Obama's message from Kabul

US can’t afford to lose war in Af-Pak area
by K. Subrahmanyam



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PRESIDENT Obama spent 26 hours in the air to spend six hours on the ground in Kabul on March 28, 2010. He met only President Karzai and addressed the US troops at Bagram airforce base. As the Commander-in-Chief he wore a bomber jacket while addressing the troops.

A President does not do all this as a ritual. There must be a message in this act and what he said in Kabul. He undertook this journey after the strategic dialogue between the US and Pakistan, after President Karzai’s visits to China and Iran and after the Iranian President’s visit to Kabul.



His message came out loud and clear in his remarks at the end of the meeting with President Karzai. Obama said, “I want to send a strong message that the partnership between the United States and Afghanistan is going to continue…But we also want to continue to make progress on the civilian process of ensuring that agricultural production, energy production, good governance, rule of law, anti-corruption efforts — all these things end up resulting in a Afghanistan that is more prosperous, more secure, independent; is not subject to meddling by its neighbours; a transition will be able to occur so that more and more security efforts are made by the Afghans.



His reference to meddling by the neighbours is of particular significance. And there can be no doubt about its implication for Pakistan.The message is delivered three days after the US-Pakistani strategic dialogue in which General Kayani was reported to have highlighted the Pakistani interest in Afghanistan as its strategic depth.



Obama also made it clear that the development of Afghanistan will continue to be supported by the US. That will mean that India’s role in Afghanistan’s development is not likely to get diminished. Pakistani establishment who have been calculating on the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and consequent installation of a Pakistan-pasand regime there and diminishing and eliminating Indian role in that country may have to rethink their strategy.

Obama’s emphasis on long-term commitment of the US to Afghanistan is unmistakeable. He invited President Karzai to Washington in May and added, “and we intend to have a discussion about our long-term strategic interests between the two countries…all of us are interested in a day when Afghanistan is going to be able to provide for its own security but continue a long-term strategic partnership with the United States”.



People around the world, particularly in India who interpreted Obama’s speech of December 1 as notice by the US that it was going to cut and run when Obama stipulated that the US will start a draw-down of forces 18 months after the initiation of the surge of troops will have to reinterpret what the President meant. It did not occur to many people that he was setting a target date for his forces to finish the job successfully in the Af-Pak area.

That comes through clearly in his address to the troops at Bagram base. He told them, “We can’t forget why we’re here. We did not choose this war. We were attacked viciously on 9/11. Plots against our homeland, plots against our allies, plots against the Afghan and Pakistani people are taking place as we speak right here. And if this region slides backwards, if the Taliban retakes this country and al-Qaeda can operate with impunity, then more American lives will be at stake… And as long as I’m your Commander-in-Chief, I am not going to let that happen. That’s why you are here…

…“Our broad mission is clear: We are going to disrupt and dismantle, defeat and destroy al-Qaeda and its extremist allies. That is our mission. And to accomplish that goal, our objectives here in Afghanistan are also clear: We’re going to deny al-Qaeda safe haven. We’re going to reverse the Taliban’s momentum. We’re going to strengthen the capacity of Afghan security forces and the Afghan government so that they can begin taking responsibility and gain confidence of the Afghan people”.



He further added realistically, “But we know there are going to be some difficult days ahead. There’s going to be setbacks. We face a determined enemy. But we also know this: The United States of America does not quit once it starts on something. You don’t quit, the American armed services does not quit, we keep at it, we persevere, and together with our partners we will prevail. I am absolutely confident of that.”



He also had something to say about the kind of people the US is fighting which should give some thought to those who are talking about negotiating deals with the Taliban. He justified the war, as he did in his Nobel Prize address in terms of a Just War. He exhorted the US forces, “Make no mistake, this fight matters to us. It matters to us, it matters to our allies, it matters to the Afghan people. Al-Qaeda and the violent extremists who you’re fighting against want to destroy. But all of you want to build — and that is something essential about America. They’ve got no respect for human life. You see dignity in every human being. That’s part of what we value as Americans. They want to drive races and regions and religions apart. You want to bring people together and see the world move forward together. They offer fear, in other words, and you offer hope.”



Is this a speech of a person thinking of cutting and running in the next 15 months?



The Quadrennial Defence Review of the US Defence Department published early February says, “We now recognise that America’s ability to deal with threats for years to come will depend importantly on our success in the current conflicts”.



If this is read with Obama’s Kabul speech can he afford to lose the war in Af-Pak area and hope to win the 2012 elections? The Pakistani leadership appears to have made as disastrous a mistake as they made in 1965, 1971 and 1999 in concluding that the US will cut and run in 2011.



As Pakistan gets hooked on US aid and finds it difficult to do without it, the US will be able to persuade the Pakistani Army to fall in line with their strategy.



The Indian establishment should bear in mind the above interpretation of Obama strategy and not fall into the trap of assuming that the US will withdraw from Afghanistan in 2011 leaving the field open to the Pakistanis.