The Financial Crisis Explained: Funny Video

Family legacy and the Varun effect

http://news. rediff.com/ column/2009/ mar/27/guest- column-tarun- vijay-on- dynasty-and- the-varun- effect.htm


Tarun Vijay

March 27, 2009

Those who opposed the Ayodhya temple movement, wore silence over the plight of Kashmiri Hindus, damaged the Ram Sethu and denied Lord Rama ever existed, denied the violence at the Godhra railway station, and embraced the butchers of 1984, are collectively gunning at Varun Gandhi's political life.

Column after column by Padma Shris in the media have created an atmosphere where supporting Varun has become a sin. Why? The simple reason is that the farmhouse of Gandhi-Nehru politics has been broken and a scion of the family chose to speak out as his conscience directed.

More than what Varun said or didn't say, it is the hurt and bewilderment over the loss of a Gandhi to the saffron brigade that has made the media and anti-Hindutva politicos react with such venom and acid. He was not heard, not given a chance to present his case, nor did forensic experts examine the so-called proof in the form of a CD containing his speech.

Varun has suddenly dwarfed the media-supported Rahul.

Nobody has ever heard a dynasty member to say with understandable assertion that he or she is a Hindu. Rather, they have always tried to look differently at things. They banned Hindu organisations, imposed the Emergency, removed basic human rights, never willingly facilitated the Sikh massacre probe, rewarded hardened criminals, made alliance with those who were convicted for murder or were facing scandalous charges, had the Muslim League join the government after Partition. Yet, they are nice, decent, peace-loving, patriotic democrats who love to tell others: 'Go read the Gita.'

When Indian soldiers were fighting Pakistani marauders in 1947, we didn't have enough jeeps. So orders were placed with the British company and supply demanded immediately. Our high commissioner in London V K Krishna Menon, Pandit Nehru's blue-eyed boy, messed it up. The jeeps reached a year late.
That was the first scandal in independent India.

We lost Gilgit, Baltistan and Skardu. We lost Aksai Chin because the government in New Delhi didn't know the exact boundaries and so no patrolling was being done there.
In all we have lost 125,000 square km to the Pakistanis and Chinese during Congress rule.
Plus we had a bad dream called 1962.

At that time our ordnance factories were making coffee machines as Pandit Nehru openly argued against having a well-equipped large army for defence. 'Who is going to attack us?' he would ask.

And people still remember the mysterious death of Dr Syama Prasad Mookerjee, who simply wanted Kashmir to be a part of India like Bihar or Bengal and the permit system to enter the valley be abolished. Kashmir had two rulers then, its ruler was called Sadr e Riyasat or 'head of state', and it had a prime minister. Mookerjee's martyrdom compelled the Nehru government to remove the permit system and the two heads of state.

Then we had the Mundhra scandal, the Nagarwala case, the L N Mishra murder. The Jana Sangh's fast-emerging leader Deendayal Upadhyaya was murdered. A Congress leader canvassed openly against the official Presidential candidate and supported her own choice as independent nominee. The original Congress symbol was a pair of oxen. After the official Congress broke up, they got the hand as a temporary symbol till the case is finally settled. It would never be.

Opposing Sonia Gandhi's sudden rise in politics only on the grounds of her foreign origin were leaders like Sharad Pawar and P A Sangma. Old Congressmen still feel sad that they lost dynamic and promising leaders of substance like Rajesh Pilot, Madhavrao Scindia and Jitendra Prasada, who could have steered the Congress on an entirely different and strong nationalist course. And a veteran like Sitaram Kesri was humiliated no end.

The only non-dynasty prime minister to run a Congress government for full five years successfully was insulted even in his death and his body-in-state was not allowed to enter the Congress headquarters in New Delhi. An airport in his home state to be named after him was opposed to by Congressmen although the proposal was put forth by an Opposition leader.

This is how they treat their party leaders not belonging to the family. They amended, abused and twisted the Constitution, put the entire Opposition behind bars for an undisclosed period and were harsh on the unyielding masses.
Yet, they are the democrats and secular lighthouse of freedom of expression and liberty.

They kept India backward in such a planned manner that even after 62 years of independence we are yet to have a spacious functional airport in the national capital, 70,000 farmers committed suicide in one year, decorated soldiers returned their medals in protest and a movie on our poverty-stricken 'slum dogs' fetches the Oscar. And they loved illegal infiltrators for the sake of their votes -- and still they say they are the inheritors of a freedom struggle that demanded the ouster of aliens.

No electoral reforms, no police reforms or strengthening their morale and weapons, the administration is still run the way it functioned during the Sahebs; and despite having won a well-fought war in 1971 we couldn't settle the Kashmir issue or control the jihadi tail-wagger in the neighbourhood.

Minorities were so well supported in Congress regimes that in the sixth decade after independence they felt a need to provide special crutches for them. Show the 'M' card and get the privilege, became the new secular psalm, further shrinking the space and opportunities for the condemned majority.
More than anything else they tried to wreck the morale of the assertive Hindus who faced the onslaught of invaders for 12 centuries with unparalleled bravery and with invincible spirit to protect their culture and the fragrance of the land. They deserved to be comforted most after a fractured independence and a massacre that was thrust upon them by a weak Congress leadership. Yet, a large section of Hindus today feel cheated and anguished.
They form governments in 12 states, prove they can run the country beautifully with a coalition of 25 parties with diametrically opposed ideologies. And one of their Swayamsewaks unfurled the tricolour six times from the ramparts of the Red Fort as the prime minister, impressed world leaders and the international media with a record of infrastructure- building, communication revolution and women's empowerment, chose a Muslim to be the President and conducted Pokhran II by fooling the CIA's 'eyes', and resisted extraordinary world pressure and sanctions.
Yet, they are called anti-development, anti-women, even anti-social. In not a single so-called mainstream media outlet are their views published, but every news item is scanned to hurl stones on them through editorialising on the front-page.
Still, they are the very objective face of our independent media.
The choicest abuses used by 'decent guarantors of the freedom of expression' columnists and editorial-writers can be collected as a bouquet of India's uncivilised lexicon, yet their films against the very spirit of Hindu nature get widely supported by a regime that survives on Hindu money and votes.
Their love for development and secularism is so deep that they can send dredgers to destroy a million years of faith and marine life because that was Ram Sethu, but won't dare to touch a six feet by six feet dargah in the middle of the road blocking the highway and causing accidents, for fear of annoying a vote-bank.
And then they say, they are the future of India.


Tarun Vijay is Director, Dr Syama Prasad Mookerjee Research Foundation, New Delhi

Cityboy: Beer and Loathing in the Square Mile

Cityboy: Beer and Loathing in the Square Mile

by Geraint Anderson (Author)
READ HIS BLOG

The Interview

Source: The London Paper

Our most popular columnist is hanging up his bowler and coming out of the closet, having written a book based on his experiences. He speaks to Dominic Midgley
City Boy was sitting on a beach in Goa with a margarita in one hand and a joint in the other when he made the decision to change his life.

He had just discovered the size of his annual bonus after a call to the office.

I didn't know whether I was going to be given half a million or be sacked," he says. "If they had found out about the column I probably would have been sacked. I was told it was the former. In fact it was my biggest bonus ever.

"I breathed a sigh of relief and planned my escape. I'd always been ambivalent about my career due to being brought up in a left-wing, religious household and the fact I was a former hippy. I'd gone into the City in 1996 with the intention of doing only five years but, like the bank robber in the film, I kept doing one last job.

"I didn't want to end up like so many people in the City, alcoholic, red-faced, fat and on my second divorce. The City is full of people like that.

"Thanks to thelondonpaper I now had a potential alternative career as a writer."

The break he refers to was the chance to write a weekly column about the City. He didn't pull any punches. City Boy broke the Square Mile's strict code of silence to produce a searingly honest column that covered everything from the toll his punishing schedule put on his love life to battles with his conscience over the size of his whopping annual bonuses. As he once wrote: "Last Thursday night turned into a bit of a big one. If I had five grand for every time I've said that, over the past ten years, I'd be almost as rich as I actually am."

His notoriety meant a number of rival newspapers made attempts to discover his identity with a view to poaching him, but City Boy's identity has remained a secret known only to a handful of intimates – until now.

The man who amused the Square Mile every week for 22 months is, we can reveal, a 35-year-old Cambridge history graduate called Geraint Anderson, who rose to become a joint team leader at Dresdner Kleinwort.

But from there his story begins to depart from the script.

Far from being an obnoxious right-winger, Anderson is the son of a working-class Labour MP who sits in the Lords and remains left of centre. Despite an "exceedingly religious" upbringing, his rebellious streak was evident early on.

"I was expelled from my Montessori nursery aged four after an hour," he admits. "The teachers told my parents, 'He's not the kind of child we like here. He's too manic and he's hassling all the girls'.

"At 11, I was in hospital for three days for alcohol abuse. I was with two girls I was trying to impress. I stole a bottle of brandy and fell off a church hall roof and had my stomach pumped. I was close to death."

Spurred by the academic success of two brothers, he knuckled down and after supplementing his first degree with a masters from Sussex, he got a City job. The rest is history. Despite owning a four-bedroom house in Shepherd's Bush outright, and admitting to a "net asset value" of £2.5-£3m, Anderson is not your typical stockbroker.

"I drive a Cavalier my mother gave me that's 15-20 years old," he tells me. "Friends call it my fanny repellent and say, 'If you can still pull in that car you must be doing something right'."

And pull he can. "I split with someone I was going to marry two years ago and went into a tail-spin emotionally, making up for six years of faithfulness quickly," he says. "I did a Clegg or two in two years but I hope those days of madness are over. I'm not that wealthy but I do have a sort of financial equivalent of gaydar, gold-digger-dar. If I think a woman is interested in my money, I run a mile."

Anderson has written a book based on his experiences and aims to make his living as a writer and broadcaster. He finished it at the rate of 6,000 words a day while laid up after a scooter accident. It's presented as a novel rather than an autobiography and he stresses its characters and employers are not based on real people or banks. That said, like his column, you can't put it down.

---

City Boy - Beer And Loathing In The Square Mile
Who is City Boy? "He's every brash, suited FT-carrying idiot who ever pushed past you on the Tube. He's the egotistical buffoon who loudly brags about how much cash he's made on the market at otherwise pleasant dinner parties. He's the greedy, ruthless wanker whose actions are helping turn this world into the shit-hole it's rapidly becoming. For one period in my life, he was me."

Drawing on his experiences in the Square Mile, thelondonpaper's brilliant columnist City Boy is ready to lift the lid and reveal the truth about life in the City.

He is leaving the City, has written about his experiences in 'Cityboy – Beer And Loathing in the Square Mile', and has finally revealed his identity - burning all his bridges as he reveals explosive secrets about the dark underbelly of City life.

The book is on sale from 26 June, and The Times will publish extracts on June 19th and 20th.

tlp reader offer: 'Cityboy – Beer And Loathing in the Square Mile' - RRP £17.99. Pre-order it now for £16 (free P&P) - call 08700 703003

Read his full CV here, his personal profile here and leave your comments here.

CYBER WARFARE : Project Grey Goose Phase II Report On INDIA

Source: Sources and Methods
___________________
NOTE on INDIA Eastern Railways Website hacked by Pakistanis December 24 2008

India

The Eastern Railway Web Site Defacement

Action
On December 24, 2008, the Whackerz Pakistan Cr3w defaced India's Eastern Railway Website with the following announcement1: “Cyber war has been declared on Indian cyberspace by Whackerz-Pakistan” When clicked, a new window opened saying that “Mianwalian of Whackerz” has hacked the site in response to an Indian violation of Pakistani airspace; that Whackerz-Pakistan would continue to attack more Indian military and government Web sites as well as Indian financial institutions where they will destroy the records of their Indian customers.

India

The Eastern Railway Web Site Defacement

Action
On December 24, 2008, the Whackerz Pakistan Cr3w defaced India's Eastern Railway Website with the following announcement1: “Cyber war has been declared on Indian cyberspace by Whackerz-Pakistan” When clicked, a new window opened saying that “Mianwalian of Whackerz” has hacked the site in response to an Indian violation of Pakistani airspace; that Whackerz-Pakistan would continue to attack more Indian military and government Web sites as well as Indian financial institutions where they will destroy the records of their Indian customers.

Actors
Hacker Crew Members Also Known As Country affiliation Religious affiliation Attack history Whackerz Pakistan PakBrain, MianWalian, Fady911x, Saudia_Hacker, Ch33ta, and Iced_rose Jubni team Pakistan Muslim 8/2005: as Jubni, attacked India Institute of Technology Web sites at Mumbai, Guwahati, Kharagpur, and Chennai campuses. 12/2008: as Whackerz, attacked Eastern Railway Web site. Methods Defacements

1 http://www.financialexpress.com/news/Pak-hacker-attacks-E-Rlys-site-threatenscyber-war-on-India/402609/

This crew has been operating for at least 3 years, probably longer. This article1 refers to them as the Jubni team who attacked four India Institute of Technology Web sites in 2005. In the month of August, the websites of four IITs - Mumbai, Guwahati, Kharagpur and Chennai - were hacked and defaced by a group of Pakistani hackers who call themselves the Jubni team. The hackers claimed that some of the members of the group are Majeed, Jubni, Zohaib, Pak Brain, Mian Walian and Ch33ta. The ire of the group was directed towards India, USA and Israel. While the name of the group and some of its members have changed, the theme of being anti-India, USA, and Israel remains consistent.

[HAKR profiles for Whackerz members have been redacted from the public report]

Analysis
Whackerz-Pakistan is motivated by both nationalistic and religious allegiances, unlike their Russian or Chinese counterparts who are purely nationalistic. At least one of the members is Egyptian and two live in Canada so their geographical identity may be less important than their religious affiliation. Their stated preferred targets are India, Israel, and the United States, so besides their involvement in the Pak-India cyber conflict they may also be involved in the Israel-Palestine cyber attacks. At least half of its current membership are educated professionals in their 20s or older so this is a mature crew with financial resources and professional contacts in the international technology community. The employment by one of its members at a well-known global wireless communications company means that they are potentially both an external and internal threat.

1 http://archives.neohapsis.com/archives/isn/2005-q4/0323.html

___________________

Jeff Carr (who blogs at IntelFusion and runs GreyLogic) released his most recent report on the evolving state of cyberwar late last week and it is a good one. Focused primarily on three recent attacks, the report contains well-written, clear, evidence-based findings. Jeff's report goes beyond just the technical findings, however, and pulls the strings together in a way that will be of high interest to the non-technical reader as well.This is part 2 of the Grey Goose Project which uses an "open innovation intelligence model focusing on identifing and tracking Non-state hackers and the companies and governments that support them."Non-governmental versions of both Part 1 and 2 of the Grey Goose Report are available online. The non-gvernmental versions focus on the findings and conclusions derived therefrom. The governmental versions contain much more of the concrete evidence on which those findings/conclusions are based. The Government version can be requested via e-mail from a government e-mail account. Jeff indicated that it will also be available on A-Space and Intellipedia.(Full Disclosure: Jeff was kind enough to send an early copy of both reports for me to review prior to publication. I received no pay or compensation of any kind for providing feedback. I have no formal relationship with GreyLogic or Intelfusion other than Jeff's a friend and we both blog about the same kind of stuff.Bottomline: The reports were good when I got them and Jeff has only made them better since.)

---

Project Grey Goose Phase II Report:
The evolving state of cyber warfare

March 20, 2009

greylogic

About Project Grey Goose
Project Grey Goose is an Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) initiative launched on August 22, 2008 whose original remit was to examine how the Russian cyber war was conducted against Georgian Web sites and if the Russian government was involved or if it was entirely a grass roots movement by patriotic Russian hackers. Starting in 2009, Project Grey Goose has evolved into a formal business entity – GreyLogic; a consultancy and information services provider to governments. This report features GreyLogic's information and analysis services for Computer Network Exploitation and Cyber Intelligence. Western government agencies for Intelligence, Law Enforcement, and Defense are invited to contact GreyLogic for more information on our services.

Copyright 2009 GreyLogic All Rights Reserved

Executive Summary

Introduction
There has been a marked increase in cyber attacks by State and Non-State hackers since the Russia Georgia War of 2008. In addition to the cyber clashes resulting from Israel's Operation Cast Lead and the Web site defacement of India's Eastern Railway, the British government has reported thousands of cyber attacks occurring each day on its critical infrastructure.1 The French Embassies in Britain, the U.S., China, and Canada came under Chinese cyber attacks in December 2008.2 The government of Zimbabwe has been waging a cyber war against its opposition party for the past five years.3 As this report is being written, a 60 day U.S. cyber security review on how the U.S. government may best proceed to protect its cyberspace from a wide variety of attacks against U.S. financial infrastructure and national security threats on a daily basis.4 This report aims to answer the following questions by examining three different cyber events impacting almost a dozen nations: How effective is Social Network Analysis in Computer Network Exploitation? How critical is the ability to access black (classified) data in a cyber intelligence effort? Is there evidence that points to Russian government involvement in the Georgia cyber attacks of July and August 2008?

1 2 3 4

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/crime/article4592677.ece http://intelfusion.net/wordpress/?cat=413 http://concernedafricascholars.org/the-glass-fortress/ http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10159975-38.html

Our Key Findings
Eastern Railway Web Site
On December 24, 2008, a group that self identified as the Whackerz Pakistan defaced the Indian Eastern Railway Web site with a variety of financial threats against Indian citizens. Our findings indicate that: • • • At least three of the six members of Whackerz Pakistan are well-educated professionals, and at least two are employed in the technology industry. Their members' religious affiliation (Muslim) is at least as important as their Geopolitical allegiances (Pakistan). At least one Whackerz member represents an Insider Threat for his employer, a global wireless communications company based in North America.

Operation Cast Lead
Israel began a military assault on Hamas’s infrastructure in Gaza on December 27, 2008, called “Operation Cast Lead.” A cyber backlash by Arabic hackers targeted thousands of Israeli government and civilian Web sites. Our findings indicate that: • Unlike other instances of cyber conflicts (Chechnya, Estonia, Lithuania, Georgia, India), this conflict involved both State (Israel and possibly Iran) and Non-State hackers. Most of the Non-State Arabic hackers involved do not have the technical skill to carry out sophisticated network attacks, opting instead for small to midscale denial of service attacks and mass website defacements. We have not observed any zero day vulnerabilities exploited in these attacks. Instead, most attackers focused on old Web site vulnerabilities that had not been patched. This is the first instance of a voluntary botnet (“Help Israel Win”) used in a Cyber conflict where individuals voluntarily passed control of their own computers to the botnet host server.

•

•

•

The Russia Georgia Cyber War
This section follows up our Phase I investigation of the cyber component of the Russia/Georgia war of August 2008 by looking at question of attribution in two distinct parts: a) What can we tell by examining the network supporting the StopGerogia.ru forum b) Is there a link between the Kremlin and those involved in the cyber attacks against Georgian Web sites Our findings indicate that: • Russian military policy acknowledges the strategic value achieved by utilizing methods of cyber attacks which can appear to be acts of cyber crime or terrorism. The StopGeorgia.ru forum was part of a bulletproofed network that relied on shell companies and false WHOIS data to (a) prevent its closure through Terms of Service violations, and (b) to mask the involvement of the Russian FSB/GRU. By mimicking the structure of the Russian Business Network, a cyber criminal enterprise, it creates plausible deniability that it is a Kremlinfunded Information Operation (IO).

•

•

Nashi members have been involved in Cyber attacks against internal and external opponents of the Kremlin, up to and including the Estonia Cyber war. Since the Nashi receives some of its funding from the Kremlin, receives direction on focus areas from government officials, and has the favor of highly placed politicians, Nashi involvement is equivalent to Kremlin involvement.

Summary of Findings
Having examined three disparate cyber events in different regions of the world at a much deeper level than has heretofore been performed, we present the following conclusions: Non-State hackers rely on publicizing their exploits to build their online reputations. Thanks to this need for recognition among their peers, data mining foreign language forums and social media sites can produce meaningful results. It is not, however, sufficient in and of itself and should be combined with server-level data, as well as an examination of geopolitical events occurring around the time of the cyber attacks. Furthermore, when State interests are involved, a review of the Nation State's military doctrine related to Information Warfare is also important. If all of this information is available, then there is little need for accessing classified (black) data. In fact, the incorporation of black data can be counterproductive as it precludes the sharing of information between non-cleared international researchers which often adds speed and veracity to an otherwise challenging pursuit. The identification and prosecution of Non-State hackers who engage in these attacks can be an effective deterrent as shown by the Eastern Railway investigation. Although some of the members of Whackerz Pakistan were in the position to make good on their threats of causing financial harm to Indian citizens, nothing further has been done by this group. We believe that's at least partly due to the sharing of GreyLogic's investigative results with the FBI, RCMP, and CBI shortly after the initial incident occurred. In the case of possible Russian government involvement with the cyber attacks on Georgian government websites in July and August, 2008, the available evidence supports a strong likelihood of GRU/FSB planning and direction at a high level while relying on Nashi intermediaries and the phenomenon of crowdsourcing to obfuscate their involvement and implement their strategy.

1
India

The Eastern Railway Web Site Defacement
Action
On December 24, 2008, the Whackerz Pakistan Cr3w defaced India's Eastern Railway Website with the following announcement1: “Cyber war has been declared on Indian cyberspace by Whackerz-Pakistan” When clicked, a new window opened saying that “Mianwalian of Whackerz” has hacked the site in response to an Indian violation of Pakistani airspace; that Whackerz-Pakistan would continue to attack more Indian military and government Web sites as well as Indian financial institutions where they will destroy the records of their Indian customers.

Actors
Hacker Crew Members Also Known As Country affiliation Religious affiliation Attack history Whackerz Pakistan PakBrain, MianWalian, Fady911x, Saudia_Hacker, Ch33ta, and Iced_rose Jubni team Pakistan Muslim 8/2005: as Jubni, attacked India Institute of Technology Web sites at Mumbai, Guwahati, Kharagpur, and Chennai campuses. 12/2008: as Whackerz, attacked Eastern Railway Web site. Methods Defacements

1 http://www.financialexpress.com/news/Pak-hacker-attacks-E-Rlys-site-threatenscyber-war-on-India/402609/

This crew has been operating for at least 3 years, probably longer. This article1 refers to them as the Jubni team who attacked four India Institute of Technology Web sites in 2005. In the month of August, the websites of four IITs - Mumbai, Guwahati, Kharagpur and Chennai - were hacked and defaced by a group of Pakistani hackers who call themselves the Jubni team. The hackers claimed that some of the members of the group are Majeed, Jubni, Zohaib, Pak Brain, Mian Walian and Ch33ta. The ire of the group was directed towards India, USA and Israel. While the name of the group and some of its members have changed, the theme of being anti-India, USA, and Israel remains consistent.

[HAKR profiles for Whackerz members have been redacted from the public report]

Analysis
Whackerz-Pakistan is motivated by both nationalistic and religious allegiances, unlike their Russian or Chinese counterparts who are purely nationalistic. At least one of the members is Egyptian and two live in Canada so their geographical identity may be less important than their religious affiliation. Their stated preferred targets are India, Israel, and the United States, so besides their involvement in the Pak-India cyber conflict they may also be involved in the Israel-Palestine cyber attacks. At least half of its current membership are educated professionals in their 20s or older so this is a mature crew with financial resources and professional contacts in the international technology community. The employment by one of its members at a well-known global wireless communications company means that they are potentially both an external and internal threat.

1 http://archives.neohapsis.com/archives/isn/2005-q4/0323.html

2
Israel

Operation Cast Lead / Gaza Cyberwar
Action
Israel began a military assault on Hamas’s infrastructure in Gaza on December 27, 2008, called “Operation Cast Lead.” After almost a month into the operation, Palestinian officials declared the death toll had topped 1,000, and media reports carried images of massive property destruction and civilian casualties1. The exact number of Israeli or other websites that have been disrupted by hackers is unknown, but the number is well into the thousands. According to one estimate, the number reached 10,000 by the first week of January alone. While media coverage focuses on the most high profile hacks or defacements, this current cyber campaign is a “war of a thousand cuts,” with the cumulative impact on thousands of small businesses, vanity websites, and individual websites likely outweighing the impact of more publicized, larger exploits. However, successfully compromising higher profile websites not only brings more public attention, it compels businesses all over Israel to preventatively tighten security, costing money. For that reason the financial impact of infiltrating a few larger corporate websites may be as important as disrupting thousands of smaller sites.

1Overall death tolls, as well as the proportion of dead who are civilians rather than
militants, is currently disputed by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), but they admit to at least 900 people killed as of January 22, 2009. Lazaroff, Tovah and Yaakov Katz. “Israel Disputes Gaza Death Toll,” Jerusalem Post, January 22, 2009. http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1232292939271&pagename=JPost %2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Actors
Cold Zero: Cold Zero is a member of Team Hell. Unlike the majority of Team Hell members who are Egyptian, Cold Zero is Palestinian and is proficient in Hebrew. The Arabic Mirror credits him with 2485 Web site defacements, of which 779 occurred during Operation Cast Lead. His website is www.hackteach.net. According to a French language news source Zataz News, January 3, 2009, Cold Zero was arrested by Israeli authorities. The news source identified him as a 17 year old Israeli Arab. It reported that he appeared on January 6 before the Federal Court of Haifa, where the Israeli Justice Department alleged that he attacked commercial and political sites, mentioning the Likud Party website hack as well as an attack on the website of the Tel Aviv Maccabis basketball team. According to the same source, he worked with accomplices in Turkey, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere. He was caught in a “honey pot” set up by authorities. Authorities also uncovered his identity from a database stolen from Turkish hackers. Team Hell:

Team Hell self-identifies as a Saudi-based hackers group, usually consisting of Kaspersky, Jeddawi, Dr. Killer, BlackShell, RedHat, Ambt, and Cold Zero. Team Hell’s politically oriented-hacks include more than just Israeli sites. In April 2007, Team Hell hacked Al-Nusra, a Palestinian-focused Jihadist website. They left a message indicating they associated al-Nusra with religious deviancy. On websites they have defaced, Cold Zero and Team Hell have expressed support for the secular, nationalist Fatah party. This would explain why Team Hell would hack Al-Nusra, a Salafist-Jihadist website, even though it is also anti-Israel. The group has also defaced the website of the Syrian parliament2.

2 http://www.zone-h.org/component/option,com_mirrorwrp/Itemid,160/id,5573205/

Agd_Scorp/Peace Crew:

Agd_Scorp/Peace Crew are Turkish hackers who defaced NATO and US military Web sites in response to Operation Cast Lead. On three subdomains of mdw.army.mil, belonging to the US Army Military District of Washington, and on the NATO parliament site www.nato-pa.int, the group posted a message reading “Stop attacks u israel and usa! You cursed nations! One day muslims will clean the world from you.”3 The group also used a SQL Injection attack to deface the Web site of the Joint Force Headquarters of the National Capital Region.4 Jurm Team: Jurm Team is a Moroccan group that has partnered with both Agd_Scorp and Team Evil in defacements. They have recently defaced the Israeli portals for major companies or products, including Kia, Sprite, Fanta, and Daihatsu. Their members call themselves: Jurm, Sql_Master, CyberTerrorist, Dr. Noursoft, Dr. Win, J3ibi9a, Scriptpx //Fatna and Bant Hmida. C-H Team: C-H Team consists of two hackers or hacker teams: Cmos_Clr and hard_hackerz. C H Team targets Dutch and Israeli websites, leaving threatening messages in Hebrew on the latter. 5 The two are Algerian. Besides defacing sites, Cmos_Clr claims to have used a variant of the Bifrost Trojan horse in order to break into Israeli computers, infiltrating 18 individual machines.6 Hackers Pal: Hackers Pal is the administrator of the Hackers Hawks website, and has claimed 285 defacements of Israeli websites. He is a supporter of the secular Fatah party. Gaza Hacker Team: Gaza Hacker Team runs the website of the same name. They were responsible for defacing the Kadima party website on February 13. The team consists of six members: Lito, Le0n, Claw, Virus, Zero code, and Zero Killer.

3 McMillan, Robert. “Hackers Deface NATO, US Army Web Sites,” Computer World,
January 9, 2009. http://www.zone-h.org/content/view/15003/30/ 4 Ibid 5A mirror of one of C-H Team’s defacements can be seen here: http://www.arabicm.com/index.php?page=mirror&id=23550 6http://www.hackteach.org/cc/showthread.php?t=137613&page=2.

DNS Team:

DNS team is an active Arab hackers team focused primarily on apolitical hacking, however they occasionally exhibit politically motivated attacks such as targeting Web sites in Denmark and the Netherlands during the Fall of 2008 in retaliation for the cartoon controversy. They've also participated in recent anti-Israel hacks. DNS team maintains a hacking and security forum at http://www.v4-team.com/cc/. DZ Team:

DZ Team consists of Algerian and Egyptian hackers who use the aliases AoxideA, Maxi32, Skins, The Legend, Cyb3r-Devil, and the Moorish. They have defaced several Israeli Web sites including Vokswagon, Burger King, and Pepsi's Israeli portals, the Web site of israeli defense contractor BVR systems, the Kadima party Web site, and the Hillel Yaffe hospital Web site. Videos of the groups' successful defacements were posted to YouTube.7

7 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuRhHjYb8SQ

Ashianeh Security Group:

The Iranian Fars News Agency reported that the Ashianeh Security Group hacked 400 Israeli Web sites, including those of the Mossad and Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak.8 Since this group doesn't participate in online hacker forums, it may be Statesupported (Iran). Nimr al-Iraq: Nimr al-Iraq is credited with updating the al-Durrah Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) tool for use during Operation Cast Lead. He has also provided links to a Remote Administration Tool (RAT) program called hackattack9, which enables a hacker to gain remote control over another person's computer. According to his profile on soqor.net, Nimr al-Iraq is a 22 year old Iraqi named Mohammed Sattar al-Shamari and is listed as a former moderator on the site.

Analysis
Analysis of discussions on Arabic hacker forums and general pro-Jihad forums indicate that anti-Israeli hackers would like to carry out serious cyber attacks against Israeli targets, however, they do not have a demonstrated capability to carry out such attacks. Instead, their actions have been limited to small to mid-scale denial of service attacks and mass website defacements. They may also have attempted to compromise individual computers via Trojans, particularly the Bifroze Trojan, a variant of which was developed by members of the 3asfh hacker forum. They also discuss the desire to use viruses against Israeli computers, although the kind of viruses under discussion are relatively old and many computers would already have been updated with protections against them.

DDoS Attacks
Muslim hackers are using both indigenously developed and borrowed DDOS tools, and making them available for download on hacker forums. One tool, named after Mohammed al-Durra, a Palestinian child allegedly shot and killed by Israeli soldiers in 2000, was first developed in 2006. An updated version has been provided by Nimr al-Iraq for use in the current conflict. With the al-Durra program, a user voluntarily downloads the program and then 8 Fars News Agency, January 7, 2009 and January 10, 2009. Via World News Connection. 9 http://www.soqor.net/forums/hackattack-play-10000000000000000Percentt9646.html

checks to see what the target websites are on Arabic hacker forums. He then plugs in the target and the program will repeatedly send requests to it. When a sufficient number of people utilize the al-Durra program against a site, they can overwhelm it and bring it down. Other DDOS tools developed by hackers outside this community, such as hack tek, are also being used. Such tools do not require sophisticated technical skills or training, which make them useful in a political dispute such as the Gaza crisis, when there is a very large community globally willing to assist in cyber attacks against Israel, but not necessarily skilled enough for more sophisticated attacks.

Web Site Defacements
The hackers download vulnerability scanners from hacker forums to find websites with exploitable vulnerabilities. On the Arabic language forums, they have discussed using a few different methods, including SQL injection, xss, and other web server software vulnerabilities. In most cases, they are reusing previously released exploit code to attack known vulnerabilities picked up by vulnerability scanners. This is somewhat more difficult than the denial of service attacks, but is still not considered sophisticated on the larger spectrum of hacking activities. The vulnerabilities being exploited by these hackers have already been identified and patches and updates have been released to fix them. The only websites that are still vulnerable are those whose administrators have been lax in updating their software and downloading patches. There is no evidence that this community is locating “zero day” vulnerabilities at this time – those that have not yet been discovered.

Viruses and Trojans
Hacker forums reveal a desire to use viruses against Israeli targets but no evidence of success thus far. A couple of hackers have boasted of successfully using Trojans and RAT (Remote Administrations Tools) to gain wide access to individual Israeli computers. This could give them the ability to capture passwords and other important data, facilitating financial crime and harassment. However, there is not yet much evidence that they have been successful with these tools.

Israeli Retaliation
Israel and its supporters have also participated in this cyber conflict in a couple of ways. The Israeli government is behind an effort to recruit supporters who speak languages other than Hebrew – mostly new immigrants – to flood blogs with proIsrael opinions. The Israel Defense Forces has hacked a television station belonging to Hamas. Supporters of Israel have also been hacking pro-Palestinian Facebook groups, using fake login pages and phishing emails to collect the login details of group members. According to the administrators of one of the anti-Israeli hacker websites, Gaza Hacker Team, pro-Israel activists are also pressuring hosting companies to cut off service to hacker websites. After the Gaza Hacker Team defaced the Kadima party website, they reported that their US hosting company denied them service after being subjected to “Jewish” pressure. Voluntary Botnet: Perhaps the most creative tactic employed by Israel’s supporters is the development of a voluntary botnet. Developed by a group of Israeli hacktivists known as “Help Israel Win,” the distributed denial of service tool, called “Patriot,” is designed to attack anti-Israel websites. Once installed and executed, Patriot opens a connection to a server hosted by

Defenderhosting.com. It runs in the background of a PC and does not have a configurable user interface that allows the user to control which sites to attack. Rather, the server at defenderhosting.com likely updates the client with the IP addresses to target. “Help Israel Win” describe themselves as “a group of students who are tired of sitting around doing nothing while the citizens of Sderot and the cities around the Gaza Strip are suffering…” Their stated goal is to create “a project that unites the computer capabilities of many people around the world. Our goal is to use this power in order to disrupt our enemy’s efforts to destroy the state of Israel.” The Help Israel Win website is registered to Ron Shalit of Haifa, Israel.

3
Russia

Attribution and Bulletproof Networks
This section follows up our Phase I investigation of the cyber component of the Russia/Georgia war of August 2008 by looking at question of attribution in two distinct parts: c) What can we tell by examining the network supporting the StopGerogia.ru forum d) Is there a link between the Kremlin and those involved in the cyber attacks against Georgian Web sites

Creating a bulletproof network
A bulletproof network allows its customers a great degree of latitude in conducting operations that would otherwise constitute terms of service (TOS) violations.

StopGeorgia.ru
StopGeorgia.ru was a password-protected forum built with phpBB software and launched within 24 hours after the commencement of Russia's ground, sea, and air assault on the nation of Georgia on August 8, 2008. While cyber attacks occurred against Georgian government Web sites as early as July 21, 2008, this particular forum was not active until the day after the invasion. It provided hackers of all levels with vetted target lists, links to malware to be used to attack Georgian government Web sites, and expert advice for novice hackers (of which there were many). A WHOIS search on the StopGeorgia.ru domain revealed the following information: Domain Type Nserver Nserver State Person STOPGEORGIA.RU CORPORATE ns1.gost.in ns2.gost.in Registered, Delegated Private Person

Phone E-mail Registrar

+7 908 3400066 anac109@mail.ru NAUNET-REG-RIPN

NAUNET.RU
NAUNET is a Russian registrar that is blacklisted by the Spamhaus Project for providing cybercrime/spam/phish domains (Spamhaus SBL advisory #SBL67369 01 Dec 2008). The domain name StopGeorgia.ru was acquired at Naunet.ru. Part of the complaint against Naunet on file at Spamhaus is that it has knowingly accepted false information in violation of RPIN rules. In the Whois info for StopGeorgia.ru, the phone number of 7 908 3400066 and e-mail address anac1099mail.ru are both listed in the registrar information for a variety of Web sites selling things like fake passports, adult porn, and ATM skimmers. While the domain information for StopGeorgia.ru doesn't list a person's name, opting instead for the ubiquitous “private person”, other domains with the same telephone number and e-mail address have been registered under the name Andrej V Uglovatyi. Andrej V Uglovatyi, however, is most likely a fictitious person. A search on Yandex.com returns only two unique hits for the name. Considering the amount of data being collected online for individuals today, as well as the fact that Andrej V. Uglovatyi is purportedly conducting a number of businesses online, receiving so few hits can only be due to this name being a pseudonym used in shady domain registrations such as this one at www.dokim.ru (Creation of passports aned driver licenses for Russia and EU countries)l.

SteadyHost.ru
Performing a WHOIS on the IP address is an important step in the money trail process. Someone need to purchase time on a server to host the PHP forum. The Stopgeorgia.ru IP address is 75.126.142.110 which resolves to a small Russian company called SteadyHost (www.steadyhost.ru). The domain registration for Steadyhost.ru provides the following information: Domain Type Nserver Nserver State Person Phone E-mail Registrar Created STEADYHOST.RU CORPORATE ns1.steadyhoster.com ns2.steadyhoster.com Registered, Delegated Sergey A Deduhin +7 905 4754005 ****@steadyhost.ru RUCENTER-REG-RIPN 09/30/06

Paid till Source

09/30/09 TC-RIPN

Sergey A. Deduhin, the person who registered the domain name Steadyhost.ru, doesn't seem to have any more of an Internet footprint than Andrej V Uglovatyj of StopGeorgia.ru. According to contact information at SteadyHost's Web site, it has its offices in an apartment building at 88 Khoroshevskoe Shosse, Moskva (Moscow). A search on Yandex reveals another tenant at that same address – Uniastrom Bank, which is a private bank catering to individuals and small to medium-sized companies throughout the Russian Federation. Neighboring Uniastrom Bank, at 86 Khoroshevskoe Shosse, is a Ministry of Defense Research Institute called the Center for Research of Military Strength of Foreign Countries. And just down the block, at 76 Khoroshevskoe Shosse is GRU headquarters, also known as The Aquarium. Based upon the proximity of the GRU to the apartment building, it's reasonable to assume that some GRU personnel live there. It does provide convenient access on a number of levels, not the least of which is the ability to provide cover accommodations (i.e., someone to provide minimum business support activities for SteadyHost.

Figure 7.5: Google Earth view of GRU headquarters The GRU is the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces. its primary business is deploying several thousand spies in foreign countries for political and military information gathering. According to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) Web site, the GRU may be thought of as the Russian equivalent of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). It is involved in the collection of Human Intelligence (HUMINT) via foreign agents, Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) via various electronic mediums, and Image Intelligence (IMINT) via satellite imagery. In 1996, in an interview with Pravda, the leader of the GRU at that time, General

Fedor Ladygin, included technical espionage among the missions of his organization (Komsomolskaya Pravda, 05 November 1996). This includes the hacking of computer networks to gain access to sensitive data. The current leader, General Valentin Korabelnikov, added Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) to the GRU's mission according to an interview with CDI Russia Weekly on July 17, 2003.

Innovation IT Solutions Corp
Most legitimate registrars will confirm at least some of the registration information provided by a customer as part of the process of registering a domain name. Those that don't have become favorites of spammers and cyber criminals. If you look deeper at the information provided on the StopGeorgia.ru IP address, you'll see that it is part of an IP block leased to Innovation IT Solutions Corp in England by SoftLayer Technologies in Dallas. Innovation IT Solutions Corp has a Web site URL: http://init-sol.com/ but no Web site. Instead visitors see a place holder page providing basic contact information: According to WHOIS data, the Init-sol.com domain name was registered by an employee of Innovation IT Solutions Corp named Andrey Nesterenko. Mr. Nesterenko purchased the domain name through another company – Mirhosting.com. If you examine the WHOIS records below, you'll see that Mr. Nesterenko is apparently employed by both companies, and that both companies share the same business address: 95 Wilton Road, Suite 3, London. A Google search for that address brings up a variety of businesses including a porn site (Cheeky-Touch), a teen site (Teencharts.com), Goldstein Equitas Inc., and Global Securities Consulting; in other words, 95 Wilton Road, Suite 3, London, is a mail drop. Domain name Registrant INIT-SOL.COM Innovation IT Solutions Corp Andrey Nesterenko 95 Wilton Road, Suite 3 London London,SW1V 1BZ GB Tel. +44.8458692184 Fax. +44.8450205104 Creation date Expiration date Domain servers Administrative contact Status 10/10/04 10/10/09 ns5.dnska.com ns6.dnska.com Innovation IT Solutions Corp Active

Innovation IT Solutions Corp is not a registered business in the UK or anywhere else and doesn't seem to exist outside of its London mail drop address.

Mirhosting.com
MirHosting provides some substantive information on its Web site regarding its services, albeit in the Russian language. According to Dun and Bradstreet, its principal and sole stockholder, Andrey Nesterenko, is a Russian national living in the Netherlands, yet its business address is a mail drop in London; the same one used by Innovation IT Solutions Corp. Domain name Registrant MIRHOSTING.COM Innovation IT Solutions Corp Andrey Nesterenko 95 Wilton Road, Suite 3 London London,SW1V 1BZ GB Tel. +44.8458692184 Fax. +44.8450205104 Creation date Expiration date Domain servers Administrative contact Status 10/10/04 10/10/09 ns2.dnska.com ns1.dnska.com Innovation IT Solutions Corp Active

MirHosting provides some substantive information on its Web site regarding its services, albeit in the Russian language. According to Dun and Bradstreet, its principal and sole stockholder is a Russian national living in the Netherlands, yet its business address is a mail drop in London; the same one used by Innovation IT Solutions Corp.

SoftLayer Technologies
The IP address for the StopGeorgia.ru forum (75,126.142.110) can be traced backwards from SteadyHost to Innovation IT Solutions Corp to SoftLayer Technologies, a U.S. Company based in Dallas, TX with server locations in Seattle, WA and Washington D.C. Figure 7.7: WHOIS data for 75.126.142.110

SoftLayer Technologies and The Planet (also in Dallas, TX) share the unique distinction of being on StopBadware.org's Top 10 worst badware network blocks. To add some perspective to this, StopBadware.org's May 2008 report reveals China to be the world leader hosting 52% of all badware sites, while the U.S. hosts 21%. None of the other countries involved, including Russia, individually host more than 4%.

The Kremlin and the Russian Internet (RUNET)
One of the most difficult questions that the Project Grey Goose team faced in investigating the cyber war between Russian and Georgia was if there was evidence that the Russian government was involved. Our key finding in October, 2008 was: We assess with high confidence that the Russian government will likely continue its practice of distancing itself from the Russian nationalistic hacker community thus gaining deniability while passively supporting and enjoying the strategic benefits of their actions. While forum members are quite open about their targets and methods, we were unable in this round of collection/analysis to find any references to state organizations guiding or directing attacks. There are several possible explanations as to why this is the case. • • • There was no external involvement or direction from State organizations Our collection efforts were not far-reaching or deep enough to identify these connections Involvement by State organizations was done in an entirely nonattributable way

The situation has since changed. In February, 2009, the Russian media reported a story that has provided new evidence pointing to how the Russian government sponsors and pays leaders of Russian youth organizations to engage in Information Operations up to and including hacking to silence or suppress opposition groups.

The Nashi

Figure 3.9: The Nashi Logo Nashi (http://nashi.su) is short for Molodezhnoye demokraticheskoye antifashistskoye dvizhenye "Nashi" (translation, “Youth Democratic Anti-Fascist Movement "Ours!"). It was formed in 2005 to either counter the possibility of another youth revolt like the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine or to counter a growing interest in Nazism in Russia. Funding for the group purportedly comes from Russian business owners however there has been widespread speculation that it receives government funding as well. That speculation has been strengthened in recent days by the Anna Bukovskaya story related below. One of the most important supporters of Nashi is Vladislav Surkov, the First Deputy Chief of the Presidential Staff and, more importantly, a man who has the ear of Russian Prime Minister Vladmir Putin. Surkov intends to use Nashi to enforce the Kremlin's will regarding Russian Internet (RUNET) communications; i.e., “Ensure the domination of pro-Kremlin views on the Internet” (The New Times Online in Russian 16 Feb 09). That's easier said then done, particularly since that effort was tried and abandoned about 10 years ago by RUNET co-founder Anton Nosek. Surkov has a new plan which involves the enlistment of Russian youth organizations including Nashi and United Russia. He has organized a March 2009 conference with about 20 key people in the Russian blogging community as well as leaders of the aforementioned youth organizations to discuss an information strategy for the Internet: “To every strategy there should be a response, or better still, two responses simultaneously.” Anna Bukovskaya is a Nashi member and St. Petersburg activist who was paid by the Kremlin to spy on opposition political youth movements. In March, 2008, Nashi hackers were accused of orchestrating a series of Distributed Denial of Service (DdoS) attacks against the Russian newspaper Kommersant. A Nashi spokesperson denied that the group was involved. In October, 2007, another Russian youth movement known as The Eurasian Movement of the Youth (ESM) launched a DDoS Web attack against the President of Ukraine's Web site, shutting it down for three days, and both Nashi and the ESM participated in protests against the Estonian embassy in Moscow in May, 2007. Membership in Nashi has served the political aspirations of its leaders well. “Vasily Yakemenko, the group’s founder, is now the head of the government’s youth committee. Sergei Belokonev, the head of the “Nashi elections” division, accepted a post in Russia’s Parliament.” 10

Sergei Markov, Estonia, and the Nashi
10 http://www.theotherrussia.org/2008/01/30/kremlin-slims-down-nashi-youthmovement/

On March 3, 2009, Sergei Markov, a State Duma Deputy and member of the Unified Russia party, participated in a panel discussion with Russian and U.S. experts including James Lewis of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, about Information Warfare in the 21st century. During that discussion, Markov stunned everyone present by announcing that it was his assistant who started the Estonia cyber attacks in 2007. The following quote comes from Radio Free Europe which broke the story on March 6, 2009 at its Web site: “Markov, a political analyst who has long been one of Vladimir Putin’s glibbest defenders, went on to explain that this assistant happened to be in “one of the unrecognized republics” during the dispute with Estonia and had decided on his own that “something bad had to be done to these fascists.” So he went ahead and launched a cyberwar. “Turns out it was purely a reaction from civil society,” Markov reportedly said, adding ominously, “and, incidentally, such things will happen more and more.” This is most likely Konstantin Goloskov11, a Commissar in Nashi, who acknowledged his involvement and those of his associates in the Estonia Cyber attacks. Markov, a supporter of the Nashi youth movement, attended its second annual Innovation Forum on July 21, 2008; one day after the President of Georgia's web site came under a Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack and 19 days before Russia's invasion of Georgia.

Russian Military Policy for Information Warfare
In a speech before the National Forum of Information Security "InfoForum-10" in

Moscow on February 2008, Russian Deputy Chief of the General Staff Aleksandr Burutin spoke on the topic “Wars of the Future will be Information Wars”12 wherein he discussed how the rise of technological development brings with it military applications:
"The uniqueness of information weapons lies in the fact that while developing their national information infrastructure, states create a material base for using information technologies for military purposes. The higher the scientific and technical potential, the wider the set of potential targets: telecommunication and communication systems, space vehicles, automated troop and weapons control systems, financial, bank and commercial activity, power supply systems and so on." ----------"For this purpose specialized subdivisions are being created in the armed forces and special services, conceptual documents regulating questions of preparation and conducting information operations are being developed, and appropriate training is being conducted." Another piece of Russia's cyber strategy is spelled out in a multi-authored article in Moscow Military Thought13 which addresses the strategic tactic of disguising acts of information warfare as criminal activities: "In our view, isolating cyberterrorism and cybercrime from the general context of 11 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/57536d5a-0ddc-11de-8ea3-0000779fd2ac.html? nclick_check=1 12 Speech by Aleksandr Burutin, Info-Forum 10, February, 2008

13Moscow Military Thought (English), “Russian Federation Military Policy in the Area of International Information Security: Regional Aspect” 31 Mar 07

international information security is, in a sense, artificial and unsupported by any real objective necessity. This is because the effect of a "cybernetic" weapon does not depend on the motivation of a source of destructive impact, whereas it is primarily motivation that distinguishes acts of cyberterrorism, cybercrime, and military cyberattacks. The rest of their attributes may be absolutely similar. The practical part of the problem is that the target of a cyberattack, while in the process of repelling it, will not be informed about the motives guiding its source, and, accordingly, will be unable to qualify what is going on as a criminal, terrorist or military-political act. The more so that sources of cyberattacks can be easily given a legend as criminal or terrorist actions (emphasis added)."

Who Controls the Data Flow
Even with a bulletproofed network, it's important to remember that while the Kremlin provides open and global Internet access to its citizens, it also collects and controls all of the data originating within its borders. A recent interview with the Editor-in-Chief of the Russian news Web site BFM.ru, Anton Nosik, was published in the Russian online newspaper The New Times. In it, Nosik spoke of SORM-2 (System of Operation Research Measures) which copies every byte of Internet traffic coming from Russian households and businesses and sends it to the Federal Security Service (FSB) via a Redundant Array of Inexpensive Disks (RAID). Nosik also pointed out that the Kremlin either owns the pipes (Rostelekom, Transtelekom, and Elektrotelekom) or controls the licenses of every communications channel in Russia.

Credits and Acknowledgments
Project Grey Goose
Principal Investigator Jeff Carr Researchers Billy Rios, Derek Plansky, Greg Walton, Matt Devost, Ned Moran, Rebecca GivnerForbes, Shannon Silverstein Reviewers Derek Plansky, Kristan Wheaton Acknowledgments This project could not have occurred without the help of the highly talented and passionate Palantir Technologies crew and their CEO Dr. Alexander Karp. In addition, I’d like to thank the few researchers and reviewers who have opted to keep their participation confidential.

Russia ready to help with U.S.-Iran meeting at Moscow conference

18:09 | 26/ 03/ 2009



MOSCOW, March 26 (RIA Novosti) - Russia is not aware of any plans for U.S. and Iranian diplomats to meet in Moscow on the sidelines of a conference on Afghanistan on Friday, but it is ready to help arrange such a meeting, the Foreign Ministry said.

"We have no such information, but if such an intention is announced, Russia as the host country is ready to provide any assistance that may be necessary," official ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said on Thursday.

The international conference on Afghanistan is to focus on efforts to counter terrorism and drug trafficking in the war-ravaged Central Asian state.

The conference will be held under the aegis of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a security group that comprises Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.

Nesterenko said the U.S. delegation at the conference would be led by Patrick Moon, the principal deputy assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian affairs, and the Iranian delegation would be led by Deputy Foreign Minister Mehdi Akhondzadeh.

He said talks between U.S. and Iranian officials would "help ease tension around Iran as well as the situation in the region as a whole."

The U.S. Embassy in Moscow said it had no information about a possible meeting between Iranian and American diplomats in Moscow.

Russia has welcomed Washington's moves toward engagement with Tehran under President Barack Obama, including a video message of congratulations on the Iranian New Year.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said last Friday that it was "important for us that the new [U.S.] administration is making advances to Tehran."

The first direct talks between senior U.S. and Iranian officials in almost 30 years were held in Baghdad last May, when the two countries' ambassadors to Iraq held talks strictly limited to the situation in the country.

Indian Intelligence: Awaiting Still Its Tryst with Destiny

By A.K.Verma.

This paper written by former Intelligence Chief of Cabinet Secretariat is another piece that needs wider dissemination and discussion. We would welcome comments and suggestions from our readers on the issues raised.-Director

Indian Intelligence is frequently in the news, often for the wrong reasons. It is a favourite kicking target for a large number of those who compulsively articulate, like the media, political leaders, academics etc. Why should it be so when its stellar contributions to national security have quite often been praised by different Prime Ministers at different times in India’s history? A public acknowledgement of the services rendered is also indicated by the Padma awards, bestowed on Intelligence personnel from time to time.

But there is no denying that the system suffers from many fault lines, some systemic, some a legacy of the past but most due to reluctance, express or implicit at various levels in the power structure of the country, to bring about a change. It is the cumulative mindset, operating at the cutting level in the country which is mostly responsible for this dismal state of affairs. Also, the mindset does not or perhaps cannot change in a few short decades. National security has never been a hot issue with the people at large as evident from several public polls conducted in the country. Removal of the fault lines, therefore, remains a low priority. The episodic prominence the subject receives now and then has proved incapable of influencing the frozen channels in the subconscious.

For any State, Intelligence is a prime necessity, not only to know about adversaries but also about friends, so as to remain fore warned about their intentions and capabilities and to prevent surprises. It is a multidimensional complex activity but its basics remain the same, collection, analysis, counter intelligence and covert actions. A fair idea about the functioning of Indian Intelligence can be made by examining how well it is equipped for handling these four sectors.

Collection is a three pronged exercise, each arm performing a distinct role. Published information provides the bulk of intelligence, close to 80%. Well researched articles and books and field journalists not only prove invaluable source of key facts, they also provide reliable insights into any situation a country maybe interested in. Advent of computers now makes recording, indexing and retrieval of such information a lot easier but if the organization is not computer savvy, a good part of such information would fail to get stored. One suspects that such skills are still to be universally acquired and mastered in the world of Indian Intelligence. If this is correct, it bespeaks of a handicap at the starting level itself.

Technological and scientific means invariably produce intelligence of high accuracy. The gadgetry required for technical collections is very expensive and the state of art equipment is not available in the market. Investigations into Mumbai 26/11 events reveal that intercepts of Voice over Internet Protocol conversations between the terrorists in Mumbai and their handlers in Pakistan had to come from foreign agencies. States share intelligence in absolute self interest and not for considerations of ethics, morality or law. Imagine, if foreigners had not been the victims of 26/11 carnage, the requisite information in all probability have remained hidden from Indian authorities. Selective concealment is an acceptable reality of the Intelligence world. At no stage in the past India’s collaborating partners had disclosed to India anything about Pakistan’s ongoing nuclear weapon development programme and China’s stellar role in it when it was widely known that this programme directly targetted India.

The solution lies in having an in-house research and development capability with an extremely high powered technical staff, second to none, that can work on dedicated technical requirements of the Intelligence. It calls for a very high level of funding; something which is not very kindly looked upon by the fund managers of the country. The alternative is to tie up with governmental and non governmental hi-tech institutions to look for answers.

The key to the highest grade of Intelligence is held by human sources to raise whom a great deal of focussed attention, ingenuity, daredevilry and deep pockets are necessary. It is not a job of a run of the mill kind which can be performed by anyone. A successful operator, capable of recruiting high net worth human agents, has to belong to a rare breed. Identifying such potentially gifted operators and enrolling these into Intelligence then becomes a matter of incentives and competitive remunerations.

This area has been a long standing weakness of Indian Intelligence. The problem dates back to the dawn of Indian Independence when many of the legacies of the British colonial rule were uncritically accepted and passed on down the line. The British had created a steel framework to rule the country and a police system which, among other things, kept watch on nascent political trends. The steel frame attracted gifted individuals, scholars and thinkers because of the extraordinarily high compensation package. The prime tool made available to the police was repression. There was no comparable incentive for a bright Indian to join its ranks, except that of getting employed. The steel frame had lorded over British India. The legacies continued after the British left. Even today the rule exists that ensures that no member of any other service can overtake his IAS colleague of the same seniority in emoluments or rank even if he is a genius. Then why should the Indian Intelligence attract the best when it is required to exist at an inferior level? In point of fact it does not. The results that get produced, therefore, are matching the caliber that is to be found in such establishments today.

This problem can be fixed only by the political managers of the country. India now finds itself in a very complex national security environment, requiring intelligence to become the first line of defence. Men who work in it must have the capacity to develop the highest levels of professional values and solid leadership qualities.

Centuries ago a Chinese sage, Sun Tzu, admonished: “Nothing should be as favourably regarded as Intelligence; nothing should be as generously regarded as Intelligence; nothing should be as confidential as the work of Intelligence”. To produce Intelligence of this order, service in Intelligence must be made as attractive as the British had made their premier colonial service in India. Intelligence organizations of other countries run their establishments on this paradigm. They often are the best paid organizations in their own country. The CIA is reputed to attract the highest number of PhDs from the best schools into its ranks, as compared to other US organizations. The terms and conditions of service, apart from the opportunities of work, serve as a magnet to pull the talent of supreme quality among whom will be engineers, management specialists, scholars, bankers, scientists, economists, sociologists and academics. In India, unfortunately, it is only the second grade that thinks of gravitating towards Intelligence. In recent times, even this category is not offering to look at Intelligence as a career. A revolving door policy as in the US should also not be ruled out to draw in expertise and eminence.

Another negative factor is that Intelligence in India has no locus in law, especially for those who work in foreign Intelligence. India’s Intelligence agencies have not been created by Acts of the Parliament. The entire range of foreign operations is covered by just executive instructions. An instruction to operate in a foreign country ipso facto implies a requirement to break the local laws but no legal authority exists for issuing such instructions or indemnifying the would be violator under the laws of the home country. This is a very serious lacuna which does not seem to have caught the attention of anyone in authority. As the law stands today all those who issue such executive instructions and those who carry out these instructions in a foreign country to spy and steal secrets can be held accountable under the Indian laws. Foreign Intelligence is the only organization directed by the Govt. to violate the local laws of the country of operation but the Govt. does so without enjoying any legal authority to do so. This state of affairs is reflective of the apathy in which Intelligence is held in India.

Analysis comes in the picture to make a sense from collected raw intelligence in juxta position with publicly available data. It interprets the pooled information and comes up with likely scenarios of what may happen. This exercise has to be meaningful because Government’s policy decisions could be based on them. In fast moving contexts like an ongoing terrorist engagement, speed of the analysis becomes a key determinant to catch the action. However, the process as it takes place has serious flaws.

These arise from a mistaken apprehension that intelligence will seek to overtake the role of policy making or even replace it. In fact intelligence has no commanding part in the making of policy. On the other hand the policy maker has to set the agenda for intelligence to work on so that intelligence becomes custom produced. However, intelligence support to policy makers becomes more meaningful if it is allowed participation in policy debates, told about gaps in knowledge and encouraged to disclose constraints on intelligence capabilities to close these gaps, and focus its analysis on policy issues and options under scrutiny. If such opportunities are missing, intelligence works in the dark, benefiting no one.

Years ago in an article by me the role of the analyst was described in the following words: “A good intelligence analyst is an asset to the national security apparatus. In the intelligence organizations in India, analysts work for several years at the same desk and are therefore able to develop a much better insight and expertise in their fields than those serving other wings of the Government. Although not infallible, sound analysis can often point to the likely course of events. It takes into account all the information available, secret or published, mentions what remains unknown if it is relevant to the issue under study, describes the reality of the facts stated, indicating guardedly of how they were obtained, and transparently and cogently explains the logic of the conclusions and estimates it projects. The analyst’s expertise serves as the backdrop to the inferences drawn; the deeper his experience, the more value he can get out of the data assembled to make his submissions of likely scenarios of the future. When the analyst is tasked in the context of national security by the policy maker, his study is lifted out of the academic realm and becomes a basis for choosing a course of policy”.

Indian Intelligence can boast of having in its ranks many excellent analysts with deep expertise and insights but it is not certain if full use has been made of them. There is hardly any culture in the country requiring policy papers to be prepared on national security issues, with participation from intelligence, diplomats, military specialists, scientists etc., detailing likely scenarios and examining the pro and con of each. Kargil and Mumbai 26/11 demonstrated the pitfalls of absence of coordinated analysis. Where coordination is called for between the centre and the states to deal with an internal security problem in a cohesive manner, the Indian Constitution can become sometimes the stumbling block as powers stand delegated to the states some of whom may disagree with the Centre’s approach. In the face of such differences the tasks of Intelligence become even more difficult. Dealing with Naxalism is an issue which proves this assumption.

The quality of Indian Intelligence analysis has been applauded by foreign intelligence partners. Senator Claiborne Pell, former Chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is on record, stating that Indian analysis of developments in Afghanistan in the late 1980s was the only accurate indication available to the West, of what was happening there.

In the Indian system the operations officer and the analyst often double up for each other. In small outfits this may not be a serious handicap but as organizations grow larger, the two streams of intelligence should have their own dedicated cadres for best results.

Counter intelligence prime functions are identifying operations and agents of foreign intelligence organizations, and protecting the secrets of the State from penetration through use of human agents and technical means like bugs, monitoring, surveillance from space, interception of communication channels etc. Lack of national awareness generally for the needs of security makes the task of counter intelligence more difficult. Dangers arise equally from hostile and friendly agencies, driven by the operational necessity of discovering protected information.

Results from counter intelligence have been a mixed bag of successes and shame. Over the years counter intelligence has been able to unmask several of the Indian agents of all the major intelligence organization of the world. The shame lies in the fact that it could not prevent foreign penetration even into their senior ranks. Actual truth may be more hurting. There is a general belief in the country that the influence of foreign intelligence organizations has reached deep into the civil society. Suspicion was cast once even on a Prime Minister. Due to various reasons exposures of highly placed Indian moles has always proved to be a daunting task.

The field of counter intelligence has exponentially grown with the advent of international terrorism. This phenomenon poses a multidimensional threat of mass destruction through acquisition of a nuclear device, mass disruption of communication systems through cyber attacks, ideological brain washing through selective interpretations of religious doctrines, and jehadi military style attacks at random on people and key sites. Countering such terrorism has to be a composite exercise requiring participation, apart from intelligence, of other organs of the state such as armed forces, state police, crisis management groups, paramilitary directorates and science and technical communities among others. Countering ideological indoctrination in a sustained manner is perhaps yet to kick start in the country. It is not that the dangers are not realized but extraneous factors like vote bank politics relegate the issue to the lowest priority.

Since terrorist organizations which work on the cell system are extremely difficult to penetrate, good preventive intelligence may not be easily forth coming, despite the best efforts of the intelligence agencies. Because of large numbers of what can constitute a target it may not also be possible to provide effective perimeter security to every single target. If terror attacks like Mumbai 26/11 continue, sooner or later the authorities will have to decide and declare the policy steps which should compel their sponsors to weigh the costs involved. A new counter terrorism architecture in the country, aiming at better analysis, coordination and prevention, can at best remain a good defensive exercise but the need of the hour may turn out to be offensive rather than defensive tactics.

In offensive counter terrorism, the intelligence and armed forces will have distinctive and definitive roles. They may have to work together on the lines of the CIA and US military command that have been jointly handling Iraq and Afghanistan.

Nations are no longer squeamish about employment of covert techniques though specific operations may continue to be shrouded by the mystique of deniability. Nations seem willing to use any tool of statecraft to strengthen national security though the arm chair liberal or the abstract human rights activist may raise objection on grounds of ethics and morality. The Indian State in the past was not hesitant in using such instruments. This is widely known. But one cannot switch to covert actions overnight. Long preparations are necessary. If “all options” are being kept open to deal with the vicious terrorist threat from across the borders, it will be proper to give a green signal to the intelligence now to make its covert plans. Pakistan is proving to be an enduring threat. A redefinition of national interests will bring out that India needs to move out of its self created soft image and to entrust the Intelligence with a new range of responsibilities to become more secure.

Even otherwise Intelligence needs to develop new perspectives as globalization advances, defining a new permissiveness in political environment, creating opportunities for newer forms of economic penetration and triggering fast technological changes which render borders meaningless. After the demise of the Soviet Union the World has been left unipolar but the equation of balance of power remains far from settled. In Asia, the rivalry between three rising entities, China, Japan and India, each of whom will be competitively looking for new markets and new sources of resources, can become acute. The national security architecture worldwide remains shifting in a kaleidoscopic pattern, recreating all the time, newer axes of conflict and conciliation. Add to them the hunger for land and water, symbolized by refugee flows and mass migrations, and differing international concerns for climatic changes and ecology. Correct analysis and assessment of trends over a vast spectrum has become a national necessity to keep the country’s interests safe and secure. Knowledge now is the new coefficient of power and Indian Intelligence must keep step with such knowledge.

The current systems are unlikely to match the challenges that have emerged. Drastic reforms are necessary to unshackle Intelligence from its rigid bureaucratic mould and to invest it with a dynamism and innovative spirit which should be the hallmark of an unconventional organization. The very first step of reform should begin by giving Indian Intelligence the backing of legislative enactments. The laws should provide a degree of autonomy which frees intelligence from all bureaucratic restraints and controls relating to financial management, administrative functions, pay scales, recruitment, posting and promotions, hire and fire policies and enforcement of discipline. The laws should spell out the charter and authorize the Central Government to fix broad targets within the charter. This will prevent misuse of the institutions by those in authority. The laws should hold intelligence accountable to the Cabinet or its committee for security but also create a parliamentary committee for oversight. Detailed rules can be worked out to determine the parameters of oversight and areas of intelligence work over which it will be exercised, in consultation with the parliament. The laws should give the right to the Govt. to authorize any kind of covert action and keep all such activities outside the ambit of oversight. The process of oversight and accountability can be expected to keep intelligence on its toes. However, even after such reforms, errors due to human frailties and intellectual stubbornness will not all disappear but their numbers can be expected to be far less.

There is a new area of activity which Intelligence must consider if it has not already done so. Outsourcing which globalization has promoted has a good potential for intelligence work. The Japanese corporate world and intelligence have cooperated with each other over the past several years with both reaping good dividends out of such collaboration. The US is believed to have taken major steps in this direction. According to one estimate the US Intelligence community invests 70% of its budget on its joint ventures with American Industrial Complex. The Indian corporations are also traversing the multinational route. One may expect overtures to them will be rewarding to intelligence.

One last word. Is there any way that can measure the depth of devotion and commitment of Intelligence to the national cause? The following anecdote can be a revealing guide. At the height of Afghan resistance to Soviet Union in 1989, the situation in Kabul became so dangerous that the US, British and other Western countries withdrew their Ambassadors and staff from the country. Our foreign office and Ambassador wanted to follow suit, Intelligence included. Intelligence refused. While others came back to Delhi, Intelligence remained at Kabul to continue to fly the Indian flag over the Embassy in Kabul.

The Communists of India

http://cpmindia. blogspot. com/2009/ 03/communists- of-india. html


March 10th, 2009

Communism historically has a very unique twin track approach. On paper the ideals of communism are just wonderful and almost utopist in nature. When one walks through the utopian stage and dons the role of a full fledged communist the finer details emerge. The “The communist Manifesto� written by the demigod of communism Mr. Karl Marx makes quite an impact. His objectives did leave an impression on many and inspired a lot many after his time. He was a profound thinker and like most thinkers he was successful in drawing many to his thoughts. His writings appealed to the rebel in each Individual, by questioning everything. It questions civil and human rights, capitalism, and amongst others religion. It talks about class struggle. It promised a solution, an almost perfect solution that aims to rid the world of poverty, & class struggle and by bringing in an equal society. Almost like the speeches of today's politicians before elections in a democratic set up. It has an appeal that was and is hard to resist.
For a young heart, any kind of rebellion is adventurous, daring and fun because it promises action against today's evils and offers the solution that can change the world. That fatal attraction has drawn many a youth across various parts of the world to the ideology called communism. These youth fought with a song of revolution on their lips in the many of their battles against regimes across the world.
Since communist thinking was to change the existing set up, any one who prefers the continuation of the present set up is its enemy, and enemies are not ordinary enemies but enemies of the state, so they have to be eliminated. And that was done with great fervor. Consider these statistics
61 million killed in the Soviet UnionÂ
35 million killed in the People's Republic of ChinaÂ
2 million killed in North KoreaÂ
2 million killed in CambodiaÂ
1 million killed in VietnamÂ
1 million killed in the Communist states of Eastern EuropeÂ
1.7 million killed In AfricaÂ
1.5 million killed In Afghanistan
150,000 in killed Latin AmericaÂ

Indian communists have haven't been able to beat those numbers but the Nandi-gramam episode recently in West Bengal / India, demonstrated that given a chance they are capable of catching up to the numbers above and may compete quite passionately to propel themselves into the top 5. The communist chief minister of west Bengal said this statement after police firing on farmers who were protesting the take over the land, “They have been paid in their own coin�. Basically what he was saying was that we do thuggery in the form of governance. Indian Media would react in a principled way against any errors in governance but it’s natural to expect them to play safe when writing about all forms of thuggery in the form of governance.
Coming back to communism, unfortunately for Mr. Karl Marx his theory of communism though had a strong run seems to be on the ebb today, with the break of Soviet Union and a systemic break down approach by the west, both by psychological intimidation and capitalistic development platform. The other big communist country China is still going strong as a communist because it has shown remarkable pragmatism in blending communism with capitalism, in a way that doesn't upset the communist grip over the nation but at the same time moving in the direction of progress and prosperity. Cuba is set up in the communist mould because people may be tired of another revolution and more over its leaders have mastered the lust and privileges of being in power. Talking about lust, yahoo online reported that the Cuban leader Mr. Fidel Castro had had sex with a different woman each day all through his regime. Unlike Indian communists who show a tendency to stop socialism at their doorsteps, he welcomed it even to his bedroom. That was his passion for socialism.
Communism & Religion: There is famous statement in communism, "Religion is the opium of the masses�. Communism has had this fundamentally strong dislike towards religion. It appears that religion comes in the way of the communists exercising their control over the masses. They prefer to be the sole authority when it comes to having a control over the masses. That is the reason the communist rulers of the former Soviet Union banned religious practices and most of the orthodox Soviet church went underground and there were hardly any services. However with the break up of the communist regime, true feelings are coming out openly and the Russian Orthodox church is active once again, with even the supremo of Russia Mr.Putin, an ex KGB agent proclaiming his religion without fear or prejudice. Closer to home, in China the only path to God was taking a membership of the communist party of China. Indian communists however seem to quite confused. While publicly they are forced by their chosen ideology to be atheists, we all know that quite a few times their mask has come out. They participate in religious activities while their families visit religious places as any devout religious person would do. However in India communism does not seem to have a uniform policy against religion. They show surprising agility when it comes to influencing Hindu behavior and Hindu religious practices with communist ideology while simultaneously displaying an almost servile respect when it comes to minority religions in India. This seems be a primary bone of contention between communists and Hindus.
Dr Babu Suseelan writes, “For several years, Marxists in Kerala and West Bengal have been tinkering with our education, revising temple festivals, rituals, and spiritual practices. Their goal is to obliterate our culture and our customs by systematic deconstruction. Marxists have introduced Devasom Bill in Kerala for the takeover of Hindu temples including Guruvayoorappan Temple, Sabarimala Temple and various high income producing Hindu temples. Marxist government has introduced several restrictive ordinances to permanently ban traditional percussion, fireworks and timeline to permanently ban temple festivals and traditional cultural programs. For Hindus, the temple is the abode of God, the focus for all aspects in life of Hindus-religious, spiritual, cultural and social. It is a center where God can be approached and where divine knowledge can be discovered. Marxists are keen on destroying our temples founded on a platform with a devilish mixture of deception, coercion, and propaganda and government power. It represents one of the most deceptive and dangerous cultural destruction plan in India- a fact which most pseudo secularists and political leaders either do not know or choose to ignore. There is something sick in these destructive plans to loot temple wealth and permanently destroy and exterminate or vanquish our cultural values. These morally aberrant policies have the infinite capacity to inflict harm to Hindu society�.
This philosophy of communists manifests itself into a multitude of anti- Hindu activities at the street level which are being absorbed by the ever tolerant Hindu, albeit in quite disbelief. Hindu anger is building up as tiny rivulets from across the streets, towns and cities of communist ruled India. These tiny rivulets are then further attacked by a combination of anti Hindu forces. The attacks are in the form of a smear campaign. The attackers are emboldened by the passive non-confrontationis t approach lifestyle of the average Hindu. Any practicing Christian or Muslim would erupt in anger when the control of their religious places of worship is taken away by the communist or other government's, but the passivity of Hindus seems like a deep spring from which the fountain of patience, kindness, endurance and in-difference flows incessantly. This fountain can have the inherent power to work against its adherents even before the rivulet of anger takes shape into a flood of meaningful thinking.
The eruption of Christian and Muslim anger and its backlash has been demonstrated time and again in India and most Indian politicians, the communist included respect the gene of servility in them and hence stay clear. The "Anger of Indian Christian's" is backed by support of Christian western governments and "Anger of Indian Muslim's" is backed by support of Muslim countries of the Gulf. A classic example of Christian international support is the “advice� by US against the toothless anti conversion bill introduced by some states in India and the example of International Muslim support is the routine IOC resolutions against India on various matters relating to the internal affairs of India. The combination of home-grown protests and the international backing for such protests could be the reason for the absolutely zero interference by Communist governments of India in the religious affairs of Christians and Muslims. While there are a multitude of organizations and groups operating freely in India who have their "valid" reasons to molest Hinduism, for communists of India its communist ideology. This anti-religious fervor of communists seems to waft to and fro from the northern border. The recent attempt to take over the Hindu temple of Nepal by the new born communists of Nepal, is a page from the leaf of what China has been doing to religious Tibet for the past 50 + years. The levels of in-sensivity to the aspirations, sentiment and self-dignity of the common man by communist governments, may make Mr Karl Marx re-think his thoughts on communism.

Primary Objective of Communism in India: Indian Prime Minister Mr.Man Mohan Singh has said that Marxist violence in parts of the country is the biggest threat sweeping the nation. An entire patch from central India to southern India is under the grip of Marxist violent movements known in India as naxalism. There is no government administration in such areas as no government official dares to go there. This is a complex issue where the mis governance of successive governments has given place to deep resentment against the government. This resentment has been hijacked by the communist movement under the guise of socialism. They wage war against the government with real arms and ammunition.Its interesting to note that there is little or no naxalism in states which are governed by Communist parties like West Bengal or Kerala, because the goal has been achieved, that is to gain power. It’s equally interesting that they use their mantra of revolution only in states they are not in power. They indulge in Marxist propaganda with positive sounding slogans such as "inclusion", "human rights", "feminist empowerment", "classless society", "women's rights", “ equality�, “ fight against oppression� to mobilize the poor people. For the poor and oppressed this seems like the divine opening they have been praying all their lives and are moulded into believing that take cudgels against the government of India on behalf of the communist parties will bring in a solution to their problems. They have invited the security forces of India to their door step thus pushing them into being enemies of the democratic state.The poor who have endured the worst of corruption in governance are now forced to bear the baton and bullet of the security forces. There is an extension of their inherited suffering. All this in the name of socialism.

While on one had the communists enjoy power both at states and in the centre by some clever political maneuvering, they at the same time engineer unrest in states they don't rule with the sole aim of coming to power. So is communist ideology in India just a rue to come to power. This unfortunately seems to be the reality as is with any other political party of India. If we assume that what we are writing cannot be true, then quality of life and governance in communist ruled states of India must be on par with developed countries.. right? To challenge us please take a walk through the communist ruled states of India and advice us that we are wrong. We will concede if proven wrong. Rich and powerful Marxist leaders live in luxury houses, drive deluxe limousines, send their children at expensive boarding schools and lead an elite life. The Marxist political leaders are at a huge, incalculable distance from the average citizen deeply ensconced in the twin towers of power and communist ideology.Â

It is said that winning elections is done in true communist traditions. Elections are under the tight grip of the communist party member’s right down to the street level. People are gently advised to vote for the communist party and offered "pleasant" experiences if they do not. Every movement of the ordinary people is tracked to make sure that votes are cast only for the communist party. Its authoritarian rule under the mask of democracy. That may explain the reason why the communist parties have managed to remain in power for as long as memory can know in West Bengal. The communist parties of India are on the same platform as other political parties of India. They indulge in corruption, work towards gaining personal wealth, demonstrate bad governance, display lack of vision on issues of welfare, infrastructure development and prosperity. They also give selective holidays to their communist ideology and engage in multiple forms of political alignments in order to capture / retain political power.
Nationalism vs. Ideology: Two things come to mind, The Nuclear deal with USA episode and the silent support of Indian communists to China on the 1962 war and subsequent non resolved border dispute between India and china. The vehement opposition of the Indian communist parties to the nuclear deal was based on the cold war ideology of the communist movement to oppose any dealings with the progressive west. So when they opposed it, the primary objective was its adherence to its ideology over what can be a perceived benefit to the Nation. It’s said at least on paper that the nuclear deal with US would open the door to overcome the power shortage that India is currently facing and also address the future power needs of the power hungry India. We don't know if that objective would really be achieved or if that stated objective is the real objective. But the communists of India opposed it. They had a chance to poke a thumb at the west, their eternal enemy. It did not matter to them that opposition would mean depriving the nation of that extra wattage of power. That adherence to ideology even it means working against national interest is a shocking reality that seems to have got immersed unquestioned and un challenged into the torrid waters of great churning lake called “the Kurushetra of modern Indian politics�. The communists of India seem to have given ideology a preference over common sense thinking of neighboring china. If china were to follow the same communist ideology of opposing any dealing with the west, would it have registered a trade surplus? Consider this report from the China daily,According to China customs statistics, China's exports to the United States were US$52.1 billion in 2000 and reached US$162.9 billion in 2005, an increase of 212 per cent. According to US customs statistics, the US exports to China were US$16.2 billion in 2000 and reached US$41.8 billion in 2005, an increase of 157 per cent. Had Indian communists raised issues like nuclear safety, it would amount to showing interest in the safety and welfare of Indians, but they did not do that. This approach of not blending national priorities as part of their Ideology can be a hindering factor in the development of India. Wish the commonsense nationalistic approach of communist china rubs onto to Indian communists.
As for the support of Indian communists to China, It was reported that during the Liberation War of Bangladesh in 1971, China more or less asked the Indian naxalites to support the side of Pakistan. An interesting paper by Mr.D.S.Rajan (He was earlier Director, Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India, and New Delhi ) in the online portal http://www.saag. org/common/ uploaded_ files/paper1565. html presents the collusion between communists of India and China. That makes quite an insightful reading. As a starter it would be nice if at least on public platforms Indian communists blend nationalism with communist ideologies. They should step out of their cocoon of ambiguity and come out strongly in support of India on the border dispute with China.


The passive and non-mainstream communists of India scattered across the nation in various "avatars" are effectively complementing the "work" of main stream communists by an gusto that combines ignorance and misinterpreted affinity to ideology. This includes the "The Hindu" God "Shri Ram" who resides on the Mount road of Chennai, south India. Surprisingly there also seems to be a preference for " communist anonymity" and also a tendency to present a "secular" face to the public.Â


Indian communists haven't been air-dropped onto India.Its the blood of India that runs in them.They are Indians at heart, body and soul..Look at this picture of Ms. Brinda Karat, one of the leaders of one of the communist parties in India.
In spite of being both an atheist and an communist this picture of the Indian communist leader identifies itself with Hindu culture, much to the dismay of the pink chaddi spirit of modern India. The question is why don't Indian communists come out in open and acknowledge their Hinduistic true form which is their inherent foundation. If all or some choose to come out in the open and acknowledge both, their communist avatar and the inherent Hindutvam then we would extend a warm welcome with open hands to The communists of India!.
References:Â
http://www.unitedhu manrights. org/Genocide/ pol_pot.htm
http://en.wikipedia .org/wiki/ Gulag
The Communist Chinese Ant Hill Suzanne Labin, Edward Fitzgerald
http://www.hawaii. edu/powerkills/ NOTE1.HTM
http://sneakpeaks. blogspot. com/2008/ 03/worlds- most-beautiful- politicians. html
The Marxist invasion of India : Dr Babu Suseelan
http://theundercurr ent.ca/ind_ pol_10.htm? id=8522

Building Brand Congress with taxpayers' money

Source: The Pioneer , Delhi
A Surya Prakash | New Delhi (Pioneer, Wednesday, March 25, 2009)

In a planned and systematic effort to gain unfair advantage over other political parties, the Congress party has named all major Government programmes, projects and institutions in the country after three members of the Nehru-Gandhi family — Rajiv Gandhi, Indira Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru — who are its icons, and disturbed the level playing field in the electoral arena.

Over the last 18 years, on a rough estimate, about 450 Central and State Government programmes, projects and national and State-level institutions involving public expenditure of hundreds of thousands of crores of rupees have been named after these three individuals. While it is the prerogative of a Government to name an institution after a person whom it considers to be a national or State leader, Government programmes which have been initiated to ameliorate the lives of millions of citizens (like drinking water, housing and employment guarantee schemes and old age pensions) fall into an entirely different category. If the nomenclature of these programmes is not politically neutral, the sanctity of the democratic system would be in jeopardy.

Among the big ticket programmes that have been cleverly named after members of this family by the Union Government to extract unjust electoral mileage is the Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana (rural electrification programme), which involves an outgo of Rs 28,000 crore during the Eleventh Plan period (Rs 5,500 crore in fiscal 2008-09). The drinking water mission, with an allocation of Rs 21,000 crore over three years (Rs 7,300 crore in 2008-09 and Rs 7,400 cr in 2009-10) is also named after him and is called the Rajiv Gandhi Drinking Water Mission. Other schemes, touching millions of people, which bear his name are the Rajiv Gandhi National Creche Scheme for Children of Working Mothers; the Rajiv Gandhi Udyami Mitra Yojana (to promote small enterprises) ; the Rajiv Gandhi Shramik Kalyan Yojana and the Rajiv Gandhi Shilpi Swasthya Bima Yojana (both insurance schemes).

Likewise, there are many mega-programmes named after Indira Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru by the Centre. For example, there is Indira Awas Yojana. The budgetary allocation for this programme to house the poor is Rs 7,919 cr in 2008-09 and Rs 7914.70 cr in 2009-10. Also named after her is the Indira Gandhi National Old Age Pension Scheme (Rs 3,443 cr in 2008-09). Programmes named after Jawaharlal Nehru over the last two decades are the Jahawarlal Nehru Rojgar Yojana and the Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewal Mission. The Rojgar Yojana, which later metamorphosed into Jawaharlal Gram Samruddi Yojana was meant to provide employment to millions of unemployed citizens. The Union Government proposes to spend Rs 50,000 cr over seven years on the Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewal Mission (allocation of Rs 10,447.98 cr in 2008-09 and Rs 10,713.84 cr in 2009-10).

Building Brand Congress with taxpayers’ money
This trend is even more apparent in States which have vied with each other to name programmes and schemes after these three members of the Nehru-Gandhi family whenever the Congress Party was in power. Here is a sample: Rajiv Gandhi Breakfast Scheme, Pondicherry; Rajiv Ratna Awas Yojana, Delhi; Rajiv Arogyasri Health Insurance Scheme, Andhra Pradesh; Rajiv Gandhi Computer Literacy Mission, Assam; Rajiv Gandhi Bridges and Roads Infrastructure Development Programme, Haryana; Rajiv Gandhi Vidyarthi Suraksha Yojana, Maharashtra; Rajiv Gandhi Tourism Development Mission, Rajasthan; Indira Kranthi Patham Scheme and Indira Jeevitha Bima Pathakam, Andhra Pradesh; Indira Gandhi Niradhar Yojana and Indira Gandhi Landless Agriculture Labour Scheme, Maharashtra; Indira Gandhi Priyadarshini Vivah Shagun Yojana, Haryana; Indira Gandhi Calf-Rearing Scheme, Andhra Pradesh.

A perusal of these programmes and schemes shows a systematic attempt by the Congress Party to name every Government programme concerning every citizen - man, woman, child; every possible circumstance in the life of every citizen - child bearing, child rearing, education of children, food, education of youth, employment, marriage, unemployment, destitution, handicap; and every possible challenge flowing out of lack of infrastructure - drinking water, electricity and housing after just three members of this political family who are icons of the Congress Party.

Obviously, the plan is to ensure maximum recall of Brand Congress among voters at every stage in life. Therefore, nothing is left out. The crèche for children of the working poor is named after Rajiv Gandhi. So is a breakfast scheme for poor children. The parents need to remember him for a host of other reasons - rural drinking water, rural electrification or scholarships. Indira Gandhi comes in when the poor want a house subsidised by the Government and you think of Nehru when urban renewal programmes come into play. The Congress Party has taken its obsession with this family to such an extent that even calf-rearing schemes are named after them. Shockingly, even Brand IIM had been tinkered with. While all institutes of management started by the Centre go under the IIM brand, the Congress Party has mischievously named the IIM in Shillong as the Rajiv Gandhi Indian Institute of Management.

The list of 450 Government programmes, schemes, institutions etc named after these three members of the Nehru-Gandhi family broadly fall into the following categories: Central Government programmes and projects (12), State Government programmes (52), Universities and educational institutions (98), Ports and airports (6), Awards, Scholarships and Fellowships (66), Sports tournaments, trophies and stadia ( 47), National parks and Sanctuaries (15), Hospitals and medical institutions (39), National scientific and research institutions, chairs and festivals (37), Roads, buildings and places (74).

Apart from violation of basic democratic norms and electoral laws, the naming spree has crossed all limits of decency. Every major sports tournament has been named after the Nehru-Gandhis, as if nobody else matters, not even the greats in Indian sports. Among tournaments named after Rajiv Gandhi are national and international tournaments in football, basketball, judo, roller skating, beachball, kabaddi, rural cricket, gymnastics, boxing, the Delhi Marathon and the Kerala Boat Race. If anything is left out, it has been named after Indira Gandhi and Nehru. The same pattern is repeated in major national parks, universities, fellowships and scholarships. Such is the obsession of Congress Governments with this family that they name India's biggest open university after Indira Gandhi and name fellowships granted there after Rajiv Gandhi. Similarly, the centre for advanced scientific research in Bangalore is named after Nehru and the science talent fellowships awarded there are named after Rajiv Gandhi. For long years, we are all familiar with the Fullbright Scholarships. The Manmohan Singh Government has ensured that this is now known as the Fullbright-Jawaharl al Nehru Scholarship! We are unlikely to see anything so gross even in dictatorships like in North Korea.

This blatant attempt to package and market Government programmes run on public money as munificent offerings from a single family to the people has made a mockery of the Model Code of Conduct drawn up by the Election Commission for observance by all political parties.

I have, therefore, petitioned the Chief Election Commissioner and requested him to immediately issue directions to the Union Government and to all the Governments in the States to remove the names of individuals, who are seen by the people as icons of specific political parties, from all Government programmes and schemes funded by the exchequer and to immediately give these programmes politically neutral names. Such a direction from the Election Commission will ensure enforcement of the Model Code of Conduct in letter and spirit and will also be in consonance with the various directions and instructions issued by the Commission from time to time

Building Brand Congress with taxpayers’ money (Part-2)

This trend is even more apparent in States which have vied with each other to name programmes and schemes after these three members of the Nehru-Gandhi family whenever the Congress Party was in power. Here is a sample: Rajiv Gandhi Breakfast Scheme, Pondicherry; Rajiv Ratna Awas Yojana, Delhi; Rajiv Arogyasri Health Insurance Scheme, Andhra Pradesh; Rajiv Gandhi Computer Literacy Mission, Assam; Rajiv Gandhi Bridges and Roads Infrastructure Development Programme, Haryana; Rajiv Gandhi Vidyarthi Suraksha Yojana, Maharashtra; Rajiv Gandhi Tourism Development Mission, Rajasthan; Indira Kranthi Patham Scheme and Indira Jeevitha Bima Pathakam, Andhra Pradesh; Indira Gandhi Niradhar Yojana and Indira Gandhi Landless Agriculture Labour Scheme, Maharashtra; Indira Gandhi Priyadarshini Vivah Shagun Yojana, Haryana; Indira Gandhi Calf-Rearing Scheme, Andhra Pradesh.

A perusal of these programmes and schemes shows a systematic attempt by the Congress Party to name every Government programme concerning every citizen - man, woman, child; every possible circumstance in the life of every citizen - child bearing, child rearing, education of children, food, education of youth, employment, marriage, unemployment, destitution, handicap; and every possible challenge flowing out of lack of infrastructure - drinking water, electricity and housing after just three members of this political family who are icons of the Congress Party.

Obviously, the plan is to ensure maximum recall of Brand Congress among voters at every stage in life. Therefore, nothing is left out. The crèche for children of the working poor is named after Rajiv Gandhi. So is a breakfast scheme for poor children. The parents need to remember him for a host of other reasons - rural drinking water, rural electrification or scholarships. Indira Gandhi comes in when the poor want a house subsidised by the Government and you think of Nehru when urban renewal programmes come into play. The Congress Party has taken its obsession with this family to such an extent that even calf-rearing schemes are named after them. Shockingly, even Brand IIM had been tinkered with. While all institutes of management started by the Centre go under the IIM brand, the Congress Party has mischievously named the IIM in Shillong as the Rajiv Gandhi Indian Institute of Management.

The list of 450 Government programmes, schemes, institutions etc named after these three members of the Nehru-Gandhi family broadly fall into the following categories: Central Government programmes and projects (12), State Government programmes (52), Universities and educational institutions (98), Ports and airports (6), Awards, Scholarships and Fellowships (66), Sports tournaments, trophies and stadia ( 47), National parks and Sanctuaries (15), Hospitals and medical institutions (39), National scientific and research institutions, chairs and festivals (37), Roads, buildings and places (74).

Apart from violation of basic democratic norms and electoral laws, the naming spree has crossed all limits of decency. Every major sports tournament has been named after the Nehru-Gandhis, as if nobody else matters, not even the greats in Indian sports. Among tournaments named after Rajiv Gandhi are national and international tournaments in football, basketball, judo, roller skating, beachball, kabaddi, rural cricket, gymnastics, boxing, the Delhi Marathon and the Kerala Boat Race. If anything is left out, it has been named after Indira Gandhi and Nehru. The same pattern is repeated in major national parks, universities, fellowships and scholarships. Such is the obsession of Congress Governments with this family that they name India's biggest open university after Indira Gandhi and name fellowships granted there after Rajiv Gandhi. Similarly, the centre for advanced scientific research in Bangalore is named after Nehru and the science talent fellowships awarded there are named after Rajiv Gandhi. For long years, we are all familiar with the Fullbright Scholarships. The Manmohan Singh Government has ensured that this is now known as the Fullbright-Jawaharlal Nehru Scholarship! We are unlikely to see anything so gross even in dictatorships like in North Korea.

This blatant attempt to package and market Government programmes run on public money as munificent offerings from a single family to the people has made a mockery of the Model Code of Conduct drawn up by the Election Commission for observance by all political parties.

I have, therefore, petitioned the Chief Election Commissioner and requested him to immediately issue directions to the Union Government and to all the Governments in the States to remove the names of individuals, who are seen by the people as icons of specific political parties, from all Government programmes and schemes funded by the exchequer and to immediately give these programmes politically neutral names. Such a direction from the Election Commission will ensure enforcement of the Model Code of Conduct in letter and spirit and will also be in consonance with the various directions and instructions issued by the Commission from time to time.

-- To be concluded

Nationalise the Rs. 250 lakh crore public loot in tax havens

http://sites. google.com/ site/hindunew/ public-loot

The Swiss Bank Accounts as tax havens is only a tip of the iceberg. There are 71 other tax havens where the public loot has been parked. The total estimate of such a loot is $11 trillion of which India alone accounts for over $5 trillion (Rs. 250 lakh crores using an exchange rate of Rs. 50 to a dollar). The job is not over until the fat lady sings.

I hope JD(S) and BJP make this a serious election issue and follow-through in nationalizing these benami transactions. Let the owners prove that the holdings are legal and pay up the back-taxes and face criminal proceedings. No mercies should be shown to the crooks who have looted from the poor people of Hindusthan.

kalyanaraman

IRS Cuts Penalties to Lure Tax Evaders
By EVAN PEREZ and TOM HERMAN

Come in from the cold (Wall Street Journal, March 27, 2009)
The IRS is trying to encourage people with undeclared offshore bank accounts to pay what they owe. General details of the offer:
· Pay all taxes owed, plus interest, dating back six years
· Pay a penalty of 20% of the value of the accounts for the year in which those accounts had their highest value
· Avoid criminal prosecution
· Milder penalties; previously, someone could wind up owing more in taxes, interest and penalties than the value of the foreign account

Source: Internal Revenue Service

WASHINGTON -- The Internal Revenue Service is offering leniency to many wealthy Americans who volunteer to pay taxes owed on assets stashed in offshore accounts, in exchange for information on the bankers who helped them hide the money.Taxpayers who take part in a new program being offered over the next six months will face lower penalties than would otherwise be due, and will likely avoid criminal prosecution, the agency said.

A key part of the program, IRS officials said, is "developing intelligence" on bankers, lawyers, accountants and others who help the rich hide assets from tax authorities. This raises the likelihood that the IRS and the Justice Department could take aim at major financial firms, as they have against UBS AG, the Swiss bank that admitted in a settlement last month that some of its bankers had helped U.S. clients evade taxes.

Lawyers representing clients who are trying to make amends with the IRS said their clients are being prodded to name those who helped them set up offshore accounts, or risk losing the leniency they would receive by coming forward.

"The IRS is clearly interested in information about bankers, financial advisers, lawyers and intermediaries," said Scott D. Michel, a lawyer at Caplin & Drysdale who helps clients navigate the IRS's voluntary process to pay back taxes. "Lawyers who go in for voluntary disclosures are being asked to identify any such people with whom their clients interacted."

As the federal government struggles with rising deficits and public anger over financial bailouts, the White House and Congress have begun to focus on reducing tax evasion as a way to ease the financial strain. Recently, under pressure from the U.S. and other countries, Switzerland and several other countries seen as offshore tax havens have promised to increase information sharing with the IRS and other tax authorities to combat tax fraud.

For those holding accounts hidden from the IRS, "this is a chance to come clean on their own," IRS Commissioner Doug Shulman said in a conference call with reporters on Thursday. "For taxpayers who continue to hide their heads in the sand, the situation will only become more dire." The IRS has warned that it will crack down hard on evaders who don't come forward voluntarily.

Under the new program, account holders must voluntarily disclose unreported offshore income and pay any back taxes, interest and penalties. That typically includes paying all back taxes and interest going back a maximum of six years, filing or amending returns, and paying a penalty equivalent to 20% of the value of an account during the tax year in which the account had its highest value.
More

Previously, IRS penalties could be so severe that a taxpayer might wind up paying more in back taxes, interest and penalties than the value of the foreign account.
In addition, if taxpayers come forward voluntarily before the IRS has launched an audit, they likely would escape criminal proceedings.
The IRS devised the program as the federal government neared a victory in its battle with UBS over its role in encouraging tax evasion by U.S. account holders. UBS admitted to abetting tax evasion as part of a deal with the Justice Department that allowed it to avoid criminal prosecution. The bank also paid $780 million in fines and turned over information on more than 250 accounts. UBS continues to fight an IRS subpoena seeking information on 52,000 other accounts, arguing that disclosing the information would violate Swiss bank-secrecy laws.
As a result of the UBS case and other ongoing efforts, the IRS said, the number of people who have come forward to declare offshore accounts has more than doubled this year over the same period in 2008.
Jack Blum, a Washington tax attorney and expert on offshore tax jurisdictions, said the new IRS program seems aimed at helping tax authorities in new cases against banks in the same business for which UBS got in trouble.
It is unclear exactly how many Americans are hiding taxable income in secret bank accounts abroad, or how much in taxes they are evading.
A report issued by the U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations last July said the U.S. each year "loses an estimated $100 billion in tax revenues due to offshore tax abuses." The report estimated that offshore tax havens hold trillions of dollars in assets belonging to citizens of other countries, including the U.S.
Write to Evan Perez at evan.perez@wsj. com and Tom Herman at tom.herman@wsj. com
http://tinyurl. com/debzmx
US offers tax deal for holders of offshore accounts
6 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AFP) — US tax authorities are offering a deal including reduced civil penalties and a guarantee against criminal prosecution to holders of offshore bank accounts who agree to pay back taxes.
A directive from the Internal Revenue Service, a copy of which was obtained Friday by AFP, states that tax collectors will agree to forego criminal penalties and potentially higher fines for account holders who step forward within the next six months.
The memo from deputy IRS enforcement chief Linda Stiff said the leniency would apply to persons who are not already under investigation and agree to pay back taxes over the past six years and a 20 percent civil penalty.
The directive also allows for an even smaller penalty of five percent for people who own the accounts but did not open or deposit money in them.
Tax specialists say the deal could avert tougher penalties of up to 50 percent and criminal charges that could lead to prison terms.
"Although there are accuracy and potential delinquency penalties, the significantly lower penalties on informational returns should be an incentive for many individuals who are considering a voluntary disclosure," said Jim Mastracchio, a Washington lawyer with the firm Caplin & Drysdale.
Mastracchio said the directive provides guidance to tax inspectors and formalizes a policy that may or may not be used for people who volunteer information on offshore accounts.
The action comes as Swiss banking giant UBS Wednesday faces pressure to name about 50,000 Americans holding secret bank accounts in Switzerland.
US senators have accused bankers at crisis-wracked UBS of helping wealthy Americans to flout US tax law through a variety of underhand methods down to encrypted laptops and lies to US customs officers.
Mastracchio said the incentives could bring account holders in to cooperate with US authorities, possibly providing information for a probe into UBS bankers.
http://tinyurl. com/cktvzx

JD-U goes after Indian holders of Swiss accounts

New Delhi (IANS): The Janata Dal-United (JD-U) Friday joined the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) in demanding that the government should ask the Swiss authorities to divulge the names of Indians who have stashed away ill-gotten money in secret bank accounts there.

JD-U president Sharad Yadav told reporters here: "India tops the list of countries whose citizens have deposited monies in Swiss banks and we must ask the government there to reveal the names."

CPI(M) leader Prakash Karat made the demand last week during the release of his party manifesto.
Without disclosing his source, Mr. Yadav said Swiss banks had "$1,456 billion belonging to Indians, followed by $470 billion belonging to Russians, $390 billion of Britons, $100 billion of Ukraine, and $96 billion of China." About his source, he said: "The source is reliable. This information is also available on the internet."
Mr. Yadav, also convenor of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance, said: "We demand that India should do everything possible to get the money back."
"It is unfortunate that our government has not asked the Swiss authorities to reveal the names, while the US has already done so. This inaction raises suspicion that the government is not interested in getting the money back," he said.
Mr. Yadav said with this money the country could increase its foreign exchange reserves "as well as eliminate poverty from the country and repay all debts".
http://www.hinduonn et.com/holnus/000200903271 941.htm
‘JD(U) wants $1456 bn from Swiss bank back’
New Delhi, Mar 27: Expressing shock over the reports of 1456 billion dollors of Indian money allegedly deposited in Swiss Bank, JD(U) chief Sharad Yadav on Friday demanded a thorough probe into it and steps to bring back the money.

"Government should not only ask the Swiss Bank to reveal the details of the accounts of Indians but should also do all the needful to bring back the money and prosecute those Indians, who have their accounts in the Swiss Bank," party chief Sharad Yadav told a press conference here.

He said if the NDA comes to power it will accord top priority to exposing such people. Yadav also called upon all political parties of the country to make their stand public on this issue.

"We are not only raising the issue. We will also include it in our election manifesto and try to make it the central issue in the election if the government does not act swiftly," Yadav said.

"It is a naked picture of corruption in the last sixty years of our independence. The money of the farmers and for the country's development was looted in which corporates and bureaucrats and above all politicians are involved," he alleged.

"According to the revelation, India with 1456 billion dollor deposit tops the list of countries whose money lie in the bank. But it is unfortunate that while all other countries of the world have responded to the disclosures, Government of India is yet to respond," he added.

Bureau Report
http://www.zeenews. com/nation/2009-03-27/518560ne ws.html

CPI-M is a threat to democracy & India: Book

http://cpmindia. blogspot. com/2009/ 03/cpi-m- is-threat- to-democracy- india-book. html


Usha Manohar in Kochi | PTI | March 27, 2009 | 12:31 IST

As the Lok Sabha poll campaign gathers steam in the Left-ruled Kerala, a top Church official has described the CPI-M as a 'threat' to democracy and warned that India will suffer the same fate as China under Mao Zedong.

'The Marxist party will use all kinds of tactics to strengthen itself in places where it is in power. That they will do throughout India once they get to power at the Centre, will be no different from Mao or Stalin,' says Cardinal Mar Varkey Vithayathil in his book Straight From Heart.

The influential Cardinal, known for his critical views even on the church establishment, says, 'The Marxist fundamentalism is a greater threat than the religious fundamentalism of the BJP. The Navy, the Army and the Air Force will come under their complete control. We can reasonably expect that what happened in China under Mao will happen in India under their rule.'

'Where is the logic of democracy if they are convinced atheists? But if they are atheists against their conscience and belief, then they are not true to themselves. Convinced atheists cannot be democratic. Democracy is based on respect for the individual and on the rule 'of the people, by the people, for the people,' Vithayathil, also the Major Archbishop of the Syro-Malabar Church, says.
The first Communist government of Kerala, Vithayathil says, was dismissed because they took recourse to some Marxist techniques like rule by party cadre when they came to power.

'But even now, it is the party that rules in Kerala and not the government,' the Cardinal says.
Vithayathil, who is also the president of Catholic Bishops Conference of India, says he disagrees with Marxism, mainly on the issue of 'atheism' and their 'use of violence'.

'From my Catholic faith, I sometimes see Marxism as a chastisement allowed by God on the Church for not living what it preaches,' he says in the book.
Catholic Church has often come in conflict with CPI-M-led LDF government on different issues, including proposals of the state Law Reforms Panel on topics like legalisation of mercy killing, small family norm and formation of a body to manage church properties.

Praising the Congress and its allies, the book says, they have 'more respect' for an individual and his fundamental rights.

Putting his views on BJP, the Cardinal in the book says, 'The commendable thing about the party is that they want to preserve the good aspects of Indian culture like modesty of women and promoting certain moral values, for which they would opt for stricter media censorship. For them religion is very important and they support democracy and human rights.

'Besides protecting ancient culture and heritage of India, like Vedas, Upanishads and the great philosophical teachings to the six systems of Indian philosophy, BJP respects, preserves and promotes knowledge of Sanskrit and Ayurveda.'

The party is a 'great defender of our many achievements of the past', the book says.
However the saffron party, Vithayathil says, 'has forgotten that Catholics of the country also regard Indian culture, philosophy, literature and science as their heritage. The Catholic Church will certainly protect them just as it has responsibly protected and preserved Greek and Roman cultures.'

http://www.rediff. com///election/ 2009/mar/ 27loksabhapoll- cpm-a-threat- to-democracy. htm

Russia to deploy special Arctic force by 2020 - Security Council

Russia

16:36 | 27/ 03/ 2009



MOSCOW, March 27 (RIA Novosti) - Russia will create by 2020 a group of forces to protect its political and economic interests in the Arctic, but does not plan to militarize the region, a spokesman for the Russian Security Council said on Friday.

He said the council had recently posted on its website a document, "The fundamentals of Russian state policy in the Arctic up to 2020 and beyond," which outlines the country's strategy in the region, including the deployment of military, border and coastal guard units "to guarantee Russia's military security in diverse military and political circumstances."

"However, it does not mean that we are planning to militarize the Arctic. We are focusing on the creation of an effective system of coastal security, the development of arctic border infrastructure, and the presence of military units of an adequate strength," the official said.

According to some sources, the Arctic Group of Forces will be part of the Russian Federal Security Service, whose former chief and current secretary of the Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, is a strong proponent of an "aggressive" state policy in the Arctic.

Another goal of the new strategy is to "optimize the system of the comprehensive monitoring of the situation in the Arctic," including border control at checkpoints in Russia's arctic regions, coastal waters and airspace, the spokesman said.

The strategy envisions increased cooperation with neighboring countries in the fight against terrorism, drug-trafficking, illegal immigration and environmental protection.

The document also prioritizes the delineation of the Arctic shelf "with respect to Russia's national interests."

High Arctic territories, seen as key to huge untapped natural resources, have increasingly been at the center of mounting disputes between the United States, Russia, Canada, Norway, and Denmark in recent years as rising temperatures lead to a reduction in sea ice.

President Dmitry Medvedev said in September at a Russian Security Council session that the extent of the Russian continental shelf in the Arctic should be defined as soon as possible.

Medvedev also said the Arctic shelf is a guarantee of Russia's energy security and that the Arctic should become the resource base for Russia this century, adding that "about 20% of Russia's GDP and 22% of Russian exports are produced" in the area.

Russia has undertaken two Arctic expeditions - to the Mendeleyev underwater chain in 2005 and to the Lomonosov ridge in the summer of 2007 - to support its territorial claims in the region. Moscow pledged to submit documentary evidence to the UN on the external boundaries of Russia's territorial shelf by 2010.

A Russian proposal on creating security structures in the Arctic region will be discussed at a ministerial meeting of the Arctic Council in April.

The Arctic Council was established in 1996 to protect the unique nature of the Arctic region. The intergovernmental forum comprises Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Canada, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States.

When America fell to pieces the shouting was outrageous

Doctor of political sciences, professor of the Diplomatic Academy Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Russia. Prof. PANARIN is the author of nine books, «Infowar and power”, “Infowar and world”, “Infowar and election”, and others, and of many political essays published in various journals.

Prof. PANARIN often take part in different political discussions on the Russian TV on the main problems of Russian policy, development of relationships between USA and Russia and many others.His main interests are history, philosophy, psychology, computer science, communication, election technology, conceptual problems of globalization, the theory and practice of infowar.

---

Professor Igor Panarin: When America fell to pieces the shouting was outrageous
e-mail story to a friendprint version26 November, 2008, 16:49

As early as autumn 2009 the economic crisis may lead to a civil war in the USA and then to its division into parts. Igor Panarin, doctor of political science, dean of the foreign affairs department at the Diplomacy Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, presented this forecast ten years ago. At that time his forecasts seemed unrealistic, but now many of them are coming true.


We present a new version of the event’s development through the eyes of the scientist, even though it may seem disputable and even scandalous.

In his interview with Izvestia, professor Panarin shares his opinion on the following issues: why the United States decided on monetary reform; who Obama is working for; and why it is better for Russia to be friends with China.

Question: Mr. Panarin, where did this idea of the breakup of the US come from back in 1998, when this country was prospering and when it was an unconditional world leader?

Answer: In September 1998 an international conference called the Informational War was held in Austria. I presented my analytical research there. 150 out of 400 participants were from the USA. There was outrageous shouting in the audience when I was talking about the division of America in my presentation. However my reasons were well-grounded. Back then it was obvious that finance and economy would be the main destructive power for the USA. The dollar was not secured by anything. The external debt of the country was growing like an avalanche in spite of the fact that it was non-existent at the beginning of the 1980s. In 1998, when I was making my forecast, it had reached 2 trillion dollars. Today it’s more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid which is bound to collapse.

Q: Will the entire American economy collapse?
A: It is collapsing now. Three out of the five largest and oldest banks on Wall Street ceased to exist because of the financial crisis; and the other two are on the verge of surviving. Their losses are the largest in history. Now we are talking about replacing the regulation system in the world: America will no longer be the world regulator.

Q: Which country will replace it?

A: Two countries are making a claim for this role: China with its large reserves, and Russia as a country which could play the role of a regulator on the Eurasian territory. A rather remarkable event took place at the G20 summit which has just taken place in Washington. Participants put forward the new architectonics of the international affairs where a key role would belong to the International Monetary Fund. But the International Monetary Fund needs funds. Thus the participants addressed China and Japan with a request to provide money. The gold reserves of China come to more than 2 trillion dollars. It is the largest creditor to the USA. Now it will definitely affect the policy of the fund. By the way, it is not accidental that Mr. Hu Jintao met two leaders at the summit: the Russian President and the leader of the UK. There are plans to hold the spring G20 meeting in England. And the meeting with Russia as a country which is putting forward the basic principles of reconstructing the world financial system also clearly fits the vision of the Chinese reformation process.

“Skeleton which keeps the USA together is fragile”

Q: We are clear about the world leaders. But let’s go back to the USA. What makes you believe in the possible division of the country?

A: There are a number of reasons. First, the financial problems of the USA will increase. Millions of citizens have already lost their savings. Prices and unemployment keep growing. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse which means that entire towns will end up unemployed. The governors are now harshly demanding money from the federal center. Complaints are growing. They’ve been restrained so far by the presidential election and by hope that Obama could perform a miracle. However, by spring it will become clear that a miracle will not happen.

The second factor is the vulnerability of the political mechanism in the USA. There is no uniform legislation on the territory of the country. There aren’t even general uniform traffic rules. The skeleton which keeps the USA together is fragile. Even the armed forces in Iraq are represented by the non-citizens of the United States to a large extent. They fight for the promise of American citizenship. Thus the army, as a melting pot has stopped fulfilling a consolidating function for the American state. And finally, the split of the elite has made itself especially clear under the conditions of the crisis.

“Hundred dollar notes may get frozen”

Q: How will the country be divided? Mexico is obviously in the south. What else?

A: There are six parts altogether. The first one is the Pacific Ocean coast of the USA. I can give you an example: 53% of San Francisco’s population is Chinese. The Governor of Washington state was an ethnic Chinese; its capital, Seattle, is called the gate of the Chinese emigration to the USA. It is obvious that the Pacific Ocean coast has been gradually influenced by China. The second part in the south is definitely the Mexicans. In some areas, Spanish has become the official language already. Then comes Texas which has been openly fighting for independence. The Atlantic coast has a totally different ethnos and mentality. It could be split into two parts as well. And we are left with two central depressive areas. May I remind you that five central states where the Indians live had announced their independence. It was perceived as a joke or a kind of a political show. But the fact remains the same. Canada is making a strong influence in the North. By the way, Russia may require returning Alaska, as it had been rented out…

Q: What will happen to the dollar then?
A: In 2006 a secret agreement was made between Canada, Mexico and the USA on preparing to implement the Amero as a new currency unit. This may mean replacement of the dollar. At the same time 100-dollar notes which have flooded the world may just get “frozen”. An excuse may be used, for example, that terrorists have made false notes which need to be checked.

“Confrontation between the clans has become open”

Q: Could you tell us about the division of the elite. Are these the democrats and the republicans?

A: No, that is not right. There are two groups in the US authorities. The first one may be called the globalists, or the Trotskyites. Leon Trotsky had already formulated their idea in the past: it’s not Russia that we need, but a world revolution. Soviet Russia was viewed by them as a base for control over the world. The second group is the statists which want prosperity for their country. Representatives of these two clans are present in both Democratic and Republican Parties. Take voting for the anti-crisis plan of Paulson, which was suggested by the Republican administration, for example. It was voted down in the Congress by the Republicans first of all.

Q: Who is in charge of the clans?

A: The key persons of the globalists are Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Vice President Dick Cheney. The key persons of the statists are Robert Gates, Defense Secretary; Michael Hayden, CIA Director; and Admiral Mike McConnell, director of national intelligence. Globalists are mainly the financial elite, and statists are the armed forces, special services and military and industrial complex. Recently the confrontation between these two clans has become open. In December last year the statists presented a report which completely denied the existence of the nuclear program in Iran. It directly contradicted conclusions made by Condoleezza Rice and Dick Cheney. The second important event took place at the hearings of the US Congress concerning the 5-day war in the Caucasus. The globalists represented by Condoleezza Rice insisted that Russia had started the war and that it would be punished for it. Georgia was the project of Condoleezza. And representatives of the intelligence community presented a diametrically opposite statement: that Georgia had started the war. We see an open confrontation between very outstanding political figures.

Q: And who’s Obama’s company?

A: The statists with Gates in charge were the key players who had enabled Obama to win. They are demanding that he change the general line in return. In this light, a very interesting factor is that Gates the Republican is viewed as the most important candidate as to whether he remains the US Defense Secretary or becomes the Secretary of State. This is the influence of the statists on the President. By the way, the first session which Obama held was with the American intelligence community.

“We have to cut the ropes tying us to Titanic.”

Q: What does the victory of the statists mean for Russia?
A: It’s a rather good chance for us, as they acted on our side in the conflict in the Caucasus. According to President Medvedev’s visit to the USA we see that he was not subject to any obstruction in relation to the events in the Caucasus. The atmosphere in Washington was rather calm and friendly.

Q: What should Russia do in order to avoid shocks in relation to a possible economic collapse of the United States?

A: It should develop the rouble as the regional currency. It should form an efficient petroleum exchange which would sell oil for roubles. Several days ago an agreement was signed between Russia and Belarus on transferring payments for oil and gas to roubles. This is the beginning of establishing the ruble as the regional currency as well. We’ve been receiving our currency from Kazakhstan and Belarus for electricity already. Now our task is to try to make as many rouble contracts as possible for the year 2009 before the end of this year. In this case Russia will be able to escape the growing global crisis. We have to cut the ropes tying us to the financial “Titanic” which, in my opinion, will drown in the nearest future.

Courtesy of Izvestia daily.
Translated by RT.

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Gerald Celente is Founder/Director of The Trends Research Institute.
http://www.trendsresearch.com/

The Trends Research Institute publishes The Trends Journal.

Gerald Celente: The Greatest Depression in History

Gerald Celente: The Greatest Depression in History
Uploaded by gringoike

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Gerald Celente: $2000 Gold and the Break up of the US

Gerald Celente: $2000 Gold and the Break up of the US
Uploaded by gringoike

Western military forces turning inward in anticipation of domestic unrest

Old-Thinker News March 10, 2009
By Daniel Taylor
As the growing world-wide economic crisis deepens, military forces from Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom are preparing to meet angry citizens on the street. The economic crisis - and the public outrage it is causing - is at the forefront of intelligence agencies and military forces in the western world.
Prominent trends forecaster Gerald Celente has been sounding the alarm for years, warning that riots and tax revolts are coming to America. The Pentagon, U. K. Ministry of Defense, and Canadian military apparently agree. In November of 2008 the United States Army War College released the report Known Unknowns: Unconventional "Strategic Shocks" in Defense Strategy Development. The report identifies economic collapse as a reason for the defense establishment to conduct domestic operations. The report states,
"Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security. Deliberate employment of weapons of mass destruction or other catastrophic capabilities, unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency..."
The CIA and MI5 are both watching the economic situation for signs of unrest and political instability. As the Washington Post reports, the CIA has added an economic situation report to its threat assessment for the White House. A further sign that the United States government is anticipating widespread unrest comes with the domestic stationing of the 1st Brigade Combat Team of the 3rd Infantry Division. The Army Times reports,
"They may be called upon to help with civil unrest and crowd control or to deal with potentially horrific scenarios such as massive poisoning and chaos in response to a chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or high-yield explosive, or CBRNE, attack."
Canadian military forces have been given a nearly identical domestic mission in a synchronized move with the United States. Canada's National Post reports that,
"The Canadian military has embarked on a wide-ranging plan to turn its reserve soldiers into focused units trained and equipped to respond to a nightmarish array of domestic threats, including terrorist "dirty bomb" attacks, biological agent containment, Arctic catastrophes and natural disasters."
David Bercuson, director of the Centre for Military and Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary admits that contingencies exist that "...envisioned scenarios that might require a form of constabulary or policing function for reserves in civilian containment and security."
Overseas, the United Kingdom's MI5 is also anticipating widespread unrest in response to economic downturn. The Daily Express reports that the U.K. Army is "on standby" in the event of unrest during a "summer of discontent."
The United Kingdom's own Ministry of Defense foresaw middle class revolution two years ago in the 2007 The DCDC Global Strategic Trends report. "The middle classes could become a revolutionary class...," the report states. "The growing gap between themselves and a small number of highly visible super-rich individuals might fuel disillusion with meritocracy, while the growing urban under-classes are likely to pose an increasing threat to social order and stability, as the burden of acquired debt and the failure of pension provision begins to bite."
Ominously, legislation was recently introduced to Congress that would authorize “national emergency centers” on military installations that will provide “temporary housing, medical, and humanitarian assistance to individuals and families dislocated due to an emergency or major disaster." The National Emergency Centers Act can be read here.
As new taxes - like paying by mileage and carbon taxes meant to send "price signals" to consumers - are imposed and more money is demanded from debt laden citizens to save failing banks there is little doubt that resistance will grow. Just how far the bankers can go remains to be seen, but the military is ready when we've had enough.

Global Economic Crisis and India's Geopolitical Concerns

Editorial : ORGANISER, India
By R Balashankar

Most western analysts have painted India both as a challenge and an opportunity to the US. The world is not really eager to see India emerge a great power. Perhaps that is the reason for the Chinese arming and the US aiding Pakistan, a natural rival of India. The foreign hand in the growing social and religious tensions within the country is not a chimera. The petro-dollar and evangelical funding have for long disturbed peace in the country. Foreign money and mercenaries have kept Kashmir a pestering sore. Is the world afraid of or conspiring against India? India is a large and continental size country with advantages that no other country can claim. A latent great power.
__________________________

The world order seems distinctly moving towards multi-polarity. This possibility was discounted for long. It was granted that the centre of gravity was shifting from where it traditionally was for the last 500 years—from Europe to Asia—but it was predicted, encouraged by the success of globalisation, that the world will remain uni-polar at least for another three decades, with the US remaining the sun around which like satellites all other countries will revolve. It is interesting that the evolution of this new universe of multiple poles began from the US which so far used every power at its command— economic, military and technological — to keep the world uni-polar.

The dramatic onslaught of deepening global economic crisis shattered the implicit faith in globalisation which the US and its allies promoted as a tool of diplomatic hegemony. Now the wave of protectionism, the anti-thesis of globalisation, has become a core philosophy with the West. The US is leading the charge. According to the Newsweek (March 11, 2009), as one of the most dramatic effects of global recession US which was the main destination of international migration to pursue a dream of better living has ceased to be so; rather the trend is even starting to reverse itself. Reports talk of at least six million job losses in that country in the last four months.

How does India cope with the new situation? Has our geopolitical vulnerabilities increased in the last five years? Without undermining our economic growth and prosperity can we make a departure from past follies? Wise men of diplomacy say that maximization of power and plenty in a globalised world is impossible. These experts say that to maintain high rate of economic growth we have to sacrifice our strategic importance. That is, under US hegemony, or call it globalisation, the foreign policy is subservient to market economy—there is no sovereign strategic dimension. Countries can have no legitimate interests of their own. The only interest for a country to serve is US interest and all other interests are subject to the big power dictate. And this is not the way India wants to see itself as a great country. The UPA’s failure on the diplomatic front is so monumental that India, which considers itself a world power, is today not even recognised a regional power. Surrounded by hostile neighbours, ever-threatening influx of subversive illegal migration from all the four sides, India is increasingly becoming exposed to internal sabotage and external aggression. China has no qualms about weaponising and nuclearising Pakistan. The US is arming and funding Pakistan like an infatuated lover. The terror workshop of Pakistan has brought Taliban so close to the national capital that it will take only a few hours drive for them to reach India. The borders are porous, the nation is being deliberately weakened. We do not even have a full-time Foreign Minister for the last three months.

The Indo-US Nuclear Deal which its supporters claimed would change the entire paradigm of Indian Foreign Policy got stuck in the economic meltdown. It resulted in India’s traditional allies getting suspicious and nervous in dealing with India but not helping it make new friends. The initiative also did not ensure the country a share in the prosperity booty of the developed world.

These are the issues our experts are discussing in this special Varsh Pratipada volume. It is often said that the 21st century is India’s century. There is no dearth of literature in the wake of globalisation, mostly authored by western scholars, enthusiastically supportive of the new architecture of world economic order and their Indian chums predicting India’s emergence as a major economic power by the end of the first half of this century. Emergent India as a world economic power but a poor second-rate strategic partner of the west. Indians will get part of the leftover jobs of the west, great Indian idols will be those whom the Americans will certify as great managers of BPOs, imported US manual labour and second-rate software whiz kids. And Indians will speak, dress, live and perish like Americans. Indian languages, culture and lifestyle—even art and literature will be preserved in digitized form funded lavishly by Western NGOs. It is all very encouraging. There are millions of educated English-speaking disciples to the incredible unfolding drama. Because where else do you get the kind of money? The magic of derivative manipulation? There was no other preferred destination for Indian graduates for study and Wall Street jobs. Celebrated Indian educational institutions were like higher secondary schools for Western universities which thrived on Indian students. Diplomats have not been able to solve the problem where countries in their efforts to protect security ended up undermining economic growth or in their effort to protect prosperity ended up increasing geopolitical vulnerabilities.

Experts say that in the current international system, to borrow a definition from Ashley J. Tellis, all bilateral relations between the great powers are going to be “in a state of continuous, reflective and omni-directional re-equilibration”. Without attempting to make any self-fulfilling prophecies, this debate is being taken up at a time when the country is preparing to elect its next government. The Indo-US treaty has unfortunately created a clientelism mindset in the Indian establishment, as The Indian Express (March 18, 2009) editorially commented. It said that the Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon during his recent visit to the US justified not taking up the issue of denying Indians HI-B visa on the plea that it was a “sovereign function” of the US.

The problem here is that after the mega bailout to stimulate its economy, the US does not want its own money leaking to other economies. So the government is enforcing “Buy American” clauses and restrictions on job outsourcing on companies availing the bailout benefits. Simultaneously, as the daily pointed out, the US administration cleared a $2 billion sale of maritime jets to the Indian Navy—something that was needed to keep the troubled airplane giant Boeing’s books looking good. Boeing, General Electric, McDonnell Douglas and General Dynamics will soon need to renew Indian contracts. Indian government has levers to apply on all these deals. But it will need political will. And India has to apply them because globalisation is not a one-way street.

The essence of uni-polar diplomacy is increased economic interdependence. Economics became the tool for both co-operation and conflict management. Global tensions were brushed under the carpet in the façade of “engaging” for mutual economic prosperity. So the developed world coined a new mantra that the way to deal with rising powers is either to democratise them or increase economic inter- dependence. This strategy however did not work in Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan or even when Russia attacked Georgia.

Still, globalisation is a strategy of containing emerging powers. The US has been efficiently practicing it with China, India, Russia and other G-20 countries. The core of this strategy is to make the economic interaction so deep that it increases the cost of conflict to a point where war becomes impractical. The idea, they will explain, is not to push some country down, but to engage it. India as a new friend of the US, under George W Bush was bent on reaching out. Thus managing potential rivalry is an integral part of US diplomacy.

Compare this with the manner in which Dr Manmohan Singh managed India’s foreign policy. India is practically friendless in the region. Even the gruesome

26/11 Mumbai terror attack which shocked the entire world could not be turned into a diplomatic offensive against Pakistan. A weak, waffling, rogue state like Pakistan has more friends in the region than India. So much so that visiting foreign dignitaries have the audacity to warn India that terrorism will not end as long as Kashmir is not settled. “Out of the box” dialogue, the UPA started with the hostile neighbour, in the early days of its tenure, has now turned out supine diplomacy and a huge joke.

In international politics, relations between states will always remain competitive. It is the agility and vision of the national leadership that make enduring and fruitful relationship.

The G-20 economic summit in London on April 2 is also billed as the new US President’s first diplomatic offensive outside his country to regain the lost international space for his country. His priority is to win the confidence of the Islamic world. How will it affect India?

As Kautilya states in the Arthshastra, all states respond to international competition through a combination of internal balancing, increasing their own resources from within and external balancing, i.e. creating alliances to deal with the emerging threat. From essentially self-sufficient economic pattern of the pre-globalisation era the world had progressed to a stage of absolute inter-dependence. This analysts called the third wave of globalisation. Here, purely competitive strategies gave way to subtle arm-twisting. All this dramatically changed on September 25, 2008, when the US faced the bust of its celebrated investment institutions. With economy, diplomacy too took a crash. Many assumptions have changed about the US continuing as the dominant power in the international system.

True. Dollar still continues as the most important global reserve currency. The world continues to see the US—despite the loudly spelled Chinese doubts on US debts—as a desirable destination to park its resources. US sustained its dominant position by its disproportionate access to the resources of others. Its ability to sustain labour force growth was another advantage which it has started losing if the latest reports are to be believed. The US could sustain its growth through immigration of high value labour and excessive input capital from abroad. The situation is changing. The other big advantage it boasted of was its highly effective national innovation system, a consequence of its market economy. Observers of US economy point out one of the reasons for the decline of the economy was that after internet, the US did not make any big innovation. Touted as very effective, highly flexible, the venture capital system, another instrument of its glory, has failed. The US confidence has shaken, along with it faith in the infallibility of globalisation is also shaken. This is a new challenge facing Indian foreign policy. Possibly the repeal of ban on Stem Cell Research would propel another wave of innovation and growth. It has very large investment and service potential. US military capabilities are still unmatched. The gap in the technical sophistication between the US and Europe is actually widening in terms of conventional precision strike capabilities and the ability to deploy. The US, according to AshleyTellis (India in Asian geopolitics), maintains these capabilities through a defence budget that is larger than the defence budgets of at least the next 15 countries in the international system put together and yet those defence burdens are only about three per cent of US GNP. (Rising India: Friends and Foes)

Most western analysts have painted India both as a challenge and an opportunity to the US. The world is not really eager to see India emerge a great power. Perhaps that is the reason for the Chinese arming and the US aiding Pakistan, a natural rival of India. The foreign hand in the growing social and religious tensions within the country is not a chimera. The petro-dollar and evangelical funding have for long disturbed peace in the country. Foreign money and mercenaries have kept Kashmir a pestering sore. Is the world afraid of or conspiring against India? India is a large and continental size country with advantages that no other country can claim. A latent great power. It is steadily developing technical and social organisational capacities. China like Japan is excessively dependent on international market both for resources and revenue generation. The world recession will hit it harder and longer. This is likely to limit its ability to play the big challenger. Its self-created contradictions of market economy and command polity, according to many analysts, can stymie its high growth in the long term. This is where India stands out. We are only short of a visionary political class.

Baloch leader demands the end of the Pakistani and Iranian occupation of Balochistan

Wahid Baloch






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(GENEVA, Switzerland) - March 12, 2009 - Dr. Wahid Baloch, President of the Baloch Society of North America, has demanded the United Nations to help end the Pakistani and Iranian occupation of Balochistan.

Baloch spent a week in Geneva and during his trip he attended several UN HRC 10th session meetings and met with Baloch, Sindhi and Kashmiri leaders and activists including Senator Sana Baloch, Munawar Leghari, Mumtaz Kashmiri and Abdul Hamid Khan of Balwaristan Front. He said his meetings focused on the current situation of Balochistan and other related issues.

At the UN meetings, Baloch said that Balochistan is a land occupied by Pakistan and Iran against the wishes of its 16 million citizens. He asked the UN to help end the Pakistani and Iranian illegal occupation of Balochistan and exploitation of Baloch resources by Pakistani and Iranian terrorist armies. He also brought to the attention of the participants the deteriorating situation in Balochistan.

Baloch also told the UN that the Balochs was not behind the kidnapping of UNHCR official John Solecki.

"This is against the Baloch traditions to harm a guest and I assure you all that Baloch is not behind this kidnapping,” Dr. Baloch said,". “The newly-created group, BLUF, is an ISI affiliate, created by ISI to mislead the world community. There should be no doubt that the Pakistani ISI is behind the kidnapping of John Solecki and if anything happened to him Pakistan should be held responsible. The United Nations is not our enemy and the Baloch are not fighting the UN.”

Baloch went on to condemn the kidnapping of John Solecki by ISI and its agents and ask the kidnappers for his immediate release without any delay.

“Pakistan’s ISI and its agents are behind the kidnapping of John Solecki to label Balochs as 'terrorists' and to turn the UN against the Baloch people in a time when Baloch Royal leader His Highness Khan of Kalat Suleman Daud Khan's is approaching the International Court of Justice at Hague to challenge the Pakistani Illegal occupation of Balochistan”, Baloch said.

“The Baloch people are not terrorists or separatists, as Pakistani and Iranian media projects them to be. They are secular freedom fighters, fighting for the freedom that has been taken away from them for the last several decades by Iran and Pakistan”, he told the UN.

Baloch asked the UN to intervene and Put pressure on Pakistan to stop the military operation and genocide in Balochistan.

Oligarchs Bite the Dust

March 11, 2009

By Sergei Balashov
Russia Profile


The Oligarch’s Financial Problems May Be Less Serious than They Appear

While some form of state support for floundering businesses is still technically possible, the government has recently made it clear that it would not go far in helping the super rich. Handing out loans to help refinance debts has been part of the state’s anti-crisis agenda, but the government now says that it does not intend to throw a lifeline to the oligarchs at the expense of further depleting the national foreign currency reserves.

Last year, Vnesheconombank received about $50 billion from the state to help Russian businesses refinance foreign debts. The largest recipients included Oleg Deripaska’s RusAl, which received a $4.5 billion loan, and Mikhail Fridman’s Alfa Group, which got $2 billion that it used to pay off a debt to Deutsche Bank. But in a recent interview to the Wall Street Journal, Arkady Dvorkovich, the president’s economic advisor, said that last year’s bailouts were “individual cases,” and that this policy would be discontinued.

It is now clear that the relief last year’s bailout provided was temporary, and the Russian corporate sector now finds itself with more enormous debts on its hands. The Vedomosti newspaper estimated Alisher Usmanov’s debt at some $3.5 billion, on top of Metalloinvest’s $4.8 billion debt. Roman Abramovich’s Evraz, whose value diminished from $46 billion to just $2 billion last year, owes about $10 billion both to domestic and foreign banks. Deripaska’s Rusal turned out to be the leading debtor, owing more than $14 billion, roughly half of it to foreign lenders. Thus, the Russian corporate sector will soon be required to pay off over $115 billion in debts.

It now appears as though the oligarchs have been left to their own devices to handle this situation. “There has been enough state support for the corporate sector. It is also fairly obvious that in a situation where the crisis is expected to last for a long time, the availability of financial resources, including currency, will become an issue,” said the Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Yaroslav Lisovolik.

Some companies, including RusAl, are still looking for a deferral on the payoff date, but whether they will succeed is questionable. “The current situation is that basically nobody has the money. The only sensible strategy is to get the debt payoff dates postponed, but this doesn’t depend on the companies as much as on their creditors, as they have their own debts to pay,” said Dmitry Parfenov, an analyst at the Prospect investment company.

According to a report in the New York Times, the oligarchs might now be so desperate to get out of the hole they dug themselves into that they are looking to return their assets to the state. The newspaper reported that Russia’s top businessmen met President Dmitry Medvedev in January to offer to merge their assets, including some of Russia’s largest mines and factories, into a single state-controlled conglomerate, in return for the Kremlin’s aid in refinancing their debts to Western banks.

If the debts are not paid on time, some of the assets that have been pledged as collaterals could be turned over to foreign owners. Such a development would most certainly be frowned upon by the Kremlin, which has worked hard to get back the strategic assets controlled by private owners who are either foreign or perceived as unreliable. And yet capitalizing on the vulnerability of the Russian private sector and nationalizing strategic industries such as mining, oil and gas, and metallurgy, is not yet seen as an option. “The authorities don’t have any plans to take tings away from people and nationalize them…but it doesn’t mean that the state won’t wind up owning some assets that were held as collateral,” Dvorkovich told the Wall Street Journal. It appears that the need to do this is not yet that strong. The message sent by the state should rather be interpreted as an unwillingness to get oligarchs hooked up with state funds.

In fact, Russia’s large corporations have been able to get a hold of loans, even attracting money from abroad. The debts of oil and gas companies aren’t that difficult to handle. LUKoil was able to acquire of a €1 billion loan from Gazprombank, to cover a portion of its $10.6 billion debt. Mechel also received $1 billion from Gazprombank, while TMK got $1.1 billion, all on rather favorable terms. For companies like TNK-BP, which, according to Gazeta.ru, owes just $2.1 billion, debt isn’t much of an issue at all.

Rosneft has been among Russia’s leading borrowers, winding up with over $20 billion in debt, but Russia’s largest oil and gas corporation recently secured a $15 billion loan from China. Pipeline operator Transneft also received $10 billion from the Chinese. “The bigger companies can still attract funding. I think there is enough for the corporate sector to hang on for this year. In some cases, the government could chime in and hold shares as collaterals, expanding their stakes in private companies, but these assets would later be privatized again. [Nationalization] is not the strategic direction Russia is following right now,” said Lisovolik.

The Federal Service for the Financial Market is currently working on legislation that would allow paying off debts with share emissions, a practice that is currently banned. This could take the burden off some of the debtors. Even though the legislation is seen as one favorable to the oligarchs, it could end up being more helpful to small businesses that aren’t likely to get any support at all. “This new legislation would favor small businesses, but those left off the state’s list of key and strategic sectors are going to have to restructure their debts without any state support,” said Lisovolik.

Ukraine: a Trustworthy Ally?

March 25, 2009

Comment by Dmitry Babich
Russia Profile

Despite a Negative Track Record, the EU Appears Willing to Believe Whatever the Ukrainian Officials Say

The negative reaction from Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to the recently signed deal between the EU and the Ukraine on the modernization of the latter’s natural gas pipeline system was perceived as a sign of success in Kiev and in several other East European capitals. Newspapers in Poland and Ukraine wrote about the “Russian hysteria,” as if sidelining Russia in the energy dialogue between the East and the West could somehow serve their interests.

Meanwhile, this “hysteria” is understandable in the light of the EU’s willingness to carry additional financial burdens in a bid to achieve dubious political aims. These aims appear to include almost unconditional support for the divided and unreliable Ukrainian political elite. “Ukraine should really set out to discredit the North Stream and the South Stream. Spending just several dozen million dollars, we shall save billions,” the former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymir Ogryzko said at a meeting of the National Security Council several weeks ago, while he was still the head of Ukraine’s diplomacy. Ogryzko was voted out of office by the Ukrainian parliament two weeks ago.

“Whether the Eurocrats wanted this or not, the gas conference in Brussels and the declaration signed after it create huge difficulties for the realization of Vladimir Putin’s two most ambitious projects – building two pipelines bypassing Ukraine,” Ukraine’s most popular online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda said. “Moscow’s nervous reaction to the declaration of intentions signed in Brussels means that the Ukrainian action hit the spot.”

It is clear that the declaration signed in Belgium will be presented by Ukraine’s unpopular President Viktor Yushchenko as his own achievement. Without ceding the ownership of the formally state-owned pipeline, built back in the Soviet times, Ukraine gets a loan of $2.5 billion under very favorable LIBOR terms from the largest European banks – the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the World Bank (WB). In return, the Ukrainian government took upon itself seven obligations, which are part of the text of the declaration. They include finding an independent operator of the “modernized” pipeline system, creating a transparent, market-oriented mechanism of determining the tariffs, and giving third parties access to underground gas storages.

EU officials seem to have forgotten that just two weeks ago Ukraine’s President Viktor Yushchenko and his Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko had an ugly row while deciding whose allies should control Gazprom’s gas in the underground storages of Ukraine. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) with its masked commandos was used as a tool for snatching control over these assets from Tymoshenko’s supporters in the state-owned company Naftogaz. In retaliation, Tymoshenko accused Yushchenko of abusing his powers and countered by a similarly organized police raid. To expect from these two people that access to these same underground storages will be given to some “third parties” appears somewhat idealistic. But the EU officials are obviously prepared to believe Ukraine’s embattled leadership

US SPIES-IN-THE SKY OVER FATA

B.RAMAN

There have been two more missile strikes from Predator (unmanned) aircraft on suspected terrorists in the South and North Waziristan areas of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan. With these, there have been seven Predator strikes carried out by the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in the tribal belt of Pakistan since President Barack Obama assumed office on January 20,2009.

2. The first of these strikes carried out on March 25,2009, targeted two vehicles--- a pick-up and a car--- which were moving on a kacha road (non-metalled country road) near the Makeen area of South Waziristan. Seven terrorists, believed to be Uzbecks and Arabs, were reportedly killed. While there is no doubt about their links with Al Qaeda, they seem to be low-level operatives of the organisation.

3.The second of these strikes targeted the house of a tribal leader by name Malik Gulab Khan in an area called Essokhel, 30 Kms from the town of Mir Ali in North Waziristan, on March 26,2009, killing fours persons. All of them are believed to be Pakistani supporters of the Taliban. There have been no local protest demonstrations against the two strikes indicating a lack of local anger over the deaths of these persons. This would indicate that the locals do not believe that those killed were innocent civilians.

4. The first strike on two moving vehicles was more significant than the second strike on a building. Shortly after the vehicles carrying the terrorists started moving on the road, a Predator aircraft appeared over them and fired two missiles hitting both vehicles. This precise information about the movement of the vehicles, which led to the instantaneous Predator strike, could not have come from human intelligence. A possibility is that the inmates of the vehicle were speaking over phone and their conversation was intercepted by the US technical intelligence units operating on the Afghan side. Or a greater possibility is that the US has one or more spy-in-the-sky satellites over the FATA, which are keeping a continuous watch over all vehicular movements in the area. The vehicles targeted had probably come to the notice of the CIA earlier as being used by the terrorists and the moment their movement on the road was detected by a satellite, the Predators, which were already over the area, went into action. The local villagers have been quoted by some sections of the Pakistani media as saying that Predators had been flying over the area for some hours prior to the attack. They did not blindly target any vehicle. They precisely targeted the two vehicles by which the seven terrorists were travelling. It is not clear whether the Americans knew beforehand that these persons were Uzbecks and Arabs or came to know of it only after they had hit the vehicles and killed them. (26-3-09)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

Afghan intel chief: Pakistan spies support Taliban

By SEBASTIAN ABBOT and CHRIS BRUMMITT, Associated Press Writers Sebastian Abbot And Chris Brummitt, Associated Press Writers 59 mins ago

KABUL – Afghanistan's intelligence chief accused Pakistan's spy agency of helping Taliban militants carry out attacks in his country, highlighting one of the biggest challenges facing the Obama administration as it prepared Thursday to launch a new strategy for the Afghan conflict.


The body of a suspected Taliban militant lies lifeless on the back of a police vehicle with his heavy machine gun after he was killed in a battle with the Afghan forces on the outskirts of Ghazni province west of Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, March 26, 2009. Taliban militants attacked a police convoy in central Ghazni province Thursday, wounding six policemen, said regional police spokesman Iqbal Gul Sapan. Four militants were also killed in the clash in Nani village near the provincial capital, he said.
(AP Photo/Rahmat Naikzad)

Many Taliban militants fled to Pakistan's border area from Afghanistan following the 2001 U.S.-led invasion, finding a sanctuary that allowed them to mount cross-border attacks that have destabilized Afghanistan and jeopardized international efforts to rebuild the country.

President Barack Obama plans to dispatch 4,000 more U.S. troops along with hundreds of civilian advisers and will recommend increasing aid to Pakistan so long as leaders there confront militancy, people familiar with the forthcoming plan said Thursday. The latest additions, to be announced Friday, would follow Obama's decision to add 17,000 troops to the flagging war this year.

Obama called the leaders of both Afghanistan and Pakistan on Thursday to brief them on the plan, their offices said. Many believe that even with a stepped-up U.S. effort, chances for success are slim unless Pakistan effectively cracks down on Taliban and al-Qaida militants operating from its territory.

The U.S. and Afghanistan have repeatedly called on Pakistan to sever all links with the Taliban, which came to power in Afghanistan in the 1990s with significant support from Pakistan's military intelligence agency — known as the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI. Pakistan's government insists it no longer supports the militant group, but the country's civilian leaders have limited control over the agency.

Afghanistan's intelligence chief, Amrullah Saleh, told parliament Wednesday that the spy agency provides support to the Taliban leadership council in the Pakistani city of Quetta headed by the group's supreme leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar. He said the council sends militants into Afghanistan to attack Afghan and international forces.

The New York Times reported that Pakistani spy operatives provide money, military supplies and strategic planning guidance to Taliban commanders, with evidence of the ties coming from electronic surveillance and trusted informants. The report cited American, Pakistani and other security officials who spoke anonymously because they were discussing confidential intelligence information.

Talat Masood, a retired general and security analyst, told AP Television that he believes the ISI may have links in Afghanistan. But he said that does not necessarily mean it is supporting the Taliban or is giving them material assistance.

He said the ISI maintains contacts with militants in order to monitor their activities, "because it is itself being hit by the Taliban."

A senior Western diplomat in Islamabad said Pakistani assistance to the Taliban has declined since 2001 but that links persist. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not allowed to talk to the media.

Saleh, the Afghan spy chief, criticized Pakistani officials for denying that Taliban leaders are based in the country. He said the Pakistanis view militants on their border as "a kind of weapon" that can be used in both Afghanistan and India.

"The Pakistani government is making excuses by saying these areas are out of their control," said Saleh.

Afghanistan has accused Pakistan's spy service or militants based in Pakistan's lawless tribal areas of being behind several major attacks in Kabul, including the bombing of the Indian Embassy last July, an assassination attempt against President Hamid Karzai in April and an assault on the luxury Serena Hotel in January 2008.

By focusing the blame on militants in Pakistan, Saleh reinforced recent remarks by Obama, who has warned that militants using Pakistani territory to launch attacks should not be allowed free reign.

Many of the additional troops that Obama has pledged to send to Afghanistan will be deployed in the south near the border with Pakistan — the heartland of the Taliban insurgency, where militants attacked a police checkpoint Thursday, killing nine policemen, the Interior Ministry said.

Another officer was killed and two were wounded in a search operation the police launched after the attack, said the deputy provincial police chief Kamal Uddin.

Corruption also has been a significant issue at the highest levels of government, with reports that Karzai's relatives have profited from their family connections — charges they denied.

Karzai said Thursday that the accusations were false and politically motivated. He outlined his own savings and assets to head off any corruption allegations that might be leveled against him in the run-up to presidential elections this year.

Karzai said he has about $10,000 in a bank in Frankfurt, Germany, and that his wife has jewelry worth about the same amount. He said his salary is only about $500 per month. "I have no private car, no land, no garden, no house," Karzai told a news conference.
___
Abbot reported from Kabul and Brummitt from Islamabad. Associated Press writers Rahim Faiez and Amir Shah in Kabul, Stephen Graham in Islamabad and Anne Gearan and Pamela Hess in Washington contributed to this report.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090326/ap_on_re_as/as_afghanistan

---

BBC

Lyse Doucet talks to Afghanistan's intelligence chief Amrullah Saleh on The Interview

Afghanistan's intelligence chief Amrullah Saleh talks to Lyse Doucet on The Interview.

In a rare interview Amrullah Saleh describes how he wants Afghans to be scared of his agency's powers.

He explains why he thinks the West might be underestimating the terror threat Afghanistan and the world faces.

And he proposes that the war on terror should be extended into Pakistan.

LISTEN

Hell is 'others'. But what 'others'?

http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/imported/hell-is-others-but-what-others-/64328.aspx

By Mirek Topolánek
19.03.2009 / 00:00 CET

Most of the divisions allegedly evident in this economic crisis are false. But the crisis is nonetheless a true test of the entire EU project.

Whenever a difficulty arises, it is natural to look for its causes in order to find a solution. Unfortunately, it is also only too natural for us not to start looking for the causes in ourselves, but rather to find fault with others. Today, the EU is not only tackling the effects of the financial crisis but is also trying to throw light on the origins of the crisis to prevent a repeat. It is evident that the first symptoms did not come from the EU27, but it is equally evident that the EU's member states were unable to protect themselves and to stop the domino effect of the crisis. And we are reluctant to admit that we were caught off-guard.

The EU is faced with an economic crisis: demand and revenues are down, production is being cut, unemployment is growing and, consequently, public debt is rising. The recession is making itself felt even though, after the enlargements of 2004 and 2007, the 500 million-strong EU has become the world's biggest economy, accounting for 30% of the world's gross domestic product and 17% of global trade.

As an entity with functioning internal-market rules, the EU stands an infinitely better chance of overcoming the effects of the financial crisis than isolated economies would. But somehow nobody is willing to believe that. At the informal EU summit on 1 March, we saw, much to our relief, that no member state crossed the line of protectionism in implementing their national recovery plans. Nonetheless, the media have become accustomed to applying different sets of criteria to suggest that the internal market can be, or indeed already is, divided.

First, it was the ‘small country v large country' pattern (supposedly 14 v 13). After all, if national financial institutions or businesses were to collapse, those with dozens of millions of inhabitants would surely have to face much greater social upheaval than those with hundreds of thousands or a mere few million inhabitants. But European industry and the system of parent companies and subsidiaries permeate the EU's member states in a way that evens out such differences. To give two examples, car manufacturers in the Czech Republic include European, but also Asian, companies and the situation is similar as regards banking services.

A second criterion for drawing a new dividing line was the ‘old' and ‘new' member-state label (15 v 12). But it immediately became clear that the different positions adopted during the financial crisis and the different types of impact that it has had do not follow this line. For example, measures to rescue the banking sector in some old member states have required more effort and investment than in central and eastern European countries. In the Czech Republic, for instance, we have not needed to rescue the banking sector at all.

Recently, the most common attempt to polarise the member states has been based on whether a country is a member of the single-currency zone (16 v 11). The euro alone, however, does not reflect the real state of the economy. Only a few eurozone states would now be able to meet the convergence criteria, especially the limits for budget deficits and debt, while the Czech Republic last year kept the discipline required for convergence.

One recent theory of a two-speed Europe is based on the assumption that banks of predominantly old and large EU states, members of the eurozone, might lose the assets they have invested in central and eastern Europe, making it necessary to ‘prevent the collapse of their national currencies' and ‘make them fulfil their obligations'. National currencies are not, however, endangered more that the single currency is, due to trade as well as a common exchange-rate movement towards third currencies. And subsidiaries are fulfilling their obligations vis-à-vis parent companies. Speaking for the Czech Republic, our country went through a banking crisis in the late 1990s, thanks to which it has an efficient system of financial control. It does not need a new one.

The toxicity of assets of foreign banks should not be blamed on the countries where these banks placed their investments, but on the banks themselves – their management is solely responsible for breaking the rules on risk management and the consequences of providing credit in a currency other than that of the income of the debtor. And they cannot solve their problems by draining their subsidiaries outside the eurozone of funds, but by preserving the possibility of providing credit to those companies where it pays off – those that keep producing and selling goods and only need to bridge a period in which the global crisis has dried up funds. Risk assessment must again be done by the banks themselves. Good management is less discernible from bad management during times of general prosperity than during an economic crisis.

Speaking not only for the Czech Republic, our historical experience clearly shows that a crisis can also become an impulse for improvement and development – provided we assume responsibility for ‘causes and consequences' at a national as well as at a European level. It is ironic and sad that I, as a ‘Euro-realist' (for some a Eurosceptic), must exhort others in the EU (including some Euro-optimists) to obey the rules, that I must call for unity and that I must remind everybody of the values on which the EU has been built and of the risks if we abuse or abandon those values. This crisis is testing not only our competence and integration; it is testing not only countries, companies and individuals. It is testing the entire EU project.

Mirek Topolánek is prime minister of the Czech Republic and the current holder of the presidency of the European Council.

Russia, Ukraine still arguing over Black Sea Fleet

12:52 | 25/ 03/ 2009



MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti military commentator Ilya Kramnik) - Russia and Ukraine have been arguing over the Sevastopol-based Black Sea Fleet for a long time.

In the first years following the break-up of the Soviet Union, the two countries, both legal successors to the U.S.S.R., wrangled over the distribution of warships, bases and other naval property.

Although the Black Sea Fleet was divided in 1997, Moscow and Kiev did not ratify the relevant bilateral agreements until March 24, 1999. Moreover, both sides continue their heated arguments over the fleet's future.

The struggle for the Black Sea Fleet's future began on April 5, 1992 when the then Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk signed a decree On Urgent Measures to Develop the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The document placed the former Soviet Black Sea Fleet under Kiev's jurisdiction. There were also plans to establish the Ukrainian navy on the basis of the fleet's elements deployed in Ukraine. In effect, this implied that Kiev would be able to control the entire Black Sea Fleet. However, the Ukrainian government had no right to make this decision.

At that time, the Black Sea Fleet was part of the Joint CIS Armed Forces and the CIS Navy, commanded by Fleet Admiral Vladimir Chernavin.

On April 7, 1992, Russian President Boris Yeltsin issued his own decree placing the Black Sea Fleet under Moscow's jurisdiction. The Kremlin proposed settling the crisis through negotiations. Both Kiev and Moscow suspended the aforesaid decrees for the duration of the talks.

Protracted diplomatic bargaining was hindered by Kiev's efforts to persuade Black Sea Fleet personnel to swear allegiance to Ukraine, to establish control over the fleet and to present Moscow with a fait accompli.

On May 28, 1997, the final intergovernmental agreements on the status of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, the terms for its deployment in Ukraine, fleet-division parameters and mutual settlements linked with the fleet's division and deployment in Ukraine were signed in Kiev.

At present, the Black Sea Fleet comprises 50 warships and motor boats, as well as several dozen auxiliary ships. The number of fleet-aviation and coastal-defense units has dwindled manifold.

The fleet, which used to dominate the Black Sea and to vie with NATO forces in the Mediterranean Sea, is now smaller than the Turkish navy but larger than all other Black Sea navies put together.

Black Sea Fleet warships do not sail to the Mediterranean Sea on a regular basis, while the situation along Russia's southern borders has been aggravated. In August 2008, the fleet had to conduct combat operations during the Five Day War with Georgia.

The Ukrainian navy did not profit from warships received after the Black Sea Fleet's division. An overwhelming majority of them were soon scrapped, while the rest are considered unsuitable for service.

Nevertheless, political debates on the Black Sea Fleet continue unabated. Ukrainian nationalists and their supporters are demanding that Russia withdraw its warships from Sevastopol as soon as possible and do not want to discuss the possible extension of the naval base lease contract after 2017.

Although various Russian politicians and movements are also trying to score political points on the Black Sea Fleet issue, many of them do not care much about defending Russia's southern borders.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

DE BORCHGRAVE: Geopolitical psychiatry

Arnaud de Borchgrave
Monday, March 23, 2009

Link: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/mar/23/geopolitical-psychiatry/

Few know more about Afghanistan than Marin Strmecki. He has been involved with bloody events there for the last 20 years. He was a policy coordinator and special adviser on Afghanistan with the defense secretary and is a member of the Defense Policy Board, the defense secretary's think tank. Critically important, his recent congressional testimony was overlooked by mainstream media.

Director of Programs at the Smith Richardson Foundation, a private foundation that supports public policy research and analysis, Mr. Strmecki sees Afghanistan as both opportunity and challenge at a time when experts begin seeking ways to exit from what a growing number see as a Vietnamlike quagmire.

For Mr. Strmecki, the vast majority of 30 million Afghans oppose Taliban as they experienced their pseudo-religious excesses for four years in the late 1990s. Afghans have also known nothing but war for the last 30 years. But local communities cannot defend themselves from Taliban intimidation and attacks.

Mr. Strmecki says reversing these negative trends will require:

(1) Rededicated U.S. leadership.

(2) Greater resources, including more troops.

(3) Improved strategy and tactics.

(4) Geopolitical therapy for Pakistani generals who hedge their bets with Taliban out of fear the Vietnam syndrome may return and collapse the U.S. commitment.

None of this will be possible until Pakistan has eliminated Taliban's safe havens in FATA (the Federal Administered Tribal Areas). So the focus of U.S. policy should be to defeat a real and growing threat arising from a set of violent extremist groups based in Pakistan's tribal areas and their supporters in Pakistan. This also means "strengthening elements in Pakistan opposed to extremism and finding ways progressively to narrow the areas in Pakistan in which the extremists can operate until these organizations have in effect been A key task, Mr. Strmecki adds, is "to induce elements of the Pakistani government that have historic ties to the Taliban and other groups to make a strategic choice to cooperate fully in eliminating extremist sanctuaries." Both President Pervez Musharraf, a military dictator, and his successor Asif Zardari, who now is trying to play by democratic rules, pledged to do just that.

Pakistan, "a major non-NATO ally" of the United States and one of the world's eight nuclear powers, has been unable to cope with nationwide terrorist actions against the government, let alone wipe out the privileged sanctuaries enjoyed by the Afghan insurgency in the border tribal areas. Taliban guerrillas have grown steadily stronger since late 2005. At the same time, a corrupt Karzai government has lost popular support.

Violent extremists operating out of Pakistan and eroding Afghan legitimacy at home produced today's Pentagon view that we are losing by not winning.

Mr. Strmecki believes this grave situation can be reversed even though former Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell heard from a Pakistani general that the Pakistani military was supporting Taliban. A subsequent U.S. intelligence report said Pakistan "regularly gave the Taliban 'weapons and support to go into Afghanistan to attack Afghan and coalition forces.' "

"The starting point in trying to change [the alleged] orientation of [elements in Pakistan's military and intelligence establishment] is to understand the reasons for their actions. Mr. Strmecki says there are five:

(1) Fear that Pakistan's regional rivals - particularly India - will secure undue influence in the Afghan government. Among Pakistani complaints are President Karzai's close ties to India and accusations that anti-Pakistani intelligence and political activities are orchestrated from Indian consulates and road building companies in eastern and southern Afghanistan.

(2) A belief the United States, as well as NATO, lacks staying power and will abandon Afghanistan. This, in turn, will lead to the failure of the Karzai government and a reprise of the proxy competition among regional rivals of the 1990s. Ergo, now's the time to field proxy forces to gain positional advantage in the fight to come.

(3) Fear that a successful Afghanistan will exert a dangerous political appeal to ethnic Pashtuns who live in Pakistan. The unresolved legal status of the Durand Line (that marks the frontier) and the history of tensions with Afghanistan over the Pushtunistan issue exacerbate this concern.

(4) The strategic aspiration of some in Islamabad to project Pakistani influence into Central Asia through Afghanistan.

(5) The belief that the United States will only remain engaged with Pakistan - and provide military and economic assistance - if security threats draw us into the region. This leads to the view that Pakistan's interests lie in acting as a "strategic rentier state, perpetuating a degree of insecurity in order to be paid to reduce it."

It would seem Pakistan, elevated to "major non-NATO ally" by President Bush, needs a geopolitical psychiatrist, a role now assigned to Special Envoy Richard Holbrooke. Meanwhile, Mr. Strmecki says a key objective should be to draw out from Pakistani military and intelligence leaders what are their strategic concerns and to advance discussion between the two sides about how these might be addressed in a manner consistent with a strong and stable Afghanistan. His five-part psychotherapy:

(1) Create a system of red lines governing the activities in Afghanistan of all regional powers, including both Pakistan and India, to allay concerns that one rival is gaining unilateral advantage and to provide a transparent system for monitoring compliance.

(2) Craft credible commitments on the part of the United States to remain the principal external power engaged in state-building in Afghanistan, particularly regarding security institutions, and to take Pakistani security concerns into account in formulating its policies.

(3) Mediate discussions between Afghan and Pakistani leaders to arrive at a common understanding of the border regime and use relations between the Pushtun communities in both countries to foster constructive social and economic ties.

(4) Make commitments to plan, jointly with Kabul and Islamabad and to finance the construction of the infrastructure to connect Central Asia through Afghanistan and Pakistan, thus enabling expansion of trade, cultural and political ties.

(5) Develop a major package - on the order of U.S. assistance to Egypt - to support the economic and social development in Pakistan, including support to improve the educational system, to stimulate growth of private enterprise - all to demonstrate the U.S. values a long-term relationship with Pakistan for its own sake, not just as a tactical necessity in the war on terror.

Geopolitical psychiatry is not America's diplomatic strong suit.

Arnaud de Borchgrave, is editor at large for The Washington Times and for United Press International.

VARUN GANDHI: AS MUCH SINNED AGAINST AS SINNING

B.RAMAN

As I read the late night communication of the Election Commission to Varun Gandhi, son of Sanjay and Maneka Gandhi and grandson of Indira Gandhi, and his reply to the Election Commission, I was reminded of the exchange of midnight missives between his illustrious grandmother and the so-called Syndicate in the Congress before the Presidential elections in the late 1960s in which V.V.Giri, supported by her, was elected and Sanjiva Reddy, supported by the Syndicate, was defeated.

2. Indira Gandhi rightly viewed the machinations of the Syndicate as an attempt to marginalise her in the Congress Party and put a stop to her political aspirations. She fought back ferociously and ultimately prevailed. The Syndicate did not forgive her for this. When the Congress lost the elections after the lifting of the Emergency in 1977, the Syndicate had its moments of revenge. It got Sanjiva Reddy elected as the President and sought to humiliate her in every way possible. She ferociously fought back again and returned to power in 1980. Nobody remembers the Syndicate. Its members have been consigned to the dustbin of history. Everybody remembers Indira Gandhi.

3.A grand-son of Indira Gandhi is now fighting ferociously against what he apparently sees as an attempt by a syndicate of so-called secularists to discredit him and crush his political aspirations even before he could take his first firm steps in politics. He has every right to fight. His grand-mother must be watching from heaven her grand-son fighting as ferociously as she did against what he perceives to be the denial of the right of natural justice to him.

4.The extremely objectionable remarks alleged to have been made by Varun Gandhi during two pre-election meetings in the Philbit constituency should be strongly condemned by all right-thinking persons as distasteful, irresponsible and unworthy of a political leader if it is established that he did make those remarks.

5. If he had not contested those remarks and, on the contrary, if he had tried to justify them, there would have been no need for a further enquiry before condemning him. But he has contested the remarks which he is supposed to have made and he has not justified them. He has challenged the genuineness of the tapes and alleged that the tapes have been doctored.

6. In TV interviews, he has given a number of arguments as to why he contended that the tapes had been doctored. Many of his arguments could be dismissed as after-thoughts but not one, namely, his contention that in a tape he is shown as referring to a sister of his whereas he had no sister. If what he says about the contents of the tapes is correct, there is a serious mistake of fact in the remarks which he is shown as making. Where there is such a serious mistake of fact, there is a presumption of innocence in favour of the accused. He has not been given the benefit of this presumption.

7. There are certain procedural infirmities in the way the Election Commission has passed its order of March 22,2009, against Varun. The first infirmity arises from the fact that the Commission has passed an ex-parte order without giving Varun an opportunity to appear before the Commission and explain his conduct. An ex-parte order is permissible if a person against whom an enquiry is being made was given an opportunity to appear before the enquiry body and explain his conduct, but he did not do so. When a person fails to respond to a summons to appear before an enquiry body and explain his conduct, he is presumed to be avoiding the due process of the rules or the law. There is an automatic presumption of guilt against him.

8. All of us, including the distinguished members of the Election Commission, had served as bureaucrats. We had all done our training before we started our career. We had all attended courses in how to hold an enquiry and about the importance of being fair in an enquiry. There are detailed departmental orders in the Govt. of India and the States as to how to hold a fair enquiry. All these orders lay down that every person against whom an enquiry is held has a right for a personal hearing before the enquiry officer twice----- before the enquiry starts and again before an adverse ruling is pronounced by the enquiry officer. If Varun Gandhi is to be believed, these dos and don'ts of a fair enquiry were not followed in his case.

9. The second infirmity arises with regard to Varun's contention that the tapes seem to have been doctored. The Election Commission has held that it was for him to prove this. How could he have explained to the Commission as to why he thought that the tapes might have been doctored if he was not given an opportunity for a personal hearing. There are two ways of proving that a tape must have been doctored---- forensically or by pointing out serious mistakes of fact in the contents of the tape, which are glaring and could not have been made by him. It would have been but fair that he was given an opportunity to appear before the Commission and explain why he contended that the tapes must have been doctored.

10.Priyanka Gandhi, another grand-child of Indira Gandhi, has reportedly advised Varun to read and understand the Gita better. She should too. In fact, all of us, who consider ourselves proud Hindus, should. In the Gita, Lord Krishna advises and convinces Arjun as to why one should sometimes fight even against one's kith and kin if there were strong moral grounds for doing so.

11. That is why Indira Gandhi fought ferociously against the Syndicate of the Congress.

12. If Varun thinks that he should emulate his illustrious grand-mother and fight ferociously against what he sees as the unfair attitude of the syndicate of so-called secularists against him, he has every right to do so.

13. Incidentally, if Varun is guilty of inciting hatred against the members of another community--- a charge that he denies strongly--- Lord Krishna was guilty of inciting hatred among members of the same family. (24-3-09)

(The writer is former Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi )

CIA CHIEF'S VISIT TO INDIA & PAKISTAN

B.RAMAN

Leon Panetta, who took over as the 19th Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) on February 13,2009, is presently on his first overseas tour. After having visited India from March 18 to 20,2009, he proceeded to Pakistan for discussions with Pakistani Army and intelligence officers and political leaders.

2.Panetta, who chose India for his first overseas visit since assuming office, arrived in New Delhi, along with Peter Burleigh, a 67-year-old retired American career diplomat, who has been designated as the "Interim Ambassador" of the US to India . It has been reported that he will act as the Charge d' Affaires (CDA) in the US Embassy in New Delhi till an Ambassador is nominated by President Barack Obama and his nomination is confirmed by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

3. The Obama Administration is understood to have put all major decisions relating to India including political-level bilateral visits at Cabinet level and the designation of the new Ambassador on hold till the elections to the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Indian Parliament, are
over and a new Government is in position in New Delhi by May-end. However, this decision would not affect exchange of visits at the senior level of bureaucrats. Moreover, Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh is due to meet President Barrack Obama for the first time in the margins of the G-20 summit at London next month.

4. Panetta, whose parents had migrated to California from Italy, had served as a member of the House of Representatives from one of the constituencies of California, from 1977 to 1993. He served as the Chairman of the Budget Committee of the House for the last four years of his term in the House. He then became Director of the Office of Management and Budget. From July 1994 to January 1997, he served as the Chief of Staff to the then President Bill Clinton.

5. As the White House Chief of Staff, he became close to Bill and Hillary Clinton. It is believed that he stilll maintains this close personal friendship with the Clintons and that Bill Clinton played a role in the surprise decision of Obama in January last to nominate him as the new Director of the CIA, despite the fact that the 70-year-old Panetta, who has become the oldest chief of the CIA in its history, has never had any exposure to professional intelligence work except for three years from 1964 to 66 when he had served as an army intelligence officer. His area expertise is limited to Iraq. He had served as a member of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group set up by the Congress in 1996 to make an independent assessment of the war in Iraq.

6. Obama's nomination of a non-professional with no past exposure to the work of the CIA as the new Director came in for criticism not only from some retired officers of the US intelligence community, but also from some members of the Congressional Intelligence Oversight Committees. Despite this, his nomination was confirmed and he took over as the new Director. In his first address to the CIA officers after taking over, Panetta, who has a keen sense of humour, referred jocularly to references to him in some sections of the media as the oldest Director of the CIA and reportedly pointed out that the dog, which won a popular annual dog show this year, was 10 years old.

7. It is believed that Obama chose him as the Director because of his excellent reputation in the past as a good manager. Knowledgable people say that Obama, who is keen to tone up administration and man management in the CIA and rid it of unethical practices in the war against terrorism, felt that only an outsider would be able to do it without covering up past unethical practices. Moreover, under George Tenet as the Director during the invasion and occupation of Iraq, the CIA had come in for criticism for avoiding projecting the true ground situation to President George Bush. It allegedly told Bush and his Vice-President Dick Cheney what they liked to be told and not what they ought to have been told. Panetta is expected to correct the analytical methods of the CIA in order not to let its reports and analyses be influenced by the preconceptions of the President.

8. In his first message to the CIA officers, Panetta has been quoted as saying: "When President Obama asked if I would accept this assignment, he said he wanted someone he could trust, who was independent, and who would call them as he sees them. Throughout my 40-year career in government, I have made it a point to speak honestly to my colleagues, my coworkers, my constituents, and my President. I hope that we can speak honestly to each other and to those we serve."

9. Till 2004, the Director of the CIA was also the Director, Central Intelligence, and in that capacity, in addition to running the CIA,co-ordinated the working of the entire intelligence community. In 2004, acting on a recommendation of the National Commission, which enquired into the 9/11 terrorist strikes, Bush separated the two functions and created a separate and a higher level post of Director National Intelligence to handle the work of co-ordination. From the pre-2004 status of the first among equals, Director CIA has now become one among equals in the intelligence community. Despite this, he occupies a very high position in policy-making relating to national security and in that capacity, Panetta will be in the inner core of Obama's advisers.

10. If Obama chose Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State, to pay the first overseas visit at the Cabinet level to Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and China to underline the importance attached by his administration to this region, it is significant that the first overseas visit of an inner core policy adviser has been to India and Pakistan. This underlines the importance attached by Obama to the US relations with India and to the importance of Pakistan from the point of the fight against terrorism.

11. It is interesting that the CIA, India's Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) and Intelligence Bureau (IB) are having new heads who took over during the course of the last 11 weeks.Rajiv Mathur, a career intelligence officer, took over as the Director of the IB, on January 1,2009, K.C. Verma, as Secretary (R), the head of the R&AW, on February 1,2009, and Panetta as the Director of the CIA on February 13,2009. Whereas Panetta is totally new to the profession, Mathur and Verma have over two decades of exposure to professional intelligence work. They would have got going from the moment they took over, but Panetta will take time to get a hang of the operatuional work before he is able to impart his stamp.

12. It is equally interesting to note that just as Obama nominated Panetta as the chief of the CIA to tone up its man management and administration and to rid it of unhealthy practices, the Manmohan Singh Government reportedly inducted K.C.Verma from the IB to the R&AW with a similar objective. There has been as much criticism of the internal functioning of the R&AW as there was of the CIA.

13. One could assess without fear of contradiction that the New Delhi visit of Panetta, who is still to find his feet as an intelligence chief, would have had a much larger political objective for Obama. Firstly, to reassure Indian leaders that the first visit of Hillary Clinton to China does not mean the downgrading of the US relations with India. Secondly, to reassure India of continued US assistance in the investigation of the 26/11 terrorist strike in Mumbai and continued US pressure on Pakistan to investigate the case seriously and sincerely. Thirdly, to assess the pre-election political scene in India for his President.

14. The nomination of Burleigh as an "interim Ambassador" and CDA and his travelling together with Panetta to New Delhi underline the US interest in monitoring and assessing the pre-election political scene. The Obama Administration's avoidance of any major policy initiatives and pronouncements with regard to India is motivated by its desire to keep its options open and not to burn in advance its bridges with any dispensation coming to office in New Delhi after the elections. The US has many retired diplomats , who had spent many years of their career in the sub-continent. All of them are quite knowledgeable on India--- but each only on some aspects of India.Some are knowledgeable on the Congress Party, some on the BJP and its Hindutva group amd some others, who had served in the sub-continent in the cold war years, are knowledgeable on the communist parties and their suspected links with the then USSR and China.

15. Burleigh belongs to the third category. He had his first exposure to the sub-continent as a Peace Corps volunteer in Nepal in the early 1960s. From the Peace Corps, he gravitated to the State Department and spent some years of his diplomatic career in Nepal, India and Sri Lanka. As a junior diplomat, he had served in the US Embassy in Colombo from 1968 to 1970 and in New Delhi from 1973 to 1975. He also served as the US Ambassador to Sri Lanka from 1995 to 1997. In one of the web sites of the old Peace Corps volunteers, he had entered the following post about himself: "After graduating from Colgate in 1963, I spent two years as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Nepal, then a year of graduate study in South Asian affairs at the University of Pennsylvania, and another year in Nepal on a student Fulbright grant.
On returning from Nepal in 1967, I joined the State Department and was assigned -- you guessed it -- to Sri Lanka, where I was a junior officer
trainee until 1970. I learned the language, Sinhala, at that time and, courtesy of Senator Jesse Helms (who, as chairman of the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee, held up final confirmation of 35 of us), was able to spend another seven months in 1995 resurrecting that
language ability. I use the language a lot, with Buddhist monks and village people in particular. English is widely used in government and the
commercial sector of the economy. Between 1970 and December 1995 I served in India, Bahrain and Nepal in positions of increasing seniority, and for the past 13 years I was in Washington in a series of jobs. These included three deputy assistant secretary positions as well as coordinator for counter-terrorism. The last position carried with it ambassadorial rank, though I was based in Washington. "

16. When he was posted in the US Embassy in New Delhi from 1973 to 75, the Indian communists and anti-US magazines like the "Blitz" used to accuse him of being a CIA officer working under a diplomatic cover. While it is difficult to prove this, it needs to be noted that he had served as the Counter-Terrorism Co-ordinator in the US State Department in Washington DC in 1991-92. Past holders of this post had a CIA or FBI background,

17. It is intriguing that the Obama Administration should have taken an old cold warrior such as Burleigh out of the circuit of retired diplomats and sent him to New Delhi to hold the fort in the US Embassy during the pre-poll interregnum. Has he been sent to monitor and assess the chances of the Third Front and the likely impact on India's policy towards the US should the Third Front which has the communists as partners come to power? A valid question, but difficult to answer. The Congress (I) and the BJP are known quantities to the State Department and the US wouldn't be unduly concerned if either of them comes to power at the head of a coalition. But the Third Front with its Communists is an unknown kettle of fish.

18. Panetta's visit to New Delhi during which he had publicised meetings with P.Chidambram, the Home Minister, in addition to meetings with M.K.Narayanan, the National Security Adviser,K.C.Verma,and Rajeev Mathur, has been criticised by the Communist Party of India (Marxist).In a statement, the party’s Polit Bureau said this was the first time that the CIA chief was accorded a meeting with the Union Home Minister. Apart from meeting his intelligence counterparts in India, Panetta was received at the political level, signalling the new status of the CIA in India. It added: “The CIA is notorious for its interventions in the political affairs of various countries including destabilising governments considered inimical to U.S. interests.The development is a pointer to how things have changed under the Manmohan Singh Government. India is fast becoming like Pakistan where the CIA and the FBI chiefs meet with the Interior Minister and Prime Minister.
The role being played by the U.S. security and military agencies in the country and the manner in which the Congress-led Government is promoting such ties should be a matter of serious concern for all those who wish to protect national sovereignty and the integrity of the country’s democratic system."

19.The Indian intelligence has been having a liaison relationship with the CIA since the days of Jawaharlal Nehru. This was handled by the IB till September,1968, and thereafter by the R&AW. Many CIA chiefs had visited India in the past. Their visits used to be graded as top secret. Their programme in New Delhi used to be restricted to professional discussions with the heads of the IB and the R&AW and a courtesy call on the Prime Minister.

20. This was for security and political reasons. Before international terrorism became a majour source of concern, the securty reasons mainly related to possible threats to the physical security of the visiting CIA chief from the intelligence agencies of the communist countries. After the collapse of the USSR and other communist regimes in East Europe and after the normalisation of the US relations with China, this concern is no longer there. But, since the late 1980s, terrorism has become a major source of concern. CIA officials responsible for the security of their Director and their officials posted in India for liaison purposes used to prefer that the visits be kept secret. Indian agencies too preferred secrecy because they were rightly concerned that if the visits were open, jihadi terrorist threats to India and to US nationals and interests in India, including to the US diplomatic and consular missions in India, might increase.

21. This position started changing when Atal Behari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister. The visit of George Tenet, the then Director of the CIA, to India was kept a secret, but the visits of the No.2 to Tenet subsequenly were publicised. L.K.Advani, the then Home Minister, came to be associated with the visits of CIA officials to New Delhi. Their programmes included a courtesy call on the Home Minister. Not only that, Advani too, during his visit to the US in 2002, reportedly called on Tenet in his office. This caused some eyebrow-raising because while it is normal for a visiting bureaucrat --- as a CIA Director is---to call on important political leaders of the host country, it is unusual for a senior political leader ranking No.2 in the Government to call on a bureaucrat of the host country. Pakistani leaders, in their eagerness to cultivate the US, do it often, but Indian leaders had not done it in the past. There was some unhappiness in sections of the Indian intelligence community that this could downgrade the importance and status of Indian intelligence chiefs in the eyes of their US counterparts. If US intelligence officials have easy access to our senior Ministers, why should they bother about our intelligence chiefs?

22. Panetta's visit to Pakistan is evidently related to the messy political situation there and to the on-going review by the Obama Administration of its strategy to counter Al Qaeda and the Taliban. There is a general acceptance among the advisers of Obama that no strategy can succeed without the co-operation of Pakistan and that, at the same time, exercising too much pressure on Pakistan can prove counter-productive and add to the political instability. The search for a credible policy of carrots (enhanced military and economic aid) and sticks (continuing Predator strikes and threats of more if the Pakistan Army does not act) is still continuing. The CIA plays an important role in this search. The Predator strikes----over 30 since last September and 6 of them since Obama assumed office---- are handled by the CIA. Obama has not yet taken a policy decision on the recommendation by his advisers to extend the Predator strikes to attack the hide-outs of the Neo Taliban of Afghanistan in Balochistan. There has been strong opposition to this extension not only from Pakistani political and military leaders, but also from some US analysts and Congressmen, who fear this could turn messy and add to the political instability in Pakistan. If Obama ultimately decides to extend the strikes to Balochistan, the CIA will have to co-ordinate them. One of the purposes of Panetta's visit will be to make an on-the-spot assessment of the implications before a final decision is taken. (22-3-09)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

MIDDLE EAST 2009: POLITICAL DYNAMICS STIRRED BY UNITED STATES

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Introductory Observations

The geo-strategic and geo-political environment is astir in March 2009 in the wake of the Obama Administration taking over the reins of power in the United States in January 2009.

The Middle East region as a whole has consistently posed strategic challenges to successive US Administrations in terms of retaining American predominance in a region which geo-strategically is home to the world’s largest oil and natural gas reserves and abounds in strategic choke-points through which these energy resources must pass to American, Western and global markets.

The Middle East region's apparent Islamic monolithic structure is beset with intra-regional rivalries amongst the Islamic nations themselves, divided as they are by strategic, political and military rivalries besides the ethnic divides of Arab versus- non-Arab nations and the sectarian divides within Islam itself of Sunnis versus Shias.

Despite their pretensions to regional power states of a number of Middle East nations, the countries of the Middle East look forward to and silently welcome United States strategic and military presence in the Middle East for regional peace and stability.

The new US Obama Administration besides inheriting the persisting traditional strategic challenges to US national security interests in the Middle East also inherited the legacy for finding viable solutions to stabilize Iraq and Afghanistan.

Recognizing that the United States has no options to outsource strategic stability operations to its NATO Allies (reluctant) and also that the Untied States military predominance alone would not suffice to bring peace and order in the conflict-ridden Middle East region, the new US Obama Administration seems to have embarked on a new Middle East strategy of politically co-opting the region's major and influential powers, including adversaries like Iran, to lessen the conflictual profile in the Middle East.

In recent weeks, the US Obama Administration has recalibrated US foreign policies in the Middle East in an attempt to break out from the status-quo. While only time will tell how successful these initiatives will ultimately turn out to be but the fact remains that the United States has no other policy alternatives to regain stability in the Middle East in tandem with securing US national security objectives.

Central to the new Middle East policy strategy of the Obama Administration are the major initiatives for (1) Reviving United States strategic and political linkages with Turkey (2) A political outreach to Iran (3) REducing US animosities with Syria and (4) An active interest in the Palestine-Israel conflict.

This Paper attempts to analyze the new Middle East policy initiatives of the Obama Administration under the following heads.

Turkey: Revival of Turkey’s Geo-Strategic Significance in US Strategic Calculus
Iran: United States Initiates a Guarded Political Outreach
Syria-US Relations: A Thaw Visible
Palestine-Israel Conflict: A Pro-Active US Interest
Before one proceeds to analyze the above emerging trends, this Author would like to assert, as has been done in his past Papers, that in the emerging global power play the Obama Administration would have to co-opt Russia as a strategic player in the Middle East.

Turkey: Revival of Turkey’s Geo-Strategic Significance in US Strategic Calculus

Turkey declining to permit use by of US NATO bases in Turkey for Gulf War II military operations against Iraq led to a devaluation of Turkey in the US strategic calculus. This trend was further reinforced by the present Turkish Governments religious tilts moving away from secularism and so also adopting a larger political profile in relation to relations with Iran and Syria.

Notwithstanding the above, the strategic reality is that Turkey is still the most significant geo-strategic and geo-political player in the Middle East. This significance was highlighted in this Author’s Papers last year. This has been brought about by its unique geo-strategic location at the cross-roads of Europe, Asia and Central Asia, a highly modernized, democratic and moderate and secular Islamic political structure and a vibrant economy. Turkey today enjoys good political relations across the entire Middle East spectrum and in the process of moving towards a strategic cooperation with Russia, even though continuing as the strongest member of NATO, second to USA.

Turkey today is therefore uniquely placed to play an important strategic and political role in the Middle East to further US strategic interests with the caveat that the United States indulges in a “Strategic Reach-out” to revive and restore Turkey’s US-devalued relationship.

The new US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton paid a significant visit to Turkey within weeks of Obama Administration taking control. It was during this visit to Turkey that she made the striking political announcement that President Obama would visit Turkey in April 2019.

This would be President Obama’s first visit to a Moslem country and it is most likely that Obama’s projected address to the Moslem world would take place in Turkey.

The Obama Administration seems to be envisaging a major role for Turkey in the Middle East in relation to the following intractable challenges that confront United States (1) Major role in Iraq’s stability (2) Regaining control and contribute to US efforts to restoring stability in Afghanistan (3) Normalization of US relations with Iran (4) Dilute Iranian and Syrian support to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza (5) Promote US influence in Central Asia (6) Arrest Turkey’s drift towards strategic cooperation with Russia.

Going by Turkish media reports, political analyses and commentaries, Turkish public opinion has well received the visit of US secretary of State and the forthcoming visit of President Clinton.

In Turkish eyes it seems not only as a US re-affirmation of the long mutual trust in strategic and political relations with Turkey but also as a great boost to Turkey’s image profile and standing in the Middle East.

Geo-strategically and politically one could therefore hope for an optimistic buoyancy in US-Turkey relations.

Iran: United States Initiates a Guarded Political Outreach

United States and Iran can be said to have reached a strategic and political stalemate in their relations, in the sense that the United States policies have not been able to arrest the advancement of Iran’s nuclear program and that Iran has been unable to breach the international isolation imposed by the United States and its allies.

In this process the United States has not been able to restore stability and remove strategic uncertainties in the Middle East. Animosity with Iran has distorted realistic US strategic policies in Greater South West Asia.

Similarly, continuing Iranian hostility and adversarial approaches towards the United States has arrested Iran’s true strategic worth as one of the predominant players in the Middle East region.

The strategic imperatives of United States- Iran rapprochement were analyzed in this Author’s SAAG Paper No1352 dated 28.40.2005 entitled "United States Imperatives for Rapprochement With Iran: A Perspective Analysis"

This strategic imperatives still stand and are further reinforced by US challenges in Iraq, Afghanistan and the possible state-failure in Pakistan.

In an apparent recognition of this strategic reality, President Obama in a televised TV address to the Iranian nation expressed the American desire to establish a political dialogue with Iran in an attempt to improve relations.

It has been a significant TV address to the Iranian nation by a US President even through some parts denoted warnings. The Iranian official responses were not exuberant, but guarded and with their own caveats.

This is understandable in view of a 30 year record of open and public hostile postures between USA and Iran.

What is important however is that the first tentative steps have been taken by the United States and that there is one rejection from Iran’s side. And this is a positive development for Middle East stability.

Normalization between the United States and Iran will be time consuming as countries like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have a vested strategic interest in impeding US-Iran rapprochement.

Iran as a centuries old civilization views strategic and political relationships as “chess-games” played with timeless pondering and deliberation in each move.

The United States would have to be extra-ordinarily patient in the move forward of the normalization process.

Syria-US Relations: A Thaw Visible

Syria-US relations has been in a downslide since Gulf War II conflict with Iraq. United States reports indicated that Syria was hosting Sunni extremists hostile to US military take-over of Iraq following Saddam Hussein’s ouster.

Strategically irksome for the US policy establishment were additional factors like (1) Syria’s close relations with Iran (2) Syria’s military support to the anti-US militias in Lebanon (3) Syria’s implacable hostility towards Israel and impeding the Middle East Peace Process.

Syria was not only consequently viewed with suspicion by the United States and Israel but also by a number of Arab states in the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia.

Noticeably, Syria lately has made some conciliatory moves both towards USA and Saudi Arabia. In evidence in terms of intra-regional dynamics was Syria’s high-level participation in Saudi Arabia sponsored talks seeking options for stability in the Middle East.

The United States policy establishment could make some more determined moves to bring about a normalization in Syria-US relations even though the major impediment in this direction would be US sensitivities for Israel’s strategic priorities in the region.

Palestine-Israel Conflict: A Pro-Active US Interest

Many conferences and multilateral negotiations have been held internationally to find a solution to this vexatious conflict. All such initiatives could not find success they floundered on the rocks of vested strategic interests of some major Middle East nations in keeping this conflict alive perpetually as a bargaining lever against the United States.

Generally, one would be tempted to assert that the United States, Russia etc should wash their hands off from solving this conflict and leave it to the local parties to resolve the issue militarily or politically or by a mix of both.

Alternatively, the United States and so also the Middle East Quartet could draw “red lines” for both protagonists which as a basic cannot be crossed or compromised namely the existence of Israel as a nation state needs to be accepted and so also the rights of the Palestinian people.

In the present decade, the United States role on this issue has been spasmodic. It was revived with vigor in 2008 by the outgoing Bush Administration, but by that time US involvements in Iraq and Afghanistan with Pakistan added, had robbed USA much of its strategic leverages.

In its very first year, the Obama Administration may have to adopt a highly pro-active profile in moves to attempt solution of this issue. Or at best,warn countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran to not mess-around in these conflict.

Concluding Observations

More than any other strategic regions of the globe, the Middle East in the 21st Century presents the dubious prospect of being the most conflict-prone region globally. Global armed conflicts or strategic jostling can arise at any moment in this region not only because of intra-regional rivalries but more for reasons connected to energy security, control of strategic choke points and nuclear and WMD proliferation.

Besides these major issues the propensity of major conservative Islamic countries not to be pro-active in controlling or liquidating Islamic Jihadi impulses to proliferate to threaten US and the West, are another complicating feature.

The United States under the Obama Administration has stirred the political dynamics of the Middle East by a strategically realistic yet imaginative initiatives towards Turkey and Iran – the two major regional powers of the Middle East.

One could be tempted to assert that the United States selection of Turkey and Iran has been politically imaginative. Turkey has been a long-standing United States and NATO ally. Iran before 1979 Islamic Revolution was the central pillar of United State strategic architecture in the Middle East. In both cases therefore there is a common element of present and past strategic and military engagement with the United States.

Syria added to Turkey and Iran as essential components of the new US policies to promote its strategic interests in the Middle East would provide the United States a strong and stable “Northern Tier” in the Middle East contributing towards overall Middle East security and stability.

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila.007@gmail.com)

Diverse economy comes after capitalism and communism

Diverse economy comes after capitalism and communism (part I)

20.03.2009 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/107267-Diverse_economy-0

By Cage Innoye

In 1991 communism failed. In 2008 capitalism failed us. In the space of 17 years, two great economic systems based upon very elaborate and self-convinced ideologies collapsed. Two great peoples, American and Russian, are stunned and wandering in a vacuous period of human history, in a great pause between ages.

In 2009 in America, we are victims in the aftermath of a hurricane, stripped of our certainty with a post traumatic stress disorder of economies.

A third system is coming; it is not greedy capitalism, and it is not socialism or statism either. The next system is a “diverse economy” of diverse measures and performance goals, diverse social organization, diverse ownership, diverse firms, and a diverse market. It is the product of a thorough application of the concept of “diversity” to economics, business and finance, and it leads to a completely different system, though it logically follows from the existing one.

This new economy could also be called a “metric economy”; it appends pure money as the sole performance measure of a firm and adds many other fundamental measures of success; when investing in a company these measures are utilized and when buying products from a business these measures are applied too.

Pursuit simply of money and pure profit neglects a myriad of other values and issues; it creates a highly one-sided system. A metric system requires the new metrics; firms would voluntarily join “industrial leagues” and follow the rules of the game. Examples of the new metrics might include: standard measures of efficiency, raw production and consumer data, product quality, innovation, environmental management, charity, community relations, customer relations, employee relations and reward, equity, family support, community service, marketing and advertising ethics, planetary cooperation and aid, measures of long-term investment, raising product standards and many more things. All of these kinds of metrics would set beside money, we would have a full list of measures to consider rather than one sole measure of company performance, and this would limit the obsession and myopia of money.

Such an economy might lightheartedly be called a “sports economy”, the metaphor being sports teams racking up stats, competing in marketplace games. Companies would join leagues that enforce their particular rules for teams, rules that are different from an ordinary business.

This third system would create many new things and behaviors----

-Economic leagues of consumers, investors, communities that develop their own measures to rate company and product performance.

-Industrial leagues would arise where the metrics are mandatory and even sacred

-A new type of stock exchange would appear helping companies go metric and listing their securities for sale

-New metric style investment banking arises

-Exploration of many ownership forms rather than the narrow band that exists today, the idea would be to create diverse equity or “dequity”

-A fairer market would begin, one not dominated by monopolies and huge corporations

-A new kind of fiscal policy would appear that mixes both conventional fiscal tools with metric ones

-There would be a changing role for government as regulation would largely pass to individual companies and industrial leagues which self-regulate through their metrics

-Further, a new citizen will be born who thinks in the new terms of metrics and diversity as an investor, owner, employee, consumer, citizen

The diverse or metric economy is a third system that evolves out of two fundamental philosophic concepts: Diversity and Measure.

Such an economy is neither capitalist or communist. At the same time, it retains the historically proven techniques of capitalism, at least “ideal” capitalism – the free market, competition, innovation, cost reduction and so on. The new economy would thus be an evolution on capitalism, even taking its proclamations about “measure” to heart and following it to its logical conclusion, that is, measuring everything, and recognizing that money is simply one kind of measure among many -- a supply-and-demand measure! And the new economy takes current capitalism’s boasts of diversity and applies diversity to all things comprehensively, and arrives at something much better, much freer, open, creative and democratic.

So the new economy appreciates the critique of the left in regards to money and greed, monopolies and control, social safety nets and general well being. But it does not deduce the solution of government or party control. The new economy puts the measures right inside the firm, not in a government bureaucrat’s office. With the metric as a performance goal within a company, you do not need people on the outside making daily decisions, for they do not understand business in general or any specific business. The diverse economy accepts the left’s critique but not its solutions.

The role of the state in the new economy is for the regulation of only extreme issues and national concerns that one industry cannot manage itself. Also, the state would concentrate on fiscal policy and national economic planning. The state is not negated as in various conservative theories; the state has a role to play, however, not in the daily operation of business. It cannot replace the firms, leagues and citizens for they are the active daily and direct forces.

Today, we are indeed in a strange and terrifying situation.

Monetary capitalism seemed invincible, world communism fell before it. Capitalism

grew, it expanded, it bloated and then it burst. Without the boundaries to free-market thinking, de-regulation or laissez faire, its essential nature was given free rein, and its great inner weakness has been shown for all to see, and not just to policy makers and economists but in a naked and disturbing way to everyone on the planet.

Specifically, why did capitalism fail us? Very simply, de-regulation spread very bad mortgages across the planet in the form of mortgage-backed securities. George Bush, the SEC, the Treasury, the Federal Reserve sat by and let it all transpire. Why? Profit, greed, selfishness; there is no other possible answer.

To be continued...

Innoye is an American writer on the topics of economics, theology and philosophy. You can contact him at his email address, cageinnoye@gmail.com. His new book, “The Axxiad”, will be available soon; his website, newphilosophyandreligion.com, is now under construction.

---

Diverse economy comes after capitalism and communism (part II)

23.03.2009 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/107278-Diverse_economy-0

By Cage Innoye

…continued.

Click here to read part I

How would a metric or diverse economy have prevented the collapse in this situation?

First of all, public metrics on the basic and raw data would have flagged the bad mortgages immediately. Companies as part of financial leagues would have reported the honest, transparent truth.

And if leagues were hesitant, then consumer, investor and community leagues would have investigated and published information to all. Greed is not a value in a diverse economy. Overall metric health is the key concern.

Money operates differently in a metric economy. In the capitalist economy money is the sole measure. More, it is claimed as the true measure, and further, it is a total measure of all value!

But in fact, money is only a measure of supply and demand. Look at the rise and fall of oil prices. The Saudis pay $2 a barrel for their oil; we paid $147 last year. Supply and demand is the essential measure of money. More, if you examine the $2 per barrel cost, you will find even here that supply and demand determines prices of equipment, labor, maintenance and power.

There can be “objective” measures of a product for example but these would include scientific measures of labor time, materials, power usage and etc. But money and the real valuations in a monetary capitalist system have nothing to do with that, these are statistics for plant managers and engineers but not for CEOs or CFOs or MBAs.

The diverse economy has a diversity of measures and goal, that is, metrics. This set of metrics is more ethical, qualitative, practical and human than singular money. They demand not only higher standards but more standards serving the needs of consumers, investors, employees, communities.

Money sunders the “whole” of human values, the metric set in the form of some equation

will bring the “whole” back to us, and unite the whole of society through the leagues. The new MBA or “Metrician” of Business Administration thinks in wholes, just as the average citizen as investor, consumer, owner or worker must.

Money has an important role to play as a supply and demand metric. Its job is to tell us about the market, about need, about the immediate value of things, about the immediate direction of things, the flow of resources dictated by purchasing.

The metric economy utilizes a free market because a state system of investment decision making and product distribution is a disaster, as the 20th century has shown. Thus, we have buying and selling of products, securities and firms, but we use metric valuations for prices of goods or a firm’s assets and even salaries and wages. We merely introduce an additional dynamic in the marketplace having to do with the quality and standards of things. The existing market of buying and selling remains, the dynamics of price competition between firms remains, innovation remains and so on.

The exact formats for measure and combing measures with money are diverse, depending on schools of thought, specific industries and even general economic climate. Various equations and approaches can be devised; even this is subject to our diversity and our endless creativity. But these are particular details of the mechanics within such a system, a subject for another discussion.

In this new economy, metrics will be ubiquitous, the government can even provide a

“GMP”, gross metric product, for the entire economy, and not just a current GDP which is monetary. A GMP summing up all of our metrics will give us a much better picture of our wealth, our “metric wealth” at any given point.

Further, fiscal policy is appended by the dynamics of the metrics. In a metric economy the role of government moves up to a higher level of overall national planning, overall fiscal policy, overall representation in the global arena, and overall regulation of critical national issues that industries themselves cannot provide. The government leaves metric supervision to the firms and leagues on the axiom that you “cannot legislate ethics”, even in the realm of economics you cannot legislate values.

The present crisis could give us a unique opportunity to use the power of the state to initiate changes toward metric economic behavior. The government could demand that financial, auto, housing and energy corporations begin using new metrics in their reporting in exchange for $3 trillion of the people’s money. Government equities obtained during bailouts could be sold on metric stock markets. The state could legalize and support the formation of economic leagues for industries, consumers, investors, employees and communities. All government contracts could require that companies use metric reporting standards. And many more ideas could be applied.

In this way the government could begin the reform of conventional corporations, and encourage the creation of a new movement of entrepreneurs, new corporations and cooperatives. The problem with the present administration’s strategy is that it ultimately has no power against CEOs or corporations. The state cannot run the economy because it is not a business, it must ultimately rely on the present power holders. But with a strategy of building a metric economy, one can create a second economy, a movement in civil society, forming a dual-economy situation. Further, one can create a battle in the camp of existing firms for control, a reform struggle waged by consumers, investors, employees and communities.

In this way the government can help the formation of a metric economy in civil society; then the state can remove itself as the economy returns on its new basis. Legislation would include temporary powers and deadlines for handovers.

A new economic system is coming. A primary principle of this new world is diversity --- diversity of ownership, a diverse market, diverse firms, diverse performance targets, diverse leagues. With these principles in mind, a metric economy will be built by people who are not greedy or selfish or power-seeking.

Innoye is an American writer on the topics of economics, theology and philosophy. You can contact him at his email address, cageinnoye@gmail.com. His new book, “The Axxiad”, will be available soon; his website, newphilosophyandreligion.com, is now under construction.

India’s AfPak policy must not look at US for support

By Harsh V. Pant

Mar 23 : Stabilising Afghanistan has emerged as the topmost foreign policy priority of the Obama administration and in a few days a new policy towards the region, now dubbed "AfPak", is likely to be announced. Though the details remain unclear, two aspects of the new approach have already been highlighted by various members of the administration. One involves exploiting the fissures in the Taliban and negotiating with those elements who can be reconciled to the broader objective of supporting the Afghan government in some form. In an interview with the New York Times, US President Barack Obama said that such a reconciliation in Afghanistan "could be comparable" to the successful US effort to reconcile with Sunni militias in Iraq.

The second strand of the emerging strategy is a growing focus on Pakistan with an increasing realisation that the real source of problems in Afghanistan are the Afghan-Pakistan border areas where most of the Al Qaeda leadership has relocated after being shunted out of Afghanistan. Toward this end, greater financial and military aid will be provided to Pakistan to enable it to focus more on strengthening its counterinsurgency capabilities in order to fight more effectively with the extremists. The Biden-Lugar Bill, called the "Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Bill", will soon be reintroduced in the Senate as the Kerry-Lugar Bill leading to a quantum jump in aid to Pakistan, tripling the US non-military assistance to an annual $1.5 billion while continuing the military aid of the Bush administration.

For the US and the Nato, tired as they are of their Afghan venture, such an approach makes it possible to think of departing from the region over the next three to four years. However, the way the US has so far gone about delineating its strategy makes it highly unlikely that it will be a success. It’s more likely to provoke a much more fierce regional competition leading to greater regional instability.

First, the idea that the Taliban can be divided into good and bad categories might look appealing to outsiders desperate to make an exit but to regional powers such as India, Iran and Russia such an approach is anathema. Those elements of the Taliban who might be willing to strike a deal with the West just to see the Western forces leave the region will haunt the security of regional states like India and Iran long after the Western forces would have left, just as they had done in the past. The idea that the US could do business with the Taliban is not new. This was what led the Clinton administration to turn a blind eye to Taliban’s rise to power in Kabul and its medieval practices, all in the name of good old-fashioned realism. Though former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf committed Pakistan to support efforts to stabilise Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban and agreed to strengthen the Karzai administration, doubts never ceased as to Islamabad’s capacity and commitment to crackdown on terrorists and militants. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency has long supported the Taliban and has aided its resurgence. Kabul remains suspicious of Pakistan, on whom its security largely depends, and has sought to cultivate Tehran and New Delhi.

The rejuvenation of the Taliban bolsters Pakistan’s role as a frontline state in the war on terrorism, securing often lucrative assistance from the US. The ISI and Pakistani military elite also see Pakistan engaged in a proxy war for influence in Afghanistan. The Taliban may be a concern to both Kabul and Washington, but Islamabad is more willing to tolerate jihadist violence so long as it is focused on Afghanistan, Kashmir or other parts of India. While the US may have no vital interest in determining who actually governs in Afghanistan, so long as the Afghan territory is not being used to launch attacks on US soil, other regional states do.

Pakistan itself has struck numerous such deals with so-called moderate Islamists in the last few years, the most recent being the deal in Swat Valley. Rather than weakening the Taliban, the once idyllic tourist area is now a haven for Islamist hardliners who are wreaking havoc with impunity. A perception has already gained ground in the region that the West is losing the war and such negotiations will only reinforce the notion of the West negotiating from a position of weakness.

There is no "moderate" Taliban in as much as there is no "radical" Taliban. The goal of various factions is the same even though their strategies might differ on the surface. It is chimerical to assume that the US can negotiate its way out of the present mess by luring the "moderate" Taliban.

The other strand of the new US strategy of re-orienting Pakistan’s foreign policy is being undermined by the Obama administration’s lack of awareness of regional balance of power sensitivities. The idea in the Western capitals that India can somehow be persuaded to negotiate with Pakistan on Kashmir, allowing the Pakistan’s government to concentrate less on its feud with India and more on its turbulent western frontier sounds good only paper. India and Pakistan were close to a deal on Kashmir in 2007 not because of any outside pressure but because India was confident of the support of the friendlier Bush administration. Today, Obama administration’s clumsy handling of India so far has put India once again on the defensive and a defensive India is never going to give the US what it wants most.

It is, indeed, remarkable how quickly goodwill towards the US has disappeared in New Delhi. Small signals emanating from Washington are having a much bigger impact in the corridors of power in India than perhaps intended. It is instructive that the only context in which Mr Obama has talked of India yet is the need to sort Kashmir out so as to find a way out for the West’s troubles in Afghanistan. The talk of a strategic partnership between the two democracies has all but disappeared.

Secretary of state Hillary Clinton’s omission of India as part of her first trip to Asia; her assertion that US-China bilateral relationship is the most important one in the world; appointment of Jeff Bader, a China expert, as the new Senior Director of East Asia who will be looking at India; the US reluctance to make India a part of its larger strategy towards the region despite sharing a common interest in tackling terrorism and extremism from the turbulent territory between the Indus and the Hindu Kush — all this points to a dramatic re-calibration in the US approach towards India. India will have to formulate its own strategy vis-à-vis its neighbourhood devoid of any unrealistic expectations from Washington.

Washington, meanwhile, needs to recognise that a serious re-think is required of its "AfPak" strategy if it is to have any chance of succeeding. In its present incarnation, the strategy seems dead on arrival.

Harsh V. Pant teaches at King’s College London

There's A Spy In My Soup

INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES: RAW

The new RAW chief takes over at a time when morale is at an all-time low and 'recall' cases are rising by the day ...

Saikat Datta

http://www.outlookindia.com/full.asp?fodname=20090330&fname=Raw+(F)&sid=1

Foreign Locales, Phoren Attitudes

* Berlin: RAW officer asked to return due to poor quality of intelligence and differences with his Intelligence Bureau counterpart.
* Colombo: Ambassador wants officer out for breach of protocol and meeting senior Sri Lankan officials/leaders.
* Brussels: Officer recalled after allegations of financial bungling and misappropriation of funds. Inquiry pending.
* Beijing: RAW operative recalled for allegedly "mishandling" her junior and compromising security by using the office computer to surf the Net.

***
In February this year, K.C. Verma, a 1971 batch police officer from the Jharkhand cadre, took over as chief of India's external intelligence agency, Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), and with it inherited the problems that have plagued the organisation for years.

In the last year or so, RAW has seen some of the highest recall rates of its officers from foreign postings, causing much embarrassment. Now a few more Indian ambassadors/high commissioners have written to the government complaining about RAW officers posted at their embassies/high commissions and seeking their recall. Last year saw the return of P. Hanniman, a joint secretary-level officer, from Brussels after allegations of financial bunglings and siphoning of secret funds surfaced.

This year there are pending requests from the Indian ambassador to Germany, Meera Shankar, requesting that a RAW officer, K. Jha, be recalled. Similarly, the Indian high commissioner in Sri Lanka, Alok Prasad, has complained about P. Rao, a woman officer posted in Colombo. Prasad feels that Rao's meetings with senior Sri Lankan dignitaries were an embarrassment. A similar request has been received from the Indian ambassador to Afghanistan.

Last year saw the sudden return of two RAW officers from Sri Lanka and China. Ravi Nair came back home from Colombo under a cloud, while Uma Mishra, a director-level officer posted in Beijing, was recalled after allegations of an affair between her subordinate and a Chinese interpreter surfaced. Mishra was accused of mishandling the entire affair as well as compromising security with a senior visiting IB officer accusing her of using his computer to surf the Net.

For Verma, these are issues he'll have to resolve quickly. His appointment comes after a three-year hiatus for him: he spent it outside the Indian intelligence community for health reasons. In between, he had bypass surgery and had taken over as Narcotics Control Bureau chief where he worked with P. Chidambaram, then the finance minister.

The P. Hanniman case will now be top priority. Hanniman is currently posted in Delhi and the inquiry against him for siphoning off secret funds in Brussels has been completed. Strangely enough, Hanniman seems to have survived till now because the inquiry report was kept pending by Gurinder Singh, a special secretary with RAW who has been sent abroad now as special security advisor to the government of Mauritius. Singh sat on the inquiry file for almost a year before sending it back without taking any decision, days before he left for Mauritius. RAW officers allege that Singh did it to protect a fellow IPS officer.

Meanwhile, the Indian high commissioner to Lanka has demanded that the lady officer posted in Colombo be recalled immediately. According to several officers familiar with the case, the high commissioner took umbrage on protocol issues saying the lady officer was overstepping her brief by independently meeting senior Sri Lankan officials.

In Germany, differences between an IB and RAW officer have led to the latter facing the prospect of being sent home in the next few weeks.

A similar fate awaits the RAW officer in Kabul with the Indian ambassador there reportedly unhappy with his performance. Incidentally, this isn't the first time that India's RAW station in Germany has come under a cloud. Another IPS cadre officer was accused of forging the letterhead of the Pakistani ambassador to Germany a few years ago and passing fake letters/memos as intelligence gathered. When detected, he was immediately repatriated to his parent cadre state, Uttarakhand. He is currently facing a cbi inquiry in a corruption case.

What irks officers within RAW is the way these "requests" for withdrawal are treated by the government.

K.C. Verma is in a piquant situation— experienced officers are quitting and no new talent is coming in.


Last year, when Ravi Nair was pulled out of Colombo, there were allegations of him being associated with a "Chinese spy". However, a subsequent inquiry revealed that the charges were blatantly false. Instead, it came to light that Sri Lankan foreign minister Rohitha Bogollagama had orchestrated the whole episode.
Apparently, Nair was Bogollagama's tenant in Colombo and had refused to pay for expensive furniture that the minister had ordered for the house. This dispute became a full-blown crisis when Bogollagama's daughter's continuance in AIIMS, Delhi, was threatened due to her dismal academic performance. (RAW had organised her admission but couldn't ensure the medical degree.) As differences came out into the open, Nair was immediately recalled, only to be proved innocent of the charges later. A similar dispute between the RAW officer in Germany and his IB counterpart led to the present impasse. The Indian ambassador, unimpressed with the quality of reports the officer was generating, raised the issue with the MEA, leading to the officer's imminent recall.

For Verma, these are tricky issues since a similar episode last year led to the resignation of RAW's China expert, Jaidev Ranade. A career intelligence officer, he was literally hounded out by the earlier secretary, Ashok Chaturvedi, on grounds that Ranade had not sought permission for his wife's employment with the World Bank. Embarrassed by Ranade's resignation, the pmo stepped in and issued orders to promote him to the post of additional secretary even though his resignation had been accepted.

RAW has always been bogged down by experienced officers leaving, citing harassment and nepotism. Sandip Joshi, who had done extensive work to break up the Khalistan movement, quit two years ago, while Vijay Tewatia, a joint secretary, was forced to take voluntary retirement after his wife, a doctor, took up an assignment with the UN.

Simultaneously, RAW has failed to attract new talent. It has recruited only six officers in the last eight years and continues to depend on officers on deputation who leave soon after completing a lucrative foreign posting. This has led to a severe drought of expertise and has left the ras cadre, raised specially to man the agency in the 1970s, demoralised and languishing in ignominy.

(Some names have been changed to keep identities secret)