B.RAMAN
The number of fatalities in the serial explosions in Assam on the forenoon of October 30,2008, has since gone up to 75, with the death of some of the injured in the hospitals. Another about 300 persons are undergoing treatment in the hospitals and some of them are stated to be in a serious condition.
2. According to the Police, there was a total of nine blasts timed to take place in four different cities or towns in the State between 11 and 11-30 AM.The most devastating in terms of casualties (35 killed), property damage and psychological effect on the people were the three in Guwahati, the Capital. In all these three cases, the improvised explosive device (IED) was kept in the boot of cars. The use of the boot of a car for keeping the explosives enabled the perpetrators to keep more explosive material than one could in a bicycle or in a tiffin box. In the Ahmedabad blasts of July,26,2008, the explosive device was kept in a car in the incident near a local hospital. Motor-vehicle- borne IEDs also cause more casualties due to the splinter effect and large fires, which have a traumatic effect on the local population. Many who rang me up after the Guwahati explosions remarked that the scene with cars burning reminded them of what they had been seeing on the TV about similar incidents in Baghdad. This kind of trauma one did not witness during the earlier serial explosions in three towns of Uttar Pradesh in November last year, in Jaipur in May,2008, in Bangalore and Ahmedabad in July, in New Delhi in September and in Agartala in October. The three cars had been kept parked with the IED near a vegetable and fruit market at Ganeshguri below a fly-over, in front of the office of the Kamrup Deputy Commissioner, and near a police station in the Fancy Bazaar. The Ganeshguri area is near the high security complex of the capital.
3. There were three explosions in the town of Kokrajhar in which 21 persons were killed. The IEDs were kept inside bags. A bag left in a local fish market seemed to have caused the largest number of casualties. Kokrajhar is the town headquarters of the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC). There were recently violent attacks on illegal immigrants from Bangladesh by sections of the Bodo tribals.Eleven persons were killed in two explosions in the Barpeta area. There was one explosion in the Bongaigon area, which does not appear to have caused any fatality. According to one report, the IED left in the Bongaigon area, which initially failed to explode, exploded after the police found it and were trying to defuse it. Ten persons were injured.
4. Forensic experts have not yet identified the explosives used, but the local police have been suspecting that the perpetrators had probably used a mix of the RDX and TNT. If they had used a high-power explosive like RDX and kept it in the boot of a car, the number of instant fatalities must have been more. Anyhow, one has to await the forensic report.
5. The traumatic nature of the explosions, the like of which Assam-----particularly Guwahati---- had not seen before caused an outburst of public anger against the authorities for failing to prevent the explosions. This necessitated the imposition of a curfew in some parts of the capital.
6. While Assam has been seeing for some years well synchronised serial blasts----either in different places in the same town or in different towns simultaneously--- those blasts were carried out with low-intensity explosives with low lethality. The synchronisation, the lethality and the expertise in assembling the IEDs exhibited in the October 30 blasts show the availability of higher lethality explosives and better expertise in using them. It is the assessment of the local police officers that the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), the ethnic terrorist group which has been fighting for an independent Assam, does not have the kind of material and expertise used on October 30. Only jihadi organisations----of local as well as Bangladeshi origin--- have such material and expertise. Among such organisations are the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami of Bangladesh known as HUJI (B) to distinguish it from the HUJI of Pakistan and the Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen (JUM), which had carried out nearly 450 synchronised explosions of low intensity IEDs in different places in Bangladesh on August 17,2005. The JUM's activities in Bangladesh are in a state of disarray following the arrest, trial and execution of some of its principal leaders by the Bangladesh authorities last year. While the Bangladesh authorities have been able to neutralise its top leadership, its middle-level leadership, infrastructure and trained cadres are still intact. Its capability for carrying out serial blasts of the nature seen on October 30 is unimpaired. The leadership, infrastructure and trained cadres of the HUJI (B) are also intact.
7. The Assamese police authorities, therefore, suspect that the explosions were more likely to have been carried out by one of these organisations or both, with the role of the ULFA, if at all there was any, limited to providing local logistics. The ULFA itself, through a spokesman based in Assam, has strongly denied that it had organised the explosions. The denial might have been motivated by the strong public anger over the blasts.
8.An organisation identifying itself by the abbreviation ISF (IM) has claimed responsibility for the blasts in a text message sent to a local TV channel in Guwahati. The authorities think that these abbreviations stand for Islamic Security Force (Indian Mujahideen). A local jihadi organisation by the name Islamic Security Force had come to notice in 2002, but it had not indulged in such activities so far. The text message might have been sent from a stolen mobile. Before the recent Olympics in Beijing, there was an explosion in a bus in Kunming. The perpetrator of that blast had also claimed responsibility in a text message sent from a cell phone. He could not be traced by the local authorities.
9.Before the visit of L.K.Advani, the leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), to Shillong on September 28 and 29, 2008, the local police and media reportedly received two E-mail messages holding out threats against him. One of these messages was from a local law student by name Mominul Haque. He was identified as the suspected originator of this message and arrested. The second message purported to be from what was described as the North-East branch of the IM. It was reportedly received by a local media house on September 25. The originator of the message gave his name as Ali Hussain Badr, field commander of the IM in the North-East. The message said: "Our main objective is to blow Advani to pieces. Our suicide bombers are ready for this prestigious assignment. Advani's Hindutva demand seems to push India into a fascist mould and, as is well known, the proclaimed and identified main enemy of the architects of Hindutva (are) the Muslims and the Christians. Apart from the Babri Masjid demolition to the Gujarat massacre and the recent attacks on churches in Orissa, Karnataka, and some parts of Madhya Pradesh, Advani has always tried to portray the Muslims and Christians as inveterate enemies of the Hindus.This will be history in the making in the state of Meghalaya when our suicide bombers will rock Shillong. Stop us if you can. We have already set our foot in Shillong to kill Advani." The Shillong Police took added precautions and no terrorist strike took place during Advani's visit. The serial blasts in Agartala took place two days after his visit to Shillong.
10 It is difficult to comment on the authenticity of these messages sent in the name of the IM because the originators had not given any indicator of authenticity. After the Jaipur and Ahmedabad blasts, the originators had given such indicators in the form of pics of the IEDs at the spot where they were left.
11. For the present, I am inclined to agree with the assessment of the local police that there is a greater evidence of jihadi involvement than ULFA involvement. The ULFA, being an ethnic terrorist organisation, generally takes care to target mainly non-Assamese from other parts of India such as Biharis and Sindhis working and living in Assam. It avoids indiscriminate placing of the IEDS which might kill Assamese as well as non-Assamese Indian nationals. The jihadis kill indiscriminately.The October 30 killings appear to have been indiscriminate
12. If one carefully analyses the various serial blasts which have taken place in different parts of India since November,2007, one could notice an organic, mushroom-like growth of jihadi terrorist cells in different parts of India----- self-radicalised, self-motivated, self-organised with self-planning and self-execution of the strikes---- with each cell motivated by its own local grievances, but with all these cells having an as yet invisible connectivity with a single brain and a single source of inspiration orchestrating them. The police of Ahmedabad, Delhi and Mumbai have been able to identify and arrest the individual perpetrators, but they still do not have an idea of the brain and the command and control of these perpetrators.
13.The intelligence agencies and the police have been repeatedly taken by surprise and there are many inadequacies in their performance.But I find it cruel to keep criticising them all the time because they can be effective only if the political leadership allows them to be effective. Despite the wave of serial blasts and mass casualties caused by the jihadis from our Muslim population, the present political leadership in the Government of India and the Congress (I) continues to be in a denial mode. For them, the Muslim votes in the forthcoming elections are more important than the lives of innocent men, women and children. They are not prepared to admit that some Muslim youth in our own Muslim population have taken to jihadi terrorism of Al Qaeda kind. To admit that would amount to admitting that their policy of mollycoddling the Muslims has proved counterproductive and is threatening the unity of the country and its well-being. One can see evidence of this disturbing mindset in the case of the Assam blasts of October 30 too. While the professionals have been saying that the jihadis have done it, the political leadership is not mentally prepared to blame the Indian jihadis.
14. In the face of the inaction by the Government of India, the Indian Mujahideen is growing, like the Internet, organically----- with nobody knowing where is the beginning of this Jihadi Net, where is its end, how the various jihadi cells are connected with each other and who is facilitating their connectivity. It is a frightening scenario.
15. The Annexure gives extracts from my earlier articles on the subject. (1-11-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
ANNEXURE
1.Despite the recent arrests by the police of Gujarat, Delhi and Mumbai of elements associated with the IM and the SIMI in connection with the serial blasts of the past, explosions continue to take place in a widespread area across the country. This clearly indicates that while the perpetrators of the previous blasts have been identified and in some cases arrested, the jihadi iceberg and its command and control are yet to be identified. The analytical reports regarding the IM and its linkages being carried by the media on the basis of police and intelligence briefings show that our police and intelligence agencies have been shifting from one speculative assessment to another. ( 2-10-08 Mushrooming Terrorism: Now Agartala http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers29/paper2866.html )
2.Pleasing the Muslims at any price----by closing our eyes to the depredations of the jihadi terrorists in our midst--- in order to retain their support during the election has become an important driving force of the electoral strategy of the ruling coalition. If hundreds of innocent civilians have to die as a result, so be it. Keeping the Muslims happy is more important than protecting the lives and property of the citizens of this country. Another disturbing trend has not received the attention it deserved. Many members of the Cabinet of Manmohan Singh and many leaders of the ruling coalition are reportedly unhappy with the intelligence agencies and the Police for speaking of home-grown jihadi terrorism. They are also reportedly unhappy with the Prime Minister himself for drawing attention to this in his address to the Governors' conference. They want that the focus should continue to be on Pakistan and the terrorists sponsored by Pakistan and that one should not highlight the role of the Indian Muslims in the global jihad. They are worried that the talk of home-grown jihadi terrorism might increase pressure on the Government to step up the monitoring of developments in the Indian Muslim community and identify and neutralise the Indian Muslims taking to jihadi terrorism. ( 20-9-08 JIHADIS HOLD INDIA TO RANSOM http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers29/paper2850.html )
3.If these blasts continue in this manner with the police and the intelligence agencies being perceived not only by our public, but also by foreign Governments and investors as helpless, it could come in the way of our efforts to invite more foreign investment. The foreign investors have till now shown signs of continuing confidence in the capability of our Police and security agencies to prevail over the terrorists sooner than later. But, if such incidents continue at regular intervals, this confidence could be shaken. (19-9-08 Counter-Terrorism: Act Now. http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers29/paper2848.html )
4.It should be apparent by now firstly, that we have only identified the tip of the jihadi iceberg in our midst. The iceberg itself remains unexposed. Secondly, we have not yet been able to identify the command and control of the IM. Thirdly, like Al Qaeda, the IM is divided into a number of autonomous cells each capable of operating independently without being affected by the identification and neutralisation of the cells involved in previous blasts. (13-9-08 Self-Styled Indian Mujahideen Strikes in New Delhi http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers29/paper2844.html )
November 01, 2008
October 31, 2008
How-To: Determining Source Reliability On The Internet (Link List)
http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/2008/10/how-to-determining-source-reliability.html
There are a number of great sites (mostly libraries) where there is good guidance on how to evaluate internet based sources. I intend, in this post, to list some of those sites and identify some up-and-coming tools. Finally, I want to highlight an important contribution to this literature that specifically pertains to intelligence analysis.
Virtually every good research library has a page dedicated to evaluating internet based sources. Some good examples include, among others:
The Library of Congress
Purdue's Library and Online Writing Lab
U Cal Berkeley's Library
and checklists from New Mexico State University Library, the Milner Library at Illinois State and the University of Wisconsin - Eau Claire's 10 C's
Beyond these resources there are also a couple of new automated tools that are available for checking the accuracy and reliability of some internet sites. Beyond those that look for malware (such as McAfee's Site Advisor), there are two products which I have found particularly interesting as they are primarily designed to examine content.
The first is SpinSpotter (a firefox extension). SpinSpotter (which is "very" beta right now) allows you to annotate web sites for "spin" and to view other people's evaluations on websites that have already been evaluated. At some point (although it is unclear when), a computer algorithm will kick in (once it has learned enough about how to spot spin from thousands of reader's input) and begin to automatically mark up pages. This is when the tool will get really interesting...
The second project, WikiTrust, developed by the University of California, Santa Cruz WikiLab, is designed to use data from any MediaWiki based product (such as Wikipedia or Intellipedia) and, in turn, be able to automatically indicate how "trustworthy" the content of that wiki is. You can actually see a demo of it here based on 2007 data. You can also download the software that will allow you to apply the trust algorithm to any MediaWiki based wiki today. The problem is, of course, that the person applying the code also has to control the wiki (Hmmm...I wonder if Intellipedia uses this...I wonder why Wikipedia doesn't use it now...).
None of these solutions specifically had the intelligence professional in mind, however. This has changed recently with Dax Norman's recent online publication of his 2001 Joint Military Intelligence College/National Defense Intelligence College thesis, usefully titled How To Identify Credible Sources On The Web. Dax is the curriculum manager at the National Cryptologic School and one of the most intelligent and insightful people I know. Possessed of deep experience and a darn good mind, he has spent a good bit of time reflecting on how best to improve the analytic process. As a result, he is always worth listening to.
His thesis is particularly well worth the read for anyone who is interested in the subject. While much as been done in the area of assessing internet sources (see above), his take-away -- a research based checklist of key variables in assessing source reliability -- is as good today as it was in 2001.
If you are interested in the details of this scoring system, how it was derived and validated, I will have to refer you to the thesis. Using the checklist, however, is dead easy. Just check the blocks, add up the total and compare it to the scale on top. While I am virtually certain that Dax would not claim that this checklist should replace analytic judgment, I do think that it is far better than a guess-timate or, even worse, no assessment of source reliability at all.
Russia's western security outpost
31 Oct 2008
Despite fence-mending with the West, Belarus takes further steps toward developing security ties with its closest ally, Russia, Sergei Blagov writes for ISN Security Watch.
By Sergei Blagov in Moscow for ISN Security Watch
Belarus, dubbed Europe's last dictatorship, has reiterated pledges to create a "union state" with Russia and act as Moscow's security outpost in the West. In November, Russia and Belarus are due to unify their air defense systems in an apparent bid to counter NATO's eastward advance.
It is believed that Russia has been considering extending its air and missile defense systems to neighboring Belarus. On 23 October, General Alexander Zelin, commander of Russia's air force, said that the joint air defense project with Belarus would serve as a western outpost for Russia's aerial defense.
In recent years, Russian officials repeatedly claimed that the agreement on a united Russia-Belarus air defense system remained ready for signing, but the deal has remained elusive due to economic disagreements between the two countries.
But now Minks is growing wary of what it perceives as increasing international tension. According to the traditionally outspoken Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, in a 23 October statement, the NATO military-political bloc has become active to the point that it must view the world as on the brink of war.
Apparently following Russia's example, Belarus has done some saber-rattling of its own. Earlier in October, Lukashenko pledged to modernize the country's armed forces by 2015.
"Today, we are able to mobilize up to 500,000 men," Lukashenko announced on 21 October, following joint war games with Russia.
The Belarusian leader also said his country's army would play a major role in defending the Union State of Belarus and Russia from the western direction. It was hardly coincidental that on the same day, Russia announced it would give US$2 billion in loan to Belarus.
In recent weeks, Russia and Belarus have intensified top-level contacts. On 25 October, Lukashenko traveled to Moscow for talks with his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev. Both leaders were said to discuss economic and military ties, but no concrete agreements were announced after the talks. Lukashenko voiced support for Russia's initiative to negotiate a new pan-European security treaty, a plan apparently aimed at undermining, or balancing, NATO's clout.
For years, Russia's cheap energy supplies to Belarus have been instrumental in sustaining the authoritarian regime of Lukashenko, who swept to victory in 1994 on promises of reuniting the nation of 10 million people with Russia's 141 million. In 1997, both nations signed a treaty pledging a Russia-Belarus union, but these agreements have yet to materialize.
The Kremlin's backing allowed the Belarus regime to largely ignore western pressure. In March 2006, Lukashenko secured a third term in office with Russian support, but the West slammed the vote as flawed. However, the European Union recently lifted some sanctions against Lukashenko's regime in an apparent bid to limit Belarus' dependence on Russia.
Meanwhile, Moscow has been keen to band together with Minsk due to Russia's significant security interests in Belarus. The two former Soviet nations signed an agreement in 1995, which allowed the Russian military to free use of an early warning radar hub in Baranovichi until 2020. The facility and its some 1,200 staff is designed to provide early warning of missile attacks from Western Europe.
Russian officials have made it clear they view a western military assault well within a realm of possibility. On 22 October, Vladimir Komoyedov, a member of the defense committee of the State Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, warned that NATO could strike Russia with more than 2,500 cruise missiles.
"A nuclear shield is our only reliable defense," Komoyedov, a former commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, said in a statement.
Subsequently, Russia has repeatedly warned it was upgrading its nuclear deterrence systems in response to NATO's continued eastward advance and the US' missile shield moves in Europe. On 22 October, General Nikolai Solovtsov, commander of Russia's Strategic Missile Forces, announced that forces under his command were being equipped with new systems to penetrate US anti-ballistic missile defense, including mobile missile systems.
Earlier in October, Russia held unprecedented strategic missile demonstrations, including the firing of ballistic missiles from nuclear submarines and launching cruise missiles with strategic bombers in highly sophisticated war games. The missile demonstrations were apparently designed to warn the West against pressuring Russia.
Simultaneously, Moscow was thought to be increasingly relying on strategic weapons in its security planning, including missile and air defense plans.
In the meantime, Belarus has hinted at its own desires for strategic rearmament. In November 2007, Belarus authorities criticized US sanctions and accused Washington of violating its commitments towards Belarus. Minsk recalled that the US had promised to refrain from any sanctions when Belarus became a non-nuclear state in early 1990s as Belarus-based nuclear weapons were moved to Russia. In other words, Minsk has indirectly cited western economic sanctions as a possible pretext for returning some strategic weapons, presumably Russian, to its soil.
Moscow continues to support Belarus, apparently counting on this post-Soviet state as a buffer between Russia and the West, and the Russian military clearly views Belarus as an important outpost. Yet it remains to be seen whether this outpost could become truly strategic.
Sergei Blagov is a Moscow-based correspondent for ISN Security Watch.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author only, not the International Relations and Security Network (ISN).
Despite fence-mending with the West, Belarus takes further steps toward developing security ties with its closest ally, Russia, Sergei Blagov writes for ISN Security Watch.
By Sergei Blagov in Moscow for ISN Security Watch
Belarus, dubbed Europe's last dictatorship, has reiterated pledges to create a "union state" with Russia and act as Moscow's security outpost in the West. In November, Russia and Belarus are due to unify their air defense systems in an apparent bid to counter NATO's eastward advance.
It is believed that Russia has been considering extending its air and missile defense systems to neighboring Belarus. On 23 October, General Alexander Zelin, commander of Russia's air force, said that the joint air defense project with Belarus would serve as a western outpost for Russia's aerial defense.
In recent years, Russian officials repeatedly claimed that the agreement on a united Russia-Belarus air defense system remained ready for signing, but the deal has remained elusive due to economic disagreements between the two countries.
But now Minks is growing wary of what it perceives as increasing international tension. According to the traditionally outspoken Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, in a 23 October statement, the NATO military-political bloc has become active to the point that it must view the world as on the brink of war.
Apparently following Russia's example, Belarus has done some saber-rattling of its own. Earlier in October, Lukashenko pledged to modernize the country's armed forces by 2015.
"Today, we are able to mobilize up to 500,000 men," Lukashenko announced on 21 October, following joint war games with Russia.
The Belarusian leader also said his country's army would play a major role in defending the Union State of Belarus and Russia from the western direction. It was hardly coincidental that on the same day, Russia announced it would give US$2 billion in loan to Belarus.
In recent weeks, Russia and Belarus have intensified top-level contacts. On 25 October, Lukashenko traveled to Moscow for talks with his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev. Both leaders were said to discuss economic and military ties, but no concrete agreements were announced after the talks. Lukashenko voiced support for Russia's initiative to negotiate a new pan-European security treaty, a plan apparently aimed at undermining, or balancing, NATO's clout.
For years, Russia's cheap energy supplies to Belarus have been instrumental in sustaining the authoritarian regime of Lukashenko, who swept to victory in 1994 on promises of reuniting the nation of 10 million people with Russia's 141 million. In 1997, both nations signed a treaty pledging a Russia-Belarus union, but these agreements have yet to materialize.
The Kremlin's backing allowed the Belarus regime to largely ignore western pressure. In March 2006, Lukashenko secured a third term in office with Russian support, but the West slammed the vote as flawed. However, the European Union recently lifted some sanctions against Lukashenko's regime in an apparent bid to limit Belarus' dependence on Russia.
Meanwhile, Moscow has been keen to band together with Minsk due to Russia's significant security interests in Belarus. The two former Soviet nations signed an agreement in 1995, which allowed the Russian military to free use of an early warning radar hub in Baranovichi until 2020. The facility and its some 1,200 staff is designed to provide early warning of missile attacks from Western Europe.
Russian officials have made it clear they view a western military assault well within a realm of possibility. On 22 October, Vladimir Komoyedov, a member of the defense committee of the State Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, warned that NATO could strike Russia with more than 2,500 cruise missiles.
"A nuclear shield is our only reliable defense," Komoyedov, a former commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, said in a statement.
Subsequently, Russia has repeatedly warned it was upgrading its nuclear deterrence systems in response to NATO's continued eastward advance and the US' missile shield moves in Europe. On 22 October, General Nikolai Solovtsov, commander of Russia's Strategic Missile Forces, announced that forces under his command were being equipped with new systems to penetrate US anti-ballistic missile defense, including mobile missile systems.
Earlier in October, Russia held unprecedented strategic missile demonstrations, including the firing of ballistic missiles from nuclear submarines and launching cruise missiles with strategic bombers in highly sophisticated war games. The missile demonstrations were apparently designed to warn the West against pressuring Russia.
Simultaneously, Moscow was thought to be increasingly relying on strategic weapons in its security planning, including missile and air defense plans.
In the meantime, Belarus has hinted at its own desires for strategic rearmament. In November 2007, Belarus authorities criticized US sanctions and accused Washington of violating its commitments towards Belarus. Minsk recalled that the US had promised to refrain from any sanctions when Belarus became a non-nuclear state in early 1990s as Belarus-based nuclear weapons were moved to Russia. In other words, Minsk has indirectly cited western economic sanctions as a possible pretext for returning some strategic weapons, presumably Russian, to its soil.
Moscow continues to support Belarus, apparently counting on this post-Soviet state as a buffer between Russia and the West, and the Russian military clearly views Belarus as an important outpost. Yet it remains to be seen whether this outpost could become truly strategic.
Sergei Blagov is a Moscow-based correspondent for ISN Security Watch.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author only, not the International Relations and Security Network (ISN).
PAKISTAN: Swat on the verge of civil war
By Khurshid Khan
www.valleyswat.net
Valley swat has been divided in two administrative units Tehsil swat and Thesil Matta. Both have their separate councils. Matta Tehsil council consists of thirteen Union Councils. Abdul Jabar Khan is its elected Tehsil Nazim while Naib- Nazim Zakirullah khan has been killed in the recent imbroglio in swat. The area is called Bar Swat (Upper swat) in local vernacular. Matta Town is the main trading center as well as the administration headquarter some 22 miles away from Mingawara city. The total population of upper swat is 251368 according to the 1998 censuses. Its total area is about 683 square kilometers. The population annual growth rate is 3.04 %.
Upper swat has mailnly divided into two territories Shamizai and Sibujni Sebat khel on the basis of Wesh (land distribution system,). The inhabitants of Shamizai belong to Yusufzai tribe of Pukhtuns and are lead by Afzal khan. Subjini Sebat khel inhabited by Nazar Khel and Shama khel. Nazar khel are Shinwaries while Shama khel belongs to Tarkalani tribe. Sebujni also has Balol Khel and sena Khel. The people of labat, Gwalerai and above are Sena Khel
Upper Swat consists of two main valleys, Sakhra and Rodingar. Arnwai stream irrigates Rodingar valley up to Totkai While Bawrai stream irrigates Sakhra valley up to Bagderai. Shawarai stream irrigates the narrow valley of Shawar. This is the unfortunate and notorious valley where Gatt and Pewchar villages are situated. The national and international media has brought these areas into the spotlight in the recent time.
These valleys are well known for their natural beauty, fertile soil and agricultural produce. Fruit orchards are the main cash crop of the valleys. The famous Swat Apples are cultivated and produced here. The natural forests of Pines and Deodars and medicinal plants are also the income generation sources. The inhabitants of the area are considered rich and prosper people in swat. They stick to the strict code of Pukhtunwali. But unfortunately the whole swat in general and upper swat in particular is in the venomous tentacles of terror since last year. The significant and influential elders of the area have been murdered, migrated or detained in their houses and hujras. The houses of many influential are incinerated and looted.
The important strategic points over the heights across the valley are under the control of the security forces while the militants control the villages and hamlets in the outskirts of proper Matta Town. Explosions, kidnappings and murders have become day to day affairs in the area which are augmented by infinite and endless curfews. Most of the fruits and vegetables are wasted away due to non- accessibility to the main markets.
Last Sunday, October 26, 2008, the miserable people of the area encountered still another terrible situation. The local elders of Biha, Gwalerai and Bartanra union councils formed a jirga congregated in the main Mosque of Gwalerai. The jirga was debating on the issue of deteriorating law and order situation, security forces’ indiscriminate shellings and air strikes and the consequent public casualties, injuries and private property’s destruction. The main jirga formed a delegation and sent it to the official of the security forces for negotiation over the alarming deteriorating condition of the area. It is reported that the members of the delegation were ambushed when they were returning. It is also said that the waiting jirga members in the mosque were also attacked killing several elders and about 70 were abducted. Several of the abducted elders were butchered ruthlessly and their bodies were thrown in the fields. The local people said that most of the dwellers of the area remained busy in burying the deceased on Monday. Most of the renowned elders of these three union councils were slaughtered in this onslaught. In one of the village, Gwalerai, six members of the same family were killed including four brothers. One of the local journalists says “thirty funerals at a time in the area presented the spectacles of dooms day. This incident has wiped out the bitter memories of Bartanra air strikes”.
Militants freed four abducted leaders on Wednesday on the condition that they will deliver their message to the local people and inform them of their strict conditions after which the other abductees will be freed. The leaders met the local elders and persuaded them to conform to the conditions of Militants. The conditions are; that no one will even think about organizing a force against Militants and will never be a member of such an enterprise. That they will never support Pir Samiullah and will never meet the security forces. And that Militant will freely patrol the area and no one will put hurdles in their way.
After ensuring that these conditions will be followed in true spirits, the militants freed sixty five more abductees Thursday.
The local people say that raising a Lakhkar / Lashkar (a tribal force taking the field under the tribal banner at the time of need without any payment, at their own’s cost; arms and ammunitions) is not to wage war against militants and make ground for security forces arrival but to establish peace and harmony in the area, reopen the educational institutes and restore traffic on the roads. But instead of achieving these peaceful objectives we received only bloodshed and became victims of bloodshed and destruction only.
The security forces banned the local journalists and media from coverage the event and imposed infinite curfew in the area.
This situation has brought both Taliban and public face to face; the militants are in the “do or die” situation. The concept of revenge is so deep rooted in the Pukhtun society that it is next to impossible to remove this code from this society. This volatile situation has given rise to two speculations; people in the same household will raise guns in favour or against militants and the chances of the formation of Lakhkar are fading. If this war spreads out to each household, clan and village, the destruction and annihilation will engender situation of hair raising.
This civil war must be stopped immediately which can be accomplished through proper co-ordination among local, district and provincial authorities. A peace treaty between the militant and the local people and the withdrawal of militants from these areas can halt the disastrous civil war.
Another alarming development in the area is the mysterious appearance of a new and significant figure, Pir Samiullah, of Tangar village of the area. He has his own circle of followers and admirers which spreads out to considerable area. In addition to this, the Gujar community also supports him due to ethnic affiliation. Local people said that Pir Samiullah is the only potential rival of militant leader Fazlullah in the area. A local Daily reported that security forces are taking extraordinary interest in this new development. The daily also reported the landing of military helicopters in Pir Samiullah‘s village on Monday.
If a war erupts between Pir Samiullah and militant leader Fazlullah, then the eye opening example of Bara in Khyber Agency should be glanced first .Thus, this war may take the shape of sectarianism which will be another shocking and new development in the history of swat. The alarming development will be the war between the militants and the local people in which the major losers will be the public. Uncountable human lives will be lost and properties damaged as a consequence of this venture.
The elders, representatives of swat and the provincial government who has its peace ambassador, should raise to the occasion and stop the impending calamity which has not happened yet.
It is also the responsibility of organizations working for peace, print and electronic media to come forward to make the ground work for the peace deal. If this movement does not commence now, then perhaps, it will not be needed.
Email: bazirkhan@gmail.com
www.valleyswat.net
Valley swat has been divided in two administrative units Tehsil swat and Thesil Matta. Both have their separate councils. Matta Tehsil council consists of thirteen Union Councils. Abdul Jabar Khan is its elected Tehsil Nazim while Naib- Nazim Zakirullah khan has been killed in the recent imbroglio in swat. The area is called Bar Swat (Upper swat) in local vernacular. Matta Town is the main trading center as well as the administration headquarter some 22 miles away from Mingawara city. The total population of upper swat is 251368 according to the 1998 censuses. Its total area is about 683 square kilometers. The population annual growth rate is 3.04 %.
Upper swat has mailnly divided into two territories Shamizai and Sibujni Sebat khel on the basis of Wesh (land distribution system,). The inhabitants of Shamizai belong to Yusufzai tribe of Pukhtuns and are lead by Afzal khan. Subjini Sebat khel inhabited by Nazar Khel and Shama khel. Nazar khel are Shinwaries while Shama khel belongs to Tarkalani tribe. Sebujni also has Balol Khel and sena Khel. The people of labat, Gwalerai and above are Sena Khel
Upper Swat consists of two main valleys, Sakhra and Rodingar. Arnwai stream irrigates Rodingar valley up to Totkai While Bawrai stream irrigates Sakhra valley up to Bagderai. Shawarai stream irrigates the narrow valley of Shawar. This is the unfortunate and notorious valley where Gatt and Pewchar villages are situated. The national and international media has brought these areas into the spotlight in the recent time.
These valleys are well known for their natural beauty, fertile soil and agricultural produce. Fruit orchards are the main cash crop of the valleys. The famous Swat Apples are cultivated and produced here. The natural forests of Pines and Deodars and medicinal plants are also the income generation sources. The inhabitants of the area are considered rich and prosper people in swat. They stick to the strict code of Pukhtunwali. But unfortunately the whole swat in general and upper swat in particular is in the venomous tentacles of terror since last year. The significant and influential elders of the area have been murdered, migrated or detained in their houses and hujras. The houses of many influential are incinerated and looted.
The important strategic points over the heights across the valley are under the control of the security forces while the militants control the villages and hamlets in the outskirts of proper Matta Town. Explosions, kidnappings and murders have become day to day affairs in the area which are augmented by infinite and endless curfews. Most of the fruits and vegetables are wasted away due to non- accessibility to the main markets.
Last Sunday, October 26, 2008, the miserable people of the area encountered still another terrible situation. The local elders of Biha, Gwalerai and Bartanra union councils formed a jirga congregated in the main Mosque of Gwalerai. The jirga was debating on the issue of deteriorating law and order situation, security forces’ indiscriminate shellings and air strikes and the consequent public casualties, injuries and private property’s destruction. The main jirga formed a delegation and sent it to the official of the security forces for negotiation over the alarming deteriorating condition of the area. It is reported that the members of the delegation were ambushed when they were returning. It is also said that the waiting jirga members in the mosque were also attacked killing several elders and about 70 were abducted. Several of the abducted elders were butchered ruthlessly and their bodies were thrown in the fields. The local people said that most of the dwellers of the area remained busy in burying the deceased on Monday. Most of the renowned elders of these three union councils were slaughtered in this onslaught. In one of the village, Gwalerai, six members of the same family were killed including four brothers. One of the local journalists says “thirty funerals at a time in the area presented the spectacles of dooms day. This incident has wiped out the bitter memories of Bartanra air strikes”.
Militants freed four abducted leaders on Wednesday on the condition that they will deliver their message to the local people and inform them of their strict conditions after which the other abductees will be freed. The leaders met the local elders and persuaded them to conform to the conditions of Militants. The conditions are; that no one will even think about organizing a force against Militants and will never be a member of such an enterprise. That they will never support Pir Samiullah and will never meet the security forces. And that Militant will freely patrol the area and no one will put hurdles in their way.
After ensuring that these conditions will be followed in true spirits, the militants freed sixty five more abductees Thursday.
The local people say that raising a Lakhkar / Lashkar (a tribal force taking the field under the tribal banner at the time of need without any payment, at their own’s cost; arms and ammunitions) is not to wage war against militants and make ground for security forces arrival but to establish peace and harmony in the area, reopen the educational institutes and restore traffic on the roads. But instead of achieving these peaceful objectives we received only bloodshed and became victims of bloodshed and destruction only.
The security forces banned the local journalists and media from coverage the event and imposed infinite curfew in the area.
This situation has brought both Taliban and public face to face; the militants are in the “do or die” situation. The concept of revenge is so deep rooted in the Pukhtun society that it is next to impossible to remove this code from this society. This volatile situation has given rise to two speculations; people in the same household will raise guns in favour or against militants and the chances of the formation of Lakhkar are fading. If this war spreads out to each household, clan and village, the destruction and annihilation will engender situation of hair raising.
This civil war must be stopped immediately which can be accomplished through proper co-ordination among local, district and provincial authorities. A peace treaty between the militant and the local people and the withdrawal of militants from these areas can halt the disastrous civil war.
Another alarming development in the area is the mysterious appearance of a new and significant figure, Pir Samiullah, of Tangar village of the area. He has his own circle of followers and admirers which spreads out to considerable area. In addition to this, the Gujar community also supports him due to ethnic affiliation. Local people said that Pir Samiullah is the only potential rival of militant leader Fazlullah in the area. A local Daily reported that security forces are taking extraordinary interest in this new development. The daily also reported the landing of military helicopters in Pir Samiullah‘s village on Monday.
If a war erupts between Pir Samiullah and militant leader Fazlullah, then the eye opening example of Bara in Khyber Agency should be glanced first .Thus, this war may take the shape of sectarianism which will be another shocking and new development in the history of swat. The alarming development will be the war between the militants and the local people in which the major losers will be the public. Uncountable human lives will be lost and properties damaged as a consequence of this venture.
The elders, representatives of swat and the provincial government who has its peace ambassador, should raise to the occasion and stop the impending calamity which has not happened yet.
It is also the responsibility of organizations working for peace, print and electronic media to come forward to make the ground work for the peace deal. If this movement does not commence now, then perhaps, it will not be needed.
Email: bazirkhan@gmail.com
LTTE Air Wing Strikes Again
by B. Raman
The air wing of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) carried out two attacks within an interval of about 90 minutes on a military target in the North and an economic target in Colombo on the night of October 28, 2008. This is the seventh operation by the LTTE's air wing since it went into action in March last year.
2. Tamilnet, the pro-LTTE web site in the English language, which has again been giving battle front news after being silent on this subject for some days last week, reported as follows on the LTTE air attacks of October 28: " The LTTE carried out an air attack on the Thallaadi military base, the main artillery and Multi-Barrel Rocket Launcher (MBRL) launchpad of the Sri Lanka Army in Mannaar around 10:30 p.m., dropping three bombs on the base. The Tiger aircrafts then proceeded to Colombo and dropped two bombs on the Kelanitissa power station, while Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF) bombers were searching for LTTE aircrafts in the skies over Kilinochchi between 11:00 and 11:30 a.m. The SLAF aircrafts were flying over the suburbs of Mullaiththeevu and Puthukkudiyiruppu with para lights focused on the ground from 1:30 a.m. on October 29. An SLAF reconnaissance aircraft was continuously circling over Vanni from 11:00 p.m. Immediately after the Tiger air raid on the Thallaadi garrison, the SLAF fighters were circling over the suburbs of Kilinochchi, Iranaimadu, Visuvamadu and Murasumoaddai areas between 11:00 and 11:30 p.m. The SLAF aircrafts were using para lights in their search mission over Vanni. Civilian sources said the Tiger aircrafts flew back to Vanni over Mannaar. "It did not specifically mention the safe return of the aircraft to their base.
3. However, www.puthinam.com, the pro-LTTE website in the Tamil language, carried the following official announcement purporting to be from the LTTE: "At 10-20 PM on Tuesday night, Air Tigers of the LTTE bombed the Thallaadi military base in the Mannaar region. The military base sustained heavy damages. Many were killed and injured. At 11-45 PM on Tuesday the Air Tigers carried out a successful attack on the Kelanitissa power station in Colombo. After carrying out these strikes, the aircrafts returned safely to base."
4. Pro-LTTE sources have tried to give the impression that more than one LTTE aircraft were involved in the two attacks. The report of the Reuters correspondent claimed that only one aircraft was involved in the attack on the military base. Sri Lankan military sources have also spoken of only one aircraft being involved in the attack on the Colombo power station. Pro-LTTE sources have claimed that the same aircraft or aircrafts, after dropping the bombs on the military base in the Mannaar area, flew to Colombo to bomb the power station. The military base attacked is about 250 Kms to the north of Colombo. Would the aircraft or aircrafts, which must have been carrying at least two bombs each, have had sufficient fuel to be able to take off from the Vanni region, bomb the military base, fly to Colombo, bomb the power station and then return to their secret base?
5. Pro-LTTE sources have claimed that there were many fatalities and severe equipment damage in the military base, but according to Army sources, there were no fatalities and very little equipment damage. Only one security forces personnel was injured, they claimed. The power station admitted the death of one of its employees due to shock when the bomb or bombs fell. The administrative buildings and the cooling system sustained some damage resulting in a fire, which was put out by the Fire Brigade. Pro-LTTE sources have claimed some damage to the turbines, but there are so far no reports of any serious disruption of the power supply in Colombo.
6. The attacks were tactically successful in the sense that the aircraft involved in the two attacks reportedly returned safely to base after dropping the bombs on the targets without being intercepted by planes of the Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF) or without being hit and brought down by the anti-aircraft defence. But their strategic significance is limited since they do not appear to have caused any damage of a serious nature. However, the attacks could have a psychological significance in maintaining the morale of the LTTE cadres and its supporters in the Northern and Eastern Provinces and in the overseas diaspora.
7. These attacks and the earlier strike by two officers of the Sea Tigers, one of them a woman, on two commercial ships used by the Sri Lankan Army for carrying military supplies to the Sri Lankan troops in the Kilinochchi area at the Kankesanthurai port on October 22, 2008, show that the LTTE's command and control is functioning well despite the losses suffered by it on the ground in the Vanni region during the current ground offensive by the Sri Lankan Army.
8. Military analysts have commented that since the LTTE started using its air wing in March last year, it has been emulating the tactics followed by North Korea during the Korean war of the 1950s. The tactics consisted of using small planes to surprise and embarrass the South Korean and American Air Force planes without achieving any strategic objective. Since the LTTE started using its planes, only in two instances were substantial human fatalities and equipment damage inflicted. The first was during the raid on the Anuradhapura training base of the SLAF in October last year and the second was during the attack on the Vavuniya military base on September 9, 2008. Both these raids were conducted jointly by the LTTE's planes from the air and suicide cadres from the ground. It is the suicide cadres on the ground, who caused the fatalities and most of the equipment damage. The role of the aircraft was essentially psychological, meant, inter alia, to divert the attention of the ground personnel of the Sri Lankan security forces. But the combined operations carried out successfully did show good qualities of co-ordination between air-borne and ground-based cadres. Whenever the LTTE planes have operated alone and not in conjunction with ground-based cadres, the results achieved were not significant operationally.
9. Aircraft operating alone without support from ground-based elements can cause substantial damage to an economic target if the bombs are powerful enough and the bombing is precise. The LTTE has carried out two bombings of economic targets so far----one against some petrol storage tanks in Colombo last year and the other against a power station in Colombo on the night of October 28. In both instances, the bombs were not powerful enough to cause serious equipment damage and the bombing was not precise. As a result, these two bombings failed to cause any economic dislocation.
10. The latest strikes like the previous ones once again highlighted the weak night operational capabilities of the SLAF and the weak anti-aircraft defences. They were neither able to bring the planes down through anti-aircraft fire, nor able to chase the raiding planes and force them down nor identify the place of landing of the LTTE planes as they returned to base and strike them from the air. It is reported that SLAF planes were patrolling in the air at the time of the return of the LTTE planes, but they failed to locate their landing place and strike at them as they were landing. The aircraft managed to land safely and ground-based technicians of the LTTE's air wing managed to dismantle them quickly and shift them to their intended place of concealment.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
The air wing of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) carried out two attacks within an interval of about 90 minutes on a military target in the North and an economic target in Colombo on the night of October 28, 2008. This is the seventh operation by the LTTE's air wing since it went into action in March last year.
2. Tamilnet, the pro-LTTE web site in the English language, which has again been giving battle front news after being silent on this subject for some days last week, reported as follows on the LTTE air attacks of October 28: " The LTTE carried out an air attack on the Thallaadi military base, the main artillery and Multi-Barrel Rocket Launcher (MBRL) launchpad of the Sri Lanka Army in Mannaar around 10:30 p.m., dropping three bombs on the base. The Tiger aircrafts then proceeded to Colombo and dropped two bombs on the Kelanitissa power station, while Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF) bombers were searching for LTTE aircrafts in the skies over Kilinochchi between 11:00 and 11:30 a.m. The SLAF aircrafts were flying over the suburbs of Mullaiththeevu and Puthukkudiyiruppu with para lights focused on the ground from 1:30 a.m. on October 29. An SLAF reconnaissance aircraft was continuously circling over Vanni from 11:00 p.m. Immediately after the Tiger air raid on the Thallaadi garrison, the SLAF fighters were circling over the suburbs of Kilinochchi, Iranaimadu, Visuvamadu and Murasumoaddai areas between 11:00 and 11:30 p.m. The SLAF aircrafts were using para lights in their search mission over Vanni. Civilian sources said the Tiger aircrafts flew back to Vanni over Mannaar. "It did not specifically mention the safe return of the aircraft to their base.
3. However, www.puthinam.com, the pro-LTTE website in the Tamil language, carried the following official announcement purporting to be from the LTTE: "At 10-20 PM on Tuesday night, Air Tigers of the LTTE bombed the Thallaadi military base in the Mannaar region. The military base sustained heavy damages. Many were killed and injured. At 11-45 PM on Tuesday the Air Tigers carried out a successful attack on the Kelanitissa power station in Colombo. After carrying out these strikes, the aircrafts returned safely to base."
4. Pro-LTTE sources have tried to give the impression that more than one LTTE aircraft were involved in the two attacks. The report of the Reuters correspondent claimed that only one aircraft was involved in the attack on the military base. Sri Lankan military sources have also spoken of only one aircraft being involved in the attack on the Colombo power station. Pro-LTTE sources have claimed that the same aircraft or aircrafts, after dropping the bombs on the military base in the Mannaar area, flew to Colombo to bomb the power station. The military base attacked is about 250 Kms to the north of Colombo. Would the aircraft or aircrafts, which must have been carrying at least two bombs each, have had sufficient fuel to be able to take off from the Vanni region, bomb the military base, fly to Colombo, bomb the power station and then return to their secret base?
5. Pro-LTTE sources have claimed that there were many fatalities and severe equipment damage in the military base, but according to Army sources, there were no fatalities and very little equipment damage. Only one security forces personnel was injured, they claimed. The power station admitted the death of one of its employees due to shock when the bomb or bombs fell. The administrative buildings and the cooling system sustained some damage resulting in a fire, which was put out by the Fire Brigade. Pro-LTTE sources have claimed some damage to the turbines, but there are so far no reports of any serious disruption of the power supply in Colombo.
6. The attacks were tactically successful in the sense that the aircraft involved in the two attacks reportedly returned safely to base after dropping the bombs on the targets without being intercepted by planes of the Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF) or without being hit and brought down by the anti-aircraft defence. But their strategic significance is limited since they do not appear to have caused any damage of a serious nature. However, the attacks could have a psychological significance in maintaining the morale of the LTTE cadres and its supporters in the Northern and Eastern Provinces and in the overseas diaspora.
7. These attacks and the earlier strike by two officers of the Sea Tigers, one of them a woman, on two commercial ships used by the Sri Lankan Army for carrying military supplies to the Sri Lankan troops in the Kilinochchi area at the Kankesanthurai port on October 22, 2008, show that the LTTE's command and control is functioning well despite the losses suffered by it on the ground in the Vanni region during the current ground offensive by the Sri Lankan Army.
8. Military analysts have commented that since the LTTE started using its air wing in March last year, it has been emulating the tactics followed by North Korea during the Korean war of the 1950s. The tactics consisted of using small planes to surprise and embarrass the South Korean and American Air Force planes without achieving any strategic objective. Since the LTTE started using its planes, only in two instances were substantial human fatalities and equipment damage inflicted. The first was during the raid on the Anuradhapura training base of the SLAF in October last year and the second was during the attack on the Vavuniya military base on September 9, 2008. Both these raids were conducted jointly by the LTTE's planes from the air and suicide cadres from the ground. It is the suicide cadres on the ground, who caused the fatalities and most of the equipment damage. The role of the aircraft was essentially psychological, meant, inter alia, to divert the attention of the ground personnel of the Sri Lankan security forces. But the combined operations carried out successfully did show good qualities of co-ordination between air-borne and ground-based cadres. Whenever the LTTE planes have operated alone and not in conjunction with ground-based cadres, the results achieved were not significant operationally.
9. Aircraft operating alone without support from ground-based elements can cause substantial damage to an economic target if the bombs are powerful enough and the bombing is precise. The LTTE has carried out two bombings of economic targets so far----one against some petrol storage tanks in Colombo last year and the other against a power station in Colombo on the night of October 28. In both instances, the bombs were not powerful enough to cause serious equipment damage and the bombing was not precise. As a result, these two bombings failed to cause any economic dislocation.
10. The latest strikes like the previous ones once again highlighted the weak night operational capabilities of the SLAF and the weak anti-aircraft defences. They were neither able to bring the planes down through anti-aircraft fire, nor able to chase the raiding planes and force them down nor identify the place of landing of the LTTE planes as they returned to base and strike them from the air. It is reported that SLAF planes were patrolling in the air at the time of the return of the LTTE planes, but they failed to locate their landing place and strike at them as they were landing. The aircraft managed to land safely and ground-based technicians of the LTTE's air wing managed to dismantle them quickly and shift them to their intended place of concealment.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
Abhishek Singhvi’s Time-Share
SOURCE: Offstumped
What happens when you mate Sonia Gandhi’s Absentee Leadership with Manmohan Singh’s Executive Delinquency in an extra-constitutional wedlock called the UPA ?
You end up with illegtimate triplets called Dysfunctional Governance, Communal Socialism and a Time-Sharing Parliament.
Offstumped will stop there and leave it to your imagination what a Menage-a-trois with Amar Singh’s fixing will beget this nation of ours ……
READ MORE
What happens when you mate Sonia Gandhi’s Absentee Leadership with Manmohan Singh’s Executive Delinquency in an extra-constitutional wedlock called the UPA ?
You end up with illegtimate triplets called Dysfunctional Governance, Communal Socialism and a Time-Sharing Parliament.
Offstumped will stop there and leave it to your imagination what a Menage-a-trois with Amar Singh’s fixing will beget this nation of ours ……
READ MORE
October 30, 2008
Why the Fight in Balochistan Matters
http://www.metimes.com/Opinion/2008/10/30/why_the_fight_in_balochistan_matters/2309/
SEEKING FAIRNESS -- International powers are looking to exploit Pakistan’s gas and mineral rich region of Balochistan. But Balochs have long argued that they do not see their fair share of development and employment from the resources. Photo shows Baloch women making victory signs at a protest in Quetta, Pakistan. (PPI Photo via Newscom).
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- The scarred Pakistani province of Balochistan has been suffering from conflict with the central government since the country's inception in 1947. Steeped in violence and deprivation, bitterness, hunger and frustration are everyday realities.
Apart from the humanitarian aspect of this conflict, why is Balochistan a concern for the rest of the world?
Balochistan is a strategically important region bordering Iran and Afghanistan. Left unchecked, this conflict between the Baloch people and the Pakistani government over the province's resources – combined with the increasing Talibanisation of the northern parts of Pakistan – could wreak havoc on the country by propelling it into a state of instability.
A protracted conflict could also destabilize the surrounding region, politically and economically. Balochistan is rich with gas, natural resources and some of the rarest mineral reserves. Large portions of two proposed gas pipelines – one between Iran, Pakistan and India and another between Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India – would pass through Balochistan.
International powers like the United States, China, Iran and India are already looking to this region for increased access to gas and use of Balochistan's Gwadar port, at the entrance of the Persian Gulf, for international trade.
But Balochs have long argued that they do not see their fair share of the revenue – in the form of development and employment – from these resources. The Pakistani government has been fighting various Baloch insurgencies for decades, claiming that they want unwarranted autonomy and even independence.
Recently, however, there have been encouraging developments. No terrorist attacks or acts of sabotage have been carried out in Balochistan since three Baloch militant organizations, namely the Baloch Liberation Army, the Baloch Republican Army and the Baloch Liberation Front, announced a surprising ceasefire in early September.
Can we expect peace to return to Balochistan under these circumstances?
The success or failure of this resolve will depend on how quickly and effectively the new Pakistani government seizes this opportunity to set things right. Now is the time for the Baloch people to heal their psychological wounds and assuage political grievances through dialogue.
The intriguing decision to cease hostilities is proof of these groups' willingness to work toward resolving the conflict with meaningful words, not gunfire.
It is crucial that the two sides view this conflict not as a win-lose, but a win-win situation. For this to happen, three basic conditions must be met: acknowledgment, acceptance and adaptability: the three A's of conflict resolution, according to mediation trainers Judith Warner and Thomas Crum.
Both the Pakistani government and the Baloch resistance movements must acknowledge the conflict's existence, rather than trying to avoid or deny it, and accept each party's involvement.
Adaptability requires openness to ideas that could lead to viable solutions. A firm commitment and resolve, with the flexibility to make concessions, will determine how those solutions will be implemented.
Many in Pakistan hope to implement a peace deal similar to the Aceh Peace Agreement in August 2005, which brought an end to a 29-year-long conflict in Indonesia.
Through this pact, the Indonesian government agreed to cede power to Acehnese in all public sectors, except in foreign affairs, external defense, national security and fiscal matters. Instead of continuing their fight for full independence the Acehnese
settled for local self-rule.
The people of Balochistan would be happy with a similar settlement. Violence will only continue to hamper a consensus between the Baloch people and the central government.
The government must look sympathetically at the demands of Balochistan and be open to a political solution to the conflict. Most Pakistanis are inclined to provide more autonomy to the provinces than is granted under the current constitution, so that peace can prevail and provincial disparities are done away with.
Where there's a will there's a way. With a new democratic government in place, now is the time to institutionalize a change for Balochistan, by amending the constitution to give Balochs the rights they deserve and the limited control that the Pakistani government requires for sovereignty.
A peace deal between Islamabad and Balochistan could even serve as a model for the Northwest Frontier Provinces and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas within Pakistan. Most importantly, however, it will pave the way for long-lasting peace in the region.
.
SEEKING FAIRNESS -- International powers are looking to exploit Pakistan’s gas and mineral rich region of Balochistan. But Balochs have long argued that they do not see their fair share of development and employment from the resources. Photo shows Baloch women making victory signs at a protest in Quetta, Pakistan. (PPI Photo via Newscom).
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- The scarred Pakistani province of Balochistan has been suffering from conflict with the central government since the country's inception in 1947. Steeped in violence and deprivation, bitterness, hunger and frustration are everyday realities.
Apart from the humanitarian aspect of this conflict, why is Balochistan a concern for the rest of the world?
Balochistan is a strategically important region bordering Iran and Afghanistan. Left unchecked, this conflict between the Baloch people and the Pakistani government over the province's resources – combined with the increasing Talibanisation of the northern parts of Pakistan – could wreak havoc on the country by propelling it into a state of instability.
A protracted conflict could also destabilize the surrounding region, politically and economically. Balochistan is rich with gas, natural resources and some of the rarest mineral reserves. Large portions of two proposed gas pipelines – one between Iran, Pakistan and India and another between Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India – would pass through Balochistan.
International powers like the United States, China, Iran and India are already looking to this region for increased access to gas and use of Balochistan's Gwadar port, at the entrance of the Persian Gulf, for international trade.
But Balochs have long argued that they do not see their fair share of the revenue – in the form of development and employment – from these resources. The Pakistani government has been fighting various Baloch insurgencies for decades, claiming that they want unwarranted autonomy and even independence.
Recently, however, there have been encouraging developments. No terrorist attacks or acts of sabotage have been carried out in Balochistan since three Baloch militant organizations, namely the Baloch Liberation Army, the Baloch Republican Army and the Baloch Liberation Front, announced a surprising ceasefire in early September.
Can we expect peace to return to Balochistan under these circumstances?
The success or failure of this resolve will depend on how quickly and effectively the new Pakistani government seizes this opportunity to set things right. Now is the time for the Baloch people to heal their psychological wounds and assuage political grievances through dialogue.
The intriguing decision to cease hostilities is proof of these groups' willingness to work toward resolving the conflict with meaningful words, not gunfire.
It is crucial that the two sides view this conflict not as a win-lose, but a win-win situation. For this to happen, three basic conditions must be met: acknowledgment, acceptance and adaptability: the three A's of conflict resolution, according to mediation trainers Judith Warner and Thomas Crum.
Both the Pakistani government and the Baloch resistance movements must acknowledge the conflict's existence, rather than trying to avoid or deny it, and accept each party's involvement.
Adaptability requires openness to ideas that could lead to viable solutions. A firm commitment and resolve, with the flexibility to make concessions, will determine how those solutions will be implemented.
Many in Pakistan hope to implement a peace deal similar to the Aceh Peace Agreement in August 2005, which brought an end to a 29-year-long conflict in Indonesia.
Through this pact, the Indonesian government agreed to cede power to Acehnese in all public sectors, except in foreign affairs, external defense, national security and fiscal matters. Instead of continuing their fight for full independence the Acehnese
settled for local self-rule.
The people of Balochistan would be happy with a similar settlement. Violence will only continue to hamper a consensus between the Baloch people and the central government.
The government must look sympathetically at the demands of Balochistan and be open to a political solution to the conflict. Most Pakistanis are inclined to provide more autonomy to the provinces than is granted under the current constitution, so that peace can prevail and provincial disparities are done away with.
Where there's a will there's a way. With a new democratic government in place, now is the time to institutionalize a change for Balochistan, by amending the constitution to give Balochs the rights they deserve and the limited control that the Pakistani government requires for sovereignty.
A peace deal between Islamabad and Balochistan could even serve as a model for the Northwest Frontier Provinces and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas within Pakistan. Most importantly, however, it will pave the way for long-lasting peace in the region.
.
The International Momentum Is For New Bretton Woods
by Nancy Spannaus
[PDF version of this article]
Oct. 22—As should be totally clear to even the political novice, no one can expect a competent plan for a new monetary system on the model of FDR's New Bretton Woods to come out of the G8-Plus emergency summit which French President Nicolas Sarkozy convinced President Bush to convene on Nov. 15. A meeting on monetary matters with Bush et al., Lyndon LaRouche recently remarked, would be more like a Mad Hatter's Tea Party than a serious conference.
However, there is no question but that the convening of this conference reflects an accelerating, and dead-serious momentum within major world capitals toward the only competent proposal for a new world economic order which is on the table: LaRouche's New Bretton Woods proposal. The ongoing disintegration of the world monetary system is causing terror throughout banking and political circles everywhere, especially as every plan put forward by the "authorities" implodes within days of its announcement.
The British bankers who sit on top of the Anglo-Dutch slime mold which created the current civilization-threatening crisis have their own reorganization plan, of course. As British Prime Minister Gordon Brown put it, there must be a "global response to the first truly global crisis," i.e., a global bankers' dictatorship run by the very same "experts" who created the current disaster.
But in this moment of increasing panic, those leaders who are determined to defend the sovereignty and existence of their nations are reaching back into their memories, for the one expert who forecast the crisis, and put forward the solution—Lyndon LaRouche.
A Global Pattern
In effect, the upsurge of support internationally, including in major countries such as Russia, India, China, France, and Italy, represents a form of pincer movement around the United States, where there is currently no leading establishment force which has taken up LaRouche's call.
The following developments reflect the scope of the international attention. Note that the coverage is substantial in all of the major powers LaRouche has identified as key to coming to a New Bretton Woods agreement—except the United States.
India: On Oct. 19 LaRouche was interviewed live on the 9 p.m. News show on "India This Week," a primetime program on India's most-watched national TV channel, NDTV. The program had an estimated 11-15 million viewers. LaRouche was introduced as a former U.S. Democratic Presidential candidate, and pictured in front of the White House during the interview.
On the subject of global financial collapse, LaRouche said: "We're in a crisis which is comparable in category, to what happened in Europe in the 14th Century with what was called the New Dark Age. This is a crisis immediately caused by the quadrillions of dollars, outstanding obligations in the derivatives category. And the system is crashing; it's going to a terminal end unless an immediate reform is made, which will involve a number of countries coming to an agreement, around the idea of what's called a 'New Bretton Woods.' "
Russia: For the second time in a month, on Sept. 22, Russia's English-language TV channel, Russia Today, broadcast a live interview with LaRouche, on critical strategic developments; the first was aired Aug. 21. In this second interview, LaRouche emphasized the terminal nature of the current crisis, and the need for a totally new monetary system.
In addition, LaRouche's concept of a New Bretton Woods has been widely circulated in print, including in an article by the prominent Russian economist Prof. Stanislav Menshikov, that first appeared Oct. 17 in Slovo (see EIR, Oct. 24, for an English translation).
China: LaRouche's economic analysis has been the subject of numerous lengthy articles in the Chinese press, over the last month.
Italy: On Oct. 20, the nation's newspaper of record, Corriere della Sera, in its economic supplement, featured an article comparing the ideas of Italian Economics Minister Giulio Tremonti and those of LaRouche, on the New Bretton Woods.
France: On Oct. 17, the leading representative of the LaRouche movement in France, former Presidential candidate and president of the Solidarity and Progress association, Jacques Cheminade, was an invited guest in a debate with Christian de Boissieu, president of the French Prime Minister's Economic Analysis Council, on the all-news international TV Channel France 24. Cheminade presented LaRouche's view on the global bailout, and the principles of the New Bretton Woods.
Italy and France
Within Europe, the major impetus for LaRouche's New Bretton Woods idea is coming from Italy and France. The Corriere della Sera article summarized it as follows:
Interviewed by Corriere in Brussels, Tremonti then specified that he meant that he was the first among government officials to propose a 'new Bretton Woods,' and that he was well aware that the idea had been pushed for many years by the American political guru Lyndon LaRouche, a historical enemy of financial speculation and deregulated free-marketism. The Economics Minister pointed out that he participated in a discussion with LaRouche in 2007, at a conference entitled 'Marketism or New Deal,' organized in Rome by [Member of Parliament] Alfonso Gianni, from Rifondazione Comunista.
Tremonti said that he thinks highly of LaRouche's writings—LaRouche has been a perennial (unwelcome) candidate in the Democratic Presidential Primaries, an economist without a University degree, and, since the '90s, he has announced the 'big crash' of speculative finance. Lega Nord MEP [Member of European Parliament] Mario Borghezio has invited LaRouche to speak at the European Parliament. [Sen.] Oskar Peterlini (SVP [Southern Tyrol People's Party]) and many other Senators from the Democratic Party and the UDC have asked the Berlusconi government to deal with the financial crisis by using the draft legislation circulated in the U.S. by LaRouche before the Summer, when he announced that the banking collapse due to subprime mortgages [sic] was imminent.
Sarkozy's initiatives seem to be heavily influenced by the Italians, but they are by no means as clear in intention. He and members of his cabinet have spoken out against the speculators, and for defense of national sovereignty—a stance which tends to pit them against the British. And speaking before the European Parliament on Oct. 21, Sarkozy appeared to propose fixed exchange rates, a leading element of the LaRouche anti-globalization Bretton Woods plan. But there is no developed plan.
What's Wrong with This Picture?
Coverage of LaRouche's New Bretton Woods is by no means confined to the major world powers. Over the recent weeks, as the financial disintegration has accelerated, there has been extensive newspaper and radio attention paid to LaRouche's ideas in the Philippines and various nations of Ibero-America, for example.
Then, on Oct. 22, the Kuwaiti daily Awan published an article by syndicated columnist Karim al-Hazzaa counterposing the policies of Alan Greenspan to those of LaRouche. Al-Hazzaa shows what a hoaxster Greenspan is, in contrast to the physical economist LaRouche, quoting statements made by both over the years. He states that LaRouche's New Bretton Woods solutions are the only workable ones in this crisis.
But, in the United States, which is crucial to realization of the New Bretton Woods, the British media have continued to keep a lid on LaRouche's economic record and proposals. The only straightforward coverage of LaRouche's economic forecasting record and proposed solution, in the United States, appeared, deep-down, in an Oct. 11 New York Times article about the protests against the bailout.
[PDF version of this article]
Oct. 22—As should be totally clear to even the political novice, no one can expect a competent plan for a new monetary system on the model of FDR's New Bretton Woods to come out of the G8-Plus emergency summit which French President Nicolas Sarkozy convinced President Bush to convene on Nov. 15. A meeting on monetary matters with Bush et al., Lyndon LaRouche recently remarked, would be more like a Mad Hatter's Tea Party than a serious conference.
However, there is no question but that the convening of this conference reflects an accelerating, and dead-serious momentum within major world capitals toward the only competent proposal for a new world economic order which is on the table: LaRouche's New Bretton Woods proposal. The ongoing disintegration of the world monetary system is causing terror throughout banking and political circles everywhere, especially as every plan put forward by the "authorities" implodes within days of its announcement.
The British bankers who sit on top of the Anglo-Dutch slime mold which created the current civilization-threatening crisis have their own reorganization plan, of course. As British Prime Minister Gordon Brown put it, there must be a "global response to the first truly global crisis," i.e., a global bankers' dictatorship run by the very same "experts" who created the current disaster.
But in this moment of increasing panic, those leaders who are determined to defend the sovereignty and existence of their nations are reaching back into their memories, for the one expert who forecast the crisis, and put forward the solution—Lyndon LaRouche.
A Global Pattern
In effect, the upsurge of support internationally, including in major countries such as Russia, India, China, France, and Italy, represents a form of pincer movement around the United States, where there is currently no leading establishment force which has taken up LaRouche's call.
The following developments reflect the scope of the international attention. Note that the coverage is substantial in all of the major powers LaRouche has identified as key to coming to a New Bretton Woods agreement—except the United States.
India: On Oct. 19 LaRouche was interviewed live on the 9 p.m. News show on "India This Week," a primetime program on India's most-watched national TV channel, NDTV. The program had an estimated 11-15 million viewers. LaRouche was introduced as a former U.S. Democratic Presidential candidate, and pictured in front of the White House during the interview.
On the subject of global financial collapse, LaRouche said: "We're in a crisis which is comparable in category, to what happened in Europe in the 14th Century with what was called the New Dark Age. This is a crisis immediately caused by the quadrillions of dollars, outstanding obligations in the derivatives category. And the system is crashing; it's going to a terminal end unless an immediate reform is made, which will involve a number of countries coming to an agreement, around the idea of what's called a 'New Bretton Woods.' "
Russia: For the second time in a month, on Sept. 22, Russia's English-language TV channel, Russia Today, broadcast a live interview with LaRouche, on critical strategic developments; the first was aired Aug. 21. In this second interview, LaRouche emphasized the terminal nature of the current crisis, and the need for a totally new monetary system.
In addition, LaRouche's concept of a New Bretton Woods has been widely circulated in print, including in an article by the prominent Russian economist Prof. Stanislav Menshikov, that first appeared Oct. 17 in Slovo (see EIR, Oct. 24, for an English translation).
China: LaRouche's economic analysis has been the subject of numerous lengthy articles in the Chinese press, over the last month.
Italy: On Oct. 20, the nation's newspaper of record, Corriere della Sera, in its economic supplement, featured an article comparing the ideas of Italian Economics Minister Giulio Tremonti and those of LaRouche, on the New Bretton Woods.
France: On Oct. 17, the leading representative of the LaRouche movement in France, former Presidential candidate and president of the Solidarity and Progress association, Jacques Cheminade, was an invited guest in a debate with Christian de Boissieu, president of the French Prime Minister's Economic Analysis Council, on the all-news international TV Channel France 24. Cheminade presented LaRouche's view on the global bailout, and the principles of the New Bretton Woods.
Italy and France
Within Europe, the major impetus for LaRouche's New Bretton Woods idea is coming from Italy and France. The Corriere della Sera article summarized it as follows:
Interviewed by Corriere in Brussels, Tremonti then specified that he meant that he was the first among government officials to propose a 'new Bretton Woods,' and that he was well aware that the idea had been pushed for many years by the American political guru Lyndon LaRouche, a historical enemy of financial speculation and deregulated free-marketism. The Economics Minister pointed out that he participated in a discussion with LaRouche in 2007, at a conference entitled 'Marketism or New Deal,' organized in Rome by [Member of Parliament] Alfonso Gianni, from Rifondazione Comunista.
Tremonti said that he thinks highly of LaRouche's writings—LaRouche has been a perennial (unwelcome) candidate in the Democratic Presidential Primaries, an economist without a University degree, and, since the '90s, he has announced the 'big crash' of speculative finance. Lega Nord MEP [Member of European Parliament] Mario Borghezio has invited LaRouche to speak at the European Parliament. [Sen.] Oskar Peterlini (SVP [Southern Tyrol People's Party]) and many other Senators from the Democratic Party and the UDC have asked the Berlusconi government to deal with the financial crisis by using the draft legislation circulated in the U.S. by LaRouche before the Summer, when he announced that the banking collapse due to subprime mortgages [sic] was imminent.
Sarkozy's initiatives seem to be heavily influenced by the Italians, but they are by no means as clear in intention. He and members of his cabinet have spoken out against the speculators, and for defense of national sovereignty—a stance which tends to pit them against the British. And speaking before the European Parliament on Oct. 21, Sarkozy appeared to propose fixed exchange rates, a leading element of the LaRouche anti-globalization Bretton Woods plan. But there is no developed plan.
What's Wrong with This Picture?
Coverage of LaRouche's New Bretton Woods is by no means confined to the major world powers. Over the recent weeks, as the financial disintegration has accelerated, there has been extensive newspaper and radio attention paid to LaRouche's ideas in the Philippines and various nations of Ibero-America, for example.
Then, on Oct. 22, the Kuwaiti daily Awan published an article by syndicated columnist Karim al-Hazzaa counterposing the policies of Alan Greenspan to those of LaRouche. Al-Hazzaa shows what a hoaxster Greenspan is, in contrast to the physical economist LaRouche, quoting statements made by both over the years. He states that LaRouche's New Bretton Woods solutions are the only workable ones in this crisis.
But, in the United States, which is crucial to realization of the New Bretton Woods, the British media have continued to keep a lid on LaRouche's economic record and proposals. The only straightforward coverage of LaRouche's economic forecasting record and proposed solution, in the United States, appeared, deep-down, in an Oct. 11 New York Times article about the protests against the bailout.
Payback: Debt as Metaphor and the Shadow Side of Wealth
(2008)
A non fiction book by
Margaret AtwoodNext book >>
by
Margaret Atwood
Collected here, the Massey Lectures from legendary novelist Margaret Atwood investigate the highly topical subject of debt. She doesn't talk about high finance or managing money; instead, she goes far deeper to explore debt as an ancient and central motif in religion, literature, and the structure of human societies. By looking at how debt has informed our thinking from preliterate times to the present day, from the stories we tell of revenge and sin to the way we order social relationships, Atwood argues that the idea of what we owe may well be built into the human imagination as one of its most dynamic metaphors. Her final lecture addresses the notion of a debt to nature and the need to find new ways of interacting with the natural world before it is too late.
Sitting in A grand 18th-century clubhouse near St James's Park in London, Margaret Atwood exudes intelligence; her fine, birdlike features, mischievous blue eyes and barely tamed curls suggest a mind still gleaming on the eve of her 70th birthday. Even more remarkable than her presence, though, is her prescience.
In 1984 she wrote a dystopian vision of a fundamentalist society in which women are reduced to the status of child-bearers and servants, forcibly desexualised and veiled - The Handmaid's Tale pre-empted the Taleban's misogynist regime in Afghanistan, and the rows over Islamic women's dress and rights in Europe. Another futuristic novel, Oryx and Crake, charted the destruction of the Earth by global warming, pandemics and rampant genetic engineering. It was published in 2003, before Sars, bird flu, An Inconvenient Truth, and the genome revolution.
Now, in her new nonfiction book, Payback: Debt and the Shadow Side of Wealth - a fascinating, freewheeling examination of ideas of debt, balance and revenge in history, society and literature - Atwood has again struck upon our most current anxieties. As the credit crunch grounds airlines and topples banks, nobody can escape the spectre of debt. So where does she keep her crystal ball?
“It was a coincidence,” she claims. “I chose this topic several years ago and then found myself writing the book while all this was happening - the sub-prime mortgage crisis, and these ads plastering the Underground: ‘We will help you with your debt', ‘Why pay more?', ‘Declare personal bankruptcy!'.”
Background
Exclusive extract from Payback by Margaret Atwood
Pen ultimate
You’ll need luck, Atwood tells authors
Background
http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/books/article4830742.ece
Critic's Chart: Andrew Ellson picks six books on cash crashes
The subject of debt first occurred to her when she was asked to write a public “letter to America”: “I found myself doing it as the troops were about to invade Iraq, and I wrote, ‘Why are you digging yourself into a great big hole of debt?' Typically empires expand past where they can afford to defend their perimeters, at which point something is going to break.” She gives a dry chuckle. “The barbarians will get in sooner or later.”
Payback is Atwood's contribution to the Massey Lectures - a prestigious annual event that has been hosted by Martin Luther King and J. K. Galbraith - and once the book is published she will tour her native Canada reading from it. It has been hard explaining what it is about, though, or why she, a novelist, should be tackling economics: “It was never just about money: it was about owing. Money is the form in which we have embodied this but it takes a huge number of other forms. What we're really talking about is imbalances of obligation, which is what debt is.” Payback casts its net far and wide, taking in Ancient Egyptian heart-weighing, the bizarre practice of “sin eating”, Mesopotamian debt slavery, simian trading habits, Scrooge, Faustus, Get Shorty and Jung.
The Iraq war may have been the kick-off point, but debt had preoccupied Atwood for as long as she can remember. Her parents lived through the Great Depression, during which their income went into four envelopes: “Rent”, “Groceries”, “Other Necessities” and “Recreation”. “The first three envelopes had priority,” Atwood writes, “and if there was nothing left for the fourth envelope, there were no movies, and my parents went for a walk instead.” This, she concludes, is the “lost art” of “living within your means”.
Born in 1939 in Toronto, Atwood recalls that “We weren't supposed to talk at the dinner table about religion or money or sex. Money interested me because it was forbidden - but you knew it was there.” She collected pretty coins and was fascinated by the cash-splashing exploits of the comic-book character Scrooge McDuck; but it wasn't until she was 8 - when she had her first paying job and bank account - that money became real. “My parents didn't give my brother and me a lot of pocket money; they had worked from a young age and didn't see why we shouldn't too. But a lot of the traditional ‘kid jobs' that I did are now either classified as child labour or they don't exist.”
After babysitting and blueberry picking, as a teen Atwood was employed as an “arrow demonstrator” - having learnt archery during a “curious upbringing” that involved spells in the remote Quebec woods while her father studied insect behaviour - at a sports show. Later, with a friend, she ran a children's puppetry business that became so successful that they hired an agent. Even writing quickly proved its earning potential: “I was very pleased when my first poem got published. I got paid $5 - probably more than the rate now,” she adds, laughing.
As an adult, Atwood retained her parents' frugality, while immersing herself in another deeply financial environment: “I became a Victorian. That was my field of study at univer-sity - and that's the age par excellence in which plots are driven by money and people are embroiled in an outbreak of capitalism. Wuthering Heights is driven by money: Heathcliff earns a fortune and then comes back to extract the house from its previous owner. Madame Bovary would have been quite all right had she kept within her budget. It's not the adultery - it's the debt that sank her.”
It is the most famous 19th-century character of all, though, who is the presiding spirit of Payback: Ebenezer Scrooge, the progenitor of Disney's Scottish miser duck. “He's an extreme version of ‘living within your means',” Atwood says. “He does nothing with them except make more means.” In a capitalist society, Scrooge's major sin is that his currency is not “current” - it does not flow. Until, that is, he undergoes his transformation, when he becomes a dual, before-and-after figure. “He fulfils both our wishes: our wish to keep it all to ourselves and our other wish to be kind and generous and for people to like us”. The central chapter of Payback shows how Scrooge is the mirror image of the 16th-century Dr Faustus. Between Marlowe and Dickens, society's view of riches had reversed: for Faustus free-spending is damnation, for Scrooge it's salvation.
For us it's the norm. In the past 50 years we have gone so far down the free-spending route that debt is no longer feared but shruggingly accep-ted: from student loan to mortgage, everyone's in the red. And while the Victorians had the threat of debtors' prisons, we have the escape route of personal bankruptcy. But as credit becomes scarcer, Atwood thinks that the tide is turning: “Once you get TV shows where people are repenting not that they've cheated on their wife but how in debt they are, then you're returning to a mode in which debt is considered sinful, and thrift is valued. Nobody in the Eighties would have been caught dead in recycled clothing, but now vintage is chic.”
If citizens are relearning the arts of thrift, their governments are lagging behind. The Times Square debt clock in New York was switched off in 2000 because the Clinton Government had built up a budget surplus. But when George W. Bush's spending spree began, it was rebooted, and now stands at almost $10 trillion (£5.6 trillion). “Who's going to pay for it?” Atwood asks. “The US taxpayer. They already have - their social services have suffered horribly. But people didn't understand that it was happening. [The invasion of Iraq] was like one of those magician's tricks where somebody is waving a red handkerchief and while everybody's looking at it somebody else is stealing your wallet.” In the fortnight since we met, the pickpocketing has become even more audacious: the multibillion-dollar bailouts of the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the proposed rescue of the insurance group AIG will come straight out of the taxpayer's purse.
But financial debt is not our biggest burden. In writing Payback Atwood became fascinated with a phrase spoken of the dead: “He has paid his debt to nature.” “It means you've borrowed something - the physical part of yourself made up of natural elements - and you're paying it back by dissolving into nature. What else are we borrowing from nature and how do we repay it?” The book's final chapter proposes an answer in strong terms.
It's surprising, I say, to see a novelist - whose usual tools are ambiguity and indirection - produce something so close to polemic. Atwood is convinced that the form demands it: “Lecture series like this are secular sermons. You can't just throw a topic like this on to the table without deciding which part of it you think is good and which is bad.”
The bad part is the way we have treated the planet, and at the moment, there isn't much of a good part in sight. “Early cultures would make sacrifices to ensure a good harvest or whatever. If we don't change our ways the sacrifices will be made for us - and that is already going on, what with droughts, famines and floods. Talk to any epidemiologist and what they're really worried about is a mega-plague coming our way. We're overcrowded and malnourished - the same conditions preceded the Black Death.” It's a distressing vision - even more so when you remember Atwood's impressive track record in prognostication.
If mankind could declare bank-ruptcy and wipe the slate clean, we would. But we can't: instead, Atwood argues, we need to learn to manage our debt, and to pull ourselves back into the black: “We should start thinking of ourselves as elements in the balance, and how we are throwing out the balance. It's not a moral obligation - it's a physical obligation.”
Assam Serial Blasts: Cobbled Conglomerate is likely to be involved
By Divya Kumar Soti
Today Assam was rocked by 18 high intensity serial blasts which happened within a narrow time span of half an hour and were spread over four districts of Upper as well as lower Assam. Details of casualties are not known but hundreds are feared dead. Early indications suggest involvement of sophisticated terror conglomerate
assigned with some specific tasks.
Few events over past few months which are worth mentioning in this regard are-
1. HUJI activities are on a rise in North-East and region is being used as a channel to support operations by this group inside India.These operations range from Arms smuggling, Counterfeit Currency smuggling, Cattle smuggling, to co-coordinating terror operations inside India.
2. These attacks may be in response to recent crackdown by security forces on HUJI over past few months in which many of its operatives were arrested and killed in North Eastern states.
3. Simultaneous blasts over many cities points towards HUJI's involvement. HUJI in past was involved in similar attacks in Bangladesh in which tens on cities all over the country were simultaneously targeted.
4. Media reports suggest that a wide variety of IED's seems to have been used in these blasts. Different types of methods have been used to plant these bombs and everything from bicycles to cars was used.
5. According to reports out of these 18 blasts, three were Grenade attacks which clearly indicate the involvement of ULFA elements. Major surrenders by ULFA cadres over past few months had its unavoidable side effects but Security agencies failed to recognize them. These surrenders left lots of ULFA splinters behind them. Many of them may have been utilized by masterminds in today's blasts.
6. These blasts were preceded by major communal clashes between local Tribals and Bangladeshi settlers over this month.
7. ULFA's internal equations are quite turbulent these days. ULFA's hierarchy is in complete control of ISI since last few years. This group is nothing more than an ISI instrumentality for sabotage assignments and Greater Bangladesh catalyst. ULFA has progressively lost its original insurgent character and now most of its activities resemble that of Ghost insurgent-cum-mercenary gangs employed by
intelligence agencies for sabotage and propaganda activities. This group is also involved in brokering different type of logistic deals among different groups active in Bangladesh.
8. In all likelihood ULFA elements were cobbled with HUJI to carry out these serial blasts.
For a broader picture refer to-
http://intellibriefs.blogspot.com/2007/08/north-east-india-theatre-of-another.html
ASSAM : Multiple blasts kill 50
Blasts symbolic of insecurity in the country: Advani
New Delhi, Oct 30 (PTI) The serial blasts in Assam were symbolic of the sense of insecurity in the country and the UPA government has failed to combat terror, senior BJP leader L K Advani today accused.
"I believe that these blasts are symbolic of the sense of insecurity in the country. This also proves the total failure of the government in combating terrorism," he told reporters here.
Advani said it is likely that illegal Bangladeshi migrants from Assam, which has seen an increasing influx of these people in recent years, could be involved in the blasts. PTI
India's Assam Hit by 12 Bombings; 50 Die; 300 Hurt (Update2)
By Bibhudatta Pradhan
Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- More than 50 people were killed and about 300 injured in 12 bombings across the eastern Indian state of Assam, the scene of clashes between ethnic groups.
The casualties took place as devices containing high- intensity explosives went off between 11 a.m. and noon today in the city of Guwahati and the Barpeta, Bongaigaon and Kokrajhar districts, state Health Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said in a phone interview. Most of the bombings were in crowded places, he said. Authorities imposed a curfew in some parts of Guwahati. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks.
Cities and towns across India have been targeted recently in bombings, with devices strapped to bicycles, hidden under auditorium seats and left near market stalls. About 40 bomb attacks took place from May 13 to Oct. 21, killing 175 people. The blasts on Oct. 21 in Imphal, capital of the northeastern state of Manipur, left at least 17 people dead.
Ethnic clashes in tea- and oil-rich Assam killed 49 people this month. The clashes began Oct. 3 in the Udalguri district, between members of the indigenous Bodo tribe and Muslim settlers from neighboring Bangladesh, and spread to other areas. The two sides are involved in longstanding land disputes.
Assam, which also shares a border with Bhutan, is home to several rebel groups. At least 314 security personnel and civilians were killed last year in violence in the state.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bibhudatta Pradhan in New Delhi at bpradhan@bloomberg.net.
http://www.merinews.com/catFull.jsp?articleID=146647
The eighteen blasts, which rocked Assam killing 48, are said to be the handiwork of ULFA or HUJI, a Bangladesh based outfit. Opposition leader LK Advani ascribed them to government's failure in providing security to the people..
CJ: Abhishek Behl, Merinews ,
INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES are ascribing the serial blasts that shook Assam Thursday morning (October 30) to United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) or Harkat-ul-Jehad-al-Islami (HUJI), a Bangladesh based outfit, which has been behind a number of incidents in the country.
Opposition leader LK Advani ascribed them to be a government failure. He asserted that the attacks has proved United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government failure to provide security to the people.
Reacting to the serial blasts, which killed at least 48 people, Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh has asked the people to fight the terror unitedly and remain calm. He condemned the attacks as inhuman and said that people should come together to defeat the motives of the terrorists.
Commenting on the attacks, minister of state for Home, Shri Parkash Jaiswal, also said that involvement of ULFA and HUJI was possible, but refused to take any stand on the issue. As has been the wont of the UPA government, the minister termed the attacks as routine and said that this happens every second month in the country. He assured thorough investigation into the attack.
Advani said that these blasts have added to the insecurity in the country and could have been the handiwork of the illegal migrants from Bangladesh.
Meanwhile, in Guwahati tension prevailed as strong crowds thronged the streets and shouted slogans against government. People targeted fire brigade and ambulances, which had come for the rescue operations.
Government officials were not allowed to come near the blast site till police intervened and prohibitory orders were forced by the administration.
People alleged that police reached the blast site almost one hour late and it was only the local people, who came to the rescue of the people immediately after the explosions.
Similar tension was witnessed in all areas of Guwahati, where people have been seething with anger as their dear ones battle for life in the Guwahati Medical College (GMC). At least 26 people have been confirmed dead and hundreds were injured when the blasts ripped apart the north eastern state.
Experts meanwhile said that it was likely that HUJI or a similar outfit could be behind the attacks rather than ULFA. The Assamese outfit has been under constant pressure of late and it was difficult for the organisation to execute attacks on such a large scale and in such a lethal manner, they added.
However, in a confirm report a bomb was found in scooter and has been defused.
New Delhi, Oct 30 (PTI) The serial blasts in Assam were symbolic of the sense of insecurity in the country and the UPA government has failed to combat terror, senior BJP leader L K Advani today accused.
"I believe that these blasts are symbolic of the sense of insecurity in the country. This also proves the total failure of the government in combating terrorism," he told reporters here.
Advani said it is likely that illegal Bangladeshi migrants from Assam, which has seen an increasing influx of these people in recent years, could be involved in the blasts. PTI
India's Assam Hit by 12 Bombings; 50 Die; 300 Hurt (Update2)
By Bibhudatta Pradhan
Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- More than 50 people were killed and about 300 injured in 12 bombings across the eastern Indian state of Assam, the scene of clashes between ethnic groups.
The casualties took place as devices containing high- intensity explosives went off between 11 a.m. and noon today in the city of Guwahati and the Barpeta, Bongaigaon and Kokrajhar districts, state Health Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said in a phone interview. Most of the bombings were in crowded places, he said. Authorities imposed a curfew in some parts of Guwahati. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks.
Cities and towns across India have been targeted recently in bombings, with devices strapped to bicycles, hidden under auditorium seats and left near market stalls. About 40 bomb attacks took place from May 13 to Oct. 21, killing 175 people. The blasts on Oct. 21 in Imphal, capital of the northeastern state of Manipur, left at least 17 people dead.
Ethnic clashes in tea- and oil-rich Assam killed 49 people this month. The clashes began Oct. 3 in the Udalguri district, between members of the indigenous Bodo tribe and Muslim settlers from neighboring Bangladesh, and spread to other areas. The two sides are involved in longstanding land disputes.
Assam, which also shares a border with Bhutan, is home to several rebel groups. At least 314 security personnel and civilians were killed last year in violence in the state.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bibhudatta Pradhan in New Delhi at bpradhan@bloomberg.net.
http://www.merinews.com/catFull.jsp?articleID=146647
The eighteen blasts, which rocked Assam killing 48, are said to be the handiwork of ULFA or HUJI, a Bangladesh based outfit. Opposition leader LK Advani ascribed them to government's failure in providing security to the people..
CJ: Abhishek Behl, Merinews ,
INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES are ascribing the serial blasts that shook Assam Thursday morning (October 30) to United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) or Harkat-ul-Jehad-al-Islami (HUJI), a Bangladesh based outfit, which has been behind a number of incidents in the country.
Opposition leader LK Advani ascribed them to be a government failure. He asserted that the attacks has proved United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government failure to provide security to the people.
Reacting to the serial blasts, which killed at least 48 people, Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh has asked the people to fight the terror unitedly and remain calm. He condemned the attacks as inhuman and said that people should come together to defeat the motives of the terrorists.
Commenting on the attacks, minister of state for Home, Shri Parkash Jaiswal, also said that involvement of ULFA and HUJI was possible, but refused to take any stand on the issue. As has been the wont of the UPA government, the minister termed the attacks as routine and said that this happens every second month in the country. He assured thorough investigation into the attack.
Advani said that these blasts have added to the insecurity in the country and could have been the handiwork of the illegal migrants from Bangladesh.
Meanwhile, in Guwahati tension prevailed as strong crowds thronged the streets and shouted slogans against government. People targeted fire brigade and ambulances, which had come for the rescue operations.
Government officials were not allowed to come near the blast site till police intervened and prohibitory orders were forced by the administration.
People alleged that police reached the blast site almost one hour late and it was only the local people, who came to the rescue of the people immediately after the explosions.
Similar tension was witnessed in all areas of Guwahati, where people have been seething with anger as their dear ones battle for life in the Guwahati Medical College (GMC). At least 26 people have been confirmed dead and hundreds were injured when the blasts ripped apart the north eastern state.
Experts meanwhile said that it was likely that HUJI or a similar outfit could be behind the attacks rather than ULFA. The Assamese outfit has been under constant pressure of late and it was difficult for the organisation to execute attacks on such a large scale and in such a lethal manner, they added.
However, in a confirm report a bomb was found in scooter and has been defused.
BLEEDING ASSAM CRIES OUT FOR ATTENTION
B.RAMAN
Available police statistics of incidents involving explosions and civilian casualties caused by the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) since 2002 are given below:
YEAR NUMBER OF EXPLOSIONS CIVILIANS KILLED
2002 18 218
2003 19 260
2004 103 202
2005 121 65
2006 86 59
2007 70 124
2008 6 (till end January) NIL
The figures of civilians killed in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 include civilians killed by explosions as well as in attacks not involving IEDs.The figures for 2006 and 2007 refer to only civilians killed by IEDs. While there was a large number of incidents involving IEDs, the number of civilians killed per incident was low as compared to incidents involving IEDs caused by jihadi terrorists in other parts of India. This could be attributed to the fact that the explosive material used by the ULFA----much of it procured from Bangladesh--- was of low quality as compared to the material available to the jihadi terrorists --- whether procured from Pakistan or Bangladesh--- and the expertise in the use of IEDs imparted to the ULFA in the training camps in Bangladesh was also of inferior quality as compared to the expertise imparted to the jihadi terrorists---whether in Pakistan or Bangladesh.
A defining characteristic of the incidents involving the use of IEDs targeting civilians in Assam was that many of the incidents specifically targeted non-Assamese civilians while taking care not to target Assamese-speaking civilians and illegal Bangladeshi migrants. Jihadi terrorists in other parts of India make no distinction. They kill civilians indiscriminately---- without worrying about their religion, ethnic or linguistic origin.
Jihadi terrorism, as distinguished from the ethnic terrorism of the ULFA kind, has also started making inroads in Assam. According to the Assam Police, the following jihadi organisations are now active in Assam: The Muslim Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA); the Independent Liberation Army of Assam (ILAA); the People United Liberation Front (PULF); the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), whose Pakistani counterpart is a founding member of Osama bin Laden's International Islamic Front (IIF); and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), whose Pakistani counterpart is also a member of the IIF. According to them, the activities of all these organisations are co-ordinated by the Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen (JUM) of Bangladesh, which organised hundreds of simultaneous explosions of crude devices all over Bangladesh on August 17, 2005.
Some HUM cadres, along with two Pakistani nationals, were arrested in August, 1999. Forty-two HUM cadres, including some trained in the Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), surrendered till 2006-end. Four HUJI cadres trained in Bangladesh surrendered in August, 2004. One HUJI cadre was arrested in February, 2004. Till 2006-end, 370 jihadi terrorists belonging to different organisations had been arrested and 128 had surrendered.
The Security Forces in Assam have been putting up a determined fight against the ULFA killing 1,128 cadres since 1991 and till 2006-end and arresting 11,173 during the same period. 8,465 others surrendered. The result: decrease in cadre strength; erosion of its support base in the population; decrease in recruitment and fund collection; and shortage of arms and ammunition. In view of these developments, the ULFA started following a new modus operandi with the following features: decrease in specific targeted violence; increase in
indiscriminate violence directed at soft targets; targeting of vital installations in remote areas; attacks on security forces when and where possible; and use of unconscious third persons not suspected by the Police for having the IEDs planted in public places. The use of such unconscious third persons has been increasing.
However, the ULFA still has an estimated hardcore of 800 trained cadres and another 1,500 untrained cadres. There are no signs of any weakening of its morale and motivation. Its command and control orchestrated from Bangladesh is intact.
Any effective counter-terrorism strategy in Assam has to have the conventional components such as improving intelligence collection, analysis and assessment and co-ordinated follow-up action; improving the capability and resources of the police; strengthened physical security; and a well-tested crisis management drill. In addition, it must have a strong anti-illegal immigration component---to prevent any further illegal immigration from Bangladesh and the identification, arrests and deportation of those, who have already illegally entered India. Obviously for electoral reasons, there is a reluctance on the part of the Government to deal effectively with illegal immigration. This is likely to prove suicidal. Muslims constitute about 32 per cent of the population of Assam today. If the problem of illegal immigration from Bangladesh is not tackled, there is a real danger that in another 50 years, Assam might turn into a Muslim majority State.
Pakistan, Bangladesh and China have an interest in keeping Assam destabilised---each for its own reason. The interest of Pakistan and Bangladesh is in facilitating the emergence of a Muslim majority State and its ultimate secession from India. The interest of China is in weakening the Indian capability to protect Arunachal Pradesh in the likelihood of the unresolved border dispute over Arunachal Pradesh one day leading to a confrontation between India and China.
The previous Government headed by Shri A. B. Vajpayee was strong in rhetoric relating to terrorism, but weak in action. Its successor Govt. is weak in rhetoric as well as action. It seems to believe that confidence-building measures with neighbours who are sponsoring terrorism against India and the peace process would pay dividends in improving the terrorism situation on the ground. This is unlikely to happen. Lack of determination to act strongly and in time is already costing us heavily and will cost even more heavily in future.
---Extract from the Chapter titled ASSAM: TERRORISM & “SILENT UNARMED INVASION” in my book titled "Terrorism: Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow" published by the Lancer Publishers (www.lancerpublishers.com) of Delhi in June,2008
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
More than 50 persons are feared to have died and more than a hundred injured in over 10 blasts that were simultaneously orchestrated in Guwahati, the capital of Assam, and in the Districts of Barpeta and Kokrajhar on the night of October 29,2008. The picture regarding the exact number of explosions and the places where they took place is still confusing. Some reports put the number of explosions as high as 18. At least four of the blasts took place in Guwahati.
2. The people of Assam are not strangers to serial blasts carried out from time to time by the ULFA and jihadi organisations of Pakistani and Bangladeshi vintage, which have made inroads into the State by taking advantage of the uncontrolled illegal immigration of Muslims into the State from Bangladesh They have been operating separately of each other when possible and in co-ordination with each other, when necessary.
3. Assam has been the nerve-centre of a cocktail of terrorist organisations----ethnic and jihadi--- who have been systematically eating at the vitals of this State, which is key for protecting the integrity of India from the designs of Pakistan, Bangladesh and China.But nobody has had the time to pay attention to the alarming ground situation in this key State----neither the Congress (I) nor the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) nor any other party. Taking advantage of the lack of serious attention from the Government of India and the mainstream political parties, this cocktail of terrorists has been spreading havoc in the State.
4. "My heart goes out to the people of Assam," said Jawaharlal Nehru in a broadcast to the people of Assam as the Chinese troops were marching in in 1962. He did nothing to protect them before the Chinese invaded. His Government and its successors did precious little to protect this right arm of India and its people either from the Chinese in the event of another war or from the terrorist organisations of various hues which have come up in the State since the 1980s. Who is whose surrogate? Who is the surrogate of Pakistan? Who is the surrogate of Bangladesh? Who is the surrogate of China? Is there a joint co-ordination by Pakistan, Bangladesh and China to undermine the control of the Indian State? Nobody knows the answer.
5. Everyone is clueless---- the intelligence agencies, the police, the security forces, the political class. There is hardly any realisation of the seriousnress of the situation in Assam. One can even understand inadequacies and even incompetence, but one is alarmed by the total disinterest in Delhi in what is going on in Assam.
6. It is too early to say who was involved in the explosions of October 29---- the ULFA only or ULFA plus? One has to wait for the results of the investigation, but from the large number of casualties and the widespread nature of the attacks, one thing is already clear----there has been a worrisome increase in the lethality of the explosives available to the terrorists and their ability to use them effectively.
7. Public opinion has to force the Governments at the Centre and in the State and the political class as a whole to act before it is too late. (30-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Available police statistics of incidents involving explosions and civilian casualties caused by the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) since 2002 are given below:
YEAR NUMBER OF EXPLOSIONS CIVILIANS KILLED
2002 18 218
2003 19 260
2004 103 202
2005 121 65
2006 86 59
2007 70 124
2008 6 (till end January) NIL
The figures of civilians killed in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 include civilians killed by explosions as well as in attacks not involving IEDs.The figures for 2006 and 2007 refer to only civilians killed by IEDs. While there was a large number of incidents involving IEDs, the number of civilians killed per incident was low as compared to incidents involving IEDs caused by jihadi terrorists in other parts of India. This could be attributed to the fact that the explosive material used by the ULFA----much of it procured from Bangladesh--- was of low quality as compared to the material available to the jihadi terrorists --- whether procured from Pakistan or Bangladesh--- and the expertise in the use of IEDs imparted to the ULFA in the training camps in Bangladesh was also of inferior quality as compared to the expertise imparted to the jihadi terrorists---whether in Pakistan or Bangladesh.
A defining characteristic of the incidents involving the use of IEDs targeting civilians in Assam was that many of the incidents specifically targeted non-Assamese civilians while taking care not to target Assamese-speaking civilians and illegal Bangladeshi migrants. Jihadi terrorists in other parts of India make no distinction. They kill civilians indiscriminately---- without worrying about their religion, ethnic or linguistic origin.
Jihadi terrorism, as distinguished from the ethnic terrorism of the ULFA kind, has also started making inroads in Assam. According to the Assam Police, the following jihadi organisations are now active in Assam: The Muslim Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA); the Independent Liberation Army of Assam (ILAA); the People United Liberation Front (PULF); the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), whose Pakistani counterpart is a founding member of Osama bin Laden's International Islamic Front (IIF); and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), whose Pakistani counterpart is also a member of the IIF. According to them, the activities of all these organisations are co-ordinated by the Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen (JUM) of Bangladesh, which organised hundreds of simultaneous explosions of crude devices all over Bangladesh on August 17, 2005.
Some HUM cadres, along with two Pakistani nationals, were arrested in August, 1999. Forty-two HUM cadres, including some trained in the Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), surrendered till 2006-end. Four HUJI cadres trained in Bangladesh surrendered in August, 2004. One HUJI cadre was arrested in February, 2004. Till 2006-end, 370 jihadi terrorists belonging to different organisations had been arrested and 128 had surrendered.
The Security Forces in Assam have been putting up a determined fight against the ULFA killing 1,128 cadres since 1991 and till 2006-end and arresting 11,173 during the same period. 8,465 others surrendered. The result: decrease in cadre strength; erosion of its support base in the population; decrease in recruitment and fund collection; and shortage of arms and ammunition. In view of these developments, the ULFA started following a new modus operandi with the following features: decrease in specific targeted violence; increase in
indiscriminate violence directed at soft targets; targeting of vital installations in remote areas; attacks on security forces when and where possible; and use of unconscious third persons not suspected by the Police for having the IEDs planted in public places. The use of such unconscious third persons has been increasing.
However, the ULFA still has an estimated hardcore of 800 trained cadres and another 1,500 untrained cadres. There are no signs of any weakening of its morale and motivation. Its command and control orchestrated from Bangladesh is intact.
Any effective counter-terrorism strategy in Assam has to have the conventional components such as improving intelligence collection, analysis and assessment and co-ordinated follow-up action; improving the capability and resources of the police; strengthened physical security; and a well-tested crisis management drill. In addition, it must have a strong anti-illegal immigration component---to prevent any further illegal immigration from Bangladesh and the identification, arrests and deportation of those, who have already illegally entered India. Obviously for electoral reasons, there is a reluctance on the part of the Government to deal effectively with illegal immigration. This is likely to prove suicidal. Muslims constitute about 32 per cent of the population of Assam today. If the problem of illegal immigration from Bangladesh is not tackled, there is a real danger that in another 50 years, Assam might turn into a Muslim majority State.
Pakistan, Bangladesh and China have an interest in keeping Assam destabilised---each for its own reason. The interest of Pakistan and Bangladesh is in facilitating the emergence of a Muslim majority State and its ultimate secession from India. The interest of China is in weakening the Indian capability to protect Arunachal Pradesh in the likelihood of the unresolved border dispute over Arunachal Pradesh one day leading to a confrontation between India and China.
The previous Government headed by Shri A. B. Vajpayee was strong in rhetoric relating to terrorism, but weak in action. Its successor Govt. is weak in rhetoric as well as action. It seems to believe that confidence-building measures with neighbours who are sponsoring terrorism against India and the peace process would pay dividends in improving the terrorism situation on the ground. This is unlikely to happen. Lack of determination to act strongly and in time is already costing us heavily and will cost even more heavily in future.
---Extract from the Chapter titled ASSAM: TERRORISM & “SILENT UNARMED INVASION” in my book titled "Terrorism: Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow" published by the Lancer Publishers (www.lancerpublishers.com) of Delhi in June,2008
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
More than 50 persons are feared to have died and more than a hundred injured in over 10 blasts that were simultaneously orchestrated in Guwahati, the capital of Assam, and in the Districts of Barpeta and Kokrajhar on the night of October 29,2008. The picture regarding the exact number of explosions and the places where they took place is still confusing. Some reports put the number of explosions as high as 18. At least four of the blasts took place in Guwahati.
2. The people of Assam are not strangers to serial blasts carried out from time to time by the ULFA and jihadi organisations of Pakistani and Bangladeshi vintage, which have made inroads into the State by taking advantage of the uncontrolled illegal immigration of Muslims into the State from Bangladesh They have been operating separately of each other when possible and in co-ordination with each other, when necessary.
3. Assam has been the nerve-centre of a cocktail of terrorist organisations----ethnic and jihadi--- who have been systematically eating at the vitals of this State, which is key for protecting the integrity of India from the designs of Pakistan, Bangladesh and China.But nobody has had the time to pay attention to the alarming ground situation in this key State----neither the Congress (I) nor the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) nor any other party. Taking advantage of the lack of serious attention from the Government of India and the mainstream political parties, this cocktail of terrorists has been spreading havoc in the State.
4. "My heart goes out to the people of Assam," said Jawaharlal Nehru in a broadcast to the people of Assam as the Chinese troops were marching in in 1962. He did nothing to protect them before the Chinese invaded. His Government and its successors did precious little to protect this right arm of India and its people either from the Chinese in the event of another war or from the terrorist organisations of various hues which have come up in the State since the 1980s. Who is whose surrogate? Who is the surrogate of Pakistan? Who is the surrogate of Bangladesh? Who is the surrogate of China? Is there a joint co-ordination by Pakistan, Bangladesh and China to undermine the control of the Indian State? Nobody knows the answer.
5. Everyone is clueless---- the intelligence agencies, the police, the security forces, the political class. There is hardly any realisation of the seriousnress of the situation in Assam. One can even understand inadequacies and even incompetence, but one is alarmed by the total disinterest in Delhi in what is going on in Assam.
6. It is too early to say who was involved in the explosions of October 29---- the ULFA only or ULFA plus? One has to wait for the results of the investigation, but from the large number of casualties and the widespread nature of the attacks, one thing is already clear----there has been a worrisome increase in the lethality of the explosives available to the terrorists and their ability to use them effectively.
7. Public opinion has to force the Governments at the Centre and in the State and the political class as a whole to act before it is too late. (30-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
October 29, 2008
AFGHANISTAN: UNITED STATES/NATO STRATEGIC FATIGUE SPAWNS DANGEROUS ALTERNATIVES
By Dr. Subhash Kapila
Introductory Observations
Afghanistan my be passing through a critically testing military stage presently but what is disconcerting is that there seems to be an inspired campaign underway in the Western media and think- thanks to project that strategic fatigue has set-in in the United States and NATO policy establishments. Such projections would lead one to believe that the United States/NATO combine is exploring exit strategies from Afghanistan.
Available indicators suggest that while strategic fatigue may have set-in in some NATO participants in Afghanistan due to domestic pressures, the same cannot be said of the United States.
United States military operations in recent times have acquired added vigor after a review of United States operational strategy this year. The year 2008 marks the final denouement in United States – Pakistan military coalition (so-called) against global terror. While strategic analysts, including this Author, were constantly pointing out that Pakistan was double-timing the United States all along, it took the United States policy establishment six years to finally recognize it.
In fact what we are witnessing today in Afghanistan is not an Afghan civil war but a puny state like Pakistan (its nuclear weapons notwithstanding) challenging the military might of the global only superpower, namely the United States, through asymmetric war through its proxy insurgent outfit – the Taliban.
The aim of United States military intervention in Afghanistan in 2001-2002 was to evict the brutal medieval Islamic Jehadi regime from Kabul for its role in brutally converting Afghanistan into the Mecca of Islamic Jehad which acted as a magnet for the Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups from the Islamic world. At the time of its military intervention in Afghanistan, the United States was aware that Pakistan was criminally culpable for 9/11 events and the hosting of Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The United States ignored all that and finds itself in the present strategic quagmire that Pakistan’s treachery generated for USA.
Post-9/11 and up till now, Pakistan nurtured and regrouped the Taliban within Pakistan hoping that with strategic fatigue eventually creeping in US-NATO combine the Taliban could be used once again as an instrument of its strategic objective to enslave Afghanistan.
The armed conflict turbulence in Afghanistan today is a violent contest between the US-NATO combine to stabilize Afghanistan and the Taliban (with Pakistani support) attempting to regain control over tracts of territory in Southern Afghanistan, more specificall, before a final push to Kabul.
With the Taliban unable to make major strategic gains, an inspired campaign is underway, exploiting the gullibility of highly paid Western journalists in Kabul and also some Western think tanks and intellectuals to over-hype and over-sensationalize Taliban gains in Afghanistan and minimize the tactical successes of US-NATO military forces.
This inspired campaign has spawned in its wake some dangerous alternatives detrimental to United States strategic interests, namely to explore an exit strategy from Afghanistan and secondly to co-opt the Taliban in a dialogue with the Karzai Government with the ultimate aim of Taliban sharing political power in Kabul.
While the first dangerous alternative is not being seriously considered, the second dangerous alternative of dialogue with the Taliban has made some tentative gains with Afghan-Taliban dialogue in Saudi Arabia engineered by Pakistan and British intelligence agencies with a grudging nod by USA.
It is amazing and the height of strategic naivety for the United States to have given a nod to the second dangerous alternative by pressuring Afghan President Karzai for Afghan participation in a dialogue with the Taliban in Saudi Arabia.
Can it be forgotten that 9/11 would have never taken place had “The Other Axis of Evil” of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia were pre-empted by the United States from the creation of Taliban and ensconcing of Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan.
Can it also be forgotten that the inclusion of “moderate Taliban” in the Kabul Government in 2002 was mooted by Pakistan’s General Musharraf to ensure Pakistan’s hold in Kabul and was wisely rejected by USA. A Taliban has no shades; the Taliban are a fundamentalist Islamic armed insurgent militia believing in medieval brutality.
How come that the inclusion of the Taliban in an Afghan-Taliban political dialogue has been brought about? Reports indicate that this has been advocated by European countries, and particularly Britain.
The United States policy establishment should take this as a wake-up call and prevent such dangerous alternatives taking shape which are grossly in contradiction and capable if endangering United States global and regional strategic interests.
To highlight the dangers to US national security interests by advocacy of dangerous and defeatist alternatives, this Paper intends to examine the following perspectives:
United States Strategic Interests in Afghanistan
Taliban No Strategic Asset for United States
Taliban is a Strategic Asset for Pakistan and Saudi Arabia
Afghanistan is a Strategic Asset for United States and Not Pakistan
Afghanistan Can be Reclaimed by United States as a Moderate, Democratic Islamic State
US Intellectuals Must Disabuse Their Minds that Pakistan’s Sensitivities are Paramount in Solution of Afghanistan Conflict
United States Strategic Interests in Afghanistan
United States strategic Interests in Afghanistan should determine the centrality of all United States policies and strategies in the securement of Afghanistan as a stable state and its protection against Islamic fundamentalist onslaughts.
The United States when it entered Afghanistan in its military intervention and secured Kabul in 2002 with the assistance of Northern Alliance Forces had a two pronged strategy, namely (1) Regime change in Afghanistan by evicting the Taliban occupation of Afghanistan and (2) Dismantle the Islamic Jihadi terrorist infrastructure in Afghanistan of the Taliban and Al Qaeda.
The United States succeeded in both its strategic aims except that Pakistan pre-empted the capture of Taliban and Al Qaeda leadership and cadres by spiriting them away to sanctuaries within Pakistan, out of reach of US Forces.
In gross contradiction to US strategic aims the United States airlifted nearly 12,000 Pakistan Army operatives who provided the backbone of the Taliban from Kunduz away from retribution by Afghan tribesmen whom they had brutalized for nearly six years. This was a strategic blunder which is now costing heavily to the United States.
Notwithstanding the strategic blunders above, with the passage of time, United States strategic interests in Afghanistan today can be assessed as follows (1) Afghanistan’s emergence as a stable, democratic and moderate Islamic state contributing to regional stability (2) Afghanistan as a base for extension of American influence in Central Asia (3) Afghanistan as a possible springboard for neutralizing Iran (4) Afghanistan as a base for any future neutralization of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal (5) In any future confrontation with China, Afghanistan’s territory touching China and Afghan air bases can be crucial pivots for US military operations.
The United States therefore must cultivate and craft a long term strategic vision to ensure its presence in Afghanistan coupled with transformation and build-up of Afghanistan as a stable nation immune to Pakistani and Taliban covetous designs.
Taliban No Strategic Asset for United States
The strong advocacy of those favoring entering into a political dialogue with the Taliban and their inclusion in political power-sharing in Kabul would have been logical and understandable had there been even a remotest chance that the Taliban could be transformed into a strategic interest for the United States. The picture, however, is otherwise.
The Taliban are mercenary free-booters with no stake in the stability of Afghanistan. The Taliban are a creation and an instrument of the Pakistan Army tasked with the forcible subjugation of Afghanistan as a client state of Pakistan. Their operational strategies are pronouncedly medieval Islamic brutalism which is alien to the Afghan psyche
With such credentials the Taliban hardly qualify to be a strategic asset for the United States in any future US plans for Afghanistan. More frankly, the Taliban are the very anti-thesis of whatever the United States stands for in Afghanistan and their cooption would be an insult to all US-NATO lives lost in Afghanistan in defense of democracy and freedom.
Taliban is a Strategic Asset for Pakistan and Saudi Arabia
As a follow-up of the above, the United States needs to recognize that the Taliban and Al Qaeda were strategic assets of the “Other Axis of Evil” namely Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Both were instrumental in spawning the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and for 9/11 too. Please refer to the Author's Paper No. 548 dated 12/11/2002 entitled "United State and the Other Axis of Evil".
The above position continues today. Pakistan ensconced the Afghan Taliban hierarchy and the Taliban Shura under direct protection of the Pakistan Army in Quetta where it continues untouched till today. Surprisingly, the United States which has now become active in attacking Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda hide-outs within Pakistan in FATA has not touched Quetta where Mullah Omar and the Afghan Taliban are housed and from where all Taliban major operations in Southern Afghanistan are launched from.
Pakistan’s obsession with Afghan Taliban persists became it still remains as the only instrument to ensure Afghanistan’s subjugation as a client state of Pakistan subservient to its Pakistani strategic designs.
It needs to be recorded that Pakistan views the Pakistani Taliban as a threat to its security, but views and nurtures the Afghan Taliban as a strategic asset to be used for forcing the exit of USA from Afghanistan.
Is it not diabolical that the Pak-Saudi-sponsored Afghan-Taliban dialogue in Saudi Arabia should have the notorious Mujahideen leaders like Haqqani and Hekmatyar present there the same time? It does not augur well for the United States.
Saudi Arabia’s interest in the Taliban associated with the Al Qaeda as a strategic asset has been re-invented. In the words of Fareed Zakaria, Editor of News week: “Bin Laden began his struggle hoping to topple the Saudi regime. He is now aligned with the Saudi monarchy as it organizes against Shiite domination.”
Can it be over-looked that today Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are more closer to China than the United States. Can it be overlooked that both also are not on the best of terms with Iran.
Both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have plans to use the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda in their future strategic blueprints. Convergence exists again between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to place a Taliban Government in Kabul.
Afghanistan is a Strategic Asset for Untied States and Not Pakistan
The United States today is at strategic cross-roads in Greater South West Asia. It has a stark choice in deciding what are going to be its priorities in the region.
Pakistan is once again headed for state failure or worse state-disintegration as a result of its internal contradictions, exploiting Islamic Jehadi impulses as a foreign policy and strategic instrument and divisive tendencies within Pakistan.
Afghanistan on the other hand is reeling under a proxy jihadi onslaught launched not only against Afghanistan but also against United States-NATO combine intent on stabilizing Afghanistan. The Taliban are the proxies.
The United States therefore is confronted with a fateful choice, namely to save Pakistan or Afghanistan. The United States cannot save both as was argued in this Author’s SAAG Paper No. 2585 dated 13 Feb 2008 entitled "United States Fateful Choices: Save Afghanistan or Save Pakistan".
The major conclusion that was offered was that if USA chooses to save Afghanistan it has the chance of saving Pakistan as a follow-up. On the other hand if USA elects to save Pakistan at the cost of Afghanistan it could face the danger of losing both to disorder and fragmentation.
That Afghanistan is a prized strategic asset for the United States is even recognized by Pakistan. It is for nothing that Pakistan has persisted in the last six years to undermine the United States control of Afghanistan by utilizing the Taliban insurgency.
It is for nothing that Pakistan has audaciously dared to militarily challenge the United States as a global super- power through asymmetric warfare utilizing the Islamic fundamentalist Taliban insurgents. This is an ample indicator as to high the stakes are for Pakistan in Afghanistan.
A stabilized Afghanistan will share many strategic convergences with the United States. Pakistan if ever stabilized would never share any strategic convergences with the United States and moreso now with a growing US-India strategic partnership and its strategic alliance with China.
The new bogey raised by Pakistan Army against the United States is that it is intent on circumcising the only nuclear weapons arsenal in the Islamic world with the clandestine assistance of Israel. The United States is painted as a Christian power at war with the Islamic World.
It is amazing therefore as to how US intellectuals and strategic analysts discover strategic convergences with Pakistan where all indicators indicate otherwise.
Afghanistan Can be Reclaimed by United States as a Moderate, Democratic Islamic State
American analysts overlook many of the following indicators which suggest that Afghanistan can be reclaimed by the United States as a stable moderate, democratic Islamic state (1) The Afghan people are not anti-American like those in Pakistan (2) The Afghan people especially the Northern Alliance assisted and facilitated the
Taliban regime change by the United States (3) Following displacement of Taliban from Afghanistan there were no large-scale uprisings by Afghans against the United States (4) Afghan people took part in democratic elections to elect US-favored President Karzai (5) The Taliban has had limited successes in Afghanistan only in areas where US-NATO military presence in scarce. The major deduction here being that the Afghan people do not favor the Taliban.
More importantly, Northern and Western Afghanistan distantly located from Pakistan are relatively more peaceful, stabilized and have developed in the last six years. Southern Afghanistan was always troubled and become more troubled in the last six years as in the initial years after 2002, the United States militarily neglected it in the vain hope that Pakistan Army would play its part in controlling the Taliban on its behalf in this region. Pakistan however treacherously did otherwise.
In the last six years of US-NATO assisted Karzai regime, appreciable progress and reconstruction has taken place including in the social sectors like Afghan women emerging once again in the liberal mould.
Afghanistan and the Afghan people are ready to assist the United State to stabilize Afghanistan and re-build it into a progressive state, only if the United States does not display weakening of resolve in this direction and stops exploring dangerous alternatives like exit strategies and dialogue with the much Afghan-hated Taliban. The Afghan people look to USA for steely resolve in eliminating the Taliban threat to Afghanistan.
US Intellectuals Must Disabuse Their Minds that Pakistan’s Sensitivities are Paramount in Solution of Afghanistan Conflict
This Author has argued in earlier Papers on Afghanistan that the most glaring contributory failure of United States policy and strategies in Afghanistan was due to (1) Linkage of US policies in Afghanistan with Pakistan (2) Over-importance given to Pakistan’s sensitivities over Afghanistan (3) Over reliance on Pakistan by United States for intelligence and logistics support.
Sadly, this trend still persists as if the United States would collapse in Afghanistan without Pakistan. This trend has led to the acceptance of a dialogue with Taliban in Saudi Arabia. This trend leads to avoidable pressures, at times counter productive in Indian’s eyes that India must give concessions to Pakistan on Kashmir and keep the peace process going Suggestion keep surfacing that Afghanistan must not cozy up to India in deference to Palestinian sensitivities.
Similarly, there are pressures on President Karzai to recognize the Durand Line and talk with the Taliban.
All this talk is utterly ridiculous and especially when it comes from personages who have held important official positions in the US establishment.
Illustrative of this line of thought and which persists till today was a joint articles by Karl Inderfurth former US Assistant Secretary of State and Dennis Kux former US diplomat in the Baltimore Sun in December 2006. Main points made were
USA and key allies should prevail over Afghanistan to recognize the Durand Line.
Urged Washington to use influence with Karzai Government “to take greater account of Islamabad sensitivities in dealing with India”.
“Even though India continues to provide generous economic assistance to Afghanistan, Kabul would be wise to address Pakistani concerns”.
Such wise men should have recommended otherwise, namely (1) USA should liquidate the Taliban from Quetta and its surroundings (2) US aid should be conditional on the same (3) US will militarily intervene in Pakistan to achieve the foregoing if Taliban continues to operate from Quetta and elsewhere (4) US will not enter into any dialogue with Taliban and nor will the Karzai regime.
In this connection one would like to quote the remarks of the Australian Defense Minister Fitzgibbon who was quoted in ‘The Australia’ December 17, 2007 that while NATO had been successfully “stomping on lots of ants, we have not been dealing with the ant’s nests”.
Need it be said that the ant’s nests are in Quetta area of Pakistan and it is only the Al Qaeda and Pakistani Taliban that are in FATA. Quetta Taliban are the major threat to Afghanistan.
Concluding Observations
Afghanistan is a prized strategic asset by virtue of its geo-political setting adjoining West Asia, Central Asia, China and South Asia. It is also of great strategic value to Russia.
With such a strategic setting it would be strategically disastrous for the United States to forego its strategic and political gains of the last six years in Afghanistan just to humour Pakistani sensitivities.
The United States must recognize that Pakistan aided by Saudi Arabia and with the tacit support of China, is the root of all strategic turbulence that afflicts Afghanistan. Pakistan therefore cannot be the part of the solution to stabilize Afghanistan.
The United States can only stabilize Afghanistan if America’s Afghan policies are delinked from Pakistan and America warns Pakistan of retribution if it persists in disruptive policies in Afghanistan through proxy use of the Taliban.
(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com)
Introductory Observations
Afghanistan my be passing through a critically testing military stage presently but what is disconcerting is that there seems to be an inspired campaign underway in the Western media and think- thanks to project that strategic fatigue has set-in in the United States and NATO policy establishments. Such projections would lead one to believe that the United States/NATO combine is exploring exit strategies from Afghanistan.
Available indicators suggest that while strategic fatigue may have set-in in some NATO participants in Afghanistan due to domestic pressures, the same cannot be said of the United States.
United States military operations in recent times have acquired added vigor after a review of United States operational strategy this year. The year 2008 marks the final denouement in United States – Pakistan military coalition (so-called) against global terror. While strategic analysts, including this Author, were constantly pointing out that Pakistan was double-timing the United States all along, it took the United States policy establishment six years to finally recognize it.
In fact what we are witnessing today in Afghanistan is not an Afghan civil war but a puny state like Pakistan (its nuclear weapons notwithstanding) challenging the military might of the global only superpower, namely the United States, through asymmetric war through its proxy insurgent outfit – the Taliban.
The aim of United States military intervention in Afghanistan in 2001-2002 was to evict the brutal medieval Islamic Jehadi regime from Kabul for its role in brutally converting Afghanistan into the Mecca of Islamic Jehad which acted as a magnet for the Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups from the Islamic world. At the time of its military intervention in Afghanistan, the United States was aware that Pakistan was criminally culpable for 9/11 events and the hosting of Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The United States ignored all that and finds itself in the present strategic quagmire that Pakistan’s treachery generated for USA.
Post-9/11 and up till now, Pakistan nurtured and regrouped the Taliban within Pakistan hoping that with strategic fatigue eventually creeping in US-NATO combine the Taliban could be used once again as an instrument of its strategic objective to enslave Afghanistan.
The armed conflict turbulence in Afghanistan today is a violent contest between the US-NATO combine to stabilize Afghanistan and the Taliban (with Pakistani support) attempting to regain control over tracts of territory in Southern Afghanistan, more specificall, before a final push to Kabul.
With the Taliban unable to make major strategic gains, an inspired campaign is underway, exploiting the gullibility of highly paid Western journalists in Kabul and also some Western think tanks and intellectuals to over-hype and over-sensationalize Taliban gains in Afghanistan and minimize the tactical successes of US-NATO military forces.
This inspired campaign has spawned in its wake some dangerous alternatives detrimental to United States strategic interests, namely to explore an exit strategy from Afghanistan and secondly to co-opt the Taliban in a dialogue with the Karzai Government with the ultimate aim of Taliban sharing political power in Kabul.
While the first dangerous alternative is not being seriously considered, the second dangerous alternative of dialogue with the Taliban has made some tentative gains with Afghan-Taliban dialogue in Saudi Arabia engineered by Pakistan and British intelligence agencies with a grudging nod by USA.
It is amazing and the height of strategic naivety for the United States to have given a nod to the second dangerous alternative by pressuring Afghan President Karzai for Afghan participation in a dialogue with the Taliban in Saudi Arabia.
Can it be forgotten that 9/11 would have never taken place had “The Other Axis of Evil” of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia were pre-empted by the United States from the creation of Taliban and ensconcing of Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan.
Can it also be forgotten that the inclusion of “moderate Taliban” in the Kabul Government in 2002 was mooted by Pakistan’s General Musharraf to ensure Pakistan’s hold in Kabul and was wisely rejected by USA. A Taliban has no shades; the Taliban are a fundamentalist Islamic armed insurgent militia believing in medieval brutality.
How come that the inclusion of the Taliban in an Afghan-Taliban political dialogue has been brought about? Reports indicate that this has been advocated by European countries, and particularly Britain.
The United States policy establishment should take this as a wake-up call and prevent such dangerous alternatives taking shape which are grossly in contradiction and capable if endangering United States global and regional strategic interests.
To highlight the dangers to US national security interests by advocacy of dangerous and defeatist alternatives, this Paper intends to examine the following perspectives:
United States Strategic Interests in Afghanistan
Taliban No Strategic Asset for United States
Taliban is a Strategic Asset for Pakistan and Saudi Arabia
Afghanistan is a Strategic Asset for United States and Not Pakistan
Afghanistan Can be Reclaimed by United States as a Moderate, Democratic Islamic State
US Intellectuals Must Disabuse Their Minds that Pakistan’s Sensitivities are Paramount in Solution of Afghanistan Conflict
United States Strategic Interests in Afghanistan
United States strategic Interests in Afghanistan should determine the centrality of all United States policies and strategies in the securement of Afghanistan as a stable state and its protection against Islamic fundamentalist onslaughts.
The United States when it entered Afghanistan in its military intervention and secured Kabul in 2002 with the assistance of Northern Alliance Forces had a two pronged strategy, namely (1) Regime change in Afghanistan by evicting the Taliban occupation of Afghanistan and (2) Dismantle the Islamic Jihadi terrorist infrastructure in Afghanistan of the Taliban and Al Qaeda.
The United States succeeded in both its strategic aims except that Pakistan pre-empted the capture of Taliban and Al Qaeda leadership and cadres by spiriting them away to sanctuaries within Pakistan, out of reach of US Forces.
In gross contradiction to US strategic aims the United States airlifted nearly 12,000 Pakistan Army operatives who provided the backbone of the Taliban from Kunduz away from retribution by Afghan tribesmen whom they had brutalized for nearly six years. This was a strategic blunder which is now costing heavily to the United States.
Notwithstanding the strategic blunders above, with the passage of time, United States strategic interests in Afghanistan today can be assessed as follows (1) Afghanistan’s emergence as a stable, democratic and moderate Islamic state contributing to regional stability (2) Afghanistan as a base for extension of American influence in Central Asia (3) Afghanistan as a possible springboard for neutralizing Iran (4) Afghanistan as a base for any future neutralization of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal (5) In any future confrontation with China, Afghanistan’s territory touching China and Afghan air bases can be crucial pivots for US military operations.
The United States therefore must cultivate and craft a long term strategic vision to ensure its presence in Afghanistan coupled with transformation and build-up of Afghanistan as a stable nation immune to Pakistani and Taliban covetous designs.
Taliban No Strategic Asset for United States
The strong advocacy of those favoring entering into a political dialogue with the Taliban and their inclusion in political power-sharing in Kabul would have been logical and understandable had there been even a remotest chance that the Taliban could be transformed into a strategic interest for the United States. The picture, however, is otherwise.
The Taliban are mercenary free-booters with no stake in the stability of Afghanistan. The Taliban are a creation and an instrument of the Pakistan Army tasked with the forcible subjugation of Afghanistan as a client state of Pakistan. Their operational strategies are pronouncedly medieval Islamic brutalism which is alien to the Afghan psyche
With such credentials the Taliban hardly qualify to be a strategic asset for the United States in any future US plans for Afghanistan. More frankly, the Taliban are the very anti-thesis of whatever the United States stands for in Afghanistan and their cooption would be an insult to all US-NATO lives lost in Afghanistan in defense of democracy and freedom.
Taliban is a Strategic Asset for Pakistan and Saudi Arabia
As a follow-up of the above, the United States needs to recognize that the Taliban and Al Qaeda were strategic assets of the “Other Axis of Evil” namely Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Both were instrumental in spawning the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and for 9/11 too. Please refer to the Author's Paper No. 548 dated 12/11/2002 entitled "United State and the Other Axis of Evil".
The above position continues today. Pakistan ensconced the Afghan Taliban hierarchy and the Taliban Shura under direct protection of the Pakistan Army in Quetta where it continues untouched till today. Surprisingly, the United States which has now become active in attacking Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda hide-outs within Pakistan in FATA has not touched Quetta where Mullah Omar and the Afghan Taliban are housed and from where all Taliban major operations in Southern Afghanistan are launched from.
Pakistan’s obsession with Afghan Taliban persists became it still remains as the only instrument to ensure Afghanistan’s subjugation as a client state of Pakistan subservient to its Pakistani strategic designs.
It needs to be recorded that Pakistan views the Pakistani Taliban as a threat to its security, but views and nurtures the Afghan Taliban as a strategic asset to be used for forcing the exit of USA from Afghanistan.
Is it not diabolical that the Pak-Saudi-sponsored Afghan-Taliban dialogue in Saudi Arabia should have the notorious Mujahideen leaders like Haqqani and Hekmatyar present there the same time? It does not augur well for the United States.
Saudi Arabia’s interest in the Taliban associated with the Al Qaeda as a strategic asset has been re-invented. In the words of Fareed Zakaria, Editor of News week: “Bin Laden began his struggle hoping to topple the Saudi regime. He is now aligned with the Saudi monarchy as it organizes against Shiite domination.”
Can it be over-looked that today Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are more closer to China than the United States. Can it be overlooked that both also are not on the best of terms with Iran.
Both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have plans to use the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda in their future strategic blueprints. Convergence exists again between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to place a Taliban Government in Kabul.
Afghanistan is a Strategic Asset for Untied States and Not Pakistan
The United States today is at strategic cross-roads in Greater South West Asia. It has a stark choice in deciding what are going to be its priorities in the region.
Pakistan is once again headed for state failure or worse state-disintegration as a result of its internal contradictions, exploiting Islamic Jehadi impulses as a foreign policy and strategic instrument and divisive tendencies within Pakistan.
Afghanistan on the other hand is reeling under a proxy jihadi onslaught launched not only against Afghanistan but also against United States-NATO combine intent on stabilizing Afghanistan. The Taliban are the proxies.
The United States therefore is confronted with a fateful choice, namely to save Pakistan or Afghanistan. The United States cannot save both as was argued in this Author’s SAAG Paper No. 2585 dated 13 Feb 2008 entitled "United States Fateful Choices: Save Afghanistan or Save Pakistan".
The major conclusion that was offered was that if USA chooses to save Afghanistan it has the chance of saving Pakistan as a follow-up. On the other hand if USA elects to save Pakistan at the cost of Afghanistan it could face the danger of losing both to disorder and fragmentation.
That Afghanistan is a prized strategic asset for the United States is even recognized by Pakistan. It is for nothing that Pakistan has persisted in the last six years to undermine the United States control of Afghanistan by utilizing the Taliban insurgency.
It is for nothing that Pakistan has audaciously dared to militarily challenge the United States as a global super- power through asymmetric warfare utilizing the Islamic fundamentalist Taliban insurgents. This is an ample indicator as to high the stakes are for Pakistan in Afghanistan.
A stabilized Afghanistan will share many strategic convergences with the United States. Pakistan if ever stabilized would never share any strategic convergences with the United States and moreso now with a growing US-India strategic partnership and its strategic alliance with China.
The new bogey raised by Pakistan Army against the United States is that it is intent on circumcising the only nuclear weapons arsenal in the Islamic world with the clandestine assistance of Israel. The United States is painted as a Christian power at war with the Islamic World.
It is amazing therefore as to how US intellectuals and strategic analysts discover strategic convergences with Pakistan where all indicators indicate otherwise.
Afghanistan Can be Reclaimed by United States as a Moderate, Democratic Islamic State
American analysts overlook many of the following indicators which suggest that Afghanistan can be reclaimed by the United States as a stable moderate, democratic Islamic state (1) The Afghan people are not anti-American like those in Pakistan (2) The Afghan people especially the Northern Alliance assisted and facilitated the
Taliban regime change by the United States (3) Following displacement of Taliban from Afghanistan there were no large-scale uprisings by Afghans against the United States (4) Afghan people took part in democratic elections to elect US-favored President Karzai (5) The Taliban has had limited successes in Afghanistan only in areas where US-NATO military presence in scarce. The major deduction here being that the Afghan people do not favor the Taliban.
More importantly, Northern and Western Afghanistan distantly located from Pakistan are relatively more peaceful, stabilized and have developed in the last six years. Southern Afghanistan was always troubled and become more troubled in the last six years as in the initial years after 2002, the United States militarily neglected it in the vain hope that Pakistan Army would play its part in controlling the Taliban on its behalf in this region. Pakistan however treacherously did otherwise.
In the last six years of US-NATO assisted Karzai regime, appreciable progress and reconstruction has taken place including in the social sectors like Afghan women emerging once again in the liberal mould.
Afghanistan and the Afghan people are ready to assist the United State to stabilize Afghanistan and re-build it into a progressive state, only if the United States does not display weakening of resolve in this direction and stops exploring dangerous alternatives like exit strategies and dialogue with the much Afghan-hated Taliban. The Afghan people look to USA for steely resolve in eliminating the Taliban threat to Afghanistan.
US Intellectuals Must Disabuse Their Minds that Pakistan’s Sensitivities are Paramount in Solution of Afghanistan Conflict
This Author has argued in earlier Papers on Afghanistan that the most glaring contributory failure of United States policy and strategies in Afghanistan was due to (1) Linkage of US policies in Afghanistan with Pakistan (2) Over-importance given to Pakistan’s sensitivities over Afghanistan (3) Over reliance on Pakistan by United States for intelligence and logistics support.
Sadly, this trend still persists as if the United States would collapse in Afghanistan without Pakistan. This trend has led to the acceptance of a dialogue with Taliban in Saudi Arabia. This trend leads to avoidable pressures, at times counter productive in Indian’s eyes that India must give concessions to Pakistan on Kashmir and keep the peace process going Suggestion keep surfacing that Afghanistan must not cozy up to India in deference to Palestinian sensitivities.
Similarly, there are pressures on President Karzai to recognize the Durand Line and talk with the Taliban.
All this talk is utterly ridiculous and especially when it comes from personages who have held important official positions in the US establishment.
Illustrative of this line of thought and which persists till today was a joint articles by Karl Inderfurth former US Assistant Secretary of State and Dennis Kux former US diplomat in the Baltimore Sun in December 2006. Main points made were
USA and key allies should prevail over Afghanistan to recognize the Durand Line.
Urged Washington to use influence with Karzai Government “to take greater account of Islamabad sensitivities in dealing with India”.
“Even though India continues to provide generous economic assistance to Afghanistan, Kabul would be wise to address Pakistani concerns”.
Such wise men should have recommended otherwise, namely (1) USA should liquidate the Taliban from Quetta and its surroundings (2) US aid should be conditional on the same (3) US will militarily intervene in Pakistan to achieve the foregoing if Taliban continues to operate from Quetta and elsewhere (4) US will not enter into any dialogue with Taliban and nor will the Karzai regime.
In this connection one would like to quote the remarks of the Australian Defense Minister Fitzgibbon who was quoted in ‘The Australia’ December 17, 2007 that while NATO had been successfully “stomping on lots of ants, we have not been dealing with the ant’s nests”.
Need it be said that the ant’s nests are in Quetta area of Pakistan and it is only the Al Qaeda and Pakistani Taliban that are in FATA. Quetta Taliban are the major threat to Afghanistan.
Concluding Observations
Afghanistan is a prized strategic asset by virtue of its geo-political setting adjoining West Asia, Central Asia, China and South Asia. It is also of great strategic value to Russia.
With such a strategic setting it would be strategically disastrous for the United States to forego its strategic and political gains of the last six years in Afghanistan just to humour Pakistani sensitivities.
The United States must recognize that Pakistan aided by Saudi Arabia and with the tacit support of China, is the root of all strategic turbulence that afflicts Afghanistan. Pakistan therefore cannot be the part of the solution to stabilize Afghanistan.
The United States can only stabilize Afghanistan if America’s Afghan policies are delinked from Pakistan and America warns Pakistan of retribution if it persists in disruptive policies in Afghanistan through proxy use of the Taliban.
(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com)
How Acute Is China’s Power Struggle?
By Bhaskar Roy
The world was watching how China would behave after a successful hosting of the Summer Olympics, 2008. It was not only a case of successful games. There was unprecedented extravaganza in the opening ceremony – awesome, most would say. It displayed an equally high show of its athletic prowess, bagging the maximum number of medals. Despite the hyped terrorist threats, the games went through incident free, with a hundred thousand troops deployed for security, backed by missile batteries around Beijing. The powerful Propaganda Department of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the government went on an over drive to raise nationalism and Chinese pride over everything else. Everything else was subsumed – for the moment.
The power of the propaganda department and the Ministry of Culture has been well documented during the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution. That force though moderated, has not diminished very much over the years. A recent authoritative Chinese think tank report said that the propaganda apparatus can unleash the forces of nationalism and control them at its will. After the Olympic games a senior Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) official said, in the context of the protests by Tibetans in March 2008, that the press was the strongest weapon. This was a direct reference to how Chinese propaganda subsumed international outrage over Chinese security forces dealing with the Tibetan protests. The manner in which the propaganda department and the state council managed and controlled news was bound to cause intra-party conflicts and raise questions from the people on political reforms. Melamine contamination of baby food and other milk products, the extent of real damage in the Sichuan earthquake including possible radio active leaks from nuclear plants were suppressed to present a picture of a well oiled China to the world for the Olympics. It was, therefore, a matter of time before the sharp political and ideological differences came out in the open.
Although erstwhile Party General Secretary Jiang Zemin, and current party boss Hu Jintao were both late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping’s nominees they came during different periods of time. Jiang was brought in from Shanghai after the 1989 students’ uprising when political reforms were brought to a halt. About ten years later he tried to bring in some liberal political restructuring inside the party, but implemented only a part of Deng Xiaoping’s road map. Jiang’s family and supporters known as the Shanghai clique got into serious corruption while pursuing very high speed development of the coastal areas at the cost of the vast poor hinterland and rural areas.
Hu Jintao, who is not even a closet liberal, decided to attack the coastal plans and focus on the rural construction. He is yet to be very successful in his efforts. From Hu Jintao’s point of view disappointment and resentment among the rural population comprising 800 million people cannot be left unaddressed any longer. Hu used Mao Zedong very liberally to push through his agenda.
Hu Jintao’s Premier, Wen Jiabao, while fully contributing to Hu’s ideas, is basically progressive. After the Tien An Men square incident he was banished into political obscurity for having met the protesting students along with the Party General Secretary Zhao Ziyang. Few of those punished at that time made a come back. But Wen managed to return successfully, during Deng’s life time.
This was a part of the late Deng Xiaoping’s plan to balance the more liberal with the conservatives to ensure that 1989 did not repeat. Jiang Zemin shuffled between the two sides depending on the situation. He was known as the “wind faction”. Jiang still remains a powerful centre of influence and continues to lead the Shanghai faction.
The uneven development between the rural and urban sectors in China appears to be the burning issue. But the problem is deeper. It is a question of ideology and politics, and each faction interprets or, as the Chinese idealogues prefer to say, “scientifically develop” and apply them for the benefit of the country. There are strong personal animosity among top leaders, too. Therefore, Mao Zedong thought, Deng Xiaoping’s theory, the “Three Represents” (associated with Jiang Zemin), and the liberal (not pluralistic) groups have got into serious contention.
Three recent developments need to be seen in the context of inter-factional fights. They provide some insight into the problem. On a tour to the southern province of Guangdong in the third week of October, politburo standing committee member Li Changchun laid a wreath at the statue of Deng Xiaoping in the Special Economic Zone (SEZ), Shenzen. He also called for efforts to overcome obstacles to “Scientific development”, heighten public awareness of development requirements, and promote development of “Socialist culture”.
Li Changchun’s activities in Guangdong are very significant. He tried to reenact Deng Xiaoping’s famous 1992 tour to Guangdong to force the conservatives to open up credit lines of banks to help develop the coastal region, Shenzen being the star special Economic Zone (SEZ). Laying a wreath at a leader’s statue is an exceptional act for a top communist party leader. Deng’s theory of socialism envisaged development of the coastal region first because of their geographical importance, and transfer this to the poor rural areas and hinterland. Li, a member of the Shanghai faction did not make any mention of the rural China. His visit was briefly reported in the Party mouthpiece, the People’s Daily, of October 22, 2008.
On September 28, in the run up to the 3rd plenary session of the 17th Party Congress (Oct.9-12), the People’s Daily carried another highly loaded brief report from the Party’s news net. In a sharp attack on lateral induction of businessmen and professionals in higher levels of the party, it charged that these people did not have political ideology training and experience and were corrupting young party cadres as their future centers of power and profit.
This was a serious attack on Jiang Zemin and his policy to induct top professionals, businessmen and experts into the party to boost the economy as a global leader. Like the “wind faction” he is known as, Jiang had downgraded ideology. Other reports and opinions carried by the People’s Daily tried to protect him with conclusions that what Jiang did was, correct, but that his successor had mismanaged the policy.
Jiang Zemin and the Shanghai clique are apparently under attack of privatizing the industries in much the same way the Soviet Union did under President Mikhail Gorbachev which led to the dismemberment of the country into new independent states. Basically, it is the question of loosening the control of the party over the country. The Shanghai faction is trying to fight this charge, arguing they are very conscious of the Soviet experience, and the arterial industries remain firmly in the hands of the state.
The third issue is some serious dismay among progressive state owned media organizations, intellectuals, and even some bureaucrats over media control and control over important information affecting the lives of the people. The reputed Guangdong magazine, the Southern Window, has come out with several articles stating suffocating state control is preventing action of law.
The Guangdong based media, which has tried to establish some freedom, has also complained of restrictions from the Centre when reporting on melamine contamination of milk products in the run up to the Olympics. The authorities were only bothered about the Olympics had no concern for of infants who were being slowly poisoned by these products.
Even worse, officials in Beijing have told foreign journalists that party leaders and senior bureaucrats consume only specially grown organic foodstuff from meats to rice and vegetables, suggesting that in the socialist society of China some people are more equal than others.
According to the well informed Hong Kong magazine “Open” (Kaifang), mistakes from all sides may be looking for a scapegoat, and that is premier Wen Jiabao. Political ideological article have started sniping at Wen, projecting him a man with western liberal ideas. His record of 1989 is emerging as his Achilles’ heel.
Hu Jintao may agree to sacrifice Wen Jiabao to protect his own position. It could be a quid pro quo. Hu worked to dismiss Jiang Zemin’s team member, Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) member, Li Changchun, last year, on charges of corruption. He was the first PBSC member to be dismissed on such a change – a serious loss of face for the Shanghai clique. Wen is already being quietly removed from some important leading bodies.
The official photograph line up of the 3rd plenum of the 17th party congress clearly indicated that Vice president Xi Jinping was Hu Jinto’s successor, and Li Keqing would take over from Wen Jiabao. Li Keqing is from the Communist Yough League (CYL), Hu Jintao’s constituency. China’s internal politics appears to be moving into an area of conflicting politics and ideology. Removing a serving Premier will be difficult to explain to party cadres, intellectuals and bureaucrats. Wen Jiabao has endeared himself to the people of Sichuan in the earthquake relief efforts. He was also in the forefront in relief efforts last December in the huge snowfall disaster. China has come a long way from 1989.
The draconian measures adopted by the authorities not only to control information, but also to virtually stymie the common people appears to have gone against the rising expectations that the party was moving towards more transparency and basic democracy which the Chinese people were hoping for as a result of Hu Jintao’s promise.
Finally, the growing conflict in political ideology, parts of which overlap between the two factions must be noted. It appears that Vice President and PBSC member Xi Jinping, who is reported to come from a princeling faction, is trying to find an undisturbed transition from Mao Zedong to Deng Xiaoping in practical ideology. Jiang Zemin, by himself, does not appear to figure prominently in the first and second generation leadership in Xi’s exposition.
China’s internal politics is still cloudy. But it may not be surprising if things suddenly start unravelling. The international community cannot look away from these developments. Close neighbours like India need to take special account of these developments.
(The author is an eminent China analyst with many years of experience of study on the developments in China. He can be reached at grouchohart@yahoo.com)
The world was watching how China would behave after a successful hosting of the Summer Olympics, 2008. It was not only a case of successful games. There was unprecedented extravaganza in the opening ceremony – awesome, most would say. It displayed an equally high show of its athletic prowess, bagging the maximum number of medals. Despite the hyped terrorist threats, the games went through incident free, with a hundred thousand troops deployed for security, backed by missile batteries around Beijing. The powerful Propaganda Department of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the government went on an over drive to raise nationalism and Chinese pride over everything else. Everything else was subsumed – for the moment.
The power of the propaganda department and the Ministry of Culture has been well documented during the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution. That force though moderated, has not diminished very much over the years. A recent authoritative Chinese think tank report said that the propaganda apparatus can unleash the forces of nationalism and control them at its will. After the Olympic games a senior Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) official said, in the context of the protests by Tibetans in March 2008, that the press was the strongest weapon. This was a direct reference to how Chinese propaganda subsumed international outrage over Chinese security forces dealing with the Tibetan protests. The manner in which the propaganda department and the state council managed and controlled news was bound to cause intra-party conflicts and raise questions from the people on political reforms. Melamine contamination of baby food and other milk products, the extent of real damage in the Sichuan earthquake including possible radio active leaks from nuclear plants were suppressed to present a picture of a well oiled China to the world for the Olympics. It was, therefore, a matter of time before the sharp political and ideological differences came out in the open.
Although erstwhile Party General Secretary Jiang Zemin, and current party boss Hu Jintao were both late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping’s nominees they came during different periods of time. Jiang was brought in from Shanghai after the 1989 students’ uprising when political reforms were brought to a halt. About ten years later he tried to bring in some liberal political restructuring inside the party, but implemented only a part of Deng Xiaoping’s road map. Jiang’s family and supporters known as the Shanghai clique got into serious corruption while pursuing very high speed development of the coastal areas at the cost of the vast poor hinterland and rural areas.
Hu Jintao, who is not even a closet liberal, decided to attack the coastal plans and focus on the rural construction. He is yet to be very successful in his efforts. From Hu Jintao’s point of view disappointment and resentment among the rural population comprising 800 million people cannot be left unaddressed any longer. Hu used Mao Zedong very liberally to push through his agenda.
Hu Jintao’s Premier, Wen Jiabao, while fully contributing to Hu’s ideas, is basically progressive. After the Tien An Men square incident he was banished into political obscurity for having met the protesting students along with the Party General Secretary Zhao Ziyang. Few of those punished at that time made a come back. But Wen managed to return successfully, during Deng’s life time.
This was a part of the late Deng Xiaoping’s plan to balance the more liberal with the conservatives to ensure that 1989 did not repeat. Jiang Zemin shuffled between the two sides depending on the situation. He was known as the “wind faction”. Jiang still remains a powerful centre of influence and continues to lead the Shanghai faction.
The uneven development between the rural and urban sectors in China appears to be the burning issue. But the problem is deeper. It is a question of ideology and politics, and each faction interprets or, as the Chinese idealogues prefer to say, “scientifically develop” and apply them for the benefit of the country. There are strong personal animosity among top leaders, too. Therefore, Mao Zedong thought, Deng Xiaoping’s theory, the “Three Represents” (associated with Jiang Zemin), and the liberal (not pluralistic) groups have got into serious contention.
Three recent developments need to be seen in the context of inter-factional fights. They provide some insight into the problem. On a tour to the southern province of Guangdong in the third week of October, politburo standing committee member Li Changchun laid a wreath at the statue of Deng Xiaoping in the Special Economic Zone (SEZ), Shenzen. He also called for efforts to overcome obstacles to “Scientific development”, heighten public awareness of development requirements, and promote development of “Socialist culture”.
Li Changchun’s activities in Guangdong are very significant. He tried to reenact Deng Xiaoping’s famous 1992 tour to Guangdong to force the conservatives to open up credit lines of banks to help develop the coastal region, Shenzen being the star special Economic Zone (SEZ). Laying a wreath at a leader’s statue is an exceptional act for a top communist party leader. Deng’s theory of socialism envisaged development of the coastal region first because of their geographical importance, and transfer this to the poor rural areas and hinterland. Li, a member of the Shanghai faction did not make any mention of the rural China. His visit was briefly reported in the Party mouthpiece, the People’s Daily, of October 22, 2008.
On September 28, in the run up to the 3rd plenary session of the 17th Party Congress (Oct.9-12), the People’s Daily carried another highly loaded brief report from the Party’s news net. In a sharp attack on lateral induction of businessmen and professionals in higher levels of the party, it charged that these people did not have political ideology training and experience and were corrupting young party cadres as their future centers of power and profit.
This was a serious attack on Jiang Zemin and his policy to induct top professionals, businessmen and experts into the party to boost the economy as a global leader. Like the “wind faction” he is known as, Jiang had downgraded ideology. Other reports and opinions carried by the People’s Daily tried to protect him with conclusions that what Jiang did was, correct, but that his successor had mismanaged the policy.
Jiang Zemin and the Shanghai clique are apparently under attack of privatizing the industries in much the same way the Soviet Union did under President Mikhail Gorbachev which led to the dismemberment of the country into new independent states. Basically, it is the question of loosening the control of the party over the country. The Shanghai faction is trying to fight this charge, arguing they are very conscious of the Soviet experience, and the arterial industries remain firmly in the hands of the state.
The third issue is some serious dismay among progressive state owned media organizations, intellectuals, and even some bureaucrats over media control and control over important information affecting the lives of the people. The reputed Guangdong magazine, the Southern Window, has come out with several articles stating suffocating state control is preventing action of law.
The Guangdong based media, which has tried to establish some freedom, has also complained of restrictions from the Centre when reporting on melamine contamination of milk products in the run up to the Olympics. The authorities were only bothered about the Olympics had no concern for of infants who were being slowly poisoned by these products.
Even worse, officials in Beijing have told foreign journalists that party leaders and senior bureaucrats consume only specially grown organic foodstuff from meats to rice and vegetables, suggesting that in the socialist society of China some people are more equal than others.
According to the well informed Hong Kong magazine “Open” (Kaifang), mistakes from all sides may be looking for a scapegoat, and that is premier Wen Jiabao. Political ideological article have started sniping at Wen, projecting him a man with western liberal ideas. His record of 1989 is emerging as his Achilles’ heel.
Hu Jintao may agree to sacrifice Wen Jiabao to protect his own position. It could be a quid pro quo. Hu worked to dismiss Jiang Zemin’s team member, Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) member, Li Changchun, last year, on charges of corruption. He was the first PBSC member to be dismissed on such a change – a serious loss of face for the Shanghai clique. Wen is already being quietly removed from some important leading bodies.
The official photograph line up of the 3rd plenum of the 17th party congress clearly indicated that Vice president Xi Jinping was Hu Jinto’s successor, and Li Keqing would take over from Wen Jiabao. Li Keqing is from the Communist Yough League (CYL), Hu Jintao’s constituency. China’s internal politics appears to be moving into an area of conflicting politics and ideology. Removing a serving Premier will be difficult to explain to party cadres, intellectuals and bureaucrats. Wen Jiabao has endeared himself to the people of Sichuan in the earthquake relief efforts. He was also in the forefront in relief efforts last December in the huge snowfall disaster. China has come a long way from 1989.
The draconian measures adopted by the authorities not only to control information, but also to virtually stymie the common people appears to have gone against the rising expectations that the party was moving towards more transparency and basic democracy which the Chinese people were hoping for as a result of Hu Jintao’s promise.
Finally, the growing conflict in political ideology, parts of which overlap between the two factions must be noted. It appears that Vice President and PBSC member Xi Jinping, who is reported to come from a princeling faction, is trying to find an undisturbed transition from Mao Zedong to Deng Xiaoping in practical ideology. Jiang Zemin, by himself, does not appear to figure prominently in the first and second generation leadership in Xi’s exposition.
China’s internal politics is still cloudy. But it may not be surprising if things suddenly start unravelling. The international community cannot look away from these developments. Close neighbours like India need to take special account of these developments.
(The author is an eminent China analyst with many years of experience of study on the developments in China. He can be reached at grouchohart@yahoo.com)
HAVING AN OBAMA IN ITS FUTURE---GOOD OR BAD FOR US?
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
B.RAMAN
The world has seen made-in-the-Internet scholars, made-in-the-Internet stock-brokers, made-in-the-Internet lovers and even made-in-the-Internet terrorists.
If Senator Barrack Obama is elected the President of the United States on November 4, the US and the rest of the world will be seeing for the first time a made-in-the-Internet President.
The way his advisers and entourage have effectively used the Internet to make him known to the people, to collect funds for him and to project him as a right-thinking person, who will take the US into a brave new world, will form the theme of many likely best-sellers if he wins the elections, as he seems destined to do.
Large sections of the American people are in a state of guilt----- over having suppressed the Blacks for so many years, over having supported President Bush and his Neo Conservatives in their Iraq adventure under the pretext of removing non-existent weapons of mass destruction, and over so many other perceived wrongs of the Bush Administration.
What better way of ridding themselves of their gnawing sense of guilt than to vote for a candidate, who is an Afro-American and who promises to rid the US of the legacies of the Bush administration. Just by casting their vote for him on November 4, they would in one stroke be able to get rid of all their guilt feelings and start a new life as Americans. So they think. As they stand before the voting machine, it will be their hour of the confessional ---- that they were wrong in having supported Bush.
His advisers and entourage have skillfully exploited the widely prevalent mood of guilt in the US to project him as a transformational figure (to quote Colin Powell) the like of which comes but rarely. Vote for Obama and vote for all that that is good and great in the US.
The liberals---- in the civil society, in the media, among the opinion-makers--- have made Obama seem a cult figure. For them, it will be blasphemous to ask questions about his past, to find out who he really is.
Had a white been the Democratic candidate like Senator John McCain, the Republican candidate, they would not have had the least qualms in researching into his past and in dissecting every inch of him.
How can one do it for a transformational, cult figure? Cult figures have to be accepted as such without questions. How can one do that for a Black, who is on the threshold of history by being the first Black to become the President of the US? To question his past and his credentials would be racist. So the American voters have been told.
Can anyone in the US or in the rest of the world assert that he knows Obama well ---- his past and his present and what he will be in future? Future is the child of the past.
Obama is a mix of two vintages. The old pre-2006 vintage and the new post-2006 one. All his admirers know Obama of the new vintage. How many know Obama of the old vintage?
Very few. There is no desire to find out either.
Obama of the new vintage has nothing but the highest words of praise for India and Indians. He wants to continue with Bush’s policy of promoting a strategic relationship with India.
What about Obama of the old vintage? Cautious and reserved in exuding any warmth for India and the Indians lest his Pakistani friends and constituents misunderstand.
It is said that as a student he had more Pakistani friends than Indians. He felt more comfortable in the company of the Pakistanis than Indians. It was his choice and nobody could grudge it.
It was at the invitation of one of his Pakistani friends that he visited Islamabad, Karachi and Hyderabad (Sind) in the 1980s. Nobody can hold that against him.
As an Indian, one will be but human if one felt troubled that he did not disclose this till he became the Presidential candidate. He disclosed this----as if in passing--- when it was alleged that he did not understand the Islamic world and its divisions. He mentioned his visit to Pakistan to show that he knew about the divisions in Islam, about the Shia-Sunni differences.
Why did he keep mum on his visit to Pakistan till this question was raised? Has he disclosed all the details regarding his Pakistan visit? Was it as innocuous as made out by him----to respond to the invitation of a Pakistani friend or was there something more to it?
One would have expected the US journalists to have gone into this, to have quizzed him on it. But, they didn’t.
As I read about Obama’s visit to Pakistan in the 1980s, I could not help thinking of dozens of things. Of the Afghan jihad against communism. Of the fascination of many Afro-Americans for the jihad. Of the visits of a stream of Afro-Americans to Pakistan to feel the greatness of the jihad. Of their fascination for Abdullah Azzam, who came to Pakistan in the 1980s and started teaching in the International Islamic University in Islamabad. Of the fascination of some Afro-Americans for him. Of the frequent visits of Cat Stevens, the pop singer, to Pakistan and of his fascination for Islam and the on-going jihad. Of his conversion to Islam.
One might think that I am morbid in entertaining such thoughts and questions in my mind. But morbidity is understandable when one has a feeling that one has not been told the whole story, but only a part of it.
It is the right of the Americans to decide who should be their President. It is my right to worry about the implications of their decision for the rest of the world, including India. (29-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
The world has seen made-in-the-Internet scholars, made-in-the-Internet stock-brokers, made-in-the-Internet lovers and even made-in-the-Internet terrorists.
If Senator Barrack Obama is elected the President of the United States on November 4, the US and the rest of the world will be seeing for the first time a made-in-the-Internet President.
The way his advisers and entourage have effectively used the Internet to make him known to the people, to collect funds for him and to project him as a right-thinking person, who will take the US into a brave new world, will form the theme of many likely best-sellers if he wins the elections, as he seems destined to do.
Large sections of the American people are in a state of guilt----- over having suppressed the Blacks for so many years, over having supported President Bush and his Neo Conservatives in their Iraq adventure under the pretext of removing non-existent weapons of mass destruction, and over so many other perceived wrongs of the Bush Administration.
What better way of ridding themselves of their gnawing sense of guilt than to vote for a candidate, who is an Afro-American and who promises to rid the US of the legacies of the Bush administration. Just by casting their vote for him on November 4, they would in one stroke be able to get rid of all their guilt feelings and start a new life as Americans. So they think. As they stand before the voting machine, it will be their hour of the confessional ---- that they were wrong in having supported Bush.
His advisers and entourage have skillfully exploited the widely prevalent mood of guilt in the US to project him as a transformational figure (to quote Colin Powell) the like of which comes but rarely. Vote for Obama and vote for all that that is good and great in the US.
The liberals---- in the civil society, in the media, among the opinion-makers--- have made Obama seem a cult figure. For them, it will be blasphemous to ask questions about his past, to find out who he really is.
Had a white been the Democratic candidate like Senator John McCain, the Republican candidate, they would not have had the least qualms in researching into his past and in dissecting every inch of him.
How can one do it for a transformational, cult figure? Cult figures have to be accepted as such without questions. How can one do that for a Black, who is on the threshold of history by being the first Black to become the President of the US? To question his past and his credentials would be racist. So the American voters have been told.
Can anyone in the US or in the rest of the world assert that he knows Obama well ---- his past and his present and what he will be in future? Future is the child of the past.
Obama is a mix of two vintages. The old pre-2006 vintage and the new post-2006 one. All his admirers know Obama of the new vintage. How many know Obama of the old vintage?
Very few. There is no desire to find out either.
Obama of the new vintage has nothing but the highest words of praise for India and Indians. He wants to continue with Bush’s policy of promoting a strategic relationship with India.
What about Obama of the old vintage? Cautious and reserved in exuding any warmth for India and the Indians lest his Pakistani friends and constituents misunderstand.
It is said that as a student he had more Pakistani friends than Indians. He felt more comfortable in the company of the Pakistanis than Indians. It was his choice and nobody could grudge it.
It was at the invitation of one of his Pakistani friends that he visited Islamabad, Karachi and Hyderabad (Sind) in the 1980s. Nobody can hold that against him.
As an Indian, one will be but human if one felt troubled that he did not disclose this till he became the Presidential candidate. He disclosed this----as if in passing--- when it was alleged that he did not understand the Islamic world and its divisions. He mentioned his visit to Pakistan to show that he knew about the divisions in Islam, about the Shia-Sunni differences.
Why did he keep mum on his visit to Pakistan till this question was raised? Has he disclosed all the details regarding his Pakistan visit? Was it as innocuous as made out by him----to respond to the invitation of a Pakistani friend or was there something more to it?
One would have expected the US journalists to have gone into this, to have quizzed him on it. But, they didn’t.
As I read about Obama’s visit to Pakistan in the 1980s, I could not help thinking of dozens of things. Of the Afghan jihad against communism. Of the fascination of many Afro-Americans for the jihad. Of the visits of a stream of Afro-Americans to Pakistan to feel the greatness of the jihad. Of their fascination for Abdullah Azzam, who came to Pakistan in the 1980s and started teaching in the International Islamic University in Islamabad. Of the fascination of some Afro-Americans for him. Of the frequent visits of Cat Stevens, the pop singer, to Pakistan and of his fascination for Islam and the on-going jihad. Of his conversion to Islam.
One might think that I am morbid in entertaining such thoughts and questions in my mind. But morbidity is understandable when one has a feeling that one has not been told the whole story, but only a part of it.
It is the right of the Americans to decide who should be their President. It is my right to worry about the implications of their decision for the rest of the world, including India. (29-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Swat on the verge of civil war
By: Khurshid Khan
Valley swat has been divided in two administrative units Tehsil swat and Thesil Matta. Both have their separate councils. Matta Tehsil council consists of thirteen Union Councils. Abdula Jabar Khan is its elected Tehsil Nazim while Naib- Nazim Shakirullah khan has been killed in the recent imbroglio in swat. The area is called Bar Swat (Upper swat) in local vernacular. Matta Town is the main trading center as well as the administration headquarter some 22 miles away from Mingawara city. The total population of upper swat is 251368 according to the 1998 censuses. Its total area is about 6832 square kilometers. The population annual growth rate is 3.04 %. Upper swat has mailnly divided into two territories Shamizai and Sibujni Sebat khel on the basis of Wesh (land distribution system,). The inhabitants of Shamizai belong to Yusufzai tribe of Pukhtuns and are lead by Afzal khan. Subjini Sebat khel inhabited by Nazar Khel and Shama khel. Nazar khel are Shinwaries while Shama khel belongs to Tarkalani tribe. Sebujni also has Balol Khel and sena Khel. The people of labat, Gwalerai and above are Sena Khel.
Upper Swat consists of two main valleys, Sakhra and Rodingar. Arnwai stream irrigates Rodingar valley up to Totkai While Bawrai stream irrigates Sakhra valley up to Bagderai. Shawarai stream irrigates the narrow valley of Shawar. This is the unfortunate and notorious valley where Gatt and Pewchar villages are situated. The national and international media has brought these areas into the spotlight in the recent time.
These valleys are well known for their natural beauty, fertile soil and agricultural produce. Fruit orchards are the main cash crop of the valleys. The famous Swat Apples are cultivated and produced here. The natural forests of Pines and Deodars and medicinal plants are also the income generation sources. The inhabitants of the area are considered rich and prosper people in swat. They stick to the strict code of Pukhtunwali. But unfortunately the whole swat in general and upper swat in particular is in the venomous tentacles of terror since ast year. The significant and influential elders of the area have been murdered, migrated or detained in their houses and hujras. The houses of many influential are incinerated and looted.
The important strategic points over the heights across the valley are under the control of the security forces while the militants control the villages and hamlets in the outskirts of proper Matta Town. Explosions, kidnappings and murders have become day to day affairs in the area which are augmented by infinite and endless curfews. Most of the fruits and vegetables are wasted away due to non- accessibility to the main markets.
Last Sunday, October 26, 2008, the miserable people of the area encountered still another terrible situation. The local elders of Biha, Gwalerai and Bartanra union councils formed a jirga congregated in the main Mosque of Gwalerai. The jirga was debating on the issue of deteriorating law and order situation, security forces’ indiscriminate shellings and air strikes and the consequent public casualties, injuries and private property’s destruction. The main jirga formed a delegation and sent it to the official of the security forces for negotiation over the alarming deteriorating condition of the area. It is reported that the members of the delegation were ambushed when they were returning, resulting in killing of 14 people on the spot. It is also said that the waiting jirga members in the mosque were also attacked killing several elders and about 70 were abducted. Several of the abducted elders were butchered ruthlessly and their bodies were thrown in the fields. The local people said that most of the dwellers of the area remained busy in burying the deceased on Monday. Most of the renowned elders of these three union councils were slaughtered in this onslaught. In one of the village, Gwalerai, six members of the same family were killed including four brothers. One of the local journalists says “thirty funerals at a time in the area presented the spectacles of dooms day. This incident has wiped out the bitter memories of Bartanra air strikes”
This situation has brought both Taliban and public face to face; the militants are in the “do or die” situation. The concept of revenge is so deep rooted in the Pukhtun society that it is next to impossible to remove this code from this society. This volatile situation has given rise to two speculations; people in the same household will raise guns in favour or against militants and the chances of the formation of communal warriors or qaumi lakhkar are fading. If this war spreads out to each household, clan and village, the destruction and annihilation will engender situation of hair raising.
This civil war must be stopped immediately which can be accomplished through proper co-ordination among local, district and provincial authorities. A peace treaty between the militant and the local people and the withdrawal of militants from these areas can halt the disastrous civil war.
Another alarming development in the area is the mysterious appearance of a new and significant figure, Pir Samiullah, of Tangar village of the area. He has his own circle of followers and admirers which spreads out to considerable area. In addition to this, the Gujar community also supports him due to ethnic affiliation. Local people said that Pir Samiullah is the only potential rival of militant leader Fazlullah in the area. A local Daily reported that security forces are taking extraordinary interest in this new development. The daily also reported the landing of military helicopters in Pir Samiullah‘s village on Monday.
If a war erupts between Pir Samiullah and militant leader Fazlullah, then the eye opening example of Bara in Khyber Agency should be glanced first .Thus, this war may take the shape of sectarianism which will be another shocking and new development in the history of swat. The alarming development will be the war between the militants and the local people in which the major losers will be the public. Uncountable human lives will be lost and properties damaged as a consequence of this venture.
The elders, representatives of swat and the provincial government who is peace ambassador, should raise to the occasion and stop the impending calamity which has not happened yet.
It is also the responsibility of organizations working for peace, print and electronic media to come forward to make the ground work for the peace deal. If this movement does not commence now, then perhaps, it will not be needed
Talibanization Or Balkanization? What Awaits Pakistan First?
15.10.2008
By Safdar Jafri
14 October, 2008
Countercurrents.org
Balkanization of Pakistan has been a topic of writings and political discussions for long. Reason: ever present and growing separatist tendencies in three of country's four provinces. But recently, another rather more frightening future has been predicted for Pakistan by some experts; Talibanization along the lines of what existed in pre-9/11 days in Afghanistan. Reason: phenomenal growth of militancy inside Pakistan backed by either Pakistan's army establishment and/or the US. Pakistan may be behind this because it may still view Afghanistan as strategically too important to have a pro-Indian government there, particularly if the US packs up and leaves the war against terrorism campaing in the middle due to its growing domestic crisis.
US may be backing the militants for still more sinister reasons; devising a huge, ideologically destructive enemy that kills more of its own people than its claimed enemies (which is exactly what Al Qaida and Taliban seem to be doing if you simply count the casualties in Afghanistan, Iraq and more recently in Pakistan) and thereby helps the US achieve two key objectives:
1. Weaken the governments in the region by causing bloodshed and chaos (we are are already seeing that in action) and in the process also give the US forces to continue their stay as well as decimate the population (people will either die or flee as in Afghanistan and Iraq) which will make a takeover by the US smooth and easy for subsequent exploitation of both the resources (oil, gas and what not !) . By the same token, it will also give the US the control of strategic geographic locations. Interesting to note here that US has not taken a penny from the oil revenues of Iraq so far but as the country gets empty of humans and US seeks to overcome its growing economic crisis, a very good reason will automatically present itself that war cost is taken out of Iraq's own budget. We can already hear talk of such a proposal in the media.
2. Contain both India and China. First, remember there are huge Muslim populations in both India and China. Some of them with deep separatist tendencies that simply require a bit of stoking an faning and proper secret backing such as Kashmir in India and XinXiang province in China. Interesting, Pakistan has borders with both these troubled regions of US's two greatest economic rivals and that's partly the reason that Pakistan will be crucial if such a plan is on the anvil for the US authorities. We can already find stuff in the news of growing militant terrorist attacks inside the Indian heartland as well as in Kashmir and also growing separatist activites in XinXiang province of China which are all clearly drawing support from somewhere big.
The question therefore we should be asking in the above background is: will Pakistan balkanize first or will it be talibanized first and then balkanized ? Given the above assumptions are true (and from looking at the facts pointed out above they are quite plausible), then talibanization will come first. If the US is playing a double game with Pakistan (btw, we are not ruling out that Pakistan may be doing the same in its own game plan), then whatever the government of Pakistan does will benefit the US long term plan. If it strikes the militants that are hiding in its northern terrority along the border with Afghanistan, then it will alienate and weaken its public support inside the country where a people are increasingly accusing it of serving the US interests. US on the other hand will increase its assumed covert support of the Islamic militants in the area which will create even more bloodshed and chaos in the country. If Pakistan withdraws from its sworn alliance with the US, then the talibanization will simply get on the fast track. The militants will continue to receive the high tech weaponry and support from the US and soon they will be walking over Islamabad and take over the control.
In my reading and assessment of the situation, Pakistan will first experience denuclearization in the wake of growing insecurity in the country followed by talibanization which will be followed by large scale bloodshed, chaos and disappearance of central governance in exactly the same fashion as it happened in Afghanistan, which is also an informal kind of balkanization as there will be no functioning government in the country. The formal balkanization will take place afterwards as the US takes control of various strategic regions such as Baluchistan in the south west (a resource-rich vast province bordering Iran and also sitting at the edge of Persian Gulf; Baluchistan and its political and strategic significance will be discussed in a later article) and Kashmir plus northern areas of Pakistan that have borders with India and China as well as Afghanistan. Capture of Baluchistan will help the US control the oil and gas supply to India for which India is becoming increasingly restless (e.g. the proposed gas pipeline from Iran to India has to pass through Baluchistan). Capture of Kashmir will help the US to tame India and subsequently, even break it, if the militants and separatist in Kashmir are handled well.
Similarly, capture of the northern areas bordering China will help the US to literally be at the doorstep of its biggest economic rival and create both chaos by covertly supporting the separatists and militants in XinXiang province as well as rule out any possibility of China ever having direct access to the warm waters of the Gulf and Middle Eastern markets which it may have if Pakistan continues to provide it access to its new Gawadar port in Baluchistan province. Many have argued that Benazir was actually assasinated through a US consipracy (most probably with assistance from Pakistan intelligence agencies and the army) because it suspected that she was likely to betray the US after coming to power and giving China a thoroughfare through Pakistan landscape to Persian Gulf to reach the middle eastern markets. Some experts have also that this precisely was the fear from the ex-President and General Pervez Musharaf who was also eliminated with a plan and with an excuse that he failed to act against the growing terrorism effectively or was playing a double game with the US.
The fact that in the next few years the map of West Asia is quite likely to change and that Pakistan will be at the forefront in this upcoming change makes the entire game of politics very interesting for the analysts. There will be growing choas, bloodshed, breakaway regions, militancy and above all, most certainly greater US presence in the region in the days to come.
As the chaos and insecurity grows in Pakistan, the above conspiracy theory if you may call it is proving to be increasingly justified and true. Only a dramatic turn in events such as a concerted radical anti-militancy action by Pakistan government with the support of the US can avert a catastrophic downward spiral for the country.
http://www.countercurrents.org/jafri141008.htm
By Safdar Jafri
14 October, 2008
Countercurrents.org
Balkanization of Pakistan has been a topic of writings and political discussions for long. Reason: ever present and growing separatist tendencies in three of country's four provinces. But recently, another rather more frightening future has been predicted for Pakistan by some experts; Talibanization along the lines of what existed in pre-9/11 days in Afghanistan. Reason: phenomenal growth of militancy inside Pakistan backed by either Pakistan's army establishment and/or the US. Pakistan may be behind this because it may still view Afghanistan as strategically too important to have a pro-Indian government there, particularly if the US packs up and leaves the war against terrorism campaing in the middle due to its growing domestic crisis.
US may be backing the militants for still more sinister reasons; devising a huge, ideologically destructive enemy that kills more of its own people than its claimed enemies (which is exactly what Al Qaida and Taliban seem to be doing if you simply count the casualties in Afghanistan, Iraq and more recently in Pakistan) and thereby helps the US achieve two key objectives:
1. Weaken the governments in the region by causing bloodshed and chaos (we are are already seeing that in action) and in the process also give the US forces to continue their stay as well as decimate the population (people will either die or flee as in Afghanistan and Iraq) which will make a takeover by the US smooth and easy for subsequent exploitation of both the resources (oil, gas and what not !) . By the same token, it will also give the US the control of strategic geographic locations. Interesting to note here that US has not taken a penny from the oil revenues of Iraq so far but as the country gets empty of humans and US seeks to overcome its growing economic crisis, a very good reason will automatically present itself that war cost is taken out of Iraq's own budget. We can already hear talk of such a proposal in the media.
2. Contain both India and China. First, remember there are huge Muslim populations in both India and China. Some of them with deep separatist tendencies that simply require a bit of stoking an faning and proper secret backing such as Kashmir in India and XinXiang province in China. Interesting, Pakistan has borders with both these troubled regions of US's two greatest economic rivals and that's partly the reason that Pakistan will be crucial if such a plan is on the anvil for the US authorities. We can already find stuff in the news of growing militant terrorist attacks inside the Indian heartland as well as in Kashmir and also growing separatist activites in XinXiang province of China which are all clearly drawing support from somewhere big.
The question therefore we should be asking in the above background is: will Pakistan balkanize first or will it be talibanized first and then balkanized ? Given the above assumptions are true (and from looking at the facts pointed out above they are quite plausible), then talibanization will come first. If the US is playing a double game with Pakistan (btw, we are not ruling out that Pakistan may be doing the same in its own game plan), then whatever the government of Pakistan does will benefit the US long term plan. If it strikes the militants that are hiding in its northern terrority along the border with Afghanistan, then it will alienate and weaken its public support inside the country where a people are increasingly accusing it of serving the US interests. US on the other hand will increase its assumed covert support of the Islamic militants in the area which will create even more bloodshed and chaos in the country. If Pakistan withdraws from its sworn alliance with the US, then the talibanization will simply get on the fast track. The militants will continue to receive the high tech weaponry and support from the US and soon they will be walking over Islamabad and take over the control.
In my reading and assessment of the situation, Pakistan will first experience denuclearization in the wake of growing insecurity in the country followed by talibanization which will be followed by large scale bloodshed, chaos and disappearance of central governance in exactly the same fashion as it happened in Afghanistan, which is also an informal kind of balkanization as there will be no functioning government in the country. The formal balkanization will take place afterwards as the US takes control of various strategic regions such as Baluchistan in the south west (a resource-rich vast province bordering Iran and also sitting at the edge of Persian Gulf; Baluchistan and its political and strategic significance will be discussed in a later article) and Kashmir plus northern areas of Pakistan that have borders with India and China as well as Afghanistan. Capture of Baluchistan will help the US control the oil and gas supply to India for which India is becoming increasingly restless (e.g. the proposed gas pipeline from Iran to India has to pass through Baluchistan). Capture of Kashmir will help the US to tame India and subsequently, even break it, if the militants and separatist in Kashmir are handled well.
Similarly, capture of the northern areas bordering China will help the US to literally be at the doorstep of its biggest economic rival and create both chaos by covertly supporting the separatists and militants in XinXiang province as well as rule out any possibility of China ever having direct access to the warm waters of the Gulf and Middle Eastern markets which it may have if Pakistan continues to provide it access to its new Gawadar port in Baluchistan province. Many have argued that Benazir was actually assasinated through a US consipracy (most probably with assistance from Pakistan intelligence agencies and the army) because it suspected that she was likely to betray the US after coming to power and giving China a thoroughfare through Pakistan landscape to Persian Gulf to reach the middle eastern markets. Some experts have also that this precisely was the fear from the ex-President and General Pervez Musharaf who was also eliminated with a plan and with an excuse that he failed to act against the growing terrorism effectively or was playing a double game with the US.
The fact that in the next few years the map of West Asia is quite likely to change and that Pakistan will be at the forefront in this upcoming change makes the entire game of politics very interesting for the analysts. There will be growing choas, bloodshed, breakaway regions, militancy and above all, most certainly greater US presence in the region in the days to come.
As the chaos and insecurity grows in Pakistan, the above conspiracy theory if you may call it is proving to be increasingly justified and true. Only a dramatic turn in events such as a concerted radical anti-militancy action by Pakistan government with the support of the US can avert a catastrophic downward spiral for the country.
http://www.countercurrents.org/jafri141008.htm
October 28, 2008
PAK ISLAMIC ORGANISATIONS ENDORSE OBAMA, PRO-AL QAEDA ARAB GROUPS BACK McCAIN
B.RAMAN
Despite the strong statements made by Senator Barrack Obama, the Democratic Presidential candidate, expressing his determination to go after Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda leaders even to the extent of sending American troops into Pakistani territory if precise intelligence on the location of OBL is available, jihadi and other fundamentalist organisations in Pakistan believe it would be better for the members of the Pakistani diaspora in the US to vote for Obama. They feel that he will make a break from what they regard as the anti-Muslim policies followed by the Bush Administration. They apprehend that if Senator McCain wins he will follow the Bush policies without any major change.
2. The Shias of Pakistan too want the members of their sect in the US to vote for Obama since his attitude towards Iran is seen by them as less hostile than that of Bush and McCain.
3. In a despatch from Washington published by the "Daily Times" of Lahore on October 28,2008, Khalid Hasan, its Washington Correspondent, reported as follows: " About 90 per cent of American Muslims are expected to vote for Barack Obama on November 4, according to a key Muslim community leader, who wished to remain anonymous since any open or overt expression of support from a Muslim group for Obama is likely to hurt rather than help his bid for the White House. Leading Muslim organisations and groups have been requested by Obama’s people not to declare their support to the Democratic candidate openly as they fear it will be used to decry the Senator as a ‘crypto Muslim’ or ‘jihahidi manqué,’ so much paranoia about Islam and Muslims has been spread by neocon supporters of John McCain and certain radical, ultra conservative church and evangelical groups. According to Agha Saeed of the American Muslim Taskforce on Universal Rights and Elections, “Our goal is to maximise Muslim voter turnout, support candidates who support civil liberties, world peace, universal healthcare, better education, a fair immigration policy and social justice. Even if better candidates were to win on November 4, it will take a long and determined effort to help restore America’s promise, ideals and principles.” The American Muslim Taskforce is planning to release a Muslim-American voter survey in the next few days. "
4. Pro-Al Qaeda Arab elements, however, believe that McCain's victory would be better in the over-all interest of the global jihad against the so-called Crusaders. They are calculating that by persisting with the policies of the Bush administration he could aggravate the economic mess in the US and other Western countries and this would help the cause of the global jihad against the so-called crusaders. They are describing the economic difficulties of the US as a punishment meted out by Allah in reprisal for the US actions in Iraq and Afghanistan and project the crisis in the Wall Street and other stock markets of the West as Allah's third front to help the Muslims. It remains to be seen what position, if any, Al Qaeda officially takes.(28-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai,. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Despite the strong statements made by Senator Barrack Obama, the Democratic Presidential candidate, expressing his determination to go after Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda leaders even to the extent of sending American troops into Pakistani territory if precise intelligence on the location of OBL is available, jihadi and other fundamentalist organisations in Pakistan believe it would be better for the members of the Pakistani diaspora in the US to vote for Obama. They feel that he will make a break from what they regard as the anti-Muslim policies followed by the Bush Administration. They apprehend that if Senator McCain wins he will follow the Bush policies without any major change.
2. The Shias of Pakistan too want the members of their sect in the US to vote for Obama since his attitude towards Iran is seen by them as less hostile than that of Bush and McCain.
3. In a despatch from Washington published by the "Daily Times" of Lahore on October 28,2008, Khalid Hasan, its Washington Correspondent, reported as follows: " About 90 per cent of American Muslims are expected to vote for Barack Obama on November 4, according to a key Muslim community leader, who wished to remain anonymous since any open or overt expression of support from a Muslim group for Obama is likely to hurt rather than help his bid for the White House. Leading Muslim organisations and groups have been requested by Obama’s people not to declare their support to the Democratic candidate openly as they fear it will be used to decry the Senator as a ‘crypto Muslim’ or ‘jihahidi manqué,’ so much paranoia about Islam and Muslims has been spread by neocon supporters of John McCain and certain radical, ultra conservative church and evangelical groups. According to Agha Saeed of the American Muslim Taskforce on Universal Rights and Elections, “Our goal is to maximise Muslim voter turnout, support candidates who support civil liberties, world peace, universal healthcare, better education, a fair immigration policy and social justice. Even if better candidates were to win on November 4, it will take a long and determined effort to help restore America’s promise, ideals and principles.” The American Muslim Taskforce is planning to release a Muslim-American voter survey in the next few days. "
4. Pro-Al Qaeda Arab elements, however, believe that McCain's victory would be better in the over-all interest of the global jihad against the so-called Crusaders. They are calculating that by persisting with the policies of the Bush administration he could aggravate the economic mess in the US and other Western countries and this would help the cause of the global jihad against the so-called crusaders. They are describing the economic difficulties of the US as a punishment meted out by Allah in reprisal for the US actions in Iraq and Afghanistan and project the crisis in the Wall Street and other stock markets of the West as Allah's third front to help the Muslims. It remains to be seen what position, if any, Al Qaeda officially takes.(28-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai,. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
US PREDATOR STRIKES IN FATA STEPPED UP
B.RAMAN
"The reported US assurances to respect Pakistani sovereignty in its territory did not apply to air strikes, which could continue as before. In fact, the Pakistan Army itself had agreed to these air strikes when Musharraf was the President and the COAS. Kayani was a party to that decision and he could not now object to such air strikes unless the Army wanted the permission for air strikes accorded by Musharraf to be withdrawn. However, Musharraf had consistently refused to agree to unilateral ground strikes by the US special forces. The present Government cannot give the impression that it had gone even further than Musharraf in its co-operation with the US forces in their operations against Al Qaeda and the Taliban ."---- from my article of September 20,2008, titled "US STRIKES IN FATA: Change In Continuity" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers29/paper2851.html
--------------------------------------------------------
The "New York Times" reported on its web site on October 26,2008, as follows: The United States is refraining from using its special forces on the Pakistani territory following a raid nearly two months ago that resulted in civilian casualties and vehement protests from Islamabad. Following the attack, National Security Adviser Mahmud Ali Durrani made an unannounced visit to Washington and expressed his country’s anger in person to top White House officials, including National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley.But while the ground raids have stopped, attacks by remotely-piloted Predator aircraft, which are operated by the Central Intelligence Agency, have increased sharply in the past three months.There were at least 18 Predator strikes since the beginning of August, some deep inside the tribal areas, as compared with the five strikes during the first seven months of 2008.
2.Writing in the "News" of Pakistan (October 28,2008), Amir Mir, the well- informed Pakistani journalist, has cited a report of the Ministry of the Interior of the Government of Pakistan as indicating that the US forces based in Afghanistan carried out 32 military strikes in Pakistani territory since the beginning of 2008 as against a combined total of 10 during 2006 and 2007.These included air strikes by unmanned Predator aircraft, attacks by missiles fired from US positions in Afghan territory and ground operations. The Interior Ministry report cited by him does not give the break-up figures. If the NY Times estimate of 23 Predator strikes since the beginning of this year is taken as correct, there were nine other operations , which did not involve the Predator aircraft. Earlier, the Pakistani authorities had reported only one helicopter-borne ground attack on a suspected Al Qaeda hide-out by the US in South Waziristan on September 3,2008. If one excludes this, there would appear to have been eight cross-border missile strikes.
3. The tabulation of the Interior Ministry, as disclosed by Amir Mir, gives the following other interesting details:
355 persons were killed in these 32 US operations directed at targets in the Pakistani territory. Of these 301 were innocent civilians, 36 were alleged members of Al Qaeda and the Taliban and 18 were members of the Pakistani security forces.
Only eight of the 32 strikes were based on human intelligence, which proved to be correct. Among these eight strikes was one in which Abu Laith al-Libi, projected by the US as an important Al Qaeda operative, was killed. The remaining 24 strikes were based on human intelligence, which proved to be incorrect.
16 of the 32 US attacks were carried out between January 1 and August 31, 2008. The remaining 16 strikes were carried out between September 3 and October 26, 2008.
There were nine aerial strikes between September 3 and September 25, 2008 killing 57 people on September 3, 4, 5, 8, 12, 15, 17, 22 and 27.
Between October 1 and October 26 , seven cross-border attacks were carried out, killing at least 42 people---- mostly women and children ---- on October 1, 3, 9, 11, 16, 23 and 26.
4. After every strike, Pakistani leaders, including Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani, and spokesmen have been criticising the US for violating Pakistani territory and calling upon it to respect its sovereignty. Their statements and warnings have not had any effect on the US forces, which continue to indulge in Predator and cross-border missile strikes whenever they received intelligence about the suspected location of terrorist hide-outs. There seems to be an informal understanding between the two Governments on the following lines: " I will keep criticising and warning you.You keep doing whatever you have to against the suspected terrorist hide-outs, provided you do not undertake strikes involving ground troops." The intensification of Predator strikes has coincided with the forthcoming US Presidential elections.
5. Despite public criticism of the close counter-terrorism co-operation with the US initiated by Pervez Musharraf, the newly- elected Government, which took office on March 18,2008, has been continuing the policies initiated under Musharraf. Apart from turning a blind eye and a deaf ear to the US air and missile strikes in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) while pretending to condemn them, the Government has also been going ahead with the implementation of proposals for counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency training of officers of the Special Services Group (SSG) of the Army and the Frontier Corps by mixed teams of US and British officers. These training projects were initiated under Musharraf.
6. The text of a report carried by the "Daily Times" of Pakistan on October 19,2008, on US-aided counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency projects is attached.(29-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd),Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
FATA is the epicentre of the global war on terrorism, according to a US security assistance officer helping Pakistan improve both equipment and training in order to fight more effectively against extremist militants.
The observation is quoted in an assessment by the Centre for Naval Analysis (CAN) of US-funded projects in Pakistan under the rubric 1206. The focus of 1206 projects in Pakistan has been on three distinct, but inter-related sets of capabilities. The goal is to rapidly increase Pakistan’s capacity to confront terrorists operating in FATA. Specifically, the programme seeks to provide the Pakistani special operation forces the capability to conduct airborne night strike operations against terrorists in the FATA. FY06 1206 projects in Pakistan have focused on increasing the capacity and capability of the Pakistani Army’s rotary wing aviation units as well as improving the equipment and training available to the Pakistani Army’s Special Services Group (SSG). Pakistan is also to be enabled to deal with terrorist attacks in settled areas and urban centres.
Superior knowledge: The Pakistani forces, CAN said, engaged in combat with enemies in the FATA often find that their adversary has superior knowledge of the territory and is able to use this knowledge to provide tactical advantages. With that advantage, the adversary reportedly takes advantage of the night to conduct surveillance, reinforcement, withdrawal and even attacks against Pakistani forces. Between 2003 and 2008, the SSG conducted 122 separate counter terrorist operations in the FATA and the NWFP. While SSG operations resulted in 178 terrorist dead and 211 captured, the SSG suffered 42 killed and 90 wounded. Additionally, the SSG suffered 16 killed and 29 injured in a terrorist attack at the Tarbela SSG base.
After 1206 funding authorisation was passed, Pakistan requested support for spare parts, aviation body armour, night vision goggles (NVGs), a night targeting system for Cobra helicopters, and limited visibility training for pilots. While much of the 1206-funded equipment for Pakistan in financial year (FY) 2007 has arrived in Qatar, home of US Central Command’s Special Operations Component Command, it has not been distributed to the SSG. Instead, distribution of the equipment to Pakistani units is being paired with specialised training by US special operation forces under the Joint Combined Exchange Training. The goal for the FY07 1206 programme is to rapidly develop the capability of the SSG to conduct vertical insertion nighttime company-sized attack helicopter supported raids against terrorist targets in the FATA.
According to Pakistani officers the training and operational profile of the forces involved has changed as a result of the arrival of new equipment. According to a senior US officer, the number of combat operations by Pakistani military forces against terrorists has increased dramatically since the Red Mosque siege in July 2007. This increased operational tempo has compounded the strain on the Pakistani Army’s capabilities, especially aviation.
According to the commander of the SSG special operations task force, there is both an operational and psychological impact of having Cobra helicopters available to support special operations forces engaged with terrorists in NWFP and FATA. The Cobras also provide direct strike capabilities against enemy targets. According to the Pakistani director of Military Operations, the Cobra is the mainstay of their missions in the FATA. It protects logistics, it provides reconnaissance, and it allows raids on emergent targets. The FATA is very difficult terrain to operate in and the only fire support available to ground units comes from mid-range towed artillery and helicopters. Surveillance and reconnaissance are difficult, but helicopters provide the combined capabilities of surveillance, quick reaction and fire support. According to a former Pakistani company commander, when the enemy hears Cobras coming, they disappear. Actual casualties inflicted on the enemy by the helicopters are less important than the deterrent effect of having them nearby to support ground forces.
"The reported US assurances to respect Pakistani sovereignty in its territory did not apply to air strikes, which could continue as before. In fact, the Pakistan Army itself had agreed to these air strikes when Musharraf was the President and the COAS. Kayani was a party to that decision and he could not now object to such air strikes unless the Army wanted the permission for air strikes accorded by Musharraf to be withdrawn. However, Musharraf had consistently refused to agree to unilateral ground strikes by the US special forces. The present Government cannot give the impression that it had gone even further than Musharraf in its co-operation with the US forces in their operations against Al Qaeda and the Taliban ."---- from my article of September 20,2008, titled "US STRIKES IN FATA: Change In Continuity" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers29/paper2851.html
--------------------------------------------------------
The "New York Times" reported on its web site on October 26,2008, as follows: The United States is refraining from using its special forces on the Pakistani territory following a raid nearly two months ago that resulted in civilian casualties and vehement protests from Islamabad. Following the attack, National Security Adviser Mahmud Ali Durrani made an unannounced visit to Washington and expressed his country’s anger in person to top White House officials, including National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley.But while the ground raids have stopped, attacks by remotely-piloted Predator aircraft, which are operated by the Central Intelligence Agency, have increased sharply in the past three months.There were at least 18 Predator strikes since the beginning of August, some deep inside the tribal areas, as compared with the five strikes during the first seven months of 2008.
2.Writing in the "News" of Pakistan (October 28,2008), Amir Mir, the well- informed Pakistani journalist, has cited a report of the Ministry of the Interior of the Government of Pakistan as indicating that the US forces based in Afghanistan carried out 32 military strikes in Pakistani territory since the beginning of 2008 as against a combined total of 10 during 2006 and 2007.These included air strikes by unmanned Predator aircraft, attacks by missiles fired from US positions in Afghan territory and ground operations. The Interior Ministry report cited by him does not give the break-up figures. If the NY Times estimate of 23 Predator strikes since the beginning of this year is taken as correct, there were nine other operations , which did not involve the Predator aircraft. Earlier, the Pakistani authorities had reported only one helicopter-borne ground attack on a suspected Al Qaeda hide-out by the US in South Waziristan on September 3,2008. If one excludes this, there would appear to have been eight cross-border missile strikes.
3. The tabulation of the Interior Ministry, as disclosed by Amir Mir, gives the following other interesting details:
355 persons were killed in these 32 US operations directed at targets in the Pakistani territory. Of these 301 were innocent civilians, 36 were alleged members of Al Qaeda and the Taliban and 18 were members of the Pakistani security forces.
Only eight of the 32 strikes were based on human intelligence, which proved to be correct. Among these eight strikes was one in which Abu Laith al-Libi, projected by the US as an important Al Qaeda operative, was killed. The remaining 24 strikes were based on human intelligence, which proved to be incorrect.
16 of the 32 US attacks were carried out between January 1 and August 31, 2008. The remaining 16 strikes were carried out between September 3 and October 26, 2008.
There were nine aerial strikes between September 3 and September 25, 2008 killing 57 people on September 3, 4, 5, 8, 12, 15, 17, 22 and 27.
Between October 1 and October 26 , seven cross-border attacks were carried out, killing at least 42 people---- mostly women and children ---- on October 1, 3, 9, 11, 16, 23 and 26.
4. After every strike, Pakistani leaders, including Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani, and spokesmen have been criticising the US for violating Pakistani territory and calling upon it to respect its sovereignty. Their statements and warnings have not had any effect on the US forces, which continue to indulge in Predator and cross-border missile strikes whenever they received intelligence about the suspected location of terrorist hide-outs. There seems to be an informal understanding between the two Governments on the following lines: " I will keep criticising and warning you.You keep doing whatever you have to against the suspected terrorist hide-outs, provided you do not undertake strikes involving ground troops." The intensification of Predator strikes has coincided with the forthcoming US Presidential elections.
5. Despite public criticism of the close counter-terrorism co-operation with the US initiated by Pervez Musharraf, the newly- elected Government, which took office on March 18,2008, has been continuing the policies initiated under Musharraf. Apart from turning a blind eye and a deaf ear to the US air and missile strikes in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) while pretending to condemn them, the Government has also been going ahead with the implementation of proposals for counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency training of officers of the Special Services Group (SSG) of the Army and the Frontier Corps by mixed teams of US and British officers. These training projects were initiated under Musharraf.
6. The text of a report carried by the "Daily Times" of Pakistan on October 19,2008, on US-aided counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency projects is attached.(29-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd),Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
FATA is the epicentre of the global war on terrorism, according to a US security assistance officer helping Pakistan improve both equipment and training in order to fight more effectively against extremist militants.
The observation is quoted in an assessment by the Centre for Naval Analysis (CAN) of US-funded projects in Pakistan under the rubric 1206. The focus of 1206 projects in Pakistan has been on three distinct, but inter-related sets of capabilities. The goal is to rapidly increase Pakistan’s capacity to confront terrorists operating in FATA. Specifically, the programme seeks to provide the Pakistani special operation forces the capability to conduct airborne night strike operations against terrorists in the FATA. FY06 1206 projects in Pakistan have focused on increasing the capacity and capability of the Pakistani Army’s rotary wing aviation units as well as improving the equipment and training available to the Pakistani Army’s Special Services Group (SSG). Pakistan is also to be enabled to deal with terrorist attacks in settled areas and urban centres.
Superior knowledge: The Pakistani forces, CAN said, engaged in combat with enemies in the FATA often find that their adversary has superior knowledge of the territory and is able to use this knowledge to provide tactical advantages. With that advantage, the adversary reportedly takes advantage of the night to conduct surveillance, reinforcement, withdrawal and even attacks against Pakistani forces. Between 2003 and 2008, the SSG conducted 122 separate counter terrorist operations in the FATA and the NWFP. While SSG operations resulted in 178 terrorist dead and 211 captured, the SSG suffered 42 killed and 90 wounded. Additionally, the SSG suffered 16 killed and 29 injured in a terrorist attack at the Tarbela SSG base.
After 1206 funding authorisation was passed, Pakistan requested support for spare parts, aviation body armour, night vision goggles (NVGs), a night targeting system for Cobra helicopters, and limited visibility training for pilots. While much of the 1206-funded equipment for Pakistan in financial year (FY) 2007 has arrived in Qatar, home of US Central Command’s Special Operations Component Command, it has not been distributed to the SSG. Instead, distribution of the equipment to Pakistani units is being paired with specialised training by US special operation forces under the Joint Combined Exchange Training. The goal for the FY07 1206 programme is to rapidly develop the capability of the SSG to conduct vertical insertion nighttime company-sized attack helicopter supported raids against terrorist targets in the FATA.
According to Pakistani officers the training and operational profile of the forces involved has changed as a result of the arrival of new equipment. According to a senior US officer, the number of combat operations by Pakistani military forces against terrorists has increased dramatically since the Red Mosque siege in July 2007. This increased operational tempo has compounded the strain on the Pakistani Army’s capabilities, especially aviation.
According to the commander of the SSG special operations task force, there is both an operational and psychological impact of having Cobra helicopters available to support special operations forces engaged with terrorists in NWFP and FATA. The Cobras also provide direct strike capabilities against enemy targets. According to the Pakistani director of Military Operations, the Cobra is the mainstay of their missions in the FATA. It protects logistics, it provides reconnaissance, and it allows raids on emergent targets. The FATA is very difficult terrain to operate in and the only fire support available to ground units comes from mid-range towed artillery and helicopters. Surveillance and reconnaissance are difficult, but helicopters provide the combined capabilities of surveillance, quick reaction and fire support. According to a former Pakistani company commander, when the enemy hears Cobras coming, they disappear. Actual casualties inflicted on the enemy by the helicopters are less important than the deterrent effect of having them nearby to support ground forces.
INDIA : Mood of the nation
http://offstumped.nationalinterest.in/2008/10/25/mood-of-the-nation/
Offstumped wishes all its reader a Happy Deepavali with these musings.
The nation is less than six months away from the next general election. If the first four decades after Independence were marked by the absolute domination of one family in presiding over the nation’s affairs the last 2 decades saw the beginning of a more level playing political field. After some political turmoil and short lived national governments the nation has finally seen two back to back full term premierships from Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh.
Perhaps it can be safely said that political stability is the only thing Vajpayee and Manmohan regimes had in common. It is useful to contrast the mood of the nation in the last 6 months of the Vajpayee regime with the Manmohan regime.
For the purpose of this exercise Offstumped examined the editorial pages of The Hindu between November of 2003 and March of 2004 with the editorial pages in the last 30 days.
It is striking that period between Nov 2003 and March 2004 was one of relative political calm across the nation. As latest as March 2004 the Vajpayee regime was firmly focused on Governance with initiatives like revamping the National Security Council to Urban reforms. There was some concern on lack of job growth but nothing of alarming proportions.
If optimistic editorials on the economy spelled the mood, here is what Offstumped found striking over a two month period between Feb and March 2004 after the Lok Sabha was dissolved Offstumped did not see a single divisive issue dominate the public debate to make its way to the editorial pages. In fact the majority of the editorials in The Hindu were on the state of the economy or foreign affairs.
Neither Divisive Identity Politics, nor Terrorism nor Caste or Class conflicts find any mention in the public debate during that period with the Gujarat riots of 2002 a faint and distant echo.
It is also striking that Communal Socialist rhetoric by the usual suspects that is so common these days makes no appearance during that entire period. The most dominant topics - Kashmir, peace talks with Pakistan, the economy and the U.S. elections.
Now contrast this with how the mood of the nation has soured over the past 5 years with the Manmohan Singh Sonia Gandhi duo presiding over the nation’s affairs.
From North to South and East to West if there is one sentiment in common it is the manne in which social conflicts have been allowed to fester and dominate the public debate. The legacy of the Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi duo is not just the utter mismanagement of the economy but a litany of conflicts that have driven deep fissures into the social fabric in areas where none existed just 4 years back.
We went from a period of successful elections in Kashmir to deep conflict over Jammu, from a period where the wounds from Gujarat Riots were forgotten to a period where no debate would begin without invoking the riots, from a period where class entitlements were given the short shrift as the nation looked forward to a high performing economy to a period where the economy is no longer managed and entitlements have become the political mantra of the day.
If Terrorism was not even a footnote in the period leading up to the last election we are now faced with not just Terrorism becoming the most dominant issue of the day but with an obscenely vulgar public debate that will view everything only from the prism of vote bank politics.
How pray did the Mood of the Nation sour from one of Optimism fuelled by limitless possibilities to one of bitterness and myopic politics ?
In the answer to that friends lies the criminal irresponsibility of the Congress Party on two counts
- the first was in the foisting on this nation a political arrangement first with the Communists and then with the Samajwadi Party that thrived on Social Conflicts from communal issues in Uttar Pradesh to caste and class issues across the country
- the second was in the foisting on this nation another political arrangement of “Power without Accountability” that saw an electile dysfunctional bureaucrat in Manmohan Singh pushing the Communal Socialist agenda of a political leader in Sonia Gandhi who sees herself as being above any kind of public scrutiny.
It was not without reason that Offstumped described the politics of the Congress divisive. Premised on “Progresive Liberalism” that thrives on “victimhood” and “guilt” the evidence is incontrovertible that the Congress having inherited a nation bereft of conflict has damaged its fabric irreversibly with its Communal Socialist agenda.
On the auspicious occassion of Diwali Offstumped calls upon all right thinking nationalist Indians to reflect upon this souring of the mood of the nation and give serious thought to defeating this divisive brand of politics rather than fall into its trap for nothing serves the Communal Socialists better than festering conflicts that create new classes of victims while spreading around an all pervasive emotion of guilt.
Offstumped wishes all its reader a Happy Deepavali with these musings.
The nation is less than six months away from the next general election. If the first four decades after Independence were marked by the absolute domination of one family in presiding over the nation’s affairs the last 2 decades saw the beginning of a more level playing political field. After some political turmoil and short lived national governments the nation has finally seen two back to back full term premierships from Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh.
Perhaps it can be safely said that political stability is the only thing Vajpayee and Manmohan regimes had in common. It is useful to contrast the mood of the nation in the last 6 months of the Vajpayee regime with the Manmohan regime.
For the purpose of this exercise Offstumped examined the editorial pages of The Hindu between November of 2003 and March of 2004 with the editorial pages in the last 30 days.
It is striking that period between Nov 2003 and March 2004 was one of relative political calm across the nation. As latest as March 2004 the Vajpayee regime was firmly focused on Governance with initiatives like revamping the National Security Council to Urban reforms. There was some concern on lack of job growth but nothing of alarming proportions.
If optimistic editorials on the economy spelled the mood, here is what Offstumped found striking over a two month period between Feb and March 2004 after the Lok Sabha was dissolved Offstumped did not see a single divisive issue dominate the public debate to make its way to the editorial pages. In fact the majority of the editorials in The Hindu were on the state of the economy or foreign affairs.
Neither Divisive Identity Politics, nor Terrorism nor Caste or Class conflicts find any mention in the public debate during that period with the Gujarat riots of 2002 a faint and distant echo.
It is also striking that Communal Socialist rhetoric by the usual suspects that is so common these days makes no appearance during that entire period. The most dominant topics - Kashmir, peace talks with Pakistan, the economy and the U.S. elections.
Now contrast this with how the mood of the nation has soured over the past 5 years with the Manmohan Singh Sonia Gandhi duo presiding over the nation’s affairs.
From North to South and East to West if there is one sentiment in common it is the manne in which social conflicts have been allowed to fester and dominate the public debate. The legacy of the Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi duo is not just the utter mismanagement of the economy but a litany of conflicts that have driven deep fissures into the social fabric in areas where none existed just 4 years back.
We went from a period of successful elections in Kashmir to deep conflict over Jammu, from a period where the wounds from Gujarat Riots were forgotten to a period where no debate would begin without invoking the riots, from a period where class entitlements were given the short shrift as the nation looked forward to a high performing economy to a period where the economy is no longer managed and entitlements have become the political mantra of the day.
If Terrorism was not even a footnote in the period leading up to the last election we are now faced with not just Terrorism becoming the most dominant issue of the day but with an obscenely vulgar public debate that will view everything only from the prism of vote bank politics.
How pray did the Mood of the Nation sour from one of Optimism fuelled by limitless possibilities to one of bitterness and myopic politics ?
In the answer to that friends lies the criminal irresponsibility of the Congress Party on two counts
- the first was in the foisting on this nation a political arrangement first with the Communists and then with the Samajwadi Party that thrived on Social Conflicts from communal issues in Uttar Pradesh to caste and class issues across the country
- the second was in the foisting on this nation another political arrangement of “Power without Accountability” that saw an electile dysfunctional bureaucrat in Manmohan Singh pushing the Communal Socialist agenda of a political leader in Sonia Gandhi who sees herself as being above any kind of public scrutiny.
It was not without reason that Offstumped described the politics of the Congress divisive. Premised on “Progresive Liberalism” that thrives on “victimhood” and “guilt” the evidence is incontrovertible that the Congress having inherited a nation bereft of conflict has damaged its fabric irreversibly with its Communal Socialist agenda.
On the auspicious occassion of Diwali Offstumped calls upon all right thinking nationalist Indians to reflect upon this souring of the mood of the nation and give serious thought to defeating this divisive brand of politics rather than fall into its trap for nothing serves the Communal Socialists better than festering conflicts that create new classes of victims while spreading around an all pervasive emotion of guilt.
Reforming Russia's military
Pending personnel cuts and reorganizations for the Russian armed forces indicate that the Defense Ministry is learning some lessons from the recent war with Georgia, Simon Saradzhyan writes for ISN Security Watch.
By Simon Saradzhyan in Moscow for ISN Security Watch
While a step in the right direction towards tackling local threats and away from an all-out war with NATO, planned reforms unveiled by Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov earlier this month may fail to make the armed forces fully prepared to fight local conflicts unless accompanied by the comprehensive modernization of the army’s arsenal and C4 systems.
The Russian defense minister's 14 October public announcement that he would slash the number of senior officers, disband understaffed units and boost the forces' rapid reaction capability reflects the Russian political-military leadership's desire to learn lessons from the recent war with Georgia. It also indicates that Russia believes that a large-scale war is becoming less and less probable.
What Serdyukov did not announce publicly (but is still contemplating, according to Defense Ministry sources) is changing the current organizational structure of the armed forces in another sign that the agency's leadership thinks that there will be no large-scale war in the foreseeable future.
According to Serdyukov's plan, the 10,000-12,000-strong divisions will be replaced with leaner and hopefully more mobile units - brigades, which would be subordinate to operational commands, which in turn would report to the command of the existing six military districts.
Currently, the divisions are subordinate to the armies, which answer to the districts, which in turn report to the General Staff and Defense Ministry.
The planned change should help to streamline the chain of command and expedite decision-making and implementation.
Critics of Russia's campaign in South Ossetia have claimed that the Russian military was too slow to respond to Georgia's attempted blitzkrieg, in what they partly blamed on perceived flaws in the existing system of command and control.
Serdyukov did not explain why he chose the brigade-operational command-district hierarchy over phasing out districts altogether to introduce strategic commands that would be formed on the basis of geographic directions (south, north, etc.) as the previous chief of General Staff Yuri Baluevsky had proposed.
Another lesson learned in Georgia, which Serdyukov plans to implement, is that the rapid reaction forces must be boosted. According to Serdyukov's plan, there will be a new airborne brigade formed in each of the existing six military districts. These brigades will not report to the command of the airborne troops in Moscow, but will be integrated into the hierarchy of the military districts. There are already two airborne brigades and one airborne regiment, which operate outside the command of the airborne troops.
Dual subordination of units to the military district and to the command in Moscow has slowed action in the past and new brigades will not be burdened with this disadvantage. Serdyukov's plan to establish more of such ‘independent’ units reflects his vision that lower-level commanders should have control of local assets, including those units that belong to different branches of the armed forces and arms of services, without seeking permission of the commands of these branches and arms of services in Moscow.
While beefing up rapid reaction forces, Serdyukov is also seeking to disband many "reduced to cadre" units, which are undermanned but are still formally referred to as regiments and divisions because they keep enough arms in their arsenals to become full-fledged units if given more personnel. These units take months to beef up before they can be deployed as full-fledged units. While useful in case of protracted large-scale wars, which give top brass time to beef them up, these units are far less useful in quick local conflicts of the type that Russia fought with Georgia - conflicts that require rapid deployment.
The Defense Ministry will divert resources freed up by disbanding these "fledgling units" to beef up its so-called units of permanent readiness, which are manned with professional soldiers only. For the operations in Georgia, the Russian military tried to rely on such units; however, a lack of readily available units of that kind forced commanders to deploy units with conscripts who suffered disproportional casualties due to inferior training.
Other reforms, which Serdyukov chose to publicly announce after a top bras meeting in Moscow on 14 October, include cutting the number of officers from the current total of 335,000 to 150,000 (or cutting 30 percent of the total manpower to 15 percent). These cuts should bring down the number of generals from 1,100 to 900 by 2012, reducing the manpower of the agency's central staff in Moscow from about 21,000 to 8,500 people.
While firing senior officers, Serdyukov plans to hire 10,000 more lieutenants in order to increase the share of junior officers in the overall officer corps. The agency also plans to hire more professional sergeants while phasing out the warrant officers corps. The ministry also plans to cut down the number of military academies that train officers from 65 to just 10, relocating some of them from Moscow to other cities. All these measures should be implemented by 2012. Earlier, Serdyukov vowed to cut down the armed forces from 1.13 million to 1 million by that time.
These personnel reforms reflect Serdyukov's intention to cut down a bloated military bureaucracy and hire more junior commanders and professional sergeants instead. The Russian armed forces are estimated to have six times fewer soldiers per officer than western armies. At the same time, the lack of junior commanders, such as platoon commanders, hovers at 40 percent in the national armed forces, according to local media sources.
While focusing on personnel and organizational issues, Serdyukov kept mum on what changes would be pursued to deal with flaws in armament and C4 capabilities of the armed forces.
The Russia-Georgia conflict exposed the technical backwardness of Russia's war machine, including lack of modern electronic warfare equipment, lack of all-weather night-time high-precision weapons, reconnaissance, targeting, control, navigation and other systems. It also exposed poor training of air force pilots who lost at least four planes in spite of the inferiority of Georgia's air defense systems.
A draft strategy of development of the Russian armed forces until 2030, which was leaked to press this summer, says the fact that western armed forces have more modern and advanced weaponry systems than the Russian armed forces is one of the main threats faced by Russia.
Simon Saradzhyan is a security and foreign policy analyst based in Moscow. He works as a consultant for the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University. Saradzhyan is the author of several papers on terrorism and security, including most recently "Russia: Grasping Reality of Nuclear Terror," published in The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science in September 2006.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author only, not the International Relations and Security Network (ISN).
By Simon Saradzhyan in Moscow for ISN Security Watch
While a step in the right direction towards tackling local threats and away from an all-out war with NATO, planned reforms unveiled by Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov earlier this month may fail to make the armed forces fully prepared to fight local conflicts unless accompanied by the comprehensive modernization of the army’s arsenal and C4 systems.
The Russian defense minister's 14 October public announcement that he would slash the number of senior officers, disband understaffed units and boost the forces' rapid reaction capability reflects the Russian political-military leadership's desire to learn lessons from the recent war with Georgia. It also indicates that Russia believes that a large-scale war is becoming less and less probable.
What Serdyukov did not announce publicly (but is still contemplating, according to Defense Ministry sources) is changing the current organizational structure of the armed forces in another sign that the agency's leadership thinks that there will be no large-scale war in the foreseeable future.
According to Serdyukov's plan, the 10,000-12,000-strong divisions will be replaced with leaner and hopefully more mobile units - brigades, which would be subordinate to operational commands, which in turn would report to the command of the existing six military districts.
Currently, the divisions are subordinate to the armies, which answer to the districts, which in turn report to the General Staff and Defense Ministry.
The planned change should help to streamline the chain of command and expedite decision-making and implementation.
Critics of Russia's campaign in South Ossetia have claimed that the Russian military was too slow to respond to Georgia's attempted blitzkrieg, in what they partly blamed on perceived flaws in the existing system of command and control.
Serdyukov did not explain why he chose the brigade-operational command-district hierarchy over phasing out districts altogether to introduce strategic commands that would be formed on the basis of geographic directions (south, north, etc.) as the previous chief of General Staff Yuri Baluevsky had proposed.
Another lesson learned in Georgia, which Serdyukov plans to implement, is that the rapid reaction forces must be boosted. According to Serdyukov's plan, there will be a new airborne brigade formed in each of the existing six military districts. These brigades will not report to the command of the airborne troops in Moscow, but will be integrated into the hierarchy of the military districts. There are already two airborne brigades and one airborne regiment, which operate outside the command of the airborne troops.
Dual subordination of units to the military district and to the command in Moscow has slowed action in the past and new brigades will not be burdened with this disadvantage. Serdyukov's plan to establish more of such ‘independent’ units reflects his vision that lower-level commanders should have control of local assets, including those units that belong to different branches of the armed forces and arms of services, without seeking permission of the commands of these branches and arms of services in Moscow.
While beefing up rapid reaction forces, Serdyukov is also seeking to disband many "reduced to cadre" units, which are undermanned but are still formally referred to as regiments and divisions because they keep enough arms in their arsenals to become full-fledged units if given more personnel. These units take months to beef up before they can be deployed as full-fledged units. While useful in case of protracted large-scale wars, which give top brass time to beef them up, these units are far less useful in quick local conflicts of the type that Russia fought with Georgia - conflicts that require rapid deployment.
The Defense Ministry will divert resources freed up by disbanding these "fledgling units" to beef up its so-called units of permanent readiness, which are manned with professional soldiers only. For the operations in Georgia, the Russian military tried to rely on such units; however, a lack of readily available units of that kind forced commanders to deploy units with conscripts who suffered disproportional casualties due to inferior training.
Other reforms, which Serdyukov chose to publicly announce after a top bras meeting in Moscow on 14 October, include cutting the number of officers from the current total of 335,000 to 150,000 (or cutting 30 percent of the total manpower to 15 percent). These cuts should bring down the number of generals from 1,100 to 900 by 2012, reducing the manpower of the agency's central staff in Moscow from about 21,000 to 8,500 people.
While firing senior officers, Serdyukov plans to hire 10,000 more lieutenants in order to increase the share of junior officers in the overall officer corps. The agency also plans to hire more professional sergeants while phasing out the warrant officers corps. The ministry also plans to cut down the number of military academies that train officers from 65 to just 10, relocating some of them from Moscow to other cities. All these measures should be implemented by 2012. Earlier, Serdyukov vowed to cut down the armed forces from 1.13 million to 1 million by that time.
These personnel reforms reflect Serdyukov's intention to cut down a bloated military bureaucracy and hire more junior commanders and professional sergeants instead. The Russian armed forces are estimated to have six times fewer soldiers per officer than western armies. At the same time, the lack of junior commanders, such as platoon commanders, hovers at 40 percent in the national armed forces, according to local media sources.
While focusing on personnel and organizational issues, Serdyukov kept mum on what changes would be pursued to deal with flaws in armament and C4 capabilities of the armed forces.
The Russia-Georgia conflict exposed the technical backwardness of Russia's war machine, including lack of modern electronic warfare equipment, lack of all-weather night-time high-precision weapons, reconnaissance, targeting, control, navigation and other systems. It also exposed poor training of air force pilots who lost at least four planes in spite of the inferiority of Georgia's air defense systems.
A draft strategy of development of the Russian armed forces until 2030, which was leaked to press this summer, says the fact that western armed forces have more modern and advanced weaponry systems than the Russian armed forces is one of the main threats faced by Russia.
Simon Saradzhyan is a security and foreign policy analyst based in Moscow. He works as a consultant for the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University. Saradzhyan is the author of several papers on terrorism and security, including most recently "Russia: Grasping Reality of Nuclear Terror," published in The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science in September 2006.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author only, not the International Relations and Security Network (ISN).
How the Congress betrayed the aam admi - Part 1
Source: OFFSTUMPED
Continuing with its focus on how the mood of the nation has soured since 2004, Offstumped turns the spotlight to the Congress Manifesto from 2004 to expose its betrayal of the Aam Admi.
Here is what the Congress said in 2004 was the key issue.
The Congress recognises that this is not a moment for a
narrow pursuit of partisan power. This is the moment
to consolidate all forces subscribing to the fundamental
values of our Constitution. The Congress’s
goal is to defeat the forces of obscurantism and
bigotry who contributed nothing to the Freedom
Movement or the making of our Constitution and
whose sole objective is to subvert our millennial
heritage and composite nationhood. In this sacred
endeavour, the Congress has joined hands with
like-minded political parties in different states.
The Congress and its various allies are
united in their determination to defeat the BJP,
which threatens to rewrite our past and
wreck our future. In the process, we will present
the national alternative to bring India back on the path
of economic growth with social harmony
Well let us see how the Sonia Gandhi Manmohan Singh duo fared in the 4 years since on the path of economic growth.
- Inflation is at an all time high spiking from 4.5%-5.5% back in 2004-2005 to upwards of 11% in 2008
- If India can manage 7.5% GDP growth it will be an accomplishment marginally better than what it was back in 2004-2005
- If India’s fiscal deficit in 2004-2005 was 4.3% of GDP this editorial in the Mint lays it all out
With the fiscal deficit being much higher than the targeted 2.5% of gross domestic product, fiscal expansion may have run its course. When combined with the deficits of state governments, the figure assumes alarming proportions. In any case, these massive expenditures have generated demand in the face of supply constraints. That’s the story of Indian inflation. With inflation hovering around 11%, fuelling demand can’t be a solution.
That is the path of economic growth the Congress under Manmohan Singh-Sonia Gandhi has lead us down.
On the Social Harmony front nothing exemplifies the State of the Nation, under Sonia Gandhi’s absentee leadership and Manmohan Singh’s Executive delinquency, better than the sad and tragic episode that played out on a bus in Mumbai.
From Raj Thackeray to Amar Singh, from Prakash Karat to Karunanidhi, the legacy of the UPA sarkaar has been to stoke the fires of Communal Socialism to earn the dubious distinction of social conflict in every part of the nation.
That friends is the National Alternative the Congress has offered since 2004.
In the coming days, Offstumped will further dissect the 2004 Manifesto to illustrate the betrayal of the aam admi in the past 4 years.
Continuing with its focus on how the mood of the nation has soured since 2004, Offstumped turns the spotlight to the Congress Manifesto from 2004 to expose its betrayal of the Aam Admi.
Here is what the Congress said in 2004 was the key issue.
The Congress recognises that this is not a moment for a
narrow pursuit of partisan power. This is the moment
to consolidate all forces subscribing to the fundamental
values of our Constitution. The Congress’s
goal is to defeat the forces of obscurantism and
bigotry who contributed nothing to the Freedom
Movement or the making of our Constitution and
whose sole objective is to subvert our millennial
heritage and composite nationhood. In this sacred
endeavour, the Congress has joined hands with
like-minded political parties in different states.
The Congress and its various allies are
united in their determination to defeat the BJP,
which threatens to rewrite our past and
wreck our future. In the process, we will present
the national alternative to bring India back on the path
of economic growth with social harmony
Well let us see how the Sonia Gandhi Manmohan Singh duo fared in the 4 years since on the path of economic growth.
- Inflation is at an all time high spiking from 4.5%-5.5% back in 2004-2005 to upwards of 11% in 2008
- If India can manage 7.5% GDP growth it will be an accomplishment marginally better than what it was back in 2004-2005
- If India’s fiscal deficit in 2004-2005 was 4.3% of GDP this editorial in the Mint lays it all out
With the fiscal deficit being much higher than the targeted 2.5% of gross domestic product, fiscal expansion may have run its course. When combined with the deficits of state governments, the figure assumes alarming proportions. In any case, these massive expenditures have generated demand in the face of supply constraints. That’s the story of Indian inflation. With inflation hovering around 11%, fuelling demand can’t be a solution.
That is the path of economic growth the Congress under Manmohan Singh-Sonia Gandhi has lead us down.
On the Social Harmony front nothing exemplifies the State of the Nation, under Sonia Gandhi’s absentee leadership and Manmohan Singh’s Executive delinquency, better than the sad and tragic episode that played out on a bus in Mumbai.
From Raj Thackeray to Amar Singh, from Prakash Karat to Karunanidhi, the legacy of the UPA sarkaar has been to stoke the fires of Communal Socialism to earn the dubious distinction of social conflict in every part of the nation.
That friends is the National Alternative the Congress has offered since 2004.
In the coming days, Offstumped will further dissect the 2004 Manifesto to illustrate the betrayal of the aam admi in the past 4 years.
UAE investors buy farmland in Balochistan
Monday, 27 October 2008
A group including several UAE private and public sector firms has paid an estimated $40 million to buy farmland in Pakistan as part of the Emirates' strategy to lower food import costs, UAE daily The National reported on Monday.
The land amounts to 16,187 hectares and is located in Balochistan province, the paper said.
The seven-member delegation comprising representatives of the investment firms and led by UAE businessman Khadim Abdullah Al-Dahiri, has been in Pakistan for the past week and is "shortly" expected to sign a memorandum of understanding with the Balochistan provincial government, the paper quoted a senior Pakistan government official as saying.
The land is in the catchment area of the Mirani Dam and will require a further $20m investment to introduce irrigation and improvements to the land's fertility, the official said.
"Both investors and the Balochistan government have agreed to jointly undertake infrastructure development in the areas surrounding the farmland,"
the official, who declined to be named, said.
He would not reveal which UAE firms had made the investment, the paper added.
A second delegation, comprising representatives of the UAE Ministry of Economy and Ministry of Agriculture as well as up to six senior officials from public and private firms involved in the business of importing food, is also expected to visit Pakistan by the end of this year, according to the official.
The UAE delegation was originally scheduled to leave for Islamabad last month to visit farmland in four Pakistani provinces and meet several farming families to explore the possibilities of forming joint ventures but political instability and security concerns delayed the trip, it said.
The UAE’s Ministry of Economy and individual investors have been in talks with Pakistan since the beginning of the year to buy land there, but this is the first official visit of investors to Pakistan, the paper said.
Al Qudra Holding, the Abu Dhabi-based investment company, said in August said it planned to buy around 400,000 hectares of land in the Middle East, East Africa and Far East by March 2009.
Abu Dhabi Group, the single-largest foreign direct investor in Pakistan, Emirates Investment Group and Abraaj Capital, a Dubai-based investment firm, have all expressed interest in Pakistan’s agricultural sector.
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/536263-uae-investors-buy-agricultural-land-in-pakistan
A group including several UAE private and public sector firms has paid an estimated $40 million to buy farmland in Pakistan as part of the Emirates' strategy to lower food import costs, UAE daily The National reported on Monday.
The land amounts to 16,187 hectares and is located in Balochistan province, the paper said.
The seven-member delegation comprising representatives of the investment firms and led by UAE businessman Khadim Abdullah Al-Dahiri, has been in Pakistan for the past week and is "shortly" expected to sign a memorandum of understanding with the Balochistan provincial government, the paper quoted a senior Pakistan government official as saying.
The land is in the catchment area of the Mirani Dam and will require a further $20m investment to introduce irrigation and improvements to the land's fertility, the official said.
"Both investors and the Balochistan government have agreed to jointly undertake infrastructure development in the areas surrounding the farmland,"
the official, who declined to be named, said.
He would not reveal which UAE firms had made the investment, the paper added.
A second delegation, comprising representatives of the UAE Ministry of Economy and Ministry of Agriculture as well as up to six senior officials from public and private firms involved in the business of importing food, is also expected to visit Pakistan by the end of this year, according to the official.
The UAE delegation was originally scheduled to leave for Islamabad last month to visit farmland in four Pakistani provinces and meet several farming families to explore the possibilities of forming joint ventures but political instability and security concerns delayed the trip, it said.
The UAE’s Ministry of Economy and individual investors have been in talks with Pakistan since the beginning of the year to buy land there, but this is the first official visit of investors to Pakistan, the paper said.
Al Qudra Holding, the Abu Dhabi-based investment company, said in August said it planned to buy around 400,000 hectares of land in the Middle East, East Africa and Far East by March 2009.
Abu Dhabi Group, the single-largest foreign direct investor in Pakistan, Emirates Investment Group and Abraaj Capital, a Dubai-based investment firm, have all expressed interest in Pakistan’s agricultural sector.
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/536263-uae-investors-buy-agricultural-land-in-pakistan
Panel to probe RAW sexual harassment cases
NDTV Correspondent
Monday, October 27, 2008, (New Delhi)
Eight cases of sexual harassment against a dozen RAW officers above the rank of additional secretary have been referred to a special committee.
Two of the cases have been filed by Nisha Bhatia, who tried to immolate herself in front of the PMO in August. Nisha was posted at the training centre of the foreign intelligence agency in Gurgaon and in the past had alleged sexual harassment by her superiors.
Now, the special committee that's been formed by the PMO will probe the charges and is likely to give its report soon.
RAW was in the news for wrong reasons when Ravinder Singh, a Joint Secretary-level officer in RAW, escaped to the US in 2004. Later, several allegations were levelled by a former official Major General (retd) V K Singh about corruption in the agency.
Monday, October 27, 2008, (New Delhi)
Eight cases of sexual harassment against a dozen RAW officers above the rank of additional secretary have been referred to a special committee.
Two of the cases have been filed by Nisha Bhatia, who tried to immolate herself in front of the PMO in August. Nisha was posted at the training centre of the foreign intelligence agency in Gurgaon and in the past had alleged sexual harassment by her superiors.
Now, the special committee that's been formed by the PMO will probe the charges and is likely to give its report soon.
RAW was in the news for wrong reasons when Ravinder Singh, a Joint Secretary-level officer in RAW, escaped to the US in 2004. Later, several allegations were levelled by a former official Major General (retd) V K Singh about corruption in the agency.
Sarkozy: The "Dictatorship" of the Market Is Dead,
http://news.eirna.com/110265/sarkozy-the-dictatorship-of-the-market-is-dead-politics-and-the-state-are-back-in-the-game
Politics and the State Are Back in the Game
In a major speech Oct. 23 at Annecy le Vieux, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, announced several measures aimed at protecting the French real economy from the present crash. Interesting to understand his state of mind and his overall intention, is that at the very outset, he launched an attack on the market ideology, emphasizing that since the beginning of this crash, what is good is that the idea that the markets and "experts" would decide on everything, is "dead," and that "politics" is back in the game, as well as the "role of the state" in the economy.
Sarkozy detailed the series of measures he has taken to try to protect the economy. First, there is the urgent problem of the credit crunch threatening to asphyxiate the entire economy. To deal with this the French government redirected the EU22 billion surplus placed in state-guaranteed savings accounts towards credit for companies, and injected EU10.5 billion into the banks which agreed, by contract, they would use it to increase lending to companies by EU75 billion. In order to guarantee that this all will happen, Sarkozy named René Ricol to head up a national effort, involving the prefects and fiscal authorities of each department, in ensuring that the banks will extend the credit lines to the real economy and not use it for other purposes.
Nicolas Sarkozy also announced, that beyond the announced EU360 billion - EU320 billion in guarantees and EU40 billion actual funds - EU178 billion will be extended over three years, in direct state involvement in the economy into priority areas: higher education, research, defense, developing the canal transport system (in particular the Seine/Escaut canal going into Northern Europe), new TGV lines (Lyon-Turin), and renewable energy, including the 3rd generation nuclear power plants and research into the 4th generation.
Finally, in spite of German opposition, Sarkozy announced the creation of a kind of "sovereign fund" whose role will be to intervene to stop predator hedge-funds or other capital, from taking over French companies whose assets have been totally depreciated by the collapse of the stock markets, and to make other investments deemed necessary to the nation. The fund will be run by the Caisse des Dépoôts et des Consignations (CDC), a state-controlled Marshall Plan-type organization which could merge with the Government Shareholding Agency (APE), which combined would have EU200 billion initial assets. While this entire policy will collapse if there is no bankruptcy reorganization of the system through a New Bretton Woods, as LaRouche and Cheminade have stated and restated, the French state institutions are proceeding to do whatever is in their power to protect the essential elements of the French economy.
Politics and the State Are Back in the Game
In a major speech Oct. 23 at Annecy le Vieux, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, announced several measures aimed at protecting the French real economy from the present crash. Interesting to understand his state of mind and his overall intention, is that at the very outset, he launched an attack on the market ideology, emphasizing that since the beginning of this crash, what is good is that the idea that the markets and "experts" would decide on everything, is "dead," and that "politics" is back in the game, as well as the "role of the state" in the economy.
Sarkozy detailed the series of measures he has taken to try to protect the economy. First, there is the urgent problem of the credit crunch threatening to asphyxiate the entire economy. To deal with this the French government redirected the EU22 billion surplus placed in state-guaranteed savings accounts towards credit for companies, and injected EU10.5 billion into the banks which agreed, by contract, they would use it to increase lending to companies by EU75 billion. In order to guarantee that this all will happen, Sarkozy named René Ricol to head up a national effort, involving the prefects and fiscal authorities of each department, in ensuring that the banks will extend the credit lines to the real economy and not use it for other purposes.
Nicolas Sarkozy also announced, that beyond the announced EU360 billion - EU320 billion in guarantees and EU40 billion actual funds - EU178 billion will be extended over three years, in direct state involvement in the economy into priority areas: higher education, research, defense, developing the canal transport system (in particular the Seine/Escaut canal going into Northern Europe), new TGV lines (Lyon-Turin), and renewable energy, including the 3rd generation nuclear power plants and research into the 4th generation.
Finally, in spite of German opposition, Sarkozy announced the creation of a kind of "sovereign fund" whose role will be to intervene to stop predator hedge-funds or other capital, from taking over French companies whose assets have been totally depreciated by the collapse of the stock markets, and to make other investments deemed necessary to the nation. The fund will be run by the Caisse des Dépoôts et des Consignations (CDC), a state-controlled Marshall Plan-type organization which could merge with the Government Shareholding Agency (APE), which combined would have EU200 billion initial assets. While this entire policy will collapse if there is no bankruptcy reorganization of the system through a New Bretton Woods, as LaRouche and Cheminade have stated and restated, the French state institutions are proceeding to do whatever is in their power to protect the essential elements of the French economy.
The Prophecy of Global Collapse: Greenspan vs. LaRouche
Oct 26, 2008 (EIRNS)—Websites and publications throughout the Arabic language world have been posting an Oct. 22 article by Kareem Al-Hazzaa', titled "The Prophecy of Global Collapse Between Greenspan and LaRouche," comparing the accurate and scientific economic forecasts of Lyndon LaRouche to the disaster of Alan Greenspan. The article was published in Arabic on October 22, 2008 in Kuwait's Awan daily newspaper, www.awan.com.kw. The article's text, translated by Hussein Askary of EIR, runs as follows:
"The critical moments the world economy is passing through are nothing new, because there have been many such decisive moments in world economy, and among these the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, and what that event revealed regarding the economic breakdown behind the Iron Curtain. That state of collapse was much greater than the expectations of the best informed western economists. Centralized planning was exposed as a great failure that cannot be reformed. This was coupled with, and supported by, the growing illusion about the private interventionist economic policies of the Western democracies. Market economy policies started replacing these policies quietly in large parts of the world. It [centralized planning economy] was dropped from the world economic agenda and there was no more praise heaped on it anywhere but in North Korea. However, in the year 2000, when the DotCom bubble burst, until 911, 2001, the U.S. economy was experiencing a limited recession. But a 'recovery' started with the successive lowering of interest rates....
"When it comes to the prophesies regarding the coming of the current crisis, Alan Greenspan (Former Federal Reserve Chief) stated the following in a radio interview with NPR earlier this year, and was published on the news site MoneyNews.com: 'What I have to forecast is that something will happen which is unexpected, which will knock us down.... The odds of that happening, I think, are rising, because we are getting in vulnerable areas.' Greenspan added: 'What I point out is that we're in a turning phase, and that the extraordinary improvements that have occurred in the world economy in the last 15 years are transitory, and they're about to change ... So, I think this whole process will begin to reverse.' On interest rates, Greenspan said: 'Now [they] are set by the supply of investment money worldwide; a force much larger than the concerted efforts of central banks, including the Fed.... We and all other central banks lost control of the forces directing higher prices in homes.'
In contrast to Greenspan and generally most economists in the West, the record of economist [Lyndon] LaRouche in economic forecasting has been, and still is, the most accurate and most scientific. Many years ago, LaRouche forecast this systemic global financial crisis and the collapse of the post-Bretton Woods floating dollar system. In a speech made on July 25, 2007, LaRouche said that the financial and banking crisis had entered its terminal phase in that month. One week after that speech, the chain of collapse of international banks started, beginning with what was falsely called the U.S. subprime loan market.
LaRouche presented early on the solution to the housing and banking crisis in the form of a legislation to be presented to Congress. Many city councils in various U.S. states adopted LaRouche's legislation proposal and called upon the U.S. Congress to adopt it too. This legislation called 'The Homeowners and Bank Protection Act' was the first step to pull the economy of the United Stated from the deadly crisis it found itself in, and it will be followed by more comprehensive steps to establish a new just world economic and monetary order which LaRouche calls 'a New Bretton Woods System.'
"Many believe that LaRouche's idea is the only alternative to pull the world away from the pincer arms of economic collapse and chaotic wars, behind which lies the Anglo-Dutch financial oligarchic crowd, as LaRouche calls it. This crowd, who believe that chaos is the only means to preserve their control over the globalized world economy, which is nothing other than a new version of the British Empire's system and the military-economic model of the British East India Company.
"This crowd owns and controls the most vicious intelligence machine on this planet, the British intelligence with both of its branches, the internal [MI5] and foreign [MI6] branches that have been penetrating most of the world's terrorist groups since the 1970s, protecting and controlling them, or destroying them whenever it is convenient to the geopolitical interests of this crowd, especially since these [terrorist] groups and similarly most of the world's political opposition groups are practicing their activities from London."
This article was republished in Saudi elaph.com news site and many other Arabic news websites in the days following the original publication on Oct. 22.
"The critical moments the world economy is passing through are nothing new, because there have been many such decisive moments in world economy, and among these the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, and what that event revealed regarding the economic breakdown behind the Iron Curtain. That state of collapse was much greater than the expectations of the best informed western economists. Centralized planning was exposed as a great failure that cannot be reformed. This was coupled with, and supported by, the growing illusion about the private interventionist economic policies of the Western democracies. Market economy policies started replacing these policies quietly in large parts of the world. It [centralized planning economy] was dropped from the world economic agenda and there was no more praise heaped on it anywhere but in North Korea. However, in the year 2000, when the DotCom bubble burst, until 911, 2001, the U.S. economy was experiencing a limited recession. But a 'recovery' started with the successive lowering of interest rates....
"When it comes to the prophesies regarding the coming of the current crisis, Alan Greenspan (Former Federal Reserve Chief) stated the following in a radio interview with NPR earlier this year, and was published on the news site MoneyNews.com: 'What I have to forecast is that something will happen which is unexpected, which will knock us down.... The odds of that happening, I think, are rising, because we are getting in vulnerable areas.' Greenspan added: 'What I point out is that we're in a turning phase, and that the extraordinary improvements that have occurred in the world economy in the last 15 years are transitory, and they're about to change ... So, I think this whole process will begin to reverse.' On interest rates, Greenspan said: 'Now [they] are set by the supply of investment money worldwide; a force much larger than the concerted efforts of central banks, including the Fed.... We and all other central banks lost control of the forces directing higher prices in homes.'
In contrast to Greenspan and generally most economists in the West, the record of economist [Lyndon] LaRouche in economic forecasting has been, and still is, the most accurate and most scientific. Many years ago, LaRouche forecast this systemic global financial crisis and the collapse of the post-Bretton Woods floating dollar system. In a speech made on July 25, 2007, LaRouche said that the financial and banking crisis had entered its terminal phase in that month. One week after that speech, the chain of collapse of international banks started, beginning with what was falsely called the U.S. subprime loan market.
LaRouche presented early on the solution to the housing and banking crisis in the form of a legislation to be presented to Congress. Many city councils in various U.S. states adopted LaRouche's legislation proposal and called upon the U.S. Congress to adopt it too. This legislation called 'The Homeowners and Bank Protection Act' was the first step to pull the economy of the United Stated from the deadly crisis it found itself in, and it will be followed by more comprehensive steps to establish a new just world economic and monetary order which LaRouche calls 'a New Bretton Woods System.'
"Many believe that LaRouche's idea is the only alternative to pull the world away from the pincer arms of economic collapse and chaotic wars, behind which lies the Anglo-Dutch financial oligarchic crowd, as LaRouche calls it. This crowd, who believe that chaos is the only means to preserve their control over the globalized world economy, which is nothing other than a new version of the British Empire's system and the military-economic model of the British East India Company.
"This crowd owns and controls the most vicious intelligence machine on this planet, the British intelligence with both of its branches, the internal [MI5] and foreign [MI6] branches that have been penetrating most of the world's terrorist groups since the 1970s, protecting and controlling them, or destroying them whenever it is convenient to the geopolitical interests of this crowd, especially since these [terrorist] groups and similarly most of the world's political opposition groups are practicing their activities from London."
This article was republished in Saudi elaph.com news site and many other Arabic news websites in the days following the original publication on Oct. 22.
Lies and Audiotape: Morgan Chase Exec Brags Bailout Is for Takeovers, Restructuring, Not Lending
Oct. 26, 2008 (EIRNS)—In an internal bank conference call last week, a JP Morgan Chase executive, unaware that his conversation would be heard and published by a reporter, confirmed exactly what Lyndon LaRouche has said about the Hank Paulson bail-out: It has nothing remotely to do with extending lending to the U.S. economy, but is concerned with the Mussolini-like corporatist restructuring of the U.S. banking system, turning over the "smaller banks" to the totally bankrupt big banks, so that they can digest the smaller banks' assets, and survive perhaps a few more weeks.
New York Times reporter Joe Nocera obtained the call-in phone number on which the Oct. 17 Morgan Chase conference call took place, only 4 days after JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon had agreed to take $25 billion in a U.S. government capital injection. In an article in the Oct. 25 Times, entitled "So When Will Banks Give Loans?" Nocera quoted the unnamed JP Morgan Chase executive who gave the conference call, as follows:
"Twenty-five billion dollars is obviously going to help the folks who are struggling more than Chase," he began. "What we do think it will help us do, is perhaps be a little bit more active on the acquisition side, or opportunistic side, for some banks who are still struggling. And I would not assume that we are done on the acquisition side, just because of the Washington Mutual and Bear Stearns mergers. I think there are going to be some great opportunities for us to grow in this environment, and I think we have an opportunity to use that $25 billion in that way. And obviously depending on whether recession turns into depression or what happens in the future, you know, we have that as a backstop." [emphasis added]
Later during the call, the executive showed what a fig-leaf is Paulson's claim that the capital injection part of the bail-out plan would start up lending to the economy. The executive explained "loan dollars are down significantly." He added, "We would think that loan volume will continue to go down as we continue to tighten credit to fully reflect the high cost of pricing on the loan side."
New York Times reporter Joe Nocera obtained the call-in phone number on which the Oct. 17 Morgan Chase conference call took place, only 4 days after JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon had agreed to take $25 billion in a U.S. government capital injection. In an article in the Oct. 25 Times, entitled "So When Will Banks Give Loans?" Nocera quoted the unnamed JP Morgan Chase executive who gave the conference call, as follows:
"Twenty-five billion dollars is obviously going to help the folks who are struggling more than Chase," he began. "What we do think it will help us do, is perhaps be a little bit more active on the acquisition side, or opportunistic side, for some banks who are still struggling. And I would not assume that we are done on the acquisition side, just because of the Washington Mutual and Bear Stearns mergers. I think there are going to be some great opportunities for us to grow in this environment, and I think we have an opportunity to use that $25 billion in that way. And obviously depending on whether recession turns into depression or what happens in the future, you know, we have that as a backstop." [emphasis added]
Later during the call, the executive showed what a fig-leaf is Paulson's claim that the capital injection part of the bail-out plan would start up lending to the economy. The executive explained "loan dollars are down significantly." He added, "We would think that loan volume will continue to go down as we continue to tighten credit to fully reflect the high cost of pricing on the loan side."
Baloch unity Wishes very happy Diwali to our Hindu friends
Baloch unity greets Balochistan’s large Hindu community on the occasion of Diwali, and wishes our Hindu friends peace and happiness. We wish to extend on behalf of Baloch unity , our heartiest greetings to the Hindu community on the occasion of Diwali.
Baloch unity believes that Hindus are equal brothers to Baloch as both bear the same burdens be it general living conditions or Balochistan’s freedom struggle we cannot forget that Hindus sacrificed so many of their loved ones fighting shoulder to shoulder along with their Baloch brothers for equal rights, and better future for Balochistan’s people and that struggle is far from over.
Baloch must protect and help their Hindu friends in Balochistan, share with them their happy and sad moments. Let our Hindu friends be part of us that will enrich our nation in every way, Baloch are tolerant people and do not support violence but when forced they will fight till victory, we support and must protect all minorities in Balochistan regardless of their race or religion.
For more information about Balochistan visit the daily updated site: http://www.balochunity.org/
Baloch Unity! The only solution to Baloch problems
October 27, 2008
American Friends of Baluchistan starts its campaign
American Friends of Baluchistan
--A voice for peace in southwest Asia
Oct. 27, 2008
Press release
Contact: 301-957-0008
WASHINGTON DC: The American Friends of Baluchistan Sunday urged U.S. citizens to prevail upon their government to have the nuclear tests in Baluchistan stopped as it has the potential to endanger U.S. security.
Speaking at a gathering at the Mayorga Coffee Factory, veteran journalist Ahmar Mustikhan, who is also founder of the American Friends of Baluchistan, regretted that the atrocities on the people of Baluchistan were historically carried out with U.S. blessings and the time has come for Washington to demand the right of self-determination for the Baluch people.
"In Pakistan, U.S supplied weapons are being used even to this day to subjugate the Baluch. Cobra helicopters, F-16 fighter jets, and what not," Mustikhan said. He pointed out that as recently as May this year three Baluch were burnt alve by the Pakistan army.
Pakistan conducted deadly nuclear tests in Baluchistan in May 1998 against the explicit wishes of the Baluch and the A.F.B. has initiated a world wide signature campaign to have the tests in Baluchistan stopped.
Citizens of nations across the world has signed the petition--the goal is to collect 100,000 signatures.
The A.F.B. petition states: "Whereas all nuclear weapons are equally condemnable, but Pakistan's weapons of mass destruction is even more dangerous as it is religion-specific. As part of its state ideology, Pakistan considers people from other religions as its enemies and has made clear it will not desist from being the first to use nuclear weapons."
Participants in the gathering assured Mustikhan they will write to their legislators to protest Pakistan Army atrocities against the Baluch people.
Following is the full text of Mustikhan's talk:
"It's strange to be born a slave. Very strange. Really horrible.
Ask any slave what he wants and the answer will invariably be freedom. So do I—I want the independence of Baluchistan, in southwest Asia. Thousands of Baluch have given their lives in their struggle for freedom and justice.
Many of you might not be knowing I am an ethnic Baluch, nothing to do with Pakistan or Iran as such. The only thing we want is Iranian and Pakistani troops leave Baluchistan now.
Baluchistan was left divided by the wrong policies of the British Imperialists. Baluch territories if united and free would be bigger than Pakistan and Iran.
But the Pakistan army and the Iranian mullahs have turned Baluchistan into their colonies.
Over the last six decades, the atrocities committed on the Baluch had U.S. blessings. Of course that was the case when the Shah of Iran Reza Shah Pehlavi sat on the peacock throne in Iran. Baluch were burnt alive as recently as May of this year in Pakistan. Press reports have bared use of chemical weapons against the hapless Baluch people. In Iran, public hangings are almost a daily affair.
Baluchistan has some of the world's best political leaders. Nawab Khair Bakhsh Marri, a veteran leader sacrificed his son named Nawabzada Balaach Marri last year in the Baluch fight for independence and justice. Sardar Attaulah Mengal another leader sacrificed his son more than 30 years ago, named Asadaullah Mengal. Killed by Pakistan's secret services, his body was never found.
Political heavyweights, highest people in tribal Baluchistan, like Nawab Nauroz Khan Zarakzai fought against the ruthless army of Pakistan, the fourth largest in the world, more than four decades ago. At age 90, he died in prison. Likewise, Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti , a former chief minister and governor of Baluchistan, threw the gauntlet at Pakistan army in 2003, an army that is equipped with nuclear arms.
According to former U.S. ambassador to Pakistan Robert Oakley, Bugti could have made a very good governor in any state in the U.S.He was killed extra judicially in August 2006 by the Pakistan army. His remains were not reutrned to his family and they were not even allowed to conduct his funeral.
In recent months, a significant development was that the De Jure Ruler of Baluchistan, also called the Khan of Kalat—his name is Suleman Daud Ahmedzai—sought asylum in the U.K. He wants to get Baluchistan liberated by using legal means.
In the packet that I am giving to you today, you can find a CD of an interesting documentary made by a New York team who went to Baluchistan. This will provide you one of the most authentic stories about Baluchistan. Wendy Johnson, who was one of the producers of the documentary, was kind to send me the CD.
Baluchistan is being used by Pakistan for testing nuclear weapons. These weapons might one day be used against the U.S., Israel or India. Pakistan has very clearly said it will not shy away from being the first to use these weapons.
Common Americans can play a big role to end the injustices against Baluchistan and at the same time make the world a safer place.
Please find in the packet a petition that has been circulating on the web. I shall really appreciate if you may please sign the petition.
http://www.thepetitionsite.com/2/stop-nuclear-tests-in-baluchistan?page=1
I urge you to please write to the lawmakers you know to help Baluchistan win its right to self determination. I urge you to please jot down a few lines to presidential hopefuls Barack Obama and John McCain to stop all military aid and supplies to Pakistan until it stops all nuclear and arms testing in Baluchistan and grants the Baluch people the right to self determination."
--A voice for peace in southwest Asia
Oct. 27, 2008
Press release
Contact: 301-957-0008
WASHINGTON DC: The American Friends of Baluchistan Sunday urged U.S. citizens to prevail upon their government to have the nuclear tests in Baluchistan stopped as it has the potential to endanger U.S. security.
Speaking at a gathering at the Mayorga Coffee Factory, veteran journalist Ahmar Mustikhan, who is also founder of the American Friends of Baluchistan, regretted that the atrocities on the people of Baluchistan were historically carried out with U.S. blessings and the time has come for Washington to demand the right of self-determination for the Baluch people.
"In Pakistan, U.S supplied weapons are being used even to this day to subjugate the Baluch. Cobra helicopters, F-16 fighter jets, and what not," Mustikhan said. He pointed out that as recently as May this year three Baluch were burnt alve by the Pakistan army.
Pakistan conducted deadly nuclear tests in Baluchistan in May 1998 against the explicit wishes of the Baluch and the A.F.B. has initiated a world wide signature campaign to have the tests in Baluchistan stopped.
Citizens of nations across the world has signed the petition--the goal is to collect 100,000 signatures.
The A.F.B. petition states: "Whereas all nuclear weapons are equally condemnable, but Pakistan's weapons of mass destruction is even more dangerous as it is religion-specific. As part of its state ideology, Pakistan considers people from other religions as its enemies and has made clear it will not desist from being the first to use nuclear weapons."
Participants in the gathering assured Mustikhan they will write to their legislators to protest Pakistan Army atrocities against the Baluch people.
Following is the full text of Mustikhan's talk:
"It's strange to be born a slave. Very strange. Really horrible.
Ask any slave what he wants and the answer will invariably be freedom. So do I—I want the independence of Baluchistan, in southwest Asia. Thousands of Baluch have given their lives in their struggle for freedom and justice.
Many of you might not be knowing I am an ethnic Baluch, nothing to do with Pakistan or Iran as such. The only thing we want is Iranian and Pakistani troops leave Baluchistan now.
Baluchistan was left divided by the wrong policies of the British Imperialists. Baluch territories if united and free would be bigger than Pakistan and Iran.
But the Pakistan army and the Iranian mullahs have turned Baluchistan into their colonies.
Over the last six decades, the atrocities committed on the Baluch had U.S. blessings. Of course that was the case when the Shah of Iran Reza Shah Pehlavi sat on the peacock throne in Iran. Baluch were burnt alive as recently as May of this year in Pakistan. Press reports have bared use of chemical weapons against the hapless Baluch people. In Iran, public hangings are almost a daily affair.
Baluchistan has some of the world's best political leaders. Nawab Khair Bakhsh Marri, a veteran leader sacrificed his son named Nawabzada Balaach Marri last year in the Baluch fight for independence and justice. Sardar Attaulah Mengal another leader sacrificed his son more than 30 years ago, named Asadaullah Mengal. Killed by Pakistan's secret services, his body was never found.
Political heavyweights, highest people in tribal Baluchistan, like Nawab Nauroz Khan Zarakzai fought against the ruthless army of Pakistan, the fourth largest in the world, more than four decades ago. At age 90, he died in prison. Likewise, Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti , a former chief minister and governor of Baluchistan, threw the gauntlet at Pakistan army in 2003, an army that is equipped with nuclear arms.
According to former U.S. ambassador to Pakistan Robert Oakley, Bugti could have made a very good governor in any state in the U.S.He was killed extra judicially in August 2006 by the Pakistan army. His remains were not reutrned to his family and they were not even allowed to conduct his funeral.
In recent months, a significant development was that the De Jure Ruler of Baluchistan, also called the Khan of Kalat—his name is Suleman Daud Ahmedzai—sought asylum in the U.K. He wants to get Baluchistan liberated by using legal means.
In the packet that I am giving to you today, you can find a CD of an interesting documentary made by a New York team who went to Baluchistan. This will provide you one of the most authentic stories about Baluchistan. Wendy Johnson, who was one of the producers of the documentary, was kind to send me the CD.
Baluchistan is being used by Pakistan for testing nuclear weapons. These weapons might one day be used against the U.S., Israel or India. Pakistan has very clearly said it will not shy away from being the first to use these weapons.
Common Americans can play a big role to end the injustices against Baluchistan and at the same time make the world a safer place.
Please find in the packet a petition that has been circulating on the web. I shall really appreciate if you may please sign the petition.
http://www.thepetitionsite.com/2/stop-nuclear-tests-in-baluchistan?page=1
I urge you to please write to the lawmakers you know to help Baluchistan win its right to self determination. I urge you to please jot down a few lines to presidential hopefuls Barack Obama and John McCain to stop all military aid and supplies to Pakistan until it stops all nuclear and arms testing in Baluchistan and grants the Baluch people the right to self determination."
US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: WAITING FOR OBL
B.RAMAN
It is just one week before the US Presidential elections. We all know all that we want to know about the two candidates Senators John McCain of the Republican Party and Senator Barrack Obama of the Democratic Party. We also know what the American people think of them and their ideas for the future through the public opinion polls which, without an exception, predict voter approval for Obama and his ideas----whether relating to the economy, the so-called war against terrorism or Iran's nuclear programme.
2.But there is still a missing gap in our knowledge---what Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda think of the two candidates and their proposed policies. On the eve of the Presidential elections of 2004 (on October29,2004), Osama entered the pre-poll scene in the US with a video message to the American people, which poured scorn over American claims regarding the war. Commenting on his message, I wrote:
"As the date of the polls approached, there was feverish speculation as to whether Bush, helped by President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, would produce OBL before the American people like a magician producing a rabbit out of his hat and thereby make Kerry look silly and win a thumping victory. Instead of Bush producing OBL and embarrassing Kerry, it is OBL's spin-masters who have produced him before the voters, making Bush, Kerry and everybody else in the US look silly and confused." (http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers12/paper1155.html)
3. Is OBL planning a similar entry into the poll scene before the Americans vote? It will be out of keeping with him if he does not. Watch out during the days to come. Will he pour scorn over McCain and Bush just as Al Qaeda web sites are already doing? What will he say about the statements of Obama about his determination to hunt for OBL, even if he has to send the US troops into Pakistani territory to catch him---provided he has precise intelligence? Will he talk of what the jihadis in Pakistan and Afghanistan describe as the newly opened third front in the war---- in the Wall Street?
4. Or will the expected message fail to materialise? If it fails to come, that will be more significant than his message if it does come. Failure to materialise would mean that there is something wrong somewhere in the Pashtun belt from where OBL is stated to be operating. The US and the Asif Ali Zardari Government in Pakistan----while pretending to criticise in open each other's counter-terrorism policies---- have been secretly co-operating and co-ordinating their operations even more closely than was the case under Pervez Musharraf---- the US from the air through repeated air strikes by pilotless drones in the two Waziristans and through aerial surveillance and the Pakistan Army and the Frontier Corps on the ground in the Bajaur Agency and the Swat Valley.
5. It is apparent that the stepped up operations both by the Americans and the Pakistanis are not unrelated to the Presidential polls. If the Americans can get a high-value target such as OBL or his No.2 Ayman al-Zawahiri before the polls, it will not only redound to the credit of Bush before he leaves office, but could also benefit McCain, who is desperately trying to avert a seeming rout in the elections.
6. Al Qaeda's foreign volunteers are on the run from village to village, from mosque to mosque and from madrasa to madrasa to protect themselves from the air strikes of the US and Pakistan. The war against terrorism has seen intense air strikes in Afghan territory from the beginning. Since Zardari's meeting with Bush in New York in September, it has been seeing an intense wave of air strikes in Pakistani territory. US planes have been flying across Pakistani air space over the tribal belt as if they are flying in US air space without worrying about the proforma criticism from Pakistani leaders and officials and repeatedly attacking suspected Al Qaeda hide-outs. They have killed many, but not the ones that matter.
7. What stands between the US and OBL or Zawahiri is just luck and a little bit of advance intelligence. Both have eluded the US so far. For air strikes, the US has to be lucky only once. OBL and Zawahiri have to be lucky every time.
8. OBL must be constantly moving to deny that one stroke of luck to the US. How serious is the ground position for him? One will get an answer either way---whether his pre-poll message materialises or does not. (28-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
It is just one week before the US Presidential elections. We all know all that we want to know about the two candidates Senators John McCain of the Republican Party and Senator Barrack Obama of the Democratic Party. We also know what the American people think of them and their ideas for the future through the public opinion polls which, without an exception, predict voter approval for Obama and his ideas----whether relating to the economy, the so-called war against terrorism or Iran's nuclear programme.
2.But there is still a missing gap in our knowledge---what Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda think of the two candidates and their proposed policies. On the eve of the Presidential elections of 2004 (on October29,2004), Osama entered the pre-poll scene in the US with a video message to the American people, which poured scorn over American claims regarding the war. Commenting on his message, I wrote:
"As the date of the polls approached, there was feverish speculation as to whether Bush, helped by President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, would produce OBL before the American people like a magician producing a rabbit out of his hat and thereby make Kerry look silly and win a thumping victory. Instead of Bush producing OBL and embarrassing Kerry, it is OBL's spin-masters who have produced him before the voters, making Bush, Kerry and everybody else in the US look silly and confused." (http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers12/paper1155.html)
3. Is OBL planning a similar entry into the poll scene before the Americans vote? It will be out of keeping with him if he does not. Watch out during the days to come. Will he pour scorn over McCain and Bush just as Al Qaeda web sites are already doing? What will he say about the statements of Obama about his determination to hunt for OBL, even if he has to send the US troops into Pakistani territory to catch him---provided he has precise intelligence? Will he talk of what the jihadis in Pakistan and Afghanistan describe as the newly opened third front in the war---- in the Wall Street?
4. Or will the expected message fail to materialise? If it fails to come, that will be more significant than his message if it does come. Failure to materialise would mean that there is something wrong somewhere in the Pashtun belt from where OBL is stated to be operating. The US and the Asif Ali Zardari Government in Pakistan----while pretending to criticise in open each other's counter-terrorism policies---- have been secretly co-operating and co-ordinating their operations even more closely than was the case under Pervez Musharraf---- the US from the air through repeated air strikes by pilotless drones in the two Waziristans and through aerial surveillance and the Pakistan Army and the Frontier Corps on the ground in the Bajaur Agency and the Swat Valley.
5. It is apparent that the stepped up operations both by the Americans and the Pakistanis are not unrelated to the Presidential polls. If the Americans can get a high-value target such as OBL or his No.2 Ayman al-Zawahiri before the polls, it will not only redound to the credit of Bush before he leaves office, but could also benefit McCain, who is desperately trying to avert a seeming rout in the elections.
6. Al Qaeda's foreign volunteers are on the run from village to village, from mosque to mosque and from madrasa to madrasa to protect themselves from the air strikes of the US and Pakistan. The war against terrorism has seen intense air strikes in Afghan territory from the beginning. Since Zardari's meeting with Bush in New York in September, it has been seeing an intense wave of air strikes in Pakistani territory. US planes have been flying across Pakistani air space over the tribal belt as if they are flying in US air space without worrying about the proforma criticism from Pakistani leaders and officials and repeatedly attacking suspected Al Qaeda hide-outs. They have killed many, but not the ones that matter.
7. What stands between the US and OBL or Zawahiri is just luck and a little bit of advance intelligence. Both have eluded the US so far. For air strikes, the US has to be lucky only once. OBL and Zawahiri have to be lucky every time.
8. OBL must be constantly moving to deny that one stroke of luck to the US. How serious is the ground position for him? One will get an answer either way---whether his pre-poll message materialises or does not. (28-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Mexican cartels dominate the Americas
As the most powerful drug trafficking force in the region, Mexican organized crime has spread far beyond the country in search of supplies for drugs to meet US demand, Sam Logan writes for ISN Security Watch.
By Sam Logan for ISN Security Watch
Assassinations related to drug trafficking in Mexico are on pace to pass 4,000 this year. By any count, violence in Mexico is at historical highs, and it is bad for business. Since the end of 2007, when Mexican President Felipe Calderon increased government pressure on organized crime, both the Sinaloa and the Gulf cartels have reached beyond Mexican boundaries to source supplies, secure trafficking routes and kill rivals.
Heavy pressure on Colombian drug-trafficking organizations (DTOs) opened the door for Mexicans to control a greater share of the cocaine supply chain. They now control cocaine routes out of Colombia from Andean ports to wholesale points well inside the United States. But pressure on supply routes and other areas of operation inside Mexico has forced these DTOs abroad. Guatemala, Peru and Argentina are a natural fit - corruption thrives and there is little to no government presence on borders and in many pockets of the country.
As Mexican criminals reach beyond their country to expand control over various drug-trafficking routes in the Americas, they bring a decades old violent brand of business - money or a bullet. Honor and pride push them further to kill anyone who cheats or betrays. Beyond the blood is a trail of dirty money that further corrupts, where Mexican DTOs have been linked to the electoral campaign of President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner in Argentina.
"Mexican drug traffickers go into locations where there are no laws or regulations," Michael Sanders, spokesman for the Drug Enforcement Administration in Washington DC, told ISN Security Watch.
With billions of dollars to spend, little serious competition and a de facto presence in a number of countries, it is not a far stretch to consider that Central and South America have already become their domain.
The release valve
Pressure in Mexico has forced DTOs there into Guatemala, a neighboring Central American country that serves as a release valve, where they operate alternative supply routes with little trouble from the local government.
Guatemalan President Alvaro Colom publicly claimed on 5 September that his office and residential space was bugged by at least seven listening devices. Days later, few were surprised to learn one of his top intelligence officers, Gustavo Solano, was behind the espionage. Colom blamed the breech in security on the powerful influence of organized crime. Analysts believe the information gathered from the listening devices was sold to members of Los Zetas operating in Guatemala.
At least 300 members of Los Zetas operate in eight of Guatemala's 22 departments, according to Guatemalan news reports and a 17 October article in Mexican daily El Universal. The Guatemalan National Police believe there is a concentration of Mexican organized crime along the Guatemalan-Mexico border in the Peten department, on the country's stunted Caribbean coast, and placed in strategic locations on the borders with Honduras and El Salvador.
A 25 March shoot-out in the Guatemalan department of Zacapa left 11 dead, most of them Guatemalan criminals. Authorities believe the Zetas, formerly the military arm of the Gulf Cartel, consolidated power in the Central American country on that day, taking control over an old Gulf Cartel supply route that since at least 2004 has taken advantage of low altitude air space between two mountain ranges with no radar coverage to bring in planes. Most of this activity today is concentrated in the Sayaxche municipality of Peten, conveniently located on the border with Mexico and just miles away from a well-paved Mexican highway that leads north into the Mexican state of Chiapas, another area closely controlled by Los Zetas.
The other focus of Calderon's government offensive, the Sinaloa Cartel, has taken heavy losses due to the presence of thousands of soldiers in the states of Michoacan, Sinaloa and Sonora, the DTO's primary areas of operation.
Members of this cartel - once considered run solely by Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman - in the past few years have branched into the methamphetamine business. The Sinaloa Cartel and other, smaller Mexican DTOs, now supply at least 80 percent of all methamphetamines consumed in the US according to the DEA's Sanders.
To launder proceeds from the sale of cocaine and meth (also known as "crystal" or "ice"), members of the Sinaloa Cartel have worked through front companies in Panama to move money back into Colombia where they are constantly pushing for more control up the supply chain.
"The Mexicans are in Colombia to purchase cocaine directly from coca labs to lower their costs," Roman Ortiz, director of Security and Post-Conflict Studies with Bogota-based Ideas for Peace Foundation (FIP), told ISN Security Watch in a recent phone interview.
Mexican DTOs, likely members of the Sinaloa Cartel, are active in Peru for the same reason, as recent violence in Peru suggests Mexican organized crime has joined with what the Peruvian government calls the Shining Path to spur coca leaf and poppy production in the country's highlands.
Backup in the Andes
By 15 October, a number of alleged Shining Path attacks left 17 people dead, 15 of them soldiers. Analysts in Peru believe these attacks may be related to the presence of Mexican DTOs who have hired back country militants to protect their supply routes out of the mountains, especially in the Ayacucho, Cusco, Huancavelica and Junin provinces of Peru - provinces where the Shining Path has caused trouble in the past.
Peru is considered South America's number two source for cocaine and poppy, the raw material source for heroin. Poppy fields, grown at high altitudes in Peru for opium collection, have been considered an illicit cash crop since 2005, when the Peruvian National Police announced the presence of some 5,000 acres of poppy flowers cultivated at over 15,000 feet in the country's southern highlands.
Between January and October 2008 the National Police registered seizures of 103 kilograms of opium paste, indicating the continued presence of poppy cultivation. Over roughly the same period, Peruvian police seized some 20 tonnes of cocaine, worth over US$2 billion according to Reuters and local reports.
The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime concluded in its 2007 Andean coca survey that production in Peru is up by four percent in Peru, compared to five percent in Bolivia and 27 percent in Colombia.
In early September, Peruvian police seized three tonnes of cocaine hidden in 200 separate bumpers used by boats to prevent damage when docking. At the time of the seizure, a concurrent operation in eight separate points in Lima netted 30 men (some of them Mexican) and Peruvian police believe were working directly for the Sinaloa Cartel, according to a 6 September article in Peruvian daily El Comercio.
South American ephedrine supply
When the Mexican government passed a law on 2 July making all cold medicines that use ephedrine and pseudoephedrine illegal, methamphetamine traffickers, in need of the same precursor chemicals to cook their drugs, were forced to look south.
Not weeks after the Mexican law came into effect, Argentine police arrested on 18 July nine Mexicans and one Argentine who had rented a luxury residence in the Buenos Aires suburbs to cook methamphetamines. A month later, authorities discovered a warehouse where tanks of ephedrine were stored. The meth lab and ephedrine storage tanks were directly linked to the Sinaloa Cartel.
At the top of the Argentine methamphetamine racket was Jesus Martinez Espinoza, an operator with the Sinaloa Cartel who traveled to Argentina to secure a source of ephedrine for methamphetamine production locally in Argentina and abroad in Mexico. He relied on three Argentine men, including Sebastian Forza, who had deep connections in the pharmaceutical industry, as his principal suppliers of ephedrine.
"Argentina can legally import 37 tonnes of ephedrine," the DEA's Sanders told ISN Security Watch, adding, "in 2006 Argentina imported 5 tonnes of ephedrine, and in 2007 Argentina imported 26 tonnes." Still 11 tonnes under the legal limit.
When Martinez's scheme began to unravel in mid July, his local connections had to go. All three Argentine businessmen disappeared on 7 August. Their bodies were found six days later in a ditch outside of Buenos Aires. Forza and the other two were handcuffed and sprayed with bullets. The triple homicide shocked Argentines, who are not accustomed to such assassination-style murders. The news catalyzed a massive investigation that led to Martinez's arrest in Asuncion, Paraguay, just hours before he was to board a flight to Mexico.
Investigations into Forza's past found a long line of bounced checks and deep debt. One of his former associates killed himself. And along with one of the other men allegedly killed by Martinez's men, Forza contributed as much as US$118,000 to the electoral campaign of Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.
Taking over
Over the course of 2008, Mexican organized crime has been tied not only to the triple-homicide in Buenos Aires and the bugging of the office and bedroom of the Guatemalan president, but also to the deaths of five Mexican men, found with their throats slit in Birmingham, Alabama; the kidnapping of a six-year-old boy in Las Vegas, Nevada; and possibly violence in the Peruvian high country.
Between the Sinaloa and Gulf Cartels, Mexican organized crime has proven ties with local operators in a list of countries from the US south through Central and South America, including Guatemala, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, Paraguay and Argentina.
"When considering methamphetamines, Mexican organized crime is the strongest in the region," Sanders said, pointing out that the countries in Latin America with relaxed chemical import regulations will likely become targets for Mexican DTOs in the future.
"South America has become increasingly part of [Mexico's] hunting grounds, and Guatemala is already deeply involved," Bruce Bagley, chairman of the Department of International Studies at the University of Miami, told ISN Security Watch adding, "these guys are not deterred by borders."
The only other criminal organization that has had this breadth of reach and disregard for national sovereignty was the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Billions more in profits, and potentially thousands more operatives with no political ideology, poise Mexican drug traffickers to become the region's next major security challenge.
Today these criminal groups represent the number one threat to national security in Mexico. Tomorrow, other countries such as Guatemala, Peru and Argentina may make the same claim.
Sam Logan is an investigative journalist who has reported on security, energy, politics, economics, organized crime, terrorism and black markets in Latin America since 1999. He is a senior writer for ISN Security Watch and has a book on organized crime and immigration forthcoming from Hyperion in Spring, 2009.
By Sam Logan for ISN Security Watch
Assassinations related to drug trafficking in Mexico are on pace to pass 4,000 this year. By any count, violence in Mexico is at historical highs, and it is bad for business. Since the end of 2007, when Mexican President Felipe Calderon increased government pressure on organized crime, both the Sinaloa and the Gulf cartels have reached beyond Mexican boundaries to source supplies, secure trafficking routes and kill rivals.
Heavy pressure on Colombian drug-trafficking organizations (DTOs) opened the door for Mexicans to control a greater share of the cocaine supply chain. They now control cocaine routes out of Colombia from Andean ports to wholesale points well inside the United States. But pressure on supply routes and other areas of operation inside Mexico has forced these DTOs abroad. Guatemala, Peru and Argentina are a natural fit - corruption thrives and there is little to no government presence on borders and in many pockets of the country.
As Mexican criminals reach beyond their country to expand control over various drug-trafficking routes in the Americas, they bring a decades old violent brand of business - money or a bullet. Honor and pride push them further to kill anyone who cheats or betrays. Beyond the blood is a trail of dirty money that further corrupts, where Mexican DTOs have been linked to the electoral campaign of President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner in Argentina.
"Mexican drug traffickers go into locations where there are no laws or regulations," Michael Sanders, spokesman for the Drug Enforcement Administration in Washington DC, told ISN Security Watch.
With billions of dollars to spend, little serious competition and a de facto presence in a number of countries, it is not a far stretch to consider that Central and South America have already become their domain.
The release valve
Pressure in Mexico has forced DTOs there into Guatemala, a neighboring Central American country that serves as a release valve, where they operate alternative supply routes with little trouble from the local government.
Guatemalan President Alvaro Colom publicly claimed on 5 September that his office and residential space was bugged by at least seven listening devices. Days later, few were surprised to learn one of his top intelligence officers, Gustavo Solano, was behind the espionage. Colom blamed the breech in security on the powerful influence of organized crime. Analysts believe the information gathered from the listening devices was sold to members of Los Zetas operating in Guatemala.
At least 300 members of Los Zetas operate in eight of Guatemala's 22 departments, according to Guatemalan news reports and a 17 October article in Mexican daily El Universal. The Guatemalan National Police believe there is a concentration of Mexican organized crime along the Guatemalan-Mexico border in the Peten department, on the country's stunted Caribbean coast, and placed in strategic locations on the borders with Honduras and El Salvador.
A 25 March shoot-out in the Guatemalan department of Zacapa left 11 dead, most of them Guatemalan criminals. Authorities believe the Zetas, formerly the military arm of the Gulf Cartel, consolidated power in the Central American country on that day, taking control over an old Gulf Cartel supply route that since at least 2004 has taken advantage of low altitude air space between two mountain ranges with no radar coverage to bring in planes. Most of this activity today is concentrated in the Sayaxche municipality of Peten, conveniently located on the border with Mexico and just miles away from a well-paved Mexican highway that leads north into the Mexican state of Chiapas, another area closely controlled by Los Zetas.
The other focus of Calderon's government offensive, the Sinaloa Cartel, has taken heavy losses due to the presence of thousands of soldiers in the states of Michoacan, Sinaloa and Sonora, the DTO's primary areas of operation.
Members of this cartel - once considered run solely by Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman - in the past few years have branched into the methamphetamine business. The Sinaloa Cartel and other, smaller Mexican DTOs, now supply at least 80 percent of all methamphetamines consumed in the US according to the DEA's Sanders.
To launder proceeds from the sale of cocaine and meth (also known as "crystal" or "ice"), members of the Sinaloa Cartel have worked through front companies in Panama to move money back into Colombia where they are constantly pushing for more control up the supply chain.
"The Mexicans are in Colombia to purchase cocaine directly from coca labs to lower their costs," Roman Ortiz, director of Security and Post-Conflict Studies with Bogota-based Ideas for Peace Foundation (FIP), told ISN Security Watch in a recent phone interview.
Mexican DTOs, likely members of the Sinaloa Cartel, are active in Peru for the same reason, as recent violence in Peru suggests Mexican organized crime has joined with what the Peruvian government calls the Shining Path to spur coca leaf and poppy production in the country's highlands.
Backup in the Andes
By 15 October, a number of alleged Shining Path attacks left 17 people dead, 15 of them soldiers. Analysts in Peru believe these attacks may be related to the presence of Mexican DTOs who have hired back country militants to protect their supply routes out of the mountains, especially in the Ayacucho, Cusco, Huancavelica and Junin provinces of Peru - provinces where the Shining Path has caused trouble in the past.
Peru is considered South America's number two source for cocaine and poppy, the raw material source for heroin. Poppy fields, grown at high altitudes in Peru for opium collection, have been considered an illicit cash crop since 2005, when the Peruvian National Police announced the presence of some 5,000 acres of poppy flowers cultivated at over 15,000 feet in the country's southern highlands.
Between January and October 2008 the National Police registered seizures of 103 kilograms of opium paste, indicating the continued presence of poppy cultivation. Over roughly the same period, Peruvian police seized some 20 tonnes of cocaine, worth over US$2 billion according to Reuters and local reports.
The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime concluded in its 2007 Andean coca survey that production in Peru is up by four percent in Peru, compared to five percent in Bolivia and 27 percent in Colombia.
In early September, Peruvian police seized three tonnes of cocaine hidden in 200 separate bumpers used by boats to prevent damage when docking. At the time of the seizure, a concurrent operation in eight separate points in Lima netted 30 men (some of them Mexican) and Peruvian police believe were working directly for the Sinaloa Cartel, according to a 6 September article in Peruvian daily El Comercio.
South American ephedrine supply
When the Mexican government passed a law on 2 July making all cold medicines that use ephedrine and pseudoephedrine illegal, methamphetamine traffickers, in need of the same precursor chemicals to cook their drugs, were forced to look south.
Not weeks after the Mexican law came into effect, Argentine police arrested on 18 July nine Mexicans and one Argentine who had rented a luxury residence in the Buenos Aires suburbs to cook methamphetamines. A month later, authorities discovered a warehouse where tanks of ephedrine were stored. The meth lab and ephedrine storage tanks were directly linked to the Sinaloa Cartel.
At the top of the Argentine methamphetamine racket was Jesus Martinez Espinoza, an operator with the Sinaloa Cartel who traveled to Argentina to secure a source of ephedrine for methamphetamine production locally in Argentina and abroad in Mexico. He relied on three Argentine men, including Sebastian Forza, who had deep connections in the pharmaceutical industry, as his principal suppliers of ephedrine.
"Argentina can legally import 37 tonnes of ephedrine," the DEA's Sanders told ISN Security Watch, adding, "in 2006 Argentina imported 5 tonnes of ephedrine, and in 2007 Argentina imported 26 tonnes." Still 11 tonnes under the legal limit.
When Martinez's scheme began to unravel in mid July, his local connections had to go. All three Argentine businessmen disappeared on 7 August. Their bodies were found six days later in a ditch outside of Buenos Aires. Forza and the other two were handcuffed and sprayed with bullets. The triple homicide shocked Argentines, who are not accustomed to such assassination-style murders. The news catalyzed a massive investigation that led to Martinez's arrest in Asuncion, Paraguay, just hours before he was to board a flight to Mexico.
Investigations into Forza's past found a long line of bounced checks and deep debt. One of his former associates killed himself. And along with one of the other men allegedly killed by Martinez's men, Forza contributed as much as US$118,000 to the electoral campaign of Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.
Taking over
Over the course of 2008, Mexican organized crime has been tied not only to the triple-homicide in Buenos Aires and the bugging of the office and bedroom of the Guatemalan president, but also to the deaths of five Mexican men, found with their throats slit in Birmingham, Alabama; the kidnapping of a six-year-old boy in Las Vegas, Nevada; and possibly violence in the Peruvian high country.
Between the Sinaloa and Gulf Cartels, Mexican organized crime has proven ties with local operators in a list of countries from the US south through Central and South America, including Guatemala, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, Paraguay and Argentina.
"When considering methamphetamines, Mexican organized crime is the strongest in the region," Sanders said, pointing out that the countries in Latin America with relaxed chemical import regulations will likely become targets for Mexican DTOs in the future.
"South America has become increasingly part of [Mexico's] hunting grounds, and Guatemala is already deeply involved," Bruce Bagley, chairman of the Department of International Studies at the University of Miami, told ISN Security Watch adding, "these guys are not deterred by borders."
The only other criminal organization that has had this breadth of reach and disregard for national sovereignty was the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Billions more in profits, and potentially thousands more operatives with no political ideology, poise Mexican drug traffickers to become the region's next major security challenge.
Today these criminal groups represent the number one threat to national security in Mexico. Tomorrow, other countries such as Guatemala, Peru and Argentina may make the same claim.
Sam Logan is an investigative journalist who has reported on security, energy, politics, economics, organized crime, terrorism and black markets in Latin America since 1999. He is a senior writer for ISN Security Watch and has a book on organized crime and immigration forthcoming from Hyperion in Spring, 2009.
Emperor Berlusconi
27 Oct 2008
Basking in the glow of surging approval levels and consolidating power at a tremendous rate, is Silvio Berlusconi eyeing a kind of imperial prime ministership? Eric Lyman writes for ISN Security Watch.
By Eric J Lyman in Rome for ISN Security Watch
The best estimates are that Italy's Silvio Berlusconi has seen his personal fortune diminish by at least US$2.5 billion since the world financial crisis intensified in July. But the crisis is also helping him consolidate power in a way that money can't buy.
Berlusconi, who started his fourth stint as prime minister in May, is still one of the 100 wealthiest people on the planet. The billionaire's business empire includes three of the country's seven national television networks, a leading publishing company, a major bank, a film production and distribution company and AC Milan, a top-league football club.
Berlusconi's businesses are not immune to the world economic climate. But as the world - and the Italian - economy groans under the weight of collapsing banks, tumbling markets and eroding consumer confidence, Berlusconi has cultivated his image as the calm leader, checking into an Umbrian health spa, joking with television reporters and flying off to Washington for a largely social call with his old friend, US President George W Bush.
It's working: The media tycoon's approval levels have soared, approaching 70 percent, a level not seen since the middle of his previous term, nearly four years ago - an astonishing level during a recession and in a country as polarized as in Italy.
"Frankly, it's embarrassing," Berlusconi gushed about his sky-high approval levels to Il Giornale, the Milan-based newspaper his family owns.
Berlusconi and his government have been quick to use the currency his approval levels provide, increasing the government's power over the economy to levels not seen in a generation.
Since mid-summer, the government has changed laws to make Berlusconi - long hounded by legal problems - immune from criminal prosecution; it has taken steps to limit the investigatory power of the judiciary, it has made executive decrees more powerful and easier to declare; it has deployed troops to the trash-filled streets of Naples; limited parliamentary overview; and taken an important role in the operations and eventual sale of beleaguered flagship air carrier Alitalia. Another move being mulled would dramatically change the rules that govern corporate takeovers, making it more difficult for foreign companies to take over Italian firms.
Notwithstanding a major street march in the capital over the weekend, political opposition to the government's various moves has been minimal.
"People love Berlusconi right now because he is the calm and collected leader of the state, and they believe that in this climate only the state can help them," Maria Rossi, co-director of the polling firm Opinioni, told ISN Security Watch.
The 72-year-old leader has not been shy about making that case. "State aid, which until recently was seen as a sin, has now become absolutely essential," Berlusconi declared in a recent televised news conference.
That may seem to be an unlikely turn for a man who made billions and rose to political power in the free market. But Berlusconi's critics have long charged that the charismatic media tycoon is most comfortable when he can selectively use the state's power to direct the market to act as he would like.
The situation involving Alitalia is a good example: The government suspended antitrust rules, extended loan repayment deadlines and delivered the troubled airline to a group of wealthy associates set to pick a partner from among Europe's three largest flagship carriers, Air France-KLM, Luftansa and British Airways. Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti pronounced the process a triumph of "healthy" state intervention.
Most observers see the current debate in Italy as one over the role of the state in the country's economy, which is mostly accurate. But there's a second battle taking place, one that could have very long-range implications, as most of the power the government consolidates is ending up in the hands of one man.
In other words, Italians could discover that by the end of the current government's term the prime minister's office has become a kind of hybrid, a mix between the parliamentary state the Italian Constitution requires and a centralized presidential-style government Berlusconi says he admires.
The end result could be a kind of "imperial prime ministership," to borrow from Arthur Schlesinger Jr, the late Pulitzer Prize-winning historian. In 1973, Schlesinger famously accused former US president Richard M Nixon of crafting a kind of "imperial presidency" because of his efforts to nefariously shape the government to serve his purposes.
Nixon's government, of course, ended in disgrace. The jury is still out in Italy.
Eric J Lyman is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in Italy. He is based in Rome.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author only, not the International Relations and Security Network (ISN).
Free market ideology melts down
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Special-Reports/A-New-Economic-Order/Editorial
by Dean Baker
The near collapse of the world banking system and the internationally coordinated government rescue should put to end illusions about the unfettered market. Over the last three decades there has been an enormous upward redistribution of income in the United States and many other countries. This redistribution of income was justified as being the result of the efficient working of the free market. After this massive government intervention to rescue the banks from their own actions, such claims are no longer plausible.
The financial sector stands out as being both at the center of free market ideology as well as the leading engine of inequality in the economy. The United States has substantially deregulated its financial industry in the last three decades. It eliminated barriers that prevented firms from crossing traditional boundaries between areas like investment and commercial banking or banking and insurance. It also eased restrictions on leverage and relied to a substantial degree on self-regulation.
This environment proved to be very profitable for the financial industry. Its share of corporate profits soared, crossing 30 percent at its peak in 2004. High level executives in the sector were extraordinarily well-paid, with salaries and bonuses often running into the tens of millions of dollars, even for those who were still a level or two below the top of the corporate hierarchy.
These high salaries set a benchmark for top executives in other industries. Wall Street pay scales even infected pay structures outside of the corporate world, leading to outsized paychecks for top officers in universities, hospitals and even private charities. With more money going to the top, there was less for those at the middle and bottom. Over the last three decades, the real wage of a typical worker in the United States has barely increased.
This upward redistribution could possibly be justified if it were the result of the natural workings of the market. However, the events of the last few weeks show that this was not the case. Essentially, the financial industry was making huge bets, not with its own money but essentially with the government’s money.
As long as the industry won their bets, they could pretend that they were acting on their own and had no need of the government. However, when they lost big, as they did with the collapse of the housing bubble, they had no choice but to go running to the government for help. Wall Street executives, who might complain about a government support check of a few thousand dollars for an unemployed single mother, suddenly were demanding hundreds of billions of dollars from the government to keep their banks from collapsing.
There are two obvious lessons from this episode.
The first is that the enormous wealth that many top executives in the financial sector were able to accumulate had less to do with their mastery of finance than their ability to get into positions where they could extract rents from the economy. These people clearly did not understand the enormous costs that their risky investments and mistakes have imposed on the economy and society.
The second lesson is that a strong role for the government is essential in the shaping of markets. The key assumption behind deregulation was that sophisticated actors in the financial sector would effectively police each other, punishing firms that did not follow sound lending practices.
It turns out that many of the most sophisticated actors had no understanding of what was going on in either the industry or the economy. The collapse of the housing bubble and the over-leveraged state of the major financial firms caught the industry by complete surprise.
Going forward, it is clear that far more careful regulation will be needed. Governments will have to act to ensure that banks do not again become highly leveraged and assume such enormous levels of risk. Central banks will also be required to view asset bubbles as a serious problem. The growth and subsequent collapse of the housing bubble is at the core of this crisis.
Finally, this crisis should cause people to discard the idea that the distribution of income is ever determined by the natural workings of the market. It is determined first and foremost by the structure of social institutions. In the United States, these structures were deliberately shaped in a way to cause income to flow upward. There is no reason that the institutional structures cannot be designed to lead to more broadly based prosperity, which is likely also to result in far better economic outcomes.
Dean Baker is the co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR). He is the author of The Conservative Nanny State: How the Wealthy Use the Government to Stay Rich and Get Richer. He also has a blog on the American Prospect website, "Beat the Press," where he discusses the media's coverage of economic issues.
by Dean Baker
The near collapse of the world banking system and the internationally coordinated government rescue should put to end illusions about the unfettered market. Over the last three decades there has been an enormous upward redistribution of income in the United States and many other countries. This redistribution of income was justified as being the result of the efficient working of the free market. After this massive government intervention to rescue the banks from their own actions, such claims are no longer plausible.
The financial sector stands out as being both at the center of free market ideology as well as the leading engine of inequality in the economy. The United States has substantially deregulated its financial industry in the last three decades. It eliminated barriers that prevented firms from crossing traditional boundaries between areas like investment and commercial banking or banking and insurance. It also eased restrictions on leverage and relied to a substantial degree on self-regulation.
This environment proved to be very profitable for the financial industry. Its share of corporate profits soared, crossing 30 percent at its peak in 2004. High level executives in the sector were extraordinarily well-paid, with salaries and bonuses often running into the tens of millions of dollars, even for those who were still a level or two below the top of the corporate hierarchy.
These high salaries set a benchmark for top executives in other industries. Wall Street pay scales even infected pay structures outside of the corporate world, leading to outsized paychecks for top officers in universities, hospitals and even private charities. With more money going to the top, there was less for those at the middle and bottom. Over the last three decades, the real wage of a typical worker in the United States has barely increased.
This upward redistribution could possibly be justified if it were the result of the natural workings of the market. However, the events of the last few weeks show that this was not the case. Essentially, the financial industry was making huge bets, not with its own money but essentially with the government’s money.
As long as the industry won their bets, they could pretend that they were acting on their own and had no need of the government. However, when they lost big, as they did with the collapse of the housing bubble, they had no choice but to go running to the government for help. Wall Street executives, who might complain about a government support check of a few thousand dollars for an unemployed single mother, suddenly were demanding hundreds of billions of dollars from the government to keep their banks from collapsing.
There are two obvious lessons from this episode.
The first is that the enormous wealth that many top executives in the financial sector were able to accumulate had less to do with their mastery of finance than their ability to get into positions where they could extract rents from the economy. These people clearly did not understand the enormous costs that their risky investments and mistakes have imposed on the economy and society.
The second lesson is that a strong role for the government is essential in the shaping of markets. The key assumption behind deregulation was that sophisticated actors in the financial sector would effectively police each other, punishing firms that did not follow sound lending practices.
It turns out that many of the most sophisticated actors had no understanding of what was going on in either the industry or the economy. The collapse of the housing bubble and the over-leveraged state of the major financial firms caught the industry by complete surprise.
Going forward, it is clear that far more careful regulation will be needed. Governments will have to act to ensure that banks do not again become highly leveraged and assume such enormous levels of risk. Central banks will also be required to view asset bubbles as a serious problem. The growth and subsequent collapse of the housing bubble is at the core of this crisis.
Finally, this crisis should cause people to discard the idea that the distribution of income is ever determined by the natural workings of the market. It is determined first and foremost by the structure of social institutions. In the United States, these structures were deliberately shaped in a way to cause income to flow upward. There is no reason that the institutional structures cannot be designed to lead to more broadly based prosperity, which is likely also to result in far better economic outcomes.
Dean Baker is the co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR). He is the author of The Conservative Nanny State: How the Wealthy Use the Government to Stay Rich and Get Richer. He also has a blog on the American Prospect website, "Beat the Press," where he discusses the media's coverage of economic issues.
Strong states hurt international institutions
Source: SWISSINFO.CH
Ten years ago, the rise in power of international justice rattled the impunity of the world's dictators, but realpolitik has left institutions constrained.
That confidence has been broken by the return of state force, Pierre Hazan, a Geneva-based specialist in international justice, tells swissinfo.
In 1998, when 120 states adopted the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), the days of the dictator seemed numbered.
The International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia indicted the Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic, Britain arrested former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet and Belgium adopted a law of universal jurisdiction that covered tyrants and their accomplices while in power or in retirement.
But times have changed, says Hazan, author of "Judge War, Judge History" (Juger la guerre, juger l'Histoire), a book on international justice published by University Presses of France.
swissinfo: With the ICC's desire to arrest Omar al-Bashir, the Sudanese president, is this the court's moment of truth?
Pierre Hazan: It's in any case the first time that the ICC prosecutor has been keen to indict a sitting president, a trial that set off a diplomatic shockwave.
It's necessary in fact to know that Sudan has not signed the United Nations treaty that founded the ICC. It's on the request of France and Britain that the UN Security Council transmitted the Darfur dossier to the ICC.
After that, the members of the Arab League and the African Union expressed reluctance. But more surprisingly, the trial's instigator, France, envisions now resorting to a possibility written in the ICC statutes to suspend the court's action in this case – and this in the name of looking for peace in Sudan.
swissinfo: In this situation, is it emblematic of the difficulties facing the ICC?
P.H.: At the end of the 1990s, it seemed that the law was going to play a determining role in international relations – an all-powerful law that materialised with the ICC. But today, we have a very different context. We are seeing a strong resurgence of states in foreign policy to the detriment of multilateral institutions. International law is largely contested, including the Geneva Conventions.
More than before, states consider international law a legal arm they can use to further their interests at the time. It's particularly true with the Sudanese case.
Pierre Hazan (swissinfo)swissinfo: Is the ICC lacking legitimacy?
P.H.: It was only lacking it for some years, while the statutes of the ICC were adopted by more than 60 countries [the threshold needed for them to be put into effect]. The success that no one would have believed possible has quickly fed a strong mobilisation in civil society in the north as in the south.
But at the same time, the September 11 attacks provoked a split and a new international configuration, unfavourable to the development of an independent international justice.
swissinfo: Is the ICC the best instrument anyway for ending dictatorial impunity?
P.H.: The ICC doesn't have such power. Since it can't intervene in every country, the number of dictators remains rather large. The means of the court are limited. Its effectiveness is equally hindered by the absence of an international police at its disposal. The ICC depends on the countries involved. It wouldn't be able to arrest indicted parties, much less heads of state, political leaders or military.
This throws back the utopia that surrounded the creation of this court – the all-powerful law. This waiting for public opinion, civil society and victims seems completely disproportionate right now.
swissinfo: Can the ICC indict any dictator or only those who have committed mass killings?
P.H.: The court's domain is in regard to those charged with war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. Calling someone a dictator per se isn't sufficient for the ICC to intervene.
swissinfo: Can the ICC eventually free itself of state guardianship?
P.H.: It would be necessary for the court to demonstrate the legitimacy of its actions to the concerned parties. The ICC, which is based on The Hague, must create a link and prove its methodology in regards to populations plunged in war and misery and who find themselves thousands of kilometres from the Netherlands. This link is extremely complicated to for a legal bureaucracy in a northern country to establish.
swissinfo-interview: Frédéric Burnand in Geneva
Ten years ago, the rise in power of international justice rattled the impunity of the world's dictators, but realpolitik has left institutions constrained.
That confidence has been broken by the return of state force, Pierre Hazan, a Geneva-based specialist in international justice, tells swissinfo.
In 1998, when 120 states adopted the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), the days of the dictator seemed numbered.
The International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia indicted the Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic, Britain arrested former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet and Belgium adopted a law of universal jurisdiction that covered tyrants and their accomplices while in power or in retirement.
But times have changed, says Hazan, author of "Judge War, Judge History" (Juger la guerre, juger l'Histoire), a book on international justice published by University Presses of France.
swissinfo: With the ICC's desire to arrest Omar al-Bashir, the Sudanese president, is this the court's moment of truth?
Pierre Hazan: It's in any case the first time that the ICC prosecutor has been keen to indict a sitting president, a trial that set off a diplomatic shockwave.
It's necessary in fact to know that Sudan has not signed the United Nations treaty that founded the ICC. It's on the request of France and Britain that the UN Security Council transmitted the Darfur dossier to the ICC.
After that, the members of the Arab League and the African Union expressed reluctance. But more surprisingly, the trial's instigator, France, envisions now resorting to a possibility written in the ICC statutes to suspend the court's action in this case – and this in the name of looking for peace in Sudan.
swissinfo: In this situation, is it emblematic of the difficulties facing the ICC?
P.H.: At the end of the 1990s, it seemed that the law was going to play a determining role in international relations – an all-powerful law that materialised with the ICC. But today, we have a very different context. We are seeing a strong resurgence of states in foreign policy to the detriment of multilateral institutions. International law is largely contested, including the Geneva Conventions.
More than before, states consider international law a legal arm they can use to further their interests at the time. It's particularly true with the Sudanese case.
Pierre Hazan (swissinfo)swissinfo: Is the ICC lacking legitimacy?
P.H.: It was only lacking it for some years, while the statutes of the ICC were adopted by more than 60 countries [the threshold needed for them to be put into effect]. The success that no one would have believed possible has quickly fed a strong mobilisation in civil society in the north as in the south.
But at the same time, the September 11 attacks provoked a split and a new international configuration, unfavourable to the development of an independent international justice.
swissinfo: Is the ICC the best instrument anyway for ending dictatorial impunity?
P.H.: The ICC doesn't have such power. Since it can't intervene in every country, the number of dictators remains rather large. The means of the court are limited. Its effectiveness is equally hindered by the absence of an international police at its disposal. The ICC depends on the countries involved. It wouldn't be able to arrest indicted parties, much less heads of state, political leaders or military.
This throws back the utopia that surrounded the creation of this court – the all-powerful law. This waiting for public opinion, civil society and victims seems completely disproportionate right now.
swissinfo: Can the ICC indict any dictator or only those who have committed mass killings?
P.H.: The court's domain is in regard to those charged with war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. Calling someone a dictator per se isn't sufficient for the ICC to intervene.
swissinfo: Can the ICC eventually free itself of state guardianship?
P.H.: It would be necessary for the court to demonstrate the legitimacy of its actions to the concerned parties. The ICC, which is based on The Hague, must create a link and prove its methodology in regards to populations plunged in war and misery and who find themselves thousands of kilometres from the Netherlands. This link is extremely complicated to for a legal bureaucracy in a northern country to establish.
swissinfo-interview: Frédéric Burnand in Geneva
The USAF offers $50M for Cyber Research. We could do it for a lot less.
http://intelfusion.net/wordpress/?p=438
A new US Air Force Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) offers approximately $49.9 million dollars between 2009 and 2012 for research papers that address the following topic description:
Proactively defend cyberspace by anticipating and avoiding threats through understanding the cyber situation, predicting adversarial actions, assessing potential impacts, and by implementing deterrence and effects based defensive methodologies. Detect and defeat threats and protect information systems by engagement and influence through defensive mechanisms employing such methods as adversary denial and deception. Adaptively maintain, organize, and automatically regenerate and reconstitute resources to ensure continued mission operations.
Considering the world-wide financial crisis that’s going on, perhaps some of my readers who are inside the Beltway will let the “powers-that-be” know that the Project Grey Goose team could do a better job faster, and for a LOT less.
A new US Air Force Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) offers approximately $49.9 million dollars between 2009 and 2012 for research papers that address the following topic description:
Proactively defend cyberspace by anticipating and avoiding threats through understanding the cyber situation, predicting adversarial actions, assessing potential impacts, and by implementing deterrence and effects based defensive methodologies. Detect and defeat threats and protect information systems by engagement and influence through defensive mechanisms employing such methods as adversary denial and deception. Adaptively maintain, organize, and automatically regenerate and reconstitute resources to ensure continued mission operations.
Considering the world-wide financial crisis that’s going on, perhaps some of my readers who are inside the Beltway will let the “powers-that-be” know that the Project Grey Goose team could do a better job faster, and for a LOT less.
INDIA: IB against setting up seperate Intelligence wing by CRPF
Deccan Chronicle
New Delhi, Oct. 27: The Intelligence Bureau is up in arms over the CRPF’s move to create its own intelligence network. The Centre has given its nod for the creation of a separate intelligence wing within the CRPF, which will gather and share intelligence information to tackle insurgency and other internal security threats in the country. Sources said that the decision has come after stiff opposition from the Intelligence Bureau which is now fearing that its role will be limited since the CRPF, which is the largest para-military force, has a deeper penetration and wide network across states as compared to the IB.
The new role will allow the CRPF to share intelligence information with state intelligence units and CID besides offering preventive steps. The IB’s role so far has been limited to sending alerts about possible communal and terror attacks and other aspects impacting internal security without actively countering threats to avert them.
New Delhi, Oct. 27: The Intelligence Bureau is up in arms over the CRPF’s move to create its own intelligence network. The Centre has given its nod for the creation of a separate intelligence wing within the CRPF, which will gather and share intelligence information to tackle insurgency and other internal security threats in the country. Sources said that the decision has come after stiff opposition from the Intelligence Bureau which is now fearing that its role will be limited since the CRPF, which is the largest para-military force, has a deeper penetration and wide network across states as compared to the IB.
The new role will allow the CRPF to share intelligence information with state intelligence units and CID besides offering preventive steps. The IB’s role so far has been limited to sending alerts about possible communal and terror attacks and other aspects impacting internal security without actively countering threats to avert them.
October 26, 2008
HUJI’S Political Incarnation Unmasks Caretaker Government of Bangladesh
Guest Column by Dr. Anand Kumar
The decision of the Bangladesh caretaker government to allow the most notorious terror outfit of that country to register as a political party has brought out a very different dimension of its character. The Fakharuddin Ahmed led interim government has remained in power for nearly two years claiming to be working for political reforms. It also launched a crackdown against corruption. But its latest decision has nullified all that was done by it and in fact has raised questions about its motives behind such actions.
Even in the past, reports indicated that the caretaker government was soft on Islamist groups. Though, it executed six top leaders of the Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and controlled extremist violence in the country, it did not take any serious action which could have weakened such elements. It was alleged that it hurriedly executed six JMB leaders because they wanted to reveal the names of patrons and financiers of the organization.
Earlier, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) of Bangladesh had arrested one of the country's top Islamist militant leaders, Mufti Abdul Hannan in Dhaka on October 1, 2005. Hannan, who also has links to international militant groups, is the operation commander of the Bangladesh chapter of the HUJI. Speaking to media at the RAB office in Dhaka, Hannan stated that he has been staying in the country after the former home minister and later the commerce minister, Altaf Hossain Choudhury, assured him of "no fear" in staying in the country. He also stated that he did not flee the country because of this assurance. He also told the court that some influential ministers of the government had assured him that he would be exempted from the charge of attempting to kill Sheikh Hasina. No action, so far has been taken against either Mufti Hannan or the minister. The caretaker government feared that the disclosures of similar kind by the JMB leaders would embarrass them further and expose their real face.
The caretaker government after taking over launched a crackdown against corruption. In this crackdown, the major action was taken against the two mainstream political parties- the BNP and Awami League. Jamaat-e-Islami, the leading Islamist Party in Bangladesh was largely left untouched. Top leaders of BNP and Awami League were arrested first, whereas Matiur Rahman Nizami, the Jamaat Ameer was arrested only due to sustained media pressure. Nizami was also released quickly.
Recently, when on October 6, 2008 an arrest warrant was issued against Jamaat General Secretary, Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mojahid for his involvement in Barakpuria coal mine corruption case, the government claimed that he was absconding. But surprisingly, the same absconding Jamaat leader was present in talks with the government on October 15, 2008. Mojahid has also been attending various other programmes in Dhaka. Besides, he attended meetings in Satkhira on October 10 and 11. This clearly shows the soft approach, the government has adopted towards the Islamic parties.
The caretaker government was completely unmasked when it allowed the most notorious Islamist terror group of Bangladesh to register as a political party. Huji was formed by a group of Afghan war veterans under the leadership of Sheikh Abdus Salam at a press conference at the National Press Club, Dhaka on April 30, 1992. Huji built up a network across madrasas. It organized arms training for madrasa students in hilly forest areas. The trained youths were subsequently sent to Afghanistan to participate in the war against the Soviet Union. HuJi operatives were dispatched to Myanmar as well to fight for Rohingya militants against the Myanmar’s army.
Operation of Huji under Different Names
Huji has operated in Bangladesh under different names. After Huji was listed as a terrorist organization internationally its leaders formed a political party named Islamic Gono Andolon. During the BNP-led four-party alliance rule, organizational activities of Gono Andolon were carried out secretly. It also made deliberate attempt to keep it separate from the militant campaign of Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh of that time.
Gono Andolon was renamed Sacheton Islami Janata on August 19, 2006 following an understanding with the then government that allowed the organization to work out in the open. They have been trying to get permission since the caretaker administration took over in January last year, and were finally successful in May 2008. Following this the Islamic Democratic Party (IDP) was floated on May 18, 2008 and according to Kazi Azizul Huq, advisor to the newborn organization also consists of 200 to 300 Afghan War veterans.
Attempt of Huji to Disguise its Radical Character
The operations commander of Huji, Muft Hannan is behind bars after his arrest in 2005. The other top leaders of HUJI who are now with Islamic Democratic Party are trying to blame Mufti Hannan and Abdur Rouf for all the terror activities of HUJI. They are trying to present Mufti Hannan as a leader of a splintered group of HUJI. They say that Hannan was expelled from the organization in 1998.
HUJI has tried to carefully disguise its radical character. Azizul Huq says, "Our goal is to run the country as per the Charter of Medina that gives equal rights to all citizens irrespective of religion and ethnicity." He also informed that they want to introduce Shariah (the body of Islamic religious law) only for the Muslims. Other religious and ethnic minorities may follow the existing law of the land and norms of their communities.
HUJI claims that the government has given it permission to register on the condition that it will not use violence for achieving its objective of implementing Shariah. This also means that the caretaker government is not against implementing Shariah if it is done peacefully. This approach is very similar to Jamaat’s approach.
Huji, a Radical Extremist and Terrorist Outfit
The leaders of HUJI claim that the government gave them permission to register after no proof was found against them. But HUJI has been a banned terror outfit in Bangladesh since October 2005. The US has declared it as a foreign terrorist organization. Even the Bangladesh caretaker government is quite aware of the activities of HUJI. In early 2008, it contemplated taking help of the Indian government to question two HUJI terrorists, Anisul Mursalin and Mahibbul Muttakin lodged in Tihar jail of New Delhi. These terrorists hailing from Faridpur in Bangladesh have been in jail since the Indian police arrested them at the Delhi railway station on February 26, 2006 with 3 kg of high-powered explosive RDX, two electronic detonators and two pistols. In the border meeting of BSF-BDR, on October 10, 2008 at the Dawki-Tambil border outpost in eastern Meghalaya BDR chief, Major General Shakil Ahmed admitted that HUJI was a threat to both Bangladesh and India.
Seven HUJI cadres were killed by Jat Regiment troops at Bashbari in lower Assam’s Dhubri district on September 26, 2008. This module was on their way to Guwahati where they were supposed to meet another module of the same group. Their plan was to carry out serial blasts in Guwahati.
Though the HUJI’s plan to carry out serial blasts in Guwahati was foiled, it has been successful in a similar operation in Agartala. Reports have indicated that the Agartala blasts were carried out by HUJI in collaboration with All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF). The cadres of ATTF were trained in Moximghat in Chittagong by the Bangladeshi military intelligence. This was revealed during the interrogation of a recently arrested Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO) leader by the West Bengal intelligence, who was trained in the same camp.
HUJI has been active in Agartala in the past. Tripura police records reveal that six Bangladeshi nationals with ISI links have been arrested in the state since March 2008. Subsequently, three Bangladeshi nationals were also arrested in connection with serial blasts in Agartala taking their numbers to nine. One of the arrested HUJI cadres, Mamun Mian alias Mafizur Rahman was allegedly having links with Shahid Choudhury, a senior member in the Manik Sarkar Cabinet, who had to resign on April 17, 2008 because of this.
HUJI cadres are being arrested at regular intervals from India and Bangladesh. On October 14, 2008 Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) of Bangladesh arrested four activists of Huji in Khalishpur area. They are Mizanur Rahman Tushar, Mujahidul Islam, Omar, and Yusuf Al Helal. During their interrogation it was revealed that Tushar joined the Islamist outfit in 2003 and took training at Kodala forest in Chittagong. He was arrested in Chittagong in 2004 and went into hiding after getting bail from the court. The militants also told RAB during interrogation that they had a plan to snatch Mufti Abdul Hannan from custody.
It’s a complete travesty of truth to say that HUJI has not been involved in terror activities and there are no proofs against it. In fact, the decision of the caretaker government only confirms its soft approach towards the Islamist political parties. Is it that the seems the caretaker government under the garb of political reform only wants to weaken the two mainstream political parties so that Islamist parties like Jamaat and terror groups like HUJI could be presented as viable alternatives?
HUJI in its new incarnation as IDP will form a full committee through a national convention before the ninth parliamentary election. Azizul Haque said, "We are preparing for registration on meeting the conditions specified in the application form. At the same time, we are working to have organizational structures for district and upazila levels." Huji plans to have a token participation in forthcoming December 18 election if possible in alliance with other small parties. The political face of HUJI will enable it to create structures as sub-district, district and national level. As a result the organization will have a greater presence in the country in the days to come.
The military backed caretaker government of Bangladesh brought together people of different background. Some of them were technocrats, but others like Home advisor M.A. Matin have an Islamist background. It seems now that the components made of Islamist background is trying to take the government in a very different direction, which will only strengthens extremist forces in that country. The caretaker government seems no better than the BNP-Jamaat alliance in its approach towards Islamist groups. No wonder, this government failed to bring about any drastic change in the political culture of Bangladesh. The international community should increase its pressure on the caretaker government to lift the emergency and hold free and fair elections as soon as possible.
(The views expressed by the author are his own. The author can be reached at e-mail: anandkrai@yahoo.com)
The decision of the Bangladesh caretaker government to allow the most notorious terror outfit of that country to register as a political party has brought out a very different dimension of its character. The Fakharuddin Ahmed led interim government has remained in power for nearly two years claiming to be working for political reforms. It also launched a crackdown against corruption. But its latest decision has nullified all that was done by it and in fact has raised questions about its motives behind such actions.
Even in the past, reports indicated that the caretaker government was soft on Islamist groups. Though, it executed six top leaders of the Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and controlled extremist violence in the country, it did not take any serious action which could have weakened such elements. It was alleged that it hurriedly executed six JMB leaders because they wanted to reveal the names of patrons and financiers of the organization.
Earlier, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) of Bangladesh had arrested one of the country's top Islamist militant leaders, Mufti Abdul Hannan in Dhaka on October 1, 2005. Hannan, who also has links to international militant groups, is the operation commander of the Bangladesh chapter of the HUJI. Speaking to media at the RAB office in Dhaka, Hannan stated that he has been staying in the country after the former home minister and later the commerce minister, Altaf Hossain Choudhury, assured him of "no fear" in staying in the country. He also stated that he did not flee the country because of this assurance. He also told the court that some influential ministers of the government had assured him that he would be exempted from the charge of attempting to kill Sheikh Hasina. No action, so far has been taken against either Mufti Hannan or the minister. The caretaker government feared that the disclosures of similar kind by the JMB leaders would embarrass them further and expose their real face.
The caretaker government after taking over launched a crackdown against corruption. In this crackdown, the major action was taken against the two mainstream political parties- the BNP and Awami League. Jamaat-e-Islami, the leading Islamist Party in Bangladesh was largely left untouched. Top leaders of BNP and Awami League were arrested first, whereas Matiur Rahman Nizami, the Jamaat Ameer was arrested only due to sustained media pressure. Nizami was also released quickly.
Recently, when on October 6, 2008 an arrest warrant was issued against Jamaat General Secretary, Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mojahid for his involvement in Barakpuria coal mine corruption case, the government claimed that he was absconding. But surprisingly, the same absconding Jamaat leader was present in talks with the government on October 15, 2008. Mojahid has also been attending various other programmes in Dhaka. Besides, he attended meetings in Satkhira on October 10 and 11. This clearly shows the soft approach, the government has adopted towards the Islamic parties.
The caretaker government was completely unmasked when it allowed the most notorious Islamist terror group of Bangladesh to register as a political party. Huji was formed by a group of Afghan war veterans under the leadership of Sheikh Abdus Salam at a press conference at the National Press Club, Dhaka on April 30, 1992. Huji built up a network across madrasas. It organized arms training for madrasa students in hilly forest areas. The trained youths were subsequently sent to Afghanistan to participate in the war against the Soviet Union. HuJi operatives were dispatched to Myanmar as well to fight for Rohingya militants against the Myanmar’s army.
Operation of Huji under Different Names
Huji has operated in Bangladesh under different names. After Huji was listed as a terrorist organization internationally its leaders formed a political party named Islamic Gono Andolon. During the BNP-led four-party alliance rule, organizational activities of Gono Andolon were carried out secretly. It also made deliberate attempt to keep it separate from the militant campaign of Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh of that time.
Gono Andolon was renamed Sacheton Islami Janata on August 19, 2006 following an understanding with the then government that allowed the organization to work out in the open. They have been trying to get permission since the caretaker administration took over in January last year, and were finally successful in May 2008. Following this the Islamic Democratic Party (IDP) was floated on May 18, 2008 and according to Kazi Azizul Huq, advisor to the newborn organization also consists of 200 to 300 Afghan War veterans.
Attempt of Huji to Disguise its Radical Character
The operations commander of Huji, Muft Hannan is behind bars after his arrest in 2005. The other top leaders of HUJI who are now with Islamic Democratic Party are trying to blame Mufti Hannan and Abdur Rouf for all the terror activities of HUJI. They are trying to present Mufti Hannan as a leader of a splintered group of HUJI. They say that Hannan was expelled from the organization in 1998.
HUJI has tried to carefully disguise its radical character. Azizul Huq says, "Our goal is to run the country as per the Charter of Medina that gives equal rights to all citizens irrespective of religion and ethnicity." He also informed that they want to introduce Shariah (the body of Islamic religious law) only for the Muslims. Other religious and ethnic minorities may follow the existing law of the land and norms of their communities.
HUJI claims that the government has given it permission to register on the condition that it will not use violence for achieving its objective of implementing Shariah. This also means that the caretaker government is not against implementing Shariah if it is done peacefully. This approach is very similar to Jamaat’s approach.
Huji, a Radical Extremist and Terrorist Outfit
The leaders of HUJI claim that the government gave them permission to register after no proof was found against them. But HUJI has been a banned terror outfit in Bangladesh since October 2005. The US has declared it as a foreign terrorist organization. Even the Bangladesh caretaker government is quite aware of the activities of HUJI. In early 2008, it contemplated taking help of the Indian government to question two HUJI terrorists, Anisul Mursalin and Mahibbul Muttakin lodged in Tihar jail of New Delhi. These terrorists hailing from Faridpur in Bangladesh have been in jail since the Indian police arrested them at the Delhi railway station on February 26, 2006 with 3 kg of high-powered explosive RDX, two electronic detonators and two pistols. In the border meeting of BSF-BDR, on October 10, 2008 at the Dawki-Tambil border outpost in eastern Meghalaya BDR chief, Major General Shakil Ahmed admitted that HUJI was a threat to both Bangladesh and India.
Seven HUJI cadres were killed by Jat Regiment troops at Bashbari in lower Assam’s Dhubri district on September 26, 2008. This module was on their way to Guwahati where they were supposed to meet another module of the same group. Their plan was to carry out serial blasts in Guwahati.
Though the HUJI’s plan to carry out serial blasts in Guwahati was foiled, it has been successful in a similar operation in Agartala. Reports have indicated that the Agartala blasts were carried out by HUJI in collaboration with All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF). The cadres of ATTF were trained in Moximghat in Chittagong by the Bangladeshi military intelligence. This was revealed during the interrogation of a recently arrested Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO) leader by the West Bengal intelligence, who was trained in the same camp.
HUJI has been active in Agartala in the past. Tripura police records reveal that six Bangladeshi nationals with ISI links have been arrested in the state since March 2008. Subsequently, three Bangladeshi nationals were also arrested in connection with serial blasts in Agartala taking their numbers to nine. One of the arrested HUJI cadres, Mamun Mian alias Mafizur Rahman was allegedly having links with Shahid Choudhury, a senior member in the Manik Sarkar Cabinet, who had to resign on April 17, 2008 because of this.
HUJI cadres are being arrested at regular intervals from India and Bangladesh. On October 14, 2008 Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) of Bangladesh arrested four activists of Huji in Khalishpur area. They are Mizanur Rahman Tushar, Mujahidul Islam, Omar, and Yusuf Al Helal. During their interrogation it was revealed that Tushar joined the Islamist outfit in 2003 and took training at Kodala forest in Chittagong. He was arrested in Chittagong in 2004 and went into hiding after getting bail from the court. The militants also told RAB during interrogation that they had a plan to snatch Mufti Abdul Hannan from custody.
It’s a complete travesty of truth to say that HUJI has not been involved in terror activities and there are no proofs against it. In fact, the decision of the caretaker government only confirms its soft approach towards the Islamist political parties. Is it that the seems the caretaker government under the garb of political reform only wants to weaken the two mainstream political parties so that Islamist parties like Jamaat and terror groups like HUJI could be presented as viable alternatives?
HUJI in its new incarnation as IDP will form a full committee through a national convention before the ninth parliamentary election. Azizul Haque said, "We are preparing for registration on meeting the conditions specified in the application form. At the same time, we are working to have organizational structures for district and upazila levels." Huji plans to have a token participation in forthcoming December 18 election if possible in alliance with other small parties. The political face of HUJI will enable it to create structures as sub-district, district and national level. As a result the organization will have a greater presence in the country in the days to come.
The military backed caretaker government of Bangladesh brought together people of different background. Some of them were technocrats, but others like Home advisor M.A. Matin have an Islamist background. It seems now that the components made of Islamist background is trying to take the government in a very different direction, which will only strengthens extremist forces in that country. The caretaker government seems no better than the BNP-Jamaat alliance in its approach towards Islamist groups. No wonder, this government failed to bring about any drastic change in the political culture of Bangladesh. The international community should increase its pressure on the caretaker government to lift the emergency and hold free and fair elections as soon as possible.
(The views expressed by the author are his own. The author can be reached at e-mail: anandkrai@yahoo.com)
RESTIVE MUSLIMS – Impact on Internal Security?
By R. Upadhyay
Facing the challenge of aggressive Muslim invaders since their first invasion in 712 A.D. and intervention in governance of the sub-continent from 1194 which spread for a period of over a millennium, Indian people are put on trial at every stage. Whether it was the soft attitude of Prithviraj Chouhan towards Mohammad Ghori or the alliance of Rana Sangram Singh with Babar the founder of Moghul dynasty against Ibrahim Lodi or the negotiation the Congress leaders had with Mohammad Ali Jinnah, Indians were always at receiving end. Although, they defied their civilisational extinction with valiant and ceaseless resistance against the alien tyranny and proved the song of Allama Iqbal -“Kuchh Baat hai ki hasti mitati nahin Hamaa” (There is something distinct in us which defied our extinction -correct, they ignored the second part of the above song -“Sadiyon raha hai dushman daure zaman hamaara” (For centuries we are facing our enemies) and therefore, the challenge remained.
Historically, so long the Arabian Indians or ‘Al-Arbi-al-Hind’ as the Indian Mujahideens call themselves - ruled this country; they had no problem with Hindu majority. However, after the failed Sepoy Mutiny in 1857 followed by firm grip of British rule when their former subjects took it as a change from one alien ruler to another, they launched sustained movements like Deoband, Aligarh, Nadwa, Ahl-e-Hadith, Jamaat-e-Ulema-Hind, Tabliq Jamaat and Jamaa-e-Islami not only to restore Islamic power by re-organising their foot soldiers but also to save the community from the democratic rule under the political supremacy of the religious majority. Yusuf Abbasi, a Muslim scholar in his book entitled ‘Muslim Politics and Leadership in South Asian Sub-continent’ perhaps rightly observed – ‘The Hindus looked upon the British rule as deliverance from Muslim yoke, and considered English education as a blessing, the Muslims in their eagerness to preserve their religion and religious views rejected English education”. Accordingly, the descendents of Arabian Indians mobilized their foot soldiers and partitioned the sub-continent into ‘Muslim India’ and ‘Hindu India’. However, even after the end of British rule and establishment of secular democracy their restive psyche remained a perpetual problem of this country. “ Democracy is a concept completely alien to the Muslim psyche to the extent that there is no equivalent terminology for it in Arabic or other languages spoken by Muslims (Understanding Mohammad – A psychobiography of Allah’ Prophet by Ali Sina, a Canadian Muslim of Iranian descent).
After partition, people of Arab descent staying back in democratic and secular India identified themselves as Muslim Indians instead of as Indian Muslims and gradually converted the Muslim masses into a never ending demanding community. Thus, by reviving their communal politics and making it an unending reality with the support of vote-baiting political hawks, they have again pushed back the country in a socio-political environment of British India. Since the closing decade of last century when the coalition government at the centre was confused in handling the problem of jihadi Islamists they re-visited the century old history of Aligarh and Deoband leaders who had a secret understanding against the Indian National Congress, which they had termed as a party for Hindu revivalism. Their aggravating unrest after Batala House encounter in Delhi on September 19 during which two suspected terrorists were killed and two Muslim students of Jamia Milia arrested on their suspected involvement in Delhi blast on September 13 reminds the people of the Islamists’ rage in the closing decades of nineteenth century, when prominent Islamists like Mawlawi Abu Sayed Mohammed Hussain (d.1919) of Ahl-i-Hadith and Mirza Gulam Ahmad (1839-1908), founder of Ahmadia sect – both belonging to Batala in Gurdaspur district of Punjab state had launched violent movements against Hindu renaissance led by Arya Samaj. Drawing inspiration from the puritan and military zeal of Sayyid Ahmad Shahid who had launched jihad against the non-Islamic Sikh rule of Ranjit Singh, they had given a call for communal unity of the Muslims.
Today, alarmed with the recent exposure of the net work of SIMI and its new incarnation Indian Mujahideen and the spate of arrests of Muslim youths in recent months on their suspected involvement in terror blasts the ‘Muslim Indians’ have invented a self perceived theory that innocent Muslims are victimised by the police to malign Islam. Accordingly, they have been exchanging notes in defence of terror suspects, holding meetings, visiting Batala House in Jamia Nagar, Delhi and Azamgarh and launching campaign not only to prove the innocence of terror accused but also mobilized their foot soldiers against the alleged conspiracy in blaming and targeting the entire community after every terror blast. In view of their sustained campaign, the Muslims across the country are found convinced that their community members killed in the police operation and arrested were not terrorists. They have gone to the extent of suspecting the death of Mohan Sharma by the bullet fired by his own colleague either deliberately or by accident. When the whole country applauded the Police Inspector Mohan Sharma for his martyrdom in this encounter and Government too recognised it, Indian people barring Islamists and those pretending to be ‘secularists’ are left wondering about the scheme of defending the terror accused.
The Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid, Delhi Syed Ahamed Buqari wrote letters to various Muslim leaders across the country regarding the “bomb blasts, blame game, illegal arrests, torture of Muslim youths” and called for suggestions to fight back this issue concerning Muslims of India. He has alleged that “The highly discriminatory actions of State police forces and central intelligence agencies have let loose a reign of terror to which Central government has turned a blind eye. This is a matter of serious concern for the entire Millat. If we don't unite by closing our ranks to meet this challenge, history will never forgive us. I suggest that all Muslim organisations and leaders must unite immediately by creating one single platform for voicing our concerns and registering protests. For this purpose it is necessary to summon an urgent meeting of all Muslim organisations and leaders at the earliest” (A translated extracts from the original letter written in Urdu which is available in internet). He also led a march against the Batala House encounter and subsequently called a meeting of All India Religious and Political Leaders of the community on 14th October 2008 at Jame Masjid and condenm the alleged fake encounters and arrests of Muslims Youths. The meeting was attended by prominent personalities like Moulana Khaled Qazipuri C/O Moulana Rabe Hassan Nadvi President All India Muslim Personal Law Board., Zafer Yaab Jeelani (Adv), Moulana Margoobur Rehman (Darul oloom, Deoband), Moulana Syed Arshad Madani President Jamaiat –e- Ulema –e- Hind, Amjed Ullah Khan Leader Majlish Bachao Tahreek (MBT) Andhra Pradesh, Maulana Anees Rahmaan, Imarat –e- Sharia, Bihar, Moulana Wali Rahmani ,Munger,Bihar, Qari Amirullah ,Bhopal and Moulana Mohd Shafiq Qasmi Kolkatta,West Bengal. Leaders like Mujtaba Farooque of Jamaat-e-Islami Hind and Maulana Abdul Hamid Nomani of Jamaat-e-Ulema-e-Hind are blaming the government as well as media. Similarly, another group of Muslim leaders while setting up an ad hoc Coordination Committee of Indian Muslims also expressed their concern against the police actions in Batala House encounter and issued a press statement to mobilize the Muslim masses. Instead of discussing the remedial measures to tame the home grown Islamist terrorists they demanded stringent action including ban on Hindu organizations like VHP and Bajrang Dal . The signatories of the statement are: Mujtaba Farooq, Convenor, Coordination Committee & Secretary, Jamaat-e Islami Hind, Dr Zafarul-Islam Khan, President, All India Muslim Majlis-e Mushawarat, Ml. Abdul Hameed Nomani, Acting General Secretary, Jamiat Ulama-I- Hind, Ml. Abdul Wahab Khilji, Asstt General Secretary, All India Milli Council, Ml. Mahmoodul Hasan, President, Jamiat Ahl-e Hadees, Delhi Pradesh, Dr Taslim Rahmani, President, Muslim Political Council, Ml. Zeeshan Hidayati, Chairman, Majlis-e Fikr-o Amal, Irfanullah Khan, Chairman Jamia Nagar Coordination Committee, Ml. Jalal Haidar Naqvi, Secretary, Majlis-e Ulama-e Islam, Gopal Rai, Convenor, Teesra Swandheemta Andolan, and Bhai Tej Singh, President, Ambedkar Samaj Party.
Surprisingly, instead of allowing the dusty storm of restive Muslim minds to settle, Jamia Milia Islamia Vice Chancellor Mashirul Hasan a widely acclaimed campaigner of ‘moderate and tolerant Islam’ through his scholarly writings against the intolerant Islamists also joined the issue by offering to provide legal assistance to the two arrested students of the university and added fuel to the fire. Being an accomplished historian he is fully aware of the politics of communal polarization between the Hindus and the Muslims which took a front seat after the collapse of Muslim rule in the country and turned even a secular intellectual like Mohammad Ali Jinnah into a most communal leader of Indian sub-continent. However, he led a street march in support of the Islamists which has no bearing on academic issues and made his liberalism questionable in the mind of intelligentsia. On what assumption he placed himself at the centre of a public debate on a communally hot issue may be best known to him but didn’t he anticipate that his action will subsume the acclaimed secular character of Jamia Milia? He might have a point to prove the possibility of the accused being innocent but the way issue is debated in and around the university, it has made the situation from bad to worse. His action has not only challenged the criminal justice system of the country but also created a controversy over the constitutionally framed public policy, university code and communal integrity in the country. After creating the storm engulfing the country, the university’s Academic Council also issued an ‘open letter’ defending its ‘modern, liberal and non-denominational’ character. The letter while highlighting the names of a number of ‘secular’ leaders behind the foundation of this institution also claims “we were in the forefront of the national movement wholeheartedly, and opposed the pernicious two-nation theory.”
Whether Jamia Milia was in forefront or rear front of the national movement is not an issue of present debate. The issue is - what prompted this central funded educational institution to provide legal support to arrested terror suspects in Delhi blast case and to join with the Islamists on the issue of terrorism? As a ‘forefront participant’ of the national movement, the academics of the university were supposed to instill confidence among the restive Muslims of the country in general and Jamia Nagar in particular in the legal system of the country. Since the university played the same politics as Aligarh had played during pre-partition Pakistan Movement people of the country has no reason to disbelieve that both the universalities are birds of the same feathers.
The whole episode is apparently a reminder to the Muslim unrest during the first decade of twentieth century. On 1st October 1906 a 35-member delegation of Muslim Indians, which included nobles, aristocracies, legal professionals and other elite section in the community mostly associated with the Aligarh movement gathered at Simla under the leadership of Aga Khan and presented an address to Lord Minto. They demanded proportionate representation of Muslims in government jobs, appointment of Muslim judges in High Courts and members in Viceroy’s council, etc. However, after failing to obtain any positive commitment from the Viceroy, they organized the All India Mohammedan Educational Conference at Dacca (27-30 December 1906) which worked as a catalyst for foundation of All India Muslim League which subsequently succeeded in partition of the sub-continent on the basis of religion.
Calling for introspection and self-assessment some of the community leaders have expressed full faith in the security establishment and have favoured co-operation to the police in nabbing terror suspects. Salim Khan, a cinema-script writer and father of actor Salman Khan has even sent a sealed envelop containing condolence message with a cheque of an undisclosed amount to the family of police inspector Sharma. Arif Mohammad Khan, a hero of Shahbano case has suggested fighting the terrorists ideologically. He said, “Terrorism itself can be fought only by challenging it on the level of ideology and thought. It cannot be curbed only by police action” (Pioneer dated 11 October, 2008). Quoting a number of verses from Quran, he has tried to counter the terrorists’ concept of Quran. However, his voice to challenge the Islamist terrorists ideologically will hardly convince the controller of the foot soldiers in the community as they are not prepared to be quiet till the country comes under Islamic rule. Ironically, liberal theologian like Maulana Wahiduddin Khan an internationally known Islamic scholar who is known for his commitment to a complete ideology of peace and quiet competent to challenge the Islamists was not invited to the meeting organized by the Coordination Committee of Indian Muslims.
The combined politics of the ‘Muslim Indians’ and their priestly class have all along been the historical reality of the sub-continent. Conforming a saying - “wheresoever the carcass, there the Vultures will be gathered together”, the Muslim vote baiting political hawks behaving like street urchins spitting at Sun also joined the issue and supported the demand of the Muslims for judicial enquiry against the encounter. Their presumption on the innocence of the arrested terror accused from Jamia Milia without any supportive evidence suggest that the oft repeated Muslim communal politics in secular India by a combined force of Left-Castiest-Islamist alliance has once again become active to disturb the social harmony in the country. Instead of fighting the menace of terrorism they are flowing sympathy for the terror accused. Such negative sparks ignited by them will only make the situation from bad to worse.
It is widely believed that the terrorists involved in the recent blasts across the country belong to one or another Islamist groups with an objective to restore the institution of Caliphate. The success of home the grown jihadists claiming themselves ‘Indian Mujahideens’in attracting some of the well-educated Muslims towards their cause has not only pushed the community into the similar predicament as prevailed after collapse of Muslim power, increased the sense of alienation among them which has a deep impact on their increasing communalized psyche.
The most unfortunate part of the scenario is the role of a significant section of ‘secular’ Indians particularly intelligentsia, journalists, writers and politicians like Amar Singh , Lalu Yadav, Ram Bilas Paswan, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Arundhati Roy whose tendency to run down the image of the country has not only adversely affected the consciousness of saner section of people but has also led to aggravate the communalized psyche of Indian society as a whole. The prevailing Muslim unrest is therefore, a dangerous sign as far as the internal security of the country is concerned. If the people of the country in general and ruling class in particular are not taking lessons from the historical wrongs committed by Indians who brought defeat and dishonour to the nation either to save their throne or skin or self-seeking political interest we are bound to fail.
(The author can be reached at e-mail ramashray60@rediffmail.com)
Facing the challenge of aggressive Muslim invaders since their first invasion in 712 A.D. and intervention in governance of the sub-continent from 1194 which spread for a period of over a millennium, Indian people are put on trial at every stage. Whether it was the soft attitude of Prithviraj Chouhan towards Mohammad Ghori or the alliance of Rana Sangram Singh with Babar the founder of Moghul dynasty against Ibrahim Lodi or the negotiation the Congress leaders had with Mohammad Ali Jinnah, Indians were always at receiving end. Although, they defied their civilisational extinction with valiant and ceaseless resistance against the alien tyranny and proved the song of Allama Iqbal -“Kuchh Baat hai ki hasti mitati nahin Hamaa” (There is something distinct in us which defied our extinction -correct, they ignored the second part of the above song -“Sadiyon raha hai dushman daure zaman hamaara” (For centuries we are facing our enemies) and therefore, the challenge remained.
Historically, so long the Arabian Indians or ‘Al-Arbi-al-Hind’ as the Indian Mujahideens call themselves - ruled this country; they had no problem with Hindu majority. However, after the failed Sepoy Mutiny in 1857 followed by firm grip of British rule when their former subjects took it as a change from one alien ruler to another, they launched sustained movements like Deoband, Aligarh, Nadwa, Ahl-e-Hadith, Jamaat-e-Ulema-Hind, Tabliq Jamaat and Jamaa-e-Islami not only to restore Islamic power by re-organising their foot soldiers but also to save the community from the democratic rule under the political supremacy of the religious majority. Yusuf Abbasi, a Muslim scholar in his book entitled ‘Muslim Politics and Leadership in South Asian Sub-continent’ perhaps rightly observed – ‘The Hindus looked upon the British rule as deliverance from Muslim yoke, and considered English education as a blessing, the Muslims in their eagerness to preserve their religion and religious views rejected English education”. Accordingly, the descendents of Arabian Indians mobilized their foot soldiers and partitioned the sub-continent into ‘Muslim India’ and ‘Hindu India’. However, even after the end of British rule and establishment of secular democracy their restive psyche remained a perpetual problem of this country. “ Democracy is a concept completely alien to the Muslim psyche to the extent that there is no equivalent terminology for it in Arabic or other languages spoken by Muslims (Understanding Mohammad – A psychobiography of Allah’ Prophet by Ali Sina, a Canadian Muslim of Iranian descent).
After partition, people of Arab descent staying back in democratic and secular India identified themselves as Muslim Indians instead of as Indian Muslims and gradually converted the Muslim masses into a never ending demanding community. Thus, by reviving their communal politics and making it an unending reality with the support of vote-baiting political hawks, they have again pushed back the country in a socio-political environment of British India. Since the closing decade of last century when the coalition government at the centre was confused in handling the problem of jihadi Islamists they re-visited the century old history of Aligarh and Deoband leaders who had a secret understanding against the Indian National Congress, which they had termed as a party for Hindu revivalism. Their aggravating unrest after Batala House encounter in Delhi on September 19 during which two suspected terrorists were killed and two Muslim students of Jamia Milia arrested on their suspected involvement in Delhi blast on September 13 reminds the people of the Islamists’ rage in the closing decades of nineteenth century, when prominent Islamists like Mawlawi Abu Sayed Mohammed Hussain (d.1919) of Ahl-i-Hadith and Mirza Gulam Ahmad (1839-1908), founder of Ahmadia sect – both belonging to Batala in Gurdaspur district of Punjab state had launched violent movements against Hindu renaissance led by Arya Samaj. Drawing inspiration from the puritan and military zeal of Sayyid Ahmad Shahid who had launched jihad against the non-Islamic Sikh rule of Ranjit Singh, they had given a call for communal unity of the Muslims.
Today, alarmed with the recent exposure of the net work of SIMI and its new incarnation Indian Mujahideen and the spate of arrests of Muslim youths in recent months on their suspected involvement in terror blasts the ‘Muslim Indians’ have invented a self perceived theory that innocent Muslims are victimised by the police to malign Islam. Accordingly, they have been exchanging notes in defence of terror suspects, holding meetings, visiting Batala House in Jamia Nagar, Delhi and Azamgarh and launching campaign not only to prove the innocence of terror accused but also mobilized their foot soldiers against the alleged conspiracy in blaming and targeting the entire community after every terror blast. In view of their sustained campaign, the Muslims across the country are found convinced that their community members killed in the police operation and arrested were not terrorists. They have gone to the extent of suspecting the death of Mohan Sharma by the bullet fired by his own colleague either deliberately or by accident. When the whole country applauded the Police Inspector Mohan Sharma for his martyrdom in this encounter and Government too recognised it, Indian people barring Islamists and those pretending to be ‘secularists’ are left wondering about the scheme of defending the terror accused.
The Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid, Delhi Syed Ahamed Buqari wrote letters to various Muslim leaders across the country regarding the “bomb blasts, blame game, illegal arrests, torture of Muslim youths” and called for suggestions to fight back this issue concerning Muslims of India. He has alleged that “The highly discriminatory actions of State police forces and central intelligence agencies have let loose a reign of terror to which Central government has turned a blind eye. This is a matter of serious concern for the entire Millat. If we don't unite by closing our ranks to meet this challenge, history will never forgive us. I suggest that all Muslim organisations and leaders must unite immediately by creating one single platform for voicing our concerns and registering protests. For this purpose it is necessary to summon an urgent meeting of all Muslim organisations and leaders at the earliest” (A translated extracts from the original letter written in Urdu which is available in internet). He also led a march against the Batala House encounter and subsequently called a meeting of All India Religious and Political Leaders of the community on 14th October 2008 at Jame Masjid and condenm the alleged fake encounters and arrests of Muslims Youths. The meeting was attended by prominent personalities like Moulana Khaled Qazipuri C/O Moulana Rabe Hassan Nadvi President All India Muslim Personal Law Board., Zafer Yaab Jeelani (Adv), Moulana Margoobur Rehman (Darul oloom, Deoband), Moulana Syed Arshad Madani President Jamaiat –e- Ulema –e- Hind, Amjed Ullah Khan Leader Majlish Bachao Tahreek (MBT) Andhra Pradesh, Maulana Anees Rahmaan, Imarat –e- Sharia, Bihar, Moulana Wali Rahmani ,Munger,Bihar, Qari Amirullah ,Bhopal and Moulana Mohd Shafiq Qasmi Kolkatta,West Bengal. Leaders like Mujtaba Farooque of Jamaat-e-Islami Hind and Maulana Abdul Hamid Nomani of Jamaat-e-Ulema-e-Hind are blaming the government as well as media. Similarly, another group of Muslim leaders while setting up an ad hoc Coordination Committee of Indian Muslims also expressed their concern against the police actions in Batala House encounter and issued a press statement to mobilize the Muslim masses. Instead of discussing the remedial measures to tame the home grown Islamist terrorists they demanded stringent action including ban on Hindu organizations like VHP and Bajrang Dal . The signatories of the statement are: Mujtaba Farooq, Convenor, Coordination Committee & Secretary, Jamaat-e Islami Hind, Dr Zafarul-Islam Khan, President, All India Muslim Majlis-e Mushawarat, Ml. Abdul Hameed Nomani, Acting General Secretary, Jamiat Ulama-I- Hind, Ml. Abdul Wahab Khilji, Asstt General Secretary, All India Milli Council, Ml. Mahmoodul Hasan, President, Jamiat Ahl-e Hadees, Delhi Pradesh, Dr Taslim Rahmani, President, Muslim Political Council, Ml. Zeeshan Hidayati, Chairman, Majlis-e Fikr-o Amal, Irfanullah Khan, Chairman Jamia Nagar Coordination Committee, Ml. Jalal Haidar Naqvi, Secretary, Majlis-e Ulama-e Islam, Gopal Rai, Convenor, Teesra Swandheemta Andolan, and Bhai Tej Singh, President, Ambedkar Samaj Party.
Surprisingly, instead of allowing the dusty storm of restive Muslim minds to settle, Jamia Milia Islamia Vice Chancellor Mashirul Hasan a widely acclaimed campaigner of ‘moderate and tolerant Islam’ through his scholarly writings against the intolerant Islamists also joined the issue by offering to provide legal assistance to the two arrested students of the university and added fuel to the fire. Being an accomplished historian he is fully aware of the politics of communal polarization between the Hindus and the Muslims which took a front seat after the collapse of Muslim rule in the country and turned even a secular intellectual like Mohammad Ali Jinnah into a most communal leader of Indian sub-continent. However, he led a street march in support of the Islamists which has no bearing on academic issues and made his liberalism questionable in the mind of intelligentsia. On what assumption he placed himself at the centre of a public debate on a communally hot issue may be best known to him but didn’t he anticipate that his action will subsume the acclaimed secular character of Jamia Milia? He might have a point to prove the possibility of the accused being innocent but the way issue is debated in and around the university, it has made the situation from bad to worse. His action has not only challenged the criminal justice system of the country but also created a controversy over the constitutionally framed public policy, university code and communal integrity in the country. After creating the storm engulfing the country, the university’s Academic Council also issued an ‘open letter’ defending its ‘modern, liberal and non-denominational’ character. The letter while highlighting the names of a number of ‘secular’ leaders behind the foundation of this institution also claims “we were in the forefront of the national movement wholeheartedly, and opposed the pernicious two-nation theory.”
Whether Jamia Milia was in forefront or rear front of the national movement is not an issue of present debate. The issue is - what prompted this central funded educational institution to provide legal support to arrested terror suspects in Delhi blast case and to join with the Islamists on the issue of terrorism? As a ‘forefront participant’ of the national movement, the academics of the university were supposed to instill confidence among the restive Muslims of the country in general and Jamia Nagar in particular in the legal system of the country. Since the university played the same politics as Aligarh had played during pre-partition Pakistan Movement people of the country has no reason to disbelieve that both the universalities are birds of the same feathers.
The whole episode is apparently a reminder to the Muslim unrest during the first decade of twentieth century. On 1st October 1906 a 35-member delegation of Muslim Indians, which included nobles, aristocracies, legal professionals and other elite section in the community mostly associated with the Aligarh movement gathered at Simla under the leadership of Aga Khan and presented an address to Lord Minto. They demanded proportionate representation of Muslims in government jobs, appointment of Muslim judges in High Courts and members in Viceroy’s council, etc. However, after failing to obtain any positive commitment from the Viceroy, they organized the All India Mohammedan Educational Conference at Dacca (27-30 December 1906) which worked as a catalyst for foundation of All India Muslim League which subsequently succeeded in partition of the sub-continent on the basis of religion.
Calling for introspection and self-assessment some of the community leaders have expressed full faith in the security establishment and have favoured co-operation to the police in nabbing terror suspects. Salim Khan, a cinema-script writer and father of actor Salman Khan has even sent a sealed envelop containing condolence message with a cheque of an undisclosed amount to the family of police inspector Sharma. Arif Mohammad Khan, a hero of Shahbano case has suggested fighting the terrorists ideologically. He said, “Terrorism itself can be fought only by challenging it on the level of ideology and thought. It cannot be curbed only by police action” (Pioneer dated 11 October, 2008). Quoting a number of verses from Quran, he has tried to counter the terrorists’ concept of Quran. However, his voice to challenge the Islamist terrorists ideologically will hardly convince the controller of the foot soldiers in the community as they are not prepared to be quiet till the country comes under Islamic rule. Ironically, liberal theologian like Maulana Wahiduddin Khan an internationally known Islamic scholar who is known for his commitment to a complete ideology of peace and quiet competent to challenge the Islamists was not invited to the meeting organized by the Coordination Committee of Indian Muslims.
The combined politics of the ‘Muslim Indians’ and their priestly class have all along been the historical reality of the sub-continent. Conforming a saying - “wheresoever the carcass, there the Vultures will be gathered together”, the Muslim vote baiting political hawks behaving like street urchins spitting at Sun also joined the issue and supported the demand of the Muslims for judicial enquiry against the encounter. Their presumption on the innocence of the arrested terror accused from Jamia Milia without any supportive evidence suggest that the oft repeated Muslim communal politics in secular India by a combined force of Left-Castiest-Islamist alliance has once again become active to disturb the social harmony in the country. Instead of fighting the menace of terrorism they are flowing sympathy for the terror accused. Such negative sparks ignited by them will only make the situation from bad to worse.
It is widely believed that the terrorists involved in the recent blasts across the country belong to one or another Islamist groups with an objective to restore the institution of Caliphate. The success of home the grown jihadists claiming themselves ‘Indian Mujahideens’in attracting some of the well-educated Muslims towards their cause has not only pushed the community into the similar predicament as prevailed after collapse of Muslim power, increased the sense of alienation among them which has a deep impact on their increasing communalized psyche.
The most unfortunate part of the scenario is the role of a significant section of ‘secular’ Indians particularly intelligentsia, journalists, writers and politicians like Amar Singh , Lalu Yadav, Ram Bilas Paswan, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Arundhati Roy whose tendency to run down the image of the country has not only adversely affected the consciousness of saner section of people but has also led to aggravate the communalized psyche of Indian society as a whole. The prevailing Muslim unrest is therefore, a dangerous sign as far as the internal security of the country is concerned. If the people of the country in general and ruling class in particular are not taking lessons from the historical wrongs committed by Indians who brought defeat and dishonour to the nation either to save their throne or skin or self-seeking political interest we are bound to fail.
(The author can be reached at e-mail ramashray60@rediffmail.com)
Researchers hack wired keyboards
October 25, 2008 - 6:08 PM
DEMO VISIT http://lasecwww.epfl.ch/keyboard/
One of the biggest threats to personal data and online security could be the ubiquitous wired computer keyboard, Swiss research has revealed.
Scientists from the Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne (EPFL) have discovered that it is possible to remotely reproduce the keystrokes typed on a wired computer keyboard from as far as 20 metres away.
Doctoral students Martin Vaugnoux and Sylvain Pasini from the EPFL's Security and Cryptography Laboratory demonstrated that the electromagnetic waves emitted every time you strike a key can be detected by a nearby antenna and interpreted by computer software to work out exactly what was typed.
The security researchers tested four hacking methods on 11 keyboards of different makes and models bought over the past eight years. The attacks they developed also worked with keyboards embedded in laptops.
They found that every keyboard tested was vulnerable to at least one of the four surveillance attacks.
In a web posting they concluded that "wired computer keyboards sold in the stores generate compromising emanations" and keyboards were therefore "not safe to transmit sensitive information".
"Computer security is a pluri-disciplinary question. Keyboards are the first element in the chain and have been neglected in the past," Vaugnoux told swissinfo.
Compromising Electromagnetic Emanations of Keyboards
Cost pressures
The researchers' system can eavesdrop on someone typing up to 20 metres away, even if they are in the next room. That makes it possible to recover online bank details or PINs used at cash point machines, they claim.
In a video on the EPFL website showing their work, the researchers are seen testing keyboards to access keystrokes using just computers, antennae and specialised software.
"Our attacks can no doubt be significantly improved, since we used relatively inexpensive equipment," they said.
The EPFL researchers believe keyboards endanger security largely because of "cost pressures in design".
"We know how to protect keyboards against hacking. The solution is to house the keyboard in a Faraday cage [an earthed metal enclosure to exclude electrostatic influences], but this is very expensive, so companies don't do it," said Vaugnoux.
Keyboards certified to the US National Security Agency's (NSA) TEMPEST standard, for example, cost hundreds of dollars, he added.
Keyboard manufacturer Logitech, which has close working ties with the EPFL and has an incubator on campus, rejected the idea that its equipment was unsafe to transmit sensitive information.
"We are very confident that our corded and cordless keyboards are fully secure," Logitech spokesman Ben Starkie told swissinfo, while admitting that he was unsure whether the firm's keyboards had been tested by the team.
Phreaking out
The EPFL researchers are currently awaiting the conclusions of a peer group review on their article on the technique and hope it will soon be published at an upcoming conference.
The team's method is similar to a technique know as Van Eck phreaking developed by Dutch researcher Wim van Eck in 1985 to spy on computer monitors from a distance. The team's research also builds on earlier work by Cambridge University computer security researcher Markus Kuhn, who looked at ways of using electromagnetic emanations to eavesdrop and hack information.
Using a radio antenna and radio receiver, in 2007 Kuhn managed to grab the image from a computer monitor through two intermediate offices and three walls.
Vaugnoux said it was difficult to say whether such hacking techniques were currently in use, but added that their research confirmed what had been widely discussed since the 1980s.
"People have written to me telling me that it's possible and they've seen FBI training sessions where it's done," he said.
The government's cyber crime unit, Melani, said it was not aware of any previous cases of emanation monitoring in Switzerland but said it could not exclude the possibility in the future.
swissinfo, Simon Bradley
DEMO VISIT http://lasecwww.epfl.ch/keyboard/
One of the biggest threats to personal data and online security could be the ubiquitous wired computer keyboard, Swiss research has revealed.
Scientists from the Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne (EPFL) have discovered that it is possible to remotely reproduce the keystrokes typed on a wired computer keyboard from as far as 20 metres away.
Doctoral students Martin Vaugnoux and Sylvain Pasini from the EPFL's Security and Cryptography Laboratory demonstrated that the electromagnetic waves emitted every time you strike a key can be detected by a nearby antenna and interpreted by computer software to work out exactly what was typed.
The security researchers tested four hacking methods on 11 keyboards of different makes and models bought over the past eight years. The attacks they developed also worked with keyboards embedded in laptops.
They found that every keyboard tested was vulnerable to at least one of the four surveillance attacks.
In a web posting they concluded that "wired computer keyboards sold in the stores generate compromising emanations" and keyboards were therefore "not safe to transmit sensitive information".
"Computer security is a pluri-disciplinary question. Keyboards are the first element in the chain and have been neglected in the past," Vaugnoux told swissinfo.
Compromising Electromagnetic Emanations of Keyboards
Cost pressures
The researchers' system can eavesdrop on someone typing up to 20 metres away, even if they are in the next room. That makes it possible to recover online bank details or PINs used at cash point machines, they claim.
In a video on the EPFL website showing their work, the researchers are seen testing keyboards to access keystrokes using just computers, antennae and specialised software.
"Our attacks can no doubt be significantly improved, since we used relatively inexpensive equipment," they said.
The EPFL researchers believe keyboards endanger security largely because of "cost pressures in design".
"We know how to protect keyboards against hacking. The solution is to house the keyboard in a Faraday cage [an earthed metal enclosure to exclude electrostatic influences], but this is very expensive, so companies don't do it," said Vaugnoux.
Keyboards certified to the US National Security Agency's (NSA) TEMPEST standard, for example, cost hundreds of dollars, he added.
Keyboard manufacturer Logitech, which has close working ties with the EPFL and has an incubator on campus, rejected the idea that its equipment was unsafe to transmit sensitive information.
"We are very confident that our corded and cordless keyboards are fully secure," Logitech spokesman Ben Starkie told swissinfo, while admitting that he was unsure whether the firm's keyboards had been tested by the team.
Phreaking out
The EPFL researchers are currently awaiting the conclusions of a peer group review on their article on the technique and hope it will soon be published at an upcoming conference.
The team's method is similar to a technique know as Van Eck phreaking developed by Dutch researcher Wim van Eck in 1985 to spy on computer monitors from a distance. The team's research also builds on earlier work by Cambridge University computer security researcher Markus Kuhn, who looked at ways of using electromagnetic emanations to eavesdrop and hack information.
Using a radio antenna and radio receiver, in 2007 Kuhn managed to grab the image from a computer monitor through two intermediate offices and three walls.
Vaugnoux said it was difficult to say whether such hacking techniques were currently in use, but added that their research confirmed what had been widely discussed since the 1980s.
"People have written to me telling me that it's possible and they've seen FBI training sessions where it's done," he said.
The government's cyber crime unit, Melani, said it was not aware of any previous cases of emanation monitoring in Switzerland but said it could not exclude the possibility in the future.
swissinfo, Simon Bradley
Turkish military on the defensive
24 Oct 2008
The Turkish military, a pillar of the secular tradition and long the country's most trusted institution, finds itself on the defensive, Yigal Schleifer writes for EurasiaNet.
By Yigal Schleifer in Ankara for EurasiaNet
Turkey’s military, long seen as the country’s most trusted institution and as the ultimate defender of the state, is suddenly facing fire from an unlikely source: the public.
The military’s image crisis is coinciding with a high-profile trial, in which a group of nationalist-secularist conspirators are accused of plotting the overthrow of the country’s moderate Islamist government. The trial of the so-called Ergenekon conspirators resumed on 23 October. Some experts see the twin developments as a sign of a major shift in Turkey’s political tradition.
The trouble for the military began 3 October, when an attack by guerillas from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) on a border outpost left 17 Turkish soldiers dead. Since then, the army has been facing an unprecedented level of criticism, accused of negligence in the death of the soldiers and ineptitude in its ongoing fight against the PKK.
The military’s image took a further blow when Turkish newspapers widely circulated a picture of the country’s top air force general on vacation playing golf the day after the bloody attack, seemingly oblivious to what had happened. "Resign, My Pasha," was the front-page headline in popular Vatan newspaper, using the Ottoman term for military generals. In a country where the military and its exploits are almost worshipped, this kind of open criticism of a general was a first.
"This can be described as a kind of turning point, in the sense that it’s the first time some of the media have questioned mistakes made by the military in the fight against the PKK," says Lale Sariibrahimoglu, a military analyst based in Ankara.
"Up until now, it has been very hard to question the military’s actions and mistakes in the fight against the PKK."
Observers here say that this harsh criticism is an indication of the continuing dilution of the Turkish military’s formidable political power and an important step towards strengthening Turkey’s still struggling democratization process and perhaps towards developing new, civilian-led, strategies in dealing with the Kurdish problem.
The Turkish military certainly appears to be standing on unfamiliar ground. For decades, the army has been Turkey’s dominant political force, seen as the ultimate protector of the country’s political stability and of its secular system of government. Since 1960, Turkey’s generals have pushed four governments out of office.
"They have meddled a lot in domestic politics," says Volkan Aytar, a researcher on military affairs at the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV), an Istanbul-based think tank.
"The military has been a brake mechanism of sorts on Turkey’s democratization process," he adds. "Whenever there has been a democratic reform on the agenda, they [generals] have claimed it was going to impact the military’s ability."
Reforms introduced in the last decade as part of Turkey’s bid to join the European Union have helped weaken the military’s influence in politics, providing for more civilian involvement in security issues and for increased parliamentary oversight of the army’s budget.
This seems to have emboldened the press to scrutinize military conduct. One newspaper, Taraf, accused the army of failing to act on intelligence that the recent PKK attack was in the works, even running on its front page classified aerial pictures taken by an unmanned military aircraft that seemed to show the PKK’s guerillas preparing for their raid.
"We can say that we are passing to a new phase in Turkish civilian-military relationship," says Mehmet Ali Birand, a political analyst with the Kanal D television network.
"The press used to be afraid of criticizing the military, it was very careful not to do that. Now it’s just the contrary. We’ve never seen criticism like this before."
"It’s a new era," he adds.
Still, the generals don’t appear to be backing off from the media’s attacks. In a tense press conference, Ilker Basbug, Turkey’s top general, said the military would take legal action against anyone leaking material to the press about the recent PKK attack. "This is my last word: I invite everyone to be careful and to stand in the right position," a visibly angry Basbug, flanked by his top generals, said. "The systematic attacks that have increased in recent days would do nothing but increase the strength, determination and will of the Turkish Armed Forces."
TESEV’s Aytar says the military’s threats may carry less weight these days than they used to. "The army’s efforts to counter all this criticism, saying it’s just an effort to weaken the military, don’t fly anymore. It doesn’t strike a chord with the public," he said.
"I think the Turkish public is now seeing more that this meddling in domestic politics, even in the tiniest details, has been hurting the military’s ability to do its important job in defending the border against PKK attacks."
Experts also believe that public debate on the military’s record could have beneficial results, helping Turkey to find a new way of resolving the country’s decades-old fight with the PKK. "It’s a good start on the PKK issue," says Sariibrahimoglu. "It could force the political authorities to curb the military’s political involvement in the Kurdish issue and allow for more political solutions to come up."
Says Hugh Pope, Turkey analyst with the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based policy and advocacy organization: "The cliche of Turkey run by militaristic generals, which was the image of Turkey for a long time, is no longer valid."
"It creates opening for new kinds of thinking. The whole narrative of an easy military solution for PKK is now discredited," he said.
Yigal Schleifer is a freelance journalist based in Istanbul.
Publisher
EurasiaNet
EurasiaNet provides information and analysis about political, economic, environmental, and social developments in the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus as well as in Russia, the Middle East and Southwest Asia. The website presents a variety of perspectives on contemporary developments, utilizing a network of correspondents based both in the West and in the region. The aim of EurasiaNet is to promote informed decision making among policy makers, as well as broadening interest in the region among the general public. EurasiaNet is operated by the Central Eurasia Project of the Open Society Institute.
The Turkish military, a pillar of the secular tradition and long the country's most trusted institution, finds itself on the defensive, Yigal Schleifer writes for EurasiaNet.
By Yigal Schleifer in Ankara for EurasiaNet
Turkey’s military, long seen as the country’s most trusted institution and as the ultimate defender of the state, is suddenly facing fire from an unlikely source: the public.
The military’s image crisis is coinciding with a high-profile trial, in which a group of nationalist-secularist conspirators are accused of plotting the overthrow of the country’s moderate Islamist government. The trial of the so-called Ergenekon conspirators resumed on 23 October. Some experts see the twin developments as a sign of a major shift in Turkey’s political tradition.
The trouble for the military began 3 October, when an attack by guerillas from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) on a border outpost left 17 Turkish soldiers dead. Since then, the army has been facing an unprecedented level of criticism, accused of negligence in the death of the soldiers and ineptitude in its ongoing fight against the PKK.
The military’s image took a further blow when Turkish newspapers widely circulated a picture of the country’s top air force general on vacation playing golf the day after the bloody attack, seemingly oblivious to what had happened. "Resign, My Pasha," was the front-page headline in popular Vatan newspaper, using the Ottoman term for military generals. In a country where the military and its exploits are almost worshipped, this kind of open criticism of a general was a first.
"This can be described as a kind of turning point, in the sense that it’s the first time some of the media have questioned mistakes made by the military in the fight against the PKK," says Lale Sariibrahimoglu, a military analyst based in Ankara.
"Up until now, it has been very hard to question the military’s actions and mistakes in the fight against the PKK."
Observers here say that this harsh criticism is an indication of the continuing dilution of the Turkish military’s formidable political power and an important step towards strengthening Turkey’s still struggling democratization process and perhaps towards developing new, civilian-led, strategies in dealing with the Kurdish problem.
The Turkish military certainly appears to be standing on unfamiliar ground. For decades, the army has been Turkey’s dominant political force, seen as the ultimate protector of the country’s political stability and of its secular system of government. Since 1960, Turkey’s generals have pushed four governments out of office.
"They have meddled a lot in domestic politics," says Volkan Aytar, a researcher on military affairs at the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV), an Istanbul-based think tank.
"The military has been a brake mechanism of sorts on Turkey’s democratization process," he adds. "Whenever there has been a democratic reform on the agenda, they [generals] have claimed it was going to impact the military’s ability."
Reforms introduced in the last decade as part of Turkey’s bid to join the European Union have helped weaken the military’s influence in politics, providing for more civilian involvement in security issues and for increased parliamentary oversight of the army’s budget.
This seems to have emboldened the press to scrutinize military conduct. One newspaper, Taraf, accused the army of failing to act on intelligence that the recent PKK attack was in the works, even running on its front page classified aerial pictures taken by an unmanned military aircraft that seemed to show the PKK’s guerillas preparing for their raid.
"We can say that we are passing to a new phase in Turkish civilian-military relationship," says Mehmet Ali Birand, a political analyst with the Kanal D television network.
"The press used to be afraid of criticizing the military, it was very careful not to do that. Now it’s just the contrary. We’ve never seen criticism like this before."
"It’s a new era," he adds.
Still, the generals don’t appear to be backing off from the media’s attacks. In a tense press conference, Ilker Basbug, Turkey’s top general, said the military would take legal action against anyone leaking material to the press about the recent PKK attack. "This is my last word: I invite everyone to be careful and to stand in the right position," a visibly angry Basbug, flanked by his top generals, said. "The systematic attacks that have increased in recent days would do nothing but increase the strength, determination and will of the Turkish Armed Forces."
TESEV’s Aytar says the military’s threats may carry less weight these days than they used to. "The army’s efforts to counter all this criticism, saying it’s just an effort to weaken the military, don’t fly anymore. It doesn’t strike a chord with the public," he said.
"I think the Turkish public is now seeing more that this meddling in domestic politics, even in the tiniest details, has been hurting the military’s ability to do its important job in defending the border against PKK attacks."
Experts also believe that public debate on the military’s record could have beneficial results, helping Turkey to find a new way of resolving the country’s decades-old fight with the PKK. "It’s a good start on the PKK issue," says Sariibrahimoglu. "It could force the political authorities to curb the military’s political involvement in the Kurdish issue and allow for more political solutions to come up."
Says Hugh Pope, Turkey analyst with the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based policy and advocacy organization: "The cliche of Turkey run by militaristic generals, which was the image of Turkey for a long time, is no longer valid."
"It creates opening for new kinds of thinking. The whole narrative of an easy military solution for PKK is now discredited," he said.
Yigal Schleifer is a freelance journalist based in Istanbul.
Publisher
EurasiaNet
EurasiaNet provides information and analysis about political, economic, environmental, and social developments in the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus as well as in Russia, the Middle East and Southwest Asia. The website presents a variety of perspectives on contemporary developments, utilizing a network of correspondents based both in the West and in the region. The aim of EurasiaNet is to promote informed decision making among policy makers, as well as broadening interest in the region among the general public. EurasiaNet is operated by the Central Eurasia Project of the Open Society Institute.
U.S. Animosity Towards Iran Thwarts Policy in Afghanistan
by Barnett R. Rubin and Sara Batmanglich, MIT Center for International Studies (source: Alternet.org)
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Afghanistan is one of several contexts in which the long-term common interests of the U.S. and Iran have been overshadowed by the animus originating in the 1953 CIA-led coup in Iran and the Iranian revolution of 1979, to the detriment of the interests of the U.S., Iran, and Afghanistan. This confrontation has served the interests of the Pakistan military, Taliban, and al-Qaida. Re-establishing the basis for U.S.-Iranian cooperation in Afghanistan would provide significant additional leverage over Pakistan, on whose territory the leadership of both the Taliban and al-Qaida are now found.
During the first half of the Cold War (until the 1978 coup in Afghanistan and the 1979 revolution in Iran), Afghanistan was a non-aligned country with a Soviet-trained army wedged between the USSR and U.S. allies. In the 1970s, under the Nixon Doctrine, the U.S. supported efforts by the Shah of Iran to use his post-1973 oil wealth to support efforts by Afghan President Muhammad Daoud to lessen Kabul's dependence on the USSR. This ended with the successive overthrow of both Daoud and the Shah in 1978 and 1979. A U.S. close partnership with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan emerged as the primary means of maintaining U.S. influence in the Persian Gulf and its eastern flank. Support for Sunni Islamists in Afghanistan and an Islamist-oriented military regime in Pakistan formed parts of this strategy to repulse the USSR from its occupation of Afghanistan, begun in late 1979, and to isolate Iran.
The U.S. led support for the mujahidin based in Pakistan and a greatly enlarged Pakistani security establishment, with co-funding from Saudi Arabia and implementation largely in the hands of Pakistan's Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence. The ISI also nurtured the Sunni right wing in Pakistan to counter-balance the Pakistan People's Party and ethnic sub-nationalists. Revolutionary Iran, distracted by its war with Iraq, provided aid to Afghan Shi'a groups that supported the revolutionary line of Khomeini, but did not engage fully.
Post Soviet: Oil and Taliban
The dissolution of the USSR and independence of the Central Asian and Caucasus states in 1991-92 led to the disengagement of the U.S. from the region, reducing external support to the Pakistan-Saudi alliance and providing Iran with more opportunities for maneuver in Afghanistan. Iran broadened its contacts in Afghanistan from Shi'a groups to non-Pashtun groups more generally (including Sunnis and former government militias), helping to broker the formation of the so-called "Northern Alliance" during the 1992 collapse of the Najibullah government.
The opening of Central Asia and the Caspian region to the international oil and gas market created a new strategic stake. Russia aimed to maintain its monopoly on export of these resources through the former Soviet pipeline network. The U.S. sought to promote the autonomy of the Newly Independent States (as they were called) by supporting alternative pipeline routes and hydrocarbon development schemes. But the shortest and most secure routes from the former USSR's energy resources to the sea lay through Iran, which the U.S. had kept under sanctions since the Tehran embassy takeover.
Iran proposed to become the transport hub for both oil and gas, linking the Central Asian-Caspian region to the Persian Gulf. The main focus of U.S. hydrocarbon strategy was the route north and west of Iran, which ultimately led to the construction of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. Afghanistan played a role in the secondary theater of the southern and eastern outlet, as the U.S. mildly supported Pakistan's attempts to use the Taliban to provide a secure transport corridor from Pakistan to Turkmenistan via western Afghanistan. Iran saw this as part of the U.S. strategy of encircling and containing Iran.
When Lakhdar Brahimi became the UN Secretary-General's Special Envoy for Afghanistan in 1997, he found that the Government of Iran believed that the U.S., Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia were jointly supporting the Taliban in continuation of their previous policies. Iran consequently saw the Taliban as the spear-point of its strategic opponent and joined with Russia, India, and the Central Asian states in an effort to support and supply the Northern Alliance. Iran moved beyond its ideological support for Shi'a parties to a strategic policy of supporting all anti-Taliban forces. It settled its differences over Tajikistan with Russia, and the two states brokered the 1997 peace agreement in order to assure a consolidated rear for the Northern Alliance.
Events in August 1998 turned both the U.S. and Iran further against the Taliban. With Pakistan's assistance, the Taliban captured control of most of northern Afghanistan; Pakistani extremists under Taliban command massacred nine Iranian diplomats in Mazar-i Sharif, leading Iran to mobilize troops on the border. Diplomacy by Brahimi averted open warfare. The same week, al-Qaida, then operating out of the Taliban's Kandahar headquarters, attacked the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. Consequently the U.S. began intelligence cooperation with the Northern Alliance. The State Department conducted a dialogue with Iran within the framework of the UN-convened "Six plus Two" group, which included Afghanistan's neighbors, the U.S., and Russia. Pakistan became increasingly isolated in the group. The U.S. and Russia jointly approved Security Council sanctions against the Taliban and al-Qaida, with the support of Iran and against the wishes of Pakistan, which flouted the sanctions.
Since 9/11
After 9/11, despite some jockeying for relative advantage, Russia, Iran, India and the United States ultimately cooperated to defeat the Taliban and al-Qaida in Afghanistan, and to establish the new Afghan government. Not only did Iran cooperate with the United States, Russia actively helped it establish support bases in Central Asia. Pakistan was politically marginalized in the process.
U.S.-Iranian cooperation occurred both in the field, in Tajikistan and Afghanistan, and in diplomacy, where I personally witnessed it. According to Iranian diplomatic sources, members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, Sipah-i Pasdaran) cooperated with the CIA and U.S. Special Operations Forces in supplying and funding the commanders of the Northern Alliance. During the war in the fall of 2001, both Russia and Iran wavered between supporting the reconquest of power by President Burhanuddin Rabbani and the plan for a broader political settlement supported by the followers of Ahmad Shah Massoud, the UN, and the U.S.
At the UN Talks on Afghanistan in Bonn, Germany, which negotiated the agreements governing the political transition in Afghanistan, U.S. and Iranian envoys James Dobbins and Javad Zarif cooperated closely on all major issues. Zarif supported efforts to frustrate Rabbani's goal of preventing the meeting from reaching agreement in the hope of consolidating his own power and forestalling formation of a broader government. Zarif's last-minute intervention with the Northern Alliance delegation chair, Yunus Qanuni, convinced the latter to reduce the number of cabinet posts he demanded in the interim administration.
The U.S. and Iran jointly insisted that the Bonn agreement contain a timetable for national elections and require the Afghan administration to cooperate in the fight against terrorism and drugs. Dobbins had to overcome resistance from hard-liners in the Department of Defense in order to cooperate with Iran, but his brief from Secretary of State Colin Powell enabled him to do so. Zarif, affiliated with the reformist trend of President Muhammad Khatami, may similarly have had to overcome resistance. In informal conversation, where I was present as a member of the UN delegation, U.S. diplomats told the Iranians that other issues prevented broader cooperation; the Iranians replied by asking to discuss all issues between the two countries.
The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarded these events as an opportunity to increase cooperation with the U.S. from Afghanistan to a wider set of issues. Dobbins reports that Iranian officials later offered to work under U.S. command to assist in building the Afghan National Army. U.S.-Iranian cooperation in building the Afghan security forces would have constituted a major investment in realignment to the detriment of Pakistan, whose military counted on monopolizing the role as the U.S.'s intermediaries with Afghanistan as leverage to assure the U.S.-Pakistan military supply relationship.
The Bush administration, however, rejected the initiative. Instead, it charged Iran with "harboring" an Afghan opposition figure and Islamist leader, Gulbiddin Hekmatyar, who was supported by U.S. aid to the mujahidin in the 1980s, and who had sought refuge in Tehran after having been abandoned by Pakistan for the Taliban in 1995. Iran expelled him. U.S. officials also charged that Iran was establishing influence in Herat, which would be somewhat akin to accusing the U.S. of exercising influence over northern Mexico. Additionally, the U.S. alleged that members of al-Qaida had taken refuge in Iran. Some may have done so with the collaboration of local IRGC commanders, but the overwhelming fact was that the surviving core leadership of al-Qaida all made its way to Pakistan, where their logistics and networks had been based and where they remained.
Afghan in the Middle
President Bush signaled decisively that cooperation in Afghanistan would not lead to a broader rapprochement with Iran when he included Iran in the "Axis of Evil" in his January 2002 State of the Union speech. Subsequently he also named Pakistan as the U.S.'s closest non-NATO ally. In this, the Bush administration showed that the events of 9/11 had not at all dissuaded it from perpetuating the historic mistake of considering Afghanistan a sideshow and subordinating policy toward that country to broader strategic interests in the Persian Gulf and Middle East, above all, the conflict with Iran.
Even the revelation that Pakistan had been the main source of nuclear weapons proliferation to Iran, North Korea, and Libya, did not change the U.S. orientation. Pakistan's actual nuclear weapons and proliferation activity were considered less threatening than Iran's potential ones. The Bush administration also failed even to monitor Pakistan's activities in support of a revived Taliban and the development of a new safe haven for al-Qaida in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.
The Afghan government responded to the growing threat, which it saw as mainly coming from Pakistan, by asking the U.S. to sign a Declaration for Strategic Partnership, which Presidents Karzai and Bush did in Washington in May 2005. Tehran responded by asking President Karzai to sign a declaration of strategic partnership with Iran that, among its provisions, committed Afghanistan not to permit its territory to be used for military or intelligence operations against Iran. The message was clear: Iran would accept Afghanistan's strategic partnership with the United States, but only if it is not directed against Iran.
President Karzai responded that he would like to sign such a declaration, but that his government was not in a position to prevent the United States from using its territory against Iran. The Iranians said that they knew that, but would like such a statement anyway, and that without such a declaration, President Karzai would not be welcome in Tehran for the August 2005 inauguration of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. A phone call to President Karzai from a cabinet officer in Washington forbade the Afghan President from signing any such declaration or attending the inauguration. A few months later, in January 2006, another phone call forbade Karzai to travel to Tehran to sign economic agreements.
In early 2007, Washington reported that Iran had started to supply sophisticated arms to the Taliban in western Afghanistan. Iran had also increased political and military support to the former Northern Alliance, which had formed the core of the opposition National Front in parliament.
In the summer of 2007, as calls for "regime change" and a pre-emptive attack on Iran's nuclear program escalated in Washington, Tehran formally changed its policy toward the U.S. in Afghanistan. Previously, according to Iranian diplomats, Tehran's position was that even if the U.S. attacked Iran, Iran would not respond in Afghanistan. Iran's bilateral interest in stability in Afghanistan and in supporting the Karzai government as a bulwark against the Taliban and al-Qaida outweighed any advantage that would result from attacking the U.S. presence. If, however, Iran were attacked by the U.S. from Afghanistan, it might indeed respond there. Iran had opposed the mention of NATO in the January 2006 Afghanistan Compact and had called for a timetable for the withdrawal of foreign troops, but it had agreed to the Compact despite these objections. At an ambassadors' conference in Tehran in August 2007, however, Iranian diplomats were told that if Iran were attacked by the United States, it would respond fully against U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, regardless of its bilateral interests in those two countries. "Afghanistan is our friend," one participant was quoted as saying, "But when your life is at stake you may have to sacrifice even your friends."
The U.S. continued to charge Iran with providing support to the Taliban, while remaining publicly silent over Pakistan's far larger support to the Taliban. Iran continued to deny such support, but even Afghan officials with no particular grudge against Iran claim that intelligence data support the contention that the Quds Force of the IRGC was supplying some IEDs and other supplies to groups fighting in Western Afghanistan. The amount supplied was sufficient to act as a warning or signal, not to change the military balance significantly. Iran clearly did not want the Taliban to win, but it did not want the U.S. to feel secure in Afghanistan either.
Iran (along with Russia and India) has also looked with skepticism on proposals to include the Taliban in any kind of a political settlement. According to Iranian diplomats, Tehran sees such ideas not as a broadening of the peace process but rather the U.S. returning to its policy of subcontracting Afghan policy to Pakistan. Such a move would be consistent with the U.S. realignment in Iraq, where the U.S. forces have armed and paid former groups of the Sunni resistance, while publicly charging Iran with destabilizing a government over which Tehran has enormous influence.
The Iranian suspicions have a basis in fact: Pakistani interlocutors often invoke the Iranian threat with Americans to convince them to eliminate the Northern Alliance from the Afghan government and strike a deal with the insurgents. There are also charges that the U.S. is using Afghanistan and Pakistan as bases for covert support to Baluch or Sunni Islamist insurgents in Iran, such as Jundullah. U.S. political leaders often issue statements naming Iran as the main state sponsor of terrorism, at the same time that U.S. intelligence agencies have unambiguously identified Pakistan, especially al-Qaida controlled parts of the FATA, as the major source of international terrorist threats.
Alternative Approaches
The U.S. government should first of all recognize privately and publicly that it has many common interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan with Iran, whatever differences it may have on other issues. During the first few years of the Afghanistan operation (through the ambassadorship of Zalmay Khalilzad, who left in 2005), the U.S. and Iran carried on regular discussions on subjects of mutual interest in Kabul. The U.S. should offer to renew such discussions with no further conditions. Several officials of the government of Iran, who may not represent the current policy, have asked to renew such talks, especially to exchange information on the threat from al-Qaida in the FATA.
There is also room for discussion on many specific issues, including counter-narcotics, economic cooperation, and border security. One issue that may require U.S.-Iranian cooperation is the need to hold a presidential election in September 2009, according to the Afghan Constitution. The security conditions are hardly conducive to such an election; even if it were held, the results are much more likely to be contested in the streets than were the results in 2004. Iran is in a position of influence with many of the leaders who might challenge President Karzai and can either aggravate or mitigate the aftermath. If the security situation worsens to the point that it may not be possible to organize a contested election, Iran's cooperation would be indispensable for convincing key leaders to accept any alternative, such as a Loya Jirga.
It is not clear what the reaction of the Iranian government would be to such offers at this point. Those in the foreign policy establishment who had cooperated with the U.S. in Afghanistan have been sidelined in the past year in favor of more hard-line figures. It may be that, while President Ahmadinejad is ideologically committed to an apocalyptic style of politics, conservative members of the Iranian establishment are more concerned with the issue of "regime change." As long as the U.S. maintains a significant level of ambiguity about its support for forcibly overthrowing or subverting the Islamic Republic, Tehran is not likely to make its common interests with the U.S. in Afghanistan (or Iraq) a higher priority than strategic opposition. The obstacle is not the willingness of the U.S. to use force (as in repeated statements by the administration and presidential candidates that "all options remain on the table"), but the objective for which force might be used: regime change.
It might well be possible to take incremental actions as confidence building measures, such as those mentioned above (open dialogue, exchange of information, operational collaboration on technical issues, including counter-narcotics interdiction). But the U.S. will not be able to determine how far it can progress on these tracks until it tries. Even small attempts will reassure the Afghan government and increase the pressure on Pakistan by threatening to remove the monopoly it holds over U.S. logistical access to Afghanistan.
There is, however, a major strategic judgment to be revisited. The military and intelligence agencies of both Pakistan and Iran have systematically used asymmetrical warfare, including terrorism, as a tool of their security policy. Which of them poses a greater threat to U.S. national interest and international peace and security? How should responses to these two threats be balanced? Since the Iranian revolution, the U.S. has overreacted to the Iranian threat and engaged in systematic appeasement of Pakistan, which is now home to the leadership of both al-Qaida and the Taliban (both Afghan and Pakistani). These countries are rivals for influence in Afghanistan and are sponsoring competing infrastructure projects for road transport and energy trade. Iran and India are building a combined rail and road link from the Iranian port of Chah Bahar to Afghanistan's major highway. Pakistan, with Chinese aid, is building the port of Gwadar in Baluchistan, aiming at a north-south route to Central Asia. "Taliban" regularly attack Indian road building crews in southwest Afghanistan, and Pakistan charges that India is supporting Baluch insurgents from its consulates in Afghanistan.
A reevaluation of the threats originating in Iran and Pakistan should lead to a recalibration of U.S. policy in Afghanistan to tilt away from Pakistan and more toward Iran. Yet it would be wrong and destructive to treat Pakistan with the type of enmity now reserved for Iran. Like Iran, Pakistan's policy is motivated by a combination of genuine security threats, ideological aspirations, and institutional interest. In Pakistan's more open political system, it is far easier for the U.S. to engage with allies inside the country against the security services whose covert policies the U.S. finds threatening.
Ultimately, U.S. interests would be best served by supporting efforts to extend and improve governance and security in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, thereby depriving al-Qaida and its epigones of refuge on either side of the border. Using Afghanistan as a base for anti-Iran policies handicaps the U.S. in pressing for Pakistani cooperation, thus undermining one of the country's most important strategic objectives. Of course, such recalibration will also require shifts in Iranian policy away from the path it has taken. Clearly abandoning any U.S. agenda of forcible regime change in Iran will make such a shift much more likely.
Barnett R. Rubin is Director of Studies at the Center for International Cooperation (CIC), New York University. He has written widely on Afghanistan and the region, was an advisor to Ambassador Brahimi during the Bonn conference, and consulted on the writing of Afghanistan's constitution. Sara Batmanglich is a program officer at CIC.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Afghanistan is one of several contexts in which the long-term common interests of the U.S. and Iran have been overshadowed by the animus originating in the 1953 CIA-led coup in Iran and the Iranian revolution of 1979, to the detriment of the interests of the U.S., Iran, and Afghanistan. This confrontation has served the interests of the Pakistan military, Taliban, and al-Qaida. Re-establishing the basis for U.S.-Iranian cooperation in Afghanistan would provide significant additional leverage over Pakistan, on whose territory the leadership of both the Taliban and al-Qaida are now found.
During the first half of the Cold War (until the 1978 coup in Afghanistan and the 1979 revolution in Iran), Afghanistan was a non-aligned country with a Soviet-trained army wedged between the USSR and U.S. allies. In the 1970s, under the Nixon Doctrine, the U.S. supported efforts by the Shah of Iran to use his post-1973 oil wealth to support efforts by Afghan President Muhammad Daoud to lessen Kabul's dependence on the USSR. This ended with the successive overthrow of both Daoud and the Shah in 1978 and 1979. A U.S. close partnership with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan emerged as the primary means of maintaining U.S. influence in the Persian Gulf and its eastern flank. Support for Sunni Islamists in Afghanistan and an Islamist-oriented military regime in Pakistan formed parts of this strategy to repulse the USSR from its occupation of Afghanistan, begun in late 1979, and to isolate Iran.
The U.S. led support for the mujahidin based in Pakistan and a greatly enlarged Pakistani security establishment, with co-funding from Saudi Arabia and implementation largely in the hands of Pakistan's Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence. The ISI also nurtured the Sunni right wing in Pakistan to counter-balance the Pakistan People's Party and ethnic sub-nationalists. Revolutionary Iran, distracted by its war with Iraq, provided aid to Afghan Shi'a groups that supported the revolutionary line of Khomeini, but did not engage fully.
Post Soviet: Oil and Taliban
The dissolution of the USSR and independence of the Central Asian and Caucasus states in 1991-92 led to the disengagement of the U.S. from the region, reducing external support to the Pakistan-Saudi alliance and providing Iran with more opportunities for maneuver in Afghanistan. Iran broadened its contacts in Afghanistan from Shi'a groups to non-Pashtun groups more generally (including Sunnis and former government militias), helping to broker the formation of the so-called "Northern Alliance" during the 1992 collapse of the Najibullah government.
The opening of Central Asia and the Caspian region to the international oil and gas market created a new strategic stake. Russia aimed to maintain its monopoly on export of these resources through the former Soviet pipeline network. The U.S. sought to promote the autonomy of the Newly Independent States (as they were called) by supporting alternative pipeline routes and hydrocarbon development schemes. But the shortest and most secure routes from the former USSR's energy resources to the sea lay through Iran, which the U.S. had kept under sanctions since the Tehran embassy takeover.
Iran proposed to become the transport hub for both oil and gas, linking the Central Asian-Caspian region to the Persian Gulf. The main focus of U.S. hydrocarbon strategy was the route north and west of Iran, which ultimately led to the construction of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. Afghanistan played a role in the secondary theater of the southern and eastern outlet, as the U.S. mildly supported Pakistan's attempts to use the Taliban to provide a secure transport corridor from Pakistan to Turkmenistan via western Afghanistan. Iran saw this as part of the U.S. strategy of encircling and containing Iran.
When Lakhdar Brahimi became the UN Secretary-General's Special Envoy for Afghanistan in 1997, he found that the Government of Iran believed that the U.S., Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia were jointly supporting the Taliban in continuation of their previous policies. Iran consequently saw the Taliban as the spear-point of its strategic opponent and joined with Russia, India, and the Central Asian states in an effort to support and supply the Northern Alliance. Iran moved beyond its ideological support for Shi'a parties to a strategic policy of supporting all anti-Taliban forces. It settled its differences over Tajikistan with Russia, and the two states brokered the 1997 peace agreement in order to assure a consolidated rear for the Northern Alliance.
Events in August 1998 turned both the U.S. and Iran further against the Taliban. With Pakistan's assistance, the Taliban captured control of most of northern Afghanistan; Pakistani extremists under Taliban command massacred nine Iranian diplomats in Mazar-i Sharif, leading Iran to mobilize troops on the border. Diplomacy by Brahimi averted open warfare. The same week, al-Qaida, then operating out of the Taliban's Kandahar headquarters, attacked the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. Consequently the U.S. began intelligence cooperation with the Northern Alliance. The State Department conducted a dialogue with Iran within the framework of the UN-convened "Six plus Two" group, which included Afghanistan's neighbors, the U.S., and Russia. Pakistan became increasingly isolated in the group. The U.S. and Russia jointly approved Security Council sanctions against the Taliban and al-Qaida, with the support of Iran and against the wishes of Pakistan, which flouted the sanctions.
Since 9/11
After 9/11, despite some jockeying for relative advantage, Russia, Iran, India and the United States ultimately cooperated to defeat the Taliban and al-Qaida in Afghanistan, and to establish the new Afghan government. Not only did Iran cooperate with the United States, Russia actively helped it establish support bases in Central Asia. Pakistan was politically marginalized in the process.
U.S.-Iranian cooperation occurred both in the field, in Tajikistan and Afghanistan, and in diplomacy, where I personally witnessed it. According to Iranian diplomatic sources, members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, Sipah-i Pasdaran) cooperated with the CIA and U.S. Special Operations Forces in supplying and funding the commanders of the Northern Alliance. During the war in the fall of 2001, both Russia and Iran wavered between supporting the reconquest of power by President Burhanuddin Rabbani and the plan for a broader political settlement supported by the followers of Ahmad Shah Massoud, the UN, and the U.S.
At the UN Talks on Afghanistan in Bonn, Germany, which negotiated the agreements governing the political transition in Afghanistan, U.S. and Iranian envoys James Dobbins and Javad Zarif cooperated closely on all major issues. Zarif supported efforts to frustrate Rabbani's goal of preventing the meeting from reaching agreement in the hope of consolidating his own power and forestalling formation of a broader government. Zarif's last-minute intervention with the Northern Alliance delegation chair, Yunus Qanuni, convinced the latter to reduce the number of cabinet posts he demanded in the interim administration.
The U.S. and Iran jointly insisted that the Bonn agreement contain a timetable for national elections and require the Afghan administration to cooperate in the fight against terrorism and drugs. Dobbins had to overcome resistance from hard-liners in the Department of Defense in order to cooperate with Iran, but his brief from Secretary of State Colin Powell enabled him to do so. Zarif, affiliated with the reformist trend of President Muhammad Khatami, may similarly have had to overcome resistance. In informal conversation, where I was present as a member of the UN delegation, U.S. diplomats told the Iranians that other issues prevented broader cooperation; the Iranians replied by asking to discuss all issues between the two countries.
The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarded these events as an opportunity to increase cooperation with the U.S. from Afghanistan to a wider set of issues. Dobbins reports that Iranian officials later offered to work under U.S. command to assist in building the Afghan National Army. U.S.-Iranian cooperation in building the Afghan security forces would have constituted a major investment in realignment to the detriment of Pakistan, whose military counted on monopolizing the role as the U.S.'s intermediaries with Afghanistan as leverage to assure the U.S.-Pakistan military supply relationship.
The Bush administration, however, rejected the initiative. Instead, it charged Iran with "harboring" an Afghan opposition figure and Islamist leader, Gulbiddin Hekmatyar, who was supported by U.S. aid to the mujahidin in the 1980s, and who had sought refuge in Tehran after having been abandoned by Pakistan for the Taliban in 1995. Iran expelled him. U.S. officials also charged that Iran was establishing influence in Herat, which would be somewhat akin to accusing the U.S. of exercising influence over northern Mexico. Additionally, the U.S. alleged that members of al-Qaida had taken refuge in Iran. Some may have done so with the collaboration of local IRGC commanders, but the overwhelming fact was that the surviving core leadership of al-Qaida all made its way to Pakistan, where their logistics and networks had been based and where they remained.
Afghan in the Middle
President Bush signaled decisively that cooperation in Afghanistan would not lead to a broader rapprochement with Iran when he included Iran in the "Axis of Evil" in his January 2002 State of the Union speech. Subsequently he also named Pakistan as the U.S.'s closest non-NATO ally. In this, the Bush administration showed that the events of 9/11 had not at all dissuaded it from perpetuating the historic mistake of considering Afghanistan a sideshow and subordinating policy toward that country to broader strategic interests in the Persian Gulf and Middle East, above all, the conflict with Iran.
Even the revelation that Pakistan had been the main source of nuclear weapons proliferation to Iran, North Korea, and Libya, did not change the U.S. orientation. Pakistan's actual nuclear weapons and proliferation activity were considered less threatening than Iran's potential ones. The Bush administration also failed even to monitor Pakistan's activities in support of a revived Taliban and the development of a new safe haven for al-Qaida in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.
The Afghan government responded to the growing threat, which it saw as mainly coming from Pakistan, by asking the U.S. to sign a Declaration for Strategic Partnership, which Presidents Karzai and Bush did in Washington in May 2005. Tehran responded by asking President Karzai to sign a declaration of strategic partnership with Iran that, among its provisions, committed Afghanistan not to permit its territory to be used for military or intelligence operations against Iran. The message was clear: Iran would accept Afghanistan's strategic partnership with the United States, but only if it is not directed against Iran.
President Karzai responded that he would like to sign such a declaration, but that his government was not in a position to prevent the United States from using its territory against Iran. The Iranians said that they knew that, but would like such a statement anyway, and that without such a declaration, President Karzai would not be welcome in Tehran for the August 2005 inauguration of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. A phone call to President Karzai from a cabinet officer in Washington forbade the Afghan President from signing any such declaration or attending the inauguration. A few months later, in January 2006, another phone call forbade Karzai to travel to Tehran to sign economic agreements.
In early 2007, Washington reported that Iran had started to supply sophisticated arms to the Taliban in western Afghanistan. Iran had also increased political and military support to the former Northern Alliance, which had formed the core of the opposition National Front in parliament.
In the summer of 2007, as calls for "regime change" and a pre-emptive attack on Iran's nuclear program escalated in Washington, Tehran formally changed its policy toward the U.S. in Afghanistan. Previously, according to Iranian diplomats, Tehran's position was that even if the U.S. attacked Iran, Iran would not respond in Afghanistan. Iran's bilateral interest in stability in Afghanistan and in supporting the Karzai government as a bulwark against the Taliban and al-Qaida outweighed any advantage that would result from attacking the U.S. presence. If, however, Iran were attacked by the U.S. from Afghanistan, it might indeed respond there. Iran had opposed the mention of NATO in the January 2006 Afghanistan Compact and had called for a timetable for the withdrawal of foreign troops, but it had agreed to the Compact despite these objections. At an ambassadors' conference in Tehran in August 2007, however, Iranian diplomats were told that if Iran were attacked by the United States, it would respond fully against U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, regardless of its bilateral interests in those two countries. "Afghanistan is our friend," one participant was quoted as saying, "But when your life is at stake you may have to sacrifice even your friends."
The U.S. continued to charge Iran with providing support to the Taliban, while remaining publicly silent over Pakistan's far larger support to the Taliban. Iran continued to deny such support, but even Afghan officials with no particular grudge against Iran claim that intelligence data support the contention that the Quds Force of the IRGC was supplying some IEDs and other supplies to groups fighting in Western Afghanistan. The amount supplied was sufficient to act as a warning or signal, not to change the military balance significantly. Iran clearly did not want the Taliban to win, but it did not want the U.S. to feel secure in Afghanistan either.
Iran (along with Russia and India) has also looked with skepticism on proposals to include the Taliban in any kind of a political settlement. According to Iranian diplomats, Tehran sees such ideas not as a broadening of the peace process but rather the U.S. returning to its policy of subcontracting Afghan policy to Pakistan. Such a move would be consistent with the U.S. realignment in Iraq, where the U.S. forces have armed and paid former groups of the Sunni resistance, while publicly charging Iran with destabilizing a government over which Tehran has enormous influence.
The Iranian suspicions have a basis in fact: Pakistani interlocutors often invoke the Iranian threat with Americans to convince them to eliminate the Northern Alliance from the Afghan government and strike a deal with the insurgents. There are also charges that the U.S. is using Afghanistan and Pakistan as bases for covert support to Baluch or Sunni Islamist insurgents in Iran, such as Jundullah. U.S. political leaders often issue statements naming Iran as the main state sponsor of terrorism, at the same time that U.S. intelligence agencies have unambiguously identified Pakistan, especially al-Qaida controlled parts of the FATA, as the major source of international terrorist threats.
Alternative Approaches
The U.S. government should first of all recognize privately and publicly that it has many common interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan with Iran, whatever differences it may have on other issues. During the first few years of the Afghanistan operation (through the ambassadorship of Zalmay Khalilzad, who left in 2005), the U.S. and Iran carried on regular discussions on subjects of mutual interest in Kabul. The U.S. should offer to renew such discussions with no further conditions. Several officials of the government of Iran, who may not represent the current policy, have asked to renew such talks, especially to exchange information on the threat from al-Qaida in the FATA.
There is also room for discussion on many specific issues, including counter-narcotics, economic cooperation, and border security. One issue that may require U.S.-Iranian cooperation is the need to hold a presidential election in September 2009, according to the Afghan Constitution. The security conditions are hardly conducive to such an election; even if it were held, the results are much more likely to be contested in the streets than were the results in 2004. Iran is in a position of influence with many of the leaders who might challenge President Karzai and can either aggravate or mitigate the aftermath. If the security situation worsens to the point that it may not be possible to organize a contested election, Iran's cooperation would be indispensable for convincing key leaders to accept any alternative, such as a Loya Jirga.
It is not clear what the reaction of the Iranian government would be to such offers at this point. Those in the foreign policy establishment who had cooperated with the U.S. in Afghanistan have been sidelined in the past year in favor of more hard-line figures. It may be that, while President Ahmadinejad is ideologically committed to an apocalyptic style of politics, conservative members of the Iranian establishment are more concerned with the issue of "regime change." As long as the U.S. maintains a significant level of ambiguity about its support for forcibly overthrowing or subverting the Islamic Republic, Tehran is not likely to make its common interests with the U.S. in Afghanistan (or Iraq) a higher priority than strategic opposition. The obstacle is not the willingness of the U.S. to use force (as in repeated statements by the administration and presidential candidates that "all options remain on the table"), but the objective for which force might be used: regime change.
It might well be possible to take incremental actions as confidence building measures, such as those mentioned above (open dialogue, exchange of information, operational collaboration on technical issues, including counter-narcotics interdiction). But the U.S. will not be able to determine how far it can progress on these tracks until it tries. Even small attempts will reassure the Afghan government and increase the pressure on Pakistan by threatening to remove the monopoly it holds over U.S. logistical access to Afghanistan.
There is, however, a major strategic judgment to be revisited. The military and intelligence agencies of both Pakistan and Iran have systematically used asymmetrical warfare, including terrorism, as a tool of their security policy. Which of them poses a greater threat to U.S. national interest and international peace and security? How should responses to these two threats be balanced? Since the Iranian revolution, the U.S. has overreacted to the Iranian threat and engaged in systematic appeasement of Pakistan, which is now home to the leadership of both al-Qaida and the Taliban (both Afghan and Pakistani). These countries are rivals for influence in Afghanistan and are sponsoring competing infrastructure projects for road transport and energy trade. Iran and India are building a combined rail and road link from the Iranian port of Chah Bahar to Afghanistan's major highway. Pakistan, with Chinese aid, is building the port of Gwadar in Baluchistan, aiming at a north-south route to Central Asia. "Taliban" regularly attack Indian road building crews in southwest Afghanistan, and Pakistan charges that India is supporting Baluch insurgents from its consulates in Afghanistan.
A reevaluation of the threats originating in Iran and Pakistan should lead to a recalibration of U.S. policy in Afghanistan to tilt away from Pakistan and more toward Iran. Yet it would be wrong and destructive to treat Pakistan with the type of enmity now reserved for Iran. Like Iran, Pakistan's policy is motivated by a combination of genuine security threats, ideological aspirations, and institutional interest. In Pakistan's more open political system, it is far easier for the U.S. to engage with allies inside the country against the security services whose covert policies the U.S. finds threatening.
Ultimately, U.S. interests would be best served by supporting efforts to extend and improve governance and security in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, thereby depriving al-Qaida and its epigones of refuge on either side of the border. Using Afghanistan as a base for anti-Iran policies handicaps the U.S. in pressing for Pakistani cooperation, thus undermining one of the country's most important strategic objectives. Of course, such recalibration will also require shifts in Iranian policy away from the path it has taken. Clearly abandoning any U.S. agenda of forcible regime change in Iran will make such a shift much more likely.
Barnett R. Rubin is Director of Studies at the Center for International Cooperation (CIC), New York University. He has written widely on Afghanistan and the region, was an advisor to Ambassador Brahimi during the Bonn conference, and consulted on the writing of Afghanistan's constitution. Sara Batmanglich is a program officer at CIC.
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