is increasingly shaping up as a referendum on Republican handling of the conflict.
Horse trading
In a political trade-off, Bush appears willing to sign off on elements of the new funding bill, stipulating benchmarks that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government must achieve in order to avoid cuts in reconstruction funding.
In return, Democrats agreed to drop all reference to timetables from the legislation.
According to reports, the bill will be debated by Congress on Thursday and is likely to face significant opposition from liberal Democrats, before passing comfortably with support from across the floor.
Democratic congressmen will have the opportunity to signal their ongoing opposition to the lack of timetables in the new bill by rejecting a second motion that excises US$17 billion in new spending allocations won by Democrats in negotiations with the White House.
The additional disbursements attached to the Iraq funding bill include a significant rise in the minimum wage and hurricane relief - measures designed to shore up the core Democratic vote.
Benchmarks
In the compromise bill, potential penalties for Iraqi non-compliance with established benchmarks, won by Democrats, are subject to presidential veto.
Asked if Bush would be willing to cut reconstruction aid, Tirman said, "I am not entirely clear on what the enforcement mechanisms are going to be; and this is always dodgy even when it is somewhat spelled out because Bush has been making 'signing statements' on bills," establishing his interpretation of congressional decisions.
Pushing the idea of benchmarks provides Democrats with a centrist, consensus position from which to rebuff Republican charges that they are undermining US forces in Iraq.
"The whole debate has a kabookie quality to it," Beinart said. "Any realistic assessment suggests that the Iraqi government is facing long-term problems that can't be addressed in weeks or even months."
"It is not too cynical to see some of the debate here in Washington as just trying to find a way of blaming the Iraqi government for America's withdrawal without there being a realistic opportunity that they could do anything to change that dynamic," he said.
Internal divisions
There has been media speculation in the wake of the Democratic back-down that past rifts within the party over Iraq could reappear, threatening the party's chances in the 2008 elections.
"I think there is going to be a little intramural skirmishing on Iraq among the Democrats," Tirman said. However, "there are fewer divisions now than there probably were six to eight months ago. Virtually the entire party is agreed that there should be a timetable for withdrawal."
"The [Democratic presidential] candidates will look for a little bit of advantage here and there […] but I think they want to stay more-or-less unified on this so as not to take away their main advantage in the general election," he said.
"The Democratic Party in Congress, even though it was inflated in the 2006 election by a group of people who represent somewhat more conservative districts in the south and Midwest, has actually held together quite well," Beinart agreed, "because even in conservative parts of the country the trend in public opinion is quite strongly anti-war."
While Democrats seek a unified, centrist position on Iraq, Republican presidential candidates face more serious challenges in dealing with the likely keystone campaign issue.
"I think that the chances that Republican unity can be maintained aren't that great," Beinart said. "The Republican party is looking at polling that is starting to look rather apocalyptic as we move forwards towards 2008; a public that is very anti-Iraq and very anti-Bush, and in danger of turning very anti-Republican generally."
According to Beinart, Republican candidates need to present themselves as proffering an honorable withdrawal from Iraq, saying, "We Republicans are ending this war but we're doing it in a dignified, responsible way. The Democrats just want to run with their tails between their legs to the exits."
"Republicans are much better served if they have some sort of withdrawal going into 2008," he added.
Familiar plan
There are increasing indications that the Bush administration is grudgingly recognizing the need to move towards the Iraq Study Group's proposals.
US and Iranian officials are to meet for bilateral negotiations on Iraq, after representatives of both states attended conferences in Baghdad and Sharm-el Sheikh on Iraq reconstruction. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem met on the sidelines of the Sharm summit, effectively ending the unilateral US diplomat boycott of the Baathist state.
'They do seem more open to talking to Iran and Syria than they were before and there definitely has been some movement," Beinart acknowledged.
"I think it still seems far off that the Bush administration would be willing to put the kinds of things on the table that would actually get some kind of deal or fundamental change in relations with Syria or Iran," he said.
Second surge?
Tirman noted that a media article this week purportedly revealed that a second troop deployment to Iraq was planned and would see US forces in Iraq strengthened significantly, "from 162,000 now to more than 200,000."
"Now, if that is true, then we are going to have another debate about this, which, I think, is going to overshadow the current debate about the surge and US policy," Tirman said.
Asked if charges that Democrats are not supporting the troops would stick, Tirman said: "I don't think that that is going to weigh on them in the long-run," and would not appeal to centrist voters.
Maintaining pressure
Democrats will have a second chance to raise the issue of war disbursements when legislation authorizing annual funding allocations to the Pentagon - the Defense Authorization and Defense Appropriations bills - comes before Congress, reportedly in September.
The Iraq funding bill to be debated this week is expected to require Bush to report to Congress on progress in Iraq in July and September.
US forces in Iraq General David Petraeus has also promised a progress report on the Iraq war in the same month, but - in a sign that he is seeking to take the political sting out of the update - said last week that his briefing would not contain "anything definitive."
If by September the Iraq government fails to promote genuine governance reform and the security situation in the country does not improve, a growing minority of Republican legislators have already indicated that they would come out openly against Bush's Iraq policy.
Despite pledging to again attach timetables for withdrawal to future legislation on war spending, Democrats may find it impolitic to promote a stand-off with the White House so far out from the election, but will look to maintain pressure.
Beinart explained: "The Democrats view is that the more times you get Republicans on record voting for the status quo the better […] you just keep the pressure on unrelentingly until they crack, so I think they'll use that [September votes and reports] as an opportunity."
Tirman told ISN Security Watch that he was "completely of the opinion that unless something very unusual happens […] the Democrats will win the election no matter who is nominated because Iraq is such an albatross around the Republicans neck and they don't have any plausible escape from public wrath."
"As long as the Democrats don't split dramatically on this – and I don't see any reason why they would - then this is the issue that will take them into the White House."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr. Dominic Moran is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in the Middle East.
The EU is at a dead end over Iran
18:23 | 24/ 05/ 2007
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov) - Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, thinks that Iran has gone so far in its nuclear program that it is no longer relevant to demand that it should stop uranium enrichment.
Moreover, he believes that since the major world powers have come to terms with a nuclear North Korea, they should do the same towards Iran. It turns out that the head of an organization in charge of monitoring compliance with nuclear non-proliferation is urging the world community to accept the idea that another country will join the nuclear club in the near future.
If this is so, the much-abused Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) may be buried - what's the point of having a treaty that is so easy to breach? Moreover, even the UN Security Council is unable to uphold it.
On March 24, it approved Resolution 1747, providing for tougher sanctions compared with the previous resolution and giving Iran 60 days to stop all uranium enrichment. If you believe Iranian officials, a total of 1,600 centrifuges are currently in operation at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility. Upon the expiry of this deadline, ElBaradei should submit to the Security Council a report on Iran's compliance with the resolution.
When the resolution was adopted, Iran had two cascades with 164 centrifuges each. Iran has refused to stop uranium enrichment. In order to reach an industrial level of nuclear fuel production for its nuclear power plants, Tehran intends to launch 3,000 centrifuges. The Iranian leaders have declared their intention to have more than 50,000 centrifuges up and running in order to meet the requirements of their civilian nuclear power industry.
This is no bluff. The Natanz facility is designed for 54,000 centrifuges. They will be capable of producing the required amount of nuclear fuel for 20 nuclear units with an aggregate capacity of 20,000 megawatts that are mentioned in all of Iran's plans for its nuclear industry. The first unit is now under construction in Bushehr.
The experience of the Bushehr nuclear plant shows that the construction of 20 one-megawatt units will take decades. This is why experts are wondering why Iran is rushing to get 50,000 centrifuges if it does not even have the technology to handle enriched uranium. The very idea of starting industrial uranium enrichment on 3,000 centrifuges, not to mention the commissioning of the entire enrichment facility in Natanz, is counterproductive.
However, there are other calculations that allow one to look at this problem from another angle. Experts believe that 3,000 centrifuges can enrich uranium to the level of 80%-90% required for one nuclear bomb, whereas 50,000 can accomplish this task in five to seven weeks or two months at most.
These facts allow the West, especially the United States, Iran's main opponent, to accuse Tehran of trying to develop technology for producing weapons-grade uranium.
The world community will soon try to lure Iran back to the negotiating table. The UN Security Council is drafting its third resolution on Iran, and on May 31 Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, will meet Javier Solana, the EU's foreign and security policy chief, for a second round of talks.
However, these talks are giving rise to many questions. It seems that Solana, a skillful negotiator, does not really know what he wants from Iran. In turn, Iran is playing the same game - it does not know what the world should expect from it.
After the first round of the talks in Ankara in the latter half of April, Larijani and Solana reported progress in drawing up a common Iran-EU position. It is clear what progress Larijani had in mind. Since last March, Iran has increased its nuclear-enrichment capacity by five times! Moreover, Tehran adamantly rejects the idea of resuming talks with strings attached - Iran is supposed to stop all uranium enrichment if it wants to return to the negotiating table. The more centrifuges go into operation, the more confident and uncompromising Tehran's tone becomes.
But what did Javier Solana have in mind when he talked about progress?
Maybe, he thinks like ElBaradei, and for him progress means that he has also realized that it is no longer urgent to demand that Iran cease nuclear enrichment activities.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov) - Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, thinks that Iran has gone so far in its nuclear program that it is no longer relevant to demand that it should stop uranium enrichment.
Moreover, he believes that since the major world powers have come to terms with a nuclear North Korea, they should do the same towards Iran. It turns out that the head of an organization in charge of monitoring compliance with nuclear non-proliferation is urging the world community to accept the idea that another country will join the nuclear club in the near future.
If this is so, the much-abused Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) may be buried - what's the point of having a treaty that is so easy to breach? Moreover, even the UN Security Council is unable to uphold it.
On March 24, it approved Resolution 1747, providing for tougher sanctions compared with the previous resolution and giving Iran 60 days to stop all uranium enrichment. If you believe Iranian officials, a total of 1,600 centrifuges are currently in operation at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility. Upon the expiry of this deadline, ElBaradei should submit to the Security Council a report on Iran's compliance with the resolution.
When the resolution was adopted, Iran had two cascades with 164 centrifuges each. Iran has refused to stop uranium enrichment. In order to reach an industrial level of nuclear fuel production for its nuclear power plants, Tehran intends to launch 3,000 centrifuges. The Iranian leaders have declared their intention to have more than 50,000 centrifuges up and running in order to meet the requirements of their civilian nuclear power industry.
This is no bluff. The Natanz facility is designed for 54,000 centrifuges. They will be capable of producing the required amount of nuclear fuel for 20 nuclear units with an aggregate capacity of 20,000 megawatts that are mentioned in all of Iran's plans for its nuclear industry. The first unit is now under construction in Bushehr.
The experience of the Bushehr nuclear plant shows that the construction of 20 one-megawatt units will take decades. This is why experts are wondering why Iran is rushing to get 50,000 centrifuges if it does not even have the technology to handle enriched uranium. The very idea of starting industrial uranium enrichment on 3,000 centrifuges, not to mention the commissioning of the entire enrichment facility in Natanz, is counterproductive.
However, there are other calculations that allow one to look at this problem from another angle. Experts believe that 3,000 centrifuges can enrich uranium to the level of 80%-90% required for one nuclear bomb, whereas 50,000 can accomplish this task in five to seven weeks or two months at most.
These facts allow the West, especially the United States, Iran's main opponent, to accuse Tehran of trying to develop technology for producing weapons-grade uranium.
The world community will soon try to lure Iran back to the negotiating table. The UN Security Council is drafting its third resolution on Iran, and on May 31 Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, will meet Javier Solana, the EU's foreign and security policy chief, for a second round of talks.
However, these talks are giving rise to many questions. It seems that Solana, a skillful negotiator, does not really know what he wants from Iran. In turn, Iran is playing the same game - it does not know what the world should expect from it.
After the first round of the talks in Ankara in the latter half of April, Larijani and Solana reported progress in drawing up a common Iran-EU position. It is clear what progress Larijani had in mind. Since last March, Iran has increased its nuclear-enrichment capacity by five times! Moreover, Tehran adamantly rejects the idea of resuming talks with strings attached - Iran is supposed to stop all uranium enrichment if it wants to return to the negotiating table. The more centrifuges go into operation, the more confident and uncompromising Tehran's tone becomes.
But what did Javier Solana have in mind when he talked about progress?
Maybe, he thinks like ElBaradei, and for him progress means that he has also realized that it is no longer urgent to demand that Iran cease nuclear enrichment activities.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
Russia's Northern Sea Route: Just a dotted line on the map?
21:33 | 23/ 05/ 2007
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Maxim Krans) - Debates over the Northern Sea Route, a shipping lane from the Atlantic to the Pacific along the coast of northern Russia, have been going on for many years.
Local residents are sounding the alarm, scientists and journalists are crossing swords, and even MPs are worried about this problem, unable to take a nap in their comfy chairs. Russia's State Council, an advisory body consisting of the country's regional leaders, and the Sea College discussed it again at their May meeting in Murmansk. Will this standstill be overcome at long last?
A scrap heap, so typical of the Russian north, stretches from the Apapelgino airport to Pevek. It is littered with rusty boats and barrels that once held diesel oil, skeletons of cars and even the remains of a semi-dismantled Yak-40 aircraft, battered by the southern winds and snowstorms.
The town is buried in a silence that is pierced only by the penetrating cries of seagulls. Its streets are deserted. Stuck in permafrost at the bottom of a hill, the buildings display the black sockets of empty windows. When I was in Pevek in the late 1990s, its population consisted of 12,000 people; now only 4,000 are left. The town's few plants are working at half-capacity. Russia no longer needs the tin that was produced in a land whose praises were once sung by the renowned Russian author Oleg Kuvayev.
The world's northernmost port is also empty. At one time, up to 20 ships gathered at a time in its roadstead. Now as many come to the harbor during the entire navigation season, and that largely owing to gold miners.
Formerly a major transshipment point of the Northern Sea Route, Pevek graphically reflects the disastrous situation that has engulfed the entire unique route from the island of Novaya Zemlya to the Bering Strait. In the past 15 years, the route, encompassing six seas, has sunk into complete decay.
The programs for the development of this enormous area were curtailed with the start of market reforms after the fall of the Soviet Union. Many major plants in the north-east ground to a halt. Timber exports via the Igarka River virtually stopped. The production of non-ferrous metals, which was largely the backbone of the northern economy, took a dive. As a result, cargo transportation by the Northern Sea Route dwindled by four times and became unprofitable. It was eventually reduced to rare coastal journeys to supply the locals with food and other necessities.
Deprived of government support, the once powerful ice-breaking fleet lost its glory. Out of eight nuclear-powered ships, five have passed their service life. The last ship, 50th Anniversary of Victory, which was shown with pride to President Vladimir Putin in May, was built in 1989. In several years, it will be the only one left.
Academician Alexander Granberg, who has taken part in many high-altitude expeditions, said on this score: "The entire infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route, including polar aviation, ice surveying, communications, and meteorological and hydrographic services, is in a state of a crisis caused both by economic factors and the short-sighted policy of the government. If we do not start immediately reviving the Arctic transportation system, voyages on the Northern Sea Route will be led by the Japanese or the Americans."
This scenario is quite plausible. Many countries have staked their claims to this transportation artery. The American Council at the UN University called the Arctic a potential breeding ground for international conflicts.
This is the situation. We knew from school textbooks that the sea lane stretching along the former Soviet coast from the Atlantic to the Pacific and up to the North Pole belongs to us. On all maps, it clearly follows the meridians, making only one curve in the Barents Sea. We have been disputing it with Norway for more than 30 years. It is worth the trouble - by some estimates gas reserves on the disputed shelf are as large as the Shtokman deposit.
Both Russia and Norway are enthusiastically searching for a compromise. Renowned Norwegian scientist Willy Ostreng believes we only have a few more years to settle the issue, that is, before the main hydrocarbon consumers - the United States and China - make it to the Arctic and start dictating their terms.
There are grounds for such apprehensions. The Chinese have opened a research station on Norway's Spitsbergen Island and transferred the Snow Dragon ice- breaker to it from the Antarctic. The United States has also become markedly more active. Just recently, Deputy Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Richard Lugar urged the United States to ratify the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea in order to counterbalance Moscow's claims to polar energy resources.
In the last few years, other countries, some of them not even northern, have been also been eyeing the territories that we have considered ours since times immemorial. Still others have called into doubt the principle of dividing up the Arctic pie, which was cut into five pieces way back in the 1920s. The reason for these claims is obvious - the shelf of the northern seas accounts for up to a quarter of the world's hydrocarbon reserves.
Incidentally, the Convention on the Law of the Sea allows us to put this dispute to rest and expand our 200-mile zone legally, but only if we prove that the underwater Lomonosov and Mendeleyev ridges are direct continuations of Russian land. Five years ago, a special UN commission dismissed Russia's arguments as invalid. Now we will have to carry out a second survey.
These territorial disputes have had a tremendous impact on the importance of the Northern Sea Route, which is quite understandable. The country that dominates this sea lane will dictate its terms to the developers of the shelf deposits and will see the biggest gains from the transportation of raw materials to the Pacific and the Atlantic. These include billions of tons of oil and trillions of cubic meters of gas, not to mention other minerals in which the local lands abound.
It seems that everyone in Russia agrees that it is time to restore the Northern Sea Route and revive the economy of the Extreme North. We will then have both cargoes and vessels to carry them. At the Murmansk meeting, President Putin suggested establishing a national Arctic council to address this issue. This is a good idea, and it could work, unless it gets bogged down in red tape like a bill on the Northern Sea Route submitted to the State Duma in 2000. If this happens again, this sea lane will remain for us just a dotted line on the map.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Maxim Krans) - Debates over the Northern Sea Route, a shipping lane from the Atlantic to the Pacific along the coast of northern Russia, have been going on for many years.
Local residents are sounding the alarm, scientists and journalists are crossing swords, and even MPs are worried about this problem, unable to take a nap in their comfy chairs. Russia's State Council, an advisory body consisting of the country's regional leaders, and the Sea College discussed it again at their May meeting in Murmansk. Will this standstill be overcome at long last?
A scrap heap, so typical of the Russian north, stretches from the Apapelgino airport to Pevek. It is littered with rusty boats and barrels that once held diesel oil, skeletons of cars and even the remains of a semi-dismantled Yak-40 aircraft, battered by the southern winds and snowstorms.
The town is buried in a silence that is pierced only by the penetrating cries of seagulls. Its streets are deserted. Stuck in permafrost at the bottom of a hill, the buildings display the black sockets of empty windows. When I was in Pevek in the late 1990s, its population consisted of 12,000 people; now only 4,000 are left. The town's few plants are working at half-capacity. Russia no longer needs the tin that was produced in a land whose praises were once sung by the renowned Russian author Oleg Kuvayev.
The world's northernmost port is also empty. At one time, up to 20 ships gathered at a time in its roadstead. Now as many come to the harbor during the entire navigation season, and that largely owing to gold miners.
Formerly a major transshipment point of the Northern Sea Route, Pevek graphically reflects the disastrous situation that has engulfed the entire unique route from the island of Novaya Zemlya to the Bering Strait. In the past 15 years, the route, encompassing six seas, has sunk into complete decay.
The programs for the development of this enormous area were curtailed with the start of market reforms after the fall of the Soviet Union. Many major plants in the north-east ground to a halt. Timber exports via the Igarka River virtually stopped. The production of non-ferrous metals, which was largely the backbone of the northern economy, took a dive. As a result, cargo transportation by the Northern Sea Route dwindled by four times and became unprofitable. It was eventually reduced to rare coastal journeys to supply the locals with food and other necessities.
Deprived of government support, the once powerful ice-breaking fleet lost its glory. Out of eight nuclear-powered ships, five have passed their service life. The last ship, 50th Anniversary of Victory, which was shown with pride to President Vladimir Putin in May, was built in 1989. In several years, it will be the only one left.
Academician Alexander Granberg, who has taken part in many high-altitude expeditions, said on this score: "The entire infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route, including polar aviation, ice surveying, communications, and meteorological and hydrographic services, is in a state of a crisis caused both by economic factors and the short-sighted policy of the government. If we do not start immediately reviving the Arctic transportation system, voyages on the Northern Sea Route will be led by the Japanese or the Americans."
This scenario is quite plausible. Many countries have staked their claims to this transportation artery. The American Council at the UN University called the Arctic a potential breeding ground for international conflicts.
This is the situation. We knew from school textbooks that the sea lane stretching along the former Soviet coast from the Atlantic to the Pacific and up to the North Pole belongs to us. On all maps, it clearly follows the meridians, making only one curve in the Barents Sea. We have been disputing it with Norway for more than 30 years. It is worth the trouble - by some estimates gas reserves on the disputed shelf are as large as the Shtokman deposit.
Both Russia and Norway are enthusiastically searching for a compromise. Renowned Norwegian scientist Willy Ostreng believes we only have a few more years to settle the issue, that is, before the main hydrocarbon consumers - the United States and China - make it to the Arctic and start dictating their terms.
There are grounds for such apprehensions. The Chinese have opened a research station on Norway's Spitsbergen Island and transferred the Snow Dragon ice- breaker to it from the Antarctic. The United States has also become markedly more active. Just recently, Deputy Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Richard Lugar urged the United States to ratify the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea in order to counterbalance Moscow's claims to polar energy resources.
In the last few years, other countries, some of them not even northern, have been also been eyeing the territories that we have considered ours since times immemorial. Still others have called into doubt the principle of dividing up the Arctic pie, which was cut into five pieces way back in the 1920s. The reason for these claims is obvious - the shelf of the northern seas accounts for up to a quarter of the world's hydrocarbon reserves.
Incidentally, the Convention on the Law of the Sea allows us to put this dispute to rest and expand our 200-mile zone legally, but only if we prove that the underwater Lomonosov and Mendeleyev ridges are direct continuations of Russian land. Five years ago, a special UN commission dismissed Russia's arguments as invalid. Now we will have to carry out a second survey.
These territorial disputes have had a tremendous impact on the importance of the Northern Sea Route, which is quite understandable. The country that dominates this sea lane will dictate its terms to the developers of the shelf deposits and will see the biggest gains from the transportation of raw materials to the Pacific and the Atlantic. These include billions of tons of oil and trillions of cubic meters of gas, not to mention other minerals in which the local lands abound.
It seems that everyone in Russia agrees that it is time to restore the Northern Sea Route and revive the economy of the Extreme North. We will then have both cargoes and vessels to carry them. At the Murmansk meeting, President Putin suggested establishing a national Arctic council to address this issue. This is a good idea, and it could work, unless it gets bogged down in red tape like a bill on the Northern Sea Route submitted to the State Duma in 2000. If this happens again, this sea lane will remain for us just a dotted line on the map.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
New wars require new weapons
11:39 | 24/ 05/ 2007
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Andrei Kislyakov) - Military dictionaries say that what distinguishes war from peace is the massive use of weapons. But today this interpretation is desperately obsolete.
The goal of a war of the future will not be to seize enemy territory but to deal surgical strikes against sensitive targets.
International borders are not violated, large-scale use of ground troops and armor is becoming a thing of the past, and the role of strategic aviation is diminished. The traditional nuclear triad is being replaced with non-nuclear high-accuracy weapons with different basing modes.
In turn, this implies the presence of numerous satellite-based reconnaissance, warning and targeting systems that themselves require protection. This factor alone makes the development of space weapons inevitable.
This series of articles deals with work on orbital combat systems, modernization of strategic arms and development of entirely new types of weapons.
Space weapons
These are weapons and auxiliary systems designed for deployment and use in space. They consist of different types, principles of action and designations. It is necessary to divide them into active and passive elements. The latter include satellite systems for reconnaissance, communications, and target indication that have been used by many countries for a long time.
The more dangerous type, however, is the active elements, which can be used for anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defense, radio-electronic warfare, orbital bombing of any territory with nuclear and non-nuclear warheads, and anti-satellite weapons.
The main types of space-based assault weapons are:
1. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Their warheads are put into what is called the "staging orbit." In the event of a crisis and a command to destroy targets, the multiple-warhead-dispensing mechanism comes into action. This basing mode was suggested for the American MX ICBM when Soviet-U.S. tensions reached their peak in the early 1980s.
2. Ground-, air- and space-launched anti-satellite missiles.
3. Directed energy weapons, including chemical and X-ray lasers and beams.
4. Electronic weapons: pulse generators of powerful radio waves for radio-electronic warfare and magnetic-field-generated and plasma compression pulses.
The main point is that space-based weapons allow comprehensive control over the Earth's surface. The appearance of permanent manned military stations in near-Earth orbit is only a matter of time.
Nonetheless, such stations will not be developed in the near future, but automatic systems will. They will be equipped with weapons based on new physical principles. Moreover, there is evidence that a system has already been sent into space equipped with missiles and lasers capable of destroying satellites in low, medium and stationary orbits.
The military rivalry in space between the Soviet Union and the United States in the late 1950s took two forms: anti-missile defense and action against a potential enemy's space-based systems.
In the United States, work in both areas saw mixed success but without any obvious conflicts between the people involved, whereas in the Soviet Union it was dominated by good old-fashioned behind-the-scenes clan struggle.
(To be continued)
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Andrei Kislyakov) - Military dictionaries say that what distinguishes war from peace is the massive use of weapons. But today this interpretation is desperately obsolete.
The goal of a war of the future will not be to seize enemy territory but to deal surgical strikes against sensitive targets.
International borders are not violated, large-scale use of ground troops and armor is becoming a thing of the past, and the role of strategic aviation is diminished. The traditional nuclear triad is being replaced with non-nuclear high-accuracy weapons with different basing modes.
In turn, this implies the presence of numerous satellite-based reconnaissance, warning and targeting systems that themselves require protection. This factor alone makes the development of space weapons inevitable.
This series of articles deals with work on orbital combat systems, modernization of strategic arms and development of entirely new types of weapons.
Space weapons
These are weapons and auxiliary systems designed for deployment and use in space. They consist of different types, principles of action and designations. It is necessary to divide them into active and passive elements. The latter include satellite systems for reconnaissance, communications, and target indication that have been used by many countries for a long time.
The more dangerous type, however, is the active elements, which can be used for anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defense, radio-electronic warfare, orbital bombing of any territory with nuclear and non-nuclear warheads, and anti-satellite weapons.
The main types of space-based assault weapons are:
1. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Their warheads are put into what is called the "staging orbit." In the event of a crisis and a command to destroy targets, the multiple-warhead-dispensing mechanism comes into action. This basing mode was suggested for the American MX ICBM when Soviet-U.S. tensions reached their peak in the early 1980s.
2. Ground-, air- and space-launched anti-satellite missiles.
3. Directed energy weapons, including chemical and X-ray lasers and beams.
4. Electronic weapons: pulse generators of powerful radio waves for radio-electronic warfare and magnetic-field-generated and plasma compression pulses.
The main point is that space-based weapons allow comprehensive control over the Earth's surface. The appearance of permanent manned military stations in near-Earth orbit is only a matter of time.
Nonetheless, such stations will not be developed in the near future, but automatic systems will. They will be equipped with weapons based on new physical principles. Moreover, there is evidence that a system has already been sent into space equipped with missiles and lasers capable of destroying satellites in low, medium and stationary orbits.
The military rivalry in space between the Soviet Union and the United States in the late 1950s took two forms: anti-missile defense and action against a potential enemy's space-based systems.
In the United States, work in both areas saw mixed success but without any obvious conflicts between the people involved, whereas in the Soviet Union it was dominated by good old-fashioned behind-the-scenes clan struggle.
(To be continued)
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
Weaponizing Space: Is Current U.S. Policy Protecting Our National Security?
Weaponizing Space: Is Current U.S. Policy Protecting Our National Security?
Overview
Chairman Tierney's Opening Statement
On Wednesday, May 23, at 2:00 p.m. in 2154 of the Rayburn House Office Building, the Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs will hold an oversight hearing to explore the Administration’s military and diplomatic policies toward the use of space. The hearing will examine the 2006 National Space Policy (unclassified version) and the impact of Administration policies on the use of space by other countries, such as the January 2007 anti-satellite test by China.
Statement of
Major General James Armor
Director, National Security Space Office of the Department of Defense
Before the
House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform
Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs
On
”Weaponizing Space: Is Current U.S. Policy Protecting Our National Security”
May 23, 2007
"The United States views purposeful interference with its space systems as an infringement on its rights and will take actions necessary to preserve its rights, capabilities, and freedom of action in space including denying, if necessary, adversaries the use of space capabilities hostile to U.S. national interests," Major General James Armor, director of the National Security Space Office said at a congressional hearings.
On CHINA
"China’s testing of adirect-ascent anti-satellite system and the on-orbit destruction of a satellite resulting in thousands of pieces of long-lived orbital debris, is not responsible behavior for a space-faring nation. This action is not consistent with: China’s stated position on preventing an arms race in outer space; its strong desire for a treaty banning space weapons; and the constructive relationship outlined by President Bush and President Hu, including in the area of civil space cooperation. The contradictions between the China’s statements and its actions raise legitimate questions about the credibility of their declaratory policies, statements, and
security commitments. "
It should be noted that the United States has not conducted a test of a
kinetic energy anti-satellite capability since 1985. The world in 1985 was very
different than it is today, however. The United States and the Soviet Union were
competing in space and other areas, and few countries had space systems. In
2007, however, many other countries are dependent on space systems for research,
exploration, business, and national security. In 1985, international space
cooperation was the exception, but in 2007 it is the norm. China’s anti-satellite
test runs directly counter to these trends.Additionally, China is pursuing a broad-based, comprehensive transformation of its military forces to include space, counter space and
information operations, including a modern intelligence surveillance and
reconnaissance architecture with advanced space-enabled command and control
China is also developing a wide range of anti-access and area denial capabilities including the direct ascent anti-satellite, radio frequency jammers, lasers, supporting space surveillance, and information warfare capabilities. The lack of transparency into China’s defense expenditure, force structure, and overall intentions is most troubling as it could lead to miscalculation of intent and crisis instability.
The rapid maturation of counter space threats, including China’s antisatellite capabilities, will require a broad range of options, from diplomatic to military, to protect our interests in space. In 1985, only a handful of nations were operating in space and, fortunately, many were allies of the United States. Today, however, many nations are becoming space-faring nations. Each such nation by becoming a space faring nation should also adhere to the international outer space legal regime and ensure it is ready to conduct safe space flight operations. The United States has long urged the international community to focus on gaining universal adherence to the current treaty regime. A fielded direct ascent antisatellite capability will pose a significant threat to low-earth orbiting satellites and could have strategic implications in a regional conflict.
The response to threats to our space capabilities must include:
(1) encouragement for all nations to adhere to the principles outlined in current treaties and international agreements for the peaceful use of space;
(2) continued modernization of our space situational awareness capabilities to ensure ample warning for the protection of space assets;
(3) architectural solutions, including Operationally Responsive Space concepts, to ensure that space capabilities are available when needed;
(4) capabilities to deny, if necessary, adversaries the use of space in order to protect our capabilities, ensure our terrestrial forces and keep the U.S. homeland safe.
Testimony of General James B. Armor
Testimony of Ambassador Donald Mahley
Testimony of Dr. Laura Grego
Testimony of Ms. Theresa Hitchens
Testimony of Mr. Jeff Kueter
Testimony of Mr. David Cavossa
Testimony Submitted for the Record by Mr. David McGlade, CEO Intelsat
Testimony Submitted for the Record by Dr. James Clay Moltz, Dep. Director Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies
Testimony Submitted for the Record by Iridium Satellite, LLC
Overview
Chairman Tierney's Opening Statement
On Wednesday, May 23, at 2:00 p.m. in 2154 of the Rayburn House Office Building, the Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs will hold an oversight hearing to explore the Administration’s military and diplomatic policies toward the use of space. The hearing will examine the 2006 National Space Policy (unclassified version) and the impact of Administration policies on the use of space by other countries, such as the January 2007 anti-satellite test by China.
Statement of
Major General James Armor
Director, National Security Space Office of the Department of Defense
Before the
House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform
Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs
On
”Weaponizing Space: Is Current U.S. Policy Protecting Our National Security”
May 23, 2007
"The United States views purposeful interference with its space systems as an infringement on its rights and will take actions necessary to preserve its rights, capabilities, and freedom of action in space including denying, if necessary, adversaries the use of space capabilities hostile to U.S. national interests," Major General James Armor, director of the National Security Space Office said at a congressional hearings.
On CHINA
"China’s testing of adirect-ascent anti-satellite system and the on-orbit destruction of a satellite resulting in thousands of pieces of long-lived orbital debris, is not responsible behavior for a space-faring nation. This action is not consistent with: China’s stated position on preventing an arms race in outer space; its strong desire for a treaty banning space weapons; and the constructive relationship outlined by President Bush and President Hu, including in the area of civil space cooperation. The contradictions between the China’s statements and its actions raise legitimate questions about the credibility of their declaratory policies, statements, and
security commitments. "
It should be noted that the United States has not conducted a test of a
kinetic energy anti-satellite capability since 1985. The world in 1985 was very
different than it is today, however. The United States and the Soviet Union were
competing in space and other areas, and few countries had space systems. In
2007, however, many other countries are dependent on space systems for research,
exploration, business, and national security. In 1985, international space
cooperation was the exception, but in 2007 it is the norm. China’s anti-satellite
test runs directly counter to these trends.Additionally, China is pursuing a broad-based, comprehensive transformation of its military forces to include space, counter space and
information operations, including a modern intelligence surveillance and
reconnaissance architecture with advanced space-enabled command and control
China is also developing a wide range of anti-access and area denial capabilities including the direct ascent anti-satellite, radio frequency jammers, lasers, supporting space surveillance, and information warfare capabilities. The lack of transparency into China’s defense expenditure, force structure, and overall intentions is most troubling as it could lead to miscalculation of intent and crisis instability.
The rapid maturation of counter space threats, including China’s antisatellite capabilities, will require a broad range of options, from diplomatic to military, to protect our interests in space. In 1985, only a handful of nations were operating in space and, fortunately, many were allies of the United States. Today, however, many nations are becoming space-faring nations. Each such nation by becoming a space faring nation should also adhere to the international outer space legal regime and ensure it is ready to conduct safe space flight operations. The United States has long urged the international community to focus on gaining universal adherence to the current treaty regime. A fielded direct ascent antisatellite capability will pose a significant threat to low-earth orbiting satellites and could have strategic implications in a regional conflict.
The response to threats to our space capabilities must include:
(1) encouragement for all nations to adhere to the principles outlined in current treaties and international agreements for the peaceful use of space;
(2) continued modernization of our space situational awareness capabilities to ensure ample warning for the protection of space assets;
(3) architectural solutions, including Operationally Responsive Space concepts, to ensure that space capabilities are available when needed;
(4) capabilities to deny, if necessary, adversaries the use of space in order to protect our capabilities, ensure our terrestrial forces and keep the U.S. homeland safe.
Testimony of General James B. Armor
Testimony of Ambassador Donald Mahley
Testimony of Dr. Laura Grego
Testimony of Ms. Theresa Hitchens
Testimony of Mr. Jeff Kueter
Testimony of Mr. David Cavossa
Testimony Submitted for the Record by Mr. David McGlade, CEO Intelsat
Testimony Submitted for the Record by Dr. James Clay Moltz, Dep. Director Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies
Testimony Submitted for the Record by Iridium Satellite, LLC
States cannot be barred from nuclear technology
Kiriyenko says states cannot be barred from nuclear technology
16:04 | 24/ 05/ 2007
LUXEMBOURG, May 24 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's nuclear chief said Thursday that attempts to deny certain countries access to peaceful nuclear technologies are both immoral and futile.
Russia has consistently supported the right of countries to develop nuclear energy, and has come under criticism from other nuclear powers over its cooperation with Iran, where Russians are building the country's first nuclear power plant.
Sergei Kiriyenko, speaking at an international conference in Luxembourg on preventing nuclear catastrophes, stressed the importance of two unconditional rights: "On the one hand, any country should have access to civilian nuclear energy, and on the other the international community should make sure that security and non-proliferation guarantees are observed."
Trying to stop other countries from developing nuclear power "is becoming impossible, both from a legal and a moral point of view," he said.
At the start of the conference, Kiriyenko read out an address from Russian President Vladimir Putin. The president described the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a cornerstone of international security and stability, and said Moscow had been honoring its disarmament commitments under the treaty.
Putin, who concluded his visit to Vienna earlier Thursday, will attend the Luxembourg conference later in the day.
Kiriyenko also highlighted Russia's decommissioning of its materials for nuclear fission bombs, under its NPT commitments.
The dispute over Iran's nuclear program, which some states believed is geared towards developing nuclear weapons, took a new twist on the weekend when the head of the UN nuclear watchdog publicly admitted that it was too late to force Tehran to fold up its uranium enrichment plans as demanded by the United Nations Security Council, and argued instead for inspection measures to prevent a further expansion of the Iranian nuclear program.
Following his remarks the United States, which has consistently pressed for harsh sanctions against the Islamic Republic, said it would lodge a complaint against ElBaradei, citing concerns that his comments could undermine UN Security Council efforts.
European nations have signaled their backing for Washington's position
16:04 | 24/ 05/ 2007
LUXEMBOURG, May 24 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's nuclear chief said Thursday that attempts to deny certain countries access to peaceful nuclear technologies are both immoral and futile.
Russia has consistently supported the right of countries to develop nuclear energy, and has come under criticism from other nuclear powers over its cooperation with Iran, where Russians are building the country's first nuclear power plant.
Sergei Kiriyenko, speaking at an international conference in Luxembourg on preventing nuclear catastrophes, stressed the importance of two unconditional rights: "On the one hand, any country should have access to civilian nuclear energy, and on the other the international community should make sure that security and non-proliferation guarantees are observed."
Trying to stop other countries from developing nuclear power "is becoming impossible, both from a legal and a moral point of view," he said.
At the start of the conference, Kiriyenko read out an address from Russian President Vladimir Putin. The president described the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a cornerstone of international security and stability, and said Moscow had been honoring its disarmament commitments under the treaty.
Putin, who concluded his visit to Vienna earlier Thursday, will attend the Luxembourg conference later in the day.
Kiriyenko also highlighted Russia's decommissioning of its materials for nuclear fission bombs, under its NPT commitments.
The dispute over Iran's nuclear program, which some states believed is geared towards developing nuclear weapons, took a new twist on the weekend when the head of the UN nuclear watchdog publicly admitted that it was too late to force Tehran to fold up its uranium enrichment plans as demanded by the United Nations Security Council, and argued instead for inspection measures to prevent a further expansion of the Iranian nuclear program.
Following his remarks the United States, which has consistently pressed for harsh sanctions against the Islamic Republic, said it would lodge a complaint against ElBaradei, citing concerns that his comments could undermine UN Security Council efforts.
European nations have signaled their backing for Washington's position