India, Japan in security pact; a new architecture for Asia?
Posted by: Sanjeev Miglani
Source: blogs.reuters.com
While much of the media attention during Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Japan this week was focused on a free trade deal the two sides failed to agree on, another pact that could have even greater consequences for the region was quietly pushed through.
This was a security cooperation agreement under which India and Japan, once on opposite sides of the Cold War, will hold military exercises, police the Indian Ocean and conduct military-to-military exchanges on fighting terrorism.
It doesn’t sound very grand, but its significance lies in the fact that pacifist Japan has such a security pact with only two other countries - the United States and Australia.
And it comes in the same month that India and the United States closed a nuclear cooperation deal that won New Delhi a place on the world’s nuclear high table, ending three decades of isolation following its first nuclear tests in 1974.
And finally if you remember that India, the United States, Japan , Australia and Singapore held naval exercises last year off the Arabian Sea, you begin to see the outlines of a new security architecture for Asia, which according to some has the containment of China written all over it.
Call it what you will - a league of democracies perhaps - but the idea of some of the most powerful navies in Asian seas exercising together points to a dramatic shift of alliances, one that would have raised an eyebrow not just in Beijing and Islamabad, but other regional capitals such as Jakarta and Bangkok.
A January 2008 report by the U.S. Congressional Research Service on the emerging security architecture in Asia involving India, the United States, Japan and Australia refers to the opportunities inherent in such a partnership but also to the limits of it as well as concern among those nations kept out of it. A PDF of the report is available here.
Singh and his Japanese counterpart Taro Aso were at pains to stress their security pact wasn’t aimed at anyone, least of all China. “We regard security cooperation with India as very important … and we do not have any assumption of a third country as a target such as China, Aso said.
Singh was even more direct, saying India’s security and economic cooperation with Japan would not be at the “cost of any third country, least of all China”.
Indeed, there is plenty that binds both countries to China. Trade between India and China, as Singh told his hosts, had grown in the past year by an amount greater than the whole trade with Japan.
And then Japan, the only country to have suffered a nuclear attack, hasn’t yet fully overcome its sense of outrage over the Indian nuclear tests in 1998, which triggered nuclear tests by Pakistan.
An India-Japan nuclear cooperation deal, along the lines agreed with the United States, seems some distance away, given lingering reservations in Japan. Tokyo, as the The Mainichi commented, must continue to urge New Delhi to fully renounce nuclear testing.
So where does this all leave China and “all weather ally” Pakistan ? Should they be worrying about this new concert of democracies on their doorstep or is it just one more element in a fast-changing world that is getting harder to predict?
While parsing the Japanese media and official pronouncements, it would be good to bear in mind the concepts of Tatemae and Honne … that is, the distinction between facade and true feelings. While Japanese officials, diplomats and media may constantly call for India to disarm, that is their Tatemae; a continuation of policy so as not to relinquish the heavy stick of morality, which Japan uses wisely to protect and keep alive its stance against nuclear proliferation, as it is the only actual victim of nuclear attack to date. Its Honne position, the policy it actually would rather follow would be to go nuclear itself, to counter what it believes to be very real threats from China and North Korea. But it does not do so because it would inconvenience many cherished Tatemaes … viz. the Self-Defence force and the pacific image of Japan internationally post WWII. But Japan knows, that the inherent tension between the Tatemaes and the Honnes, will cause it to replace old Tatemaes with new Tatemaes … hence a few Honnes or realistic policy changes will have to be made. And vis a vis China it is doing so, by entering into a new security arrangement with India. It is calling it a co-operation … another Tatemae, when in actuality it is a tacit approval of India’s nuclear and geo-strategic positions. It is also a bait to switch India’s ambivalence to concrete participation in the Arc of Democracies. Like everything, the Japanese like to play diplomacy too … gradually, while savoring each moment with a sip of sake. It is like a game of Go with China.
- RAVI KUMAR-
October 25, 2008
South Asia’s (En)gendered Wars
By Swathi Parashar
As someone who studies gender in politics and international relations, I have been following the recent events in South Asia with great interest and disdain. The reports on communal violence in Orissa, violent politics of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) in Mumbai, the war in Sri Lanka: all of these remind me of prominent feminist scholar, Cynthia’s Enloe’s pertinent question, ‘where are the women?’ Each of these events and the debates around them are gendered, and yet there is no analysis that throws light on the fact that violence in Mumbai, Orissa or even in Sri Lanka is part of the militarised and macho politics of a male centric worldview. All of these events tell us how deeply entrenched the gendered hierarchies and norms are in our socio-political environment. The masculinity of our ‘God loving’ political and religious extremists and terrorists does not make them ‘God fearing’ as they wreak havoc and rape nuns (and when questioned audaciously tell the world ‘she’ consented to the sexual orgy!), in their service to their religion and God. The rage that I have felt, I am sure has been experienced by other women and men too. Which God gave you the permission to rape and kill? Which or whose ‘religion’ were you representing or ‘protecting’? What happened to the social and political contract we (women included) had with the state, that in return for the sovereignty and powers we bestowed on it, we would be protected and our human rights guaranteed?
It bothers me that while we so easily classify wars and terrorism as religious, political and economic, we never think of gender as a category. Women are at the receiving end of the violent masculinist politics of extremist groups. I do not think it necessary to remind the informed readers of this column how rape is often the big weapon in these macho wars of supremacy. Women’s bodies become the territories on which the warring sides play out their ideologies. In South Asia we have see how rape has been a war strategy in communal riots like in Gujarat and Orissa recently, as also in inter-state wars like in 1947 between India and Pakistan and in 1971 between East and West Pakistan. Further, militarised masculine states in the region have made women’s cultural identities the battle turf. The Taliban needed the women to be veiled and excluded from public spaces, while in Colombo the Tamil women must not wear the ‘pottu’ (the red decoration on the forehead) to avoid harassment and humiliation by the agents of the Sinhala chauvinistic state.
The ‘hudood ordinance’ of 1979, in Pakistan, targeted specifically at women, was part of then military ruler Zia-ul-Haq's Islamisation programme. Based on Shariah laws, the ‘hudood ordinance’ ensured that hundreds of women were subjected to rape or even gang rape and were eventually accused of adultery and incarcerated. This, along with honour killings, has been defended as punishment ordained by God. The rape of Bangladeshi women was part of the 1971 war strategy of West Pakistan and was deployed together with ‘effeminising’ the Bengali males. The Bangladeshis were not ‘Muslim’ or ‘man’ enough and their masculinity had to be restored through the rape of their women. The Indian state has been no better than its neighbours in the ‘gendered’ wars it has waged in Kashmir and in the North East, not to forget the rape of Sri Lankan women by the IPKF. The agents of the state enforce the state’s diktat through harassing and raping women. Gujarat and Orissa are recent additions in the states’ ‘gendered’ wars because the perpetrators were aided by the states’ inactivity and apathy. In Orissa, when innocent citizens were being subjected to hooliganism and violence and women being humiliated, the state and the central governments were busy levelling charges at one another and debating the necessity of ‘President’s rule’, to score political points (not withstanding that the President is a woman herself!).
It will also not be appropriate to claim that women have nothing to do with these ‘gendered’ wars and are mere ‘victims’. Women have participated in male orientated violent projects, voluntarily and sometimes through various forms of coercion. From the LTTE’s women cadres to the female Afghan suicide bombers, from the women who have supported the militancy in Kashmir to the women activists of the Shiv Sena, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS); these women have been perpetrators, planners and patrons of violence and compel us to look at the gendered composition of violent conflicts, an otherwise neglected terrain. Even as I write this, news is pouring in about the 38 year old ‘sadhvi’, Pragya Singh Thakur who along with two radical Hindu activists has been arrested by the Maharashtra Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS), for her suspected role in the blasts in Malegaon and Modasa. The Shiv Sena Mahila Aghadi (women’s wing) and the RSS (Durga Vahini) women have consistently dispelled notions of women’s passivity or their agency appropriated by masculine ideologies and have shown how women challenge and displace gender hierarchies in violent nationalisms.
My recent research on the conflict in Kashmir also reveals that Muslim women, like their aggressive Hindu counterparts also contribute to violent militant projects. Women in the Kashmir Valley have led protest marches, aided militants, engaged in gun running, organised funds and carried out ideological propaganda on behalf of the militant groups. They have also invoked traditional feminine reproductive roles in their political pursuits as they shouted slogans (during the peak militancy period of the early 90s) like Pakistan jayenge, do roti khayenge, pet mein mujahid leke aayenge, (we shall go to Pakistan, we shall eat two chapatis, we shall get mujahids or warriors in our wombs!). In Sri Lanka, Muslim, Hindu, Christian and even Buddhist women have realised their agentive moments and fulfilled their political and personal aspirations through violence and terrorism.
The gender blindness of our everyday lives is reflected in our political discourses. Gender is never thought of as a category of analyses, and women, their politics and their concerns are pushed into the backstage. It is disheartening to see how the conscience of the society and polity remains unaffected when men in the name of religion or politics rape and kill women, or when women participate and collude in violent and exclusivist ideologies. The modern day ‘terrorists’ have religious and national identities we are often reminded, but there is no mention of their ‘gendered’ constructions (as men and women with specific roles fulfilling social norms and expectations which are then reflected in different and dangerous world views). Because I like to end with quotes, here is one from Ellen Goodman - “I am woman, hear me roar. It's not always a pretty tune.” When will we begin to hear these pretty and not so pretty tunes?
*Swati Parashar is a PhD Candidate at the Department of Politics and International Relations, Lancaster University, United Kingdom. She can be contacted at swatiparashar@hotmail.com
Reorganizing U.S. Domestic Intelligence
Assessing the Options
By: Gregory F. Treverton
One of the questions in the fight against terrorism is whether the United States needs a dedicated domestic intelligence agency separate from law enforcement, on the model of many comparable democracies. To examine this issue, Congress directed that the Department of Homeland Security perform an independent study on the feasibility of creating a counterterrorism intelligence agency and the department turned to the RAND Corporation for this analysis but asked it specifically not to make a recommendation. This volume lays out the relevant considerations for creating such an agency. It draws on a variety of research methods, including historical and legal analysis; a review of organizational theory; examination of current domestic intelligence efforts, their history, and the public's view of them; examination of the domestic intelligence agencies in six other democracies; and interviews with an expert panel made up of current and former intelligence and law enforcement professionals. The monograph highlights five principal problems that might be seen to afflict current domestic intelligence enterprise; for each, there are several possible solutions, and the creation of a new agency addresses only some of the five problems. The volume discusses how a technique called break-even analysis can be used to evaluate proposals for a new agency in the context of the perceived magnitude of the terrorism threat. It concludes with a discussion of how to address the unanswered questions and lack of information that currently cloud the debate over whether to create a dedicated domestic intelligence agency.
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From Intelligence to Private Security : DC Capital Partners
Source: IntelligenceOnline
After buying a raft of sub-contractors of American intelligence agencies, DC Capital Partners is setting up a new holding company devoted to private security.
The American equity firm DC Capital Partners LLC has, in two quick moves, hired a former head of the CIA’s National Clandestine Service, Jose Rodriguez (IOL 579) and snapped up Multi-Threaded Inc., a small group specializing in unstructured data management. Multi-Threaded has been incorporated into the DC Capital holding company that encompasses all of its intelligence assets, the National Interest Security Company (NISC, see graph below).
At the same time, DC Capital is putting together a new holding company specializing in security, training and logistics. Named Elite Training & Security, LLC, its center-piece will be made up by the Kaseman LLC group. A regular supplier of the State Department and Department of Homeland Security, Kaseman furnishes anti-terrorist services and sees to the construction of secure buildings (embassies), notably in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Indonesia and Colombia. DC Capital is planning other acquisitions in the sector and briefly thought of buying out Triple Canopy (IOL 566).
Thomas Campbell, founder and president of DC Capital, says he is also preparing to invest in the fields of open source intelligence, cyber-security and biometrics. His board is made up essentially of former senior CIA and Pentagon officials, and he can count on a powerful network of retired generals working for the Spectrum Group consultancy, in which he bought a controlling interest last year.
After buying a raft of sub-contractors of American intelligence agencies, DC Capital Partners is setting up a new holding company devoted to private security.
The American equity firm DC Capital Partners LLC has, in two quick moves, hired a former head of the CIA’s National Clandestine Service, Jose Rodriguez (IOL 579) and snapped up Multi-Threaded Inc., a small group specializing in unstructured data management. Multi-Threaded has been incorporated into the DC Capital holding company that encompasses all of its intelligence assets, the National Interest Security Company (NISC, see graph below).
At the same time, DC Capital is putting together a new holding company specializing in security, training and logistics. Named Elite Training & Security, LLC, its center-piece will be made up by the Kaseman LLC group. A regular supplier of the State Department and Department of Homeland Security, Kaseman furnishes anti-terrorist services and sees to the construction of secure buildings (embassies), notably in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Indonesia and Colombia. DC Capital is planning other acquisitions in the sector and briefly thought of buying out Triple Canopy (IOL 566).
Thomas Campbell, founder and president of DC Capital, says he is also preparing to invest in the fields of open source intelligence, cyber-security and biometrics. His board is made up essentially of former senior CIA and Pentagon officials, and he can count on a powerful network of retired generals working for the Spectrum Group consultancy, in which he bought a controlling interest last year.
A Lesson to be Learnt: the Baloch Perspective
http://www.articlesbase.com/politics-articles/a-lesson-to-be-learnt-the-baloch-perspect%20ive-610375.%20html
Author: Juma Baloch
There is no doubt that the world has shrunk and has become a global village and many members of this global community are facing similar problems. Some counties have willingly or unwillingly chosen a path as a solution to their troubles, while others have ignorantly adhered to their policy of denial and are facing turmoil.
Indonesia and Pakistan have many things in common; both the countries have a Muslim majority, both gained their so-called freedom after the Second World War, both have a history of occupying other nation's territory, both the countries have been ruled for most of the time by military dictators and both the countries' natural resources have been utilised for the benefit of the dominant ruling nation.
Because of these similarities some Baloch intellectuals are trying to give an impression that the Baloch nation is willing to solve their dissatisfaction with Islamabad on the line of peace agreement between the government of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM)/ Aceh Sumatra National Liberation Front (ASNLF), mediated by the former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari. Under the agreement, Aceh would receive special autonomy and government troops would be withdrawn from the province in exchange for ASNLF's disarmament.
When we, the Baloch look at the history of Indonesia, we need to ask ourselves; with whom does our heart beat? With whom do our aspirations flow? With whom our history has similarities? Before we jump to any conclusion or suggest any solution to the Baloch question, we should acknowledge the public opinion of our nation. We should know the dreams of our elders, aspirations of our youth and hopes of our children. We should know the objective condition that surrounds us and the strategic importance of our land in the global war for energy.
Baloch nation has gone through a lot since March 23, 1948, when the Pakistan army moved in and occupied Kalat, the capital of the free Balochistan. After experiencing only 227 days of freedom in which we elected our representative assembly and wrote a constitution as a free nation of this global village. Pakistan's army trampled every thing under their boots - Baloch nation's pride, freedom, representative assembly, constitution and mostly our mother land and declared it a part of Pakistan. Similarly in 1975 East Timor lost its freedom after being free for nine days from Portugal. The puppet regime installed by Indonesia in East Timor, after its invasion, endorsed the integration of East Timor into Indonesia. Thus, on July 17, 1976, East Timor officially became the 27th province of the Republic of Indonesia.
Similarity between East Timor and Balochistan does not stop there, during the time of their decolonization; cold war became a hurdle for both to become a free nation. Washington expressed its concern over East Timor, because Indonesia was an ally in its war in Vietnam and it did not want to see the vast archipelago destabilized by a left-wing regime in its midst. Gough Whitlam, Australia's Labor Prime Minister told Suharto that an independent Portuguese Timor would be an unviable state, and a potential threat to the stability of the region, and he considered integration with Indonesia to be in Portuguese Timor's best interests. In Balochistan's case a memorandum dated 12 September, 1947 was sent by the British Minster of the state for the commonwealth relations to the United Kingdom High Commissioner in Karachi in which he was asked to do what he could to guide the Pakistan government away from making any agreement with Kalat which would involve recognition of the state as a separate international entity.
The solution to Baloch national question can not be found confined to the administrative boundaries defined by Pakistan. Baloch nation historically never accepted the Goldsmith Line (1871) nor has it ever recognized the Durand Line (1893), commissioned by the British Raj to stop the Russian influence in the region. These artificial boundaries may have divided the Baloch into separate states but could not stop them from considering themselves a single nation. Today nobody can deny the strategic location of the Baloch land for peace and economic stability in the region. Robert G. Wirsing, in his article "Baloch Nationalism and the Geopolitics of Energy Resources", wrote, "A sizable hint of energy's gathering importance to the conflict in Balochstan was, of course, already apparent decades ago in the pages of Harrison's book." If it were not for the strategic location of Baluchistan and the rich potential of oil, uranium, and other resources," Harrison observed, "it would be difficult to imagine anyone fighting over this bleak, desolate, and forbidding land." Shrinking of the energy resources is the main factor in the instability of the world economy today, and because of it, wars were waged to secure them. The vast amounts of untapped fossil fuel reserves in Central Asia need to be channeled into the world market to stabilize its demand. All the projects to channel Central Asian fuel to the Arabian Sea or the IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline to India and China run through Balochistan. Unless there is peace in Balochistan these projects will remain on paper. Even Pakistani writers like Shaukat Qadir in his article, "Strategic significance of Balochistan", accept the importance of Balochistan's strategic location. He wrote, "Analysts have frequently adverted to Pakistan's ‘strategic location'; linking the Middle East via Iran, Central Asia, China, and South Asia. While Balochistan provides the only direct link to Iran and onwards to the Middle East, the truth is that without Balochistan, the remaining linkages that Pakistan provides to other regions are reduced to less than half their strategic value, since the only other port at Karachi could never handle the magnitude of the potential commerce".
When the riches and the strategic importance of this land were not known to the world. when it was only a "bleak, desolate, and forbidding land" the Baloch nation called it its home. As a free nation it resisted domination and occupation by the Afghans, Persians, British and Pakistan. The last one hundred year history of Balochistan shows that it lost its freedom and was occupied by foreign powers but these foreigners never ruled Balochistan peacefully. Baloch politics has always been dominated by rebellions. Intermittently there were times when the Baloch elders tried to negotiate peace with the occupiers but it always left a bitter taste and a deep scar in the collective memory of the Baloch nation. Khan Kalat Mir Mehrab Khan's peace treaty with the British resulted in the martyrdom of Mir Mehrab Khan and the occupation of Kalat. The outcome of Mir Dost Mohammed Baranzai's peace negotiation with Reza Shah Pehlavi was the hanging of the Baloch leader and the occupation of western Makuran by Iran. The outcome of Prince Karim's acceptance for talks with Pakistan was a brutal crushing of the movement and long prison sentences for the Baloch leadership. Peace, even in the name of the Holy Quran could not change the fate of Nawab Nouroze Khan and his sons. Negotiations with General Ayub Khan resulted in incarceration and hanging of the Baloch leaders in Hyderabad and Sukker jails. Signing the 1973 Constitution of Pakistan by Mir Ghous Bux Bezinjo and Sardar Attaullah Mengal did not stop the ban on NAP and the dissolution of Balochistan Government followed by the military operation and the long term sentences in Hyderabad Conspiracy Case.
The people of East Timor fought against the occupation by Indonesia for 24 years. There were times when many of the Timorese thought that it was a lost cause, but Xanana Gusmão's Revolutionary Front of Independent East Timor (FRETILIN) never surrendered its demand for freedom. FRETILIN resisted the invading Indonesian army, suffering heavy losses at times; they retreated to the mountains to keep the struggle alive. The East Timor Diaspora, scattered around the world initiated a solidarity movement for East Timor which initially faced lots of problems but ultimately they won the international opinion in favour of East Timor. During the historical struggle for freedom there were times when FRETILIN was very weak but it did not surrender its demand for East Timor's freedom. FRETILIN never participated in any elections held under the supervision of the occupier; it never accepted Indonesia's occupation over East Timor. Both, the struggle inside East Timor by FRETILIN and outside the country by Solidarity Movement for East Timor brought the Indonesian government to its knees. Indonesia had no other choice but to accept United Nation mediation. On 30th August 1999 referendum was held under the supervisor of UN for East Timor self-determination. Defying threats and intimidation by Indonesia's army and its East Timor puppet pro-Indonesia militias, the majority of East Timorese voted for freedom. On 20th May 2002 East Timor became an independent nation on the world map.
History shows that Baloch nation's struggle for self-rule swung in different extremes during the course of its history from provincial autonomy to independence. Lacking political unity, wisdom and a clear vision persistent with the genuine aspirations of our people, the leadership confused long term objectives with short term gains and the nation suffered as a consequence. This is the fifth time that the Baloch nation has picked up arms to stop the military aggression of Pakistan, started 60 years ago, which clearly indicates that all other means have failed to make the rulers of Pakistan understand the realities of the Baloch nation. The recent revolt that started in 2004 at Dera Bugti and Kohlu has now spread all over Balochistan as a widely popular movement in the Baloch masses. Geopolitical changes in the region, modern communication network and a stark awareness of the fact that the Baloch as a nation faces the risk of being annihilated from the face of the earth. No wonder this new phase of struggle in Balochistan is popularly called the ‘Last War'.
Since the coming in power of the new so-called democratic forces in Islamabad, hopes for peaceful resolution to the Baloch conflict are being echoed from different quarters of the Baloch leadership. It should be clear to the Baloch masses and its leadership that these new so-called democratic forces are hand picked corrupt political managers of the old establishment which started the aggression on Balochistan sixty year ago. Within six months the new government installed in Islamabad had shown its ethical bankruptcy. President Asif Ali Zardari, leader of this new regime backtracked on his written agreement with his coalition partners saying, "Written political agreements are not binding like the Koran". Those Baloch leaders who think these new unprincipled corrupt political managers in Islamabad are sincere in solving the Baloch question are either politically naive or as devious as the new mouth organs of the old establishment, in either case they are damaging the Baloch national movement.
This is the final call for the Baloch leaders who claim to be nationalists. It's about time that they should get their act together and chalk out a clear cut program as per the desire of the nation. We should learn from the history of East Timor never to surrender our demand for freedom and keep the struggle live at any cost. Until and unless the forces against our freedom are brought to their knees, they will not accept our demand. It's not just the question of the Pakistani army top brass and its handpicked politicians, even the Pakistani intelligentsia is not yet ready to treat us the way Indonesia is treating Ache people. Daily Times editorial dated, 6th August 2008, commenting on Sanaullah Baloch's article, A lesson to be learnt, wrote, "One can say that Pakistan is in disarray today but it has not reached the state of Indonesian collapse in 1999."And it continues, "It would be extremely perverse to tell Mr Baloch that he may have to wait till the state of Pakistan collapses as completely as Indonesia did in 1999 before Balochistan becomes another Aceh." Then it concludes, "Most Pakistanis are favourably inclined to grant a lot more autonomy to the provinces than is now granted in the Constitution." It is clear that they are now willing to give us some sort of autonomy within the framework of the interests of the dominant nation and save the army from complete embarrassment, but not the status of Aceh, let alone complete freedom. It is now up to our leadership what they want? Accept their perverse autonomy or fight for a special autonomy like Aceh. In both the conditions, after all these sacrifices, we will leave our nation at the mercy of Pakistan's corrupt and brutal rulers who in the past never kept their promises or else go for complete independence and gift our nation the freedom to choose their own destiny.
Author: Juma Baloch
There is no doubt that the world has shrunk and has become a global village and many members of this global community are facing similar problems. Some counties have willingly or unwillingly chosen a path as a solution to their troubles, while others have ignorantly adhered to their policy of denial and are facing turmoil.
Indonesia and Pakistan have many things in common; both the countries have a Muslim majority, both gained their so-called freedom after the Second World War, both have a history of occupying other nation's territory, both the countries have been ruled for most of the time by military dictators and both the countries' natural resources have been utilised for the benefit of the dominant ruling nation.
Because of these similarities some Baloch intellectuals are trying to give an impression that the Baloch nation is willing to solve their dissatisfaction with Islamabad on the line of peace agreement between the government of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM)/ Aceh Sumatra National Liberation Front (ASNLF), mediated by the former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari. Under the agreement, Aceh would receive special autonomy and government troops would be withdrawn from the province in exchange for ASNLF's disarmament.
When we, the Baloch look at the history of Indonesia, we need to ask ourselves; with whom does our heart beat? With whom do our aspirations flow? With whom our history has similarities? Before we jump to any conclusion or suggest any solution to the Baloch question, we should acknowledge the public opinion of our nation. We should know the dreams of our elders, aspirations of our youth and hopes of our children. We should know the objective condition that surrounds us and the strategic importance of our land in the global war for energy.
Baloch nation has gone through a lot since March 23, 1948, when the Pakistan army moved in and occupied Kalat, the capital of the free Balochistan. After experiencing only 227 days of freedom in which we elected our representative assembly and wrote a constitution as a free nation of this global village. Pakistan's army trampled every thing under their boots - Baloch nation's pride, freedom, representative assembly, constitution and mostly our mother land and declared it a part of Pakistan. Similarly in 1975 East Timor lost its freedom after being free for nine days from Portugal. The puppet regime installed by Indonesia in East Timor, after its invasion, endorsed the integration of East Timor into Indonesia. Thus, on July 17, 1976, East Timor officially became the 27th province of the Republic of Indonesia.
Similarity between East Timor and Balochistan does not stop there, during the time of their decolonization; cold war became a hurdle for both to become a free nation. Washington expressed its concern over East Timor, because Indonesia was an ally in its war in Vietnam and it did not want to see the vast archipelago destabilized by a left-wing regime in its midst. Gough Whitlam, Australia's Labor Prime Minister told Suharto that an independent Portuguese Timor would be an unviable state, and a potential threat to the stability of the region, and he considered integration with Indonesia to be in Portuguese Timor's best interests. In Balochistan's case a memorandum dated 12 September, 1947 was sent by the British Minster of the state for the commonwealth relations to the United Kingdom High Commissioner in Karachi in which he was asked to do what he could to guide the Pakistan government away from making any agreement with Kalat which would involve recognition of the state as a separate international entity.
The solution to Baloch national question can not be found confined to the administrative boundaries defined by Pakistan. Baloch nation historically never accepted the Goldsmith Line (1871) nor has it ever recognized the Durand Line (1893), commissioned by the British Raj to stop the Russian influence in the region. These artificial boundaries may have divided the Baloch into separate states but could not stop them from considering themselves a single nation. Today nobody can deny the strategic location of the Baloch land for peace and economic stability in the region. Robert G. Wirsing, in his article "Baloch Nationalism and the Geopolitics of Energy Resources", wrote, "A sizable hint of energy's gathering importance to the conflict in Balochstan was, of course, already apparent decades ago in the pages of Harrison's book." If it were not for the strategic location of Baluchistan and the rich potential of oil, uranium, and other resources," Harrison observed, "it would be difficult to imagine anyone fighting over this bleak, desolate, and forbidding land." Shrinking of the energy resources is the main factor in the instability of the world economy today, and because of it, wars were waged to secure them. The vast amounts of untapped fossil fuel reserves in Central Asia need to be channeled into the world market to stabilize its demand. All the projects to channel Central Asian fuel to the Arabian Sea or the IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline to India and China run through Balochistan. Unless there is peace in Balochistan these projects will remain on paper. Even Pakistani writers like Shaukat Qadir in his article, "Strategic significance of Balochistan", accept the importance of Balochistan's strategic location. He wrote, "Analysts have frequently adverted to Pakistan's ‘strategic location'; linking the Middle East via Iran, Central Asia, China, and South Asia. While Balochistan provides the only direct link to Iran and onwards to the Middle East, the truth is that without Balochistan, the remaining linkages that Pakistan provides to other regions are reduced to less than half their strategic value, since the only other port at Karachi could never handle the magnitude of the potential commerce".
When the riches and the strategic importance of this land were not known to the world. when it was only a "bleak, desolate, and forbidding land" the Baloch nation called it its home. As a free nation it resisted domination and occupation by the Afghans, Persians, British and Pakistan. The last one hundred year history of Balochistan shows that it lost its freedom and was occupied by foreign powers but these foreigners never ruled Balochistan peacefully. Baloch politics has always been dominated by rebellions. Intermittently there were times when the Baloch elders tried to negotiate peace with the occupiers but it always left a bitter taste and a deep scar in the collective memory of the Baloch nation. Khan Kalat Mir Mehrab Khan's peace treaty with the British resulted in the martyrdom of Mir Mehrab Khan and the occupation of Kalat. The outcome of Mir Dost Mohammed Baranzai's peace negotiation with Reza Shah Pehlavi was the hanging of the Baloch leader and the occupation of western Makuran by Iran. The outcome of Prince Karim's acceptance for talks with Pakistan was a brutal crushing of the movement and long prison sentences for the Baloch leadership. Peace, even in the name of the Holy Quran could not change the fate of Nawab Nouroze Khan and his sons. Negotiations with General Ayub Khan resulted in incarceration and hanging of the Baloch leaders in Hyderabad and Sukker jails. Signing the 1973 Constitution of Pakistan by Mir Ghous Bux Bezinjo and Sardar Attaullah Mengal did not stop the ban on NAP and the dissolution of Balochistan Government followed by the military operation and the long term sentences in Hyderabad Conspiracy Case.
The people of East Timor fought against the occupation by Indonesia for 24 years. There were times when many of the Timorese thought that it was a lost cause, but Xanana Gusmão's Revolutionary Front of Independent East Timor (FRETILIN) never surrendered its demand for freedom. FRETILIN resisted the invading Indonesian army, suffering heavy losses at times; they retreated to the mountains to keep the struggle alive. The East Timor Diaspora, scattered around the world initiated a solidarity movement for East Timor which initially faced lots of problems but ultimately they won the international opinion in favour of East Timor. During the historical struggle for freedom there were times when FRETILIN was very weak but it did not surrender its demand for East Timor's freedom. FRETILIN never participated in any elections held under the supervision of the occupier; it never accepted Indonesia's occupation over East Timor. Both, the struggle inside East Timor by FRETILIN and outside the country by Solidarity Movement for East Timor brought the Indonesian government to its knees. Indonesia had no other choice but to accept United Nation mediation. On 30th August 1999 referendum was held under the supervisor of UN for East Timor self-determination. Defying threats and intimidation by Indonesia's army and its East Timor puppet pro-Indonesia militias, the majority of East Timorese voted for freedom. On 20th May 2002 East Timor became an independent nation on the world map.
History shows that Baloch nation's struggle for self-rule swung in different extremes during the course of its history from provincial autonomy to independence. Lacking political unity, wisdom and a clear vision persistent with the genuine aspirations of our people, the leadership confused long term objectives with short term gains and the nation suffered as a consequence. This is the fifth time that the Baloch nation has picked up arms to stop the military aggression of Pakistan, started 60 years ago, which clearly indicates that all other means have failed to make the rulers of Pakistan understand the realities of the Baloch nation. The recent revolt that started in 2004 at Dera Bugti and Kohlu has now spread all over Balochistan as a widely popular movement in the Baloch masses. Geopolitical changes in the region, modern communication network and a stark awareness of the fact that the Baloch as a nation faces the risk of being annihilated from the face of the earth. No wonder this new phase of struggle in Balochistan is popularly called the ‘Last War'.
Since the coming in power of the new so-called democratic forces in Islamabad, hopes for peaceful resolution to the Baloch conflict are being echoed from different quarters of the Baloch leadership. It should be clear to the Baloch masses and its leadership that these new so-called democratic forces are hand picked corrupt political managers of the old establishment which started the aggression on Balochistan sixty year ago. Within six months the new government installed in Islamabad had shown its ethical bankruptcy. President Asif Ali Zardari, leader of this new regime backtracked on his written agreement with his coalition partners saying, "Written political agreements are not binding like the Koran". Those Baloch leaders who think these new unprincipled corrupt political managers in Islamabad are sincere in solving the Baloch question are either politically naive or as devious as the new mouth organs of the old establishment, in either case they are damaging the Baloch national movement.
This is the final call for the Baloch leaders who claim to be nationalists. It's about time that they should get their act together and chalk out a clear cut program as per the desire of the nation. We should learn from the history of East Timor never to surrender our demand for freedom and keep the struggle live at any cost. Until and unless the forces against our freedom are brought to their knees, they will not accept our demand. It's not just the question of the Pakistani army top brass and its handpicked politicians, even the Pakistani intelligentsia is not yet ready to treat us the way Indonesia is treating Ache people. Daily Times editorial dated, 6th August 2008, commenting on Sanaullah Baloch's article, A lesson to be learnt, wrote, "One can say that Pakistan is in disarray today but it has not reached the state of Indonesian collapse in 1999."And it continues, "It would be extremely perverse to tell Mr Baloch that he may have to wait till the state of Pakistan collapses as completely as Indonesia did in 1999 before Balochistan becomes another Aceh." Then it concludes, "Most Pakistanis are favourably inclined to grant a lot more autonomy to the provinces than is now granted in the Constitution." It is clear that they are now willing to give us some sort of autonomy within the framework of the interests of the dominant nation and save the army from complete embarrassment, but not the status of Aceh, let alone complete freedom. It is now up to our leadership what they want? Accept their perverse autonomy or fight for a special autonomy like Aceh. In both the conditions, after all these sacrifices, we will leave our nation at the mercy of Pakistan's corrupt and brutal rulers who in the past never kept their promises or else go for complete independence and gift our nation the freedom to choose their own destiny.
October 24, 2008
CHINESE ECONOMY MONITOR---NOTE 2
B.RAMAN
( What will be the impact of the global financial and economic melt-down on the Chinese economy? This question should be of interest to the
other countries of the South and the South-East Asian region. If the Chinese economy is badly affected, they too are likely to feel the
negative consequences of the down-turn in the Chinese economy. Keeping this in view, we have been brInging out a periodic "Chinese Economy Monitor" based on open information. This is the second in the series---B.Raman)
INCREASED UNCERTAINTIES, SAYS HU
At the start of the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) Summit in Beijing on October 24,2008, President Hu Jintao of China said: "The fundamentals of the Chinese economy have not changed. However, the global financial crisis has noticeably increased the uncertainties and factors for instability in China's economic development.We are now confronted with many difficulties and challenges in our economic endeavours.China must first and foremost run its own affairs well. In the light of the changing domestic and international financial situation, we will make our macroeconomic regulatory measures more proactive, focused and effective and make timely adjustments to our policies.We will vigorously expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand, maintain economic financial stability and the stability of capital markets, and continue to promote sound and fast economic and social development."
2.President Hu was reported to have told his Indonesian counterpart during a bilateral meeting on October 23,2008, that the current financial turmoil was "grim.," "The current world economic situation is grim and complicated.The emerging markets and developing countries are confronted with financial risks, weak foreign demand and mounting inflation," Hu was quoted as saying.
---Source AFP
EMERGENCY FUND OF ASEAN PLUS THREE
3.South Korea, China, Japan and the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), agreed in the margins of the ASEM summit on October 24,2008,to create a US$80-billion fund to fight the global economic crisis.The agreement is the first major coordinated regional action since the financial turmoil reached full force last month. In announcing the new Asian monetary fund, a spokesman for South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak said the 13 leaders had pledged to work even more closely on economic matters. "(They) agreed on the need to strengthen regional cooperation and policy coordination in the face of the global financial crisis," the spokesman said in a statement. The US$80-billion fund would be created by the end of June next year, and be accompanied by an independent regional financial market surveillance organisation, according to the spokesman. The "ASEAN Plus Three" fund would supersede the Chiang Mai Initiative, which came into being in 2000 in the wake of the 1997/98 East Asian financial crisis to ease mainly bilateral currency swaps. Asian governments had till now mostly limited their intervention to cutting interest rates, guaranteeing bank deposits and injecting money into the credit markets - without the kind of coordinated action taken by Europe. The initial agreement called for South Korea, Japan and China to provide 80 per cent or US$64 billion, with ASEAN members providing the remaining US$16 billion.
-----Source AFP
APPREHENDED JOB LOSSES IN SOUTHERN CHINA---2.7 MILLION BY JANUARY
4.At least 2.7 million factory workers in southern China could lose their jobs as the global economic crisis hits the demand for electronics, toys and clothes, according to industry estimates. Nine thousand of the 45,000 factories in the cities of Guangzhou, Dongguan, and Shenzhen are expected to close before the Chinese New Year in late January, the Dongguan City Association of Enterprises with Foreign Investment estimates. By then, the association expects overseas demand for products from the three manufacturing hubs to have shrunk by 30 per cent, as the knock-on effects of the US housing market collapse and credit crunch filter down to Chinese workers. "I am afraid it is not going to look good on the Chinese government if the decline of the export-led industries and the unemployment problem continue to worsen," Eddie Leung, the association's President told AFP. Leung, also a member of the Chinese Manufacturers' Association, said the estimate of 2.7 million job losses was conservative, given that many of the larger factories in Guangdong province employ thousands of workers. Clement Chan, Chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, said a quarter of the 70,000 Hong Kong-owned companies in southern China, 17,500 businesses, could go to the wall by the end of January. Describing the likelihood as a "worst case scenario," he said Hong Kong firms in the region employed a total of 10 million workers, but did not want to speculate on the extent of possible job losses. While small and medium-sized factories are especially prone, the threat of lay offs looms just as large over the region's manufacturing giants, further squeezed by the appreciation of the yuan. Harry To's Mansfield Manufacturing is a classic example of the spectacular growth in China's industrial heartland over the last three decades. To started a metal business from a small room in Hong Kong in 1975. In 1991, he joined hundreds of other Hong Kong entrepreneurs moving their production across the border into China to take advantage of cheap labour and land. He now employs 8,500 workers in 11 factories in China and Europe. His six factories in Dongguan cover 140,000 square metres.
To's company, which is now a subsidiary of Singapore-listed InnoTek Ltd. supplies metal components for cars, plasma televisions, printers and other electrical appliances to Japanese brands including Canon, Toshiba, Epson, Minolta and Fuji-Xerox. Business for the company, among the largest in its field in China, has grown by 40 per cent annually in recent years, but with credit being harder to come by, no manufacturer is safe, he said. "With banks being so tight on their lending policies now, bringing down a factory overnight has now become very easy." All his expansion plans have had to be put on hold. "Some of our long-time Japanese and European clients have asked us to stop producing for them in the next two to three weeks," he said. "They said they did not want to have too much stock piled up in their warehouse as demand continues to dwindle." To recently started building a new 70,000 square metre factory in Dongguan and was planning to hire 2,000 more workers later this year. But now, all work on the unfinished factory has stopped until more orders roll in. "No one would expand their business when the prospects for the entire manufacturing industry look so grim," he said. Instead of hiring more workers, To is looking at cutting 1,000 employees across his operations. But far from being downhearted, he is shifting part of the company's export-led production to developing energy-saving electrical appliances for the domestic market, which he sees as weathering the current financial turmoil. "In the long run, I am confident that mainland Chinese consumers' purchasing power will keep rising as their Western counterparts continue to lose out."
----Source AFP
TEXTILE EXPORTS DOWN
5.According to the National Development and Reform Commission, the export delivery value of the Chinese textile industry totaled 435.2 billion yuan ($63.56 billion) in the first seven months of this year, up 7.9 per cent year-on-year, but the growth rate was eight percentage points lower than the previous year. Industry experts attributed the decline to the appreciation of the yuan and the weakening demand of major consumption countries.Garment exports to the United States, one of the major importers of Chinese garments, increased by only six per cent in June. The downtrend of Chinese textile exports is expected to last in the short run. Whether it recovers or not would depend on the trend of the appreciation of the yuan and the US consumption demand. The Ministry of Finance has increased tax rebate rates on some textile and clothing exports from 11 per cent to 13 per cent from August 1.
----- Shanghai Security News as quoted in the China Daily News
REAL EASTATE: EMERGENCY MEASURES TO PRE-EMPT POSSIBLE CRASH
6.The Chinese Government has intervened vigorously in the real estate market to prevent a possible collapse. Real estate contributes to 10 per cent of China's GDP. According to Frank Gong, the analyst of JP Morgan, China's aggressive moves to boost its ailing real estate market provide a glimpse of its unrivalled position in coping with the global financial turmoi.The Government announced measures to head off a property market crash late October 22,2008, after figures released this week showed third quarter domestic product growth slowed to nine per cent, the lowest since mid-2003. "This is big news and the actions came sooner than expected probably because the third-quarter growth was worse than expected and the slowdown has proven sharper than the Government expected," Frank Gong said. With high liquidity, 1.9 trillion-dollar foreign exchange reserves and a stable currency, China has the most flexibility in the world to fend off the impact of the global financial crisis, Gong wrote in a research note. Propping up the property market, which accounts for 10 per cent of China's gross domestic product, was crucial, analysts agreed. "The direction of the residential property market will determine the direction of the Chinese economy over the next 18 months," according to Credit Suisse analyst Dong Tao."The new measures reflect the rising anxiety about growth risks," Dong said. Those measures include lifting the stamp tax on property purchases and value-added tax of land on property sales as of November, the finance ministry said. The People's Bank of China said minimum deposits and mortgage rates for first-time home buyers would be slashed starting next week. The "unambiguous all-out support from both central and local level" Governments was surprising in "both timing and magnitude", Nicole Wong, a Hong Kong-based property analyst with CLSA Research, said. This week's economic data provided the most powerful indication yet that even China's so-far invincible economy was not insulated from the global downturn, especially as fears of recession grow in the United States and Europe – key markets for Chinese manufactured goods. Since the figures were released, China has wasted no time in responding to protect housing and exports, key components of its economy that appeared vulnerable. The property policy decision was announced a day after Beijing said it would increase export tariff rebates on more than 3,000 items, or a quarter of taxable goods, to shore up its exports.
---Source AFP
SUPERVISION OVER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS TIGHTENED FOLLOWING FEARS OF POSSIBLE HUGE LOSSES
7.Beijing is tightening supervision over Chinese financial companies by requiring monthly reports on their foreign currency exposure to ensure stability amid the global turmoil.. The new rules, which take effect this month, apply to both domestic and overseas branches of Chinese financial institutions.The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will require reports on foreign exchange assets and liabilities from institutions including banks, insurers, brokerages and fund management firms as well as the national pension fund and the sovereign wealth fund.Some Chinese financial institutions are feared to have incurred "huge losses" in their foreign exchange assets amid the global credit crisis.
---- Shanghai Security News
FEARS FOR THE FUTURE
8.My comments: The Chinese economy is not yet as vulnerable as the Indian economy. The increased vulnerability of the Indian economy is due to the large flow of foreign money into the stock markets, which are now being withdrawn. The dramatic collapse of the stock market and the sensational publicity which it receives in the media have a greater psychological impact on public mood.The Chinese exposure to the vagaries of investors in the stock markets is much less as compared to India. The predominance of investment flows into the manufacturing industries in China and not into the stock markets gives its economy a larger safety net than in the case of India. However, an advantage in the case of India is that the Indian manufacturing industries had paid more attention to the domestic market than the Chinese manufacturing industries, which have been flourishing largely on exports to the US and Europe. The decline in export orders could prove more damaging to the Chinese economy than to the Indian economy because of the failure of the Chinese industries to develop the domestic market. Industries largely dependent on domestic demand are generally more stable in times of crisis than industries which become over-dependent on the foreign markets. This is the lesson, which the Chinese are learning the hard way. Unfortunately, the Indian IT companies and other businesses in the services sector have developed a large dependence on Western orders. They could suffer more than their Chinese counterparts as orders from Western financial and other business houses for IT services shrink.In India, the GDP growth rate was steady,but not spectacular. In China, it was spectauclar for years continuously at more than 10 per cent per annum. As the GDP growth rate and the export growth rate come down to single digits in China, the extra labour employed all these years to sustain the double digit growth rate will become redundant adding to the number of jobless. Reports from different sources in Guangdong and Fujian indicate that as a result of the downturn, many Hong Kong and Taiwanese--run businesses have not paid the salaries of their workers for about three months and that they may not be able to settle their back wages while retrenching them. This could cause social instability. The crisis has come at a time when China is confronted with the task of finding alternate jobs for thousands of workers who were brought into Beijing for work connected with the Olympics in the construction and the hotel sectors. They are now without jobs, with no prospect of getting one in the near future. (24-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
( What will be the impact of the global financial and economic melt-down on the Chinese economy? This question should be of interest to the
other countries of the South and the South-East Asian region. If the Chinese economy is badly affected, they too are likely to feel the
negative consequences of the down-turn in the Chinese economy. Keeping this in view, we have been brInging out a periodic "Chinese Economy Monitor" based on open information. This is the second in the series---B.Raman)
INCREASED UNCERTAINTIES, SAYS HU
At the start of the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) Summit in Beijing on October 24,2008, President Hu Jintao of China said: "The fundamentals of the Chinese economy have not changed. However, the global financial crisis has noticeably increased the uncertainties and factors for instability in China's economic development.We are now confronted with many difficulties and challenges in our economic endeavours.China must first and foremost run its own affairs well. In the light of the changing domestic and international financial situation, we will make our macroeconomic regulatory measures more proactive, focused and effective and make timely adjustments to our policies.We will vigorously expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand, maintain economic financial stability and the stability of capital markets, and continue to promote sound and fast economic and social development."
2.President Hu was reported to have told his Indonesian counterpart during a bilateral meeting on October 23,2008, that the current financial turmoil was "grim.," "The current world economic situation is grim and complicated.The emerging markets and developing countries are confronted with financial risks, weak foreign demand and mounting inflation," Hu was quoted as saying.
---Source AFP
EMERGENCY FUND OF ASEAN PLUS THREE
3.South Korea, China, Japan and the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), agreed in the margins of the ASEM summit on October 24,2008,to create a US$80-billion fund to fight the global economic crisis.The agreement is the first major coordinated regional action since the financial turmoil reached full force last month. In announcing the new Asian monetary fund, a spokesman for South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak said the 13 leaders had pledged to work even more closely on economic matters. "(They) agreed on the need to strengthen regional cooperation and policy coordination in the face of the global financial crisis," the spokesman said in a statement. The US$80-billion fund would be created by the end of June next year, and be accompanied by an independent regional financial market surveillance organisation, according to the spokesman. The "ASEAN Plus Three" fund would supersede the Chiang Mai Initiative, which came into being in 2000 in the wake of the 1997/98 East Asian financial crisis to ease mainly bilateral currency swaps. Asian governments had till now mostly limited their intervention to cutting interest rates, guaranteeing bank deposits and injecting money into the credit markets - without the kind of coordinated action taken by Europe. The initial agreement called for South Korea, Japan and China to provide 80 per cent or US$64 billion, with ASEAN members providing the remaining US$16 billion.
-----Source AFP
APPREHENDED JOB LOSSES IN SOUTHERN CHINA---2.7 MILLION BY JANUARY
4.At least 2.7 million factory workers in southern China could lose their jobs as the global economic crisis hits the demand for electronics, toys and clothes, according to industry estimates. Nine thousand of the 45,000 factories in the cities of Guangzhou, Dongguan, and Shenzhen are expected to close before the Chinese New Year in late January, the Dongguan City Association of Enterprises with Foreign Investment estimates. By then, the association expects overseas demand for products from the three manufacturing hubs to have shrunk by 30 per cent, as the knock-on effects of the US housing market collapse and credit crunch filter down to Chinese workers. "I am afraid it is not going to look good on the Chinese government if the decline of the export-led industries and the unemployment problem continue to worsen," Eddie Leung, the association's President told AFP. Leung, also a member of the Chinese Manufacturers' Association, said the estimate of 2.7 million job losses was conservative, given that many of the larger factories in Guangdong province employ thousands of workers. Clement Chan, Chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, said a quarter of the 70,000 Hong Kong-owned companies in southern China, 17,500 businesses, could go to the wall by the end of January. Describing the likelihood as a "worst case scenario," he said Hong Kong firms in the region employed a total of 10 million workers, but did not want to speculate on the extent of possible job losses. While small and medium-sized factories are especially prone, the threat of lay offs looms just as large over the region's manufacturing giants, further squeezed by the appreciation of the yuan. Harry To's Mansfield Manufacturing is a classic example of the spectacular growth in China's industrial heartland over the last three decades. To started a metal business from a small room in Hong Kong in 1975. In 1991, he joined hundreds of other Hong Kong entrepreneurs moving their production across the border into China to take advantage of cheap labour and land. He now employs 8,500 workers in 11 factories in China and Europe. His six factories in Dongguan cover 140,000 square metres.
To's company, which is now a subsidiary of Singapore-listed InnoTek Ltd. supplies metal components for cars, plasma televisions, printers and other electrical appliances to Japanese brands including Canon, Toshiba, Epson, Minolta and Fuji-Xerox. Business for the company, among the largest in its field in China, has grown by 40 per cent annually in recent years, but with credit being harder to come by, no manufacturer is safe, he said. "With banks being so tight on their lending policies now, bringing down a factory overnight has now become very easy." All his expansion plans have had to be put on hold. "Some of our long-time Japanese and European clients have asked us to stop producing for them in the next two to three weeks," he said. "They said they did not want to have too much stock piled up in their warehouse as demand continues to dwindle." To recently started building a new 70,000 square metre factory in Dongguan and was planning to hire 2,000 more workers later this year. But now, all work on the unfinished factory has stopped until more orders roll in. "No one would expand their business when the prospects for the entire manufacturing industry look so grim," he said. Instead of hiring more workers, To is looking at cutting 1,000 employees across his operations. But far from being downhearted, he is shifting part of the company's export-led production to developing energy-saving electrical appliances for the domestic market, which he sees as weathering the current financial turmoil. "In the long run, I am confident that mainland Chinese consumers' purchasing power will keep rising as their Western counterparts continue to lose out."
----Source AFP
TEXTILE EXPORTS DOWN
5.According to the National Development and Reform Commission, the export delivery value of the Chinese textile industry totaled 435.2 billion yuan ($63.56 billion) in the first seven months of this year, up 7.9 per cent year-on-year, but the growth rate was eight percentage points lower than the previous year. Industry experts attributed the decline to the appreciation of the yuan and the weakening demand of major consumption countries.Garment exports to the United States, one of the major importers of Chinese garments, increased by only six per cent in June. The downtrend of Chinese textile exports is expected to last in the short run. Whether it recovers or not would depend on the trend of the appreciation of the yuan and the US consumption demand. The Ministry of Finance has increased tax rebate rates on some textile and clothing exports from 11 per cent to 13 per cent from August 1.
----- Shanghai Security News as quoted in the China Daily News
REAL EASTATE: EMERGENCY MEASURES TO PRE-EMPT POSSIBLE CRASH
6.The Chinese Government has intervened vigorously in the real estate market to prevent a possible collapse. Real estate contributes to 10 per cent of China's GDP. According to Frank Gong, the analyst of JP Morgan, China's aggressive moves to boost its ailing real estate market provide a glimpse of its unrivalled position in coping with the global financial turmoi.The Government announced measures to head off a property market crash late October 22,2008, after figures released this week showed third quarter domestic product growth slowed to nine per cent, the lowest since mid-2003. "This is big news and the actions came sooner than expected probably because the third-quarter growth was worse than expected and the slowdown has proven sharper than the Government expected," Frank Gong said. With high liquidity, 1.9 trillion-dollar foreign exchange reserves and a stable currency, China has the most flexibility in the world to fend off the impact of the global financial crisis, Gong wrote in a research note. Propping up the property market, which accounts for 10 per cent of China's gross domestic product, was crucial, analysts agreed. "The direction of the residential property market will determine the direction of the Chinese economy over the next 18 months," according to Credit Suisse analyst Dong Tao."The new measures reflect the rising anxiety about growth risks," Dong said. Those measures include lifting the stamp tax on property purchases and value-added tax of land on property sales as of November, the finance ministry said. The People's Bank of China said minimum deposits and mortgage rates for first-time home buyers would be slashed starting next week. The "unambiguous all-out support from both central and local level" Governments was surprising in "both timing and magnitude", Nicole Wong, a Hong Kong-based property analyst with CLSA Research, said. This week's economic data provided the most powerful indication yet that even China's so-far invincible economy was not insulated from the global downturn, especially as fears of recession grow in the United States and Europe – key markets for Chinese manufactured goods. Since the figures were released, China has wasted no time in responding to protect housing and exports, key components of its economy that appeared vulnerable. The property policy decision was announced a day after Beijing said it would increase export tariff rebates on more than 3,000 items, or a quarter of taxable goods, to shore up its exports.
---Source AFP
SUPERVISION OVER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS TIGHTENED FOLLOWING FEARS OF POSSIBLE HUGE LOSSES
7.Beijing is tightening supervision over Chinese financial companies by requiring monthly reports on their foreign currency exposure to ensure stability amid the global turmoil.. The new rules, which take effect this month, apply to both domestic and overseas branches of Chinese financial institutions.The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will require reports on foreign exchange assets and liabilities from institutions including banks, insurers, brokerages and fund management firms as well as the national pension fund and the sovereign wealth fund.Some Chinese financial institutions are feared to have incurred "huge losses" in their foreign exchange assets amid the global credit crisis.
---- Shanghai Security News
FEARS FOR THE FUTURE
8.My comments: The Chinese economy is not yet as vulnerable as the Indian economy. The increased vulnerability of the Indian economy is due to the large flow of foreign money into the stock markets, which are now being withdrawn. The dramatic collapse of the stock market and the sensational publicity which it receives in the media have a greater psychological impact on public mood.The Chinese exposure to the vagaries of investors in the stock markets is much less as compared to India. The predominance of investment flows into the manufacturing industries in China and not into the stock markets gives its economy a larger safety net than in the case of India. However, an advantage in the case of India is that the Indian manufacturing industries had paid more attention to the domestic market than the Chinese manufacturing industries, which have been flourishing largely on exports to the US and Europe. The decline in export orders could prove more damaging to the Chinese economy than to the Indian economy because of the failure of the Chinese industries to develop the domestic market. Industries largely dependent on domestic demand are generally more stable in times of crisis than industries which become over-dependent on the foreign markets. This is the lesson, which the Chinese are learning the hard way. Unfortunately, the Indian IT companies and other businesses in the services sector have developed a large dependence on Western orders. They could suffer more than their Chinese counterparts as orders from Western financial and other business houses for IT services shrink.In India, the GDP growth rate was steady,but not spectacular. In China, it was spectauclar for years continuously at more than 10 per cent per annum. As the GDP growth rate and the export growth rate come down to single digits in China, the extra labour employed all these years to sustain the double digit growth rate will become redundant adding to the number of jobless. Reports from different sources in Guangdong and Fujian indicate that as a result of the downturn, many Hong Kong and Taiwanese--run businesses have not paid the salaries of their workers for about three months and that they may not be able to settle their back wages while retrenching them. This could cause social instability. The crisis has come at a time when China is confronted with the task of finding alternate jobs for thousands of workers who were brought into Beijing for work connected with the Olympics in the construction and the hotel sectors. They are now without jobs, with no prospect of getting one in the near future. (24-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Russia should help create new rules of world economy
October 23, 2008, 21:01
In his recent video blog post Russia's President, Dmitry Medvedev, has addressed the global economic crisis and its impact on Russia.
Hello!
I would like to talk about the global financial crisis that is affecting the entire world. Most countries are faced with the fact that the gross errors committed by several states (especially America) have created serious problems. The U.S. financial market and its impact on the world economy are both very large. Therefore, the crisis that occurred in the U.S. has had a knock-on economic effect on virtually every country.
If this had happened five or seven years ago, perhaps the crisis would have had less of an effect on Russia. Today the situation is different: we are a country with an open economy. On the one hand, this is a great advantage for us; on the other, it compels us to react and deal with the problems faced by other leading nations. Now everyone is working on a single issue: how to extricate the world from the financial crisis and limit the damage it is causing.
What is happening in the world? The sharp decline in the availability of credit has led to a decline in demand, markets themselves have tightened up, there is less use of production capacity, workers are being laid off, which in turn leads to more reduction in demand. Investment programmes and plans for expanding production have been put on hold.
I can say in all honesty that Russia is not yet caught up in this difficult cycle. We can avoid it and we must avoid it.
Governments and central banks of major countries around the world are now doing a great deal to improve the economic situation by providing the necessary resources. We have also taken several measures that should restore confidence in the nearest future in the financial sector and normal lending. In addition, we have set in place measures aimed at sustaining retail trade, agriculture, construction, engineering and the defence industry. We are trying to help small business. Due to the drop in global demand and the difficulties involved in obtaining credit, these are the areas that require our priority support. By and large, our actions should offset these negative factors.
Gold and currency reserves and the Stabilisation Fund were set up for precisely such difficult periods. And we have an opportunity to avoid the foreign exchange, banking and debt crisis. We can meet today's challenges without losing all the potential for development that we have created.
But now it is important not only to protect ourselves from these problems, but also to make the maximum use of the opportunities created by them. And there are a lot of such opportunities.
First, inevitably, new competitive companies will emerge, also by consolidating assets in various sectors of the economy (including banking, retailing and construction). We will be ready to take the necessary measures and to provide additional funding for this purpose. Sustainability of development in these areas will contribute to the creation of new jobs.
Second, financial institutions should become more efficient and pay more attention to reliability indicators. This will improve the stability of our banking sector, making it more attractive to investors and depositors.
Third, in response to falling demand, Russian companies will have to reduce the costs of production. And to do this it is important to modernise production, technology and management as quickly as possible. This way energy efficiency and productivity can rise to the level that will compete with the most successful foreign companies. The state will support the establishment of real jobs and provide tax incentives for innovation and retraining personnel.
Fourth, we should use the current situation for modernisation in those areas where we have previously acted too slowly. This applies to education and health, judicial reform, technical regulations and the transition to digital technology.
And, finally, we must actively participate in formulating new rules of the game in the global economy, in order to maximise benefits for ourselves and to promote a new ideology that will ensure the democracy and stability of the global financial architecture. There should be more financial centres, more reserve currencies and more mechanisms for collective decision-making (I mentioned it quite a few times). This would be beneficial for everyone – for us and for our partners.
On November 15 the heads of the world's leading states will meet in Washington to discuss these issues. Russia intends to actively promote its ideas.
Let me conclude by explaining how I plan to develop my video blog. Of course I looked at your responses to the first entry from October 7. Many of you would like to post your comments. I think that this is the best kind of response. Thank you for your interest, for your interested and responsible approach to discussing topics that are important for our entire society.
It is really great and we are definitely going to develop this interactive dialogue. But please understand that it is difficult to process large amounts of incoming information. Since we take this seriously, at least no less seriously than you do, we must be prepared. By the way, you can already write to me now, including through this site.
Thank you. All the best.
In his recent video blog post Russia's President, Dmitry Medvedev, has addressed the global economic crisis and its impact on Russia.
Hello!
I would like to talk about the global financial crisis that is affecting the entire world. Most countries are faced with the fact that the gross errors committed by several states (especially America) have created serious problems. The U.S. financial market and its impact on the world economy are both very large. Therefore, the crisis that occurred in the U.S. has had a knock-on economic effect on virtually every country.
If this had happened five or seven years ago, perhaps the crisis would have had less of an effect on Russia. Today the situation is different: we are a country with an open economy. On the one hand, this is a great advantage for us; on the other, it compels us to react and deal with the problems faced by other leading nations. Now everyone is working on a single issue: how to extricate the world from the financial crisis and limit the damage it is causing.
What is happening in the world? The sharp decline in the availability of credit has led to a decline in demand, markets themselves have tightened up, there is less use of production capacity, workers are being laid off, which in turn leads to more reduction in demand. Investment programmes and plans for expanding production have been put on hold.
I can say in all honesty that Russia is not yet caught up in this difficult cycle. We can avoid it and we must avoid it.
Governments and central banks of major countries around the world are now doing a great deal to improve the economic situation by providing the necessary resources. We have also taken several measures that should restore confidence in the nearest future in the financial sector and normal lending. In addition, we have set in place measures aimed at sustaining retail trade, agriculture, construction, engineering and the defence industry. We are trying to help small business. Due to the drop in global demand and the difficulties involved in obtaining credit, these are the areas that require our priority support. By and large, our actions should offset these negative factors.
Gold and currency reserves and the Stabilisation Fund were set up for precisely such difficult periods. And we have an opportunity to avoid the foreign exchange, banking and debt crisis. We can meet today's challenges without losing all the potential for development that we have created.
But now it is important not only to protect ourselves from these problems, but also to make the maximum use of the opportunities created by them. And there are a lot of such opportunities.
First, inevitably, new competitive companies will emerge, also by consolidating assets in various sectors of the economy (including banking, retailing and construction). We will be ready to take the necessary measures and to provide additional funding for this purpose. Sustainability of development in these areas will contribute to the creation of new jobs.
Second, financial institutions should become more efficient and pay more attention to reliability indicators. This will improve the stability of our banking sector, making it more attractive to investors and depositors.
Third, in response to falling demand, Russian companies will have to reduce the costs of production. And to do this it is important to modernise production, technology and management as quickly as possible. This way energy efficiency and productivity can rise to the level that will compete with the most successful foreign companies. The state will support the establishment of real jobs and provide tax incentives for innovation and retraining personnel.
Fourth, we should use the current situation for modernisation in those areas where we have previously acted too slowly. This applies to education and health, judicial reform, technical regulations and the transition to digital technology.
And, finally, we must actively participate in formulating new rules of the game in the global economy, in order to maximise benefits for ourselves and to promote a new ideology that will ensure the democracy and stability of the global financial architecture. There should be more financial centres, more reserve currencies and more mechanisms for collective decision-making (I mentioned it quite a few times). This would be beneficial for everyone – for us and for our partners.
On November 15 the heads of the world's leading states will meet in Washington to discuss these issues. Russia intends to actively promote its ideas.
Let me conclude by explaining how I plan to develop my video blog. Of course I looked at your responses to the first entry from October 7. Many of you would like to post your comments. I think that this is the best kind of response. Thank you for your interest, for your interested and responsible approach to discussing topics that are important for our entire society.
It is really great and we are definitely going to develop this interactive dialogue. But please understand that it is difficult to process large amounts of incoming information. Since we take this seriously, at least no less seriously than you do, we must be prepared. By the way, you can already write to me now, including through this site.
Thank you. All the best.
China: space exploration gains pace
16:27 | 23/ 10/ 2008
MOSCOW. (Andrei Kislyakov for RIA Novosti) - China is going to play a major role in the global space exploration program. Soon, a new center for space research may emerge in the Eastern hemisphere and push the current players aside.
China's achievements in science and technology, as well as its consolidation of space programs in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, which have a tremendous economic potential, will contribute to its development.
At the 59th International Astronautical Congress in Glasgow, on October 2, Sun Laiyan, chief of the China National Space Administration, announced that China was prepared to lead the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO).
No doubt the participating world leaders in space research, representing the United States, Russia and Europe, did not underestimate the significance and far-reaching consequences of the Chinese initiative.
Formally, APSCO was established by China, Thailand and Pakistan back in 1992. On October 28, 2005 China, Mongolia, Pakistan, Thailand, Iran, Peru, Bangladesh and Indonesia signed the APSCO Convention, shortly followed by Turkey. Argentina, Philippines, Malaysia and Ukraine may join the organization in the foreseeable future.
The participation of China, Pakistan and Iran, with their dynamically developing missile programs, will turn APSCO into an authoritative high-tech group. Such members of the organization as Thailand and Indonesia have already launched their own satellites. Thus, with China as its leader, the organization has a good chance of becoming very successful.
Although China has been following the initiatives of world leaders in space exploration, it has been making new technological breakthroughs. Three successful manned flights have inspired Beijing to build its own orbital laboratory. At the same time Beijing is making progress in developing a new generation of carrier rockets, a program of outer space exploration, including launching an artificial Moon satellite and preparing for a manned expedition to the Moon.
China's success in space exploration and its leadership in the Asia-Pacific region are evident. If backed up by the potential of APSCO, Beijing may turn into a leading global space power.
While the space exploration programs within the Asia-Pacific region are gaining pace, NASA, the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) and the European Space Agency (ESA) cannot decide on a shared direction for their joint space programs. In spite of encouraging official statements on the need to promote international cooperation in space exploration, both the United States and Europe are set on carrying out their own research, as well as getting useful information to ensure their strategic independence and safety.
A good example of such policy is NASA's Constellation Program aimed at developing U.S. space technologies for conducting large-scale space exploration, which does not envisage participation of other countries.
Another project of this kind is the U.S.-Russian International Space Station (ISS) program. Despite NASA's public statements, the United States see the use of Russian spaceships as a forced measure. In addition, NASA has failed to clearly formulate its vision of the ISS future once the Space Shuttle Program is over.
Cooperation between Russia and Europe in space is less dramatic and has not resulted in any impressive joint programs. The declared Roscosmos - ESA program of developing a new space shuttle system has not seen any practical steps yet. Moreover, EU Industry Commissioner Guenter Verheugen said in late September that any dependence on "the Russians" in organizing manned flights would be unacceptable.
However, in terms of finance and technology, space exploration programs are hard to implement without the involvement of other countries. As Andrei Ionin, a corresponding member of the Tsiolkovsky Russian Academy of Cosmonautics, puts it: "Today we must think about who our key partners in space exploration are. This may be the right moment to start looking eastward, rather than westward. Centers of economic, technological and political power have been shifting to the Asia-Pacific region, where China, Japan and South Korea are experiencing dynamic development."
Once APSCO has advanced to the practical stage, there will be another reason for "looking eastward."
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
MOSCOW. (Andrei Kislyakov for RIA Novosti) - China is going to play a major role in the global space exploration program. Soon, a new center for space research may emerge in the Eastern hemisphere and push the current players aside.
China's achievements in science and technology, as well as its consolidation of space programs in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, which have a tremendous economic potential, will contribute to its development.
At the 59th International Astronautical Congress in Glasgow, on October 2, Sun Laiyan, chief of the China National Space Administration, announced that China was prepared to lead the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO).
No doubt the participating world leaders in space research, representing the United States, Russia and Europe, did not underestimate the significance and far-reaching consequences of the Chinese initiative.
Formally, APSCO was established by China, Thailand and Pakistan back in 1992. On October 28, 2005 China, Mongolia, Pakistan, Thailand, Iran, Peru, Bangladesh and Indonesia signed the APSCO Convention, shortly followed by Turkey. Argentina, Philippines, Malaysia and Ukraine may join the organization in the foreseeable future.
The participation of China, Pakistan and Iran, with their dynamically developing missile programs, will turn APSCO into an authoritative high-tech group. Such members of the organization as Thailand and Indonesia have already launched their own satellites. Thus, with China as its leader, the organization has a good chance of becoming very successful.
Although China has been following the initiatives of world leaders in space exploration, it has been making new technological breakthroughs. Three successful manned flights have inspired Beijing to build its own orbital laboratory. At the same time Beijing is making progress in developing a new generation of carrier rockets, a program of outer space exploration, including launching an artificial Moon satellite and preparing for a manned expedition to the Moon.
China's success in space exploration and its leadership in the Asia-Pacific region are evident. If backed up by the potential of APSCO, Beijing may turn into a leading global space power.
While the space exploration programs within the Asia-Pacific region are gaining pace, NASA, the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) and the European Space Agency (ESA) cannot decide on a shared direction for their joint space programs. In spite of encouraging official statements on the need to promote international cooperation in space exploration, both the United States and Europe are set on carrying out their own research, as well as getting useful information to ensure their strategic independence and safety.
A good example of such policy is NASA's Constellation Program aimed at developing U.S. space technologies for conducting large-scale space exploration, which does not envisage participation of other countries.
Another project of this kind is the U.S.-Russian International Space Station (ISS) program. Despite NASA's public statements, the United States see the use of Russian spaceships as a forced measure. In addition, NASA has failed to clearly formulate its vision of the ISS future once the Space Shuttle Program is over.
Cooperation between Russia and Europe in space is less dramatic and has not resulted in any impressive joint programs. The declared Roscosmos - ESA program of developing a new space shuttle system has not seen any practical steps yet. Moreover, EU Industry Commissioner Guenter Verheugen said in late September that any dependence on "the Russians" in organizing manned flights would be unacceptable.
However, in terms of finance and technology, space exploration programs are hard to implement without the involvement of other countries. As Andrei Ionin, a corresponding member of the Tsiolkovsky Russian Academy of Cosmonautics, puts it: "Today we must think about who our key partners in space exploration are. This may be the right moment to start looking eastward, rather than westward. Centers of economic, technological and political power have been shifting to the Asia-Pacific region, where China, Japan and South Korea are experiencing dynamic development."
Once APSCO has advanced to the practical stage, there will be another reason for "looking eastward."
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
‘American Holodomor’: Millions 'vanished' in 1930s U.S - historian
RUSSIA TODAY
Boris Borisov
While America lectures Russia on the 1932-33 famine in Ukraine, Russian historian Boris Borisov asks what became of over seven million American citizens who disappeared from US population records in the 1930s.
RT: What made you research the history of what you call ‘American Holodomor’?
B.B: It was very simple. As I was doing comparative research of the American Great Depression in the 1930s, and the Great Depression of the 1990s in Russia, I grew interested in the social dimension of the tragedy. It was logical that I looked up official American documents and found out that the discrepancies were so obvious that any independent researcher would not but have doubt about the official U.S. statistic data. All appears to be rather interesting. I will come to that later.
The U.S. Congress added fuel to the fire by adopting resolutions nearly every year blaming the Soviet government for alleged staged famine in the 1930s in Ukraine. The first resolution came in 1988, 50 years after the events described. The current members of Congress wonder about the following, and I quote, “people in the government were aware of what was going on, but did not do anything to help the starving”.
At that very period of 1930s, the wealthy city of New York saw kilometre-long lines of people for free soup. There were no queues on the city’s main streets though, but not because there were no hungry people but because most of the cities did not have any money – they were just bankrupt.
So, I became curious about that and carried out some research that brought about interesting results.
RT: You say that America of the early 1930s made over seven million people perish. It’s a horrifying figure and it needs an explanation. What do you base your research on and why do you say the population statistics of the U.S. government of 1932-33 was falsified?
B.B.: Seven and a half million people does not mean the number of particular victims of the famine, but a general demographic loss, or the difference between the supposed population on the date of the census that was due to be held in 1940 and the factual number of people. In reality, the total demographic loss is bigger. The fact is not contested by anyone. The figure is more than ten million people.
However, when you start researching the subject, you find that there is a migration component – people were coming to the country and leaving. All can be calculated. It turns out then, that three million people can be subtracted at the cost of migration – in approximate figures, as it is not a scientific report.
What’s left is 7.5 million people still missing. The question is: where are they?
Voluntary defenders of U.S. values who venture to discuss the matter with me, normally begin with a statement that those people were simply not born. However, if we take the age pyramid and distribute the people according to their dates of birth, it becomes apparent that 5.5 million children and two million grown-ups are missing from the 7.5 million. So, those two million people could not have been non-existent – as they had been born. They could only die.
As a result, I consider the two million of grown-up victims as the limit proved from the bottom – for 10 years, let me emphasise this.
Could the remaining children out of those 5.5 not have been born? The U.S. statistics does not answer this question. If we use the method of international juxtapositions and see how demography reacted to similar disastrous events in other countries, we will see that the distribution of the demographic was divided between the children who had died and had not been born in the ratio of Ð… to Ð…. In other words, it’s from 2 to 4 million extra losses.
The overall loss in ten years could be estimated as being from four - or slightly fewer - to six - or slightly more - million.
Let me quote some figures, if you don’t mind – demonstrating how other countries reacted to the similar situation. If you believe that four or six million people is a terrible number, let me quote this: male mortality rate in Russia: 810,000 in 1984; 1,226,000 in 1994 - whereas the population is the same. In other words, as compared with 1984, the year 1996 had an additional number of 416,000 dead males. You have to add females and children to that figure.
As of now the prevalence of the death rate over birth rate yet remains, although smaller. Some say it is horrible, others say it’s normal as the country is developing. So there are different takes about there being half a million dead. Nobody tears his or her hair out to discuss this.
Likewise, there were opposing viewpoints in the USA. Some said it was horrible – “We had millions of people deprived of their land!” – those who read Steinbeck well knew the situation from his documentary-authentic novels depicting starving children. Others say, “No, it’s all right. We’re fighting depression and all is as scheduled.” Like here today, I think.
RT: Imagine the so-called “hungry marches” in the times of President Hoover and quote memories of a child about those events. Did you actually find any survivors still alive to tell the story and confirm the fact of ‘American Holodomor’?
B.B.: Let me draw your attention to the fact that it was not me who called those marches “hunger marches”. They were called so by the participants. When someone goes marching in protest against war, they protest against war because people get killed there. When someone protests against hunger, it means they protest against dying of starvation, and the people are ready for social unrest. You may know that not only the police but also regular military troops were used to disperse those marches.
There is a huge amount of evidence. Let me quote some. For example. The thing is that in summer an article by Dmitriy Lyskov was published in the English translation, with some conclusions drawn from my research. That caused active discussion in English-language blogs, also in the USA, which is understandable.
What do Americans write in their stories? Just three quotes:
1) The ancient members of my family told me how people used to come to the door asking to do a day’s work for only a meal.
2) If this story is true and our federal government knew the enormity of the crisis during the 30s, then it might explain their silence about the famine in Ukraine during the same time.
3) It's a good argument... I heard lots of stories about the Depression from all my relatives, and especially from my mother and father. People were starving, I don’t dispute that. But I don’t think it would have been seven million.
We can see flat ideological statements about democracy and freedom in the USA then, therefore such things just could not have been there. However, we have authentic stories, so numerous that one could make volumes out of them and put them on a shelf.
RT: Such outstanding historical moments are usually reflected in literature, films, and, of course, journalist reports and research articles. The American depression is definitely one of those remarkable periods. Is there any proof of your theory in an article of a newspaper of that time?
B.B.: They did write about it, of course, but in a style similar to that used in our newspapers about the 1990s. They criticised the government, parties fought each other, someone criticised local authorities, someone insisted on their programmes, others on the opposite. As a whole, however, the bigger picture of the epoch will be seen only in a while. As for sources, they can be used for reference about those real events that were happening there.
Of course, journalists may be interested in a fact about a tractor that pulled down a farm. There are many facts of this kind – Steinbeck eloquently tells a lot about such things. But as to what happened to that farm later, the fact being that ten people left but only eight came back, is seldom told – both then and now. It’s not something of big interest to journalists.
For instance, who died in your family in the past two years?
You must bear in mind that those who died are in the lowest stratum of the American society – either had been poor, or became poor and failed to get out of this level. Try to find research details about the death rate among homeless people in Russia now – you will encounter big difficulties. You may find, but that may take a long time. And you will hardly find anything in newspapers, despite the fact that mortality among the homeless is there. And it’s about citizens of Russia and most likely the number of those dying is big. Perhaps the factor that not all of them volunteered to become homeless is the answer.
RT: In your article, you write about the agrarian business lobby you claim is guilty of destroying the state food resources. Can you please tell more about it and maybe compare it to any instance of more recent economic wars or lobbies, maybe?
B.B.: The modern example is obvious – it’s a modern programme of producing fuel from food. It’s not by chance, that the Cuban leader Fidel Castro raised this question, thus dotting the ‘i’s’ and crossing the ‘t’s’. As a matter of fact, producing fuel from food is something to enrich someone, whereas impoverishing dozens of millions of others. The process is already there and the current increase of food prices is already causing political unrest and more deaths. Medical specialists don't do this in third-world countries nor in rich countries so far. The process is under way. Unless stopped, by the end of the 21st century, the programme of obtaining fuel from food will be studied in history books on pages next to Hitler and concentration camps. The scale of the consequences would be comparable, in terms of the number of victims.
This is what concerns the current situation.
RT: We had these discussions in the time of chaos and depression in the world’s financial markets. Hundreds of people are losing their jobs, credits are not paid back, the mortgage crisis is on. As an economist, do you see this as the beginning of a new great depression and, actually, a new Holodomor?
B.B.: Comparing the current crisis with the Great Depression has become commonplace in economic discussions. I would rather not over-load you with some economic terms but let me give you a simple example. The modern crisis radically differs from the one in the early 20th century. Whereas that crisis was of an industrial society, this one is of a post-industrial society and the economy of services.
What does that mean? Imagine yourself a highly-paid specialist in securities. You strike deals and earn a lot. You’re sure you’re worth it, because the deals yield good profits. Who do you need? A legal adviser. Many of them, with an office, secretaries, clerks – all of whom help you not to lose your money and do your business. Who do the legal advisers need? They need bank employees who take their lucrative salaries and deposit them at advantageous terms. This is what makes up the first financial circle.
The first circle is followed by another one, where people need property dealers, as they are very busy themselves and would not build homes on their own. They would need a tourist agent to quickly arrange that their bottoms could be warmed up in Hawaii. And they need transfer agents to arrange all the transportation.
Then follows the third circle of the services industry – including cafes where the guys from the first and second circles have coffee, restaurant where they dine, fitness centres to make them fit sometimes – an they're necessary in the centre of the city, because they cannot afford getting away from the money source spring as someone else can crawl up and scoop from it. Ninety per cent of the fee is taken by the rent of the premises in the prestigious locations.
All the rest is arranged likewise.
Now, imagine that the stock market has collapsed. You have no job and no revenue. So you pack to leave – Lehman Brothers all pack. You don’t need legal advisers anymore. If you do, however, you have no money to pay them with. No bank specialists are required. That is followed by no need for a property agent, and all the rest down the chain.
What have we got as a result? In an industrial economy, an enterprise has some safety factor – some reserves, long-term contracts, some property they can sell or mortgage at the end of the day. There is no such safety margin in the services industry. As soon as the money source stops, the services industry rumbles like a house of cards.
So, things may be developing now much faster than in the pre-WWII times. This is what we can see happening now during a very short period of time, much shorter than in the time of the Great Depression, major financial institutions collapsed, which set the alarm bells ringing, as French President Sarkozy put it, making the economy a little smarter. This is well understood by the leaders, but nobody says how to do this.
To watch the interview, please click the VIDEO button on the right.
Where did America’s missing millions go? Holodomor Lessons (Article by Boris Borisov)
October 23, 2008
LaRouche Interviewed On Indian TV
Increase DecreaseOctober 20, 2008 (LPAC)--Lyndon LaRouche was interviewed live today via satellite for a television broadcast on "India This Week,'' a prime time weekly news program on India's best and most watched TV channel, NDTV. The program was aired live on national TV at 9 PM India time, with an estimated 11 to 15 million viewers. LaRouche was introduced as a former U.S. Democratic Presidential candidate, and pictured in front of the White House during the interview conducted by news anchor Natasha Jog in New Delhi. LaRouche then responded to questions.
On the subject of global financial collapse:
LaRouche: "We're in a crisis which is comparable in category, to what happened in Europe in the 14th century with what was called the New Dark Age. This is a crisis immediately caused by the quadrillions of dollars, outstanding obligations in the derivatives category. And the system is crashing; it's going to a terminal end unless an immediate reform is made, which will involve a number of countries coming to an agreement, around the idea of what's called a New Bretton Woods. Without that, we're headed for a New Dark Age.''
On the question of this being the biggest collapse in modern history:
LaRouche: "Absolutely, unless we stop it. We can stop it. But if we don't take the measures necessary to stop it, we shall be in a breakdown crisis of civilization globally.''
On the subject of a bailout:
LaRouche: "There is no possibility that a bailout would work. You're in a situation which is comparable, in some features, to Germany 1923, in which you're caught between hyperinflation, and collapse. And slight movements will move things in one way or the other. We could move to an immediate collapse, at almost any time. That is, a breakdown crisis of the system. We were very close to it recently in the United States--this is global.
We could also come to an agreement, particularly among the United States, Russia, China, and India--as initiating partners--to get out of this mess.''
On the subject of a new international financial agreement:
LaRouche: "Without that agreement, which has to include also Russia and the United States, it's not possible, in time, to save the world system.''
On the subject of what LaRouche would do:
LaRouche: "I'd do what I'm already doing. I would go to Russia and propose that they take the initiative in conjunction with China and India, and other countries, but those countries in particular, to approach the United States, on the idea of a New Bretton Woods Conference. Under those conditions, we can mobilize the planet, sufficiently, to stop this crisis.''
On the subject of global financial collapse:
LaRouche: "We're in a crisis which is comparable in category, to what happened in Europe in the 14th century with what was called the New Dark Age. This is a crisis immediately caused by the quadrillions of dollars, outstanding obligations in the derivatives category. And the system is crashing; it's going to a terminal end unless an immediate reform is made, which will involve a number of countries coming to an agreement, around the idea of what's called a New Bretton Woods. Without that, we're headed for a New Dark Age.''
On the question of this being the biggest collapse in modern history:
LaRouche: "Absolutely, unless we stop it. We can stop it. But if we don't take the measures necessary to stop it, we shall be in a breakdown crisis of civilization globally.''
On the subject of a bailout:
LaRouche: "There is no possibility that a bailout would work. You're in a situation which is comparable, in some features, to Germany 1923, in which you're caught between hyperinflation, and collapse. And slight movements will move things in one way or the other. We could move to an immediate collapse, at almost any time. That is, a breakdown crisis of the system. We were very close to it recently in the United States--this is global.
We could also come to an agreement, particularly among the United States, Russia, China, and India--as initiating partners--to get out of this mess.''
On the subject of a new international financial agreement:
LaRouche: "Without that agreement, which has to include also Russia and the United States, it's not possible, in time, to save the world system.''
On the subject of what LaRouche would do:
LaRouche: "I'd do what I'm already doing. I would go to Russia and propose that they take the initiative in conjunction with China and India, and other countries, but those countries in particular, to approach the United States, on the idea of a New Bretton Woods Conference. Under those conditions, we can mobilize the planet, sufficiently, to stop this crisis.''
Chinese Economy Monitor--- Note 1
By B. Raman
(What will be the impact of the global financial and economic melt-down on the Chinese economy? This question should be of interest to the other countries of the South and the South-East Asian region. If the Chinese economy is badly affected, they too are likely to feel the negative consequences of the down-turn in the Chinese economy. Keeping this in view, we intend bringing out a periodic "Chinese Economy Monitor" based on open information. Here goes the first Monitor in the series---B. Raman)
Citic Pacific Faces Enquiry
The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong announced on October 22,2008, that it has undertaken an enquiry into the affairs of the Citic Pacific, the Hong Kong listed branch of the China International Trust and Investment Corporation, following a report submitted by the Citic Pacific to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 20, allegedly admitting that two of its senior executives had entered into unauthorised foreign exchange forward contracts in Euros and Australian dollars, which have already resulted in a loss of US $ 104 million, with a possibility of further losses, which could run up to another US $ 200 million. Among those reportedly facing enquiry are a Finance Director of the Company and the daughter of the Chairman of the company, who occupied a senior position in the company. It has been reported that pending the enquiry she has already been demoted. Albert Ho, a member of the Hong Kong Legislative Assembly, has accused the company of concealing this information from the investors. The Citic Pacific has reportedly admitted that it became aware of this unauthorised transaction on September 7. According to Ho, the company did not mention this in a circular issued by it to the investors on September 12. The prices of the shares of the company fell by 55 per cent on October 21 and by another 10 per cent on October 22.---- Source Agence France Presse (AFP).
Toy Industry In A Crisis
2. Another toy factory in China catering to the US market went bankrupt on October 22 and closed down its production, rendering 900 workers jobless. The toy factory is called the Chong Yik Toy company. It is owned by a Hong Kong businessman and is based in Shenzhen in the Guangdong province. Some of the workers have alleged that they were not paid their salaries for the last four months. Some payments were made to them by the company as well as the local Chinese authorities at the time of the termination of their services. Last week, the Hong Kong listed Smart Union Toys factory in Dongguan in the Guangdong province closed down after terminating the services of 7000 workers. According to the Xinhua news agency, in the first seven months of this year, 3631 small scale enterprises producing toys mainly for the US market have closed down due to a decline in the demand for China-made toys from the US. These enterprises, which have closed down, constituted 52.7 per cent of all toy-making companies in China--- Source "South China Morning Post" and AFP.
Shipping Companies Face Difficulties
3. After the aviation industry, the shipping industry is facing a crisis due to a decrease in demand for cargo space. Share prices of some major shipping companies, which haul bulk freight such as iron ore, coal and grains, have fallen by 50-70 per cent in the past few months. "The global economic slowdown will push some shipping lines into bankruptcy," Marc Faber, a famed investor and editor of the "Gloom Boom & Doom" report, told AFP. Standard & Poor's also said this week that the Asian shipping market has suffered double-digit declines on the US-Asia route in June and July, as well as being hit with higher operating costs. There are reports of idle vessels being put to anchor, and question marks over the many orders for new ships that were placed in brighter times, years ahead of expected completion dates. "Pain levels could be high for companies that agreed to pay 2007 top-dollar prices for dry bulk ships, or who agreed to pay high long-term charters," said an article in the Far Eastern Economic Review this month. Container shipping was hit first earlier this year as demand for Asian-made goods in the US and Europe dropped off. In a chain reaction, Asian factories manufacturing electronics and consumer items for the US and European markets began lowering output, and the need for raw materials has declined.
Container shippers, bulk operators and port authorities across the region are reporting slowdowns. Malaysia's Port Klang said it had been hit by a decline in cargo handling since the start of October, due to a retail downturn and lower vehicle sales in the US and Europe. The
Shanghai International Port has said that growth in cargo traffic dropped sharply to 9.9 per cent in the first half of 2008 on the "increasingly grave global economy and trade situation". "Faced with the severe economic situation at home and abroad, the port industry has met with the most complicated operation environment in recent years," it said. Hong Kong, which is sensitive to any drop in demand for toys, gadgets and clothes made in the factory-belt of China's southern Guangdong province, said that after an increase of 6.7 per cent in container traffic in August, growth dropped suddenly in September to just 1.2 per cent. "Given the global gloomy economic outlook, Hong Kong is expected to face a much tougher export trade environment," said Hong Kong Container Terminal Operators Association chairman Alan Lee.
In Taiwan's seven harbours, volumes fell 2.23 per cent in the nine months to September, and in southern Kaohsiung city, business was down 1.76 per cent. "We are seeing a rapid decline in the volume of exports," an official with the Japanese Shipowners' Association said of the decline in demand. Shipping rates have been falling to levels s not seen since the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998.A so-called capesize vessel, most commonly used to carry coal and iron ore, now costs under US$11,000 a day to hire, about half the charge in May.
Container shipping lines have said they expect cargo demand on the US-Asia route to fall by as much as eight per cent in 2008.
"It's a safe statement that no carrier is operating profitably in the eastbound transpacific market today," said Ron Widdows, chairman of the Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement - a forum of major shipping lines. However, the group said vessels are still running at 90 per cent capacity as firms cut costs by consolidating routes and returning chartered vessels, and take advantage of the downturn to lay up ships for repairs. Widdows said the industry was confident that government efforts to unclog global finance would be effective, restoring confidence and paving the way for a shipping recovery in late 2009.---- Source AFP
Container Traffic Down
4. Shanghai's port, one of the world's busiest, has cut its container traffic target for the year by five per cent, blaming the global financial crisis and an economic slowdown. The Shanghai International Port Group's handling volume is expected to reach 28.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), less than its earlier target of 30 million TEU. Lower trade volume due to the weakening global economy, slowing domestic growth and natural disasters in China this year have affected the port's container operations. China's economy expanded by nine per cent in the third quarter, the lowest level in about five years as the global credit crisis put a dent in its booming economy. The port operator's container throughput rose 10.4 per cent from a year earlier to 13.82 million TEU in the first half, sharply slower than the growth in 2007, when throughput jumped 20.4 per cent to 26.2 million TEU. In the first nine months of 2008, container processing in Chinese ports rose 14.9 per cent to 94.5 million TEU, 2.2 per cent lower than the first half, according to Ministry of Transport figures.--- Source "Shanghai Securities News" and AFP.
Move For Financial Watchdog
5.Japan, China and South Korea will set up an Asian watchdog body to monitor the health of financial institutions in a bid to counter global economic chaos.They hope to have the first meeting in Tokyo next month and also invite other Asian nations including the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).It would serve as a regional version of the Financial Stability Forum, a panel that advises the Group of Seven major economies and exchanges information among them. Japan also hopes the meeting would discuss enhancing controls on the financial system. The move came as US and European leaders called for an emergency summit in November to discuss ways to restore the battered global financial sector. Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso is also sounding out whether the South Korean and Chinese leaders can travel to Japan by the end of the year for an inaugural three-way economic summit. Japanese Government officials declined to comment on the reports. ---Source "Yomiuri Shimbun" and the Kyodo news agency.
Real Estate
6. China will exempt property transactions from stamp tax and value-added tax from November 1 to boost the ailing real estate market, state media reported on October 22, citing the Finance Ministry.
Impact On Sino-Indian Trade
My comment: The down-turn in the Chinese economy is likely to affect Sino-Indian bilateral trade which has galloped to a record US $ 30 billion and could affect Indian iron ore producers. Iron ore constitutes about 55 per cent of Indian exports to China. With the Olympics over and with the sluggish real estate market and a suspension of the construction of new factories, the demand for steel in China could come down.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
(What will be the impact of the global financial and economic melt-down on the Chinese economy? This question should be of interest to the other countries of the South and the South-East Asian region. If the Chinese economy is badly affected, they too are likely to feel the negative consequences of the down-turn in the Chinese economy. Keeping this in view, we intend bringing out a periodic "Chinese Economy Monitor" based on open information. Here goes the first Monitor in the series---B. Raman)
Citic Pacific Faces Enquiry
The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong announced on October 22,2008, that it has undertaken an enquiry into the affairs of the Citic Pacific, the Hong Kong listed branch of the China International Trust and Investment Corporation, following a report submitted by the Citic Pacific to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 20, allegedly admitting that two of its senior executives had entered into unauthorised foreign exchange forward contracts in Euros and Australian dollars, which have already resulted in a loss of US $ 104 million, with a possibility of further losses, which could run up to another US $ 200 million. Among those reportedly facing enquiry are a Finance Director of the Company and the daughter of the Chairman of the company, who occupied a senior position in the company. It has been reported that pending the enquiry she has already been demoted. Albert Ho, a member of the Hong Kong Legislative Assembly, has accused the company of concealing this information from the investors. The Citic Pacific has reportedly admitted that it became aware of this unauthorised transaction on September 7. According to Ho, the company did not mention this in a circular issued by it to the investors on September 12. The prices of the shares of the company fell by 55 per cent on October 21 and by another 10 per cent on October 22.---- Source Agence France Presse (AFP).
Toy Industry In A Crisis
2. Another toy factory in China catering to the US market went bankrupt on October 22 and closed down its production, rendering 900 workers jobless. The toy factory is called the Chong Yik Toy company. It is owned by a Hong Kong businessman and is based in Shenzhen in the Guangdong province. Some of the workers have alleged that they were not paid their salaries for the last four months. Some payments were made to them by the company as well as the local Chinese authorities at the time of the termination of their services. Last week, the Hong Kong listed Smart Union Toys factory in Dongguan in the Guangdong province closed down after terminating the services of 7000 workers. According to the Xinhua news agency, in the first seven months of this year, 3631 small scale enterprises producing toys mainly for the US market have closed down due to a decline in the demand for China-made toys from the US. These enterprises, which have closed down, constituted 52.7 per cent of all toy-making companies in China--- Source "South China Morning Post" and AFP.
Shipping Companies Face Difficulties
3. After the aviation industry, the shipping industry is facing a crisis due to a decrease in demand for cargo space. Share prices of some major shipping companies, which haul bulk freight such as iron ore, coal and grains, have fallen by 50-70 per cent in the past few months. "The global economic slowdown will push some shipping lines into bankruptcy," Marc Faber, a famed investor and editor of the "Gloom Boom & Doom" report, told AFP. Standard & Poor's also said this week that the Asian shipping market has suffered double-digit declines on the US-Asia route in June and July, as well as being hit with higher operating costs. There are reports of idle vessels being put to anchor, and question marks over the many orders for new ships that were placed in brighter times, years ahead of expected completion dates. "Pain levels could be high for companies that agreed to pay 2007 top-dollar prices for dry bulk ships, or who agreed to pay high long-term charters," said an article in the Far Eastern Economic Review this month. Container shipping was hit first earlier this year as demand for Asian-made goods in the US and Europe dropped off. In a chain reaction, Asian factories manufacturing electronics and consumer items for the US and European markets began lowering output, and the need for raw materials has declined.
Container shippers, bulk operators and port authorities across the region are reporting slowdowns. Malaysia's Port Klang said it had been hit by a decline in cargo handling since the start of October, due to a retail downturn and lower vehicle sales in the US and Europe. The
Shanghai International Port has said that growth in cargo traffic dropped sharply to 9.9 per cent in the first half of 2008 on the "increasingly grave global economy and trade situation". "Faced with the severe economic situation at home and abroad, the port industry has met with the most complicated operation environment in recent years," it said. Hong Kong, which is sensitive to any drop in demand for toys, gadgets and clothes made in the factory-belt of China's southern Guangdong province, said that after an increase of 6.7 per cent in container traffic in August, growth dropped suddenly in September to just 1.2 per cent. "Given the global gloomy economic outlook, Hong Kong is expected to face a much tougher export trade environment," said Hong Kong Container Terminal Operators Association chairman Alan Lee.
In Taiwan's seven harbours, volumes fell 2.23 per cent in the nine months to September, and in southern Kaohsiung city, business was down 1.76 per cent. "We are seeing a rapid decline in the volume of exports," an official with the Japanese Shipowners' Association said of the decline in demand. Shipping rates have been falling to levels s not seen since the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998.A so-called capesize vessel, most commonly used to carry coal and iron ore, now costs under US$11,000 a day to hire, about half the charge in May.
Container shipping lines have said they expect cargo demand on the US-Asia route to fall by as much as eight per cent in 2008.
"It's a safe statement that no carrier is operating profitably in the eastbound transpacific market today," said Ron Widdows, chairman of the Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement - a forum of major shipping lines. However, the group said vessels are still running at 90 per cent capacity as firms cut costs by consolidating routes and returning chartered vessels, and take advantage of the downturn to lay up ships for repairs. Widdows said the industry was confident that government efforts to unclog global finance would be effective, restoring confidence and paving the way for a shipping recovery in late 2009.---- Source AFP
Container Traffic Down
4. Shanghai's port, one of the world's busiest, has cut its container traffic target for the year by five per cent, blaming the global financial crisis and an economic slowdown. The Shanghai International Port Group's handling volume is expected to reach 28.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), less than its earlier target of 30 million TEU. Lower trade volume due to the weakening global economy, slowing domestic growth and natural disasters in China this year have affected the port's container operations. China's economy expanded by nine per cent in the third quarter, the lowest level in about five years as the global credit crisis put a dent in its booming economy. The port operator's container throughput rose 10.4 per cent from a year earlier to 13.82 million TEU in the first half, sharply slower than the growth in 2007, when throughput jumped 20.4 per cent to 26.2 million TEU. In the first nine months of 2008, container processing in Chinese ports rose 14.9 per cent to 94.5 million TEU, 2.2 per cent lower than the first half, according to Ministry of Transport figures.--- Source "Shanghai Securities News" and AFP.
Move For Financial Watchdog
5.Japan, China and South Korea will set up an Asian watchdog body to monitor the health of financial institutions in a bid to counter global economic chaos.They hope to have the first meeting in Tokyo next month and also invite other Asian nations including the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).It would serve as a regional version of the Financial Stability Forum, a panel that advises the Group of Seven major economies and exchanges information among them. Japan also hopes the meeting would discuss enhancing controls on the financial system. The move came as US and European leaders called for an emergency summit in November to discuss ways to restore the battered global financial sector. Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso is also sounding out whether the South Korean and Chinese leaders can travel to Japan by the end of the year for an inaugural three-way economic summit. Japanese Government officials declined to comment on the reports. ---Source "Yomiuri Shimbun" and the Kyodo news agency.
Real Estate
6. China will exempt property transactions from stamp tax and value-added tax from November 1 to boost the ailing real estate market, state media reported on October 22, citing the Finance Ministry.
Impact On Sino-Indian Trade
My comment: The down-turn in the Chinese economy is likely to affect Sino-Indian bilateral trade which has galloped to a record US $ 30 billion and could affect Indian iron ore producers. Iron ore constitutes about 55 per cent of Indian exports to China. With the Olympics over and with the sluggish real estate market and a suspension of the construction of new factories, the demand for steel in China could come down.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
China and Regional Security Architecture
By D. S. Rajan
A debate is now in progress among major Asia-Pacific nations on what should be the ultimate regional security architecture. This is happening at a time when fast-growing trade linkages and deepening cooperation through various integration mechanisms have already been transforming the region’s economic and political landscape. The debate itself certainly looks like a response to the rising impact on the region from a combination of traditional and non-traditional security threats; its objective is also becoming clear - progressing towards evolving a new security mechanism for the whole region, supplanting the existing various sub-regional groupings. In this process, the centrality, which the People’s Republic of China (PRC), a fast rising regional and global player, would occupy, may not be difficult to imagine.
Beijing’s emerging views of a regional architecture, as expected, are closely linked to its own security perceptions and it cannot be denied that the same is the case with other key Asia-Pacific powers, like Japan, ASEAN, Australia, the US and India. As views vary, intra-regional differences on the subject being noticed appear normal. However, it is important to see how the final picture will emerge. In the ensuing paragraphs, an attempt has been made to trace various positions and analyse their likely implications for the evolution of a regional security mechanism, acceptable to all concerned nations.
China
Beijing’s stated vision is to establish ‘harmony’ in Asia-Pacific region; to achieve this, it has proposed a regional security cooperation concept featuring ‘equality, mutual benefit, openness and practicality’ and according ‘due role’ to ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Security Policy Conferences. In its view, in parallel to the pursuit of such cooperation, the existing regional and sub-regional cooperation mechanisms need to be developed[1]. Seeking to explain its ‘harmony’ goal above in strategic terms, the PRC thinks that ‘ peace is a product of parity, balance of power and offensive and defensive strengths’ and that no action should be taken sacrificing security interest of one country while achieving security in other nations. In this context, it believes that there should be no expansion of military alliances and deployment of missile defence system in the region; ‘missile defence partnership in some areas would be detrimental to strategic balance, confidence building and regional stability’[2]. China also stresses the connectivity between regional security and its ‘new thinking’ on security, based on ‘mutual trust, mutual benefit, quality and coordination’[3]. It believes in the ‘non-exclusive’ nature of regional cooperation and in drawing on the development practices of other regions[4]
Japan
Japan’s official position is to accept the need for a ‘multilateral collective defence security mechanism’ in the Asia-Pacific region, similar to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) in Europe. Tokyo, at the same time, admits problems in this regard due to the existing ‘diversity in the region’s political and economic systems, cultures and ethnicities’. Under the circumstances, Japan seems to prefer a short-term approach aimed at ‘strengthening the existing multi-layer frameworks for bilateral and multilateral dialogue, while securing the presence and engagement of the US in the region’.[5] It gives emphasis on the ‘synergy between Japan-US Security alliance and Tokyo’s Asian diplomacy’. Japan also feels that the ‘balance of power’ factor could be significant in the changing regional security environment, but reaching ‘mutual understanding’ among countries concerned is essential in this regard. Tokyo does not treat China as a threat to Japan, but wants Beijing to enhance the transparency of its military capabilities and their purpose[6]. Some scholars in Japan have been more specific than the government on regional security mechanism. They have stressed the need for an “East Asia Security Forum” consisting of core states (ASEAN plus 6 including India, along with the US). The Forum, in their view, should reflect the principle of ‘inclusive multilateralism’ and ‘cooperative security’. On China, they recommend a ‘cautious’ Japanese engagement with that country, ‘predicated on traditional balance of power approach’ and for this purpose, foresee a ‘consolidation of strategic links between the four largest democratic states – Japan, India, Australia and the US.[7]
ASEAN
The ASEAN views itself as the ‘centre’ of the regional security architecture[8]. It visualizes the roles of a ‘facilitator’ and ‘honest broker’ to itself for the architecture, citing the reason that ASEAN nations enjoy a ‘pivotal geographic position’, providing a ‘neutral ground where powers with intersecting interests meet’. It hopes that the architecture could be shaped as the existing various structures like the East Asia Summits, Shangrila Dialogue and ASEAN Defence Ministers meetings, continue to evolve. The ASEAN identifies “three principles” to guide the development of an effective architecture- regional security is collective responsibility of all countries that have a stake in the region’s security, the architecture should be ‘open and inclusive’ and regional cooperation should be based on mutual respect and be in accordance with international law[9].
Australia
Australia stands for creation of an ‘Asia-Pacific Community’ by 2020, a body similar to the European Union, to span the entire region including itself, the US, Japan, China, India, Indonesia and other regional powers; it visualizes a charter for such Community -engaging in a ‘ a full spectrum of dialogue, cooperation and action in economic and political matters and future challenges relating to security’. Canberra’s concept has two premises- the global economic and strategic weight is shifting to Asia and the existing fora like ASEAN were not designed to promote cooperation across the entire region, due to the ‘greater diversity’ in the region’s political systems and economic structures[10]. It finds a remedy to the situation in the proposed Community which could ‘enhance the region’s “fragmented” security and political cooperation as well as help resolve a number of regional conflicts, including on Taiwan, Kashmir and North Korea.[11] China promptly welcomed the proposal by saying that the latter is in line with its hope for joint efforts in the region to ‘enhance exchanges and mutual political trust as well as deepen mutually beneficial cooperation, for achieving common development’[12].
The US
The US acknowledges the ‘provisional’ nature of efforts to find a new Asia-Pacific security architecture and welcomes the ASEAN leadership in this search. It assures continued commitment to the region as a ‘resident’ power as its ‘sovereign’ territory stretches from the Aleutian Islands to Guam in the Western Pacific. While discussions on a new security architecture progress further, Washington in the meantime, would like to institutionalise the various existing forums to deal with the ‘region- specific’ problems and depend on its ‘time-tested’ architecture involving ‘alliances’ (with Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Thailand) and “partner-nation capacity building” (with India and Vietnam), the latter being described as a ‘new thinking in US overall defence strategy’. As per the declared US benchmarks for building new security architecture, that process should not be a ‘zero sum game’ and exclusion of any single country would mean ignoring the reality of Asia’s security today. Besides, ‘the entire region should be treated as a single entity and that there should be no separate East Asian order’.[13]
India
In New Delhi’s formulations, Asian security cannot be looked in isolation from the region’s broader political and economic aspects. To accommodate Asia’s ‘diversity’, a ‘pluralistic security order’ based on a ‘cooperative’ approach is a must. Under such ‘polycentric’ security, each participant will have ‘equal stake and responsibility’. India believes that the order must be ‘open and inclusive’ and take into account the conditions prevailing in Asia. There should be no transplant of ideas from other parts of the world and any sub-regional security arrangements that are narrow and ultimately ineffective, should not be created. The building blocks for the new framework could be dialogue forums like ARF, Comprehensive International Cooperative Association (CICA) and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). [14]
Positional analysis
A comparative analysis of the positions of major Asia-Pacific players on the regional security architecture reveals divisions among them on the following issues:
· Participation of the US:
The term ‘open and inclusive’ is missing in Chinese formulations. By implication, it would mean Chinese wariness to the US participation in the architecture; this is despite Beijing’s support, albeit at its own terms, to the Australian proposal, which includes the US. On the other hand, a near-unanimity prevails among other nations on the US role. The US itself is against ‘any zero sum game’ and exclusion of any country in the region. It may not be happy with its existing exclusion from regional bodies like the East Asia Summit, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and India-China-Russia trilateral dialogue. Japan, on its part, is firm in backing the US ‘presence and engagement’ in the region. ASEAN, by insisting on ‘collective responsibility of all states that have a stake in the region’s security’, has indicated its approval to the US involvement. India’s formula of an ‘open and inclusive’ architecture, also reflects a stand welcoming the US.
· US alliances in Asia
The US and Japan on one side and China on the other, are clearly at odds at each other on the issue of American alliances in Asia. Washington’s emphasis on its ‘tested alliances’ in the region and Japan’s vision of ‘synergy between US-Japan alliance and Tokyo’s Asian diplomacy’ stand in contrast to Beijing’s perception that the US-led alliance in Asia is detrimental to ‘strategic balance’ in the region.
· Who should lead the architecture?
On this issue, India and Japan seem to be on the same side; India’s ‘polycentric’ approach matches with Japan’s line to set up a ‘multilateral collective security mechanism’. In comparison, ASEAN tends to stress its own ‘centrality’ in the architecture; Chinese formulations are silent on the subject; however, their mention of ‘parity’, ‘equality’ and ‘balance of power’ and prescription that the security of one nation should not be sacrificed while ensuring the security of others, reveal Beijing’s mind on the security order- the PRC should play a central role. Beijing and Tokyo desire a ‘balance of power’, but their interpretations are different. The PRC’s intention to play a ‘pre-eminent’ role is already visible; its declaration of support to the leadership of the ASEAN plus three (including the PRC) in matters of ASEAN Regional community, but with Beijing giving ‘long term and strategic guidance’, testifies the same.
· Learning from other models
Sino-Indian divergence is apparent on this subject. In matters of regional cooperation, China is in favour of learning from outside powers; India’s stand on the other hand is to build on an existing architecture taking into account the conditions in Asia, without any transplant of ideas from other parts of the world.
· Sub-regional security arrangements
India is against creation of any ‘ineffective sub-regional security arrangements’. This may raise a question on New Delhi’s attitude towards the ASEAN’s goal of forming a Regional Community by 2015, which has a security component. Also, India, China, Japan and the US approve in varying degrees the development of the existing sub-regional organizations, till a regional architecture emerges; there seems to be a subtle difference in Australia’s attitude on this account. Canberra considers such organisations including the ARF as incapable of fully addressing the problems of the entire region and on that basis, pitches for a regional mechanism.
Concerns-Vision connectivity
Differences in opinions are bound to surface in a debate. Important however would be to correlate the security concerns of each country with their respective positions on regional security architecture. Taking the case of Japan first, its perception of US alliance as key to face threats from China (mainly military modernization, resource development in East China sea), from Russia (unsettled territorial issue) and from North Korea (nuclear weapon programme) provides the underpinning for its vision of a regional order with US involvement.
ASEAN too, sees in US a security guarantor against impact from China-related potential conflicts (South China sea territorial disputes) and a balancing factor to China’s rise. This, along with threats from extremism and the contradiction between Islam and modernization in Southeast Asia, is influencing the ASEAN view of a regional security order. In regional forums where the US is not represented, ASEAN has been careful by opposing Chinese proposals likely to harm US interests. For e.g, it did not accept Beijing’s offer to join the Southeast Asia Nuclear Free Zone, which excludes the US.
For Australia, the priority for the new government led by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is to act as a balancer of relations with China and the West and accordingly, his “Asia-Pacific Community” concept is being seen as an effort to create an institution providing for checks and balances among major powers. While alliance with the US continues to be important for it, Canberra is increasingly eyeing the economic benefits coming out of cementing relations with Beijing. China has become important for Australia for mining and agriculture exports and it has emerged as Australia’s second largest trading partner. Japan and ASEAN, on their parts, are cool to Rudd’s idea. Prime Minister Fukuda took no notice of the idea during Rudd’s visit to his country, instead he emphasized on the roles of Japan and ASEAN in Asia-Pacific. ASEAN is of the view that Rudd has deviated from the principles of his predecessor over regional integration. The re-assurance later of Prime Minister Rudd that ASEAN would continue to be the ‘core’ of existing regional architecture [15] has not been sufficient enough to clear the air.
The US perceptions of a global and regional security order are also linked with its views on the emerging world and Asia-Pacific security scenarios. In this regard, the challenges being perceived by Washington concern Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Russia globally and China, Myanmar and North Korea regionally. The 2008 ‘US National Defense Strategy’ identifies terrorism (Iraq and Afghanistan) as the main global threat and as a shift from strategy adopted so far to deal with that, focus being given to the use of both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ power. China and Russia have been listed as powers which have ‘potentials’ to challenge the US-led international order. The US will strive to establish partnership with the two. But Washington will ‘hedge against Beijing’s growing military modernization and impact of its strategic choices on international security’. US interaction with China will be for long term and multidimensional.[16]. In Asia-Pacific, the US stated goal is to form “ a new Asia-Pacific Democratic Partnership”.[17]
India’s profile in the Asia-Pacific region is increasing as a result of its Look East Policy the scope of which now stands extended to wider East Asia and Pacific basin. New Delhi feels that this, coupled with growing inter-dependence between the nations, have widened India’s responsibility in the region. In its view, the nature and scope of trans-border threats are rising and issues relating to climatic change and food and energy security are also becoming important[18]. To meet the main challenges of border, maritime security and energy security, India is building its own leverages in the region; it is taking active steps like holding talks on border with China, conducting active maritime diplomacy and carrying out energy cooperation. The fact that India has become a factor in the Asia-Pacific balance of power cannot be disputed; however, a rivalry between New Delhi and Beijing seems implicit in this process. Herein lies the real meaning of New Delhi’s ‘polycentric’ approach to regional security architecture.
China’s role will be the key to setting up of a regional architecture. The current picture points to a situation of ‘Beijing versus the rest’. It is because of the significant differences between its stand and that of other nations. China’s regional security concerns, as can be seen from various official documents and pronouncements, relate to ‘still not properly solved territorial and maritime disputes, Taiwan issue, the ‘ three evils’ of terrorism, ethnic separatism and religious extremism and threats to sea lanes of communication. Beijing also sees challenges in the US alliances and deployment of missile systems in the region, weaponisation of outer space and nuclear proliferation. It looks at with strong suspicions the US role in the region, particularly its ties with Japan and India as reflecting attempts to ‘contain’ China. The quadrilateral concept of ‘alliance of democracies’ (Japan, Australia, US and India) and the joint ‘Malabar’ military exercises by these nations have been the principal Chinese targets. Beijing also thinks that the Indo-US civil nuclear cooperation agreement is against the interests of the international non-proliferation regime and that India’s nuclear programme is a security threat for China.
Signs of China’s hesitation to give a leading role to India in regional integration are not difficult to see. For e.g, India’s regional cooperation policy is being criticised by China for its alleged aim to control the Malacca straits. [19] On formation of the proposed ASEAN Regional Community also, Beijing visualises no role for India[20]; it instead wants to play a ‘guiding’ role to ASEAN plus 3 in this regard. Regarding East Asia summits, the PRC is only willing to accept India (also Australia and New Zealand) as ‘outsider’ member. The Chinese position being seen on India runs counter to what President Hu Jintao said in India (November 2006) – “ Both China and India positively view each others’ participation in Asian inter- regional, regional and sub-regional cooperation process”. It is not surprising that concerns of Beijing as above, are finding an echo in the Chinese vision for a regional architecture.
Conclusion
The PRC appears to believe that its concerns can effectively be dealt with only by a security order led by it; this despite its ‘rhetoric’ on ‘equality and parity’ in the order. Beijing, in this regard, sees the US as principal challenger and this imposes on China the necessity to have an Asia-Pacific strategy aimed at limiting the US power and influence in the region and thereby rising as a dominant regional power. Japan and nations in Southeast Asia (especially Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, which have increased their military ties with the US) are, on the other hand, looking at the US for balancing China’s rise and stabilizing regional security. India, on its part, is giving equal importance to confidence building with China and strengthening partnership with the US, besides getting closer to other regional powers with clout, like Japan, ASEAN etc. Especially, it does not want to be seen as belonging to any anti-China grouping; but it is clear that Beijing suspects New Delhi’s pro-US tilt. What is being witnessed in the ultimate sense is a Sino-US competition, complicating the regional geo-politics. Suffice it to conclude that all the major powers involved, the US, China, Japan and India face a heavy responsibility in creating the much-needed regional security architecture, acceptable to all sides.
(Based on paper presented by D .S. Rajan, at International Seminar on “ India and Asia-Pacific- Convergence and Divergence”, held at Tirupati, 13-15 October 2008, under the auspices of Sri Venkateswara University, Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh, India. He is the Director of Chennai Centre for China Studies, Chennai, India.Email: dsrajan@gmail.com)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] Speech of Chen Xiaogong, Assistant Chief of PLA General Staff at ARF Security Policy conference, Singapore, Xinhua, 8 May 2008.
[2] Speech of Lt Gen Ma Xiaotian, Deputy Chief of PLA General Staff at the 7th International IISS Shangrila Dialogue, Singapore, 31 May 2008
[3] President Hu Jintao’s speech at Boao Forum, Hainan, 12 April 2008,Xinhua, 13 April 2008
[4] ibid
[5] Japan Diplomatic Blue Book, 2008
[6] Speech of Japanese Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the 7th IISS Security Summit, Shangrila
Dialogue, Singapore, 31 May 2008
[7] “East Asia Insights”, Vol. 2, No. 2, April 2007, Article on “East Asia Community Building: toward an East Asia Security Forum”, by Hitoshi Tanaka, Senior Fellow, Japan Centre for International Exchange
[8] ‘China Daily’, 13 August 2008, quoting from a June 2008 statement of the ASEAN rotating Presidency.
[9] “ ASEAN and Asia’s Regional security Architecture”, Speech of Singapore Defence Minister Teo Chee Hean, at the Munich Conference of Security Policy, 10 February 2008
[10] Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s speech at Asia Society Australasia Centre, Sydney, 5 June 2008.
[11] The China Post, quoting Australian Prime Minister Rudd, 6 June 2008
[12] ibid, quoting PRC Foreign Ministry spokesperson Qin Gang.
[13] Speech of US Defence Secretary Robert Gates at the IISS Shangrila Dialogue, Singapore, 31 May 2008.
[14] Speech of Mr Pranab Mukherjee, India’s Minister for External Affairs, at Peking university, 6 June 2008,http://www.indianembassy.org.cn/Press/20080611-3.html
[15] China Daily, 13 August 2008.
[16] US Department of Defence website, also Peoples Daily, 6 August 2008
[17] White House Press Secretary, 7 August 2008
[18] Dr. Manmohan Singh’s speech at the Combined Commanders Conference, New Delhi, 24 October 2007
[19] Prof James Holmes, US – China Economic and Security Review Commission, US Naval War College, 14 June 2007
[20] ASEAN Secretary-General Ong Ken Yong, Bloomburg, 20 November 2007
A debate is now in progress among major Asia-Pacific nations on what should be the ultimate regional security architecture. This is happening at a time when fast-growing trade linkages and deepening cooperation through various integration mechanisms have already been transforming the region’s economic and political landscape. The debate itself certainly looks like a response to the rising impact on the region from a combination of traditional and non-traditional security threats; its objective is also becoming clear - progressing towards evolving a new security mechanism for the whole region, supplanting the existing various sub-regional groupings. In this process, the centrality, which the People’s Republic of China (PRC), a fast rising regional and global player, would occupy, may not be difficult to imagine.
Beijing’s emerging views of a regional architecture, as expected, are closely linked to its own security perceptions and it cannot be denied that the same is the case with other key Asia-Pacific powers, like Japan, ASEAN, Australia, the US and India. As views vary, intra-regional differences on the subject being noticed appear normal. However, it is important to see how the final picture will emerge. In the ensuing paragraphs, an attempt has been made to trace various positions and analyse their likely implications for the evolution of a regional security mechanism, acceptable to all concerned nations.
China
Beijing’s stated vision is to establish ‘harmony’ in Asia-Pacific region; to achieve this, it has proposed a regional security cooperation concept featuring ‘equality, mutual benefit, openness and practicality’ and according ‘due role’ to ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Security Policy Conferences. In its view, in parallel to the pursuit of such cooperation, the existing regional and sub-regional cooperation mechanisms need to be developed[1]. Seeking to explain its ‘harmony’ goal above in strategic terms, the PRC thinks that ‘ peace is a product of parity, balance of power and offensive and defensive strengths’ and that no action should be taken sacrificing security interest of one country while achieving security in other nations. In this context, it believes that there should be no expansion of military alliances and deployment of missile defence system in the region; ‘missile defence partnership in some areas would be detrimental to strategic balance, confidence building and regional stability’[2]. China also stresses the connectivity between regional security and its ‘new thinking’ on security, based on ‘mutual trust, mutual benefit, quality and coordination’[3]. It believes in the ‘non-exclusive’ nature of regional cooperation and in drawing on the development practices of other regions[4]
Japan
Japan’s official position is to accept the need for a ‘multilateral collective defence security mechanism’ in the Asia-Pacific region, similar to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) in Europe. Tokyo, at the same time, admits problems in this regard due to the existing ‘diversity in the region’s political and economic systems, cultures and ethnicities’. Under the circumstances, Japan seems to prefer a short-term approach aimed at ‘strengthening the existing multi-layer frameworks for bilateral and multilateral dialogue, while securing the presence and engagement of the US in the region’.[5] It gives emphasis on the ‘synergy between Japan-US Security alliance and Tokyo’s Asian diplomacy’. Japan also feels that the ‘balance of power’ factor could be significant in the changing regional security environment, but reaching ‘mutual understanding’ among countries concerned is essential in this regard. Tokyo does not treat China as a threat to Japan, but wants Beijing to enhance the transparency of its military capabilities and their purpose[6]. Some scholars in Japan have been more specific than the government on regional security mechanism. They have stressed the need for an “East Asia Security Forum” consisting of core states (ASEAN plus 6 including India, along with the US). The Forum, in their view, should reflect the principle of ‘inclusive multilateralism’ and ‘cooperative security’. On China, they recommend a ‘cautious’ Japanese engagement with that country, ‘predicated on traditional balance of power approach’ and for this purpose, foresee a ‘consolidation of strategic links between the four largest democratic states – Japan, India, Australia and the US.[7]
ASEAN
The ASEAN views itself as the ‘centre’ of the regional security architecture[8]. It visualizes the roles of a ‘facilitator’ and ‘honest broker’ to itself for the architecture, citing the reason that ASEAN nations enjoy a ‘pivotal geographic position’, providing a ‘neutral ground where powers with intersecting interests meet’. It hopes that the architecture could be shaped as the existing various structures like the East Asia Summits, Shangrila Dialogue and ASEAN Defence Ministers meetings, continue to evolve. The ASEAN identifies “three principles” to guide the development of an effective architecture- regional security is collective responsibility of all countries that have a stake in the region’s security, the architecture should be ‘open and inclusive’ and regional cooperation should be based on mutual respect and be in accordance with international law[9].
Australia
Australia stands for creation of an ‘Asia-Pacific Community’ by 2020, a body similar to the European Union, to span the entire region including itself, the US, Japan, China, India, Indonesia and other regional powers; it visualizes a charter for such Community -engaging in a ‘ a full spectrum of dialogue, cooperation and action in economic and political matters and future challenges relating to security’. Canberra’s concept has two premises- the global economic and strategic weight is shifting to Asia and the existing fora like ASEAN were not designed to promote cooperation across the entire region, due to the ‘greater diversity’ in the region’s political systems and economic structures[10]. It finds a remedy to the situation in the proposed Community which could ‘enhance the region’s “fragmented” security and political cooperation as well as help resolve a number of regional conflicts, including on Taiwan, Kashmir and North Korea.[11] China promptly welcomed the proposal by saying that the latter is in line with its hope for joint efforts in the region to ‘enhance exchanges and mutual political trust as well as deepen mutually beneficial cooperation, for achieving common development’[12].
The US
The US acknowledges the ‘provisional’ nature of efforts to find a new Asia-Pacific security architecture and welcomes the ASEAN leadership in this search. It assures continued commitment to the region as a ‘resident’ power as its ‘sovereign’ territory stretches from the Aleutian Islands to Guam in the Western Pacific. While discussions on a new security architecture progress further, Washington in the meantime, would like to institutionalise the various existing forums to deal with the ‘region- specific’ problems and depend on its ‘time-tested’ architecture involving ‘alliances’ (with Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Thailand) and “partner-nation capacity building” (with India and Vietnam), the latter being described as a ‘new thinking in US overall defence strategy’. As per the declared US benchmarks for building new security architecture, that process should not be a ‘zero sum game’ and exclusion of any single country would mean ignoring the reality of Asia’s security today. Besides, ‘the entire region should be treated as a single entity and that there should be no separate East Asian order’.[13]
India
In New Delhi’s formulations, Asian security cannot be looked in isolation from the region’s broader political and economic aspects. To accommodate Asia’s ‘diversity’, a ‘pluralistic security order’ based on a ‘cooperative’ approach is a must. Under such ‘polycentric’ security, each participant will have ‘equal stake and responsibility’. India believes that the order must be ‘open and inclusive’ and take into account the conditions prevailing in Asia. There should be no transplant of ideas from other parts of the world and any sub-regional security arrangements that are narrow and ultimately ineffective, should not be created. The building blocks for the new framework could be dialogue forums like ARF, Comprehensive International Cooperative Association (CICA) and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). [14]
Positional analysis
A comparative analysis of the positions of major Asia-Pacific players on the regional security architecture reveals divisions among them on the following issues:
· Participation of the US:
The term ‘open and inclusive’ is missing in Chinese formulations. By implication, it would mean Chinese wariness to the US participation in the architecture; this is despite Beijing’s support, albeit at its own terms, to the Australian proposal, which includes the US. On the other hand, a near-unanimity prevails among other nations on the US role. The US itself is against ‘any zero sum game’ and exclusion of any country in the region. It may not be happy with its existing exclusion from regional bodies like the East Asia Summit, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and India-China-Russia trilateral dialogue. Japan, on its part, is firm in backing the US ‘presence and engagement’ in the region. ASEAN, by insisting on ‘collective responsibility of all states that have a stake in the region’s security’, has indicated its approval to the US involvement. India’s formula of an ‘open and inclusive’ architecture, also reflects a stand welcoming the US.
· US alliances in Asia
The US and Japan on one side and China on the other, are clearly at odds at each other on the issue of American alliances in Asia. Washington’s emphasis on its ‘tested alliances’ in the region and Japan’s vision of ‘synergy between US-Japan alliance and Tokyo’s Asian diplomacy’ stand in contrast to Beijing’s perception that the US-led alliance in Asia is detrimental to ‘strategic balance’ in the region.
· Who should lead the architecture?
On this issue, India and Japan seem to be on the same side; India’s ‘polycentric’ approach matches with Japan’s line to set up a ‘multilateral collective security mechanism’. In comparison, ASEAN tends to stress its own ‘centrality’ in the architecture; Chinese formulations are silent on the subject; however, their mention of ‘parity’, ‘equality’ and ‘balance of power’ and prescription that the security of one nation should not be sacrificed while ensuring the security of others, reveal Beijing’s mind on the security order- the PRC should play a central role. Beijing and Tokyo desire a ‘balance of power’, but their interpretations are different. The PRC’s intention to play a ‘pre-eminent’ role is already visible; its declaration of support to the leadership of the ASEAN plus three (including the PRC) in matters of ASEAN Regional community, but with Beijing giving ‘long term and strategic guidance’, testifies the same.
· Learning from other models
Sino-Indian divergence is apparent on this subject. In matters of regional cooperation, China is in favour of learning from outside powers; India’s stand on the other hand is to build on an existing architecture taking into account the conditions in Asia, without any transplant of ideas from other parts of the world.
· Sub-regional security arrangements
India is against creation of any ‘ineffective sub-regional security arrangements’. This may raise a question on New Delhi’s attitude towards the ASEAN’s goal of forming a Regional Community by 2015, which has a security component. Also, India, China, Japan and the US approve in varying degrees the development of the existing sub-regional organizations, till a regional architecture emerges; there seems to be a subtle difference in Australia’s attitude on this account. Canberra considers such organisations including the ARF as incapable of fully addressing the problems of the entire region and on that basis, pitches for a regional mechanism.
Concerns-Vision connectivity
Differences in opinions are bound to surface in a debate. Important however would be to correlate the security concerns of each country with their respective positions on regional security architecture. Taking the case of Japan first, its perception of US alliance as key to face threats from China (mainly military modernization, resource development in East China sea), from Russia (unsettled territorial issue) and from North Korea (nuclear weapon programme) provides the underpinning for its vision of a regional order with US involvement.
ASEAN too, sees in US a security guarantor against impact from China-related potential conflicts (South China sea territorial disputes) and a balancing factor to China’s rise. This, along with threats from extremism and the contradiction between Islam and modernization in Southeast Asia, is influencing the ASEAN view of a regional security order. In regional forums where the US is not represented, ASEAN has been careful by opposing Chinese proposals likely to harm US interests. For e.g, it did not accept Beijing’s offer to join the Southeast Asia Nuclear Free Zone, which excludes the US.
For Australia, the priority for the new government led by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is to act as a balancer of relations with China and the West and accordingly, his “Asia-Pacific Community” concept is being seen as an effort to create an institution providing for checks and balances among major powers. While alliance with the US continues to be important for it, Canberra is increasingly eyeing the economic benefits coming out of cementing relations with Beijing. China has become important for Australia for mining and agriculture exports and it has emerged as Australia’s second largest trading partner. Japan and ASEAN, on their parts, are cool to Rudd’s idea. Prime Minister Fukuda took no notice of the idea during Rudd’s visit to his country, instead he emphasized on the roles of Japan and ASEAN in Asia-Pacific. ASEAN is of the view that Rudd has deviated from the principles of his predecessor over regional integration. The re-assurance later of Prime Minister Rudd that ASEAN would continue to be the ‘core’ of existing regional architecture [15] has not been sufficient enough to clear the air.
The US perceptions of a global and regional security order are also linked with its views on the emerging world and Asia-Pacific security scenarios. In this regard, the challenges being perceived by Washington concern Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Russia globally and China, Myanmar and North Korea regionally. The 2008 ‘US National Defense Strategy’ identifies terrorism (Iraq and Afghanistan) as the main global threat and as a shift from strategy adopted so far to deal with that, focus being given to the use of both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ power. China and Russia have been listed as powers which have ‘potentials’ to challenge the US-led international order. The US will strive to establish partnership with the two. But Washington will ‘hedge against Beijing’s growing military modernization and impact of its strategic choices on international security’. US interaction with China will be for long term and multidimensional.[16]. In Asia-Pacific, the US stated goal is to form “ a new Asia-Pacific Democratic Partnership”.[17]
India’s profile in the Asia-Pacific region is increasing as a result of its Look East Policy the scope of which now stands extended to wider East Asia and Pacific basin. New Delhi feels that this, coupled with growing inter-dependence between the nations, have widened India’s responsibility in the region. In its view, the nature and scope of trans-border threats are rising and issues relating to climatic change and food and energy security are also becoming important[18]. To meet the main challenges of border, maritime security and energy security, India is building its own leverages in the region; it is taking active steps like holding talks on border with China, conducting active maritime diplomacy and carrying out energy cooperation. The fact that India has become a factor in the Asia-Pacific balance of power cannot be disputed; however, a rivalry between New Delhi and Beijing seems implicit in this process. Herein lies the real meaning of New Delhi’s ‘polycentric’ approach to regional security architecture.
China’s role will be the key to setting up of a regional architecture. The current picture points to a situation of ‘Beijing versus the rest’. It is because of the significant differences between its stand and that of other nations. China’s regional security concerns, as can be seen from various official documents and pronouncements, relate to ‘still not properly solved territorial and maritime disputes, Taiwan issue, the ‘ three evils’ of terrorism, ethnic separatism and religious extremism and threats to sea lanes of communication. Beijing also sees challenges in the US alliances and deployment of missile systems in the region, weaponisation of outer space and nuclear proliferation. It looks at with strong suspicions the US role in the region, particularly its ties with Japan and India as reflecting attempts to ‘contain’ China. The quadrilateral concept of ‘alliance of democracies’ (Japan, Australia, US and India) and the joint ‘Malabar’ military exercises by these nations have been the principal Chinese targets. Beijing also thinks that the Indo-US civil nuclear cooperation agreement is against the interests of the international non-proliferation regime and that India’s nuclear programme is a security threat for China.
Signs of China’s hesitation to give a leading role to India in regional integration are not difficult to see. For e.g, India’s regional cooperation policy is being criticised by China for its alleged aim to control the Malacca straits. [19] On formation of the proposed ASEAN Regional Community also, Beijing visualises no role for India[20]; it instead wants to play a ‘guiding’ role to ASEAN plus 3 in this regard. Regarding East Asia summits, the PRC is only willing to accept India (also Australia and New Zealand) as ‘outsider’ member. The Chinese position being seen on India runs counter to what President Hu Jintao said in India (November 2006) – “ Both China and India positively view each others’ participation in Asian inter- regional, regional and sub-regional cooperation process”. It is not surprising that concerns of Beijing as above, are finding an echo in the Chinese vision for a regional architecture.
Conclusion
The PRC appears to believe that its concerns can effectively be dealt with only by a security order led by it; this despite its ‘rhetoric’ on ‘equality and parity’ in the order. Beijing, in this regard, sees the US as principal challenger and this imposes on China the necessity to have an Asia-Pacific strategy aimed at limiting the US power and influence in the region and thereby rising as a dominant regional power. Japan and nations in Southeast Asia (especially Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, which have increased their military ties with the US) are, on the other hand, looking at the US for balancing China’s rise and stabilizing regional security. India, on its part, is giving equal importance to confidence building with China and strengthening partnership with the US, besides getting closer to other regional powers with clout, like Japan, ASEAN etc. Especially, it does not want to be seen as belonging to any anti-China grouping; but it is clear that Beijing suspects New Delhi’s pro-US tilt. What is being witnessed in the ultimate sense is a Sino-US competition, complicating the regional geo-politics. Suffice it to conclude that all the major powers involved, the US, China, Japan and India face a heavy responsibility in creating the much-needed regional security architecture, acceptable to all sides.
(Based on paper presented by D .S. Rajan, at International Seminar on “ India and Asia-Pacific- Convergence and Divergence”, held at Tirupati, 13-15 October 2008, under the auspices of Sri Venkateswara University, Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh, India. He is the Director of Chennai Centre for China Studies, Chennai, India.Email: dsrajan@gmail.com)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] Speech of Chen Xiaogong, Assistant Chief of PLA General Staff at ARF Security Policy conference, Singapore, Xinhua, 8 May 2008.
[2] Speech of Lt Gen Ma Xiaotian, Deputy Chief of PLA General Staff at the 7th International IISS Shangrila Dialogue, Singapore, 31 May 2008
[3] President Hu Jintao’s speech at Boao Forum, Hainan, 12 April 2008,Xinhua, 13 April 2008
[4] ibid
[5] Japan Diplomatic Blue Book, 2008
[6] Speech of Japanese Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the 7th IISS Security Summit, Shangrila
Dialogue, Singapore, 31 May 2008
[7] “East Asia Insights”, Vol. 2, No. 2, April 2007, Article on “East Asia Community Building: toward an East Asia Security Forum”, by Hitoshi Tanaka, Senior Fellow, Japan Centre for International Exchange
[8] ‘China Daily’, 13 August 2008, quoting from a June 2008 statement of the ASEAN rotating Presidency.
[9] “ ASEAN and Asia’s Regional security Architecture”, Speech of Singapore Defence Minister Teo Chee Hean, at the Munich Conference of Security Policy, 10 February 2008
[10] Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s speech at Asia Society Australasia Centre, Sydney, 5 June 2008.
[11] The China Post, quoting Australian Prime Minister Rudd, 6 June 2008
[12] ibid, quoting PRC Foreign Ministry spokesperson Qin Gang.
[13] Speech of US Defence Secretary Robert Gates at the IISS Shangrila Dialogue, Singapore, 31 May 2008.
[14] Speech of Mr Pranab Mukherjee, India’s Minister for External Affairs, at Peking university, 6 June 2008,http://www.indianembassy.org.cn/Press/20080611-3.html
[15] China Daily, 13 August 2008.
[16] US Department of Defence website, also Peoples Daily, 6 August 2008
[17] White House Press Secretary, 7 August 2008
[18] Dr. Manmohan Singh’s speech at the Combined Commanders Conference, New Delhi, 24 October 2007
[19] Prof James Holmes, US – China Economic and Security Review Commission, US Naval War College, 14 June 2007
[20] ASEAN Secretary-General Ong Ken Yong, Bloomburg, 20 November 2007
Synchronized Dive into Recession
Focus on Damage Limitation
This paper examines the meltdown of the global financial system that almost brought the world economy to a halt in late September 2008. It looks at the roots of the recession among leading OECD economies and at its implications for the rest of the world. The author pays particular attention to China and its changed role in the global economy. The author argues that the 2008 crisis will require substantial, persistent and coordinated global efforts to turn around – possibly including more extraordinary "out-of-the-box" measures.
© 2008 The Royal Institute of International Affairs
Download:
English (PDF · 8 pages · 239 KB)
Author: Vanessa Rossi
Series: Chatham House Briefing Papers
Publisher: Chatham House, London, United Kingdom
This paper examines the meltdown of the global financial system that almost brought the world economy to a halt in late September 2008. It looks at the roots of the recession among leading OECD economies and at its implications for the rest of the world. The author pays particular attention to China and its changed role in the global economy. The author argues that the 2008 crisis will require substantial, persistent and coordinated global efforts to turn around – possibly including more extraordinary "out-of-the-box" measures.
© 2008 The Royal Institute of International Affairs
Download:
English (PDF · 8 pages · 239 KB)
Author: Vanessa Rossi
Series: Chatham House Briefing Papers
Publisher: Chatham House, London, United Kingdom
Anti-Americanism and the election Anti-American poster, "Yankee Go Home"
23 Oct 2008
There are many issues which explain the reality of global anti-Americanism. While huge numbers of words have been expended explaining anti-Americanism in the current presidential campaign, these have shed little light.
By Michael Radu for FPRI
Among the many criticisms made of the Bush administration is that its policies have left America isolated and given it a bad image in the world that needs radical repair. What is not being said is that there are many issues which explain the reality of global anti-Americanism. While huge numbers of words have been expended “explaining” anti-Americanism in the current presidential campaign, these have shed little light. A reality check is needed.
It is true that anti-Americanism has become the only serious competitor to soccer as a global sport; that in many places it has reached a level of stridency rarely seen before; and that it has roots much older than the presidency of George W Bush. Beyond that, however, to look at the causes and manifestations of the phenomenon one has to make certain key distinctions, often missed, more often than not on purpose.
The most immediately evident is the relationship between the end of the Cold War and the growth of negative attitudes toward the United States. Prior to the Soviet collapse, national interest for those on the anticommunist side in what used to be called the third world demanded a muting of ill feelings toward the only available protector - Washington.
Today, what could be described as nationalist or leftist parties in Europe, from Spain to Greece to France, and Islamist regimes elsewhere can both afford to be openly anti-American as well; hence the growth of that sentiment in increasingly nationalistic Turkey, the Philippines, and Korea, and its persistence in Paris, London and Berlin. In the latter case, the present global financial crisis only adds another (false) argument against “American” capitalism, never mind that Europe is in worse financial shape. In Latin America, which is now going through one of its cyclical love affairs with leftism and populism, the story is simpler still. For a Chavez, Correa or Morales to be anti-American goes naturally with being statist, incompetent, and strident.
(Western) Europe is the most oft-mentioned case of our allies turning against us because of our wrong-headed policies and arrogant behavior. But, as in Latin America, among elites, hostility to the United States is old hat - over a century old in the case of France, the intellectual leader of Europe. It is hostility against the uncivilized big upstart from across the ocean (hence the derision of “cowboys” Reagan and Bush); envy and, yes, resentment toward the liberators of an impotent Europe in 1945. For many on the European Right America is a threat to national identity (see Jean-Marie Le Pen in France), its free-wheeling capitalism a competitor to statism, and more generally a symbol of a globalization feared by nationalists everywhere.
In Russia the growing and very popular anti-Americanism is part and parcel of the resurgence of Moscow’s imperial ambitions, with Washington being seen as the principal obstacle to the fulfillment of those ambitions.
In the Islamic world the very same civilizational decline and frustration that made al-Qaida possible and still helps its appeal grow in places like Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh makes the United States - the most present and thus painful symbol of Muslim economic, political and cultural backwardness - a natural scapegoat, at both elite and mass levels. In some ways this is the same game as in Latin America: encourage hatred for the big foreigner to distract attention from the local abusive ruler who, at least, is one of your own. It is also less than surprising that some Arab elites are hopeful for a new Cold War, which would allow their regimes to play the ugly American against the admittedly infidel but friendly (and full of promises and cheap guns) Russians.
One of the causes of the spreading of anti-Americanism in Europe and the Islamic world is its association with anti-Semitism. The two are joined at the hip by the same glue of impotence and envy. Unable to destroy Israel, Islamists blame America for supporting it because that is easier than admitting their own disunity and backwardness. Many among the European elites, and some populists, also blame “Zionism” (often a code word for Israel) for both the problems of the Middle East and, more recently, for their own countries’ problems with the masses of Muslim immigrants. Of course, as everyone “knows,” Israel is still around only because Jews control Washington’s policies - on this there is a meeting of the minds between jihadis and the ultra-secular “progressives.”
In many places, Latin America and some European countries among them, there is a distinct difference between elite anti-Americanism and popular indifference or even friendship toward the Americans and even their government. That is the only logical explanation why elected leaders Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel, Silvio Berlusconi or Gordon Brown - none of whom are anti-American - are leaders of their important countries. As for Eastern Europe and Africa, the two areas where anti-Americanism does not thrive (yet?), there are good reasons for this. When countries were treated as Russian/Soviet colonies and denied national identity in the name of a “proletarian internationalism”enforced by tanks, neither socialism nor hostility to the values represented by the United States can easily take root. And when the United States has never been present as a colonial power and is the main aid donor, Africans have little incentive to hate Americans.
Many conservatives, President Bush among them, complain that anti-Americanism is due to ignorance and America’s ineffectiveness in making its case. They are wrong on all counts. America is known throughout the world, but it is the wrong America, that of its native critics and enemies, that is known: Hollywood movies obsessed with hatred for capitalism, the military and the CIA; Noam Chomsky and Michael Moore’s obsessive hatred of ordinary Americans and their elected representatives; idiotic rappers; and guilt-ridden academics.
And then there is the old schizophrenia of America’s views of the world. The world is or it should be like us, but we do not particularly like to interfere, to be “ global policemen,” especially when it costs too much. In their own differently misguided and arrogant ways, both President Bush and the militant “human rights” activists pursue the same kind of moral imperialism: the former with his dangerous understanding of democracy as a vital and universal commodity for export - whether there is a market for it or not, and the latter by promoting the thinking of Vermont or California “progressive” judges as “international standards.”
This moral imperialism is as inappropriate as it is resented elsewhere. There is also the naive but so American belief that being the biggest donors of foreign aid - public and private - should result in the foreigners being grateful. Unsurprisingly, that does not happen - not in Sumatra, Egypt, Jordan or Pakistan - because American aid is taken as natural or, more often than not, is seen as a form of ”reparations” for past, mostly imaginary, sins.
None of those complaining about America’s bad image in the world or its (occasional) lack of allied support ever ask an important question: is it possible, just possible, that in at least some issues (think Iran) America may be right and the mythical “international community” wrong? When President Bush stated that on the issue of terrorism there are only two possible positions - for or against - he was accused of unilateralism and arrogance. But we are never told what would be a third position!
For many years the sophisticated Europeans have engaged in negotiations with Iran, with U.S. support. The result is that Iran is now closer than ever to becoming a nuclear power. Could it be that the Europeans have replaced real diplomacy - one based on real power - with talks intended to obscure their absolute lack of both will and capabilities? Could it be that our European allies’ clinging on United Nations’ blessings for any action are supported by a very fragile reed indeed - one that is dependent on the approval of Moscow and Beijing? That the UN, far from being the necessary source of international law, is the collective voice of a majority of countries who are neither democratic nor restrained by any law? Given these realities, is the United States’ occasionally taking action without UN approval wrong?
Anti-Americanism will continue to thrive unless the American public understands the problem - an unlikely prospect considering our educational establishment’s encouragement of national guilt. One of the most important, if not the most important, reasons for this is that it is largely cost-free. It is the Bush White House that is criticized at home for shunning Europe’s most vocal anti-American leader, Spain’s Jose Luis RodrÃguez Zapatero, the critics implying that Washington should turn the other cheek.
Another question that is never posed is what if the US invasion of Iraq had been successful and very brief, rather than mishandled, costly and protracted. Would anti-Americanism, at least that version using Iraq as a pretext, be stronger or much weaker, rooted in the ignorant masses or just a handful of isolated pseudo-intellectuals?
Anti-Americanism is both a real and a global phenomenon. It has to be dealt with, in the long term, by engaging in realistic policies and attracting allies, not by masochistic exercises, public relations gimmicks, or unilateral concessions. The Michael Moore/Sean Penn/Noam Chomskys in this country are just an irritation here and abroad; to actively seek an accommodation with various foreign anti-American forces in order to make the United States “loved” would be a disaster.
The United States, like other countries, seeks good feelings abroad, but the promotion of our interests remains paramount, based on respect and even fear rather than “love.” It is time to become serious - even during a presidential campaign.
Michael Radu, Ph D, is Co-Chair of FPRI's Center on Terrorism, Counter-Terrorism, and Homeland Security. He is currently at work on a book on Islamism in Europe.
Publisher
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
There are many issues which explain the reality of global anti-Americanism. While huge numbers of words have been expended explaining anti-Americanism in the current presidential campaign, these have shed little light.
By Michael Radu for FPRI
Among the many criticisms made of the Bush administration is that its policies have left America isolated and given it a bad image in the world that needs radical repair. What is not being said is that there are many issues which explain the reality of global anti-Americanism. While huge numbers of words have been expended “explaining” anti-Americanism in the current presidential campaign, these have shed little light. A reality check is needed.
It is true that anti-Americanism has become the only serious competitor to soccer as a global sport; that in many places it has reached a level of stridency rarely seen before; and that it has roots much older than the presidency of George W Bush. Beyond that, however, to look at the causes and manifestations of the phenomenon one has to make certain key distinctions, often missed, more often than not on purpose.
The most immediately evident is the relationship between the end of the Cold War and the growth of negative attitudes toward the United States. Prior to the Soviet collapse, national interest for those on the anticommunist side in what used to be called the third world demanded a muting of ill feelings toward the only available protector - Washington.
Today, what could be described as nationalist or leftist parties in Europe, from Spain to Greece to France, and Islamist regimes elsewhere can both afford to be openly anti-American as well; hence the growth of that sentiment in increasingly nationalistic Turkey, the Philippines, and Korea, and its persistence in Paris, London and Berlin. In the latter case, the present global financial crisis only adds another (false) argument against “American” capitalism, never mind that Europe is in worse financial shape. In Latin America, which is now going through one of its cyclical love affairs with leftism and populism, the story is simpler still. For a Chavez, Correa or Morales to be anti-American goes naturally with being statist, incompetent, and strident.
(Western) Europe is the most oft-mentioned case of our allies turning against us because of our wrong-headed policies and arrogant behavior. But, as in Latin America, among elites, hostility to the United States is old hat - over a century old in the case of France, the intellectual leader of Europe. It is hostility against the uncivilized big upstart from across the ocean (hence the derision of “cowboys” Reagan and Bush); envy and, yes, resentment toward the liberators of an impotent Europe in 1945. For many on the European Right America is a threat to national identity (see Jean-Marie Le Pen in France), its free-wheeling capitalism a competitor to statism, and more generally a symbol of a globalization feared by nationalists everywhere.
In Russia the growing and very popular anti-Americanism is part and parcel of the resurgence of Moscow’s imperial ambitions, with Washington being seen as the principal obstacle to the fulfillment of those ambitions.
In the Islamic world the very same civilizational decline and frustration that made al-Qaida possible and still helps its appeal grow in places like Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh makes the United States - the most present and thus painful symbol of Muslim economic, political and cultural backwardness - a natural scapegoat, at both elite and mass levels. In some ways this is the same game as in Latin America: encourage hatred for the big foreigner to distract attention from the local abusive ruler who, at least, is one of your own. It is also less than surprising that some Arab elites are hopeful for a new Cold War, which would allow their regimes to play the ugly American against the admittedly infidel but friendly (and full of promises and cheap guns) Russians.
One of the causes of the spreading of anti-Americanism in Europe and the Islamic world is its association with anti-Semitism. The two are joined at the hip by the same glue of impotence and envy. Unable to destroy Israel, Islamists blame America for supporting it because that is easier than admitting their own disunity and backwardness. Many among the European elites, and some populists, also blame “Zionism” (often a code word for Israel) for both the problems of the Middle East and, more recently, for their own countries’ problems with the masses of Muslim immigrants. Of course, as everyone “knows,” Israel is still around only because Jews control Washington’s policies - on this there is a meeting of the minds between jihadis and the ultra-secular “progressives.”
In many places, Latin America and some European countries among them, there is a distinct difference between elite anti-Americanism and popular indifference or even friendship toward the Americans and even their government. That is the only logical explanation why elected leaders Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel, Silvio Berlusconi or Gordon Brown - none of whom are anti-American - are leaders of their important countries. As for Eastern Europe and Africa, the two areas where anti-Americanism does not thrive (yet?), there are good reasons for this. When countries were treated as Russian/Soviet colonies and denied national identity in the name of a “proletarian internationalism”enforced by tanks, neither socialism nor hostility to the values represented by the United States can easily take root. And when the United States has never been present as a colonial power and is the main aid donor, Africans have little incentive to hate Americans.
Many conservatives, President Bush among them, complain that anti-Americanism is due to ignorance and America’s ineffectiveness in making its case. They are wrong on all counts. America is known throughout the world, but it is the wrong America, that of its native critics and enemies, that is known: Hollywood movies obsessed with hatred for capitalism, the military and the CIA; Noam Chomsky and Michael Moore’s obsessive hatred of ordinary Americans and their elected representatives; idiotic rappers; and guilt-ridden academics.
And then there is the old schizophrenia of America’s views of the world. The world is or it should be like us, but we do not particularly like to interfere, to be “ global policemen,” especially when it costs too much. In their own differently misguided and arrogant ways, both President Bush and the militant “human rights” activists pursue the same kind of moral imperialism: the former with his dangerous understanding of democracy as a vital and universal commodity for export - whether there is a market for it or not, and the latter by promoting the thinking of Vermont or California “progressive” judges as “international standards.”
This moral imperialism is as inappropriate as it is resented elsewhere. There is also the naive but so American belief that being the biggest donors of foreign aid - public and private - should result in the foreigners being grateful. Unsurprisingly, that does not happen - not in Sumatra, Egypt, Jordan or Pakistan - because American aid is taken as natural or, more often than not, is seen as a form of ”reparations” for past, mostly imaginary, sins.
None of those complaining about America’s bad image in the world or its (occasional) lack of allied support ever ask an important question: is it possible, just possible, that in at least some issues (think Iran) America may be right and the mythical “international community” wrong? When President Bush stated that on the issue of terrorism there are only two possible positions - for or against - he was accused of unilateralism and arrogance. But we are never told what would be a third position!
For many years the sophisticated Europeans have engaged in negotiations with Iran, with U.S. support. The result is that Iran is now closer than ever to becoming a nuclear power. Could it be that the Europeans have replaced real diplomacy - one based on real power - with talks intended to obscure their absolute lack of both will and capabilities? Could it be that our European allies’ clinging on United Nations’ blessings for any action are supported by a very fragile reed indeed - one that is dependent on the approval of Moscow and Beijing? That the UN, far from being the necessary source of international law, is the collective voice of a majority of countries who are neither democratic nor restrained by any law? Given these realities, is the United States’ occasionally taking action without UN approval wrong?
Anti-Americanism will continue to thrive unless the American public understands the problem - an unlikely prospect considering our educational establishment’s encouragement of national guilt. One of the most important, if not the most important, reasons for this is that it is largely cost-free. It is the Bush White House that is criticized at home for shunning Europe’s most vocal anti-American leader, Spain’s Jose Luis RodrÃguez Zapatero, the critics implying that Washington should turn the other cheek.
Another question that is never posed is what if the US invasion of Iraq had been successful and very brief, rather than mishandled, costly and protracted. Would anti-Americanism, at least that version using Iraq as a pretext, be stronger or much weaker, rooted in the ignorant masses or just a handful of isolated pseudo-intellectuals?
Anti-Americanism is both a real and a global phenomenon. It has to be dealt with, in the long term, by engaging in realistic policies and attracting allies, not by masochistic exercises, public relations gimmicks, or unilateral concessions. The Michael Moore/Sean Penn/Noam Chomskys in this country are just an irritation here and abroad; to actively seek an accommodation with various foreign anti-American forces in order to make the United States “loved” would be a disaster.
The United States, like other countries, seeks good feelings abroad, but the promotion of our interests remains paramount, based on respect and even fear rather than “love.” It is time to become serious - even during a presidential campaign.
Michael Radu, Ph D, is Co-Chair of FPRI's Center on Terrorism, Counter-Terrorism, and Homeland Security. He is currently at work on a book on Islamism in Europe.
Publisher
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
ANTI-MUSLIM REPRISAL TERRORISM?
B.RAMAN
"Some sections of the Muslim community suspected that this attack ----like the other attacks targeting members of their community--- must have been the responsibility of Hindu extremist elements. There was no basis for their suspicions, but they persist. The only way of removing their suspicions is through a thorough investigation and the definitive identification of all those involved. The many missing links in the investigation of this strike as well as in the terrorist attack on the Mumbai suburban trains should be a cause for concern. Targeted attacks on innocent Muslims by Al Qaeda and other jihadi organizations is nothing new. Such attacks take place often in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. But, in those countries, the attacks on Muslim civilians are generally due to one of two factors. Either the targeted Muslims belonged to a rival sect (Sunni vs Shia or Deobandi vs Barelvi) or rival organization or were perceived as collaborators of the Government and hence apostates. None of these factors applied in the case of the Muslims----Indians and Pakistanis--- who were traveling by the Samjotha Express. The conventional wisdom was that the Muslims were now being deliberately targeted by the jihadi organizations in order to provoke them against the Government and the Hindus. I do not subscribe to this wisdom. It is important to keep an open mind while investigating these targeted attacks on Indian Muslims and one should not jump to the conclusion that the LET or the HUJI must have been involved. We owe it to our Muslims, most of whom have kept away from Al Qaeda and other pan-Islamic organizations, to see that these cases of targeted attacks on Muslims are thoroughly investigated instead of coming to a facile conclusion that jihadi organizations must be behind them. "-----My comments on the terrorist strike in the Samjotha Express in my book "Terrorism---Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow" published in June,2008, by the Lancer Publishers of New Delhi (www.lancerpublishers.com )
"While there are grounds for suspecting that the blast of Delhi and those of Agartala might have been carried out by the IM ( Indian Mujahideen) and its associates from the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) in Delhi and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) of Bangladesh in Agartala, the blasts in Modasa and Malegaon seem to stand apart. Though the Gujarat Police are reported to have detained some members of the Students' Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) during their investigation of the Modasa blast, the Modasa and Malegaon blasts do not carry any unique signature. More evidence will be required before one could analyse as to who might have been responsible. "----From my article of October 2,2008, titled "Mushrooming Terrorism: Now Agartala" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers29/paper2866.html
--------------------
In the last three years, we have had at least seven terrorist strikes in different parts of the country in which the perpetrators seemed to have targeted innocent Muslim civilians. Those seemed to be not indiscriminate attacks on all civilians, but targeted attacks on Muslims. There were two such incidents in Malegaon in Maharashtra and one each in New Delhi, Hyderabad, in the Ajmer Sharif in Rajasthan, in the Samjotha Express to Pakistan and in Modasa in Gujarat.
2. On the basis of the available reports, I had myself stated after five of these strikes---- but not after the Malegaon and Modasa incidents of September 29,2008--- that they seemed to have been carried out by terrorists belonging to jihadi terrorist organisations. I had also referred to instances of jihadi terrorists deliberately targeting innocent Muslims in many countries in pursuit of their agenda.
3. Some months after the Ajmer Sharif incident, a young Muslim officer of the Indian Police Service (IPS) had met me privately and expressed his doubts as to whether Muslims would have been involved in these incidents. He strongly believed that no Muslim however extremist he might be and to whichever jihadi organisation he belonged would have planted a bomb in or near the Ajmer Sharif.
4.I did not feel convinced, but felt somewhat troubled by what he said. I felt that as a senior (though now retired) officer of the IPS, I owed it to him and other young Muslim officers of the IPS to take note of what he said and re-open my mind. It was in pursuance of this that I made the above-mentioned observations in my book.
5. Who carried out the pre-September 29,2008, terrorist strikes, which seemed to have mainly targeted innocent Muslims? Where they the acts of the usual jihadi organisations or are they the precursor to acts of reprisal terrorism against members of the Muslim community by some irrational elements in the Hindu community? These questions, which were already being raised by sections of the public----Muslims as well as non-Muslims--- even before September 29, have re-surfaced following the publication or dissemination by some sections of the media of reports claiming that the Anti-Terrorism Cell (ATS) of the Mumbai Police have detained three Hindus in connection with their investigation into the recent Malegon blasts. The ATS itself has neither officially denied nor confirmed these reports.
6. The matter is in the initial stages of the investigation. To instil confidence in our Muslim community, the ATS should see that the investigation against these Hindus and any others associated with them is carried out thoroughly irrespective of their organisational affiliation. Religion is not a mitigating factor in deciding on the culpability of a person suspected of involvement in a criminal act. If they are proved to have participated in the acts of terrorism in Malegain and Modesa, the fact that they are Hindus would not make them any the less criminal or terrorist.
7.Indian criminal laws----the Indian Penal Code, the Indian Evidence Act and the Criminal Procedure Code--- do not talk of the majority or the minorities or even of Indian citizens or foreigners. Their provisions apply to anyone who commits an offence in Indian territory---whether he or she is an Indian national or a foreigner, whatever be his or her religion, language or ethnicity. The arrested persons must be investigated and proceeded against without worrying about their background or organisational affiliation.
8. Do these arrests strengthen the case for a ban on the Bajrang Dal or any other organisation to which they might have belonged? Or do they at least call for a characterisation of such orgainsations----even if they be of Hindus---as terrorist organisations? To characterise an organisation as a terrorist organisation and to take legal action against it ----and not merely against its members---- two types of evidence are required. Firstly, that its constitution or manifesto advocates the resort to violence amounting to terrorism for achieving its objective. Secondly, that it has been involved in repeated acts of pre-meditated violene which amount to terrorism. One has to wait and see whether such evidence surfaces during the investigation. ( 24-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India,New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
"Some sections of the Muslim community suspected that this attack ----like the other attacks targeting members of their community--- must have been the responsibility of Hindu extremist elements. There was no basis for their suspicions, but they persist. The only way of removing their suspicions is through a thorough investigation and the definitive identification of all those involved. The many missing links in the investigation of this strike as well as in the terrorist attack on the Mumbai suburban trains should be a cause for concern. Targeted attacks on innocent Muslims by Al Qaeda and other jihadi organizations is nothing new. Such attacks take place often in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. But, in those countries, the attacks on Muslim civilians are generally due to one of two factors. Either the targeted Muslims belonged to a rival sect (Sunni vs Shia or Deobandi vs Barelvi) or rival organization or were perceived as collaborators of the Government and hence apostates. None of these factors applied in the case of the Muslims----Indians and Pakistanis--- who were traveling by the Samjotha Express. The conventional wisdom was that the Muslims were now being deliberately targeted by the jihadi organizations in order to provoke them against the Government and the Hindus. I do not subscribe to this wisdom. It is important to keep an open mind while investigating these targeted attacks on Indian Muslims and one should not jump to the conclusion that the LET or the HUJI must have been involved. We owe it to our Muslims, most of whom have kept away from Al Qaeda and other pan-Islamic organizations, to see that these cases of targeted attacks on Muslims are thoroughly investigated instead of coming to a facile conclusion that jihadi organizations must be behind them. "-----My comments on the terrorist strike in the Samjotha Express in my book "Terrorism---Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow" published in June,2008, by the Lancer Publishers of New Delhi (www.lancerpublishers.com )
"While there are grounds for suspecting that the blast of Delhi and those of Agartala might have been carried out by the IM ( Indian Mujahideen) and its associates from the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) in Delhi and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) of Bangladesh in Agartala, the blasts in Modasa and Malegaon seem to stand apart. Though the Gujarat Police are reported to have detained some members of the Students' Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) during their investigation of the Modasa blast, the Modasa and Malegaon blasts do not carry any unique signature. More evidence will be required before one could analyse as to who might have been responsible. "----From my article of October 2,2008, titled "Mushrooming Terrorism: Now Agartala" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers29/paper2866.html
--------------------
In the last three years, we have had at least seven terrorist strikes in different parts of the country in which the perpetrators seemed to have targeted innocent Muslim civilians. Those seemed to be not indiscriminate attacks on all civilians, but targeted attacks on Muslims. There were two such incidents in Malegaon in Maharashtra and one each in New Delhi, Hyderabad, in the Ajmer Sharif in Rajasthan, in the Samjotha Express to Pakistan and in Modasa in Gujarat.
2. On the basis of the available reports, I had myself stated after five of these strikes---- but not after the Malegaon and Modasa incidents of September 29,2008--- that they seemed to have been carried out by terrorists belonging to jihadi terrorist organisations. I had also referred to instances of jihadi terrorists deliberately targeting innocent Muslims in many countries in pursuit of their agenda.
3. Some months after the Ajmer Sharif incident, a young Muslim officer of the Indian Police Service (IPS) had met me privately and expressed his doubts as to whether Muslims would have been involved in these incidents. He strongly believed that no Muslim however extremist he might be and to whichever jihadi organisation he belonged would have planted a bomb in or near the Ajmer Sharif.
4.I did not feel convinced, but felt somewhat troubled by what he said. I felt that as a senior (though now retired) officer of the IPS, I owed it to him and other young Muslim officers of the IPS to take note of what he said and re-open my mind. It was in pursuance of this that I made the above-mentioned observations in my book.
5. Who carried out the pre-September 29,2008, terrorist strikes, which seemed to have mainly targeted innocent Muslims? Where they the acts of the usual jihadi organisations or are they the precursor to acts of reprisal terrorism against members of the Muslim community by some irrational elements in the Hindu community? These questions, which were already being raised by sections of the public----Muslims as well as non-Muslims--- even before September 29, have re-surfaced following the publication or dissemination by some sections of the media of reports claiming that the Anti-Terrorism Cell (ATS) of the Mumbai Police have detained three Hindus in connection with their investigation into the recent Malegon blasts. The ATS itself has neither officially denied nor confirmed these reports.
6. The matter is in the initial stages of the investigation. To instil confidence in our Muslim community, the ATS should see that the investigation against these Hindus and any others associated with them is carried out thoroughly irrespective of their organisational affiliation. Religion is not a mitigating factor in deciding on the culpability of a person suspected of involvement in a criminal act. If they are proved to have participated in the acts of terrorism in Malegain and Modesa, the fact that they are Hindus would not make them any the less criminal or terrorist.
7.Indian criminal laws----the Indian Penal Code, the Indian Evidence Act and the Criminal Procedure Code--- do not talk of the majority or the minorities or even of Indian citizens or foreigners. Their provisions apply to anyone who commits an offence in Indian territory---whether he or she is an Indian national or a foreigner, whatever be his or her religion, language or ethnicity. The arrested persons must be investigated and proceeded against without worrying about their background or organisational affiliation.
8. Do these arrests strengthen the case for a ban on the Bajrang Dal or any other organisation to which they might have belonged? Or do they at least call for a characterisation of such orgainsations----even if they be of Hindus---as terrorist organisations? To characterise an organisation as a terrorist organisation and to take legal action against it ----and not merely against its members---- two types of evidence are required. Firstly, that its constitution or manifesto advocates the resort to violence amounting to terrorism for achieving its objective. Secondly, that it has been involved in repeated acts of pre-meditated violene which amount to terrorism. One has to wait and see whether such evidence surfaces during the investigation. ( 24-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India,New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
October 22, 2008
Missionaries are Colonialists
Gregory F. Fegel
Pravda, RUSSIA
Christian missionaries make no secret of the fact that they use medical services, education, and employment opportunities to lure impoverished indigenous populations throughout the world into conversion to Christianity.
The religious and cultural Imperialism performed by missionaries nearly always goes hand-in-hand with political and economic Imperialism. Christian missionaries often work in partnership with the CIA, with the US government, and with wealthy corporations to subvert the religion, the culture, the economy, and the politics of vulnerable indigenous populations. The CIA often uses planes owned by Christian missionary organizations and flown by Christian missionary pilots to smuggle drugs, arms, and prisoners.
According to the popular and scholarly history of Christianity, the early Christian Church found its greatest appeal and attracted its greatest number of converts from the poor people of the Roman Empire. The early Christian churches raised money through a tithe, or ten per cent income tax, levied on their members, and the early Christian church is said to have had a strong ’sense of community’, which implies that it had a well-organized social, financial, and political network among its membership.
Using your wealth to purchase other people’s loyalty is a game as old as humanity itself. Rich men use their wealth to attract women, unscrupulous employers use material incentives and disincentives to manipulate their workers, and wealthy countries like the USA use their national wealth to keep their citizens loyal to the cause of aggressive and genocidal Imperialism. But historical longevity and common practice don’t make the manipulation or exploitation morally or ethically right.
Organized religions are inherently POLITICAL organizations. There is a fundamental difference between the financial enterprise and political machinations of an organized religion versus a mass of independent, unaffiliated believers, philosophers, and mystics who do not support any organized religion.
Christianity and Islam are known as proselytizing religions because they make an organized and systematic effort to gain converts, and they often provide services, products, or employment to attract converts. Judaism, Hinduism, and Buddhism show far less zeal about gaining converts, which is why you almost never hear about Jewish, Hindu, or Buddhist missionaries.
Modern medical and nursing schools usually teach their students the moral principle that the provision of medical services should never be used as a means to proselytize or promote a religion, but that does not deter many Christian health care providers from doing exactly that. Most of the medical and charitable organizations based in Christian countries are fronts for Christian proselytizing activities.
One of the largest international medical relief organizations based in the USA, Northwest Medical Teams, states in their recruitment brochure that their chief ‘mission’ is to ’spread the Gospel of Jesus Christ’, that their medical relief services are subordinate to their stated goal of proselytizing Christianity, and that their medical relief work is merely an ‘aegis’, or facade, for spreading Christianity.
During the CIA’s illegal Iran/Contra scam of the 1980s, Christian missionary pilots and planes smuggled drugs into the USA and arms into Central America and Iran. Now the CIA is using Christian missionary planes to smuggle heroin from Afghanistan, cocaine from Latin America, and for ‘rendition’ flights of ‘Terrorist’ prisoners to secret prisons that practice torture and commit extra-judicial executions.
The USA’s Faith Based Initiative law provides Christian missionary organizations with taxpayer funds that are used to proselytize Christianity to indigenous populations throughout the world. Christian missionaries are the leading edge of a religious, cultural, economic, and political aggression supported by the US government.
When missionaries bring outside wealth to an impoverished Third World country and use that wealth to provide services that are meant to attract converts, they are interfering with the local social and economic structure as well as the local cultural traditions. Indigenous people who take advantage of the privileges provided by the missionaries and convert to Christianity partake in a social organization that uses foreign wealth as a tool to eliminate the indigenous culture and replace it with Christianity.
A small and reclusive population of a few hundred people with a primitive Stone Age culture lives on North Sentinel Island, in the Andaman chain, which is administered by the government of India. To protect the culture of the inhabitants of North Sentinel Island, the Indian government has wisely banned anyone from visiting the island. I approve of the Indian government’s policy of protecting the unique culture of the North Sentinels from outside influence. If anyone on North Sentinel Island should ever desire to leave, they can build a boat and do so.
Among a total of 195 nations in the world today, fifty-seven of those nations have a legally established, official State Religion. There are fourteen nations that claim Christianity as their State Religion, twenty-six nations that claim Islam as their State Religion, six nations that claim Buddhism as their State Religion, and the Jewish State of Israel. The Jewish State of Israel discriminates against its non-Jewish citizens and within its borders Israel officially prohibits the proselytizing of any religion other than Judaism. Many people believe that Israel has a ‘right to exist’ in this manner as a Jewish State.
Many Islamic countries strive to protect the cultural identity of their citizens by enforcing a ban on preaching any religion but Islam. Considering the aggressive, insidious, and highly political nature of Christian missionary programs, the banning of non-Moslem religious preaching by Moslem governments makes sense.
Currently there is no officially Hindu State anywhere in the world, but perhaps India should become a Hindu State in order to protect its indigenous religion and culture from the predatory missionaries and State-sponsored cultural Imperialism that are coming from both Christian and Moslem countries. If the Jews have the right to establish and maintain Israel as a Jewish State, then the Hindus certainly have a right to establish and maintain India as a Hindu State.
When Western leaders talk about a ‘Clash of Civilizations’, what they really mean is Judeo-Christianity and corporate Capitalism versus all non-Christians and non-Capitalists. Christian missionaries are essentially colonialists working for Christian cultural Imperialism.
When the Hindus of India rise up in riot and drive out the Christian missionaries and the Christian ‘cash converts’, they are doing what the Iraqi, Afghani, and Palestinian Freedom Fighters are doing. They are protecting themselves and their indigenous culture from wealthy and unscrupulous invaders who have no respect for them or for their culture. I wish the Hindu nationalists well in their efforts to defend and maintain the independence and survival of their indigenous culture and religion against the onslaught of predatory and disrespectful foreigners whose goal is to replace indigenous traditional cultures with a global Christian empire.
If Christian missionaries want to come to India and try to make converts to Christianity, let them come with empty pockets and compete on a level playing field. And if most of the locals don’t want the missionaries interfering with their traditional way of life, they have the right to make the missionaries and their converts leave.
Source: english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/106593-2/
Pravda, RUSSIA
Christian missionaries make no secret of the fact that they use medical services, education, and employment opportunities to lure impoverished indigenous populations throughout the world into conversion to Christianity.
The religious and cultural Imperialism performed by missionaries nearly always goes hand-in-hand with political and economic Imperialism. Christian missionaries often work in partnership with the CIA, with the US government, and with wealthy corporations to subvert the religion, the culture, the economy, and the politics of vulnerable indigenous populations. The CIA often uses planes owned by Christian missionary organizations and flown by Christian missionary pilots to smuggle drugs, arms, and prisoners.
According to the popular and scholarly history of Christianity, the early Christian Church found its greatest appeal and attracted its greatest number of converts from the poor people of the Roman Empire. The early Christian churches raised money through a tithe, or ten per cent income tax, levied on their members, and the early Christian church is said to have had a strong ’sense of community’, which implies that it had a well-organized social, financial, and political network among its membership.
Using your wealth to purchase other people’s loyalty is a game as old as humanity itself. Rich men use their wealth to attract women, unscrupulous employers use material incentives and disincentives to manipulate their workers, and wealthy countries like the USA use their national wealth to keep their citizens loyal to the cause of aggressive and genocidal Imperialism. But historical longevity and common practice don’t make the manipulation or exploitation morally or ethically right.
Organized religions are inherently POLITICAL organizations. There is a fundamental difference between the financial enterprise and political machinations of an organized religion versus a mass of independent, unaffiliated believers, philosophers, and mystics who do not support any organized religion.
Christianity and Islam are known as proselytizing religions because they make an organized and systematic effort to gain converts, and they often provide services, products, or employment to attract converts. Judaism, Hinduism, and Buddhism show far less zeal about gaining converts, which is why you almost never hear about Jewish, Hindu, or Buddhist missionaries.
Modern medical and nursing schools usually teach their students the moral principle that the provision of medical services should never be used as a means to proselytize or promote a religion, but that does not deter many Christian health care providers from doing exactly that. Most of the medical and charitable organizations based in Christian countries are fronts for Christian proselytizing activities.
One of the largest international medical relief organizations based in the USA, Northwest Medical Teams, states in their recruitment brochure that their chief ‘mission’ is to ’spread the Gospel of Jesus Christ’, that their medical relief services are subordinate to their stated goal of proselytizing Christianity, and that their medical relief work is merely an ‘aegis’, or facade, for spreading Christianity.
During the CIA’s illegal Iran/Contra scam of the 1980s, Christian missionary pilots and planes smuggled drugs into the USA and arms into Central America and Iran. Now the CIA is using Christian missionary planes to smuggle heroin from Afghanistan, cocaine from Latin America, and for ‘rendition’ flights of ‘Terrorist’ prisoners to secret prisons that practice torture and commit extra-judicial executions.
The USA’s Faith Based Initiative law provides Christian missionary organizations with taxpayer funds that are used to proselytize Christianity to indigenous populations throughout the world. Christian missionaries are the leading edge of a religious, cultural, economic, and political aggression supported by the US government.
When missionaries bring outside wealth to an impoverished Third World country and use that wealth to provide services that are meant to attract converts, they are interfering with the local social and economic structure as well as the local cultural traditions. Indigenous people who take advantage of the privileges provided by the missionaries and convert to Christianity partake in a social organization that uses foreign wealth as a tool to eliminate the indigenous culture and replace it with Christianity.
A small and reclusive population of a few hundred people with a primitive Stone Age culture lives on North Sentinel Island, in the Andaman chain, which is administered by the government of India. To protect the culture of the inhabitants of North Sentinel Island, the Indian government has wisely banned anyone from visiting the island. I approve of the Indian government’s policy of protecting the unique culture of the North Sentinels from outside influence. If anyone on North Sentinel Island should ever desire to leave, they can build a boat and do so.
Among a total of 195 nations in the world today, fifty-seven of those nations have a legally established, official State Religion. There are fourteen nations that claim Christianity as their State Religion, twenty-six nations that claim Islam as their State Religion, six nations that claim Buddhism as their State Religion, and the Jewish State of Israel. The Jewish State of Israel discriminates against its non-Jewish citizens and within its borders Israel officially prohibits the proselytizing of any religion other than Judaism. Many people believe that Israel has a ‘right to exist’ in this manner as a Jewish State.
Many Islamic countries strive to protect the cultural identity of their citizens by enforcing a ban on preaching any religion but Islam. Considering the aggressive, insidious, and highly political nature of Christian missionary programs, the banning of non-Moslem religious preaching by Moslem governments makes sense.
Currently there is no officially Hindu State anywhere in the world, but perhaps India should become a Hindu State in order to protect its indigenous religion and culture from the predatory missionaries and State-sponsored cultural Imperialism that are coming from both Christian and Moslem countries. If the Jews have the right to establish and maintain Israel as a Jewish State, then the Hindus certainly have a right to establish and maintain India as a Hindu State.
When Western leaders talk about a ‘Clash of Civilizations’, what they really mean is Judeo-Christianity and corporate Capitalism versus all non-Christians and non-Capitalists. Christian missionaries are essentially colonialists working for Christian cultural Imperialism.
When the Hindus of India rise up in riot and drive out the Christian missionaries and the Christian ‘cash converts’, they are doing what the Iraqi, Afghani, and Palestinian Freedom Fighters are doing. They are protecting themselves and their indigenous culture from wealthy and unscrupulous invaders who have no respect for them or for their culture. I wish the Hindu nationalists well in their efforts to defend and maintain the independence and survival of their indigenous culture and religion against the onslaught of predatory and disrespectful foreigners whose goal is to replace indigenous traditional cultures with a global Christian empire.
If Christian missionaries want to come to India and try to make converts to Christianity, let them come with empty pockets and compete on a level playing field. And if most of the locals don’t want the missionaries interfering with their traditional way of life, they have the right to make the missionaries and their converts leave.
Source: english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/106593-2/
CHINESE ECONOMY MONITOR--- NOTE 1
B.RAMAN
( What will be the impact of the global financial and economic melt-down on the Chinese economy? This question should be of interest to the other countries of the South and the South-East Asian region. If the Chinese economy is badly affected, they too are likely to feel the negative consequences of the down-turn in the Chinese economy. Keeping this in view, we intend brInging out a periodic "Chinese Economy Monitor" based on open information. Here goes the first Monitor in the series---B.Raman)
CITIC PACIFIC FACES ENQUIRY
The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong announced on October 22,2008, that it has undertaken an enquiry into the affairs of the Citic Pacific, the Hong Kong listed branch of the China International Trust and Investment Corporation, following a report submitted by the Citic Pacific to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 20, allegedly admitting that two of its senior executives had entered into unauthorised foreign exchange forward contracts in Euros and Australian dollars, which have already resulted in a loss of US $ 104 million, with a possibility of further losses, which could run up to another US $ 200 million. Among those reportedly facing enquiry are a Finance Director of the Company and the daughter of the Chairman of the company, who occupied a senior position in the company. It has been reported that pending the enquiry she has already been demoted. Albert Ho, a member of the Hong Kong Legislative Assembly, has accused the company of concealing this information from the investors. The Citic Pacific has reportedly admitted that it became aware of this unauthorised transaction on September 7. According to Ho, the company did not mention this in a circular issued by it to the investors on September 12. The prices of the shares of the company fell by 55 per cent on October 21 and by another 10 per cent on October 22.---- Source Agence France Presse (AFP).
TOY INDUSTRY IN A CRISIS
2.Another toy factory in China catering to the US market went bankrupt on October 22 and closed down its production, rendering 900 workers jobless. The toy factory is called the Chong Yik Toy company. It is owned by a Hong Kong businessman and is based in Shenzhen in the Guangdong province. Some of the workers have alleged that they were not paid their salaries for the last four months. Some payments were made to them by the company as well as the local Chinese authorities at the time of the termination of their services. Last week, the Hong Kong listed Smart Union Toys factory in Dongguan in the Guangdong province closed down after terminating the services of 7000 workers. According to the Xinhua news agency, in the first seven months of this year, 3631 small scale enterprises producing toys mainly for the US market have closed down due to a decline in the demand for China-made toys from the US. These enterprises, which have closed down, constituted 52.7 per cent of all toy-making companies in China--- Source "South China Morning Post" and AFP.
SHIPPING COMPANIES FACE DIFFICULTIES
3.After the aviation industry, the shipping industry is facing a crisis due to a decrease in demand for cargo space.Share prices of some major shipping companies, which haul bulk freight such as iron ore, coal and grains, have fallen by 50-70 per cent in the past few months."The global economic slowdown will push some shipping lines into bankruptcy," Marc Faber, a famed investor and editor of the "Gloom Boom & Doom" report, told AFP. Standard & Poor's also said this week that the Asian shipping market has suffered double-digit declines on the US-Asia route in June and July, as well as being hit with higher operating costs. There are reports of idle vessels being put to anchor, and question marks over the many orders for new ships that were placed in brighter times, years ahead of expected completion dates. "Pain levels could be high for companies that agreed to pay 2007 top-dollar prices for dry bulk ships, or who agreed to pay high long-term charters," said an article in the Far Eastern Economic Review this month. Container shipping was hit first earlier this year as demand for Asian-made goods in the US and Europe dropped off.In a chain reaction, Asian factories manufacturing electronics and consumer items for the US and European markets began lowering output, and the need for raw materials has declined.
Container shippers, bulk operators and port authorities across the region are reporting slowdowns. Malaysia's Port Klang said it had been hit by a decline in cargo handling since the start of October, due to a retail downturn and lower vehicle sales in the US and Europe. The
Shanghai International Port has said that growth in cargo traffic dropped sharply to 9.9 per cent in the first half of 2008 on the "increasingly grave global economy and trade situation". "Faced with the severe economic situation at home and abroad, the port industry has met with the most complicated operation environment in recent years," it said. Hong Kong, which is sensitive to any drop in demand for toys, gadgets and clothes made in the factory-belt of China's southern Guangdong province, said that after an increase of 6.7 per cent in container traffic in August, growth dropped suddenly in September to just 1.2 per cent. "Given the global gloomy economic outlook, Hong Kong is expected to face a much tougher export trade environment," said Hong Kong Container Terminal Operators Association chairman Alan Lee.
In Taiwan's seven harbours, volumes fell 2.23 per cent in the nine months to September, and in southern Kaohsiung city, business was down 1.76 per cent. "We are seeing a rapid decline in the volume of exports," an official with the Japanese Shipowners' Association said of the decline in demand. Shipping rates have been falling to levels s not seen since the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998.A so-called capesize vessel, most commonly used to carry coal and iron ore, now costs under US$11,000 a day to hire, about half the charge in May.
Container shipping lines have said they expect cargo demand on the US-Asia route to fall by as much as eight per cent in 2008.
"It's a safe statement that no carrier is operating profitably in the eastbound transpacific market today," said Ron Widdows, chairman of the Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement - a forum of major shipping lines. However, the group said vessels are still running at 90 per cent capacity as firms cut costs by consolidating routes and returning chartered vessels, and take advantage of the downturn to lay up ships for repairs.Widdows said the industry was confident that government efforts to unclog global finance would be effective, restoring confidence and paving the way for a shipping recovery in late 2009.---- Source AFP
CONTAINER TRAFFIC DOWN
4. Shanghai's port, one of the world's busiest, has cut its container traffic target for the year by five per cent, blaming the global financial crisis and an economic slowdown.The Shanghai International Port Group's handling volume is expected to reach 28.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), less than its earlier target of 30 million TEU.Lower trade volume due to the weakening global economy, slowing domestic growth and natural disasters in China this year have affected the port's container operations.China's economy expanded by nine per cent in the third quarter, the lowest level in about five years as the global credit crisis put a dent in its booming economy.The port operator's container throughput rose 10.4 per cent from a year earlier to 13.82 million TEU in the first half, sharply slower than the growth in 2007, when throughput jumped 20.4 per cent to 26.2 million TEU.In the first nine months of 2008, container processing in Chinese ports rose 14.9 per cent to 94.5 million TEU, 2.2 per cent lower than the first half, according to Ministry of Transport figures.--- Source "Shanghai Securities News" and AFP.
MOVE FOR FINANCIAL WATCHDOG
5.Japan, China and South Korea will set up an Asian watchdog body to monitor the health of financial institutions in a bid to counter global economic chaos.They hope to have the first meeting in Tokyo next month and also invite other Asian nations including the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).It would serve as a regional version of the Financial Stability Forum, a panel that advises the Group of Seven major economies and exchanges information among them.Japan also hopes the meeting would discuss enhancing controls on the financial system.The move came as US and European leaders called for an emergency summit in November to discuss ways to restore the battered global financial sector. Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso is also sounding out whether the South Korean and Chinese leaders can travel to Japan by the end of the year for an inaugural three-way economic summit. Japanese Government officials declined to comment on the reports. ---Source "Yomiuri Shimbun" and the Kyodo news agency.
REAL ESTATE
6.China will exempt property transactions from stamp tax and value-added tax from November 1 to boost the ailing real estate market, state media reported on October 22, citing the Finance Ministry.
IMPACT ON SINO-INDIAN TRADE
My comment: The down-turn in the Chinese economy is likely to affect Sino-Indian bilateral trade which has galloped to a record US $ 30 billion and could affect Indian iron ore producers. Iron ore constitutes about 55 per cent of Indian exports to China. With the Olympics over and with the sluggish real estate market and a suspension of the construction of new factories, the demand for steel in China could come down.(22-10-08)\\
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
( What will be the impact of the global financial and economic melt-down on the Chinese economy? This question should be of interest to the other countries of the South and the South-East Asian region. If the Chinese economy is badly affected, they too are likely to feel the negative consequences of the down-turn in the Chinese economy. Keeping this in view, we intend brInging out a periodic "Chinese Economy Monitor" based on open information. Here goes the first Monitor in the series---B.Raman)
CITIC PACIFIC FACES ENQUIRY
The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong announced on October 22,2008, that it has undertaken an enquiry into the affairs of the Citic Pacific, the Hong Kong listed branch of the China International Trust and Investment Corporation, following a report submitted by the Citic Pacific to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 20, allegedly admitting that two of its senior executives had entered into unauthorised foreign exchange forward contracts in Euros and Australian dollars, which have already resulted in a loss of US $ 104 million, with a possibility of further losses, which could run up to another US $ 200 million. Among those reportedly facing enquiry are a Finance Director of the Company and the daughter of the Chairman of the company, who occupied a senior position in the company. It has been reported that pending the enquiry she has already been demoted. Albert Ho, a member of the Hong Kong Legislative Assembly, has accused the company of concealing this information from the investors. The Citic Pacific has reportedly admitted that it became aware of this unauthorised transaction on September 7. According to Ho, the company did not mention this in a circular issued by it to the investors on September 12. The prices of the shares of the company fell by 55 per cent on October 21 and by another 10 per cent on October 22.---- Source Agence France Presse (AFP).
TOY INDUSTRY IN A CRISIS
2.Another toy factory in China catering to the US market went bankrupt on October 22 and closed down its production, rendering 900 workers jobless. The toy factory is called the Chong Yik Toy company. It is owned by a Hong Kong businessman and is based in Shenzhen in the Guangdong province. Some of the workers have alleged that they were not paid their salaries for the last four months. Some payments were made to them by the company as well as the local Chinese authorities at the time of the termination of their services. Last week, the Hong Kong listed Smart Union Toys factory in Dongguan in the Guangdong province closed down after terminating the services of 7000 workers. According to the Xinhua news agency, in the first seven months of this year, 3631 small scale enterprises producing toys mainly for the US market have closed down due to a decline in the demand for China-made toys from the US. These enterprises, which have closed down, constituted 52.7 per cent of all toy-making companies in China--- Source "South China Morning Post" and AFP.
SHIPPING COMPANIES FACE DIFFICULTIES
3.After the aviation industry, the shipping industry is facing a crisis due to a decrease in demand for cargo space.Share prices of some major shipping companies, which haul bulk freight such as iron ore, coal and grains, have fallen by 50-70 per cent in the past few months."The global economic slowdown will push some shipping lines into bankruptcy," Marc Faber, a famed investor and editor of the "Gloom Boom & Doom" report, told AFP. Standard & Poor's also said this week that the Asian shipping market has suffered double-digit declines on the US-Asia route in June and July, as well as being hit with higher operating costs. There are reports of idle vessels being put to anchor, and question marks over the many orders for new ships that were placed in brighter times, years ahead of expected completion dates. "Pain levels could be high for companies that agreed to pay 2007 top-dollar prices for dry bulk ships, or who agreed to pay high long-term charters," said an article in the Far Eastern Economic Review this month. Container shipping was hit first earlier this year as demand for Asian-made goods in the US and Europe dropped off.In a chain reaction, Asian factories manufacturing electronics and consumer items for the US and European markets began lowering output, and the need for raw materials has declined.
Container shippers, bulk operators and port authorities across the region are reporting slowdowns. Malaysia's Port Klang said it had been hit by a decline in cargo handling since the start of October, due to a retail downturn and lower vehicle sales in the US and Europe. The
Shanghai International Port has said that growth in cargo traffic dropped sharply to 9.9 per cent in the first half of 2008 on the "increasingly grave global economy and trade situation". "Faced with the severe economic situation at home and abroad, the port industry has met with the most complicated operation environment in recent years," it said. Hong Kong, which is sensitive to any drop in demand for toys, gadgets and clothes made in the factory-belt of China's southern Guangdong province, said that after an increase of 6.7 per cent in container traffic in August, growth dropped suddenly in September to just 1.2 per cent. "Given the global gloomy economic outlook, Hong Kong is expected to face a much tougher export trade environment," said Hong Kong Container Terminal Operators Association chairman Alan Lee.
In Taiwan's seven harbours, volumes fell 2.23 per cent in the nine months to September, and in southern Kaohsiung city, business was down 1.76 per cent. "We are seeing a rapid decline in the volume of exports," an official with the Japanese Shipowners' Association said of the decline in demand. Shipping rates have been falling to levels s not seen since the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998.A so-called capesize vessel, most commonly used to carry coal and iron ore, now costs under US$11,000 a day to hire, about half the charge in May.
Container shipping lines have said they expect cargo demand on the US-Asia route to fall by as much as eight per cent in 2008.
"It's a safe statement that no carrier is operating profitably in the eastbound transpacific market today," said Ron Widdows, chairman of the Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement - a forum of major shipping lines. However, the group said vessels are still running at 90 per cent capacity as firms cut costs by consolidating routes and returning chartered vessels, and take advantage of the downturn to lay up ships for repairs.Widdows said the industry was confident that government efforts to unclog global finance would be effective, restoring confidence and paving the way for a shipping recovery in late 2009.---- Source AFP
CONTAINER TRAFFIC DOWN
4. Shanghai's port, one of the world's busiest, has cut its container traffic target for the year by five per cent, blaming the global financial crisis and an economic slowdown.The Shanghai International Port Group's handling volume is expected to reach 28.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), less than its earlier target of 30 million TEU.Lower trade volume due to the weakening global economy, slowing domestic growth and natural disasters in China this year have affected the port's container operations.China's economy expanded by nine per cent in the third quarter, the lowest level in about five years as the global credit crisis put a dent in its booming economy.The port operator's container throughput rose 10.4 per cent from a year earlier to 13.82 million TEU in the first half, sharply slower than the growth in 2007, when throughput jumped 20.4 per cent to 26.2 million TEU.In the first nine months of 2008, container processing in Chinese ports rose 14.9 per cent to 94.5 million TEU, 2.2 per cent lower than the first half, according to Ministry of Transport figures.--- Source "Shanghai Securities News" and AFP.
MOVE FOR FINANCIAL WATCHDOG
5.Japan, China and South Korea will set up an Asian watchdog body to monitor the health of financial institutions in a bid to counter global economic chaos.They hope to have the first meeting in Tokyo next month and also invite other Asian nations including the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).It would serve as a regional version of the Financial Stability Forum, a panel that advises the Group of Seven major economies and exchanges information among them.Japan also hopes the meeting would discuss enhancing controls on the financial system.The move came as US and European leaders called for an emergency summit in November to discuss ways to restore the battered global financial sector. Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso is also sounding out whether the South Korean and Chinese leaders can travel to Japan by the end of the year for an inaugural three-way economic summit. Japanese Government officials declined to comment on the reports. ---Source "Yomiuri Shimbun" and the Kyodo news agency.
REAL ESTATE
6.China will exempt property transactions from stamp tax and value-added tax from November 1 to boost the ailing real estate market, state media reported on October 22, citing the Finance Ministry.
IMPACT ON SINO-INDIAN TRADE
My comment: The down-turn in the Chinese economy is likely to affect Sino-Indian bilateral trade which has galloped to a record US $ 30 billion and could affect Indian iron ore producers. Iron ore constitutes about 55 per cent of Indian exports to China. With the Olympics over and with the sluggish real estate market and a suspension of the construction of new factories, the demand for steel in China could come down.(22-10-08)\\
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
INDIA: Moon Mission, Quest for Helium-3
One of the mission objectives of India's lunar orbitor, Chandrayaan-1, is to understand the mineralogy of the Moon in much finer detail and quantify precious Helium-3 stocks buried underneath its craters. "No one is sure whether there's Helium-3 at all on the Moon. It has been thus far a scientific hypothesis. Chandrayaan-1 will make this belief a reality," astrophysicist N Sri Raghunandan Kumar said.
Once Chandrayaan-1 relays its data on the Helium-3 stocks to ISRO's master control room back home in Bengaluru, India will have a larger claim on the natural lunar resources when man begins to colonise it at a later date. India will have a greater advantage under the IPR regime, since it has not only spent Rs 386 crore on the mission but also came out with new findings on Helium-3.
Helium-3 is an isotope of the earthly Helium, the gas that is generally used to inflate balloons. But unlike its poor cousin, Helium-3 is quite precious, 100 times more valuable than gold. It is the gas that is touted as the future fuel of nuclear plants and automotives.
At present market prices of petroleum products, a tonne of Helium-3 costs not less than Rs 13,500 crore as against Rs 140 crore per tonne of gold. It is precious than enriched uranium, not only in terms of its value but also in terms of radioactive emission.
Helium-3 is clean and less radioactive than uranium and thorium. And the Moon is said to have one million tonnes of Helium-3. Chandrayaan-1 will explore whether the Moon has even larger stocks of this clean nuclear fuel. According to ISRO scientists, Helium-3 is present in the Moon's regolith (loose rocks or mantle) just below the surface of its false seas (maria).
Incidentally, Helium-3 is the only lunar resource worth extracting and bringing back to Earth. The human planet too has Helium-3 reserves, but they are less than 200 kgs. A tonne and a half of Helium-3 is sufficient to light up India for 365 days.
Senior astronomer Prof G Yellaih told this correspondent that the energy needs of the Earth would double in the next four decades and Helium-3 could be used to produce clean electricity. "Helium-3 can be used in fusion reactors to meet the energy needs of the world in future. India will definitely have a claim over Helium-3 by virtue of Chandrayaan-1 mission," he pointed out.
European Space Agency astrophysicists are of the view that the by-products of Helium-3 after its use for nuclear energy will be extremely helpful to support life in future lunar colonies. The by-products include hydrogen, water, nitrogen and methane.The National Aeronautics and Space Administration of the USA has estimated that a space shuttle load of Helium-3 would power the entire US for a year. For a developing country like India, a shuttle load of this celestial gas will work wonders as part of its energy requirements are concerned.
"There is more than 100 times more energy in the Helium-3 on the Moon than in all the economically recoverable coal, oil, and natural gas on earth. Helium-3 is highly safe and the fusion reactor using this fuel can be located amidst populated areas," he said.
Once Chandrayaan-1 relays its data on the Helium-3 stocks to ISRO's master control room back home in Bengaluru, India will have a larger claim on the natural lunar resources when man begins to colonise it at a later date. India will have a greater advantage under the IPR regime, since it has not only spent Rs 386 crore on the mission but also came out with new findings on Helium-3.
Helium-3 is an isotope of the earthly Helium, the gas that is generally used to inflate balloons. But unlike its poor cousin, Helium-3 is quite precious, 100 times more valuable than gold. It is the gas that is touted as the future fuel of nuclear plants and automotives.
At present market prices of petroleum products, a tonne of Helium-3 costs not less than Rs 13,500 crore as against Rs 140 crore per tonne of gold. It is precious than enriched uranium, not only in terms of its value but also in terms of radioactive emission.
Helium-3 is clean and less radioactive than uranium and thorium. And the Moon is said to have one million tonnes of Helium-3. Chandrayaan-1 will explore whether the Moon has even larger stocks of this clean nuclear fuel. According to ISRO scientists, Helium-3 is present in the Moon's regolith (loose rocks or mantle) just below the surface of its false seas (maria).
Incidentally, Helium-3 is the only lunar resource worth extracting and bringing back to Earth. The human planet too has Helium-3 reserves, but they are less than 200 kgs. A tonne and a half of Helium-3 is sufficient to light up India for 365 days.
Senior astronomer Prof G Yellaih told this correspondent that the energy needs of the Earth would double in the next four decades and Helium-3 could be used to produce clean electricity. "Helium-3 can be used in fusion reactors to meet the energy needs of the world in future. India will definitely have a claim over Helium-3 by virtue of Chandrayaan-1 mission," he pointed out.
European Space Agency astrophysicists are of the view that the by-products of Helium-3 after its use for nuclear energy will be extremely helpful to support life in future lunar colonies. The by-products include hydrogen, water, nitrogen and methane.The National Aeronautics and Space Administration of the USA has estimated that a space shuttle load of Helium-3 would power the entire US for a year. For a developing country like India, a shuttle load of this celestial gas will work wonders as part of its energy requirements are concerned.
"There is more than 100 times more energy in the Helium-3 on the Moon than in all the economically recoverable coal, oil, and natural gas on earth. Helium-3 is highly safe and the fusion reactor using this fuel can be located amidst populated areas," he said.
CHINA’S POLITICAL CONCLAVE - Some Uncomfortable Questions
By Bhaskar Roy
The recently concluded third plenary session of the 17th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) (October 9-12) ended on a sober note. There was much to be celebrated – the successful holding of the summer Olympics where China topped the medal list, followed by the hosting of the Paraolympics and most important, the successful space walk by a Chinese astronaut, known as taikonaut, aboard the Shenzou VII space craft. These were mentioned, but other issues clouded the plenum.
The communiqué issued at the end of the plenum acknowledged a serious challenge facing the country that has been generally painted over till so far. It is the rural sector where the country’s 800 million of its 1.3 billion population live. Significantly, on the second day of the plenum i.e. October 10, the Shanghai Daily reproduced a section from the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Competitive Report 2008-2009 which said western and north-eastern regions of China were lagging in development with wide spread absolute poverty, approximately 128 million people living on less than US $1 per day, without access to clean water or sufficient education and health care. In terms of efficiency enhancement, the report noted some serious shortcomings, with the financial sector ranked at 109 among the 131 countries surveyed.
The WEF report also noted positives for China. For example, it moved up four places to the 30th position in Global Competitiveness Index. But it was also noted that China’s remarkable showing in GDP ($3.3 trillion), foreign exchange reserves ($1.8 trillion), and high domestic savings “should not deemphasize the enormous challenges that face China is maintaining its competitiveness”.
It is known that such reports by international organizations are usually careful not to upset large countries, and China is about to step into the G8 + along with India. At the same time, an official newspaper under the control of the Shanghai government and party committee carrying such a report at a crucial time is certainly not routine.
In another development of note, the CCP mouthpiece, the People’s Daily, commented (September 28) that young professionals joining the system at high levels with proper ideological education and commitment had created a situation where young cadres were being corrupted, who would be used in th future in power politics and making money. The newspaper was quoting a party Central Committee report.
Another analytical report in the run up to the plenum suggested that erstwhile party General Secretary Jiang Zemin had brought in senior experts into the party fold to improve economic efficiency, but after he retired things began to go wrong.
These, and other reports could only suggest that problems within China are rising, and these developments appear to have opened up the otherwise dormant power struggle between Jiang Zeman’s Shanghai faction emphasizing on the coastal region, and Hu Jintao’s Communist Youth League (CYL) faction emphasizing on rural development. In March this year, Jiang Zemin had openly criticized the energy policy of Hu Jintao leadership, an issue extremely important for the industrialized coastal region of China. The differences seem to have become sharp enough to adversely affect the development and stability paradigm of the country.
The neo-liberal nexus of party officials – bureaucrats – business interests have worked only on profit motive, with corruption playing the role of the engine. This is exactly what the People’s Daily observed.
It is not surprising that the plenum basically concentrated on rural reform. Only small and selected news about the deliberations during the plenary meetings was released. The published plenum document, delivered by Hu Jintao, frankly admitted that “The country was facing challenges in its rural development and reform”, and promised to tackle the problems firmly. At the same time the document may have failed to inspire confidence among the people when it said “new concepts and ideas” would be worked out and the government would “try to make a breakthrough” in reforming the rural system. Efforts to uplift the situation include education, health care, employment, housing and pension sectors.
The only definite decision that came out of the session was doubling the per capita “disposable” income of rural residents by 2020 from the 2008 level. A big task, but China has delivered on even bigger promises in the past.
China’s vast rural regions suffered from years of neglect to build the country’s power show-room in the coastal region. Late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping had hoped that the development of the coastal areas would flow to the interior. This, unfortunately, did not happen. In fact, the urban real estate mafia in collusion with party officials, bureaucrats and the police almost literally robbed farmers and rural residents of their land. The government is moving to enact a compensation law to ensure that owners are paid fair compensation when the state takes over their land.
This year celebrates the 30th anniversary of late leader Deng Xiaoping’s declaration of the “reform and opening up” policy. Deng focussed on liberating the rural forces by breaking the commune policy finally and introducing the system where a farmer could lease land from the state and cultivate it. The farmers were given a partial free market for their produce. The rural sector started on a fast paced growth.
Unfortunately, further reform has come to a stop in China. This despite the promise of greater transparency and political and economic liberalization by Hu Jintao. Development has stagnated because without further political reform, economic reform would not be possible.
In the run up to the plenum there were discussions about allowing farmers to lease out their land to others for cultivation. The farmer may continue to work on the land or seek some other employment. It would depend on the agreement between the two parties. This, however, did not find a mention in the plenum report suggesting serious disagreements, and signalling opposition from hardliners in the Central Committee. This decision was apparently adopted by the Politburo after the plenum was over.
The review of the economic situation was not effusive, but guarded. The effect of the global financial meltdown on China’s economy was taken note of, but carefully in order not to raise panic. But immediately after the plenum, a Hong Kong owned toy factory which supplied to top international brands like Mattel, closed down, putting more than seven thousand workers out of jobs. China’s is basically an export driven economy, and it cannot escape global depressions.
Recently, China has suffered some battering over their quality control of its products. Three major incidents were discovery of toys that had harmful chemicals, harmful preservatives in exported preserved food stuff, and baby milk food contaminated with melamine. A lesser country’s export market could have been ruined, but it is in the interest of many to keep China afloat.
The dislocation between the Central government in Beijing, and the local governments has become acute. For the best part, laws and rules remain in the books. While social unrest has been growing, the CCP and the Central government have returned to the old ways of brushing problems under the carpet. Factional sniping has added to the problems.
China’s fortunes do affect the world in some way or the other. Serious political problems in the country is also reflected in its foreign policy. These are issues that countries involved with China economically, politically, and with territorial issues need to look out for.
The recently concluded third plenary session of the 17th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) (October 9-12) ended on a sober note. There was much to be celebrated – the successful holding of the summer Olympics where China topped the medal list, followed by the hosting of the Paraolympics and most important, the successful space walk by a Chinese astronaut, known as taikonaut, aboard the Shenzou VII space craft. These were mentioned, but other issues clouded the plenum.
The communiqué issued at the end of the plenum acknowledged a serious challenge facing the country that has been generally painted over till so far. It is the rural sector where the country’s 800 million of its 1.3 billion population live. Significantly, on the second day of the plenum i.e. October 10, the Shanghai Daily reproduced a section from the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Competitive Report 2008-2009 which said western and north-eastern regions of China were lagging in development with wide spread absolute poverty, approximately 128 million people living on less than US $1 per day, without access to clean water or sufficient education and health care. In terms of efficiency enhancement, the report noted some serious shortcomings, with the financial sector ranked at 109 among the 131 countries surveyed.
The WEF report also noted positives for China. For example, it moved up four places to the 30th position in Global Competitiveness Index. But it was also noted that China’s remarkable showing in GDP ($3.3 trillion), foreign exchange reserves ($1.8 trillion), and high domestic savings “should not deemphasize the enormous challenges that face China is maintaining its competitiveness”.
It is known that such reports by international organizations are usually careful not to upset large countries, and China is about to step into the G8 + along with India. At the same time, an official newspaper under the control of the Shanghai government and party committee carrying such a report at a crucial time is certainly not routine.
In another development of note, the CCP mouthpiece, the People’s Daily, commented (September 28) that young professionals joining the system at high levels with proper ideological education and commitment had created a situation where young cadres were being corrupted, who would be used in th future in power politics and making money. The newspaper was quoting a party Central Committee report.
Another analytical report in the run up to the plenum suggested that erstwhile party General Secretary Jiang Zemin had brought in senior experts into the party fold to improve economic efficiency, but after he retired things began to go wrong.
These, and other reports could only suggest that problems within China are rising, and these developments appear to have opened up the otherwise dormant power struggle between Jiang Zeman’s Shanghai faction emphasizing on the coastal region, and Hu Jintao’s Communist Youth League (CYL) faction emphasizing on rural development. In March this year, Jiang Zemin had openly criticized the energy policy of Hu Jintao leadership, an issue extremely important for the industrialized coastal region of China. The differences seem to have become sharp enough to adversely affect the development and stability paradigm of the country.
The neo-liberal nexus of party officials – bureaucrats – business interests have worked only on profit motive, with corruption playing the role of the engine. This is exactly what the People’s Daily observed.
It is not surprising that the plenum basically concentrated on rural reform. Only small and selected news about the deliberations during the plenary meetings was released. The published plenum document, delivered by Hu Jintao, frankly admitted that “The country was facing challenges in its rural development and reform”, and promised to tackle the problems firmly. At the same time the document may have failed to inspire confidence among the people when it said “new concepts and ideas” would be worked out and the government would “try to make a breakthrough” in reforming the rural system. Efforts to uplift the situation include education, health care, employment, housing and pension sectors.
The only definite decision that came out of the session was doubling the per capita “disposable” income of rural residents by 2020 from the 2008 level. A big task, but China has delivered on even bigger promises in the past.
China’s vast rural regions suffered from years of neglect to build the country’s power show-room in the coastal region. Late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping had hoped that the development of the coastal areas would flow to the interior. This, unfortunately, did not happen. In fact, the urban real estate mafia in collusion with party officials, bureaucrats and the police almost literally robbed farmers and rural residents of their land. The government is moving to enact a compensation law to ensure that owners are paid fair compensation when the state takes over their land.
This year celebrates the 30th anniversary of late leader Deng Xiaoping’s declaration of the “reform and opening up” policy. Deng focussed on liberating the rural forces by breaking the commune policy finally and introducing the system where a farmer could lease land from the state and cultivate it. The farmers were given a partial free market for their produce. The rural sector started on a fast paced growth.
Unfortunately, further reform has come to a stop in China. This despite the promise of greater transparency and political and economic liberalization by Hu Jintao. Development has stagnated because without further political reform, economic reform would not be possible.
In the run up to the plenum there were discussions about allowing farmers to lease out their land to others for cultivation. The farmer may continue to work on the land or seek some other employment. It would depend on the agreement between the two parties. This, however, did not find a mention in the plenum report suggesting serious disagreements, and signalling opposition from hardliners in the Central Committee. This decision was apparently adopted by the Politburo after the plenum was over.
The review of the economic situation was not effusive, but guarded. The effect of the global financial meltdown on China’s economy was taken note of, but carefully in order not to raise panic. But immediately after the plenum, a Hong Kong owned toy factory which supplied to top international brands like Mattel, closed down, putting more than seven thousand workers out of jobs. China’s is basically an export driven economy, and it cannot escape global depressions.
Recently, China has suffered some battering over their quality control of its products. Three major incidents were discovery of toys that had harmful chemicals, harmful preservatives in exported preserved food stuff, and baby milk food contaminated with melamine. A lesser country’s export market could have been ruined, but it is in the interest of many to keep China afloat.
The dislocation between the Central government in Beijing, and the local governments has become acute. For the best part, laws and rules remain in the books. While social unrest has been growing, the CCP and the Central government have returned to the old ways of brushing problems under the carpet. Factional sniping has added to the problems.
China’s fortunes do affect the world in some way or the other. Serious political problems in the country is also reflected in its foreign policy. These are issues that countries involved with China economically, politically, and with territorial issues need to look out for.
Project Grey Goose : Some Lessons Learned, and more to come
INTELFUSION
Phase I of Project Grey Goose ended last Thursday, but my work fielding report requests, doing interviews, conducting a post-mortem, and scoping out Phase II is ongoing. Nevertheless I thought now would be a good time to offer a few of the lessons learned:
1. We demonstrated that a handful of bright, motivated people can push Open Source Intelligence to the edge of the envelope working part-time with no money, using free or donated software (thanks Palantir), and, most importantly, stripping away every vestige of bureaucracy until nothing was left but the work itself.
UPDATE: Blogger pal and Intel vet Mike Tanji makes a similar point in his ThreatsWatch post.
2. We learned where OSINT stops and classified intelligence begins. What goes on inside the FSB and FAPSI may be privy to spies but not to us nor to any OSINT analyst. On occassion, however, we do find a few clues like this one from Silicon Taiga:
The general-major Alexander Burutin, Deputy chief of staff of the Russian armed forces, says that scientists in developed countries are actively developing ‘information weapon’, which will be directed against Russia. He believes there are special troops engaged in developing information operations in the armed forces of several states. Mr. Burutin says that intensive ‘destruction of spiritual values by influencing the individual, group and mass consciousness’ of the Russian citizens is being currently held. The major-general thinks the information warfare against Russia provides for the negative image of Russia. To counteract the information warfare, the RF General Staff has decided to establish the ‘Agency for positive image of Russia’. Simultaneously, the Federal Agency for Government Communications and Information at the RF President, FSB and Ministry of Defence will be engaged in developing special methods for information warfare. (emphasis added)
3. The key is not, as Dancho Danchev wrote, “real-time OSINT versus historical OSINT”. In fact, Danchev’s description of “real-time OSINT” does not differ from our own investigative processes in any respect. We just applied it to historical data. Now that we have a proof-of-concept, Phase II will be a real-time effort over 120 days.
4. There’s a real hunger for Cyber intel, not just within our own government but among our allies as well. I’ve received requests for our “internal-only” report from across the DOD and IC, as well as from some of our allies in Europe and the Pacific.
5. Open Source is not enough. We needed to use proprietary software donated by Palantir Technologies. For Phase II, we’ve had to reach out to another company, Basis Technology, to use their Rosette Linguistics Platform. Additionally, we asked for and received some private network data collected by other agencies that was relevant to our investigation. The bottom line is that data comes in three colors: white, grey, and black, and without access to at least two of the three types, this report could never have been written.
As for Phase II, it will commence shortly. Other than that, I won’t have too much to say about it, except watch for our report in the Spring of 2009.
Phase I of Project Grey Goose ended last Thursday, but my work fielding report requests, doing interviews, conducting a post-mortem, and scoping out Phase II is ongoing. Nevertheless I thought now would be a good time to offer a few of the lessons learned:
1. We demonstrated that a handful of bright, motivated people can push Open Source Intelligence to the edge of the envelope working part-time with no money, using free or donated software (thanks Palantir), and, most importantly, stripping away every vestige of bureaucracy until nothing was left but the work itself.
UPDATE: Blogger pal and Intel vet Mike Tanji makes a similar point in his ThreatsWatch post.
2. We learned where OSINT stops and classified intelligence begins. What goes on inside the FSB and FAPSI may be privy to spies but not to us nor to any OSINT analyst. On occassion, however, we do find a few clues like this one from Silicon Taiga:
The general-major Alexander Burutin, Deputy chief of staff of the Russian armed forces, says that scientists in developed countries are actively developing ‘information weapon’, which will be directed against Russia. He believes there are special troops engaged in developing information operations in the armed forces of several states. Mr. Burutin says that intensive ‘destruction of spiritual values by influencing the individual, group and mass consciousness’ of the Russian citizens is being currently held. The major-general thinks the information warfare against Russia provides for the negative image of Russia. To counteract the information warfare, the RF General Staff has decided to establish the ‘Agency for positive image of Russia’. Simultaneously, the Federal Agency for Government Communications and Information at the RF President, FSB and Ministry of Defence will be engaged in developing special methods for information warfare. (emphasis added)
3. The key is not, as Dancho Danchev wrote, “real-time OSINT versus historical OSINT”. In fact, Danchev’s description of “real-time OSINT” does not differ from our own investigative processes in any respect. We just applied it to historical data. Now that we have a proof-of-concept, Phase II will be a real-time effort over 120 days.
4. There’s a real hunger for Cyber intel, not just within our own government but among our allies as well. I’ve received requests for our “internal-only” report from across the DOD and IC, as well as from some of our allies in Europe and the Pacific.
5. Open Source is not enough. We needed to use proprietary software donated by Palantir Technologies. For Phase II, we’ve had to reach out to another company, Basis Technology, to use their Rosette Linguistics Platform. Additionally, we asked for and received some private network data collected by other agencies that was relevant to our investigation. The bottom line is that data comes in three colors: white, grey, and black, and without access to at least two of the three types, this report could never have been written.
As for Phase II, it will commence shortly. Other than that, I won’t have too much to say about it, except watch for our report in the Spring of 2009.
October 21, 2008
Costs of war: War on bankruptcy
War on Terror Boardgame
US defense spending, which has more than doubled since the declaration of the war on terror in 2001, is helping to threaten bankruptcy for the US, Shaun Waterman writes for ISN Security Watch.
By Shaun Waterman in Washington, DC for ISN Security Watch
No one knows what the final cost will be of the bailout package for the US financial sector agreed this month by the administration and the congress. But the headline figure so far for this one-off rescue package - US$700 billion - is noteworthy, because it is now roughly the amount the US spends on defense every year.
In Fiscal Year 2008, which ended on 30 September, the US defense budget was just under US$695 billion - including US$515 billion in the so-called base budget for the Pentagon and military spending by other departments, and a US$180 billion special spending provision for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Defense spending has more than doubled in the seven years since the war on terror was declared, a rate of increase not seen since the massive military build-up in US president Ronald Reagan's first term in the early 1980s.
Now the military says it needs to recapitalize a force strained by seven years of war while simultaneously transforming itself to meet new threats.
The US military needs to replace and repair equipment that is being used up "at very intense rates" in Iraq and Afghanistan Assistant Defense Secretary Michael Vickers told ISN Security Watch. At the same time, the military has to "deter rising conventional and strategic threats, like ... China or rogue nuclear powers."
That requires modernizing capabilities such as the US nuclear arsenal and the country's high-tech air and naval assets at the same time as "fighting this war on terror and getting better at irregular warfare," he said.
"It's the coming together of investment challenges and strategic challenges."
That is something of an understatement.
For the 2008 fiscal year, the US federal budget deficit - the amount by which government's spending exceeded its income - was a record US$455 billion, nearly three times what it was the year before and well above the administration's rosy predictions when spending levels were set last year.
For many critics, that level of borrowing looks increasingly unsustainable, and they predict that the irresistible force of rising pressure on government spending is about to meet the immovable object of declining tax revenues.
Such prognosticators of fiscal doom tend to focus on the structural problems presented by the entitlement programs in the federal budget. They have good reason to. The cost of these programs, principally Social Security and Medicare, is largely driven by factors outside the control of policymakers, like demographics and medical costs, making it all-but-impossible to cut spending on them.
But although defense spending is technically in what is called the discretionary part of the budget - which policymakers can set at whatever level they want - the convergence of politics, money and bureaucracy mean that, in practice, military spending tends to be a ratchet, turning only in one direction: up.
The warning by former president Dwight Eisenhower against the unhealthy power of the military-industrial complex is well-remembered. It is much less widely known that in the first draft of the speech in which he coined the term he had called it the military-industrial-congressional complex.
And with good reason: it is Congress, supposedly the guardians of the public purse, the overseers of government spending and the body which actually sets the budget each year, which has created that ratchet.
Unlike in many other modern democracies, lawmakers in the US do not just get to vote "yes" or "no" on the government's proposed budget. Members of the powerful congressional appropriations committees and their staffs actually write the budget, line by line.
It is this extraordinary control over the detail of the government's spending plans that creates the possibility of earmarks - congressional additions to the budget designed to benefit a lawmaker's home district, rather than respond to a request on the part of the department or agency in whose budget the item appears.
Much attention has been focused on earmarks as a driver of unnecessary spending, but some experts say this is a misconception.
"Congress doesn't tend to change the administration's budget request [for defense spending] all that much,” Steven Kosiak, of the Washington think tank the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments told ISN Security Watch.
Kosiak said that typically only five percent of line items were altered. "The changes are incremental, marginal," he said.
"On the other hand, there is a lot of proactivity [in the Pentagon] in putting items in [the budget] that they know have congressional support" even if that is only because they generate jobs in key lawmakers' districts.
"Earmarks are an annoyance," he said, amounting to "maybe a few billion dollars a year. They are not a central driver of why we're spending so much."
That central driver is principally, according to Kosiak, the ballooning costs of military procurement.
Big-ticket high-technology programs designed to move the military into next-generation warfare, like the Air Force's new F-35 or the Army's digitally networked Future Combat System, almost invariably come in way over budget.
That is because officials almost invariably low-ball the costs, said Kathleen Hicks, a former senior career policy official in the defense secretary's office. "There is not realism in the investment account," she told ISN Security Watch.
Hicks, who left the Pentagon in 2006 after 13 years and is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said officials rely on the fact that, by the time the real expense becomes apparent, the programs will be protected from cancellation because the large amounts of money already spent on them create a "sunk costs argument" - cutting now will mean wasting the funds already invested.
"The whole incentive mechanism is backwards," she concluded, especially when account is taken of the special status of the Iraq and Afghanistan expenses, which - despite being by this point largely foreseeable - are still funded by an annual emergency supplemental appropriation.
As such, the money is outside the budget caps set by Congress to control spending and limit the deficit. Typically, such supplemental spending was requested during the summer, when the process of considering the regular budget was almost complete - ensuring that there was little opportunity for Congress to evaluate the proposals.
When Democrats took control of Congress after the 2006 mid-term elections, they pledged to end the practice of funding the wars in that way. But although they have managed to insist that the supplemental spending proposals are sent to Capitol Hill in February just like the regular budget, they have so far failed to ensure that they are included in the base budget.
That is hardly surprising. The US$180 billion supplemental for 2008 is nearly a quarter of the whole defense budget. If it had been included in the base budget, cuts in other non-defense programs, or tax increases, would have been needed to offset the cost under the Congressional spending rules.
The new administration, whoever heads it, will find itself looking at a big problem.
View Shaun Waterman's latest columns here:
Costs of war: Iraq waste; Costs of war: Bogeymen; Costs of war: Conceptual confusion; Costs of war: 'Tell me how this ends'
Shaun Waterman is a senior writer and analyst for ISN Security Watch. He is a UK journalist based in Washington, DC, covering homeland and national security for United Press International.
US defense spending, which has more than doubled since the declaration of the war on terror in 2001, is helping to threaten bankruptcy for the US, Shaun Waterman writes for ISN Security Watch.
By Shaun Waterman in Washington, DC for ISN Security Watch
No one knows what the final cost will be of the bailout package for the US financial sector agreed this month by the administration and the congress. But the headline figure so far for this one-off rescue package - US$700 billion - is noteworthy, because it is now roughly the amount the US spends on defense every year.
In Fiscal Year 2008, which ended on 30 September, the US defense budget was just under US$695 billion - including US$515 billion in the so-called base budget for the Pentagon and military spending by other departments, and a US$180 billion special spending provision for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Defense spending has more than doubled in the seven years since the war on terror was declared, a rate of increase not seen since the massive military build-up in US president Ronald Reagan's first term in the early 1980s.
Now the military says it needs to recapitalize a force strained by seven years of war while simultaneously transforming itself to meet new threats.
The US military needs to replace and repair equipment that is being used up "at very intense rates" in Iraq and Afghanistan Assistant Defense Secretary Michael Vickers told ISN Security Watch. At the same time, the military has to "deter rising conventional and strategic threats, like ... China or rogue nuclear powers."
That requires modernizing capabilities such as the US nuclear arsenal and the country's high-tech air and naval assets at the same time as "fighting this war on terror and getting better at irregular warfare," he said.
"It's the coming together of investment challenges and strategic challenges."
That is something of an understatement.
For the 2008 fiscal year, the US federal budget deficit - the amount by which government's spending exceeded its income - was a record US$455 billion, nearly three times what it was the year before and well above the administration's rosy predictions when spending levels were set last year.
For many critics, that level of borrowing looks increasingly unsustainable, and they predict that the irresistible force of rising pressure on government spending is about to meet the immovable object of declining tax revenues.
Such prognosticators of fiscal doom tend to focus on the structural problems presented by the entitlement programs in the federal budget. They have good reason to. The cost of these programs, principally Social Security and Medicare, is largely driven by factors outside the control of policymakers, like demographics and medical costs, making it all-but-impossible to cut spending on them.
But although defense spending is technically in what is called the discretionary part of the budget - which policymakers can set at whatever level they want - the convergence of politics, money and bureaucracy mean that, in practice, military spending tends to be a ratchet, turning only in one direction: up.
The warning by former president Dwight Eisenhower against the unhealthy power of the military-industrial complex is well-remembered. It is much less widely known that in the first draft of the speech in which he coined the term he had called it the military-industrial-congressional complex.
And with good reason: it is Congress, supposedly the guardians of the public purse, the overseers of government spending and the body which actually sets the budget each year, which has created that ratchet.
Unlike in many other modern democracies, lawmakers in the US do not just get to vote "yes" or "no" on the government's proposed budget. Members of the powerful congressional appropriations committees and their staffs actually write the budget, line by line.
It is this extraordinary control over the detail of the government's spending plans that creates the possibility of earmarks - congressional additions to the budget designed to benefit a lawmaker's home district, rather than respond to a request on the part of the department or agency in whose budget the item appears.
Much attention has been focused on earmarks as a driver of unnecessary spending, but some experts say this is a misconception.
"Congress doesn't tend to change the administration's budget request [for defense spending] all that much,” Steven Kosiak, of the Washington think tank the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments told ISN Security Watch.
Kosiak said that typically only five percent of line items were altered. "The changes are incremental, marginal," he said.
"On the other hand, there is a lot of proactivity [in the Pentagon] in putting items in [the budget] that they know have congressional support" even if that is only because they generate jobs in key lawmakers' districts.
"Earmarks are an annoyance," he said, amounting to "maybe a few billion dollars a year. They are not a central driver of why we're spending so much."
That central driver is principally, according to Kosiak, the ballooning costs of military procurement.
Big-ticket high-technology programs designed to move the military into next-generation warfare, like the Air Force's new F-35 or the Army's digitally networked Future Combat System, almost invariably come in way over budget.
That is because officials almost invariably low-ball the costs, said Kathleen Hicks, a former senior career policy official in the defense secretary's office. "There is not realism in the investment account," she told ISN Security Watch.
Hicks, who left the Pentagon in 2006 after 13 years and is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said officials rely on the fact that, by the time the real expense becomes apparent, the programs will be protected from cancellation because the large amounts of money already spent on them create a "sunk costs argument" - cutting now will mean wasting the funds already invested.
"The whole incentive mechanism is backwards," she concluded, especially when account is taken of the special status of the Iraq and Afghanistan expenses, which - despite being by this point largely foreseeable - are still funded by an annual emergency supplemental appropriation.
As such, the money is outside the budget caps set by Congress to control spending and limit the deficit. Typically, such supplemental spending was requested during the summer, when the process of considering the regular budget was almost complete - ensuring that there was little opportunity for Congress to evaluate the proposals.
When Democrats took control of Congress after the 2006 mid-term elections, they pledged to end the practice of funding the wars in that way. But although they have managed to insist that the supplemental spending proposals are sent to Capitol Hill in February just like the regular budget, they have so far failed to ensure that they are included in the base budget.
That is hardly surprising. The US$180 billion supplemental for 2008 is nearly a quarter of the whole defense budget. If it had been included in the base budget, cuts in other non-defense programs, or tax increases, would have been needed to offset the cost under the Congressional spending rules.
The new administration, whoever heads it, will find itself looking at a big problem.
View Shaun Waterman's latest columns here:
Costs of war: Iraq waste; Costs of war: Bogeymen; Costs of war: Conceptual confusion; Costs of war: 'Tell me how this ends'
Shaun Waterman is a senior writer and analyst for ISN Security Watch. He is a UK journalist based in Washington, DC, covering homeland and national security for United Press International.
QUOTE OF THE DAY : Chandrayaan 1
"Space is the frontier for mankind in the future. If we want to go beyond the moon, we have to go there first "
-- ISRO Spokesman , S.satish
-- ISRO Spokesman , S.satish
Chandrayaan-1 launch perfect, says ISRO
press Trust of India / Sriharikota (ap) October 22, 2008, 9:20 IST
As India's first lunar mission settled into its chosen orbit successfully, Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) Chairman G Madhavan Nair described the launch as "perfect" which was achieved after "fighting against all odds"
"It is a historic moment as far as India is concerned. We have started our journey for the moon and the first leg of the journey has gone perfectly well," Nair said seconds after the successful completion of the launch.
"It is a remarkable performance by the launch vehicle," he said.
One of the mission objectives of India's lunar orbitor, Chandrayaan-1, is to understand the mineralogy of the Moon in much finer detail and quantify precious Helium-3 stocks buried underneath its craters. "No one is sure whether there's Helium-3 at all on the Moon. It has been thus far a scientific hypothesis. Chandrayaan-1 will make this belief a reality," astrophysicist N Sri Raghunandan Kumar said.
Once Chandrayaan-1 relays its data on the Helium-3 stocks to ISRO's master control room back home in Bengaluru, India will have a larger claim on the natural lunar resources when man begins to colonise it at a later date. India will have a greater advantage under the IPR regime, since it has not only spent Rs 386 crore on the mission but also came out with new findings on Helium-3.
Helium-3 is an isotope of the earthly Helium, the gas that is generally used to inflate balloons. But unlike its poor cousin, Helium-3 is quite precious, 100 times more valuable than gold. It is the gas that is touted as the future fuel of nuclear plants and automotives.
At present market prices of petroleum products, a tonne of Helium-3 costs not less than Rs 13,500 crore as against Rs 140 crore per tonne of gold. It is precious than enriched uranium, not only in terms of its value but also in terms of radioactive emission.
Helium-3 is clean and less radioactive than uranium and thorium. And the Moon is said to have one million tonnes of Helium-3. Chandrayaan-1 will explore whether the Moon has even larger stocks of this clean nuclear fuel. According to ISRO scientists, Helium-3 is present in the Moon's regolith (loose rocks or mantle) just below the surface of its false seas (maria).
Incidentally, Helium-3 is the only lunar resource worth extracting and bringing back to Earth. The human planet too has Helium-3 reserves, but they are less than 200 kgs. A tonne and a half of Helium-3 is sufficient to light up India for 365 days.
Senior astronomer Prof G Yellaih told this correspondent that the energy needs of the Earth would double in the next four decades and Helium-3 could be used to produce clean electricity. "Helium-3 can be used in fusion reactors to meet the energy needs of the world in future. India will definitely have a claim over Helium-3 by virtue of Chandrayaan-1 mission," he pointed out.
European Space Agency astrophysicists are of the view that the by-products of Helium-3 after its use for nuclear energy will be extremely helpful to support life in future lunar colonies. The by-products include hydrogen, water, nitrogen and methane.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration of the USA has estimated that a space shuttle load of Helium-3 would power the entire US for a year. For a developing country like India, a shuttle load of this celestial gas will work wonders as part of its energy requirements are concerned.
"There is more than 100 times more energy in the Helium-3 on the Moon than in all the economically recoverable coal, oil, and natural gas on earth. Helium-3 is highly safe and the fusion reactor using this fuel can be located amidst populated areas," he said.
It is a perfect launch. Now it will be orbiting the earth, he said, adding that today "what we have started is a remarkable journey for the Indian spacecraft to go to the moon and try to unravel the mysteries of the moon".
"We have been fighting against all odds," the noted scientist said explaining that heavy rains and cloudy skies over the last four days had led to a lot of worries about the launch.
"Fortunately, we had clear skies today and we would be completing the remaining part of the journey within 15 days," Nair said.
Other scientists who were present at the launch station attributed the success of the maiden moon mission to a "great teamwork".
While some scientists termed the euphoria of the successful launch as a "thrilling experience", others said that it was like "hitting the bulls eye", "a red letter day for ISRO" and a "glorious mission" as they complimented their "baby" on its soujourn.
"It has been a great team work. We handover the phase-2 of the moon mission to the next teams," a scientist said.
George Koshy, Mission Director said: "It was like that the moon was coming and peeping how we worked..."
As soon as the fourth stage of Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) seperated from the Chandrayaan-1, scientists here broke into raptures.
Tears rolled down from the scientists' eyes as they receieved accolades for their achievement from their counterparts present at the centre.
Chandrayaan-I intends to put a spacecraft into an orbit around the moon to map its nearest celestial neighbour for about two years with eleven payloads (scientific instruments).
It would reach the moon surface in the second week of November. Later, the moon impact probe would be ejected from Chandrayaan-1 over the moon surface in a chosen area.
Following this, cameras and other scientific instruments were turned on and throughly tested. This leads to the operational phase of the mission. This phase lasts about two years during which Chandrayaan-1 would explore the lunar surface with its array of instruments that includes cameras and spectrometers.
Of the the eleven payloads, five are entirely designed and developed in India, three from European Space Agency, one from Bulgaria and two from NASA.
Chandrayaan-1 aims to achieve scientific knowledge through high-resolution remote sensing of moon in the visible, near infrared, microwave and x-ray regions of electromagnetic spectrum. With this, preparation of a three-dimensional atlas of the lunar surface and chemical and mineralogical mapping of entire moon surface was invisaged.
As India's first lunar mission settled into its chosen orbit successfully, Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) Chairman G Madhavan Nair described the launch as "perfect" which was achieved after "fighting against all odds"
"It is a historic moment as far as India is concerned. We have started our journey for the moon and the first leg of the journey has gone perfectly well," Nair said seconds after the successful completion of the launch.
"It is a remarkable performance by the launch vehicle," he said.
One of the mission objectives of India's lunar orbitor, Chandrayaan-1, is to understand the mineralogy of the Moon in much finer detail and quantify precious Helium-3 stocks buried underneath its craters. "No one is sure whether there's Helium-3 at all on the Moon. It has been thus far a scientific hypothesis. Chandrayaan-1 will make this belief a reality," astrophysicist N Sri Raghunandan Kumar said.
Once Chandrayaan-1 relays its data on the Helium-3 stocks to ISRO's master control room back home in Bengaluru, India will have a larger claim on the natural lunar resources when man begins to colonise it at a later date. India will have a greater advantage under the IPR regime, since it has not only spent Rs 386 crore on the mission but also came out with new findings on Helium-3.
Helium-3 is an isotope of the earthly Helium, the gas that is generally used to inflate balloons. But unlike its poor cousin, Helium-3 is quite precious, 100 times more valuable than gold. It is the gas that is touted as the future fuel of nuclear plants and automotives.
At present market prices of petroleum products, a tonne of Helium-3 costs not less than Rs 13,500 crore as against Rs 140 crore per tonne of gold. It is precious than enriched uranium, not only in terms of its value but also in terms of radioactive emission.
Helium-3 is clean and less radioactive than uranium and thorium. And the Moon is said to have one million tonnes of Helium-3. Chandrayaan-1 will explore whether the Moon has even larger stocks of this clean nuclear fuel. According to ISRO scientists, Helium-3 is present in the Moon's regolith (loose rocks or mantle) just below the surface of its false seas (maria).
Incidentally, Helium-3 is the only lunar resource worth extracting and bringing back to Earth. The human planet too has Helium-3 reserves, but they are less than 200 kgs. A tonne and a half of Helium-3 is sufficient to light up India for 365 days.
Senior astronomer Prof G Yellaih told this correspondent that the energy needs of the Earth would double in the next four decades and Helium-3 could be used to produce clean electricity. "Helium-3 can be used in fusion reactors to meet the energy needs of the world in future. India will definitely have a claim over Helium-3 by virtue of Chandrayaan-1 mission," he pointed out.
European Space Agency astrophysicists are of the view that the by-products of Helium-3 after its use for nuclear energy will be extremely helpful to support life in future lunar colonies. The by-products include hydrogen, water, nitrogen and methane.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration of the USA has estimated that a space shuttle load of Helium-3 would power the entire US for a year. For a developing country like India, a shuttle load of this celestial gas will work wonders as part of its energy requirements are concerned.
"There is more than 100 times more energy in the Helium-3 on the Moon than in all the economically recoverable coal, oil, and natural gas on earth. Helium-3 is highly safe and the fusion reactor using this fuel can be located amidst populated areas," he said.
It is a perfect launch. Now it will be orbiting the earth, he said, adding that today "what we have started is a remarkable journey for the Indian spacecraft to go to the moon and try to unravel the mysteries of the moon".
"We have been fighting against all odds," the noted scientist said explaining that heavy rains and cloudy skies over the last four days had led to a lot of worries about the launch.
"Fortunately, we had clear skies today and we would be completing the remaining part of the journey within 15 days," Nair said.
Other scientists who were present at the launch station attributed the success of the maiden moon mission to a "great teamwork".
While some scientists termed the euphoria of the successful launch as a "thrilling experience", others said that it was like "hitting the bulls eye", "a red letter day for ISRO" and a "glorious mission" as they complimented their "baby" on its soujourn.
"It has been a great team work. We handover the phase-2 of the moon mission to the next teams," a scientist said.
George Koshy, Mission Director said: "It was like that the moon was coming and peeping how we worked..."
As soon as the fourth stage of Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) seperated from the Chandrayaan-1, scientists here broke into raptures.
Tears rolled down from the scientists' eyes as they receieved accolades for their achievement from their counterparts present at the centre.
Chandrayaan-I intends to put a spacecraft into an orbit around the moon to map its nearest celestial neighbour for about two years with eleven payloads (scientific instruments).
It would reach the moon surface in the second week of November. Later, the moon impact probe would be ejected from Chandrayaan-1 over the moon surface in a chosen area.
Following this, cameras and other scientific instruments were turned on and throughly tested. This leads to the operational phase of the mission. This phase lasts about two years during which Chandrayaan-1 would explore the lunar surface with its array of instruments that includes cameras and spectrometers.
Of the the eleven payloads, five are entirely designed and developed in India, three from European Space Agency, one from Bulgaria and two from NASA.
Chandrayaan-1 aims to achieve scientific knowledge through high-resolution remote sensing of moon in the visible, near infrared, microwave and x-ray regions of electromagnetic spectrum. With this, preparation of a three-dimensional atlas of the lunar surface and chemical and mineralogical mapping of entire moon surface was invisaged.
Sonia trapped in Mayajaal
SOURCE: OFFSTUMPED
Some in the media have called it a cat fight rather frivilously, but something much bigger is playing out in Uttar Pradesh.
On the face of it the stand off between Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and BSP supremo Mayawati and the Congress President Sonia Gandhi appears to be one of settling petty political scores. But that would be too simplistic a reading of what Mayawati is up to.
That the Congress is a distant fourth player in U.P. politics is not news. But what however is ignored by most and almost never discussed in the mainstream media is how tenuous and vulnerable the Congress President’s projection of power is.
The utter incompetence of political leadership of the Congress that saw the party lose every major state election since 2004 may hardly be discussed in Congress circles. But it is astounding that the Congress would persist with the strategic blunder of continuing with the Congress President’s projection of strength in a lonely pocket borough in a state where the Congress is a distant nuisance in its best day at the hustings.
With this periodic show of strength in Rae Bareli and Amethi the mother and son duo have exposed their soft underbelly to Mayawati who as we discussed earlier is on a demolition spree.
By throwing the gauntlet to Sonia Gandhi in her favorite pocket borough Mayawati has essentially ensured that Sonia Gandhi is locked into a local turf war in her Constituency that will be a distraction from her national aspirations. Sonia Gandhi can ill afford to ignore Maya’s moves in Uttar Pradesh at the peril of an embarassing political loss in Rae Barelli and Amethi.
The utter lack of political strategy in the Congress is exposed by the fact there is no safe state for the Congress in the electoral map as it stands today unlike the BJP which pretty much has Gujarat locked up.
Andhra is the lone large state with a Congress only Government. With the Telangana issue picking up steam once again and the Chiranjeevi factor shaking up the electoral dynamics even Andhra is no safe bet for the Congress.
There in lies the vulnerability of a Sonia Gandhi lead Congress.Making it even worse is the fact that the Congress President is so vulnerable in her pocket borough that she has to court arrest to defend her constituency.
It is a riveting moment in Indian politics and the beginning of a long process of undoing of the Congress by a Mayawati lead BSP.
Some have questioned whether Maya will be a factor in the next wave of elections. All it takes is a high profile desertion from the Congress highlighting the incompetence of the political leadership and that house of cards will come tumbling down.
The countdown has begun, Offstumped is watching……
Some in the media have called it a cat fight rather frivilously, but something much bigger is playing out in Uttar Pradesh.
On the face of it the stand off between Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and BSP supremo Mayawati and the Congress President Sonia Gandhi appears to be one of settling petty political scores. But that would be too simplistic a reading of what Mayawati is up to.
That the Congress is a distant fourth player in U.P. politics is not news. But what however is ignored by most and almost never discussed in the mainstream media is how tenuous and vulnerable the Congress President’s projection of power is.
The utter incompetence of political leadership of the Congress that saw the party lose every major state election since 2004 may hardly be discussed in Congress circles. But it is astounding that the Congress would persist with the strategic blunder of continuing with the Congress President’s projection of strength in a lonely pocket borough in a state where the Congress is a distant nuisance in its best day at the hustings.
With this periodic show of strength in Rae Bareli and Amethi the mother and son duo have exposed their soft underbelly to Mayawati who as we discussed earlier is on a demolition spree.
By throwing the gauntlet to Sonia Gandhi in her favorite pocket borough Mayawati has essentially ensured that Sonia Gandhi is locked into a local turf war in her Constituency that will be a distraction from her national aspirations. Sonia Gandhi can ill afford to ignore Maya’s moves in Uttar Pradesh at the peril of an embarassing political loss in Rae Barelli and Amethi.
The utter lack of political strategy in the Congress is exposed by the fact there is no safe state for the Congress in the electoral map as it stands today unlike the BJP which pretty much has Gujarat locked up.
Andhra is the lone large state with a Congress only Government. With the Telangana issue picking up steam once again and the Chiranjeevi factor shaking up the electoral dynamics even Andhra is no safe bet for the Congress.
There in lies the vulnerability of a Sonia Gandhi lead Congress.Making it even worse is the fact that the Congress President is so vulnerable in her pocket borough that she has to court arrest to defend her constituency.
It is a riveting moment in Indian politics and the beginning of a long process of undoing of the Congress by a Mayawati lead BSP.
Some have questioned whether Maya will be a factor in the next wave of elections. All it takes is a high profile desertion from the Congress highlighting the incompetence of the political leadership and that house of cards will come tumbling down.
The countdown has begun, Offstumped is watching……
WHY TAMILNET HAS STOPPED GIVING BATTLE FRONT NEWS?
B.RAMAN
The Sri Lankan Army advancing towards Kilinochchi in the Northern Province, where the headquarters of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) used to be located, and the LTTE cadres deployed for slowing down the advance have been engaged in a do or die battle since October 17,2008.
2. While claiming that it continues to maintain its advance despite bad weather, the Sri Lankan Army has admitted that it has already suffered 33 fatalities in the latest phase of the battle that started on October 17 and has been brought to a temporary halt due to rains. In an attempt to explain the slowing down of the operations, the Sri Lankan Army has accused the LTTE of using poisonous gas against the troops.
3. President Mahinda Rajapaksa has also indirectly admitted the slowing down of the operations. The "Daily News" of Sri Lanka has quoted him as saying at a function of the National Research Council at Colombo on October 20,2008, as follows: "The battle against terrorism which we could convincingly win within a few days, is nevertheless prolonged due to the grave concern and the optimum caution exercised by the highly disciplined Armed Forces who are fighting under severe constraints, to cause no harm or loss to innocent, civilian human life."
4. Thus, while the Army has attributed the slowing down to the alleged use of poisonous gas by the LTTE, the President has attributed it to the Army's anxiety to avoid civilian casualties.
5. Intriguingly for the last one week, the pro-LTTE web site www.tamilnet.com, which used to give battle front news in the past, has not done so. One would have expected it to highlight the Army's admission of having sustained 33 fatalities. It has not done so. For more than a week now, the Tamilnet has been giving mostly political news regarding developments in Tamil Nadu in support of the Sri Lankan Tamil cause and activities of the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora abroad. If at all it gives operational news, it is generally about the Eastern Province.
6, While www.puthinam.com, a pro-LTTE Tamil web site, continues to give battlefield news, Tamilnet has not been doing so. The only news about the latest round of fighting is to be found in the web site of Puthinam, which claims that the LTTE inflicted heavy casualties on the advancing army.
7. Why the silence of Tamilnet? One has to look for an answer to this question as the fighting continues. (21-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The Sri Lankan Army advancing towards Kilinochchi in the Northern Province, where the headquarters of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) used to be located, and the LTTE cadres deployed for slowing down the advance have been engaged in a do or die battle since October 17,2008.
2. While claiming that it continues to maintain its advance despite bad weather, the Sri Lankan Army has admitted that it has already suffered 33 fatalities in the latest phase of the battle that started on October 17 and has been brought to a temporary halt due to rains. In an attempt to explain the slowing down of the operations, the Sri Lankan Army has accused the LTTE of using poisonous gas against the troops.
3. President Mahinda Rajapaksa has also indirectly admitted the slowing down of the operations. The "Daily News" of Sri Lanka has quoted him as saying at a function of the National Research Council at Colombo on October 20,2008, as follows: "The battle against terrorism which we could convincingly win within a few days, is nevertheless prolonged due to the grave concern and the optimum caution exercised by the highly disciplined Armed Forces who are fighting under severe constraints, to cause no harm or loss to innocent, civilian human life."
4. Thus, while the Army has attributed the slowing down to the alleged use of poisonous gas by the LTTE, the President has attributed it to the Army's anxiety to avoid civilian casualties.
5. Intriguingly for the last one week, the pro-LTTE web site www.tamilnet.com, which used to give battle front news in the past, has not done so. One would have expected it to highlight the Army's admission of having sustained 33 fatalities. It has not done so. For more than a week now, the Tamilnet has been giving mostly political news regarding developments in Tamil Nadu in support of the Sri Lankan Tamil cause and activities of the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora abroad. If at all it gives operational news, it is generally about the Eastern Province.
6, While www.puthinam.com, a pro-LTTE Tamil web site, continues to give battlefield news, Tamilnet has not been doing so. The only news about the latest round of fighting is to be found in the web site of Puthinam, which claims that the LTTE inflicted heavy casualties on the advancing army.
7. Why the silence of Tamilnet? One has to look for an answer to this question as the fighting continues. (21-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
October 20, 2008
F-35 environmental impact statement released
10/17/2008 - EGLIN AIR FORCE BASE, Fla. (AFNS) -- Air Force officials have announced that the final environmental impact statement addressing the beddown of the Joint Strike Fighter and 7th Special Forces Group (Airborne) is available for public review.
The publication of the notice of availability in the Federal Register begins a 30-day public waiting period before a Record of Decision can be signed by Kathleen Ferguson, deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force for installations.
The release of the final EIS is in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act and is a necessary step in the decision-making process on how these military organizations will be integrated into the Eglin AFB community.
The noise level associated with the Joint Strike Fighter, designated as the F-35 Lightning II, is significant, which has prompted public concerns about the noise and overall environmental impacts of the aircraft beddown.
In announcing the release, Ms. Ferguson said, "The Air Force is committed to being a good neighbor to the communities which surround Eglin AFB and the future installations selected for F-35 basing. We are diligently exploring methods to mitigate the impact.
"Our Airmen and their families live and work within these same communities and neighborhoods and are equally affected," she said. "The Air Force is committed to keeping base personnel, community leaders and the public informed as the process moves forward. The Air Force will make every effort to balance the mission essential requirements for a safe and efficient training program for the JSF with the aircraft's impact on the environment, public health and safety in the surrounding community."
The public libraries in Eglin's surrounding communities will be provided copies of the final EIS and serve as the repositories of information. The final EIS is posted on the Eglin public web site.
Comment on this story (comments may be published on Air Force Link)
The publication of the notice of availability in the Federal Register begins a 30-day public waiting period before a Record of Decision can be signed by Kathleen Ferguson, deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force for installations.
The release of the final EIS is in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act and is a necessary step in the decision-making process on how these military organizations will be integrated into the Eglin AFB community.
The noise level associated with the Joint Strike Fighter, designated as the F-35 Lightning II, is significant, which has prompted public concerns about the noise and overall environmental impacts of the aircraft beddown.
In announcing the release, Ms. Ferguson said, "The Air Force is committed to being a good neighbor to the communities which surround Eglin AFB and the future installations selected for F-35 basing. We are diligently exploring methods to mitigate the impact.
"Our Airmen and their families live and work within these same communities and neighborhoods and are equally affected," she said. "The Air Force is committed to keeping base personnel, community leaders and the public informed as the process moves forward. The Air Force will make every effort to balance the mission essential requirements for a safe and efficient training program for the JSF with the aircraft's impact on the environment, public health and safety in the surrounding community."
The public libraries in Eglin's surrounding communities will be provided copies of the final EIS and serve as the repositories of information. The final EIS is posted on the Eglin public web site.
Comment on this story (comments may be published on Air Force Link)
KILINOCHCHI: THE SPECTRE OF STALINGRAD
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO.458
B.RAMAN
The Battle of Stalingrad is considered the bloodiest battle with the largest battlefield casualties in the history of conventional warfare. Under a carefully worked out plan, the Soviet Army inveigled an advancing and over-confident Nazi Army into Stalingrad and then inflicted severe casualties on the Nazi Army. Many of those Nazi soldiers whom the Soviet Army could not kill were killed by "Gen.Winter". The entire Sixth Army of the Nazis was trapped by the Soviet troops with the help of "Gen.Winter" and destroyed.
2. As the battle began on July 17,1942, the Nazi Disinformation machine worked overtime to tell an unsuspecting German people that the fall of Stalingrad and the collapse of the Soviet Army were imminent. The German people waited with bated breath for the news of the fall."Within two days", they were told. Two days became two weeks. Two weeks became two months. Two months became seven months. The battle ended disastrously for the Nazis on February 2, 1943. This marked the beginning of the end of the Nazi dreams in the Second World War.
3. Is one seeing a mini version of Stalingrad in the battle for Kilinochchi, the current headqurters of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)? It is difficult to say on the basis of the scanty information available from the battle front. From even this scanty information, two things are clear: Firstly, the Sri Lankan Army, which senses victory against the LTTE, has been doing well, but not as well as it claims to be. Secondly, the LTTE has been doing badly, but not as badly as projected to be by the disinformation machine of the Sri Lankan Army . The LTTE has shown that there is still a lot of fight left in it---- and a lot of intelligence and innovative thinking.
4. But intelligence and innovatrive thinking alone cannot win wars without resources and the wherewithal. The LTTE is deficient on both counts. But it has shown itself to be as resilient as the Taliban in Afghanistan and as fiercely-motivated. In 2003, the Americans thought and claimed that they had finished the Taliban once and for all. Their facile assumptions proved to be wrong. The Taliban came back----as if it has risen from its much-proclaimed grave--- and has been moving forward relentlessly. Neither air strikes by the most powerful Air Force in the world nor heavy artillery strikes by the most powerful Army in the world have been able to stop its advance.Reluctantly, senior NATO military commanders in Afghanistasn have started admitting that the war against the Taliban is unwinnable and that one has to search for a political solution with neither victory nor defeat for either side. It has not only become unwinnable unless the Taliban commits some serious tactical mistakes, but is also likely to become increasingly unaffordable thanks to the financial and economic melt-down in the US and the rest of the world.
5. The LTTE is calculating that if it can keep fighting against the Sri Lankan Army for some more months, a prolonged war against the LTTE could become as unwinnable and as unaffordable for the rulers of Sri Lanka as a prolonged war against the Taliban for the NATO powers. The rulers of Sri Lanka are living in a fool's paradise if they think that China and Pakistan would come to their rescue if the Government of India stops assisting them under pressure from public opinion in Tamil Nadu. The Pakistani economy is on the verge of a collapse. Even the Chinese were reluctant to help out their time-tested friend as they call Pakistan, as President Asif Ali Zardari found to his dismay when he visited China recently. The Pakistan Army is reeling under one set-back after another inflicted on it by the Taliban. To think that the Pakistan Army would rush to Sri Lanka to spite India would be the height of stupidity.
6. The Chinese, who are increasingly worried over the impact of the recession in the US on their manufacturing industries, which are heavily dependent on the US market, are hugging tight their foreign exchange holdings. They were reluctant to make any definitive
commitment of help to Zardari. They are even showing a decline of interest in further developing the Gwadar port project. In a world beset with the most serious economic crisis it has known since the Great Depression of the 1930s, everybody, including China, is interested in saving every dollar and cent he can. Nobody wants a foreign adventure, which might drain off their depleting resources. If the Sri Lankan Army thinks that China would try to rush in if India stops helping, it is in for a disappointment.
7. The LTTE is calculating that if it can keep fighting against the Sri Lankan Army for some more weeks, "Gen.Monsoon" and "Gen.Recession" could put an end to the pipedreams of the Sri Lankan Army of a definitive victory over the LTTE.
8. Will its calculations prove right or will they be belied? Whatever happens, one thing seems likely---- there is going to be no definitive victory or no definitive defeat for either side in the on-going war.
9. Annexed is an AFP despatch on the present ground situation in the Kilinochchi area.( 20-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi. and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
Tigers blunt Sri Lanka's drive to capture powerbase
COLOMBO, Oct 20, 2008 (AFP) - Dogged resistance by Tamil Tiger guerrillas appears to have held up a Sri Lankan military offensive in the north aimed at smashing the rebels' de facto state, analysts and military sources say.
A bullish government earlier this month said it was poised to capture the Tigers' Kilinochchi powerbase, 330 kilometres (206 miles) north of Colombo.
That drive, however, could take longer than anticipated with the separatist Tigers digging in, an army stretching to defend territory already seized, and poor weather hampering operations, the sources say.
Security forces had banked on a quick fall of Kilinochchi, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam's (LTTE's) political capital.
In early October the army said it was within two kilometres, but since then there has been little forward movement and monsoon rains have also slowed the troops' advance.
The increased resistance in recent weeks is in sharp contrast to an earlier LTTE fallback that enabled troops to move rapidly into rebel territory.
'Troops operating in the south of Kilinochchi are making progress, though they have not shown a rapid progress within the past few days,' said defence analyst Ranil Wijayapala in the state-run Daily News.
He blamed adverse weather, with heavy rains currently lashing the north.
Military sources said increased air attacks have failed to soften up Tiger defences for ground troops to smash through, while the army is stretched.
'With the rapid advance last month, the military is also forced to tie down a lot of soldiers to protect areas newly captured from the Tigers,' a military officer who declined to be named said.
'The Tigers won't be able to hold Kilinochchi for too long, but they can delay the fall,' the officer said.
Aid sources who have had rare access to the region say the guerrillas have moved civilians out of Kilinochchi and appeared to be digging in by building new bunkers.
Losing Kilinochchi would be a major blow to the Tigers, who set up the town as capital of their mini-state after taking the area from government forces 10 years ago.
Sri Lanka's military moved to take the town after their success in driving the Tigers from their eastern strongholds in July last year. The military has been keen to replicate that success in the north.
Previous attempts to take Kilinochchi using large columns of troops failed because Tigers deployed suicide bombers against them, persuading the military to switch to more effective smaller units of special forces.
'The success this time is due to the use of small groups across a broad front,' retired brigadier general Vipul Boteju said.
The military says it has killed about 7,500 Tigers since the start of this year, when the government pulled out of a moribund truce arranged and put in place by Norwegian peace brokers.
But there is also a heavy cost for the military, reflecting the bitterness of the conflict.
Figures tabled in parliament show 1,099 soldiers were killed in the first nine months of 2008, with September seeing the highest number of fatalities -- 200 killed and 997 wounded.
Almost 7,000 soldiers were wounded in the first nine months of the year and 396 civilians were killed.
The guerrillas have not released their casualty estimates but say they are putting up stiff resistance.
The government's 2009 defence budget suggests it is braced for a drawn-out military campaign. Colombo allocated a record 177 billion rupees (1.6 billion dollars) for defence in 2009, up from 166 billion rupees in 2008.
But the Tamil Tigers, who took up arms in 1972 for a separatist homeland, have shown in the past they can turn the tables on the military.
Barely six months after government troops captured the Jaffna peninsula in 1995, the Tigers over-ran a military base in the northeast, killing more than 1,200 soldiers.
The guerrillas also reversed military gains of the previous 19 months in a matter of five days in November 1999, dislodging the military from a key base at the entrance to the Jaffna peninsula.
B.RAMAN
The Battle of Stalingrad is considered the bloodiest battle with the largest battlefield casualties in the history of conventional warfare. Under a carefully worked out plan, the Soviet Army inveigled an advancing and over-confident Nazi Army into Stalingrad and then inflicted severe casualties on the Nazi Army. Many of those Nazi soldiers whom the Soviet Army could not kill were killed by "Gen.Winter". The entire Sixth Army of the Nazis was trapped by the Soviet troops with the help of "Gen.Winter" and destroyed.
2. As the battle began on July 17,1942, the Nazi Disinformation machine worked overtime to tell an unsuspecting German people that the fall of Stalingrad and the collapse of the Soviet Army were imminent. The German people waited with bated breath for the news of the fall."Within two days", they were told. Two days became two weeks. Two weeks became two months. Two months became seven months. The battle ended disastrously for the Nazis on February 2, 1943. This marked the beginning of the end of the Nazi dreams in the Second World War.
3. Is one seeing a mini version of Stalingrad in the battle for Kilinochchi, the current headqurters of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)? It is difficult to say on the basis of the scanty information available from the battle front. From even this scanty information, two things are clear: Firstly, the Sri Lankan Army, which senses victory against the LTTE, has been doing well, but not as well as it claims to be. Secondly, the LTTE has been doing badly, but not as badly as projected to be by the disinformation machine of the Sri Lankan Army . The LTTE has shown that there is still a lot of fight left in it---- and a lot of intelligence and innovative thinking.
4. But intelligence and innovatrive thinking alone cannot win wars without resources and the wherewithal. The LTTE is deficient on both counts. But it has shown itself to be as resilient as the Taliban in Afghanistan and as fiercely-motivated. In 2003, the Americans thought and claimed that they had finished the Taliban once and for all. Their facile assumptions proved to be wrong. The Taliban came back----as if it has risen from its much-proclaimed grave--- and has been moving forward relentlessly. Neither air strikes by the most powerful Air Force in the world nor heavy artillery strikes by the most powerful Army in the world have been able to stop its advance.Reluctantly, senior NATO military commanders in Afghanistasn have started admitting that the war against the Taliban is unwinnable and that one has to search for a political solution with neither victory nor defeat for either side. It has not only become unwinnable unless the Taliban commits some serious tactical mistakes, but is also likely to become increasingly unaffordable thanks to the financial and economic melt-down in the US and the rest of the world.
5. The LTTE is calculating that if it can keep fighting against the Sri Lankan Army for some more months, a prolonged war against the LTTE could become as unwinnable and as unaffordable for the rulers of Sri Lanka as a prolonged war against the Taliban for the NATO powers. The rulers of Sri Lanka are living in a fool's paradise if they think that China and Pakistan would come to their rescue if the Government of India stops assisting them under pressure from public opinion in Tamil Nadu. The Pakistani economy is on the verge of a collapse. Even the Chinese were reluctant to help out their time-tested friend as they call Pakistan, as President Asif Ali Zardari found to his dismay when he visited China recently. The Pakistan Army is reeling under one set-back after another inflicted on it by the Taliban. To think that the Pakistan Army would rush to Sri Lanka to spite India would be the height of stupidity.
6. The Chinese, who are increasingly worried over the impact of the recession in the US on their manufacturing industries, which are heavily dependent on the US market, are hugging tight their foreign exchange holdings. They were reluctant to make any definitive
commitment of help to Zardari. They are even showing a decline of interest in further developing the Gwadar port project. In a world beset with the most serious economic crisis it has known since the Great Depression of the 1930s, everybody, including China, is interested in saving every dollar and cent he can. Nobody wants a foreign adventure, which might drain off their depleting resources. If the Sri Lankan Army thinks that China would try to rush in if India stops helping, it is in for a disappointment.
7. The LTTE is calculating that if it can keep fighting against the Sri Lankan Army for some more weeks, "Gen.Monsoon" and "Gen.Recession" could put an end to the pipedreams of the Sri Lankan Army of a definitive victory over the LTTE.
8. Will its calculations prove right or will they be belied? Whatever happens, one thing seems likely---- there is going to be no definitive victory or no definitive defeat for either side in the on-going war.
9. Annexed is an AFP despatch on the present ground situation in the Kilinochchi area.( 20-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi. and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
Tigers blunt Sri Lanka's drive to capture powerbase
COLOMBO, Oct 20, 2008 (AFP) - Dogged resistance by Tamil Tiger guerrillas appears to have held up a Sri Lankan military offensive in the north aimed at smashing the rebels' de facto state, analysts and military sources say.
A bullish government earlier this month said it was poised to capture the Tigers' Kilinochchi powerbase, 330 kilometres (206 miles) north of Colombo.
That drive, however, could take longer than anticipated with the separatist Tigers digging in, an army stretching to defend territory already seized, and poor weather hampering operations, the sources say.
Security forces had banked on a quick fall of Kilinochchi, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam's (LTTE's) political capital.
In early October the army said it was within two kilometres, but since then there has been little forward movement and monsoon rains have also slowed the troops' advance.
The increased resistance in recent weeks is in sharp contrast to an earlier LTTE fallback that enabled troops to move rapidly into rebel territory.
'Troops operating in the south of Kilinochchi are making progress, though they have not shown a rapid progress within the past few days,' said defence analyst Ranil Wijayapala in the state-run Daily News.
He blamed adverse weather, with heavy rains currently lashing the north.
Military sources said increased air attacks have failed to soften up Tiger defences for ground troops to smash through, while the army is stretched.
'With the rapid advance last month, the military is also forced to tie down a lot of soldiers to protect areas newly captured from the Tigers,' a military officer who declined to be named said.
'The Tigers won't be able to hold Kilinochchi for too long, but they can delay the fall,' the officer said.
Aid sources who have had rare access to the region say the guerrillas have moved civilians out of Kilinochchi and appeared to be digging in by building new bunkers.
Losing Kilinochchi would be a major blow to the Tigers, who set up the town as capital of their mini-state after taking the area from government forces 10 years ago.
Sri Lanka's military moved to take the town after their success in driving the Tigers from their eastern strongholds in July last year. The military has been keen to replicate that success in the north.
Previous attempts to take Kilinochchi using large columns of troops failed because Tigers deployed suicide bombers against them, persuading the military to switch to more effective smaller units of special forces.
'The success this time is due to the use of small groups across a broad front,' retired brigadier general Vipul Boteju said.
The military says it has killed about 7,500 Tigers since the start of this year, when the government pulled out of a moribund truce arranged and put in place by Norwegian peace brokers.
But there is also a heavy cost for the military, reflecting the bitterness of the conflict.
Figures tabled in parliament show 1,099 soldiers were killed in the first nine months of 2008, with September seeing the highest number of fatalities -- 200 killed and 997 wounded.
Almost 7,000 soldiers were wounded in the first nine months of the year and 396 civilians were killed.
The guerrillas have not released their casualty estimates but say they are putting up stiff resistance.
The government's 2009 defence budget suggests it is braced for a drawn-out military campaign. Colombo allocated a record 177 billion rupees (1.6 billion dollars) for defence in 2009, up from 166 billion rupees in 2008.
But the Tamil Tigers, who took up arms in 1972 for a separatist homeland, have shown in the past they can turn the tables on the military.
Barely six months after government troops captured the Jaffna peninsula in 1995, the Tigers over-ran a military base in the northeast, killing more than 1,200 soldiers.
The guerrillas also reversed military gains of the previous 19 months in a matter of five days in November 1999, dislodging the military from a key base at the entrance to the Jaffna peninsula.
October 19, 2008
Tamil Nadu - Grinding the Sri Lankan Grist
Guest Column by Dr Geeta Madhavan
The recent upsurge of opinion in certain political strata in Tamil Nadu by the conflict situation in Sri Lanka seems to have developed an ugly momentum of its own .Some sections of media have not only initiated this but have also channelled it in a particular direction drawing into the vortex a selection of people allegedly espousing the cause of the Tamils. There is bound to be scepticism in anyone with a reasonable enquiring mind what all the sudden surge of passion and the vehement waving of the Tamil banner is all about.
When the almost defunct Cease Fire Agreement (CFA), which was often repudiated over an extended period of time, was formally abrogated by the LTTE and the Sri Lankan Government, the charade of mediation ceased and the conflict escalated in the island. What took the LTTE by surprise was the confidence with which the Sri Lankan government initiated the military strategy in the East in Dec 2006. That the LTTE was pushed out and the East "liberated" from them in July 2007 and elections were held in May 2008 did not augur well for the organisation either. Since then its image as being an invincible guerrilla force suffered a setback although it did not lose any of its deadliness. The LTTE also expected persistent military engagement by the Sri Lankan government to cause sufficient international outrage for the military action to be stopped. The ban on LTTE by 30 countries including the by the EU, countries where they had established their global proxy and illegal businesses was also a major blow to the LTTE. Besides tactical losses over a period of time LTTE has also suffered organisational losses with death of its key members and strategists. Despite some desperate and theatrical attacks by the LTTE, their leader Mr.Prabhakaran had to face the fact that he was losing the earlier advantages he had acquired. There have always been some rabble rousers who persistently espoused the cause of the LTTE in Tamil Nadu blatantly. Not much credence was given to their utterances by the established parties; so the question why is it that at this precise moment in time such great interest has been generated in this issue.
The apparent rush to pledge allegiance to the Tamil population in the North brings three very important points to the fore .The first is the undeniable fact that runs contrary to all propaganda. While there is absolutely no doubt about the heavy civilian toll in the offensive by the Sri Lankan armed and air forces and the LTTE retaliation in the North whether there is a deliberate and sustained effort to obliterate the minority Tamils needs to be examined pragmatically.
Senior minister and APRC Chairman Prof. Tissa Vitharana has reiterated the intention of the Sri Lankan government to provide safe passage out of the conflict zone to all persons fleeing from there. Civilians fleeing from the conflict zone in the North have the choice of either moving to these safety havens provided by the Sri Lankan government and if they lack confidence in the Sri Lankan government of ensuring of their safety there, their obvious choice would be across the waters to the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, which has always been an preferred haven for them throughout this conflict. Statistics available with the Organisation for Eelam Refugee Rehabilitation (OfERR), indicate that there were large arrivals of refugees across the waters from May to October 2006, almost 2000 persons per month with over 5000 of them arriving in August 2006 .In 2008, these arrivals were an average of 200 per month with the highest number in the month of May, about 500 persons.. There is no indication of major influx of refugees in 2008 as in 2006. It stands to reason therefore that if they are caught in the conflict and are unable to leave since the Sri Lankan offensive in the North, it is the LTTE that is retaining the civilian population as human cover for them ensuring they do not flee. It also provides them with enough civilian casualties to stoke the allegations of genocide. There have been earlier reports of the LTTE preventing the civilian population from leaving during intense fighting in the East. The apparent question is the Tamil civilian population caught in the conflict are whose victims? It is indeed distressing that a term like genocide which carries with it the most abhorrent gruesome infliction on humanity is used loosely by the LTTE to garner support for its activities and is bandied about loosely by some sections of the media and the rabble rousers in Tamil Nadu.
Undoubtedly there has been constant clarification that the sympathy is for the suffering Tamil civilian population in the North and not the LTTE per se. But it is the LTTE that is still in control in that area and any cessation of hostilities will be a deemed a triumph for the organisation. Whether the LTTE really does still fight for the aspirations of the Tamils is up for inspection. The LTTE has systematically decimated all the moderate voices in Sri Lanka stymieing any possibility of reaching a peaceful solution. It is clear that there was never any intention to work towards any solution for the betterment of the Tamil people in Sri Lanka as it has never used any of the advantages that it held at different periods of time to negotiate - negotiating was not on its agenda. Driven by an insatiable desire for a separate Eelam state, the LTTE ensured that all other Tamil leaders were systematically decimated by various methods to constantly project itself as the sole upholder of the Tamil cause. Losing international support and sympathy the LTTE, with its dwindling manpower is now drumming up partisan feelings in Tamil Nadu playing the card of Tamil chauvinism. Those responding are not unaware but are busy shoring up their own support for the political advantage.
The other issue is the one that is pushed farthest and obviously has no relevance to the marching mob. To expect one sovereign nation to reign in another sovereign nation is unacceptable. Grave concerns can be expressed about violations of rules of engagement, worsening humanitarian conditions and gross infringement of human rights by any member of the international community on events in another State. However, no sovereign nation will allow any other nation to impose upon it any proposition which will thwart any of its strategy against forces which threaten its sovereignty and national integrity. Therefore, India has persistently sustained its stand that any solution for the ethnic question in Sri Lanka has to be found within the united structure of the nation. Seeking to divert this equitable policy maintained by India , by political pressure exerted by clamouring in Tamil Nadu in an attempt to force the Indian government to prescribe the methodology to be followed by the Sri Lankan government does not bode well for regional relations. Foreign policy of nations are driven by placing self interest of the nation uppermost .Therefore , call for any action that places India in a dilemma and leads to destabilisation of the political establishment within India can be construed as an action against the sovereignty and national integrity of India. In the wake of the latest development the Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh (on 18th Oct) has expressed that he is deeply concerned about the "deteriorating humanitarian situation" in the war-torn island and has urged the Sri Lankan government to protect Tamil civilians caught in the conflict. The request to the Sri Lankan government to exercise greater caution was addressed by the Sri Lankan President in the statement that assured the Indian Prime Minister that Sri Lanka is "mindful and appreciative of the concerns of India regarding the situation in the North, and aware of the context in which these matters have been raised". Any further prescription by the Indian government will be viewed as tacit support for the LTTE and will negate the good bilateral relations between the two countries. The role that is deemed worthy of India is, when the need eventually arises, to play a pro active part in the restoration of the economic and social conditions in the North. Basic infrastructures for economic growth of the region will have to be revived and educational establishments, medical facilities and other amenities rebuilt. It is here that India can play a major role and not in the capacity that some elements are now urging the Indian government.
The final issue is the status of minority in Sri Lanka and whether Tamil interests will be safeguarded eventually. Despite LTTE's pronouncements of a Sinhala backlash after its destruction and its projection that it is the single power keeping the majority Sinhala government at bay, there is a different scenario being observed after the liberation of the East. Minorities in any country (including our own) tend to be insecure because of their statistical disadvantage and real or perceived notions of marginalisation. There is sufficient evidence that in the past successive Sri Lankan government have not followed any policy to appease the Tamil minority. However, to use the past events to abrogate all attempts to find a lasting solution is the ploy of the LTTE to ensure its own existence. That there have been some statements coming out of the Sri Lankan establishments that the minority cannot use their status to gain undue advantage has been read as a threat to the existence of the minority. However, a demand by any minority within a sovereign nation under the guise of self determination for a separate homeland cannot be treated lightly. India, too, has been grappling with this problem in several pockets within its territory that threaten the national integrity. Self determination does not always mean territorial acquisition."International law provides no right of secession in the name of self determination" (R.Higgins-Peoples and Minorities in International Law , Martinus Nijhoff, 1995 p 33).The UN Charted inter alia does not approve of any changes in the territorial integrity and political independence of its member states. However politically convenient secession may seem, self determination was a principle upheld during the era of colonial rule but post decolonization the clamour for self determination has to be compatible with the question of state sovereignty. The rule is that self determination cannot involve changes of existing frontiers other than by agreement by the states concerned. It is apparent that a state is well within its sovereign power to prevent secession under the concept of self determination. It does place on the state a duty to address the issues of the minority and it is this context that India can play a role in ensuring that Sri Lankan government addresses the relevant issues genuinely after it has rid the north of secessionist forces. The conflict has not reached the final denouement yet and there is serious speculation from analysts as to how soon the end will come for there is no doubt that the end will come.
(Dr. Geeta Madhavan is an analyst working in areas related to international security and Terrorism. The views expressed are author’s own. She can be reached at: geeta.madhavan@gmail.com)
The recent upsurge of opinion in certain political strata in Tamil Nadu by the conflict situation in Sri Lanka seems to have developed an ugly momentum of its own .Some sections of media have not only initiated this but have also channelled it in a particular direction drawing into the vortex a selection of people allegedly espousing the cause of the Tamils. There is bound to be scepticism in anyone with a reasonable enquiring mind what all the sudden surge of passion and the vehement waving of the Tamil banner is all about.
When the almost defunct Cease Fire Agreement (CFA), which was often repudiated over an extended period of time, was formally abrogated by the LTTE and the Sri Lankan Government, the charade of mediation ceased and the conflict escalated in the island. What took the LTTE by surprise was the confidence with which the Sri Lankan government initiated the military strategy in the East in Dec 2006. That the LTTE was pushed out and the East "liberated" from them in July 2007 and elections were held in May 2008 did not augur well for the organisation either. Since then its image as being an invincible guerrilla force suffered a setback although it did not lose any of its deadliness. The LTTE also expected persistent military engagement by the Sri Lankan government to cause sufficient international outrage for the military action to be stopped. The ban on LTTE by 30 countries including the by the EU, countries where they had established their global proxy and illegal businesses was also a major blow to the LTTE. Besides tactical losses over a period of time LTTE has also suffered organisational losses with death of its key members and strategists. Despite some desperate and theatrical attacks by the LTTE, their leader Mr.Prabhakaran had to face the fact that he was losing the earlier advantages he had acquired. There have always been some rabble rousers who persistently espoused the cause of the LTTE in Tamil Nadu blatantly. Not much credence was given to their utterances by the established parties; so the question why is it that at this precise moment in time such great interest has been generated in this issue.
The apparent rush to pledge allegiance to the Tamil population in the North brings three very important points to the fore .The first is the undeniable fact that runs contrary to all propaganda. While there is absolutely no doubt about the heavy civilian toll in the offensive by the Sri Lankan armed and air forces and the LTTE retaliation in the North whether there is a deliberate and sustained effort to obliterate the minority Tamils needs to be examined pragmatically.
Senior minister and APRC Chairman Prof. Tissa Vitharana has reiterated the intention of the Sri Lankan government to provide safe passage out of the conflict zone to all persons fleeing from there. Civilians fleeing from the conflict zone in the North have the choice of either moving to these safety havens provided by the Sri Lankan government and if they lack confidence in the Sri Lankan government of ensuring of their safety there, their obvious choice would be across the waters to the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, which has always been an preferred haven for them throughout this conflict. Statistics available with the Organisation for Eelam Refugee Rehabilitation (OfERR), indicate that there were large arrivals of refugees across the waters from May to October 2006, almost 2000 persons per month with over 5000 of them arriving in August 2006 .In 2008, these arrivals were an average of 200 per month with the highest number in the month of May, about 500 persons.. There is no indication of major influx of refugees in 2008 as in 2006. It stands to reason therefore that if they are caught in the conflict and are unable to leave since the Sri Lankan offensive in the North, it is the LTTE that is retaining the civilian population as human cover for them ensuring they do not flee. It also provides them with enough civilian casualties to stoke the allegations of genocide. There have been earlier reports of the LTTE preventing the civilian population from leaving during intense fighting in the East. The apparent question is the Tamil civilian population caught in the conflict are whose victims? It is indeed distressing that a term like genocide which carries with it the most abhorrent gruesome infliction on humanity is used loosely by the LTTE to garner support for its activities and is bandied about loosely by some sections of the media and the rabble rousers in Tamil Nadu.
Undoubtedly there has been constant clarification that the sympathy is for the suffering Tamil civilian population in the North and not the LTTE per se. But it is the LTTE that is still in control in that area and any cessation of hostilities will be a deemed a triumph for the organisation. Whether the LTTE really does still fight for the aspirations of the Tamils is up for inspection. The LTTE has systematically decimated all the moderate voices in Sri Lanka stymieing any possibility of reaching a peaceful solution. It is clear that there was never any intention to work towards any solution for the betterment of the Tamil people in Sri Lanka as it has never used any of the advantages that it held at different periods of time to negotiate - negotiating was not on its agenda. Driven by an insatiable desire for a separate Eelam state, the LTTE ensured that all other Tamil leaders were systematically decimated by various methods to constantly project itself as the sole upholder of the Tamil cause. Losing international support and sympathy the LTTE, with its dwindling manpower is now drumming up partisan feelings in Tamil Nadu playing the card of Tamil chauvinism. Those responding are not unaware but are busy shoring up their own support for the political advantage.
The other issue is the one that is pushed farthest and obviously has no relevance to the marching mob. To expect one sovereign nation to reign in another sovereign nation is unacceptable. Grave concerns can be expressed about violations of rules of engagement, worsening humanitarian conditions and gross infringement of human rights by any member of the international community on events in another State. However, no sovereign nation will allow any other nation to impose upon it any proposition which will thwart any of its strategy against forces which threaten its sovereignty and national integrity. Therefore, India has persistently sustained its stand that any solution for the ethnic question in Sri Lanka has to be found within the united structure of the nation. Seeking to divert this equitable policy maintained by India , by political pressure exerted by clamouring in Tamil Nadu in an attempt to force the Indian government to prescribe the methodology to be followed by the Sri Lankan government does not bode well for regional relations. Foreign policy of nations are driven by placing self interest of the nation uppermost .Therefore , call for any action that places India in a dilemma and leads to destabilisation of the political establishment within India can be construed as an action against the sovereignty and national integrity of India. In the wake of the latest development the Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh (on 18th Oct) has expressed that he is deeply concerned about the "deteriorating humanitarian situation" in the war-torn island and has urged the Sri Lankan government to protect Tamil civilians caught in the conflict. The request to the Sri Lankan government to exercise greater caution was addressed by the Sri Lankan President in the statement that assured the Indian Prime Minister that Sri Lanka is "mindful and appreciative of the concerns of India regarding the situation in the North, and aware of the context in which these matters have been raised". Any further prescription by the Indian government will be viewed as tacit support for the LTTE and will negate the good bilateral relations between the two countries. The role that is deemed worthy of India is, when the need eventually arises, to play a pro active part in the restoration of the economic and social conditions in the North. Basic infrastructures for economic growth of the region will have to be revived and educational establishments, medical facilities and other amenities rebuilt. It is here that India can play a major role and not in the capacity that some elements are now urging the Indian government.
The final issue is the status of minority in Sri Lanka and whether Tamil interests will be safeguarded eventually. Despite LTTE's pronouncements of a Sinhala backlash after its destruction and its projection that it is the single power keeping the majority Sinhala government at bay, there is a different scenario being observed after the liberation of the East. Minorities in any country (including our own) tend to be insecure because of their statistical disadvantage and real or perceived notions of marginalisation. There is sufficient evidence that in the past successive Sri Lankan government have not followed any policy to appease the Tamil minority. However, to use the past events to abrogate all attempts to find a lasting solution is the ploy of the LTTE to ensure its own existence. That there have been some statements coming out of the Sri Lankan establishments that the minority cannot use their status to gain undue advantage has been read as a threat to the existence of the minority. However, a demand by any minority within a sovereign nation under the guise of self determination for a separate homeland cannot be treated lightly. India, too, has been grappling with this problem in several pockets within its territory that threaten the national integrity. Self determination does not always mean territorial acquisition."International law provides no right of secession in the name of self determination" (R.Higgins-Peoples and Minorities in International Law , Martinus Nijhoff, 1995 p 33).The UN Charted inter alia does not approve of any changes in the territorial integrity and political independence of its member states. However politically convenient secession may seem, self determination was a principle upheld during the era of colonial rule but post decolonization the clamour for self determination has to be compatible with the question of state sovereignty. The rule is that self determination cannot involve changes of existing frontiers other than by agreement by the states concerned. It is apparent that a state is well within its sovereign power to prevent secession under the concept of self determination. It does place on the state a duty to address the issues of the minority and it is this context that India can play a role in ensuring that Sri Lankan government addresses the relevant issues genuinely after it has rid the north of secessionist forces. The conflict has not reached the final denouement yet and there is serious speculation from analysts as to how soon the end will come for there is no doubt that the end will come.
(Dr. Geeta Madhavan is an analyst working in areas related to international security and Terrorism. The views expressed are author’s own. She can be reached at: geeta.madhavan@gmail.com)
UK releases UFO-related Documents
The files contain a wide range of UFO-related documents covering the years 1986–1992. If you want to find out more about close encounters over Gatwick Airport, alien abductions, stray satellites - and what the UK Government thought of it all - then this is the place to be. The files are in PDF format.
CLICK TO SEE ALL FILES
CLICK TO SEE ALL FILES
Military reform to change army structure. What about its substance?
00:00 | 17/ 10/ 2008
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti military commentator Ilya Kramnik) - The Russian army is changing. In addition to troop-size reduction, yet another reform is aimed at fundamentally changing personnel composition and structure, especially within the Ground Forces.
Until now, despite all recent reforms and cutbacks, the Russian Armed Forces largely remained a scaled-down version of the Soviet army, which was supposed to lead a full-scale war preceded by general mobilization. Under present circumstances, however, the probability of such a war is relatively low. In the case of a nuclear conflict, there will be no time for general mobilization, while a local conflict can be won without resorting to such measures. So what will the Russian military look like after reform?
The main change will be a move from the current vertical chain of command of the Armed Forces, a military district-army-division-regiment structure, to a military district-operative command-brigade regime, in order to increase efficiency by abolishing redundant elements. Mobile permanent readiness brigades, consisting of battalions, will be capable of operating tactical maneuver groups, either independently or together with other brigades under joint command.
In addition, each military district will establish rapid response brigades, which will most likely be formed out of airborne units.
Other important news is the plan to change the personnel composition of the Armed Forces, including reducing the commissioned officers' (CO) numbers from the current more than 400,000 (over 30% of the current 1,200,000 servicemen) to around 150,000 (15% of the future 1,000,000). The cutback will mostly affect logistics and staff COs and Generals, while the number of First and Second Lieutenants will increase from 50,000 to 60,000.
A reduction in CO numbers will be accompanied by a boost in the size of the sergeant corps. The sergeant corps will play a much larger role in the future Russian Army. Well-trained and experienced professional sergeants will ensure fast and effective training of privates, both contract soldiers and conscripts.
Although the new military reform is to be finished by 2012, some unofficial sources say the main reduction will take place within the next year. If this is true, a significant number of discharged officers will have to face the problem of civil readjustment. Official sources report, however, that the reduction will be done by attrition, by retiring COs who have exceeded their term of required service. This is difficult to believe, however.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti military commentator Ilya Kramnik) - The Russian army is changing. In addition to troop-size reduction, yet another reform is aimed at fundamentally changing personnel composition and structure, especially within the Ground Forces.
Until now, despite all recent reforms and cutbacks, the Russian Armed Forces largely remained a scaled-down version of the Soviet army, which was supposed to lead a full-scale war preceded by general mobilization. Under present circumstances, however, the probability of such a war is relatively low. In the case of a nuclear conflict, there will be no time for general mobilization, while a local conflict can be won without resorting to such measures. So what will the Russian military look like after reform?
The main change will be a move from the current vertical chain of command of the Armed Forces, a military district-army-division-regiment structure, to a military district-operative command-brigade regime, in order to increase efficiency by abolishing redundant elements. Mobile permanent readiness brigades, consisting of battalions, will be capable of operating tactical maneuver groups, either independently or together with other brigades under joint command.
In addition, each military district will establish rapid response brigades, which will most likely be formed out of airborne units.
Other important news is the plan to change the personnel composition of the Armed Forces, including reducing the commissioned officers' (CO) numbers from the current more than 400,000 (over 30% of the current 1,200,000 servicemen) to around 150,000 (15% of the future 1,000,000). The cutback will mostly affect logistics and staff COs and Generals, while the number of First and Second Lieutenants will increase from 50,000 to 60,000.
A reduction in CO numbers will be accompanied by a boost in the size of the sergeant corps. The sergeant corps will play a much larger role in the future Russian Army. Well-trained and experienced professional sergeants will ensure fast and effective training of privates, both contract soldiers and conscripts.
Although the new military reform is to be finished by 2012, some unofficial sources say the main reduction will take place within the next year. If this is true, a significant number of discharged officers will have to face the problem of civil readjustment. Official sources report, however, that the reduction will be done by attrition, by retiring COs who have exceeded their term of required service. This is difficult to believe, however.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
Emerging Cyber Threats Report 2009
Emerging Cyber Threats Report 2009
“Security experts consulted by GTISC believe cyberwarfare will accompany traditional military interaction more often in the years ahead. They expect it will also play a more shadowy role in attempts by antagonist nations to subvert the U.S. economy and infrastructure.” “Consider the cyber attacks that occurred between Russia and Georgia earlier this year as a model for military cyber engagements in 2009 and beyond,” READ COMPLETE REPORT
“Security experts consulted by GTISC believe cyberwarfare will accompany traditional military interaction more often in the years ahead. They expect it will also play a more shadowy role in attempts by antagonist nations to subvert the U.S. economy and infrastructure.” “Consider the cyber attacks that occurred between Russia and Georgia earlier this year as a model for military cyber engagements in 2009 and beyond,” READ COMPLETE REPORT
The Consequences of Nuclear Conflict between India and Pakistan
NRDC's nuclear experts think about the unthinkable, using state-of-the-art nuclear war simulation software to assess the crisis in South Asia.
The months-long military standoff between India and Pakistan intensified several weeks ago when suspected Islamic militants killed more than 30 people at an Indian base in the disputed territory of Kashmir. As U.S. diplomatic pressure to avert war intensifies, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is going to India and Pakistan this week to discuss with his South Asian counterparts the results of a classified Pentagon study that concludes that a nuclear war between these countries could result in 12 million deaths.
NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council) has conducted its own analysis of the consequences of nuclear war in South Asia. Prior to this most recent crisis we calculated two nuclear scenarios. The first assumes 10 Hiroshima-sized explosions with no fallout; the second assumes 24 nuclear explosions with significant radioactive fallout. Below is a discussion of the two scenarios in detail and an exploration of several additional issues regarding nuclear war in South Asia.
READ MORE
The months-long military standoff between India and Pakistan intensified several weeks ago when suspected Islamic militants killed more than 30 people at an Indian base in the disputed territory of Kashmir. As U.S. diplomatic pressure to avert war intensifies, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is going to India and Pakistan this week to discuss with his South Asian counterparts the results of a classified Pentagon study that concludes that a nuclear war between these countries could result in 12 million deaths.
NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council) has conducted its own analysis of the consequences of nuclear war in South Asia. Prior to this most recent crisis we calculated two nuclear scenarios. The first assumes 10 Hiroshima-sized explosions with no fallout; the second assumes 24 nuclear explosions with significant radioactive fallout. Below is a discussion of the two scenarios in detail and an exploration of several additional issues regarding nuclear war in South Asia.
READ MORE
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