In his first foreign visit after being re-elected, President Barack Obama will be in Cambodia, Myanmar and Thailand from November 17 to 20, 2012. His visit to Cambodia is to attend the East Asia summit. The brief visits to Myanmar and Thailand will be bilateral.
2. He will be in Yangon (Rangoon) where Aung San SuuKyi lives for a few hours on November 19,2012. He will have talks with President TheinSein also at Yangon and not in the capital. He will be accompanied by Mrs. Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State, for whom this will be the second visit to Myanmar.
3. The proposed visit has been projected in warm terms both by the US and Myanmar.A spokesman for President TheinSein said on November 9: "His visit is warmly welcomed. It will strengthen the resolve of TheinSein to move forward with reforms.Obama's visit shows concrete support for the democratisation process of President U TheinSein, Daw Aung San SuuKyi, Members of Parliament and the Myanmar people.President TheinSein fully believes that the trip of President Obama will push the momentum of the process of democratic reform."
4. The proposed visit underlines the US confidence in the stability of the Government of President TheinSein and its belief that there is no opposition in the senior levels of the Myanmar Armed Forces to the policy of political and economic reforms and opening-up to the West undertaken by Mr.TheinSein and his c-operation with SuuKyi.
5.While there has been no comment so far from the Chinese Foreign Office, Qin Guangrong, Secretary of the Communist Party of China in Yunnan, who is presently attending the 18th Congress of the CPC in Beijing, said that China saw no threat to its interests from Mr.Obama's visit. He added: "We understand and support the wish of the Myanmar authorities wanting to open up and become part of the world."
6.Mr.Obama's proposed visit will be coming less than a month after a new spell of violence between the native Buddhists of the Rakhine (Arakan) State and the Rohingya Muslims, who are projected by the Myanmar authorities as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, not entitled to full citizenship rights.
7. The violence, which led to over 80 fatalities and added to the number of internally displaced persons living in camps, was triggered by the opposition of the Buddhists to a proposal to permit the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to open a permanent office in Yangon to monitor the human rights of the Rohingya Muslims and the distribution of humanitarian relief to the internally displaced refugees from both the communities living in camps in the Rakhine State.
8. While the violence has since subsided, a Commission appointed by the Government of President TheinSein to enquire into an earlier spell of deadly violence in June has not been able to make much progress in its enquiry due to non-cooperation from the Buddhists.
9. US officials dealing with the visit have maintained a discreet silence on the recent violence in the Rakhine State and sought to project the visit as meant to encourage the TheinSein Government to keep moving on the democratic path.However, there will be expectations from the Muslims of the ASEAN region, who nurse feelings of solidarity with the Rohingya Muslims, that Mr.Obama will exercise pressure on President TheinSein as well as Aung San SuuKyi to pay attention to the human rights of the Rohingya Muslims and grant them full citizenship rights.
10. The Buddhists are watching the visit with apprehension that President TheinSein and SuuKyi may soften their opposition to the grant of citizenship rights to the Rohingya Muslims under pressure from Mr.Obama. Any impression of a US pressure in this regard during Mr.Obama's visit could trigger off fresh violence in the Rakhine State weakening the ability of the TheinSein Government to restore law and order and to re-settle the displaced persons in their home villages.
11.Non-Governmental human rights organisations such as the Amnesty International have expressed their misgivings over the wisdom of Mr.Obama's decision to visit Myanmar at this delicate time. They are worried it could prove counter-productive.
12.In a report on the situation in the Rakhine State due for release on November 12, the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) has been quoted by the media as saying as follows:
"The flare-up in Rakhine State represents a deeply disturbing backward step from Myanmar's reforms.This is a time when political leaders must rise to the challenge of shaping public opinion rather than just following it. A failure to do so will be to the detriment of the country.There is a threat of rising identity politics in Myanmar as reforms give new found freedoms to interest groups.The situation needs decisive moral leadership... by both President TheinSein and Aung San SuuKyi to prevent it spreading and contribute towards long-term solutions." The ICG urged the Government to ensure camps for the displaced do not become a precursor to the "segregation" of Rakhine and Rohingya.
13. Mr.Obama's tricky visit is coming at a time when sections of the Rakhine Buddhists are demanding a policy of separate development for the Buddhists andRohingya Muslims, with separate educational institutions, hostels and buses for RohingyaMuslim students. ( 12-11-12)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: email@example.com Twitter @SORBONNE75)