Why Hafiz Saeed is raking up the Indo-Pak Water Issue?

By Divya Kumar Soti

Recent indications from Pakistan suggest some intriguing inferences about Hafiz Saeed’s political motives. In a rally organized by Jamat-ud-Dawa (JuD) last month in Lahore- which was attended by representatives of all major political parties- Hafiz Saeed alleged that India is diverting water from major rivers flowing into Pakistan and the Indian conspiracy is to turn Pakistan barren. Jamat ud Dawa activists attending the rally were sporting the posters with messages like ‘Water flows or blood’. Hafiz Saeed called for Jehad against India.

In the whole drama, two themes are notable. Hafiz Saeed has chosen an issue that is very sensitive politically in Pakistan and has for decades created tensions between Sindh and Punjab. Alleged biased distribution of water has led various movements in Sindh in past against what is termed as Punjabi oppression by political parties based in Sindh. So, propagating a conspiracy theory around Pakistan’s chronic water shortage solves various purposes. Hafiz Saeed has mastered the art of mobilizing people and money in the name of purposes which are apparently charitable. But such mobilization always ends up in expansion of Lashkar-e-Taiba’s network. Hafiz Saeed used the 2004 Tsunami to expand LeT’s network in ASEAN countries and forged deep linkages with groups like Jemah Islamia. Similarly, Saeed capitalized upon earthquakes in Afghanistan and Kashmir Valley.

Jamat-ud-Dawa’s charitable ventures used to be a cover for logistic activities of LeT. Now, after 26/11, that cover is not effective anymore. So, Hafiz Saeed is banking upon the water shortage which is something more sensitive than religious charity. Even the Pakistanis who condemn religious extremism will easily believe the theory that India is diverting water. Hafiz Saeed knows this very well and is ready to exploit this general distrust of India. The mobilization of general public around Hafiz Saeed- if it is to happen- will provide a shield against any governmental action by Pak Government against him in wake of any future international pressure.

The water issue has a lot of charge and major mainstream political parties of Pakistan are feeling the pull. Actually, what has happened since Saeed’s release from preventive detention is not only surprising but alarming. He has successfully established himself as the convener of water agitation and demonstrated his power in Rawalpindi through a procession. All major political parties are not only sharing stage with him under the JuD banner but also seems to be ready to work under his leadership for the purpose. Hafiz Saeed is projecting himself as a nationalist fighting for causes which are vital for existence of Pakistan and his detention as the result of much cherished so called ‘Hindu-Zionist-Christian conspiracy’ to fail Pakistan- an explanation which commands wide reception for every problem which Pakistan faces but is either unable to explain or unwilling to accept the existence of. Hafiz Saeed knows how to exploit this.

At this juncture it is beneficial to go into flashback and have a look at the events after 9/11. The terror groups based in Punjab and focusing on India got confused as well as outraged due to volt face staged by then Pak President Musharraf vis-à-vis Pakistan’s support to Taliban in Afghanistan. Then came the terror strike on the Indian Parliament on 13 Dec, 2001. Under immense international pressure Musharraf regime banned the outfits like LeT and JeM. Deeply aggrieved by this JeM joined hands with then emerging Pakistani Taliban and moved its operations to tribal areas and Swat valley. Its leader Maulana Masood Azhar went underground. Hafiz Saeed’s case is a contrasting one. When LeT was banned, Hafiz Saeed came up with a new organization named Markaz ul Dawa wal Irshad. As this organization began to come in security radar, Hafiz Saeed floated this outfit anew by the name of Jamat-ud-Dawa which was apparently purported to focus upon charitable and religious activities. Unlike many other militant commanders Hafiz Saeed continued to work under strict guidance of ISI and continued to focus upon Indian Targets. He never went underground. Instead he tried to reinvent himself as a public figure. He kept LeT away from Afghan struggle for the time being to avoid American attention. In the meantime LeT continued to build sleeper cells in various countries and has now displaced Al-Qaeda in sophistication and outreach.

Hafiz Saeed deftly evolved a ‘plausible deniability’ mechanism around him under which he gave up direct command of LeT and established himself as the head of JuD. As a result of this knack, unlike Masood Azhar and several other militant leaders, he roams freely in Pakistan and at the same time runs a vast trans-national terror network with deniability and immunity. Now, JuD is taking up the role of the political wing of Lashkar-e-Taiba and is meddling in mainstream politics and social sphere. The raking up of water isuue is yet another attempt by Hafiz Saeed to establish him as a political and public figure which is facilitated by the downfall of extremist parties like Mutahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) and decreasing appeal of Jamat-e-Islami.

(The author is an intelligence affairs analyst and may be reached at writing2divya@gmail.com)