PAKISTAN: Strategic reorientation

Source: The News, Pakistan
WebLink: http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=187773



Monday, July 13, 2009
By Talat Masood

There comes a time in the history of nations when leaders have to take fundamental decisions to change course. History is replete with such examples. Deng Xiaoping decided to shift focus from ideological Puritanism of the Maoist era to developing national economy and giving it the highest priority. He had no qualms in abandoning the deep seated doctrines of communist system and borrowing the model of capitalist economies and adapting it to local conditions. To achieve this goal, foreign policy of peaceful coexistence with neighbours was crafted and close economic and trade relations with US and the West were developed. This paradigm change ushered in unprecedented prosperity and China progressed more in the last 30 than in the previous 1,000 years. India’s landmark decision, taken under the able stewardship of Dr Manmohan Singh in 1989 as finance minister, to move away from a highly centralised socialist economy to a free market transformed the face of India. This coupled with its strategic partnership with US and a proactive foreign policy including a cooperative relationship with China has facilitated India’s rapid economic growth. In both these cases leadership focused on the centrality of economic growth as a key factor and rightly expected it would strengthen other elements of national power. Indeed through this pragmatic strategic shift leaders of two countries populated by over a billion people each were able to achieve national cohesion and internal stability. We have another example of late President De Gaulle, who realising the extreme debilitating affects of protracted Algerian war took the courageous decision to withdraw from Algeria. France since then has not looked back.

Pakistan today is facing one of its greatest challenge and literally standing on a precipice. It is battling against multiple major insurgencies and struggling to cope with wide spread violence that has taken deep roots in society. And to keep its distressed economy afloat it is shackled to the IMF. There is no doubt external circumstances have contributed to where we are, but we cannot absolve ourselves for the erroneous policies pursued, especially in the last four decades. It is crucial that civilian and military leadership undertakes a major review of our strategic posture.

Given the crisis prone relationship between India and Pakistan and the Indian force deployment and postures Pakistan had to position the bulk of its forces to face India. Pakistan’s relatively narrow geophysical shape is such that our major cities and communication lines are too close to the border and vulnerable. But all this has to be reviewed in the present context. First, it would be madness on the part of India to attack Pakistan. History also bears out that it is Pakistan that initiated the 1948, 1965 and Kargil adventure. Second, India cannot ignore Pakistan’s nuclear capability and the consequences of initiating a conflict. Third, India is committed to its economic development and has global ambitions and would not like to be distracted in a military conflict. Fourth, it is in the interest of the international community that India and Pakistan normalise their relationship.

In any case Pakistan’s immediate threat is internal and the external threat of India can be far better neutralised and in all likelihood diminish once we are internally more stable and democratically strengthened.

Moreover, urgency in tackling the internal threat stems from several factors. First, if the US and NATO forces are unable to subdue the Taliban in Afghanistan or if they make a political compromise of sorts then it will give a big boost to Taliban on our side. This brings the point that time is not on our side.

Army for obvious reasons is avoiding fighting on multiple fronts and for this reason had not engaged operationally Mullah Nazir and Gul Bahadur. And probably would have preferred a status quo with them, but the ambush laid by insurgents in Mullah Gul Bahadur’s area of influence forced the Army to respond. Nonetheless focus has to remain on Baitullah Mehsud and defeating or neutralising him is crucial as other Taliban leaders would be hedging their positions depending on how the fortunes of counterinsurgency operations swing in this area. Success in South Waziristan thus acquires added significance. The tactical advantage that the Army enjoyed in Swat is not available in South Waziristan. Swat is landlocked and the Army was able to close in from all sides- Buner, Shangla, Dir and Malakand and squeeze the militants. South Waziristan borders Afghanistan and North Waziristan and on both sides there are tribes that are willing to support the insurgency and share a common ideology.

The threat from Taliban is total. Taliban are a threat to the economy, politics, Constitution and indeed to our way of life. More significantly, Taliban are a threat to the world, including that to China and the Muslim world.

As regards controlling the jihadi outfits of LeT and LJ and others are concerned these are now not only militant organisations but also a significant part of our social structure. They in guise of other names are operating in Kashmir earthquake relief camps, in IDPs and spread across the country performing social services. Needless to mention, that there are many supporters of theirs in media and other branches of civil society and government.

In this environment strategic redirection would be a Herculean undertaking and require a minimum generational effort. It has to be a well thought out process having a national consensus. Military power alone will not be able to prevail. Apart from the military operations the government will have to have a comprehensive plan to address the basic causes that have given rise to militancy. For achieving enduring solutions high priority has to given to governance, that includes maximum attention on education, health, improving economy, providing justice and security and reducing inequalities.

In the months to come Pakistan faces fateful choices. We will need all the prudence and inner strength to carve our future otherwise militant and extremist forces will shape it for us.

The writer is a lieutenant-general. Email: talat@comsats.net.pk