August 10, 2019

India asks UN team on Kashmir to leave Delhi premises

Sanjeev Miglani

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India has asked a United Nations military observer group on Kashmir to vacate a government-provided bungalow in New Delhi, in a toughening stance against a mission that Indians have long opposed.

A Kashmiri man catches fish in the waters of Dal Lake on a cold winter morning in Srinagar January 4, 2013. REUTERS/Danish Ismail

New Delhi considers the whole of Kashmir as an integral part of the country and has bristled against external involvement in the region including the U.N. Military Observers Group on India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) that was set up in 1949 after their first war.

The Indian foreign ministry said on Tuesday the government had asked UNMOGIP to hand over the Delhi premises from where it was running a liaison office for more than four decades for free as part of efforts to rationalize the mission’s presence in India.

The small U.N. mission has its main offices in the Kashmir capital Srinagar on the Indian side and in the Pakistani capital Islamabad as part of a U.N. Security Council resolution to supervise the ceasefire in the divided region.

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New Delhi has argued that the U.N. had little role to play after India and Pakistan signed the Simla Pact in 1972 under which the two countries agreed to resolve all disputes including Kashmir bilaterally.

Pakistan, however, has frequently called for third-party involvement to settle the dispute in Kashmir.

“We have said that as far as we are concerned the UNMOGIP has outlived its relevance. This is a consistent stance that we have articulated on several occasions,” Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Syed Akbaruddin told reporters after the Indian Express reported the notice given to the U.N. group to leave the Delhi premises.

UNMOGIP said it had received the request in May when India was in the midst of an election that the right wing Bharatiya Janata Party led by Narendra Modi eventually won.

No reasons were given for vacating the office, Major Nicolas Diaz, in charge of the Delhi office, said. He said the observers group would continue to operate in line with the U.N. mandate and that it was looking at alternative accommodation.

The military authorities of Pakistan have continued to lodge complaints with UNMOGIP about ceasefire violations in Kashmir.

The military authorities of India have lodged no complaints since January 1972 and have restricted the activities of the U.N. observers on the Indian side of the Line of Control. They have, however, continued to provide accommodation, transport and other facilities to the observers.

Reporting by Sanjeev Miglani; Editing by Jeremy Laurence

Real Test of Op: 370 lies in convincing Kashmiris

August 10, 2019, 10:25 AM IST Economic Times in ET Commentary | Edit PageIndia | ET

 

By Prasad Nallapati

The BJP government has done it again! This time, it is Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Its `special status’, guaranteed under `temporary’ provision of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, has been revoked. It is no surprise as the Party has long madeits intentions crystal clear. The BJP held the promise that the repeal of the Article would bring all round economic development and check corruption and terrorism in the state, which is now divided into two Union Territories.

The move has popular support across the country as it is generally viewed that the provision has not brought any peace to the state and is only serving the interests of separatists and their masters in Pakistan.

Will these constitutional amendments stand the scrutiny of the Supreme Court? Probably, yes. The BJP appears to have done its homework and meticulously prepared the ground for eventual action.

Will it be acceptable to Kashmiris, who are the main stake holders? No. The state is currently under a complete shut-off mode with all communications cut, top leaders under house arrest and forces guarding streets. The valley is likely to erupt sooner than later notwithstanding the heavy deployment of forces.

How the international community reacts? The Kashmir issue has long been shoved aside from public memory except onoccasions of major military flareup across the border between India and Pakistan. The withdrawal of the special status is unlikely to press a panic button among the world community. Pakistan’s `over action’ will be on expected lines. The international mood, however, can change if mass violence leads to brutal suppression and heavy causalities.

The BJP may be condemned for the way it executed the revocation process. But, is there any other way that it could have done it better? The debate on the issue has been going on for past over five years since the party came into power in 2014. There were legal battles in anticipation of the move. Several peace attempts were made in the last 30 years at official as well as Track 2 level, but separatists and vested interests foiled all prospects. The latter found the existing conditions of fear and terror serve them better. The initiatives taken by the previous BJP government, under Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, are still considered in the Kashmir valley as the most genuine and sincere effort to resolve the conflict and bring peace.

Road-Map ahead
Having done away with this controversial `special status’, the onus is now on the Narendra Modi government to quickly present its road-map that would bring real peace, sense of dignity and economic development to the Kashmiris. This is what they promised to the Kashmiris. There is no excuse any more. The people of India are with the government. Prominent members of the opposition parties, including the Congress, have extended their support to the government defying their official party policies.

While we do not know yet if the Modi government has drawn up any detailed strategy, some of the contours of its thinking can be gleaned from its various actions. The state administration, under the Governor’s rule, has set in motion devolution of greateradministrative and financial powers to Panchayat Raj institutions (local bodies). Elections to the local bodies were held in October last year and the BJP made some inroads into the valley. These newly elected local leaders are being trained to take up new responsibilities of monitoring central programs. The Article 370 had earlier precluded any role for the central government in the administration of the state, except for foreign affairs, defense, communications and currency.

A business leaders’ summit is proposed to be held both in Srinagar and Jammu next month to draw up plans for setting up industries that benefit economic development and employment generation. Top industrialists from India and abroad are invited to participate to interact with local leaders and businessmen. Some of the areas that could attract outside investments include pharmaceuticals, food-processing, textiles, power projects, advanced technical training, and modern handlooms and handicrafts.

The BJP and the central government appear to be reaching out to the people of Jammu and Kashmir to explain the reasons for various actions taken and assure them that the current shut-down of the state and deployment of forces are a temporary measure and will be lifted gradually to ease movement of the people.

Prognosis
As the current restrictions are lifted, violent incidents are expected to spread all over the valley and parts of Jammu. Unless the police and other security forces act fast to restrict such incidents to local areas and prevent them spreading across the state, they will have a serious problem in hand. Heavy casualties could turn the tide against the government both at home and international level.

Although decentralization of financial powers and promotion of economic development are significant initiatives, they do notmean anything if there is no peace. There has been an increase in the number of educated and employed youth joining militancy in the valley in the past two years. Youth icon Burhan Wani and many others joined militancy not because they were unemployed or uneducated. There is a growing feeling of alienation and loss of dignity in the face of their near and dear being treated badly and killed by security forces on clumsy reasons.

If India likes to win the hearts of the people, it is only through restoration of their honour and dignity. The very sight of numerous check posts and gun-wielding security forces have become an eye-sore as they restrict movement of the people, who are looked upon as potential terrorists. It would be helpful if more innovative security measures are adopted in place of such massive visible deployment of forces. Extensive use of technical monitoring, deployment of plain-clothes security men and special forces who easily merge with local background may prove more effective in the longer run.

The Article 370 has remained more an emotive issue rather than any practical value to common people. Its revocation, therefore, is unlikely to bring any negative consequences in their normal affairs. However, vested interests, separatists and terror groups backed by Pakistan will do everything to flare up violence that begets further bouts of violence.

The key is in the Central government offering an attractive alternative plan that brings lasting peace, dignity to people and economic growth while keeping a check on anti-national forces. It is, however, easier said than done.

(Prasad Nallapati is the President of Hyderabad-based Centre for Asia-Africa Policy Research and former Additional Secretary to the Govt of India)

August 09, 2019

Towards a Framework for Post-Terrorist Incident Communications Strategies

Towards a Framework for Post-Terrorist Incident Communications Strategies

Alastair Reed and Haroro J Ingram
Other Publications, 9 August 2019

This paper synthesises research on post-incident communications from a range of fields – including terrorism, crisis communications, mass-shooter incidents, serial offenders, and suicide studies – to identify guidelines for the development of a post-terrorist incident communications framework.

 Download the Paper

Global Research Network on Terrorism and Technology Paper

Key Findings and Recommendations

Terrorism is fundamentally a type of violent communication designed to influence audiences broader than the direct recipients of that violence. Consequently, post-terrorist incident responses may significantly shape how a terrorist attack is perceived and its implications. Social media platforms, especially, play a significant role in the modern crisis-communication media ecology and the processes of public sense-making. This paper identifies the need for post-terrorist incident communications strategies, draws out pertinent lessons from a multidisciplinary literature analysis and outlines key considerations for the technology, government and media sectors when creating guidelines to respond to terrorist events.

This paper identifies six key lessons that should guide the development of a post-terrorist incident response framework: 

Post-incident responses need to be calibrated to ‘compete’ against malignant actors (such as terrorist propagandists) in an effort to shape meaning-generation processes in target audiences.Post-incident guidelines must harness the ecology of crisis communications of which social media is an important, but not the only, component. No medium of communication is inherently positive or negative. Instead, strategies need to be devised to harness its potential positive effects.Social media platforms can play a key role in assisting emergency services and, rather than shutting down after a terrorist attack, these mediums can be used to reassure, advise and inform.Social media platforms and media organisations will need to work collaboratively to ensure post-incident reporting frameworks are complementary.Social media companies will need to be prepared to remove terrorist content, especially that which is designed to trigger and amplify fear in target audiences, in a timely and appropriate manner.Social media platforms can play a significant role in post-incident responses in appreciating and assisting the importance of the online space for bringing communities together in the wake of a terrorist attack as a shared space for grieving and sense-making.

Alastair Reed is an Associate Fellow at the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) and an Associate Professor at Swansea University and TU Delft in the Netherlands,

Haroro J Ingram is an Associate Fellow at the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) and a Senior Research Fellow with the Program on Extremism at George Washington University.



https://rusi.org/publication/other-publications/towards-framework-post-terrorist-incident-communications-strategies

Rare earth producers ready to “weaponize” their supply

TRIVIUM CHINA

Rare earth producers ready to “weaponize” their supply

On Wednesday, China’s rare earth producers announced that they are ready to do their part in the trade war effort.

The details: The Association of China Rare Earth Industry released a statement declaring its support for Chinese countermeasures against the US – and said producers will pass the cost of any tariffs onto their American customers.

Some context: The Association represents some 300 firms involved in the rare earth production process.

More context: China produces roughly 80% of the world’s rare earth minerals, and the US is still heavily dependent on Chinese suppliers.

Even more context: President Xi paid a visit to a rare earth facility back in May during his Jiangxi tour, in a move that was widely interpreted as a warning to the US (see the May 21 Tip Sheet).

Get smart: Now that negotiations seem to be breaking down (again), China has circled back to the rare earth option in hopes of creating more leverage.

Get smarter: Any disruption to rare earth supplies would put a temporary squeeze on American businesses – but US producers have reportedly been looking to ramp up their own output, just in case.

So the move might ultimately backfire on Chinese producers.

The bottom line: Everyone loses in a trade war.
 

READ MORE
SCMP: China’s rare earth producers say they are ready to weaponise their supply stranglehold, pass any tariff as cost to US customers

These images show Pakistan is planning something sinister after India’s Article 370 move

The Print

These images show Pakistan is planning something sinister after India’s Article 370 move

India has to enforce rock-solid discipline in its security forces and micro-manage ground situation in Kashmir to avoid flare-ups.

ABHIJIT IYER-MITRAUpdated: 9 August, 2019 4:17 pm IST

Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa | File photo: Flickr

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One of my favourite arias is from Puccini’s Manon Lescaut where the protagonist sings a heart-rending “Sola Perduta Abbandonata” (I am lost and abandoned) before she dies waiting for her lover to rescue her while she is stranded in the middle of the American desert.

In many ways, this describes the situation Pakistan is stuck in – it has run out of its only oxygen, the supposed “internalisation” of the “Kashmeer Isshoo” as Musharraf used to call it, being used to divert attention to external follies. Perhaps, a bit like Manon, Pakistan needs great Coloratura to draw the world’s attention.

Also read: What Modi didn’t say but meant – govt’s take-over would end Islamisation of Kashmir

Signs are worrying

The playbook has been that every time Kashmir was disappearing from the horizon, Pakistan would resort to some outrageous action in order to refocus the international community. Today, thanks to satellite-based open-source intelligence (OSINT), we can predict that a similar operation is quite possibly underway, in order to relieve the domestic political humiliation that the Pakistani army and its ‘selected’ prime minister are facing. Below are a set of three images showing that almost the entire Pakistani fleet has been put out to sea, from the three major naval ports of Karachi, Ormara and Gwadar.

All images courtesy @detresfa_ used with his/her permission

The main image above shows that the Jinnah naval base at Ormara is now totally empty. The inset on the right shows Gwadar, again totally empty, while the inset on the left shows the naval docks in Karachi with just three ships. Now contrast these with the reference peacetime images below of the same three bases, showing large number of military ships (easily identified because of the grey camouflage) in base from last month.

All images courtesy @detresfa_ used with his/her permission

By itself, this would be worrying, but we have also detected that the C-130 transport aircraft station, closest to the Line of Control, at PAF base Nur Khan in Chaklala, Rawalpindi, has also been emptied out, suggesting a sudden and significant uptick in military transport requirements. The image on the left was taken on the evening of 4 August in response to reports on online messaging groups that there was some panic reaction over what’s likely to happen in Kashmir. The image on the right shows the normal peacetime deployment.

All images courtesy @detresfa_ used with his/her permission

The image below is the latest from the airbase, acquired just this (Friday) morning, and the numbers are nowhere near normal, with just two C-130s in clear operational readiness mode.

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All images courtesy @detresfa_ used with his/her permission

Add to this, we have a sudden increase in the number of VIP flights to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) since 5 August  (four flights in two days). The image below is of a VVIP Gulfstream IV, indicating that this could have possibly flown Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa himself (I was unable to decipher the call sign RED2).

All images courtesy @detresfa_ used with his/her permission

Since Thursday, again acting on the tip-offs from online messaging groups, OSINT surveillance has further revealed significant air activity. The image below, taken Thursday night and the GIF earlier Friday morning, indicate a massive and intensified defensive air cover patrol. We know this because of the Pakistani AWACS flying in a classic pattern accompanied by an aerial refueller at a distance. This would clearly be in support of 5-7 PAF fighter aircraft (which do not turn on their transponders). There is also a significant movement of VIP aircraft monitoring or supervising these movements, as seen in the animation.

All images courtesy @detresfa_ used with his/her permissionAll images courtesy @detresfa_ used with his/her permission

Also read: Pakistan doesn’t have any bargaining chip to change Modi govt’s mind on Article 370

Call for action on the streets

However, I was able to correlate this information with several online messenger groups (the same ones that had tipped me off about the activity in Chaklala on 4 August) associated with militants and their sympathisers, known to be run by the Pakistan military. Till the night of 5 August, the messages had been mostly acrimonious, slamming Pakistan for sleeping on the job. Sometime around the morning of 6 August, these messages changed from shock to yet-unseen desperation for “action on the streets” with promises of Pakistani support. The strangest one was “you need to go out on the streets and JUST DIE (my emphasis), we cannot help you unless we have some just cause”.

By itself, these satellite images and online messages would mean nothing, but put together, I believe they conform to a classic and old Pakistani plan, which can be summarised as follows.

No matter the movement of military material into Kashmir, the fact is that a major infiltration a la Kargil or 1965 or 1947 is not feasible. Yet, the matter is time-sensitive, and if Pakistan takes long to draw a plan for massive infiltration, the international acceptance for the abrogation of Article 370 would be deemed legal, due to the lack of a legal or political challenge.

Pakistan is therefore desperate, asking its local agent provocateurs in Kashmir to foment street trouble. For instance, one message said, “just go out in the streets and die”. This would play into the expressed concerns of the UN and international community, which revolve around human rights.

Such a large-scale death of protesters would also give Pakistan grounds for a major military escalation under the guise of humanitarian intervention or the responsibility to protect. Given the imminent lifting of restrictions and the celebration of Eid on 12 August, such messages should be taken very seriously.

Known Twitter handles on the Pakistani payroll: Zaid Zaman Hamid and others have already been putting out (false) stories of a mass uprising and claiming massive fatalities of 250 and upwards. Given that none of these handles has any credibility and that we have media correspondents on the ground, we know that this is complete rubbish.

Also read: Kashmir Banega Pakistan: A dream sold to brainwash us since childhood now lies in tatters

India must exercise caution

The main intent of this article is to ensure that India is not lulled into complacency.

To be clear, it is also not to suggest that Pakistan will go to war over the deaths, if they happen. Pakistan is in no position to do this, not so quickly at any rate, and not given the economic situation it is in.

What we will, however, see is a major ground and naval build-up in response to security forces’ apparent overreaction in the Kashmir valley. The intent of this will be to THREATEN war and get the international community involved. Optimally, from the Pakistani point of view, this will lead to demands for the withdrawal of the abrogation of Article 370. Minimally, it would give Pakistanis a chance to say, Article 370 or not, we internationalised the issue and created a new paradigm.

Clearly then, India has to exercise significant caution. It has two options. It can continue the curfew in the Valley for a month till such time as the abrogation of Article 370 is seen as fait accompli. Alternately, it can enforce rock-solid discipline in the security forces and micro-manage the ground situation very carefully to avoid flare-ups. One can only hope that this was factored into the Indian grand strategy.

The author is a senior fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies. He tweets @iyervval. Views are personal.

‘Taliban Clear-Headed on No Link Between India’s Kashmir Action and Afghan Situation’


Amitabh P. Revi New Delhi 9 August 2019

The Afghan Taliban is clearly giving India an opening to engage. Spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid in a statement says: “Linking the issue of Kashmir with that of Afghanistan by some parties will not aid in improving the crisis at hand because the issue of Afghanistan is not related. Nor should Afghanistan be turned into a theatre of competition between other countries.” India’s former Ambassador to Kabul and current National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) member Amar Sinha takes note telling SNI, “The Taliban are clear headed in unambiguously stating there is no linkage between our internal actions in Kashmir and the Afghan situation and have appealed to ‘some parties’ to refrain from doing so. Everyone knows that there is only one party hawking this warped logic.”

Shakti Sinha, Director of the Nehru Memorial Museum and Library who served as head of the UN governance and development team in Afghanistan concurs, telling SNI, “It substantiates what I said on the Taliban not liking Pakistan’s position”.

 

Shakti Sinha, Director Nehru Memorial Museum and Library. Photo/SNI

Afghanistan’s Ex-President Hamid Karzai has also taken issue with Pakistan, saying, “Comments in Pakistan linking peace in Afghanistan to their objectives in Kashmir are indicative of Pakistan viewing Afghanistan as strategic depth. I call on Pakistan’s government to stop using extremist violence as an instrument of policy in the region. We hope the new measures by the Government of India will lead to the betterment and prosperity of the people in Jammu and Kashmir as citizens of India.”

 

Hamid Karzai meets India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan Vinay Kumar

The Taliban’s J&K statement also “calls on both involved parties, the OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation), the UN and other influential institutions to play a constructive role in preventing insecurity in Kashmir. It is clear, Ambassador Sinha feels, “that the Taliban take their role as a government seriously even though a bit prematurely.” He adds, “India will be happy at a peaceful reintegration of the Taliban as decided in an intra-Afghan dialogue.”

 

Ex-Ambassador to Afghanistan Gautam Mukhopadhaya. Photo/SNI

On the Taliban statement, another Indian ex-ambassador to Afghanistan Gautam Mukhopadhaya tells SNI, ” India would probably appreciate the spirit of the Taliban statement delinking the Kashmir issue with peace in Afghanistan, but not its internationalization. This would seem to be a good starting point to join in good faith negotiations with the government and political  forces of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. And to join Afghan political life free from Pakistani tutelage and rebuild a united, independent, peaceful Afghanistan free from violence and terrorism. ”

 

U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar

With the eighth round of talks between the U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad and the Taliban continuing in Doha, Qatar, the ex-Indian envoy says, “India should be ready to facilitate intra-Afghan talks and unity as an honest broker and as an important neighbour that has tremendous goodwill for Afghanistan and all its citizens. I believe our credibility is high across the board.”

 

Amar Sinha, NSAB Member & former Indian envoy to Afghanistan. Photo/SNI

With violent attacks continuing to claim lives and the Taliban warning of more on campaign rallies for the scheduled September 28 Presidential polls, Ambassador Sinha says, “While I am willing to accept the Taliban’s brotherly advice on not escalating matters and reducing tension (with Pakistan), I appeal to them to do the same in Afghanistan. This month has seen some of most vicious attacks that have led to a record number of civilians killed. The last count is 1500. The Taliban, in their last intra-Afghan meeting, declared their intention to reduce violence. We have seen no such sign on the ground. This one step will raise their credibility both internally and internationally.”

https://sniwire.com/neighbours/taliban-clear-headed-on-no-link-between-indias-kashmir-action-and-afghan-situation/

Lives of luxury of so called Custodians of Kashmir

*Former CM Farooq Abdulla*
Occupied two Govt. Bungalows on Gupkar road  tastefully renovated with more than 20 crores has gym and sauna.
Lives in his house claims rent entitled to as former CM and enjoys privileges of full contingent of staff whose salaries come from the Govt exchequer.

*Former CM Omar Abdulla*
Still retains official residence even though he is not CM. Spent several crores of Govt money for renovation.

*Former CM Mehbooba Mufti*
Lives in Govt bungalow since 2005. Spent more than 20 crores on renovation. Renovated her father's house at Nowgam with at the cost of public exchequer.

*Former CM Ghulam Mohammed Sadiq's* grandson Iftikhar Sadiq sold a portion of Govt owned property he occupies in Garibal.

*Ghulam Mohammed Shah* brother in law of Farooq Abdulla & CM 1984- 1986, enacted law to provide a former CM the perks of a *personal assistant, a special assistant, two peons and a bullet proof vehicle*

At least 8 Hurriyat Conference leaders have been provided security cover including *Shed Geelani, Mirwaiz Kumar Farooq, Bilal Lone, Molvi Abbas Ansari, AB Gabi Bhat* etc. More than 1000 crores has been spent on providing security cover to hundreds of political activists. Several crores if tax payers money has been spent to pay their foreign tours, study if their children abroad, medical treatment, hotels expenses etc.

Even after enjoying the *hospitality of Govt of India* they remain *anti India, pro-Pakisthan, separatists.*

Should Govt feed these worst *parasites?*

*Send this message to your friends in order to educate the public about the scale of financial mismanagement of tax payers money.*

August 08, 2019

Pakistan Struggles to Make Good on a Golden Opportunity in Balochistan

Aug 8, 2019 | 09:00 GMT

6 mins read

Pakistan Struggles to Make Good on a Golden Opportunity in Balochistan

Highlights

Until Pakistan and the Tethyan Copper Co. settle their dispute, development of the country's Reko Diq gold and copper mine will languish, leaving a potentially abundant revenue stream dry.

Growing foreign investment in the sector will heighten the need for an effective dispute resolution mechanism.Unless Pakistan implements the necessary reforms to attract foreign investment, the country's mining sector will not grow beyond its current 3 percent contribution to Pakistan's gross domestic product.

In a remote and arid corner of southwestern Pakistan, Islamabad has found itself embroiled in a difficult battle: a multibillion-dollar dispute with a global mining company over one of the world's richest untapped deposits of copper and gold. In July, the World Bank's International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) ordered Pakistan to pay $5.9 billion in damages to the Tethyan Copper Co., a joint venture between Canada's Barrick Gold Corp. and Chile's Antofagasta PLC. The ruling stems from a 2012 case that Tethyan lodged at the ICSID against Islamabad for failing to issue a license to mine gold and copper at the Reko Diq site.

The case draws attention to the rich resources of Balochistan, Pakistan's rugged southwestern frontier in which Reko Diq is located, as well as the tug of war between domestic Pakistani law and international arbitration in resolving investor disputes. But above all, the Reko Diq affair shines a light on Pakistan's numerous underground resources and its broader failure to exploit them — something that will continue to haunt the country if it is to fulfill Prime Minister Imran Khan's goal of rapidly ramping up foreign investment.

The Big Picture

Pakistan's Balochistan province plays a vital role in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor because of its location on the Arabian Sea. It's also known for its resource riches that include an abundance of gold and copper deposits. But a longstanding dispute between the government and a mining company point to the need for reforms, without which mining's contribution to Pakistan's economy won't exceed 3 percent.

See Pakistan: A Military With a Country

A Strategically Significant Frontier 

Pakistan possesses large deposits of gold, copper, chromite, bauxite, iron ore, rubies, emeralds, topaz, mineral salt and coal, many of which are — like Reko Diq — located in Balochistan, Pakistan's largest province. Accounting for nearly 40 percent of the country's landmass, Balochistan's 347,000-square-kilometer area (134,000 square miles) makes it equal in size to Germany. Its strategically located coastline faces vital shipping lanes in the Arabian Sea, including traffic destined for the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, Balochistan is the site of a variety of projects as part of the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which aims to create a direct overland route linking western China and the Arabian Sea through Balochistan's port of Gwadar. At the same time, however, Balochistan is also home to an insurgent movement that seeks independence from Pakistan on cultural and economic grounds; indeed, Chinese investment in Balochistan has exacerbated long-standing separatist grievances of foreign exploitation in the province. 

The mine itself is located in Chagai, Pakistan's largest and westernmost district. According to Tethyan, Reko Diq contains 2.2 billion metric tons of mineable ore that could yield 200,000 metric tons of copper and 250,000 troy ounces of gold annually for over half a century. To extract the precious metals, the company must shovel, crush and grind the ore into a fine powder before converting it into a slurry concentrate for transport through a 682-kilometer underground pipeline to Gwadar. At the port, the company plans to dry the concentrate before loading it onto ships for smelting abroad.

Pakistan Misses a Golden Opportunity 

But for all of its lucrative potential — $353 million annually at current gold and copper rates — the development of Reko Diq has stagnated because of the long-running legal battle that culminated in last month's $5.9 billion fine. A key element of the dispute centers on the validity of a decades-old pact called the Chagai Hills Exploration Joint Venture Agreement (CHEJVA). Signed in 1993 between the Balochistan Development Authority and BHP, the Australian firm that initially offered its capital and technical expertise to explore Reko Diq, CHEJVA later became the subject of a case at the Balochistan High Court. There, the petitioner argued that the agreement granted unfair advantages to BHP in the form of bigger blocks with more time for exploration than permitted under the law governing mining in the province. The Balochistan High Court ruled against the plea in 2006, declaring that the CHEJVA was valid.

In the meantime, Balochistan's provincial government begged to differ with the local high court. First, the government terminated the exploration agreement in 2009 and then, two years later, it refused to grant a mining license to BHP's successor, Tethyan. But because the company had already invested $220 million for exploration, it lodged cases at the ICSID and the International Chamber of Commerce in 2012, invoking international arbitration by circumventing the Supreme Court of Pakistan, which claimed that it — and not the ICSID — had jurisdiction over the case. Ultimately, the Supreme Court of Pakistan overturned the Balochistan High Court's verdict on appeal in 2013, ruling that the CHEJVA had been void from the beginning because of its violations of Pakistani law. Accordingly, the Supreme Court also ruled that Tethyan had no investor rights, including that of international arbitration, under the bilateral investment treaty between Pakistan and Australia (where Tethyan is incorporated). The ICSID, however, claimed jurisdiction in the case, ruling in favor of Tethyan in March 2017 before finally announcing last month the total fine, which includes a $4 billion penalty and $1.9 billion in interest charges.

Turning Promise Into Reality

The future of the mine will depend on how Tethyan and Pakistan choose to proceed. The mining company has offered to discuss a negotiated settlement with Islamabad — a gesture the government has welcomed — but it remains unclear whether the company will subsequently maintain its involvement in Reko Diq. Other mining companies from China and Saudi Arabia have expressed interest in the project, while the country's politically powerful military has noted it could help manage the project through its construction firm, the Frontier Works Organization.

The case of Reko Diq points to the fundamental problem in Pakistan's mining sector: the potential offered by the country's abundance of resources and the reality of its inability to efficiently exploit these minerals.

More broadly, the case of Reko Diq points to the fundamental problem in Pakistan's mining sector: the potential offered by the country's abundance of resources and the reality of its inability to efficiently exploit these minerals. If Pakistan wants to successfully exploit its mineral resources, it must attract overseas firms. But as the case of Reko Diq demonstrates, foreign investment requires effective investor dispute mechanisms — to say nothing of roads and other infrastructure to transport the resources from their often remote locations.

Khan, whose top domestic challenge is tackling the structural constraints that are hindering the economy, has ordered the formation of a committee to investigate the Reko Diq debacle and learn lessons for the future. What's more, the Planning Ministry has listed seven reform areas for mining pertaining to regulation, resource mapping, infrastructure, upgrading technology, access to finance and skills development. Pakistan's best-laid plans notwithstanding, the disagreement with Tethyan proves that developments taking place above ground will always affect the riches that lie in the earth below. And unless Islamabad can find a way to finally remove the obstacles to business, the Reko Diq affair appears to be one that it is likely to repeat.

Copyright ©2019 Stratfor Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved.



https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/pakistan-struggles-make-good-golden-opportunity-balochistan-tethyan-mining

August 07, 2019

Nehruian Blunders in #Kashmir

1. In his telegram to the Prime Minister of Pakistan, the Indian Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru said, “I should like to make it clear that the question of aiding Kashmir in this emergency is not designed in any way to influence the state to accede to India.  Our view which we have repeatedly made public is that the question of accession in any disputed territory or state must be decided in accordance with wishes of people and we adhere to this view” (Telegram 402 Primin-2227 dated 27 October 1947 to PM of Pakistan repeating telegram addressed to PM of UK).

2. In other telegram to the PM of Pakistan, Pandit Nehru said, “Kashmir’s accession to India was accepted by us at the request of the Maharaja’s government and the most numerously representative popular organization in the state which is predominantly Muslim.  Even then it was accepted on condition that as soon as law and order had been restored, the people of Kashmir would decide the question of accession.  It is open to them to accede to either Dominion then” (Telegram No. 255, dated 31 October 1947).

3. In his broadcast to the nation over All India Radio on 2 November 1947, Pandit Nehru said, “We are anxious not to finalise anything in a moment of crisis and without the fullest opportunity to be given to the people of Kashmir to have their say.  It is for them ultimately to decide. . . .  And let me make it clear that it has been our policy that where there is a dispute about the accession of a state to either Dominion, the accession must be made by the people of that state.  It is in accordance with this policy that we have added a proviso to the Instrument of Accession of Kashmir”.

4. In another broadcast to the nation on 3 November 1947, Pandit Nehru said, “We have declared that the fate of Kashmir is ultimately to be decided by the people.  That pledge we have given not only to the people of Kashmir and to the world.  We will not and cannot back out of it”.

5. In his letter No. 368 Primin dated 21 November 1947 addressed to the PM of Pakistan, Pandit Nehru said, “I have repeatedly stated that as soon as peace and order have been established, Kashmir should decide of accession by Plebiscite or referendum under international auspices such as those of United Nations”.

6. In his statement in the Indian Constituent Assembly on 25 November 1947, Pandit Nehru said, “In order to establish our bonafide, we have suggested that when the people are given the chance to decide their future, this should be done under the supervision of an impartial tribunal such as the United Nations Organisation.  The issue in Kashmir is whether violence and naked force should decide the future or the will of the people”.

7. In his statement in the Indian Constituent Assembly on 5 March 1948, Pandit Nehru said, “Even at the moment of accession, we went out of our way to make a unilateral declaration that we would abide by the will of the people of Kashmir as declared in a plebiscite or referendum.  We insisted further that the Government of Kashmir must immediately become a popular government.  We have adhered to that position throughout and we are prepared to have a Plebiscite with every protection of fair voting and to abide by the decision of the people of Kashmir”.

8. In his press conference in London on 16 January 1951, as reported by the daily Statesman on 18 January 1951, Pandit Nehru stated, “India has repeatedly offered to work with the United Nations reasonable safeguards to enable the people of Kashmir to express their will and is always ready to do so.  We have always right from the beginning accepted the idea of the Kashmir people deciding their fate by referendum or plebiscite.  In fact, this was our proposal long before the United Nations came into the picture.  Ultimately the final decision of the settlement, which must come, has first of all to be made basically by the people of Kashmir and secondly, as between Pakistan and India directly.  Of course it must be remembered that we (India and Pakistan) have reached a great deal of agreement already.  What I mean is that many basic features have been thrashed out.  We all agreed that it is the people of Kashmir who must decide for themselves about their future externally or internally.  It is an obvious fact that even without our agreement no country is going to hold on to Kashmir against the will of the Kashmiris”.

9. In his report to All Indian Congress Committee on 6 July 1951 as published in the Statesman, New Delhi on 9 July 1951, Pandit Nehru said, “Kashmir has been wrongly looked upon as a prize for India or Pakistan.  People seem to forget that Kashmir is not a commodity for sale or to be bartered.  It has an individual existence and its people must be the final arbiters of their future.  It is here today that a struggle is bearing fruit, not in the battlefield but in the minds of men”.

10. In a letter dated 11 September 1951, to the U.N. representative, Pandit Nehru wrote, “The Government of India not only reaffirms its acceptance of the principle that the question of the continuing accession of the state of Jammu and Kashmir to India shall be decided through the democratic method of a free and impartial plebiscite under the auspices of the United Nations but is anxious that the conditions necessary for such a plebiscite should be created as quickly as possible”.

11. As reported by Amrita Bazar Patrika Calcutta, on 2 January 1952, while replying to Dr. Mookerji’s question in the Indian Legislature as to what the Congress Government was going to do about one third of territory still held by Pakistan, Pandit Nehru said, it “is not the property of either India or Pakistan.  It belongs to the Kashmiri people.  When Kashmir acceded to India, we made it clear to the leaders of the Kashmiri people that we would ultimately abide by the verdict of their Plebiscite.  If they tell us to walk out, I would have no hesitation in quitting.  We have taken the issue to United Nations and given our word of honour for a peaceful solution.  As a great nation we cannot go back on it.  We have left the question for final solution to the people of Kashmir and we are determined to abide by their decision”.

12. In his statement in the Indian Parliament on 7 August 1952, Pandit Nehru said, “Let me say clearly that we accept the basic proposition that the future of Kashmir is going to be decided finally by the goodwill and pleasure of her people.  The goodwill and pleasure of this Parliament is of no importance in this matter, not because this Parliament does not have the strength to decide the question of Kashmir but because any kind of imposition would be against the principles that this Parliament holds.  Kashmir is very close to our minds and hearts and if by some decree or adverse fortune, ceases to be a part of India, it will be a wrench and a pain and torment for us.  If, however, the people of Kashmir do not wish to remain with us, let them go by all means.  We will not keep them against their will, however painful it may be to us.  I want to stress that it is only the people of Kashmir who can decide the future of Kashmir.  It is not that we have merely said that to the United Nations and to the people of Kashmir, it is our conviction and one that is borne out by the policy that we have pursued, not only in Kashmir but everywhere.  Though these five years have meant a lot of trouble and expense and in spite of all we have done, we would willingly leave if it was made clear to us that the people of Kashmir wanted us to go.  However sad we may feel about leaving we are not going to stay against the wishes of the people.  We are not going to impose ourselves on them on the point of the bayonet”.

13. In his statement in the Lok Sabha on 31 March 1955, as published in Hindustan Times New Delhi on 1 April 1955, Pandit Nehru said, ” Kashmir is perhaps the most difficult of all these problems between India and Pakistan.  We should also remember that Kashmir is not a thing to be bandied between India and Pakistan but it has a soul of its own and an individuality of its own.  Nothing can be done without the goodwill and consent of the people of Kashmir”.

14. In his statement in the Security Council while taking part in debate on Kashmir in the 765th meeting of the Security Council on 24 January 1957, the Indian representative Mr. Krishna Menon said, “So far as we are concerned, there is not one word in the statements that I have made in this council which can be interpreted to mean that we will not honour international obligations.  I want to say for the purpose of the record that there is nothing that has been said on behalf of the Government of India which in the slightest degree indicates that the Government of India or the Union of India will dishonour any international obligations it has undertaken”.

Nehruian Blunders in #Kashmir

1. In his telegram to the Prime Minister of Pakistan, the Indian Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru said, “I should like to make it clear that the question of aiding Kashmir in this emergency is not designed in any way to influence the state to accede to India.  Our view which we have repeatedly made public is that the question of accession in any disputed territory or state must be decided in accordance with wishes of people and we adhere to this view” (Telegram 402 Primin-2227 dated 27 October 1947 to PM of Pakistan repeating telegram addressed to PM of UK).

2. In other telegram to the PM of Pakistan, Pandit Nehru said, “Kashmir’s accession to India was accepted by us at the request of the Maharaja’s government and the most numerously representative popular organization in the state which is predominantly Muslim.  Even then it was accepted on condition that as soon as law and order had been restored, the people of Kashmir would decide the question of accession.  It is open to them to accede to either Dominion then” (Telegram No. 255, dated 31 October 1947).

3. In his broadcast to the nation over All India Radio on 2 November 1947, Pandit Nehru said, “We are anxious not to finalise anything in a moment of crisis and without the fullest opportunity to be given to the people of Kashmir to have their say.  It is for them ultimately to decide. . . .  And let me make it clear that it has been our policy that where there is a dispute about the accession of a state to either Dominion, the accession must be made by the people of that state.  It is in accordance with this policy that we have added a proviso to the Instrument of Accession of Kashmir”.

4. In another broadcast to the nation on 3 November 1947, Pandit Nehru said, “We have declared that the fate of Kashmir is ultimately to be decided by the people.  That pledge we have given not only to the people of Kashmir and to the world.  We will not and cannot back out of it”.

5. In his letter No. 368 Primin dated 21 November 1947 addressed to the PM of Pakistan, Pandit Nehru said, “I have repeatedly stated that as soon as peace and order have been established, Kashmir should decide of accession by Plebiscite or referendum under international auspices such as those of United Nations”.

6. In his statement in the Indian Constituent Assembly on 25 November 1947, Pandit Nehru said, “In order to establish our bonafide, we have suggested that when the people are given the chance to decide their future, this should be done under the supervision of an impartial tribunal such as the United Nations Organisation.  The issue in Kashmir is whether violence and naked force should decide the future or the will of the people”.

7. In his statement in the Indian Constituent Assembly on 5 March 1948, Pandit Nehru said, “Even at the moment of accession, we went out of our way to make a unilateral declaration that we would abide by the will of the people of Kashmir as declared in a plebiscite or referendum.  We insisted further that the Government of Kashmir must immediately become a popular government.  We have adhered to that position throughout and we are prepared to have a Plebiscite with every protection of fair voting and to abide by the decision of the people of Kashmir”.

8. In his press conference in London on 16 January 1951, as reported by the daily Statesman on 18 January 1951, Pandit Nehru stated, “India has repeatedly offered to work with the United Nations reasonable safeguards to enable the people of Kashmir to express their will and is always ready to do so.  We have always right from the beginning accepted the idea of the Kashmir people deciding their fate by referendum or plebiscite.  In fact, this was our proposal long before the United Nations came into the picture.  Ultimately the final decision of the settlement, which must come, has first of all to be made basically by the people of Kashmir and secondly, as between Pakistan and India directly.  Of course it must be remembered that we (India and Pakistan) have reached a great deal of agreement already.  What I mean is that many basic features have been thrashed out.  We all agreed that it is the people of Kashmir who must decide for themselves about their future externally or internally.  It is an obvious fact that even without our agreement no country is going to hold on to Kashmir against the will of the Kashmiris”.

9. In his report to All Indian Congress Committee on 6 July 1951 as published in the Statesman, New Delhi on 9 July 1951, Pandit Nehru said, “Kashmir has been wrongly looked upon as a prize for India or Pakistan.  People seem to forget that Kashmir is not a commodity for sale or to be bartered.  It has an individual existence and its people must be the final arbiters of their future.  It is here today that a struggle is bearing fruit, not in the battlefield but in the minds of men”.

10. In a letter dated 11 September 1951, to the U.N. representative, Pandit Nehru wrote, “The Government of India not only reaffirms its acceptance of the principle that the question of the continuing accession of the state of Jammu and Kashmir to India shall be decided through the democratic method of a free and impartial plebiscite under the auspices of the United Nations but is anxious that the conditions necessary for such a plebiscite should be created as quickly as possible”.

11. As reported by Amrita Bazar Patrika Calcutta, on 2 January 1952, while replying to Dr. Mookerji’s question in the Indian Legislature as to what the Congress Government was going to do about one third of territory still held by Pakistan, Pandit Nehru said, it “is not the property of either India or Pakistan.  It belongs to the Kashmiri people.  When Kashmir acceded to India, we made it clear to the leaders of the Kashmiri people that we would ultimately abide by the verdict of their Plebiscite.  If they tell us to walk out, I would have no hesitation in quitting.  We have taken the issue to United Nations and given our word of honour for a peaceful solution.  As a great nation we cannot go back on it.  We have left the question for final solution to the people of Kashmir and we are determined to abide by their decision”.

12. In his statement in the Indian Parliament on 7 August 1952, Pandit Nehru said, “Let me say clearly that we accept the basic proposition that the future of Kashmir is going to be decided finally by the goodwill and pleasure of her people.  The goodwill and pleasure of this Parliament is of no importance in this matter, not because this Parliament does not have the strength to decide the question of Kashmir but because any kind of imposition would be against the principles that this Parliament holds.  Kashmir is very close to our minds and hearts and if by some decree or adverse fortune, ceases to be a part of India, it will be a wrench and a pain and torment for us.  If, however, the people of Kashmir do not wish to remain with us, let them go by all means.  We will not keep them against their will, however painful it may be to us.  I want to stress that it is only the people of Kashmir who can decide the future of Kashmir.  It is not that we have merely said that to the United Nations and to the people of Kashmir, it is our conviction and one that is borne out by the policy that we have pursued, not only in Kashmir but everywhere.  Though these five years have meant a lot of trouble and expense and in spite of all we have done, we would willingly leave if it was made clear to us that the people of Kashmir wanted us to go.  However sad we may feel about leaving we are not going to stay against the wishes of the people.  We are not going to impose ourselves on them on the point of the bayonet”.

13. In his statement in the Lok Sabha on 31 March 1955, as published in Hindustan Times New Delhi on 1 April 1955, Pandit Nehru said, ” Kashmir is perhaps the most difficult of all these problems between India and Pakistan.  We should also remember that Kashmir is not a thing to be bandied between India and Pakistan but it has a soul of its own and an individuality of its own.  Nothing can be done without the goodwill and consent of the people of Kashmir”.

14. In his statement in the Security Council while taking part in debate on Kashmir in the 765th meeting of the Security Council on 24 January 1957, the Indian representative Mr. Krishna Menon said, “So far as we are concerned, there is not one word in the statements that I have made in this council which can be interpreted to mean that we will not honour international obligations.  I want to say for the purpose of the record that there is nothing that has been said on behalf of the Government of India which in the slightest degree indicates that the Government of India or the Union of India will dishonour any international obligations it has undertaken”.

Revoking’ Article 370 A Step Towards Correcting Historical Wrongs


VIKRAM SOOD

It was inevitable. And about time too. This was expected. It was there in the BJP manifesto, just as years ago the BJP had promised in their manifesto they would test the nuclear bomb.

This time, the manifesto spoke about Articles 370 and 35A. Atal Bihari tried the insaniyat route in Kashmir but it did not work, primarily because of Pakistani intransigence. Pakistanis had assumed Vajpayee's offer was a sign of Indian exhaustion and weakness. Narendra Modi also tried reconciliation. They were both wrong.

It was time, therefore, to set historical wrongs right.

The Pakistani reaction on amendments to the Indian Constitution are out of place but along the expected lines.

The irony is that a Muslim country responsible for killing the largest number of Muslims in the region – from Baramulla to East Pakistan, from Kashmir to Afghanistan, and in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Karachi and Sindh, and even Punjab – is now shedding crocodile tears for Kashmiris.

It dare not say a word about Uighurs in China.

One can be absolutely certain that the Government of India has factored in Pakistan’s knee-jerk reaction.


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Besides, what will Imran Khan tell his 40-50,000 jihadis, whose existence he grandly admitted to Trump? They must be given some employment and the Pakistan army has to be saved. So, the rest of us too should show spine and get ready. Not being alarmist, just practical.

For years, one has argued that Kashmir is an internal matter and we should not talk to Pakistan about it. They have no locus standi any more than that of an armed intruder who has entered your house.

And strong governments do not talk to terrorists or their masters till they have overpowered them. Once a government shows spine, terrorists tend to fade away.


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Also Read : Article 370 ‘Revoked’: How Central Laws Will Impact Kashmiris

Article 370 Was Not The Glue

Only this government could have acted the way it did. It required courage and determination. The INC and its eloquent speakers are waffling inanities while the leadership is stunned into silence.

Some of the younger and saner elements of the party have seen the writing on the wall, while others remain illiterate. So be it.


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However, one politician was perceptive and smart. The day the Indian Air Force hit Balakot last September, he realised things are going to change with this government. In an interview the next day, he remarked, “Tinkering with Article 370 or 35A will be disastrous for Jammu and Kashmir.” That politician was Omar Abdullah and it was meant to be a warning.

We have had the occasion to listen to the sharp debate by the young MP Jamyang Tsering Namgyal. He informed the Parliament and the rest of India of the religious, social, economic, and political discrimination that the Rajas of Srinagar carried out against Ladakhis all these years.

Clearly, Article 370 was not the glue that kept Jammu and Kashmir with India. It was a tap that flowed unchecked and enormously enriched the few – politicians, bureaucrats, businessmen, separatists, terrorists, all.


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This myth was perpetuated with considerable assistance from dreamy-eyed liberals in the rest of the country. Previous governments conveniently chose to forget that Article 370 is listed under Part XXI of the Constitution – “Temporary, Transitional and Special Provisions”.

Also Read : Article 370 revocation: Imran Khan warns of another Pulwama

Like previous governments treated illegal squatters or illegal constructions by pretending this was not happening, they let Article 370 appear to be a permanent provision, which allowed permanent misuse and abuse. How else would one explain that the average Kashmiri is still among the poorest despite the fact that for years Jammu and Kashmir has been getting 10 times the per capita subsidy of Uttar Pradesh?

Neutrality Won’t Do

As expected, Imran Khan fumed and threatened more Pulwamas, thereby admitting that the Pulwama terror attack was their act. He needs to be reminded of Balakot. If the world wants India’s actions to right a wrong not to escalate, it is incumbent upon them – including Trump, Putin and Xi along with Macron and Johnson – to ensure that Pakistan does nothing that invites retaliation from India. An anodyne statement will not be enough.

Pakistan must be made to realise and accept that it has been the original provocateur and it is only now that India has begun to react.


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The anomalous inequities and incongruities of the horrendous Article 370 have been removed. The discriminatory and inequitable 35A has been thrown into the dustbin. The state had its own flag, their Assembly’s term was for six years, the RTI and RTE did not operate in the state. If a Kashmiri woman married anyone who was not a permanent resident of the state of J&K, she would lose her permanent residence status too.

Also Read : JD-U's U-turn on Article 370, says now supports it

Pakistan has no reason to help India, because until recently, it found the prevailing situation to its advantage. An adversarial stance with India has suited the Pakistan army so far; it kept the rest of the world concerned about the nuclear dimensions of this problem that Pakistan exaggerated periodically. Those who think that talks with Pakistan will solve this, live in their own make-believe cuckoo-land.

Pakistan Not Concerned About Kashmiris

Pakistan is not concerned with the Kashmiri people – if it were, it would have invited them to cross over on humanitarian Islamic grounds. They are interested in the territory and the water. Pakistani generals may indulge in a great deal of grandstanding – pampered in the past by the US military and the CIA – but they are not daft.

They are not going to start a nuclear war for some territory about the size of all their farms in the fertile Indus basin and Okara farms for a minuscule Muslim population that does not speak their language and is smaller than that in Balochistan, whom they subjugate ruthlessly. The generals are also not likely to risk losing all of Pakistan in a nuclear war.

Finally, any suggestion for talks with Pakistan while terror continues legitimises Pakistani terrorist activity in India and is counterproductive. The only dialogue can be over Pakistani sponsorship of terror in India.

It is time we developed our own response that makes Pakistan’s rulers pay a price they cannot afford. Since we have inalienable rights to Kashmir, we should stop being defensive about this, and stop making magnanimity a foreign policy virtue.

(The author is the former head of India's foreign intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing, and an advisor to the Observer Research Foundation, an independent public policy think tank in New Delhi.)


https://www.thequint.com/voices/opinion/repealing-art-370-a-step-towards-correcting-historical-wrongs

ఎవరూ ఊహించనంత తొందరగా కాశ్మీర్ సమస్యకి ముగింపు పలకడానికి కారణం ఏమిటే ?

ఎవరూ ఊహించనంత తొందరగా కాశ్మీర్ సమస్యకి ముగింపు పలకడానికి కారణం ఏమిటే ? BJP మేనిఫెస్టో లో ఉన్న అంశమే! అందుకే ఈ ఘాతుకానికి పాల్పడ్డది అని ఖాంగీ ,కమ్మీ ,తుకుడే బాచ్ ల హాహాకారాలు. కొంత మంది మేతావులు ఇంకో అడుగు ముందుకేసి ప్రజాభిప్రాయం తీసుకోవక్కరలేదా అంటూ ఊళలు. కానీ ....విషయం వేరే ఉంది.
1. గత వారం పాకిస్తాన్ ప్రధాని ఇమ్రాన్ ఖాన్ USA లో మూడు రోజుల పర్యటన చేసిన సంగతి తెలిసిందే. అమెరికా పాకిస్తాన్ మీద విరుచుకుపడుతున్నది అన్నదీ తెలిసిందే.మరి ఇంత హఠాత్తుగా ట్రంప్,ఇమ్రాన్ ల సమావేశం ఎందుకు ? పాకిస్తాన్ కి ఇచ్చే సైనిక,ఆర్ధిక సహాయం 2016 లోనే నిలిపివేసింది అమెరికా. మీరు ఉగ్రవాదులని అణిచే వరకూ ఆర్ధిక సహాయం పునరుద్హరించే ప్రసక్తే లేదు US సెనేట్ కూడా తేల్చి చెప్పింది. మరి ఈ అత్యవసర సమావేశం దేని గురుంచి ?

2. ఆఫ్ఘానిస్తాన్ మీద CIA,ఆర్మీ రెండూ కలిసి ఒక సంయుక్త నివేదిక ఇచ్చాయి అధ్యక్షుడు ట్రంఫ్ కి. ఆ నివేదిక సారాంశం ఏమిటంటే ఇన్నేళ్ళ సైనిక చర్య తో ఆఫ్ఘన్ లో పరిస్థితులు అదుపులోకి రాలేదు. ఇకముందు కూడా వస్తుంది అని అనుకోవడం లేదు. 80 వ దశకంలో అప్పటి సోవియట్ లాగే మన కధ ఉండబోతున్నది. తాలిబన్ లని అంతమొందించడం ,ఆఫ్ఘన్ లో శాంతి ని స్థాపించడం కుదరదు. కాబట్టి తాలిబాన్ నేతలతో చర్చలు జరిపి ఒక అంగీకారానికి వస్తే ఆఫ్ఘన్ నుండి మన సైన్యాన్ని వెనక్కి రప్పించవచ్చు. ముందు ముందు సైనిక చర్యలకి మన డబ్బు వృధా చేయడం ,సైనికులని కోల్పోవడం జరుగుతుంది. పైగా అమెరికన్ ప్రజానీకంలో ఇతర దేశాల రక్షణ కోసం అమెరికన్ సైనికులు ఎందుకు చనిపోవాలి అన్న అసంతృప్తి నానాటికీ పెరిగిపోతున్నది. ఏ విధంగా చూసినా ఆఫ్ఘన్లో మన సైనికులు ఉండడం ఇక ముందు కుదరదు కాబట్టి వేగంగా మన సైనికులని వెనక్కి రప్పించండి.
3.మరి అమెరికన్ సైనికులని వెనక్కి రప్పించాలంటే తీసుకోవాల్సిన చర్యలు ఏమిటీ ? ఏముందీ ! పాకిస్తాన్ ISI కి తాలిబాన్ నేతలతో సత్సంబంధాలు ఉన్నాయి. కాదు ISI ఏమి చెప్తే అదే చేస్తారు తాలిబన్ నాయకులు.పాకిస్తాన్ ని మధ్యవర్తిగా పెట్టి తాలిబాన్ నేతలు,ఆఫ్ఘన్ ప్రభుత్వ పెద్దలతో ఒక అంగీకారానికి ఒప్పించి మన సైనికులని అక్కడ నుండి రప్పించాలి.  ఈ మొత్తం పధకానికి పాకిస్తాన్ మధ్యవర్తిగా ఉండి పని పూర్తిచేయాలి.
4.ఇప్పటికీ ఆఫ్ఘనిస్తాన్ లో మొత్తం ప్రాంతం అక్కడి ప్రభుత్వ అధీనం లో లేదు. కొన్ని ప్రాంతాలు తాలిబన్ ఆధిపత్యంలోనే ఉన్నాయి. తాలిబన్ అధీనంలో ఉన్న ప్రాంతాలని వాళ్ళే పరిపాలిస్తారు. ప్రభుత్వ అధీనంలో ఉన్న ప్రాంతం అలానే ఉంటుంది. బదులుగా ప్రభుత్వ కార్యాలయాలు,ఆఫ్ఘన్ సైనిక స్థావరాల మీద ఆత్మాహుతి దాడులు చేయకూడదు తాలిబాన్ లు. ఇదీ ఒప్పందం. దీనిని అమలుచేయాల్సిన బాధ్యత పాకిస్తాన్ ది.
5.ఆఘమేఘాల మీద ఇమ్రాన్ అమెరికా వెళ్ళింది ఇందుకే. రాచ మర్యాదలు లేవు ఒక దేశ అధ్యక్షుడు అమెరికాలో అడుగుపెడితే. చాలా లో ప్రొఫైల్ మైంటైన్ చేశాడు ఇమ్రాన్. ఫేస్బుక్,twittar లలో ఇమ్రాన్ మీద ట్రోల్లింగ్ జరిగింది.అడుక్కు తినడానికి వచ్చే వాడికి ఘనస్వాగతం ఉండదు అంటూ. కానీ ఇదంతా అమెరికా కనుసన్నలలోనే ఒక పధకం ప్రకారం జరిగింది. ఎక్కడా ప్రచారానికి నోచుకోని ఒక విషయం ఉంది. ఇమ్రాన్ అమెరికన్ పాకిస్తానీలతో ఒక స్టేడియం లో సమావేశం అయ్యాడు పెట్టుబడుల కోసం. 10 వేల మంది హాజరయ్యారు ఆ సమావేశానికి. చిత్రం ఏమిటంటే ఈ సమావేశం విషయం కానీ ,దాని తాలూకు ఫోటోలు కానీ ఎక్కడా బయటికి రాకుండా జాగ్రత్త పడ్డారు అమెరికన్ అధికారులు.
6.ఇమ్రాన్ ,ట్రంప్ సమేవేశం కూడా చాలా సాదా సీదాగా జరిగినట్లు సీన్ క్రియేట్ చేశారు. ఇమ్రాన్ ట్రంఫ్ ప్రతిపాదనకి ఒప్పుకున్నాడు. ముందే సమాచారం ఉంది కాబట్టి ఎక్కువ సేపు తర్జన భర్జనలు జరగలేదు. మరి మధ్యవర్తిత్వం చేసినందుకు బ్రోకరేజ్ చార్జీలు ఇవ్వరా ? ఎందుకివ్వరూ ? అమెరికా ఇచ్చిన F-16 విమానాలకి స్పేర్ పార్టుల కొరత తీవ్రంగా ఉంది.ఎంతలా అంటే బాలకోట్ దాడుల తరువాత 80  F -16 లలో కేవలం ఒక స్క్వాడ్రన్ అంటే 16 విమానాలు మాత్రమె యుద్ధానికి సిద్ధంగా ఉన్నాయి. అందుకే మళ్ళీ భారత్ దాడులు చేస్తే ఉన్న 16 విమానాలు కూడా ధ్వంసం అయితే మొత్తానికే చేతులు ఎత్తేయాలి అని 4  నెలలు తమ ఎయిర్ స్పేస్ ని మూసేసింది పాకిస్తాన్.మొత్తం F -16 ఫ్లీట్ ని ఆఫ్ఘనిస్తాన్ సరిహద్దుల్లోని వైమానిక స్తావరాలకి తరలించింది.
7.మొత్తం 1.3 బిలియన్ డాలర్ల విలువ చేసే F -16 స్పేర్ పార్టుల కోసం ఆర్ధిక సహాయం చేయడానికి ఒప్పుకుంది అమెరికా. బోనస్ గా 2016 వరకూ ఇస్తూ వస్తున్న ఆర్ధిక సహాయం కూడా మళ్ళీ పునరుద్హరించడానికి ఒప్పుకుంది .సంతోషాన్ని బయటపడకుండా పాకిస్తాన్ జాగ్రత్త పడ్డది.
8. జరుగుతున్న పరిణామాల్ని ఎప్పటికప్పుడు రహస్యంగా సేకరిస్తున్నాడు మన అజిత్ ధోవల్ . ప్రమాద ఘంటికలు మొగబోతున్నాయి అని అత్యవసరంగా ప్రధాని మోడీ ,అమిత్ షా లతో భేటీ అయ్యాడు అజిత్ దోవల్. BJP వాగ్దానం ప్రకారం ఆర్టికల్ 370 ని రద్దు చేయాలి. కానీ అది 2020 లో చేయాలి. కానీ పరిస్థితులు అప్పటిదాకా మనకి అనుకూలంగా ఉండవు. ఎందుకు ? ఆఫ్ఘన్ ,తాలిబాన్ ల మధ్య ఒప్పందం జరిగిపోతుంది ఎందుకంటే అమెరికా కూడా ఆఫ్ఘన్ ప్రభుత్వ పెద్దలకి ఎప్పుడో చెప్పేసారు మేము మీకు ఇంక ఎక్కువరోజు లు రక్షణ ఇవ్వలేము అని. ఆఫ్ఘన్ ప్రభుత్వానికి వేరే దారి లేదు. శాంతి ఒప్పందం జరిగితే తాలిబాన్ తీవ్రవాదుల కార్యకలాపాలు ఆగిపోతాయి. ఇప్పటివరకూ ఆయుధాలు పట్టుకొని తిరిగిన తాలిబాన్ లకి పని ఉండదు. సో వాళ్ళని పాక్ ఆక్రమిత కాశ్మీర్ లో ఉంచి రోజువారీ దాడులు చేయడానికి ISI ముందే ఒప్పించింది ,పైగా అమెరికా నుండి సైనిక సాయం, డాలర్లు ఇబ్బడి ముబ్బడిగా వచ్చి పడతాయి . దేనికీ కొరత ఉండదు. కాశ్మీర్ ని అల్ల కల్లోలం చేయడానికి పుష్కలంగా డబ్బు,ఆయుధాలు ,తాలిబాన్ లు ఉంటారు. ఈ సారి ఏదన్నా జరిగితే అమెరికా పాకిస్తాన్ కి అండగా ఉంటుంది ,లేకపోతె శాంతి ఒప్పందానికి తూట్లు పొడిచి ఆఫ్ఘన్ ప్రభుత్వం మీద దాడులు చేయిస్తుంది పాకిస్తాన్,అప్పటికే అమెరికా సైని కులు వెళ్ళిపోయి ఉంటారు కనుక మొత్తం ఆఫ్ఘనిస్తాన్ తాలిబాన్ చేతుల్లోకి వెళ్ళిపోతుంది. ఇన్నేళ్ళు అమెరికా ఏం ఒరగబెట్టింది అంటూ అంతర్జాతీయంగా విమర్శలు వస్తాయి. సో అమెరికాకి పాకిస్తాన్ ని సమర్ధించడం మినహా వేరే దారి లేదు.
9. ఇదంతా జరిగాకా 370 ఆర్టికల్ ని రద్దు చేస్తే 1947 లో జరిగినట్లు అదే తరహాలో పశ్చిమ కాశ్మీర్ నుండి ఆజాద్ కాశ్మీర్ పోరాట యోధులుగా తాలిబాన్ తీవ్రవాదులు సరిహద్దులు దాటి భారత్ లోకి చొరబడి విధంసం చేయొచ్చు దానికి పాకి సైన్యం ,ISI వెన్ను దన్నుగా ఉంటాయి పైగా వాళ్ళంతా కాశ్మీర్ విముక్తి కోసం పోరాడుతున్న యోధులుగా ప్రపంచాన్ని నమ్మిస్తుంది పాకిస్తాన్.  ఇవన్నీ జరగకుండా ఉండాలంటే ఇప్పుడే ఆపరేషన్ కాశ్మీర్ ని అమలుచేయాలి . దోవల్ చెప్పినదాన్లో ఏవీ అతిశయోక్తులు లేవు.
10. యాక్షన్ ప్లాన్ రెడీ అయిపొయింది. ఇమ్రాన్ అమెరికా నుండి ఆనందంగా తిరిగి వచ్చిన రోజే చక చకా ప్లాన్ అమలు చేశారు మోడీ,అమిత్ షా ,అజిత్ దోవల్ లు.  అటు ట్రంప్ కి ,ఇటు ISI కి దిమ్మ తిరిగి పోయే సమాధానం ఇచ్చారు. UAPA [Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act ] ఇప్పుడు కాశ్మీర్ లో కూడా అమలవుతుంది.అంటే ఎవరన్నా దేశ విచ్చిన్నకర తీవ్రవాదులతో ఫోన్ లో మాట్లాడినా , లేదా సంబంధిత రుజువు చేసే ఏ ఆధారం దొరికినా వెంటనే అరెస్ట్ చేసి వాళ్ళ ఆస్తులని స్వాధీనం చేసుకోవచ్చు.  
11. ఇప్పుడు అమెరికాని ,పాకిస్తాన్ ని వేధిస్తున్నవి రెండు ప్రశ్నలు. 1.అమెరికా : పాకిస్తాన్ అనుకున్నట్లుగా తాలబాన్ లని శాంతి ఒప్పందానికి ఒప్పిస్తుందా ? 2.ఇప్పుడు శాంతి ఒప్పందానికి తాలిబాన్ నాయకులని ఒప్పిస్తే తరువాత ఖాళీగా ఉండే తీవ్రవాదులని తను భరించగలదా? ఖాళీగా ఉండేవాళ్ళు ఊరుకోకుండా తమ దేశంలో అల్లర్లకి ప్రయత్నిస్తే ?
12. ఒక మొనగాడు భద్రతా సలహాదారుగా ఉంటె ఎలా ఉంటుందో అటు అమెరికాకి ,ఇటు పాకిస్తాన్  కి సినిమా చూపించాడు అజిత్ దోవల్,దర్శక ,నిర్మాతలు మోదీజీ ,అమిత్ షా లు ! సినిమా సూపర్ డూపర్ హిట్