February 22, 2012

Independent Balochistan will change Sino – US strategic equations in South Asia

Sub:- Representatives (Rohrabacher, Gohmert and King) resolution about Balochistan

Ref:- (i)- This time India will not commit blunder in Balochistan (of not providing armed forces to US lead UN resolution).

(ii)- Massive political uprising is imminent in Balochistan.

(iii)- India has become wiser after Afghanistan fiasco (caused mainly due to not providing armed forces to US lead UN resolution in Afghanistan).

(iv)- Present Iran / Israel crises will also shape India’s policy in favor of Baloch’s right to self determination.

(v)- ‘Baloch Spring’ unlike ‘Arab Spring’ will influence even Kashmir problem.

(vi)- Independent Balochistan will change Sino – US strategic equations in South Asia.

(vii)- Independent Kashmir will be acceptable to India in view of (A)- Independent Balochistan (B)- unavoidable FSDSAARC and (C)- relief from terrorism.

Dear Sir

Though Republicans neither have majority in Senate nor presence in White House but USA is in election mode and important defense matters (especially such pressing as USA’s committed withdrawal from Afghanistan by 2014) are normally bi-partisan in USA. Therefore the resolution for right to self determination for the Baloch people of Pakistan moved by Republican Representatives Dan Rohrabacher, Louie Gohmert and Steve King has huge chance of success (may not be in the form of resolution passed by Congress but certainly in the form of changing US foreign policy). Because it has tremendous potential of transforming the US perception of geo-politics of South Asia as given below:-

(1)- Apart from open advice by some US Congressmen & others to US government that Washington should help the Baloch to break away from Pakistan so that not only the forces of USA & Allies may have unrestricted approach to land-locked Afghanistan (through Balochistan) without depending for this access on increasingly troubling Pakistan but US may also operate through Balochistan near land border and marine border / exit routes of Iran (which presently is in the eye of the storm of USA & Allies). This demand is couched in historical justification and human rights issues that – “Baloch were independent people historically and now days Pakistan is grossly violating human rights in Balochistan, hence independent Balochistan”.

(2)- These influential Americans have gone even to the extent of saying that US military aid to Pakistan is being misused by its government for inflicting violence against and extra judicial killings of Balochs.

(3)- Moreover these Americans say that a new country Balochistan (bordering Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan) if brought into existence courtesy USA & Allies then it will certainly give better strategic presence and maneuvering space in future to USA & its Allies in this entire region of South & Central Asia.

(4)- One more factor will motivate USA & Allies to endeavor to facilitate independent Balochistan. This time India will not commit blunder (of not providing armed forces to US lead UN resolution) in Balochistan as it committed in Afghanistan post 9/11 UN resolution about ‘global war against terrorism’.

(5)- In view of committed withdrawal of US forces by 2014, India is worried that post 2014 Afghanistan may condone terrorism in India by Muslim fundamentalists (operating from Pakistan and even from Afghanistan). Therefore presently India is trying desperately to have effective presence (through civilian means) in Afghanistan before US forces leave Afghanistan in 2014.

(6)- But after recent talks by the governments of USA, Afghanistan and Iran with government of Pakistan about its chummy Taliban, the Indian establishment has become wiser and has realized that no amount of civilian maneuver in Afghanistan is an effective alternative to lost martial approach (which was available to India post 9/11). Moreover present Iran / Israel crises which is threatening India’s energy-security & peace is also constraining India to become more pro-active, ideologically committed, pragmatic and brave country.

(7)- This martial cooperation of India with USA & Allies in Balochistan under UN resolution will have tremendous effect on the future global strategy of USA & Allies. It will open the door of India’s military cooperation (on humanitarian grounds) in other theaters too under UN resolutions. Given India’s martial strength of 1.5 million strong professional armed forces - to what extent it will have profound repercussion for the emerging ‘global democratic order’ (especially after ‘Arab Spring’ and democratic uprising in NAME Countries) under the leadership of USA & Allies, is any body’s guess.

(8)- This collaboration of USA & Allies with India for independent Balochistan is bound to infuriate Pakistan and China for obvious reasons. But present global crises (including economical crises in Western countries - in US & EU Region etc) will not allow USA & Allies to relegate their vital interests on back burner.

(9)- No doubt a miniscule part of ill-informed people in India may think that - “[Independent Balochistan is bound to rake up Kashmir problem (which has already claimed , as per media reports, about one hundred thousand lives of Muslims for the cause of unified Kashmir) hence will encourage Kashmiris on both sides of LOC to demand at international forums at least Muslim majority Independent Kashmir (if not independent entire Jammu & Kashmir) but this further dismemberment of India, as per these ill-informed people, will not be accepted by Hindu majority India – which so far has not been reconciled even to the partition of its motherland in 1947]”.

(10)- India is more intelligent and pragmatic than what some people credit it with. India knows that whether some people like it or not but South Asia will ultimately usher into FSDSAARC (Federation of Secular Democratic SAARC Countries) where Kashmir can also be a member like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Balochistan, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Nepal, Maldives etc. Therefore even an independent Kashmir is not an anathema to India provided independent Balochistan (especially with the active support of USA & Allies and of India under UN resolution) comes into existence.

(11)- This FSDSAARC has extra attraction to India because it will solve the problem of terrorism too (engineered by Muslim fundamentalists mainly through Kashmir) in India which is causing so much strain in Indian polity that presently Chief Ministers of various States (comprising more than half of India’s population) are having a serious differences and quarrel with government of India on NCTC (National Counter Terrorism Centre).

(12)- In a nutshell the vital interests of USA & Allies and also of India converge on the realization of independent Balochistan.

(13)- This will be a blessing in disguise even for the civilian government / political leadership of Pakistan. With Kashmir problem solved the military of Pakistan will loose all its manufactured importance as it will not be in a position to raise India bogey. This will eventually make any military coup highly unlikely in Pakistan and will be a welcome development for the democracy in Pakistan.

(14)- Therefore it is only a matter of time before we see massive political uprising in Balochistan for independent Balochistan supported, aided and engineered by USA & Allies and also by India.

Yours truly

Hem Raj Jain

(Author of “Betrayal of Americanism”)

Mankato, MN – 56001, USA
Ph:- 612-202-4053
Presently at Bangaluru, India
Ph:- 07829074704, 09694496012

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