On June 12, 1990, the First Congress of the People's Deputies of the Russian Federation announced "The Declaration of State Sovereignty of the Russian Federative Socialist Republic". Quite a mouthful: in essence the intention was to bring about constitutional reform thus ushering in the 'new' state of Russia as a nation and ultimately a democracy. Two years later, during which time the Soviet Union imploded, the date was adopted as the national holiday, Russia Day. Today we celebrate the 20th anniversary of Russia Day. It makes one think!
One of the truly astonishing things in modern history, perhaps especially for someone of my generation (b 1945), is how amazingly short-lived the Soviet Union was: 1922-91. Having been on a number of occasions in the Soviet Union in the mid/late 1960s, it would have seemed absolutely inconceivable at the time that in fact the regime was living on borrowed time. Ultimately, not only was the collapse quite incredible, but so was the speed with which it happened.
The last two decades have been a roller-coaster ride for Russia. The Yeltsin years (1991-99) were certainly quite frantic, ending with the 1998 collapse of the Russian stock market, rouble and economy, relegating the country to virtual junk status. It was estimated then that the Russian GDP was smaller than Belgium's! When the G7 submitted to Putin's insistent demand to have Russia admitted into the club in 2002 hence becoming the G8 this was seen as a sop on the part of the initial G7 to "poor old Russia". During the Putin years (2000-08), Russia's economic and geopolitical star re-emerged; written off in 1998, within a short time it appeared that Russia as a global power was back. President Medvedev has had to contend with the catastrophic impact of the global economic crisis, as a result of which the Russian GDP in the space of one year contracted by 10.9 per cent, but his agenda does not deviate from Putin's.
So in the course of these very tumultuous two decades, some very pertinent questions remain, including whether Russia is a democracy, whether it is a market economy, whether it is West or East. What will the future hold?
A new categorisation arose with the invention of the term 'BRIC' by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill in 2001. In this paradigm, Russia is put in the company of the key 'emerging' nations, two of which (China and India) are Asian and one (Brazil) Latin American. This would seem to put Russia beyond Europe. Moscow occasionally seems to relish this association and there have been some not terribly convincing attempts at institutionalising the BRICs as a body engaged in global governance. Russia is also a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, also founded in 2001, which brings together the leaders of Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, intended to provide geopolitical weight or counterweight in a still western dominated planet.
As many have pointed out, however, Russia's appurtenance to these entities raises multiple anomalies. It does not really belong in the BRICs; it is not an emerging market, it is more of an old power undergoing pains of transition and decline. Whereas India, China and Brazil are all three prominent members of the WTO and active commercial players in multiple sectors across the planet, Russia is basically an oil and gas economy.
But perhaps the element that most distinguishes Russia and puts it in stark contrast with emerging economies is demographics. Russia has a very low birth rate and a much shorter life expectancy than both industrialised and emerging economies. Prospects are dim. With a population of 145 million in 2010, on the basis of current demographic trends and demographic trends are difficult to reverse the population by 2050 will have dwindled to an expected 108 million.
Demographics, as the philosopher Auguste Comte stated, is destiny: you cannot escape it. Russia is by far the world's biggest country with extremely long boundaries. How a dwindling and ageing population can continue to inhabit such a very vast territory, let alone govern and protect it, is a critical question.
Bearing all this in mind, it would, it seems, be in Russia's national interest to cement much closer ties with Europe; and this would also be in Europe's interest. Some indeed advocate that Russia should be made a member-state of the European Union. To that end, Europe and notably the European Union should be having a much more proactive policy of engaging with Russia.
Paradoxically, however, there is one other dimension in which Russia does stand out from most of the rest of Europe. Western Europe, but also increasingly Central and Eastern Europe have become secular, indeed one can say irreligious societies. Churches are empty and consequently they play far less of a role in European daily life than they did only half-a-century ago. In Russia, remarkably, after seven decades of enforced atheism, the Orthodox Church has enjoyed a truly remarkable renaissance. It is close to the centre of power as it also impacts the lives of ordinary Russians.
Understanding the 'Russian soul' is not an easy task. I would strongly recommend reading or re-reading among others, the collected works of Tolstoy. You may still not understand; but at least you will understand why you don't understand!
The writer is professor of international political economy at IMD, Lausanne, Switzerland.
One of the truly astonishing things in modern history, perhaps especially for someone of my generation (b 1945), is how amazingly short-lived the Soviet Union was: 1922-91. Having been on a number of occasions in the Soviet Union in the mid/late 1960s, it would have seemed absolutely inconceivable at the time that in fact the regime was living on borrowed time. Ultimately, not only was the collapse quite incredible, but so was the speed with which it happened.
The last two decades have been a roller-coaster ride for Russia. The Yeltsin years (1991-99) were certainly quite frantic, ending with the 1998 collapse of the Russian stock market, rouble and economy, relegating the country to virtual junk status. It was estimated then that the Russian GDP was smaller than Belgium's! When the G7 submitted to Putin's insistent demand to have Russia admitted into the club in 2002 hence becoming the G8 this was seen as a sop on the part of the initial G7 to "poor old Russia". During the Putin years (2000-08), Russia's economic and geopolitical star re-emerged; written off in 1998, within a short time it appeared that Russia as a global power was back. President Medvedev has had to contend with the catastrophic impact of the global economic crisis, as a result of which the Russian GDP in the space of one year contracted by 10.9 per cent, but his agenda does not deviate from Putin's.
So in the course of these very tumultuous two decades, some very pertinent questions remain, including whether Russia is a democracy, whether it is a market economy, whether it is West or East. What will the future hold?
A new categorisation arose with the invention of the term 'BRIC' by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill in 2001. In this paradigm, Russia is put in the company of the key 'emerging' nations, two of which (China and India) are Asian and one (Brazil) Latin American. This would seem to put Russia beyond Europe. Moscow occasionally seems to relish this association and there have been some not terribly convincing attempts at institutionalising the BRICs as a body engaged in global governance. Russia is also a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, also founded in 2001, which brings together the leaders of Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, intended to provide geopolitical weight or counterweight in a still western dominated planet.
As many have pointed out, however, Russia's appurtenance to these entities raises multiple anomalies. It does not really belong in the BRICs; it is not an emerging market, it is more of an old power undergoing pains of transition and decline. Whereas India, China and Brazil are all three prominent members of the WTO and active commercial players in multiple sectors across the planet, Russia is basically an oil and gas economy.
But perhaps the element that most distinguishes Russia and puts it in stark contrast with emerging economies is demographics. Russia has a very low birth rate and a much shorter life expectancy than both industrialised and emerging economies. Prospects are dim. With a population of 145 million in 2010, on the basis of current demographic trends and demographic trends are difficult to reverse the population by 2050 will have dwindled to an expected 108 million.
Demographics, as the philosopher Auguste Comte stated, is destiny: you cannot escape it. Russia is by far the world's biggest country with extremely long boundaries. How a dwindling and ageing population can continue to inhabit such a very vast territory, let alone govern and protect it, is a critical question.
Bearing all this in mind, it would, it seems, be in Russia's national interest to cement much closer ties with Europe; and this would also be in Europe's interest. Some indeed advocate that Russia should be made a member-state of the European Union. To that end, Europe and notably the European Union should be having a much more proactive policy of engaging with Russia.
Paradoxically, however, there is one other dimension in which Russia does stand out from most of the rest of Europe. Western Europe, but also increasingly Central and Eastern Europe have become secular, indeed one can say irreligious societies. Churches are empty and consequently they play far less of a role in European daily life than they did only half-a-century ago. In Russia, remarkably, after seven decades of enforced atheism, the Orthodox Church has enjoyed a truly remarkable renaissance. It is close to the centre of power as it also impacts the lives of ordinary Russians.
Understanding the 'Russian soul' is not an easy task. I would strongly recommend reading or re-reading among others, the collected works of Tolstoy. You may still not understand; but at least you will understand why you don't understand!
The writer is professor of international political economy at IMD, Lausanne, Switzerland.
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