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Showing posts from December 7, 2008


B.RAMAN The pressure on Pakistan from the US and other Western countries to act firmly against the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and its political wing called the Jammat-ud-Dawa (JUD) is quite strong not only because of their anxiety to prevent an Indian military retaliation for the Mumbai terrorist strike of November 26,2008, but also because of the anger in Israel and the Jewish diaspora in the West over the brutal massacre of eight Israeli nationals ---two them with dual US nationality--- and a Jewish person from Mexico by the LET terrorists in the Narriman House of Mumbai.. 2. Concerns of Western businessmen, with business interests in India, over the security of their life and property have also contributed to the Western pressure on Pakistan, which is more intense this time than it was after the joint attack on the Indian Parliament launched by the LET and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) on December 13,2001. 3. Under this pressure, Pakistan has ostensibly acted against the JUD, thr

QUOTE OF THE DAY : Vikram Sood

Why IB and RAW should not be merged "This is unworkable and ridiculous for several reasons. The two require totally different disciplines. Intelligence is a function of area, language and regional expertise and of operational skills honed over years of practical experience. It is not a function that can be professionally performed by birds of passage. External intelligence requires different skills in language, regions and issues. Its method of collection is different as it has to work in hostile surroundings, against the laws of the country to which its officers are assigned. Internal intelligence operates on home ground in accordance with local laws and has the backing of the state. The two functions are not interchangeable. Besides, no democratic country has one intelligence service. "

Bringing Mumbai perpetrators to book top priority: Negroponte

New Delhi (IANS): Asking Pakistan to "act forcefully" against terrorist outfits, the US on Friday said it was cooperating with India in probing the Mumbai terror strikes and underlined the “responsibility” of the international community in bringing the perpetrators of the attack to book. “We think it is imperative that these attacks be thoroughly investigated and we think it is also imperative that those responsible for perpetrating these attacks be brought to account,” visiting US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte told reporters here. “So the effort at the moment is concentrated on investigating these attacks and bringing those responsible to account,” said Negroponte, who arrived here Friday on a day-long visit, after visiting Islamabad. “We're cooperating in this effort, obviously the government of India is in the lead, but all of our diplomatic partners have a responsibility to contribute to this effort,” Negroponte said. His remarks reflected a growin

Banning Jamaat-ud-Dawa not sufficient: Germany

New Delhi (PTI): Germany on Friday said that banning of Jamaat-ud-Dawa, believed to be behind the Mumbai attacks, is "not sufficient" and Pakistan must act to prevent further terror strikes. German Home Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who held talks with Home Minister P Chidambaram and National Security Adviser M K Narayanan, said there was evidence to show that the Islamic terror network behind the Mumbai attacks had origin in Pakistan. Schaeuble, who arrived here on Friday morning for discussing cooperation with India in dealing with terrorism, said the Pakistan was being encouraged by the international community to "cope" and "fight" terrorism as it is a threat to it too. When asked whether banning of Jamaat-ud-Dawa, which is a frontal organisation of Lashkar-e-Taiba, by Pakistan was enough, Schaeuble said "it is a right thing but may be not sufficient." Noting that " forbidding an organisation is one thing and to avoid crimes is another

British and Saudi Intelligence Recruit Terrorists In British Mosques

Increase DecreaseDecember 10, 2008 (LPAC)--The British think-tank Policy Exchange produced an exhaustive and fair-minded report, "The Hijacking of British Islam; How Extremist Literature Is Subverting Mosques in the UK," in 2007. An initial review shows how the whole framework of facts-on-the-ground in Britain, proves in the starkest terms that the British Muslim terrorists found in Chechnya, Bosnia, Afghanistan, India and Pakistan are no coincidence, but the result of the fact that British and Saudi intelligence are up to their elbows in cooperation in recruiting and deploying them in Britain. First of all, the great majority of British Muslims, over two thirds of an estimated 1.8 million (half born in Britain), are of South Asian origin, mostly Pakistani, Bangladeshi or Indian. But the outside financing and control of mosques, is much more Saudi than it is South Asian. Indeed, under Saudi financing and control, the complexion of religious belief of Britons of Pakistani or

Fight For India

09.12.2008 Andrei VOLODIN Following the coordinated terror attacks in India’s financial center of Mumbai, which were called “carnage” in the local media, Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev paid an official visit to Delhi on 4-5 December. India`s meticulous journalists praised Mr. Medvedev`s calmness and his decision to stay at “Sheraton Maurya” hotel, while the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who had visited Delhi ahead of the Russian-Indian summit, preferred the residency of the US Ambassador to India David Mulford. What`s the outcome of the Russia-India talks in Delhi? 1. The sides signed a joint Declaration, in which among other things they emphasized “an importance to implement an integral reform of the international financial and economic system in order to adjust it to new realia of global economy”. Russia and India announced their preparedness to “aim at the establishment of a fairer economic world order, based on the principles of multipolarity, supremacy of law, e

Nuclear parity threatened

11:30 | 12/ 12/ 2008 MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti military correspondent Ilya Kramnik) - The 1991 Soviet-U.S. Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) expires December 5 next year. This brings to the fore the problem of reducing nuclear arsenals and the monitoring of the process because the 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT), which is valid through 2012, does not provide for irreversible reductions and does not establish a permanent mutual verification mechanism. The 1991 treaty, which entered into force in late 1994, limits the sides' strategic offensive potential to 1,600 carriers and 6,000 warheads. START II, the successor of START I, banned the use of MIRVs on ICBMs but it was never validated. In 2004, Russia officially withdrew from START II in response to the U.S. pullout from the 1972 ABM Treaty in 2002. The latest nuclear disarmament agreement, SORT, limits the sides' nuclear arsenal to 1,700-2,200 warheads each. It does not specify how many warhea

Top 5 Intelligence Analysis Methods: Social Network Analysis (#3)

Thursday, December 11, 2008 SourcesAndMethods Part 1 -- Introduction Part 2 -- What Makes A Good Method? Part 3 -- Bayesian Analysis (#5) Part 4 -- Intelligence Preparation Of The Battlefield/Environment (#4) Social Network Analysis (SNA) is fundamentally about entities and the relationships between them. As a result, this method has a number of variations within the intelligence community ranging from techniques such as association matrices through link analysis charts right up to the validated mathematical models. It is most commonly used as a way to picture a network, however, and is rarely used in the more formal way envisioned by the sociologists who created the method. In other words, while SNA is a very powerful method, intelligence professionals rarely take advantage of its full potential.Because it is primarily a visual method, most analysts (and the decisionmakers they support) immediately grasp the value of the method. Likewise, some variation of SNA will likely wor

The neo-Taliban: A year on

The success of a reinvigorated Afghan insurgency – albeit qualified by overstretch and internal tensions – guarantees that 2009 will be another tough year of combat, writes Antonio Giustozzi for openDemocracy. By Antonio Giustozzi 2008 has seen a marked worsening of the security situation in Afghanistan, both in terms of the number of incidents and in terms of the geographical spread of the insurgency. The number of violent incidents has increased by about 50 percent on previous years (although statistics vary depending on the source); while the government has de facto lost control over two provinces close to the capital Kabul (Wardak and Logar). In some northern provinces - most notably Kunduz - the insurgency is beginning to represent a serious threat . Indeed, clear signs of insurgent infiltration exist in almost all the northern provinces: Only Samangan and Panjshir provinces appear to remain completely free of violent activities. In central Afghanistan, Bamiyan is only margina

Kuwait's political morass

12 Dec 2008 With the emirate embroiled in its latest political fiasco, Kuwait's regionally important reform process is under severe strain, Dominic Moran writes for ISN Security Watch. By Dominic Moran in Tel Aviv for ISN Security Watch Kuwait has again plunged into political crisis with efforts underway to reconstitute the government, after the cabinet tendered its resignation over parliamentary efforts to hold the prime minister to account for alleged misdeeds. Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, who retains full executive authority in the reformed Kuwaiti governance structure, demurred before deciding to accept the cabinet's resignation. His call for the reappointment of outgoing prime minister Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammad al-Sabah almost certainly presages further conflict between the parliamentary opposition and government. While the political crisis peaked with parliamentary efforts to question the prime minister on his alleged mismanagement, and for allowing

Terrorism & The Business World

by B. Raman Terrorists target human beings---combatants and non-combatants (civilians) --- as well as capabilities---economic and strategic. 2. Till the 1980s, they focused more on targeting human beings. Targeting of capabilities----which may or may not cause human fatalities---- came into vogue in the 1980s, when the Irish Republican Army (IRA) carried out explosions in London's financial district. 3. Targeting of capabilities does not create the same kind of public revulsion against the terrorists as the targeting of human beings does. Whereas the after-effects of the targeting of human beings remain localised in the area where they were targeted, the impact of the targeting of capabilities has a ripple effect far beyond the area where the act of terrorism was carried out. 4. The 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US homeland had a ripple effect right across the world because of the increase in insurance premia for various business transactions and dislocation of internationa


Raul Caruso Istituto di Politica Economica Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore di Milano Abstract: This short paper aims to find an empirical evidence that al Qaeda behaves as a contest organizer rewarding an indivisible prize Рnamely, official membership and economic rewards Рto candidate extremists groups. Would-be terrorists must then compete with each other to prove their commitment and ability. Hence to maximize their own probability of winning the prize, each group (maximizes its effort) tries to make attacks at least equally destructive as the foregoing attacks. The testable implication is that: the number of victims must depend upon the number of victims of past attacks. Resulting evidence confirms the hypothesis. At the same time, results show that al Qaeda-style terrorist activity depends also upon grievance for poverty and socio-economic conditions. DOWNLOAD

The Growing Importance of Civilians in Armed Conflict

This policy brief argues that civilians play an increasingly important and complex role in armed conflicts. At the same time, the author states, the lines between 'civilians' and 'combatants' are becoming blurred. The brief postulates that how states and multilateral institutions respond to these challenges is of great importance for the legitimacy and efficiency of their stabilization efforts in crisis areas . © 2008 Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich Download: English (PDF · 3 pages · 293 KB) Author: Andreas Wenger Series: CSS Analyses in Security Policy Volume: 3 Issue: 45 Publisher: Center for Security Studies (CSS), Zurich, Switzerland

Mumbai attackers used sophisticated technology

International herald Tribune By Jeremy Kahn Published: December 9, 2008 MUMBAI: The terrorists who struck this city in November stunned the authorities not only with their use of sophisticated weaponry but also with their comfort with modern technology. The terrorists navigated across the Arabian Sea to Mumbai from Karachi, Pakistan, with the help of a global positioning system handset. While under way, they communicated using a satellite phone with those in Pakistan believed to have coordinated the attacks. They recognized their targets and knew the most direct routes to reach them in part because they had studied satellite photos from Google Earth. And, perhaps most significantly, throughout the three-day siege at two luxury hotels and a Jewish center, the Pakistani-based handlers communicated with the attackers using Internet phones that complicate efforts to trace and intercept calls. Those handlers, who were apparently watching the attacks unfold live on television, were abl

World blind to nurseries of terror

Barry Rubin The shame is not India’s but the world’s that a democratic, law-abiding country can be attacked by a neighbour with terrorism and receive no strong international support India’s Government faces difficult choices and no one should interfere in that hard process. Still, it is worth describing the alternatives New Delhi must ponder and what it might ask the rest of the world to do. First, of course, no one should criticise India or draw conclusions too quickly. The Indian Government will investigate and confer with friendly states. An official conclusion will be reached. Rumours and newspaper articles are not sufficient: The security and intelligence forces must examine the evidence; Government must speak. What is most interesting is the conclusion that elements in Pakistan were involved. This does not necessarily mean that the Pakistani Government officially ordered the attack or knew about it. The Indian Government, however, has made the following points: # Pakistan ho

China And The Mumbai Bloodshed

By Bhaskar Roy In unison with the leaders of the international community, the Chinese leaders – President, Premier and Foreign Minister condoled the awful hurt suffered by the people of Mumbai in a 60 hour ordeal starting November 26 night. The line was clear. Each of the leaders from President Hu Jintao down words reiterated that China condemned all forms of terrorism. Some indications are, however, now coming out of China that the Beijing leaders are also trying to play the Mumbai massacre to political, diplomatic and strategic advantage against India. In the last several years China formed the doctrine opposing the “Three Evils”, that is, “terrorism, extremism, separatism”. Of course, the Chinese leaders have their problems in these areas. Muslim Uighur separatists in Xinjiang-Uighur Autonomous Region (XAR) have never accepted Chinese sovereignty. They have retaliated with militant attacks against Chinese forces. The Tibetans are not demanding independence or a separate state.